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Food Price Spike Dead Ahead: US Cuts Corn Crop Forecast By 12% As 56% Of America Is Under Drought Conditions

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Who knew the next black swan would be deep fried? The biggest piece of imminent food inflation news over the past months, coupled with what is shaping up to be another record hot summer (for the best tracking of real-time electricity consumption primarily for cooling news we recommend the following PJM RT tracker of power load), has been the collapse in the corn harvest due to the worst drought since 1988 as 56% of America is in drought conditions. Today, the US just added some burning oil to the popcorn by cutting the corn-crop forecast by 12% to 13 billion bushels on expectations of a 13.5 billion harvest. Then again, who needs corn, when you can have cake?

Bloomberg explains:

 

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Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:24 | 2605596 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Margin raise time.  Bankers cannot allow farmers to get ahead.  Must..strangle...economy...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:31 | 2605631 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

start growing your own food and wave "hi" to the drones that will start flying over your house

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:35 | 2605643 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pmDlw5UXx8&sns=em

and than the music starts...

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:47 | 2605700 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

The crops will be 25% down this year ,then next year 50%, then next year 75% ,then it will start getting back to normal on the 4th year, just heads up.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:08 | 2605781 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Cornered

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:35 | 2605909 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Not to mention many farmers were Corzined when their hedging accounts were raided by MFG and PFG.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:32 | 2606183 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

If one were to use 2007 as 1927 for the start of the housing crash, then 2009 to the 1929 crash, the crops being 50% down in 2013 and 75% down in 2014 would line up perfectly with the 1933-1934 dust bowl.

http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe30s/water_02.html

In 1932, 14 dust storms were recorded on the Plains. In 1933, there were 38 storms. By 1934, it was estimated that 100 million acres of farmland had lost all or most of the topsoil to the winds.

"Three little words achingly familiar on the Western farmer's tongue, rule life in the dust bowl of the continent – if it rains."

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:37 | 2605651 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Bloomberg explains:

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:44 | 2605970 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

doooo tell

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:52 | 2605727 Kestrel_1
Kestrel_1's picture

The Farmers suffer the most in this game...the ADM, Cargill, Monsanto are the ones that prosper the most.  Look at the last 2 years, they have only made better profits than ever, DURING the greatest recession/depression ever.  And for ZH to parrot this story is only fueling the brainwashing that these companies do through the media...getting us all prepared for higher prices at the grocery stores while they again hit record profits...just more fleecing to come.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:16 | 2605811 Broomer
Broomer's picture

You are receiving an early warning that prices will rise because there is no fucking corn and you are complaining?

Less whining and more stockpiling.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:21 | 2605840 adr
adr's picture

Wrong, THERE IS PLENTY OF FUCKING CORN!!!!

Even with the reduced forecast, this years harvest will be the third highest in history. Last year was the largest harvest of corn ever. Silos are still full of corn from last year and there is more than enough grain to go around.

The price of corn has virtually nothing to do with actual harvesting conditions or amount of grain in the market. It is 100% manipulated by futures traders 99% of who don't ever take delivery of a single bushel.

The price spike of corn has pushed the price to double the level it should be, even with a record drought.

Wall Street profits, we lose. Simple as that.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:45 | 2605973 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

but why waste a fake crisis?

 

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:02 | 2606315 mudduck
mudduck's picture

Indeed. Perfect excuse to add a couple of lizard genes and maybe a cactus gene or two to make corn more 'drought resistant and tastier'.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:22 | 2606405 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Here in the midwest metro, we burn corn inefficiently in our cars.. and pay extra taxes to do it.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 13:24 | 2606656 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

You used to burn it in your corn stoves to heat your houses.  Maybe you still do?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:05 | 2606072 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Last year was NOT the largest production year for corn ever, two of the previous three years were higher.

Starting stocks for the Dec.-Feb. quarter of the 2011-12 year (I dont know why they break it down like they do instead of using calendar years) are considerably lower than previously also, actually the lowest since 2006-7.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/feed-grains-yearbook-tables.aspx

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:14 | 2606119 Kestrel_1
Kestrel_1's picture

@adr, you have agreed with my point.  Cries of doom and complaining of higher costs when there is plenty of product on the market.  Yet, these big companies only cut the farmers pay and raise the prices to everyone so they "win, win".  My original comment is about the structure of the food industry, the huge agro-companies gutting the heart and soul of America, ruining the corps and land for future generations and then using every opportunity they can find to put the blinders over peoples eyes so they name their price.  SO @Lednbrass, that is what I mean about brainwashing.  SO @jayman21, This drop in rainfall is their new opportunity to regame the system.  And @Broomer stock up on your HFCS.

 

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:33 | 2606185 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Private farmers get what the market will pay, not what ADM or some other conglomerate wants or doesnt want. Something like food that very few are willing to actually produce should command a good price- it is far harder to accomplish than most realize. There are also substantial variants in region- look at corn pricing in the link I posted and you will see that it is considerably cheaper in at least one region.

adr was also incorrect about both production and existing supplies, his statement simply is not reality.

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:17 | 2606120 Kestrel_1
Kestrel_1's picture

Stop with the bullshit ethonal production and use food to feed people.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:38 | 2606472 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

That means growing something other than corn. Corn mostly poisons people, as it's delivered as HFCS, which is why there is a direct parallel between it's increased use, and Americans becoming fat fucks. Sky high HFCS is a good thing, maybe eat something green, and less meat. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 13:20 | 2606615 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

There's an even better parallel between the introduction of dwarf wheat and Americans becoming fat.

Most corn that is grown is used as animal feed.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:45 | 2605971 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

What?

Fueling what brainwashing, you idiot? The story is explaining a simple basic fact- without enough rain, plants dont grow. Most corn in my area is very small and stunted (3-4' which is pitiful and sad for this time of year), anyone growing a large amount that doesnt have expensive irrigation and costly water bills isnt going to have much of a harvest this year. Mine is tall and healthy, but I only run a small patch for personal use and I irrigate.

I doubt you have ever produced so much as a single tomato so seriously- shut up.  While I dont care for Monsanto or corporate farms they arent stopping the rain from falling. Only a small percentage of farmers are affiliated with any of those outfits.

You are an urban dumbass whose complete lack of knowledge unfortunately does not preclude your having an opinion and trying to work it into whatever storyline is in your head. Big crop farmers without irrigation (the majority) are going to have small yields this year, period- and wait till you see beef prices this fall and next year lol.

It is quite simple really. No rain = higher losses in crops and animals= more expensive for what is available. Low supply, high demand.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:59 | 2606044 jayman21
jayman21's picture

"And for ZH to parrot this story is only fueling the brainwashing that these companies do through the media"

 

I will add that weather patterns are not constant.  History has periods of less rain fall than others.  They go in cycles.  To ignore history and not prepare is just stupid.  Good luck figuring out if the corn really exists or not.  For the history impaired....1930s dust bowl is a good starting place.  Also a depressed economy in the 1930s just in case you did not know that either.

 

ZH and brainwashing...never thought I would see those two words together.

 

As for the big 6 food producers....I fart in their general direction as much as possible.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:40 | 2606475 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Your forgetting that that the central region has drained almost all of it's aquafiers, so irrigation isn't available at this point. Texas can go fuck themselves, as the "free" market will help them sort it out. 10 years from now, Americans will be trying to sneak into Mexico for food and jobs.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:13 | 2605797 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

Almost at Soylent Green times. You can bet the gov will be ready with handouts, spiked with more compliant drugs to stimulate conformity. "Get Your Marks" come and "Get Your Marks"

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:26 | 2605597 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Very very... Long Popcorn.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:25 | 2605600 sabra1
sabra1's picture

so what your saying, is that corn just got creamed?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 14:22 | 2606928 akak
akak's picture

That would have been even funnier if you had a solid grasp of 3rd-grade-level grammar, and understood the basic difference between "your" and "you're".

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:25 | 2605602 sampo
sampo's picture

Ethanol, Bitchez!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:25 | 2605603 Jason T
Jason T's picture

"We don't have the food supplies to maintain the population of the United States itself, right now!" Lyndon LaRouche said this July 7. We are now well into the principal crop season of North America, and it's a catastrophe. Drought persists in the entire southwestern part of the continent, but also dryness and heat have struck a multi-state zone in the U.S. Cornbelt. The weather impact, the decades of anti-improvements, plus the barring of any food reserves under WTO rules, means hunger and famine. A few updates from Mexico and the U.S. document the scale of this emergency.

http://larouchepac.com/node/23310
Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:34 | 2605639 Bob
Bob's picture

"FARMERS FACE FINANCIAL SHOCK from having forward contracted to supply corn they now won't have, and can't obtain. Farmers have been conditioned to be savvy, and to advance buy and sell grain, and advance-contract for inputs — called "risk management." But their own crops are withering in the fields, and they cannot line up other sources to fulfull contracts they made, even at any (big loss) price.

* ETHANOL PLANTS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA are facing financial failure. They have cut back or suspended production, because of the too-high price of corn, or absolute lack of corn. They have been trying to sell their stock; no one is buying. A mass crash of ethanol companies regionally (farmer-owned) is imminent."

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:58 | 2605745 duo
duo's picture

let them all die (the ethanol plants, that is)

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:02 | 2605765 pods
pods's picture

Here here!  I am getting damn tired of replacing burned out catalytic converters.

pods

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:46 | 2605974 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Yeah, another hidden cost of this stupid fucking subsidy that makes no sense.  I had to replace a catalytic converter on my car last year - fortunately it was still under the emissions warranty by a thousand miles or so.  First time I've ever had to replace one or heard of it.  This is on an E85 compatible (ha, ha) car, which I had used E85 in maybe 10-15 times several years ago before the prices made it a consistently bad decision on a miles per dollar basis.  Apparently that was enough to set failure in motion.  Brilliant.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:37 | 2605924 laomei
laomei's picture

The ethanol is a slight of hand because you can't afford real gas anymore.  

Here's the math:

Say a gallon of gas is $3.80, which now contains 15% ethanol.

Ethanol is cheap at $1.63 a gallon

So that last 15% of the gallon is only costing $0.2445

Remove that from the $3.80 and we're left with $3.556 for 85% of a gallon of gas.

Divide by the 0.85 to get the price of a full gallon of gas, which is $4.183.

It's just another trick they pull.  The subsidy is created by forcing refineries (by law) to use ethanol, which creates a false demand while at the same time helping to create the illusion that you can still afford gas.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:18 | 2606376 KK Tipton
KK Tipton's picture

Yes!  Finally somebody says it.

 

Notice the price of diesel. Near $4.00 or above.
This is because diesel is a *real* energy dense fuel...not cut with corn squeezins'

You get what you pay for.

Why do you think they want Americans to drive gasoline cars?
Because they burn up much greater volumes of crap fuel to go a given distance.

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:49 | 2605714 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Cattle business is dying too due to the drought. Farmers are selling their cattle at rock bottom prices as well as their farms. Problem with the farms is there is an oversupply of raw land so very few buyers.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 13:21 | 2606645 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

So true! I was talking to my mother in law the other day who was a Red Angus breeder a few years back. She was shocked how much serious culling is being done due to drought. This seriously affects your future because it takes years to get enough breedable heifers to increase the herd. She only keeps 10 head now for friends/ family and the prices for yearlings have doubled from last year if you can even find them. Luckily she only raises grass and barley fed beef so the corn prices won't get her. I guess there's a shit storm coming in beef soon.

Miffed:-)

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:20 | 2605812 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

And I called for a drought upon the land, and upon the mountains, and upon the corn, and upon the new wine, and upon the oil, and upon [that] which the ground bringeth forth, and upon men, and upon cattle, and upon all the labour of the hands. Hey Fellow Americans, lets continue murdering babies and supporting Homosexuality. Seems to working real well.

Yes I do believe in God's Judgement upon a wicked land

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:25 | 2605862 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

+1

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:36 | 2605915 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

Hey Fellow Americans, lets continue murdering babies and supporting Homosexuality. Seems to working real well.

 

a) An embryo is not 'a baby' - clearly biology is not your strong subject

b) The bible says nothing against homosexuality - you just interpret it that way so you can get your closet homosexual fears out of your system.

 

Like most things 'religious' - a good story totally devoid of fact or reason.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:51 | 2606247 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The Bible says nothing about abortion, either, and it all used to be just fine with the Catholic church until "the quickening" because it was believed that it took awhile for the soul to infuse the body.

Religious zealots are worthless.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:21 | 2606395 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

I'm not a religious person, nor do I support/not support gay shit. If you want to be gay, be gay.

buttttt.....

Leviticus 20:13 says:
"If a man practices homosexuality, having sex with another man as with a woman, both men have committed a detestable act. They must both be put to death, for they are guilty of a capital offense."

There's also a passage in ... kings I believe that says it's an abomination in god's eyes meaning, you go to hell and stuff like that.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:46 | 2606499 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

The bible clearly says you should eat Kosher, has a wide range of talk about NC-17 sex descriptions, and a bunch of other rules that people need to follow. The bible has the same problem as America - selective enforcement. That's why I only eat pork from homosexual pigs that support abortion, it's the quickest path to rightousness. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 13:24 | 2606658 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

For once, that is very cynical. Pre-US citizen distortion of meaning.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 13:36 | 2606711 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Pre-US citizen distortion of meaning.

So you will now apply AnAnonymousism translatorification and, in accordance with your life philosophy, provide your Post-US citizenism distortion of meaning?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 13:48 | 2606755 akak
akak's picture

You are clearwise on the birth of gripping the understandingness of deepest meanings of self-denialistic algebraic coconut Chinese Citizenism hobnobbery.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 14:05 | 2606821 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Chinese citizenism sorcery such as this becomes evident once you recognize the AnAnonymousitizenistic pattern of extorting the farm and pouring the week. This makes possible revealery of their algebraic hobnobbified coconuttery with obviosity plainness muchly.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 13:40 | 2606727 object_orient
object_orient's picture

Too many abortions and homosexuals cause drought? Hmm. Too few would probably cause floods then. What is the optimum number of each so your wacky god will create perfect weather?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:27 | 2605609 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Food price spikes is right! They are already rising.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:54 | 2605735 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Food price spikes is right! They are already rising.

They have been rising over three years..............its just going to get worse.

My food purchases have risen over 25%+/- in two years,this will exacerbate the problem exponentially.

And we are damned fools to use FOOD for fuel.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:22 | 2605845 adr
adr's picture

We are damned fools for letting futures traders at Goldman Sachs have power over the price of what we eat.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:27 | 2605612 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Corn now, Soy beans  next, wheat ,cattle and pigs all set to go higher. Keep a eye on the sky, you migh want to "stack" some victuals.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:46 | 2605696 juangrande
juangrande's picture

That corn, and everything made from it, just makes you fat and stupid! In my opinion, this is good news for merika!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:28 | 2605613 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

so I'll eat rice 2 billion chinese can't be wong.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:22 | 2605851 TrainWreck1
Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:23 | 2606407 KK Tipton
KK Tipton's picture

US grown rice? Where is it?

Rice comes from over the seas......

 

Another point of failure. Better have a backup plan set.

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:52 | 2606521 object_orient
object_orient's picture

Lots of rice grown in California. Calrice.org

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 13:06 | 2606571 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Rice is grown in the Mississippi River basin and California.  The US is a major exporter of rice.  Rice is used to bew your Budweiser beer.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:27 | 2605614 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

least we got meat ... ummm ...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:28 | 2605617 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Food shortage, plus wall street cornering food markets, plus SNAP subsidies for food buyers...bad times ahead.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:29 | 2605620 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Commodity traders need chumps to unload their corn contracts upon at a profit ahead of the harvest (with help from bloomie et al).

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:31 | 2605629 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

You will know the truth of that when the margin raises come in after they sell.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:00 | 2605715 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Farmers can still get one more crop in. All traders do is jack prices to make a quick buck without having to work for it. And yes, the cftc will help the big boys skin the sheep.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:29 | 2605622 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Can't Bernanke print some corn? They seem to be able to print paper gold, so why not some paper corn?

Let's see how the fiat paper mafia profits from this at the expense of empty stomachs.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:29 | 2605623 bozzor
bozzor's picture

Serious question: is there a proper term for a situation where the price of consumables needed for survival (oil/energy, foodstuffs, soaps and some services) experiences inflation, but the price of capital goods and investments (shares, machinery, property etc) deflates? Stagflation is close, but it focuses more on economic growth remaining low rather than capital goods prices falling...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:34 | 2605638 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

bozzor: how about QE.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:36 | 2605650 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

'Biflation' works.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:20 | 2605834 Broomer
Broomer's picture

"Clusterfuck" is the word you are looking for.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:52 | 2606005 serog
serog's picture

Fubar comes to mind.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:23 | 2606412 KK Tipton
KK Tipton's picture

Stand and Deliver?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:48 | 2606503 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Central "planning"

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:30 | 2605625 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Going to be a lot of "naked farmers " out there who thought they bought " protection ". Farmland should be cheap this fall.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:33 | 2605635 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Isn't PFG based in Iowa?  I think the corn farmers already got cornholed. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:31 | 2605630 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

another strike against QE. LOVING it! FUCK YOU, BEN!!!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:35 | 2605641 kito
kito's picture

1930s in the 21st century..........

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:35 | 2605644 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Just more hits to Oblamebush just in time for the election. Who am I kidding though, the people will reelect him I'm sure. If there's one thing I have learned in spades in the past 6 years it's NEVER underestimate the stupidity of the American people and their love for rewarding the same old sociopaths who continually lie and financially, socially and ethically rape them. You gotta respect a woman who knows how to take a beating and keeps asking for more...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:46 | 2605697 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

..."You gotta respect a woman who knows how to take a beating and keeps asking for more"

 

Love yes...........Respect NO

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:04 | 2605774 fnordfnordfnord
fnordfnordfnord's picture

Yeah, why can't these sheeple recognize that Mittens is kind, loving,  sincere, cares about the middle class, and completely the opposite of Ohbummer. Fools they are!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:37 | 2605652 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

Stock up!

Midwest drought may spark food inflation

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/07/10/2890172/midwest-drought-may-spark-food.html

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:39 | 2605665 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Will this be the spark that sets off the inflationary tinder/lumberyard/gasoline storage facility?  The whole system is just waiting for that kick over the edge.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:44 | 2605687 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Food is still a to low factor of the total buget. If it reaches 30% of the total spending budget, that's when things start to heat up.

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:42 | 2605677 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

EAT MORE PUSSY!!!!!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:44 | 2605688 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

tastes great but you can't live on it

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:52 | 2605725 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Barter?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:52 | 2605728 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and in the end it will cost you all of your gold...

but it's fun :)

TASTES LIKE CHICKEN, SMELLS LIKE FISH!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aKpOhWD414&sns=em

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:23 | 2605852 Dick Gazinia
Dick Gazinia's picture

Only two things in the world smell like tuna...and one of them is tuna.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:20 | 2606389 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Is the other one parsley?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:49 | 2606511 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Live with it. I fixed that for you.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:43 | 2605681 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

How can we eat our peas if we can't grow any?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:43 | 2605686 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I'm in the great midwest and I can attest is scary dry this year. We haven't had any rain for 2 months and very little since January. A lot of nervous farmers who have expanded operations the past few years(with debt) and now facing a disaster crop. Brother in law has 1200 acres and he's ready to plow it under by the end of next week if no rain.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:47 | 2605704 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I felt so bad for my lawn guy I had him trim my tree and bushes.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:48 | 2605711 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Hopefully your BIL didn't pay 20k per acre like some of the dumb fucks around me. TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:44 | 2605689 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

No worries, iPad prices are coming down and we have plenty of them.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:47 | 2605699 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Corn looks like SHIT here in IA in my area. The leaves are withering and curled up, very stressed. Those four legged creatures in the feedlots are getting more dollar signs branded to them by the day. I give it another week to two, if no rain then lookout below. It WILL be a chain reaction with the local implement dealers, car lots, etc. This area is VERY dependent on the good yields these guys are so accustomed to. Might this be the big one for the Midwest? Methinks it very well may be.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:05 | 2605707 battlestargalactica
battlestargalactica's picture

DESCENT INTO THE DEPTHS (1930):

Great Depression: The Collapse of Agriculture

http://www.futurecasts.com/Depression_descent-end-'30.html

On September 15, 1930, the N.Y. Times editorialized:

"Everyone recognizes now that this is not a new economic era, in the sense that old-fashioned principles and penalties of economic law have been abolished. The new inventions in the way of manufacturing credit are seen to have been merely a novel way of repeating the very old practices of abuse of credit."

Unbelievable parallels... Only this time, we have no industrial base and our ag has been co-opted by corporations.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 13:22 | 2606649 viahj
viahj's picture

and we have 45m on the gov't teat already with SNAP. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:52 | 2605724 Harriet Wanger
Harriet Wanger's picture

Ah, shades of Enron planting news stories that drought was going to raise the price of power because the Columbia River dams weren't going to produce as much electricity. I'm a chickenhead, I'll buy it.

Fire-in-the-theater forecasts are just plausible excuses for the predetermined reaming of consumers.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:09 | 2605779 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

+1

Americans will take any old 'explanation'. Droughts did it?!

Fire-in-the-theater forecasts are just plausible excuses for the predetermined reaming of consumers.

Well, yeah. Here's more bad news: most 'Merikans still fall for it.

The psychological explanation: to extract something familiar from something unknown relieves, comforts, and satisfies us, besides giving us a feeling of power.     With the unknown, one is confronted with danger, discomfort, and care; the first instinct is to abolish these painful states.  First principle: any explanation is better than none. --Nietszche

Hooray Apathy!!!

ps I don't think 'chickenhead' means what you think it means but what do I know I left the States years ago.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:31 | 2605890 Harriet Wanger
Harriet Wanger's picture

Do androids dream of electric sheep?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:54 | 2605736 adr
adr's picture

How about in the case of severe drought we ban the use of food as fuel. There is plenty of corn for human consumption out there. The problem is the millions of acres used by corporate farms to grow corn to get massive government subsidies for ethanol.

Farmers are better off planting a crop and selling the harvest at a roadside stand. Playing with Wall Street will always leave them burned.

I guess that is why the family farm is pretty much gone. Most farmers don'teven own their own crop anymore. They harvest it and are paid by big agro.

Obama's toast wen middle Ameica sees the price of Budwieser go to $20 for a six pack. YOU MAY TAKE OUR FREEDOM, BUT YOU MAY NEVER TAKE OUR BEER!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:01 | 2605758 duo
duo's picture

ethanol has enticed farmers to grow corn for the 4th year in a row in the same fields, needing more and more nitrogen fertilizer, and of course the worms and other pests benefit from tha lack of rotation, and they develop reisitance to pesticides/BT faster.  What no one seems to understand is that TOPSOIL is a consumable!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:11 | 2606104 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Yes, and this is the true danger of the Monsanto Roundup Ready Frankencrops.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:58 | 2605746 whoopsing
whoopsing's picture

I'm guessing its raining near you Harriet

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:58 | 2605747 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Big fucking deal.  JPM and the rest can just sell a ton of corn short, thus demonstrating the lack of demand for corn,and the price will promptly go down and we can all eat well and cheaply. I love this paper economy!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 09:59 | 2605750 mendolover
mendolover's picture

I don't eat that GMO shit anyway. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 15:13 | 2607215 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Are you sure?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:00 | 2605754 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Farmers are protected..I'm sure they've hedged with future contracts with MFG of PFG...right?  After all, those funds are there to protect farmers.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:02 | 2605763 bidaskspread
bidaskspread's picture

So that's how they are going to double exports in five years.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:02 | 2605764 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

We will get a gas spike too, a huge % of the US corn crop goes to ethanol

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:09 | 2605783 fnordfnordfnord
fnordfnordfnord's picture

Does this mean we can have real sugar in our cokes again?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:11 | 2605791 DosZap
DosZap's picture

When it gets bad cheer up, it can always be worse.(and it will)

Just waiting for the Owhammy shoe to drop.

If he gets another four years WE are all DOA.

The taxes hidden in the  HealthCare bill are going to hit us like a ton of bricks,and 90% of a 1000 Dr's surveyed said they were considering quitting the practice. 90%,they are refusing to lose money on more patients.

I have great insurance, and my Internist has so many patients(he's good),it takes an avg of 14mos wait to get a supposedly yearly physical.

Already no new patienta are being accepted, and the elderly are for saure.

The Dr's cannot make a dime off of the payout from the gub.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:20 | 2605833 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

are you an idiot in real life, or do you just play one here on ZH?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:13 | 2605800 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

what a load of shit.  STop with the bullshit articles already. Last year the output was 12.3 billion, this year it looks to be 13 billion, and you think an increase of 700 million bushels leads to some sort of food price spike.  WTF.

 

Stop with the bullshit

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:24 | 2605857 Broomer
Broomer's picture

How much of this is being used for fuel production?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:32 | 2605895 adr
adr's picture

The Ethanol industry says that corn for ethanol consumption will fall 1% by 100million bushels.

Funny how the corn crop can be cut by 12%, yet ethanol corn consumption is only cut by 1%.

 

HMMMM, somebody isn't being honest here.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:37 | 2605926 Broomer
Broomer's picture

I guess that's because there is a mandatory percentage of fuel that must come from corn... right? I'm not American, and I'm not sure about this.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:22 | 2606141 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

ITS not being cut by 12%, the forecast for the year was cut, its still on pace to far EXCEED last years crop.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:23 | 2606147 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

not the point, Im sure its the same percentage as last year, so do you ahve a point?  My point is if you have an increase of 700 MILLION bushels, you arent going to have some sort of price spike.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:53 | 2606260 erheault
erheault's picture

 One small problem it is called export where the price is higher that national price so if we even have a high yeild the export prices with world shortages due to population groth and weather problems will be higher so our supposedly surplus will be sold for export not local consumption,  Quite a large amount that we still have in storage has been sold a long time ago and is just being held in storage untill needed for exporters to arrange shipping.  Dont count your corn fritters untill you have them in your hand, shortages are real and growing worse. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:14 | 2605801 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

I'll be cutting back on my  consumption of corn syrup and coca cola.

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:14 | 2605802 falak pema
falak pema's picture

is the climate change meme going to make a new dust bowl in mid west USA?

The drought is awesome and corn on the cob will soon be a luxury, for those on food stamps. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:16 | 2605814 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

EXCEPT for the fact that corn production is actually UP this year.  But why allow facts to get in the way of all this nonsense.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:27 | 2605874 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

cite?

 

I'm seeing a record planted area with reduced yield.

http://wattagnet.com/Wheat_prices_could_rise_on_US_corn_concerns,_lowered_supplies.html

 

 

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:26 | 2606157 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

wall street journal

The USDA now projects a corn harvest of 12.97 billion bushels, down from its record-breaking previous forecast of 14.79 billion bushels and below the previous record of 13.09 billion bushels in 2009. Production in the U.S., the world's biggest corn producer and exporter, would still be up from 12.36 billion bushels last year.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303919504577520611695492558.html

 

so stop falling for this bullshit, near record crop harvest do not lead to food spikes.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:15 | 2606365 skipjack
skipjack's picture

Methinks somebodies don't understand the difference between prediction and reality...yet.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:18 | 2605827 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Wasn't there a big scare like this a few years ago when the major rain and floods hit that area? The doom from that never panned out if I recall.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:29 | 2605883 adr
adr's picture

With the reduced forecast, the corn is still expected to be the third highest on record and farmers still were not able to sell all of last year's record harvest. People forget that corn can be dried and stored in silos.

It turns out that hedge funds were actively buying corn storage last year to prevent the crop from being sold on the open market, depressing the price of corn.

We are being fleeced by traders, plain and simple. The rumors of rumors of a bad harvest have sent corn up 45% in one month, from prices that were already high. Total bullshit.

$745 for corn? maybe if there was no crop at all.

Thank you to the wonderful Fed for not only causing the S&P to double, but to also cause the price of just about everything else to double as well.

If you forced delivery of futures contracts and banned the monthly roll over, corn prices would plummet to $300 a bushel within a week. 99% of those that hold a contract wouldn't know what to do when a few thousand bushels of corn show up at their door.

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:25 | 2606154 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The paper that forecast was printed on would be suitable to wipe your ass with if it had a tad more absorbancy...

This crop is going down the tubes....

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:31 | 2605893 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

LET THEM EAT DUST!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:40 | 2605942 sbenard
sbenard's picture

... or arugula, if you're an Obama!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:38 | 2605934 sbenard
sbenard's picture

It's not just corn, either. Sugar, cotton, soybeans, wheat, and other food commodities are exploding too. This is a true, modern-day DROUGHT! If it continues, three months from now, it could be a true, modern-day FAMINE!

If the Fed unleashes more QE, food prices could go ballistic!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:42 | 2605947 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Drought is good for the solar industry !  Obama wins again !       Monedas     1929        Comedy Jihad The Dry Clouds Of Drought Have A Silver Lining

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:47 | 2605982 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

this will give the white house the perfect chance to raise food stamp payouts and give a bigger kick to JPM for running that show!!  and walmart et all get more profits!!!  steal from the future!!  first to use inflated dollars always win!!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:26 | 2606160 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

AGW is going to incinerate the Corn Belt slowly but surely over the next 30-50 years....

You can bank on it...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:35 | 2606462 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Corn yields in 2008 were 12B bushels, this year projections are dropping from 13.5B to 13B and for some reason that's the end of the world. What's next, "Peak Corn"?

Your grandchildren and great-grandchildren will be stuffing corn down their gullets in huge quantities 30-50 years from now. THAT you can bank on.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:58 | 2606514 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep.... just like the EIA was saying we would be producing 95 mmbpd of oil in 2012 not so many years ago....

I suggest you take a look at the following

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full

Here is a free excerpt/synopsis:

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decades

Edit: For some perspective, the PDSI during the Dust Bowl was around -6

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought/drght_pdsi.html

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 16:22 | 2607579 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Worst case scenario you'll see a slight blip in silage and ethanol feedstock costs, nothing more. Given how much gasoline demand has gone down over the past four years I doubt you'll see any cost increases from this "Great Drought" at all (yes, that means the 'E' in 'E10' demand goes down with it). Recall also that we just came off the largest La Nina on record for 2010-2011 so of course we're ready to go into a dry cycle for the US Midwest. You can set your calendar to this stuff and most farmers do.

I know you like playing Chicken Little on this board but, frankly, most of us are immune to your shennanigans. Try it out on the college kids, they'll believe anything you tell them when it's all spiffy and academic like that.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:10 | 2606340 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

It would be a good thing if we cut down our corn production, anyway. 

Most of the worst crap sold as "food" in the market is corn-based, and cows' digestive tracts aren't well-equipped to handle corn, either.

Higher food prices in the short-term will suck, but it's not like there haven't been production problems with all kinds of stuff in the past. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:29 | 2606445 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/crop0712.pdf

Oh no, the sky is falling... whatever.

 

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:44 | 2606490 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Interesting! Wheat production is UP 12% from 2011. Feed the cows on wheat...most other meat producers do.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 14:07 | 2606703 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Please provide a link for your claim, it appears to be unverifiable:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_wheat_production_statistics

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0861.pdf

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/SmalGraiSu/SmalGraiSu-09-30-2011.pdf

Edit: As I suspected, it is a forecast.... call me in 7 months when it is confirmed...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 16:27 | 2607602 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Well, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. All your peak oil and drought reports are merely forecasts. Why should they be given any more credence than the others? You don't need to answer, I already know why... because forecasts that confirm your world view are 'legit' and those that don't are 'suspect'. Go sell it somewhere else, we're not buying.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:46 | 2606496 Sakka
Sakka's picture

We'll be your slaves if you feed us!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 15:44 | 2607374 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

Who needs cake when you can eat iPads.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!