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FOMC Minutes Leaked Early
While the FOMC Minutes have not yet been officially released by the Fed, it appears someone has broken the embargo. Here are the headlines.
- A FEW FOMC MEMBERS BELIEVED OUTLOOK MAY WARRANT MORE EASING
- FED OFFICIALS AGREED TARGETING NOMINAL GDP NOT ADVISABLE
- FED OFFICIALS SAW `LIMITED' IMPACT OF MF GLOBAL BANKRUPTCY
- A FEW FOMC MEMBERS FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR INTEREST-RATE PLEDGE
- A FEW FOMC MEMBERS BELIEVED OUTLOOK MAY WARRANT MORE EASING
- A FEW FOMC MEMBERS FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR INTEREST-RATE PLEDGE
- FED OFFICIALS BACKED IDEA OF OFFERING MORE DATA ON RATE PATH
- US RECOVERY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISKS
In other news - nothing substantially different from the statement or the conference that followed.
The market reaction was immediately Pro-QE:
Some more on NGDP targeting:
The Committee also considered policy strategies that would involve the use of an intermediate target such as nominal gross domestic product (GDP) or the price level. The staff presented model simulations that suggested that nominal GDP targeting could, in principle, be helpful in promoting a stronger economic recovery in a context of longer-run price stability. Other simulations suggested that the single-minded pursuit of a price-level target would not be very effective in fostering fostering maximum sustainable employment; it was noted, however, that price-level targeting where the central bank maintained flexibility to stabilize economic activity over the short term could generate economic outcomes that would be more consistent with the dual mandate. More broadly, a number of participants expressed concern that switching to a new policy framework could heighten uncertainty about future monetary policy, risk unmooring longer-term inflation expectations, or fail to address risks to financial stability. Several participants observed that the efficacy of nominal GDP targeting depended crucially on some strong assumptions, including the premise that the Committee could make a credible commitment to maintaining such a strategy over a long time horizon and that policymakers would continue adhering to that strategy even in the face of a significant increase in inflation. In addition, some participants noted that such an approach would involve substantial operational hurdles, including the difficulty of specifying an appropriate target level. In light of the significant challenges associated with the adoption of such frameworks, participants agreed that it would not be advisable to make such a change under present circumstances.
...
It was noted that many central banks around the world pursue an explicit inflation objective, maintain flexibility to stabilize economic activity, and seek to communicate their forecasts and policy plans as clearly as possible. Many participants pointed to the merits of specifying an explicit longer-run inflation goal, but it was noted that such a step could be misperceived as placing greater weight on price stability than on maximum employment; consequently, some suggested that a numerical inflation goal would need to be set forth within a context that clearly underscored the Committee’s commitment to fostering both parts of its dual mandate. More broadly, a majority of participants agreed that it could be beneficial to formulate and publish a statement that would elucidate the Committee’s policy approach, and participants generally expressed interest in providing additional information to the public about the likely future path of the target federal funds rate.
Some comments on Europe:
Foreign financial markets remained volatile over the intermeeting period, and funding pressures for many European financial institutions continued. After falling sharply in August and early September, foreign equity prices rose, with stocks in the euro area outperforming those in most other economies. For most of the period, market participants seemed heartened by European leaders’ efforts to address the fiscal and financial challenges present in the euro area, although the news late in the period on a possible Greek referendum sent stock prices down sharply. Benchmark sovereign yields increased over the period, but spreads of yields on 10-year sovereign bonds of the most vulnerable euroarea countries over yields on German Bunds were little changed on net. Some reversal of safe-haven flows in October reportedly led the dollar to give back most of the gains it registered in late September, leaving the broad nominal foreign exchange value of the dollar little changed, on balance, relative to its level at the time of the September FOMC meeting. At the end of October, Japanese officials intervened in foreign exchange markets through sales of yen.
On global FX warfare:
A number of central banks announced additional measures to stimulate economic activity. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan each announced expansions of their respective asset purchase programs, and the ECB announced that it would conduct two refinancing operations with maturities of slightly more than a year and launched a new covered bond purchase program. The central banks of Brazil, Indonesia, and Israel lowered their policy rates, citing a potential slowdown in global growth.
And on MF Global:
Participants also discussed the events surrounding the bankruptcy filing of MF Global Holdings Ltd. and saw the financial stability implications of this development as limited to date
Below are the full minutes.
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Thumbs up if you're buying precious metals after reading this news!
Two thumbs up if you were buying precious metals before reading this news!
Ditto! Still stacking, though.
ZERO HEDGE IS AWESOME!! I AM ON MY KNEES THANKING GOD FOR ZH!! (ALSO PRAYING YOU NEVER BECOME TOO BIG TO FAIL - i.e. THE FAST TRACK TO MEDIOCRITY & GOING DOWN THE CRAPPER)
(for the anti- BOLD and CAPS comments sure to follow - go to hell you fascists :)
Queue the QEasing already Bernank you fugger, you know you're going to eventually.
Bernank has already gotten the phone call where he was told by a sinister voice:
#WhereInTheWorldIsMFGlobalsJohnCorzine
Good question,....where is Jon Corzine from MFGlobal...?
Better question....
Why have NO CHARGES been brought against Jon Corzine,or MFGlobal....????
I wonder if they know Goldman Sachs.......????
You know if you go into a bank and rob them...and the police catch you..they put you in handcuffs and take you to jail....but if you rob your clients and they catch you...welll......
"Dead cat bounce in serious jeopardy ". There that's better
In CPR it often takes numerous heart compressions breaths and jolts to get the heart going again; likewise just 2 bouts of QE were destined to fail - or rather were never given the proper chance of success due to the likes of gerald celente flogging their fear porn over the internet and producing huge waves of needless negative sentiment. I see these people have been horribly burned recently after pilling into gold and silver! It serves them right! Im going to do what my government wants and will rightly reward me for doing: buy a huge house and swimming pool in las vegas, take out mortgages to buy other homes to rent out, have many children, drive a huge SUV, buy apple, ford, GM, facebook, and bank of america stock, get a degree in gender studies with philosophy then do a masters too...
I know Im just not as good as milliondollarbonus...
At the risk of sounding unoriginal: KEEP PRINTING BITCHEZ!!!!
My first thought about QE3 is a quote from PREDATOR...
Billy: I'm scared Poncho.
Poncho: Bullshit. You ain't afraid of no man.
Billy: There's something out there waiting for us, and it ain't no man. We're all gonna die.
Now, a question of etiquette - as I pass, do I give you the ass or the crotch? -- Tyler Durden "Fight Club"it's, it's, janet napolitano!
Fug is a good scrabble word. Means smelly, like in an overcrowded poorly ventilated room.
Before, after, during... whatever.
ps You just wanted approval admit it?
Nah, waiting for the big crash in everything
I am with you. I love Zero hedge and most of the posters are intelligent people but hyper inflation aint' happening. Inflation will happen but once oil hits 120 a barrel for more than a month the economy implodes. So even wih more easing they just end up with the same result and then everything crashes. Massive collapse and deflation is the only end game. That is why I have cash (recently took a lot of money out of the bank and put it in a safe deposit box.) Once everything collapses I am buying all of the oil, Gold and other commodities I can (Along with a few choice companies).
I would buy Gold because eventually (5-10 years from now) there will be no currency. Just electronic transfers (I would buy Visa and Mastercard in a crash as well.) And once money is nothing but electronic digits it is much easier to lose it or have it stolen. So having Gold as a wealth store will be warranted. Thinking Gold will crash to 1100 perhaps lower. Then I am buying with both hands. But not now...just patiently waiting for the Government fools to play their hands.
I have been back and forth (not expressing my opinions publicly) on this, but I am seeing a chart pattern of the leanings of the Fed Members that is shaping up to indicate that:
I bought all the precious metals I could get my hands on in '02. It's too bad that most people didn't get in when it was available for pennies on the dollar!
-John
http://johnu78.blogspot.com/2011/11/how-to-get-started-in-amateur-radio.html
Oops, forgot I couldn't hit "send" on that email ... I also hit the "print" button in a panic when I realized what I did. Doesn't that button start up the printing presses?
Again, why do anything when rumors of solutions is working so well.
Well if there's a rumor of a solution, the rumor might result in the market going parabolic into lalaland where everything is perfect and it never rains on a Friday and always snows on Christmas. See! Doesn't that make sense!?
Exactly. All they need to do is leak bogus info to keep the markets juiced. Have we not learned from months of this EU BS?
not incidental, given how they make their living, that all's left to do is done with their mouths
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
What timing they have. I think they wanted to effect the Comex close with the QE repudiation. Did nothing !
Talk about clawing for "any" little thing.
Jeesh !
'A FEW FOMC MEMBERS BELIEVED OUTLOOK MAY WARRANT MORE EASING'
What, they couldnt add that bullet point in for a 3rd time? Only twice? Slackers.
Bulletpoints are expensive in depression don'tcha know?
They have a really short half-life, so they're best saved for rainy days.
Reminds me of a scene in pssibly the best comedy of all time - BLAZING SADLES - where all the bad guys are lined up interviewing for a job to raid the town.
Interviewer - "So, what are your qualifications?"
Bad Guy - "Murder, Rape, Arson, and Rape."
Inrterviewer - "Hey! You said Rape twice."
Bad Guy - " I like Rape."
The FED likes to "ease".
If they ease this any more no one's gonna feel it getting pounded in.
'Crackhead market reaction was knee-jerk pro more free crack'...gee really?
The FOMC reminds me of a man who has been caught cheating on his wife who then offers the solution of cheating with more women as solving the wife's problem. FUCKTARDS
If you're gonna do the time, might as well maximize the crime.
and especially if you ain't gonna do the time........
nice catch
The FOMC minutes reminds me of the other day when we were having a great forum argument with who appeared to really be Paul Krugman.
I said let's take this to the real world. I'm running a business and my sales are way down, my inventory levels are rising because nobody wants to buy my product and cost controls are getting out of hand. My idea is to reduce my price to clear out inventory and hope to squeeze a bit of profit out of my business to keep the doors open.
Your idea is that I should actually produce more inventory because more production will utilize more materials and therefore strengthen my business and the economy. Mr. Krug didn't have an answer for that, or he just didn't care to answer.
If you replace the word inventory with the word dollar you can see how stupid Keynesian policies are. The production of more dollars can not fix the problem of too many dollars in the first place. The only thing that can fix the problem of too many dollars is the reduction in the amount of dollars. You fix debt by paying debt off, not making more debt.
JEBUS FRICKIN CHRIS IT ISN'T THAT HARD TO FIGURE OUT!!!!!
Fixing the problem is not what this is about since the "fix" is the problem as you have stated. May I submit a slightly different analogy.....
Patient: Doctor it hurts when I do this.
Doctor: Then stop doing it.
since the "fix" is the problem
creating the problem in the first place, however iniquitous, suggests that their prescient solution is in fact now occurring everywhere throughout their occident
no accident. especially, for instance, like italy, when the final collateral is gold . . . which it should be known that when all's said and said, again, their 1BigBank will own
citizen: it hurts when i do this
warbux: keep doing it. a hundred years from now who'll care
cent'an
.
. . . Banking means never having to say you're sorry
What, no conformation of Christine's fantasies?
In other words, we're screwed.
Easing more from here is like pushing on a string.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
Wow what amazing, original, and untried ideas the FOMC got, this will work
They have nothing left but a printer.
I can't believe that these economic gurus can't come up with something new.
"When all you have is a printer, everything looks like paper." - Tsar Pointless
ZIRP was a pretty creative cover for QE without calling it as such.
And how has that worked out? Bonds fuckered, stocks barely treading water at 1995 levels.
Exactly. But remember, the Amerikant public looks at nominal increases from their last point of cognition. Real deceases, as seen by you and the 1995 levels, are for those of us with memories that last beyond the span of the memories of a goldfish.
NGDP targetting is the end gamel; they push that button and the system (and future eco-data) go full retard. To maintain credibility - of which, beyond enriching its shareholders, is the Fed's main concern - there will be HUGE pressure to fuck with the numbers.
Cant fuck with the jobless broke guy at the store looking at prices wondering how to buy enough to get his family by another week though.
Food and energy will soon be like the housing prices skyrocketing at a rate well above median income increases. I remember thinking to myself about housing during that time saying there was no particular asset class to save one's money in order to purchase a house. People will have to BELOC (Bean Equity Line of Credit) their staples. '
I wonder if Wall Street will start up some Collateralized Spam Obligations.
Egyptians going head to head with their unelected rulers. Too much inflation, terrible economy & no representation.
Americans should watch and learn from Egypt's protesting hero's
Turn Off Star Seach....!
Egypt is 90% +/+ desert - a geographical paradox, where they're actually caught, or better said encapsulated in a sun-dial as the Arabian night-storms blanket their dreams for eternity,...
so screwed
Same talk for a year, rumors of printing and QE3, how is this any different from any other month this entire year?
I call BS, theyre just floating the same rumor again, theyve got nothin...we live in Groundhog Day.
These minutes contain always the same blah blah. It's getting boring.
Same old shit theyve been saying since 12 months ago.
and
Pretty much sums up the idiotic logic at the fed and how 'price stability' (much like the term 'national security') is carte blanche for a government agency to extend beyond its powers and become overbearing upon the masses-- in this case in particular the fed is perpetuating the social class genocide and the elimination of individual rights to a free a market system.
Hang all PHD eggheads, save humanity.
That should be good for a few hundred points on ...oh, wait...
What recovery?
Can we just dis-band this group and break out a Ouji board? More cost efficient and no less effective in decision making.
blah blah blah
truth = http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-special-report-2011
So that's why we got a 100+ point ramp job in the Dow. Oil has had another great 5% swing day.
Fuck this scam.
They don't even need to go ahead with further QE all they need to do is say they are going to do it. Even if it is recycling the exact same rumor over and over and over. Each time the bots think it is a new admission of easing.
Again fuck this scam that fucks everyone making less than $100k a year by making everything more expensive.
It's pitchfork time. We need bankster heads on pikes lining the streets of New York as a sign to anyone who wishes to exploit paper for wealth that your days are numbered.
I was happy to hear of Ted Forstman's death. Although the guy later realized that what he pioneered essentially destroyed America, leveraged corporate buyouts were his idea and he can't be forgiven for it. The guy was still a crook who always used inside information to make bets. He also helped create the megabuck professional athlete using IMG, again helping to further decimate society.
If I had a bottle of champagne I would crack it open to celebrate the death of another Wall Street crook. My dad has a bottle of Dom and a great bottle of White Star we are saving for the deaths of Buffet and Soros. That is if they ever die thanks to the pillaging of supple 17 year old organs that are probably implanted in them at every Bildeberg meeting.
Is this the rumor version of the leak or the real leaked version...
Leaky leak . Com wants to know
Bullish!
FED OFFICIALS AGREE TO ORDER BLACKHAWK HELICOPTERS
i dont know bout ya'll but i bought me some 5 year Treaury's...
"i'm rich....bitch"...
disclaimer: i'm admiring my relection n my 100oz silver bar
Always the same broken minds mumbling the same broken mantra: More easing.
No matter what happens the result is always the same: more easing.
Too sad more easing does nothing to fix the completely and utterly broken system. It just keeps the insolvent banks "running" a bit longer. When the day comes that the current system finally brakes, i sincerely hope that ALL the ponzimasters everywhere get what they deserve and then some.
Do these guys/gals not speak english ?
And I thought these people have sworn oath to keep these things from "leaking"
Seems someone needs "Depends"
I guess if you got shit for brains even depends might not cut it.
me thinks we could do with a few less committees in this country...
And on MF Global:
Dosen't this almost reek of "At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained."
Limbo rock - how low can we go?
Lower GDP growth, Euro melting down, ... Treasury Direct: $35 billion 5yr at 0-7/8% – Fed Talks More Easing
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
Limbo rock - how low can we go?
Lower GDP growth, Euro melting down, ... Treasury Direct: $35 billion 5yr at 0-7/8% – Fed Talks More Easing
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
I guess the Fed has not figured out that MF Global just exposed the CME as a worthless final counterparty. It is laughable how ignorant they are. Possibly, they should consider a non functioning commodity exchange as the biggest threat that has yet appeared?
Charlie Evans of the Chicago Fed has been pushing for QE3 for months now, apparently a voice of (faux) "dissent". All I know is that they always try to align market expectations with the Fed's, so the talking heads on the msm have all been given the script to expect QE3. I got burnt the last time I thought QE3 was coming, so I am not playing this game anymore, but just as a matter of interest it looks like the fix is in for more asset purchases.
This clearly is a confident market....not!
Tyler(s) ---
What happens to someone who breaks a Fed embargo? Are they put in time out?