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FOMC Does Nothing, Notes Inflation Threat - Full Redline Comparison To January

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Expectations going in were apparently of no material change likely with some increase in dissents. It seems the market is initially disappointed by the Fed's lack of "we'll print 'til we die" comments as Bloomberg notes:

  • *FED SAYS STRAINS IN GLOBAL MARKETS `HAVE EASED'  BUT POSE RISKS
  • *FED SAYS OIL, GAS `WILL PUSH UP INFLATION TEMPORARILY'
  • *FED SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT `DECLINED NOTABLY,' REMAINS ELEVATED

Notably, economic "growth" has moved from modest to moderate, and inflation word count: 6.

Going in ES was +11pts at 1377, EUR 1.31 (weaker on day with USD modestly stronger on day), Gold/Silver/Oil unch, and Treasuries +3-4bps on the day (with 30Y at 3.21%).

Immediately after, Treasury yields higher and steeper, ES small down, USD stronger, Gold/Silver down pretty good.

Red-line comparison to the January statement below (pdf):

 

 

And for those who are sentimental about the good old days, here is a redline from the just released FOMC statement to that from March 2011.

 


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Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Mongo
Mongo's picture

Is that the FEDbot or the real FED?... can't make up the difference...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:27 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

TEMPORARY, TRANSITORY, EBBING INFLATION, BITCHEZ!

Let the consumer-led discretionary item demand destruction (unless it can be had on bad credit) rip higher, and bring in Big Government Sugar Daddy to backfill the craters (at a rate of about 46% deficit spending).

 

*Sorry for the shouting. FOMC-RedShield "baffle 'em with bullshit" days are exciting. /s

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:30 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

FED SAYS - We are going to keep jerking off and fudging the numbers across the board until Obama gets in for a second term

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

*FED SAYS STOLEN GOLDMAN SACHS ALGO HAS BEEN USEFUL FOR GROWTH

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Does it really matter? I think someone posted this but I think it needs to go viral... all those who stand for justice!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=5RU24M72TtM#!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

I stand for justice! Mother fucker status quo psychopath creeps who only care for yourself. Hey you fuck heads bankers who read this blog, your days are numbered. We will win in the future. Maybe not now, but we have your number.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"Eat your Melamine Peas & Pink Slimeburger while we make more Peace in the Middle East, and be sure to say something if you see something terroristy."

 

Sincerely,

 

Big Sis

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Not terroristy, days 'being in power' are numbered. Everyone, no matter how corrupt should have long full life, just not with power over direction of country.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

Well said, TIS.

All  bullish, bitchez.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:34 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@TiS

My question for Keynesians is why are we suppossed to forget the "Long Run" because we're all dead, but all bad policy consequences are "temporary"?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I don't know, but I highly advise everyone to not buy gasoline, food or anything else that's priced in correlation to commodities or oil right now, but rather, wait for 6 months to 2 years for the prices on these things to fall, based on The Bernank's forecasting acumen.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment greensnacks
greensnacks's picture

But i'm hungry

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:41 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Eat your iPadHD and wait it out like most people!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Sakka
Sakka's picture

There is an app. for that!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:30 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

That's the real fed, just like the muppets on sesame street, but doing hand jobs above and below the stage. After the meeting they pick who gets all the creampie.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

For them to admit this that means inflation will be very very hard on all of us.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Inaction... what a tool.

Any dissents?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:47 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

There'll be perceived inaction until perceived velocity.

That is all.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Buy gold.  They are still in denial.  And it will revalue upwards even if they weren't.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Hansel
Hansel's picture

Selling gold on FOMC days is tradition.

-Sincerely,

The Fed's PR Team

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I know.  That is why I waited.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:10 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Pt>Au even on the bid now

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, getting rid of other countries dead weight and putting that storage space in the basement to better use :)

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

They will stop at nothing to keep the ponzi going. For anyone with at least 1/2 a brain that means buy all the PM's you can. I am not interested at how high the price of gold goes because it means nothing to me in the long scheme of things. The DOW could go to 36,000 for all I care because that will mean gold is at least $6,000/oz and silver is $250/oz. Anyone holding ponzi money and ponzi stocks will see what happens when the music stops......

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

All the volatility (and downward price action) is in gold and PMs.  Stocks just sleepwalk higher and higher.  Not the way it's supposed to be.

For now it's almost like stocks are behaving more like money (stable store of value, rises with inflation) than gold is.  It's all so f***ed up.

Fuck you Bernanke!  (and Daimon, and Geithner, and Obama, and Blankfein, and ...)

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Dear FED. Which lie do YOU believe in? Doesn't matter. The market will NOT fall on a FED day. heh heh.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Transitorily bullish.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Oh good - inflation will be pushed up (further), but it will only be temporary. I was worried for a minute there.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Remember, inflation is a measure of change, so gas prices will increase to unaffordable levels and then stay there...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Good point. I suppose we should then be troubled by the fact that they didn't specify how much inflation lies ahead. Nah - the Bernank wouldn't steer us wrong!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

2% of course, or in plain english "flesh wound"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:52 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

It all adds up over time, however.

According to http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ , an item bought for $1.00 in 1913 now costs $22.89.

2,189.4% inflation over 100 years isn't so bad, is it?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

The very existence of this organization drives me nuts. Blatantly unconstitutional, incompetent, and a threat to productive citizens everywhere.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"FED SAYS OIL, GAS `WILL PUSH UP INFLATION TEMPORARILY'"

Well, that's a bit backward.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

They mean from here probably.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

Oil & Gas says that the Fed will push up inflation?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I think what he means is they plan to push gas prices so high you wont have money for anything else.. thus deflationary in the real world but unrelated to their hft algo driven paper markets which they will at the very least hold in check against any down side action.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

TEMPORARILY - until they crash down due to an orchestrated "flight to safety" event which will happen when the Fed wants it to happen.

Same as it ever was.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment hankwil74
hankwil74's picture

By the time they (Uncle Ben et al) actually consider inflation a risk, they're going to be about 3 years too late

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

What happened to the 15 minute inflation-stopping promise?

Has that been hyper-rehypothecated?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

So that big reversal in the VIX, where it opened gap down below the lower bollinger band and is now up on the day, that's nothing to be concerned about is it?  I mean, the party's still on, right?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

Brian about to hit buy button on AAPL   that is all they need to do.....

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment digalert
digalert's picture

ah ah ah bullshit!

excuse me

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment JuicyGrabs
JuicyGrabs's picture

Flash crash?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

So as we speak, the Fed's ridiculous 'admission' of 'temporary' 'inflation' sends PMs tanking and equities surging from already surgetastic levels.

Fuck 'em all!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Thank god inflation is only temporarly!!
Just like the employment numbers....

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment djsmps
djsmps's picture

Temporary is the new transitory.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Party like it's 1999 bitchez the Bernank has our back! Next stop dow 36,000 loaf of bread $100.00

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

The FED's boxed in . Reduced to babbling Obama talking points:)

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment JuicyGrabs
JuicyGrabs's picture

Likely headline: "Market turns negative after digesting lack of easing news from Fed".

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

If this is irrational exuberance then we only have to wait a few more years for a down tick.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Homo Erectus
Homo Erectus's picture

Word count of "inflation": 6

Word count of "temporary", "stable over the long run" and other crap: Zillions.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment LMAO
LMAO's picture

 

  • *FED SAYS OIL, GAS `WILL PUSH UP INFLATION TEMPORARILY'

Temporarily = Pre "The Iranian Heist"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Parabolic markets make for narrow doorways!

   *FED SAYS OIL, GAS `WILL PUSH UP INFLATION TEMPORARILY'     My comment to that is [SPR]... Tyler is exactly right about the October debt ceiling issues!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

phew so the gas price will be coming down thank god for that because I couldn't afford to go to work any longer.

edit: oh shit they're saying gas is to going to push inflation from here?  Well fuck fuck fuck at least I know I'm not suffering as bad as the Bernank no mob is going to come down to my house with pitchforks one night.  Sleep easy bud

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Do not fill your car with gas or do any grocery shopping at this time.

The prices will be much cheaper 6 months to 2 years from now, according to The Council of Elders, so wait until prices fall to drive or eat.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Council of Elders - who are they?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

Revised: prices will be higher but that base will help us achieve the target range and meet our 2nd mandate to help find you a job now that your company has a negative margin

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Fastback
Fastback's picture

How the F does the FED now, the price of oil is temporary? What an absolute bunch of BS! I f.......ing can't take this BS anymore! This market so so freaking dumb and broken it's pathetic. The only thing more pathetic is the people who are too stupid or dumb to actually not participate in it!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Because their masters at GS are long crude ........./s

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

FOMC, plunge in Gold is just starting. Watch TPTB crash it all over again.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:30 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Yes sir I hope they do, I hope they do, buy what you can

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Very soon.. they want to trap more paper gold bulls underwater first before they ramp minimum margin requirements then you get your downside swoon.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Just more of Uncle Ben's Converted Crap!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:30 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Bernank is back reading tea leaves again.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Entrails.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Stocks and gold are booming, housing stinks, unemployment is falling like glue and inflation iis a growing threat. Tsylot Rule calls for 2.05% Fed Funds Rate.

Fed Funds Announcement: Gold, Housing, Stocks, Inflation, Unemployment and the Taylor Rule

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/03/13/fed-funds-announcemen...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

Well God damn!  With the Fed now admitting inflation is temporary (and blaming it on oil, which is just a falling dollar) I can now safely go ALL IN buying everything I need to last the next 50 years here in the next 30 days hopefully.  Fuck you Bernank

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Forever Opposed to Material Change

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment joshdance
joshdance's picture

Tyler (or anybody), what software do you use to redline the two statements?  Very slick.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Y/Y statement changed from high oil prices are "transitory" to "temporay" .

I love goal seek Fed statement that justify its ridiclous monetary policy in an election year.

Looks like Fed will continue to enable Trillion Dollar US federal government deficits.

#booyah.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

I sense that bond investors are tip-toeing ever so slowly closer to the door. At some point soon, there will be a stampede for it because absolutely NOBODY is buying the Fed's bullshit about inflation being "transitory" or "temporary".

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I hope they widen the exit doors in preparation for the stampede, lest many will surely get trampled badly.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:34 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I'm sure glad they decided to put gold on sale again.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

just went long some chipolte mex grill, underwear-armor and buffalo hot wings, they seem to be no brainers given the increase in retail spending lately... i also want to buy more lulu lemon leotards co, but my broker says I am at my margin limit...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:37 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

ie., Bubbles Bernanke's verbal intervention last Wed via Hilsenrath was sufficient for now.

Bernanke must think of the world financial markets as his own little craps table, in which he gets to play endlessly with the economic welfare of the entire planet.

One day, he testifies before Congress that he's done for now with QE, then a few days later, he intervenes via the "voice" to keep the rally going following just ONE down day, and now, just a week later, he says, in effect, "no change".

The guy should be in prison, not the Mariner Eccles building!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

On a long enough timeline, everything is temporary.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Benjamin Glutton
Benjamin Glutton's picture

Bernanke..."It's not MY fault Bitchez!!!"

 

Fed steno..."...everyone laughed like they were on LSD."

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:41 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

Equity prices have now officially gone "full retard"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

The entire financial system has been "full retard" for the past 5 years and counting.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:30 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

It has always been retarded...  it's just that every once and a while it has to pass a standardized test.  Sometimes it even shows up drunk for the test in superman pajamas and cape.

[of course our solution is to try and make the test more retard friendly to keep the charade up as long as possible, but by now only retards can pass the thing]

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Was that big down stroke in he TLT the algos on a stop sweep and destroy mission or the beginning of the end of cheap money? Stay tuned.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

If you would just work hard and become a top level executive at Goldman Sachs, none of this would be a big deal. It's your fault for not being predatory or psychopathic enough.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

Gee it must be nice to live in the booming USA, in Canada contributions to retirement account retreated to 1970 levels

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

kinda confusing - gas prices pushing-up inflation?

We are exporting "our refined gasoline" by the boat loads. Why? Because american's refuse to pay ~ $3.75/gal,... whereas the U.S. doesn't tax the shit out of the [exempted cpi indicator? - lest we forget food?] fuel as do most foreign  countries/ continents, ie. europe. 

Something doesn't square here - we export to other countries and ignore our own. Do I have that right? Someone help me. 

Confused in the USSA

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment BillyTheBlade
BillyTheBlade's picture

If the price of oil and gas are already taken out of the basket of goods that the government uses to guage inflation, how do they justify that gas and oil will push up inflation? 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

the glory of having three sets of entry books carbon dated

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Presumably due to the effects the higher gas/oil prices will have on the prices of the 3 or 4 goods that the Fed does use to calculate inflation.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment BillyTheBlade
BillyTheBlade's picture

If the price of oil and gas are already taken out of the basket of goods that the government uses to guage inflation, how do they justify that gas and oil will push up inflation? 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

The Fed knows gas will retreat because the Fed directly sent the price of gas up.  The Fed and other agencies are controlling the whole mess now.  Stocks, bonds and commodities.  Trust me on this.  Every year or so, they want to try and try a little price push inflation into the system to see if they can get some stickiness in wage increases.  Can't do it for too long though or things slow up big time.  This is also the reason for QE delay.  They don't need it just now as price inflation from oil/gas is doing it's thing.  When they pull back and evaluate, look for QE3.  And because everyone thinks oil prices are market driven (ROFLO), they don't see this as Fed move to inflate so PMs don't price up.  As a result watch for some big smackdowns in PMs by TPTB so they have some wiggle room before QE3.

Based on everything presented on ZH, is there any doubt in anyone's mind here that our government has pulled out all the stops (via national security justification) to manipulate the ecnomy any way they see fit?  All the stops.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

They have adopted the Greenspan way of saying very little.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Funny how the Aud/spx correlation is non-existant. Oil and Gold aren't down that much today. One would think the Aud would have followed the move with more conviction today. Those soft PBoC #'s and shrinkage of Asian exports to the U.S. must be taking hold.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

Honestly, having watched this charade since 2008 and the recent developments where even a Greece bankruptcy with all CDS payouts ,etc does not seem to ignite GOLD's ass, while all other assets soar I will pronounce what many have already said here:

SELL GOLD Bitchez and bitchezsets, GOLD ain't going nowhere while western civilization keeps levitating paper. And when western civilation collapses, GOLD is a sure recipe for getting killed in a matter of days no matter how many guns you've got....

I ve been long gold PM's since 2009 and I am selling everything right now. I will concentrate on stocking cans, cigarretes, matches, blankets, tents and booze for when the collapse eventually happens.

In the mean time buy some pop corn and watch this horror movie get to the end.

Sayonara!!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

"economic "growth" has moved from modest to moderate"

What do these codings translated into clear language mean?

 



Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:17 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

Anyone putting all their eggs in PMs are going to be sorely disappointed.  The Central Banks and TPTB will do everything in their power to keep it smacked down.  That said, some percentage of assest in hard PMs, yes by all means.  There is ONE way PMs might go ballistic and that would be an economic war between far East (China, Russia, etc.) in an attempt to yank our reserve currency status.  It will probably happen in fits and starts and therefore probably not make gold go ballistic.

Other assets in your portfolio should include real estate (a small farm if you like) or modest rental property and a modest home for yourself.  Also (but I haven't made the plunge just yet myself) I think some stocks are going to have to be in the mix, as much as I hate to say it.  A slow inflation will increase the price of good company stocks just as surely as the price of the goods they make. 

I do not own any debt; like Taleb, that's a bubble that will be pricked and deflated at somepoint down the road I beliieve.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:23 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

It does not matter what the Fed says.  It's all a dog and pony show for the eleven people who are still listening.

They have a printing press going full bore.  That renders all the old indicators useless.

The Fed could walk up to the microphone, fart and give everyone the finger and it would not change the direction we are headed, ... although there might be some HFT algobots that would interpret it as bullish.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Monoki
Monoki's picture

 

ZH, Tyler et al who hide anonymously:

With all due respect and with thanks for some very informative posts, but if anyone acted on your the 3-yr bearish rants, not only have they missed out on a massive rally, but perhaps have gotten clipped on the short side.

Zero Hedge definitely has a bearish bias which all should take note.  Yes, ZH has some great posts, but it appears that Tyler and ZH literally prays for the worst, dying to be proven correct with a massive correction rather than trying to balance the risks to the rewards.

Say what you will about the bulls (I am NOT a long-term bull).  Say what you will about central bankers manipulating the markets and the algos exacerbating the situation on central bankers' coattails (I disdain both).  Say what you will about 'manipulated' and 'messaged' gov't statistics.  The fact of the matter is this:  US equities are up huge since 2009 despite the doomsday sayers' warnings.  In fact, if one were to take ZH with a grain of salt and went the very opposite direction of his ever-changing tones, you might have been rewarded:  the more bearish ZH is, it appears the greater the chance of an above market return.  ZH and the S&P might have the most precise inverse correlation I’ve seen (Tyler, how about sharing a graph of your screamingly bearish posts and the S&P 500).  Heck, you might even have the only negative beta: the more yourant, the more the S&P moves up.  What's sure is that you have negative alpha: go the opposite of your rants and returns are likely.

Tyler -- I can only call you by the name that which you hide behind -- thank you for your posts, but it's awfully apparent that you have a bias and remain anonymous for whatever (dark) reason.

Én vagyok Monoki. Én is magyar vagyok. ??????,? ????? ??? ??????. ? ???? ????.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Whatever you say, Hun. 

Those who took Tyler's actual advice, and bought gold and silver, noting that with monetization you can't short anything, have come out major winners.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Your post shows you really don't understand the situation very well.

For starters you still think there is a market ...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:35 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

1.)  Anonymity forces you to reply to the content rather than ignore it and dismiss the author for whatever reason you conjure up.  It is thus good.

2.)  I have seen perhaps half a dozen posts wherein Tyler et al recommend a convergence trade or two, typically in the FX markets.  That's it.  The rest is informative only.  In fact, if you applied the information you got from ZH to your trading activities, taking into account your past experience and future expectations, you would realize that you can often predict moments of intervention and the timing of CB monetizing, making a lucrative profit convertible to hard assets.

On the other hand, if you're a simpleton and simply interpret discussions of reality as "news bad, sell sell sell get 3X short," well, you deserve to go broke.  I would go so far as to say that while you may read some articles here, you likely don't read for comprehension.  Often times Tylers will point out how the situation is deteriorating and then in the very next breath correctly predict the coming intervention.  Interpreting that as being "wrong" because the S hasn't HTF is beyond disingenuous.

In the end, if you trade simply based on what other people say you will lose money, period, full stop.

P.S. What's your name and address, and place of employment?  You seem to abhor anonymity, so fess up.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Monoki is right, at least, about the S&P/stock market - the right bet was to go very long in March 2009, when the Chief Stock Picker told us to do so, and you'd have done very well, with a couple of good scares thrown in (like last summer's dive to low 10K DOW). However the question is - is this real, and more precisely, is it sustainable? I think not.  There are any number of shocks in the wings which could deflate this balloon quickly.  So while the bulls may feel smug, and there are alot of reasons to think so, the game is not yet over. And anything can happen. 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

And the scariest part is that when the game is over, it's very nearly instantaneous.  Those who think they can "time" hitting the wall and cash out and flee to the hills are delusional.  The veneer of civilization is measured in days, and when markets lock up the timers will be in the same position as the rabble.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

Starting in 2004 the FOMC made note of oil prices and inflation at just about every meeting. Greenspan started raising short-term rates. I remember it well telling my brother that it was the end of the housing boom, this in 2004: "nobody knows how much money Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac earn @ 1% funds rate, they won't make any money at all @ 4%."

Rising short term rates killed the repo- and money markets, the mortgage securitization racket sank and mortgages became hard to get just b/c crude prices started to rise past $50 per barrel. All unintended consequences of 'inflation' that never existed outside of the FOMC and mortgage finance.

It's noticeable that Bernanke hasn't used the word inflation and neither has the FOMC since 2007 and Bear. This is with oil prices north of $100/ barrel. The reason of course is b/c of the accompanying need to defend higher short rates. Well ... higher short rates WOULD be inflation, how long would the US banking industry last w/ 2% short rates? About five minutes ...

2% credit would put all the money center banks underwater.

Bernanke can let rates rise and kill the pet banks, ease and let oil prices kill what remains of demand. Rock ... hard place.

Bernanke does nothing, there is nothing he can do (other than lie and come up with more acronyms: 'TARRGH', 'PFTH', 'BRRP', etc.)

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

A reversal in the VIX intraday.. the opposite OF Oct 5 2011.. Ding Ding the TOP IS IN.  ding ding

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

The most debt ridden country on planet Earth is a strong currency play? That should bode well for exports eh? Oh wait!

  The only thing we export is Apples and Bombs!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:47 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

Today is exactly one year since my long term silver spot price prediction chart was created and published on March 13th, 2011, here:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

Disregard most of the text, please, except advice for silver buying in the end:

[quote]So, keep silver, but You can buy or repurchase it cheaper during 2011-early 2012 than now. [/quote]

I will take the opportunity given by this anniversary to analyze the charts accuracy during and over one year.

One year ago, on Friday, March 11, 2011, Silver closing spot price was 35,9USD/Oz. In my chart on March 13,2011 I predicted that Silver closing spot price on March 13th, 2012 will be 32,5 USD/oz. Today it is 33,2 as I write. So the accuracy of this END-to-END prediction over one year period is about 2 %.

Here You can see the shorter term part of the same chart ( red color) with comparison to actual silver spot prices over the year period. I would like to suggest what would have been stacker actions he/she would have followed the chart:

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7204/6777724090_40679067e1_o.png

1) He/she  would never had bought silver above 32,5 USD but waited until it falls below it-except if he wanted to make short term profit on the peaks and troughs in April and August-September by going long before the peak and short at or after the peak.

2) He/she would have bought like hell in October 2011 when closing price was in the range 30-32

3) He/she would have been happily surprised by drop in December -January 2012 and buying with all his money when price went even below 30 USD

4) He/she would have never fallen into traps of April , August-September, October -November and February 2012 excitement and would not have bought above 32,5 -sold may be to make profit and bough back later.

Of course, no one is able to believe in any chart so much, especially from an unknown source, but some reliance on it after it had proved quite accurate ( don't by above 32,5) would have helped after September crash.

But now the scary part comes to test the chart- the fast raise and drop in silver which according to original chart should start already on April 1st 2012, and reach peak by October 2012, OR, according to the same chart that was little bit tuned (green)  in October 17th, 2011- slower and later ( from mid June 2012, with a real sharp rise starting mid September, double top November-December 2012).

http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6234/6280601222_40413db4b9_o.jpg

From both charts, I would say start to believe its going to hit 60-70 in 2012  once its over 45-50  But there will be a crash again, so buying above 45-50 without intent to sell at the peak is not advisable.

Can't wait to see what will happen. I do not trade, but have bought some physical gold to test own charting. If I am as lucky as usual in financial matters, I will loose money. Hope that helps.

All my prediction charts are in one place here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2814/ivars-charts

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 16:00 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture
FOMC Does Nothing, Notes Inflation Threat - Gold plunges. #WhatCrisis?
Tue, 03/13/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

The FOMC redline from a year ago is almost word for word the same as this one. Maybe there's a big dial in the meeting room and it reads "March" and off they go.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

Tyler is right on most insights.  This is one of the few sites that consistently shows how bad things are and how things are being manipulated. 

Bad mouthing this site because of the big S&P rally since 2009 is 20/20 hindsight.  Who the hell would have thought the government would/could have pulled this off when they were so flat footed with the initial crisis.  Again, Geithner and Bernanke have masterfully pulled off this faux recovery but keep in mind they have the entire US Government at their call.  For example, why do you think so many  news organizations have such a biased reporting basis?  It's because their CEOs were hauled into DC and read the frigging riot act, that's why.  Patriotic duty and all that.  And so far it's worked pretty well but of course their is always the Zero Hedges and such that won't play ball. 

Still, it ain't over yet.  But this can go on for a very long, long time (years).  I am keeping an eye on only two or three things amidst all this BS noise they push.  1)  Deficit by month/year.  If that doesn't come down (and it is unlikely to), there is no improvement in the economy.  I don't expect it to drop because I believe this is a huge structural change, but I could be surprised.  2)  Geithner's replacement.  This will be key.  They were pumping up some gal who has been working the Euro mess a few months back.  Probably trying to get her to take the job.  Geithner is very likely totally burned out and can't continue.  So his replacement will be key because whether you like him or not, he's an incredible crisis manager and has almost single handedly directed this "recovery".  3)  Income increases.  If the Fed can get salary increases going and sticking int he ecnoomy, well then they will win.  So far it doesn't appear to be happeneing; however, who knows.  They can push prices up but if wages don't follow, then further stagflation.  This is why they pump gas prices every year or so to see if they can get something to stick.  We'll see.

The rest of the garbage/drival is really one big waste of time.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 21:26 | Link to Comment cnhedge
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