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Forget China, The USA Is Leading The World Out Of Slowdown

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Concerned about European bank deleveraging impacting Emerging Market growth prospects? Worried over Global Trade Volumes dropping and a multi-decade low in the Baltic Dry? Fearsome of record inventories for commodities in China and the potential for a harder landing from credit contraction in the shadow banking system? Concerned that Europe's sovereign and financial insolvency problems are not all gone? Worry no more. It appears, and who are we to argue with the data, that the USA is in fact leading the world out of this global growth slowdown with its Composite PMIs the highest of all the major growth drivers. From Markit Economics, we see that perhaps Goldman's Jim O'Neill will have to change his famous acronym to UBRIC as the decoupling myth (not a lag or inventory cycle) remains firmly in place (and the record-breaking jumps in some of the US Services PMI sub-indices should be treated with all the respect in the world).

Global Composite PMIs - with USA right up there with India...

 

...which given its weighting is leading the appearance that all is returning to a positive trend.

Source: Markit Economics

 


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Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

FBI Conference Call with Scotland Yard published by Anonymus:

 

 

 

Brand new and fresh: Anonymus just published it

 

See video here:

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/etc/9391-telefon-konferenz-fbi-scotland-yard-veroeffentlicht

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Wake me up when they're streaming live video from a Predator drone over Iran to the interwebz.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment ratso
ratso's picture

Great Point Tyler - Guess the sky isn't falling after all.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

LOL.. as I tried to absorb the enormity of the deformity, that’s exactly what I was thinking.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:14 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

"absorb the enormity of the deformity"

<golf clap>

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

There is no deformity in those numbers look carefully at the numbers:

33k gain in employment services - they will retrain you or you go to permament unemployment, you maybe depressed so you go to

33k gain in drinking places, what they drink I don't know, then after few days you're depressed so you seek proffesional help and you go to shrink to help you with your problems

31k gain in health care, if you not calm enough after treatment and losing your home you may find refuge in one of those cheap motels

11k gain in hospitality industries, still you can't afford cheap motels then you can occupy an empty mall, they still build more of them

21k gain in construction

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

UPRIC

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment OttoMBMP
OttoMBMP's picture

Print & Lie

Forever!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Hooray! Maybe we can start manufacturing United States flags over here again!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

I'm pretty sure there was a large shipment of $100 bills marked for new distribution that was pulled by the fed since some loose cannon in quality control found the words "Made in China" on the back of the bills.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Services? Isn't this just all of the Bennie bucks that Wall St. spent on hookers and blow?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:08 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

You say that like it's a bad thing....

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Lazane
Lazane's picture

un huh sure and the pope is not a catholic

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

We're doin' the best?

Ruh Roh...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Hackfor...I mean STratfor's 10 yr prediction to come true?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Dorky
Dorky's picture

Amazing.

A country without much manufacturing (since most of the manufacturing outsourced to foreign countries) can have the highest PMI.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

The US accounts for roughly 22% of the world's manufacturing capacity.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

I didn't know porn was considered manufacturing....thanks

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:23 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Xkwisetly Paneful

The US accounts for roughly 22% of the world's manufacturing capacity.

 

COOL.......................now, how much of that is OFFSHORE?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

We are saved, just do not look behind the curtain and see the man pulling all those levers. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:47 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Right now it's the less deep but extremely impactful at the margin Euro propping up the USD and helping to hold everything together. It's just like a magician that keeps the attention on the one hand (Euro), when the real action is happening in the other hand (USD). Keep watching the same trick time and time again, though, and eventually the magician's trick gets understood. When the USD inevitably starts to fall hard is when commodities will really explode.

TheSilverJournal.com

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment moskov
moskov's picture

If you see the graph clearly who the Leading economies of no slowdown really are?

 

USA - India - UK

 

All debtors nations with pathetic record of manufacturing deficit.

 

Good luck with that fake PMI alongside your employment figures.

 

Facebook can feed your people in the cold hard winter.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Maybe not, but imports can.

It is much export economies that have to grow concerned as their domestic demand has to be suppressed more and more to meet the others' demand.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:53 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

That is the epitome of status quo nonsense right there. Those exporters are perfectly capable of consuming what they produce. When they stop wasting their real goods that took real labor and real resources to make in exchange for dollars from a printing press, the economies of those exporter are going to boom.

The only reason to export something is to import something else. Importing pieces of paper instead of real goods is what's holding those countries back.

TheSilverJournal.com

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment HyperLazy
HyperLazy's picture

Plop plop, fizz fizz - oh wot a relief it is...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Have we come full circle… with this radian chart porn?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:06 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Funny how it is still almost impossible to find a product that says "Made in America" even though these stats say everything at Wal-Mart should be.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:06 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Steppenwolf

[with a tiny tweak]

I like to dream, yes, yes
Right between the [print] machine[s]
On a cloud of sound I drift in the night
Any place it goes is right
Goes far, flies near
To the stars away from here

Well, you don't know what
We can find
Why don't you come with me little girl
On a magic carpet ride

Well, you don't know what
We can see
Why don't you tell your dreams to me
Fantasy will set you free

[Chorus]
Close your eyes now
Look inside now
Let the sound
Take you away

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:08 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

As the truth gets ever harder to accept, people will believe ever bigger lies. And so it goes until reality keeps food from their mouths. That's when it all changes.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment daxtonbrown
daxtonbrown's picture

The CBO report just released tells me they are having a hard time in the Ministry of Disinformation juggling the books. Here's the link to the CBO report. http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=12699

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Boo-yah Cramerica!!!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Looks like the OBAMA 2012 campaign is on like donkey kong. Unemployment down, markets surging, consumer confidence rising...ect..ect... ect... Like I said a few years back, the National debt will be 18.5 TRILLION when the 2012 election takes place in November. If you add in the money they looted from SSI and other programs, I think we will hit the bulls eye. Congratulations Mr. President, you successfully doubled our National Debt in only 4 short years...Bravo, and remember when the Keynsians made such a big deal out of $700 Billion dollars? BAWAHAHAH a staggering number? LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hu9VvSnl4MQ

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Congratulations Mr. President, you successfully doubled our National Debt in only 4 short years...

The President doesn't really have that power.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Well, one of the PMI components IS "inventory."

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:42 | Link to Comment dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

tick tock tick tock .......

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 07:56 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

 


tick tock tick tock 

.......Musical Fugue 

Time

(Mason, Waters, Wright, Gilmour) 7:06

Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day 
You fritter and waste the hours in an offhand way. 
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town 
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way. 

Tired of lying in the sunshine staying home to watch the rain. 
You are young and life is long and there is time to kill today. 
And then one day you find ten years have got behind you. 
No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun. 

So you run and you run to catch up with the sun but it's sinking 
Racing around to come up behind you again. 
The sun is the same in a relative way but you're older, 
Shorter of breath and one day closer to death. 

Every year is getting shorter never seem to find the time. 
Plans that either come to naught or half a page of scribbled lines 
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way 
The time is gone, the song is over, 
Thought I'd something more to say.

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Is PMI Promising Massive Inflation...?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:51 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Ethel Merman is in da house. Give a shout out for my hombee girl.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

"Forget China, The USA Is Leading The World Out Of Slowdown"

Told you so: no crisis, collapse, meltdown. All the doomers can pack their stuff and go. Like these:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/
http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment headless blogger
headless blogger's picture

A lot of money has been made by the "doomers' and the Anti-war camp over these last 10 years.

It will be interesting to see what the new Antithesis will be. Maybe we can get in on it early before it gets going. Early bird gets the worm.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Early worm gets the bird.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment beatus12
beatus12's picture

Excellent news and great job America! - be happy for all

the people getting back to work.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

ZOMG Robo was right!!!1!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:12 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

No doubt. Productivity is high, Excess Capitacity is low and good labour is hard to find in Michigan. Suppliers are knocking back work like i've never seen. I don't blame them for their arogance.

It's a good time to start somehting up in the mid west or at least to settle into a new life.  

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:15 | Link to Comment loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Hah!  The dumb bunnies of those other countries don't get it... the best way to grow an economy is to change the basis of reported data... if the data is stubbornly crappy, just drop a few items like energy and food, or people who's unemployment has run out are counted as employed, or George Bush's IQ is not 55 it is really 140... see how it works??

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:30 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

PMIs are the most fudged stat, usually used to paint a goldilocks picture.  refer to the US in 2007 and stats at the time.  We have had fudgy PMIs (global) since the start of 2012, from Asia through to Europe.  Now mix that with the most comical NFP printed for a long time (full time decimated vs part time surge), means that revisions coming mths will be brutal.  They are going for broke early 2012.

Desperation.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

No, no. Not UBRIC...  The region that's leading the world out of slowdown is BRICU, and by Bricu, I obviously mean Bricu ezers, Latvia, which has been leveraged a Googolplex times to buy up all of the world's bad debt at 100 cents on the dollar.

Thank you Bricu ezers, thank you.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

the spiders web is a complex stich, this is like a spider spinning a false trail. Good luck.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"..the record-breaking jumps in some of the US Services PMI sub-indices should be treated with all the respect in the world."

Haha, funny one that  ;))

Goldman Sucks, JP Morgan, BoA's turnover is falling faster than any 'service' sector could replace in a decade ...and their profits are an accountancy cooked-book fraud. 

Good luck with 'figures' proving a recovery, especially services which is not a productive sector.. this is the Era of not trusting anyones numbers or happy data

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 21:24 | Link to Comment dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

its unbelievable the stubborness of permabears.  Amaxzing that ZH posted this....and what timing!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 08:19 | Link to Comment Gatts
Gatts's picture

What I find amazing is irrational exuberance. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!