This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Forget Double Dip, The UK Is Now In A Depression
With the Olympics about to kick off in all its glorious celebration, the sad reality of UK's GDP shrinking 0.7% as the empire drops further into a double-dip. As Bloomberg Brief notes, this came along with a 5.2% plunge in construction output as the IMF estimates austerity has cut 2.5% off GDP. What is most concerning is that GDP has fallen for five of the last seven quarters and is now 4.5% below pre-crisis levels. The level of disbelief is palpable though since the BoE sees only a 10% chance of this recession lasting into 2013 and while it estimates that it will take until 2014 before the UK gets back to the 2008 level (magically), we note that that is already longer than it took during The Great Depression.
Source: Bloomberg Brief
»
- 13231 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
calling ben bernmake..pick up the white courtesy phone..
They don't call it "Old Blighty" for nothin'.
Sorry, that line is busy. Geithner is using the phone to contact his bookie.
Congressional Testimony - Tim Geithner Admits Banks (And AIG) Were Bailed Out At Rigged Libor Rates, Costing Taxpayers Billions
nah....he's looking for solace in phone sex............
'Oh Timmy... yes, you've been a BAD bioy.... a VERY bad boy....... oh my. what do we have here? OH MY. you're SUCH a stud.....you're the biggest I've ever seen....oooooh....... more.... MORE.......yes, yes, YES!!!!!!......
....................................Is this going on Visa or Mastercard?''
A depression and a printing press. Ole' Merv and the boys are doing a great job managing the economy.
Well at least their pubs will continue to be their main industry.
Time, gentlemen
Since the smoking ban the pub industry in the UK has been on a death spiral. The only things propping up the UK is continued oil and gas revenue, seemingly endless bankers bonuses (extra if they have commited a criminal act) and London property prices... oh yeah.. and Wills and Kate.
Ben picks up the phone: "between you and me, we are busted, we have no more money, but for the love of god, do not tell anyone."
World's hoping 4 another no-equity Ben-loan 2 get them past this Depression & into the next one.
Don't worry, the Olympics will generate a huge recovery there. What do you mean hosting the Olympics is always a huge flop for the host country? Oh...
technically i dont think the uk is in a depression, but thats because unlike krugman i do not condsider the uk's growth to have been "real" it was just a housing bubble.
What a surprse,
I mean, it's the UK - not London...
They're just not as creative in their lying as the US is. We're magically over 2007 GDP levels with 4 million fewer jobs, 1.4 million fewer homes being built and 4 million fewer cars being sold. But, AAPL sold 8 million gadgets in the US during a 3 month time period means all is well.
GDP includes government spending and financial services in the number. There is a whole lot more of those two making up GDP now than in 2007.
If I give you $10, and you give me the $10 back, $20 in financial service took place. Since you held the $10 once and I held it twice, there is actually $30 in income recorded. Giving us a grand total of $50 recorded to GDP.
Doesn't matter that only $10 really actually exists. As long as you just move shit around, it counts as commerce.
Yes, that is actually how the economy grew over $10trillion without the labor force and average income growing much at all.
Unfortunately that $50 is debt and we only have one of those $10 bills to pay it off.
Awesome. I've a $10 bill in my pocket right now. Let's hand it back and forth 16,000 and I can pay off my mortgage.
Can we montize those transactions and then sell the debt as a security? If so, count me in! :-)
And the derivatives based on that $10 are valued at $100,000.........
Geez. Just what they need less income for dental work.
Re : " AAPL gadgets " People are hungry. Plastic, IC chips, pieces of display screen can be fished out of human wastes, wiped and re-eaten. So a IPad can be used for an entire family for weeks. Poorer muppets can use Android devices. With fedgov SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ANDROID PROGRAM, there no need for people to have to eat TANDY.
"We're magically over 2007 GDP levels"
Not according to the chart, above, labeled "Depression" and offered by the author of the posting ("Forget Double Dip, The UK Is Now In A Depression") against which this assertion is made.
Perfect timing for a false flag attack in London!
To get back to the 2008 level would assume that the growth rates from 2000-2008 were sustainable.
Someone must have shot a rocket into space containing most of what was produced in the past decade, or loaded a few giant barges with it and sunk the crap to the bottom of the Marianas Trench. I don't think it is possible that all the crap was actually bought.
It would be pretty funny if James Cameron led a dive to the Marianas and we found that it is no longer the deepest place in the ocean, thanks to a giant man made reef of garbage with "Made in China" stamped on it.
Smashing, you lot cannot even do this right. You leave it up to us Brits,
We are in a depression bitchez!!!!!
And you lot are not. Ever heard of catch up folks? Well come on then, catch us up, the water is fucking great!!
Agreed. We are an example to the world :)
Britain is once again Great - even if it's only for our Great Depression.
All is well. Quick, someone make a speech. Say good things.
Expect that in the Good Ol' USA soon enough.
Be real.... the basics havent't changed there or here since '08..... If you eliminated the manipulation of statistics and massive market pumping you'd see a constant 20+% unemployment and negative GDP with ALL trends flat or down. The only reason we're not seeing the breadlines of he 1930's is foodstamps, long term unemployment and vast increases in programs like Social Security disability. The competition for cans to turn in (at 5 cents each) is brutal. It's recycling day here and the number of guys triolling through before the truck comes by is at record levels (the early bird - at 5AM - got the worms here)
MOPE is all about illusion - smoke and mirrors - and that doensn't work forever
Santelli had a good line: "What's the difference between Europe and the U.S.? About 6 years". I personally don't think it will be that long.
Just like the 'world's tallest building' curse (which signifies an imminent recession), there is also an 'Olympics curse' which punishes national hubris.
Britain is getting it now ... and Brazil is headed for economic doom in 2016.
All Olympic hosting victories are pyrrhic victories.
"...bad food, worse weather, Mary-fucking-Poppins. London!"
The weather is shit but the food is whatever you like - Indian, Italian, Chinese, Japanese. Nothing wrong with the food over here as long as you choose somewhere decent to eat. If you really want to go upmarket there's always McDonalds, KFC and Burger King.
Burglar King
Nicely done, well played. Great film too.
Looks like QE isn't the answer.
Which vindicates the German point of view,.
I guess home equity and deficit spending trends can't last forever.
And the UK is now a net energy importer.
And the boomers are retiring.
Game over.
Decline in GDP exceeding 10% at the onset: check.
A recession lasting 2 or more years: check.
Depression economics indeed.
Congrats UK you get to join many of your fellow Euro brethren in what is becoming a very popular club as of late.
You think we are any better off ?.
The UK is giving out honest figures(strange I know), unlike the US counterparts.
Only one of my clients is really doing well,coutesey of EPA regulations.
Cheat Street may be doing fine ,but the real economy is in intensive care.
I know many working unpaid to keep things going.
Small businesses are about to " pull the plug", by saying fuck it.
Right, what took a year to happen in the 1930's now is measured in nanoseconds....pay no mind to eclownomists 'timeline estimates' theyre totaly meaningless in todays SKYNET based world.
Release the Chavs!
So can we finally start using the capital "D"?
QE3 ? .... "D2" ?
So can we finally start using the capital "D"?
Anyone with half a brain has been using the D word.(if they are honest)
Call it what it is,not what you want the sheeple to think it's not.(the sheeple have ZERO clue the real UE rate is pushing 23%.)
Most here, do not live in denial..........the rest are living Egypt,by that other form fo the word.
www.cash-4-crown-jewels.com, ye oldde bitchef
FTSE bottomed at 3,500, now at 5,500, hardly a "depression"
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^FTSE&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=b&c=
However, the gold mining industry is clearly in a depression, as many of those stocks are still grinding it out near multi-year lows.
RIGHT you got it! As long as a manipulated fraud INDEX is wherever, then thats all that matters! GEE youre so smart n all!!
However, the gold mining industry is clearly in a depression, as many of those stocks are still grinding it out near multi-year lows.
Not for much longer Bot.
Showing how bad things are - there's no shortage of people willing to work for 1 cent a word perpetuating the official line - "all is well..... things are getting better... gold is bad..... '
One of the few growth fields is online media manipulation - hiring people to 'develop online personas to post in various forums material that supports defined positions.' There are numerous classifieds defining such positions. You've got paid 'reviews' for business, restaurants, travel AND political candidates and parties, and far more. Even the Fed and Pentagos are involved - it's all about a broadened manipulation of perceptiopns.
Piers Morgan interviewed Tony Blair and they fixed it ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Truth Discovery Mechanism
UK has had $600 billion in QE or about $9500 per man, woman and child.
I wonder what the GDP would have been sans the massive QE?
Probably about the same as it is now - all that QE went straight to the fucking banks.
Well, seriously, what does the U.K. produce these days in the sense of real, physical wealth? They're running out of oil. Do they have any coal left? I think they still have a little bit of aerospace. Their beer is pretty good. Say what you will about the U.S., at least we still export food, Boeing airplanes, John Deere tractors, etc. The U.K. economy, from what I read, seems largely dependent on London being the financial fraud capital of the world.
Nobody could have predicted that Contractionary Austerity policies would be contractionary. But, Cameron and Osbourne are committed and ONIT! They're going to keep pushing their contrationary policies until the ponies deliver growth... because, magic!
The Olympics.
They've got that going for them.
Unfortunately hosting the Olympics is a net money loser...oh well.
Just to make SURE that Britain is well and truly FUCT, Cameron says that the killing blows are yet to come:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jul/26/david-cameron-government-...
David Cameron has delivered a "clear and unequivocal message" that the government will stand by its deficit reduction plan and "finish the job".
When is the Fed going to bailout the UK?
I wish we could have the NeoFeudal Olympics. Events include:
"Workers Under the Buss Toss"
"Yachting"
"Taxation Accounting Fraud"
"Lack of Accountability Contest"
"Precious Metal Manipulation"
"Servant Triathelon"
Where's Nigel Farage to deflect this news by pointing out bad the rest of Europe is doing?
RELAX man! We can FIX it! I Can Fix It - YouTube
There are more than 100 million Americans on government welfare. There are 120 millionish jobs, 50 million of which are part time. More than 30 million people work more than one job.
So there are more people on welfare than actually work in America. That is a 100% true statement.
How anyone can actually claim the USA is not in a depression and that current stock levels are justified, is speaking pure insanity. If we were in battle, and that person was my CO, I would shoot him in the head to save my unit. If I didn't we would all be killed due to his insanity.
"How anyone can actually claim the USA is not in a depression and that current stock levels are justified..."
What an odd statement. Stock levels don't require justification. They are what they are. If you think they are too high, go short. If you think stock levels are being artifically pumped and you are right, those levels won't last, so once again, go short.
If you represent that current stock prices aren't justified, you should be able to quantify what prices are justified. I doubt you can, so you are just venting.
Not that there's anything WRONG with that!
I submit that worry over justification is meaningless. For us there is no justice, there is only the making or losing of value. The market goes where it goes, and we try to use the movements to our advantage. Good luck to you. I've spent decades working around the crooks in the markets, they've always been there and they always will be there.
Concern over a major depression is certainly justified and preparations are in order for that. Again, good luck to you.
Stocks 'are what they are' because of MASIVE infusions of free capital into the banking and financial sysgtem by the government and ZERO interest rates. All that money - and the little 'savings left' to the average AMerican in their 4091K's and elsewhere - has gone into the market trying for SOME level of return that outpaces teh REAL rate of inflation.
For the banks it's a no-brainer. They get money form the Fed at 0% so anything they make is profit. Leverage it at 30 to one and you've got an explanation for the recent profits in banking... oh wait... things aren't weorking out so well How much has JP Morgan lost lately?
You'd have done better taking all that money and rewriting every mortgage in the US at 3% - you'd have people stayiong in houseds and a steady rate of retun back to the government, along with some economic stability for the 99%. Hell for the amounts given to the financial industry you could have given everyone a damn house. But 'socialism' is only for the wealthiest and our corporate overlords.
Time for a Jeffery Archer story to draw attention from the coming oh shit.
Agreed - this yesterday asked that very question
http://www.goldmadesimplenews.com/analysis/as-uk-q2-gdp-falls-off-a-clif...
Some good additional UK info
This depression is a peice of piss. I could do another 5 depressions standing on my head.
It's only the beginning though... gonna get a whole hell of a lot worse before it gets any better. I suspect most of us will be long dead before it gets any better.
I suspect that death will be an attractive alternative to what awaits. Can I have my blue pill now please?
I have read some very thoughtful writers who suggest that it may take the UK 15 years to get back to the GDP per capita levels of 2007. It may take even longer.
The basic problem is that UK GDP was phony for a good 15 years. A massive property bubble, combined with a consumer boom built on debt, leverage and borrowing against inflated property and a financial services "boom" by the fraudsters in the City of London is what gave the UK economic "growth" for a good ten years. The entire economy was woefully out of balance. To make matters worse, the state got bigger and bigger and bigger and Comrade Brooooon upped the ante on transfer payments and state hiring (an additional 1 million people got employed by the state between 1997 and 2007).
To get back to sanity, the following things need to happen: (1) massive reduction in the size of the state; (2) a massive debt write-off; (3) big drop in the price of property combined with debt liquidation; (4) a resurrection of export industries/manufacturing and the like; and (5) a massive shrinkage in financial services as a percentage of the economy. But even this may not be enough as half the population has learnt to suck at the teat of the state for its survival (and the state now consumes well over 50 per cent of the economy).
The British Government has done everything in its power to prevent any of the above from happening. And since they have not allowed it to happen, the problems WILL continue. How on earth does Britain get back to "growth" when there is nothing left to grow? Growth comes from innovation, technological improvements and improved efficiencies (leading to high productivity). In a country in which the state keeps sucking out everything the private sector produces, this is impossible. The British are done for.
'Come back'? May as well be figuring how a 747 plunging straight down can just turn up and do some loop de loops.
OK. Send the IMF!
Starship Enterprise using its tractor beam?
Emile, very very well put. Each and everyone of the points uve made I heartily agree with.
But how the hell do you convince people that this is inevitable - whether by design or circumstance. Nobody will agree to a debt jubilee, government dont want smaller finance sector as that industry has corrupted the democratic process. Downsizing the state would be easy if people were paid a decent living wage.
And yes, property is the key to it all. Housing bubbles are the most insidious crimes against society. Housing is the biggest cost of living expense in EVERYBODY'S life. Steep house price inflation wrecks every part of an economy. Only the finance sector has won in this game so far. But the sheep with a stake in an over priced house cant imagine house prices going down, fear it going down and therefor will support moron politicians and central bankers who do everything in their power to prevent the inevitable and very necessary crash in the unsustainable cost of accommodation.
I feel sad :(
You cannot convince the people of anything. It won't happen. The pound has to collapse in an orgy of inflation and then you "might" get reform. But even then I am not optimistic. Seeing what percentage of the population has become totally unemployable, I don't think this will happen. I think about half the people in the UK are now incapable of doing any kind of productive work.
I find is more than mildly amusing that London property is considered a "safe haven." It really is the finance bubble's last hurrah. When the UK sinks totally into the mire, those properties will go down with it. There are already some signs that the top end is starting to crumble under higher taxes. It is a matter of time.
I've never really understood why the UK should have a higher per capita GDP than Portugal. Both countries do not produce a lot but one gets considered a top notch economy and the other doesn't. About time that imbalance was redressed.
Well said. But we can't blame it all on Broooon. bLiar was the man in charge when most of the damage was being done.
Brooooon was the Chancellor of the Exchequor. I think we call it a tie and blame it on both. They're both slimeballs anyway.
was LaRouche right? July 25th, 2007 he said there is no possible non collapse. 6:55 .. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdEh-7NPn-Y
the post olympic effect on UK economy, once the dust has settled and the debt piles up in DEPRESSION times and QE chimes, will be ominous. Especially as now the chickens are coming home to roost in the Libor/ Barclays/HSBC scams which will effect the CIty for many years, making it a shadow of its past. As the battle for Britain will be fought in total denial of admitting scam and of moving it to virtuous captial accumulation. This move means a blood bath accross all capitalist world of which City and WS are the dead nerve centers.
Being in Los Angeles in 1984, I've always been quite suspect of the whole 'olympic economic boom' thing, as LA was a ghost town during the olympics. I remember working at Disneyland (high school job) and the park being staffed for 75,000 - in other words, at capacity, and only 12,000 patrons showing up.
I need to go to London for a meeting next week, and I was worried about finding a hotel. Hell, there are 5 star hotels available for under $200 on hotwire.
This Olympics is going to be an economic bust.
Not if you run a security company.
Nothing in today's economy says, "bullish" like a good ole fashions government contract!
Hell, just hire temps for your security, and eat the overhead costs (at the expense of workers). Win-win for CEOs!
Nobody I know is going to the Olympics. Nobody I know went to the last World Cup either.
Besides the (obvious) families of the athletes and the corporate sponsors, who actually goes?
Bueller?
Tyler will change the 'K' in the title above to an 'S' when the third quarter GDP is reported in October.
Well sombody or something is buying a shit load of buses in the UK......
ACEA
In June, new bus and coach registrations increased by 16.5%, boosted by the good performance recorded in the UK (+97.9%), Germany (+39.0%) and France (+24.5%). The Spanish (-15.4%) and Italian (-21.5%) markets declined. From January to June, the segment of buses and coaches was the only one to expand (+5.2%), driven by the upturn in the UK (+67.2%) and Germany (+7.1%). Results in France (-11.8%), Italy (-30.0%) and Spain (-38.8%) were negative”
UK Bus regs Jan – June : 4,473 !!!!!!!!!
Germany Jan – June :2,409
France ,Italy , Spain combined :4,581
The IEA in their latest July report talks of a flattening of European efficiency gains because of suppressed investment in capital stock……
Also Jet fuel in the UK is up…..increased tourists……increased need for tour buses I guess.
Video of the GDP contraction in the UK for Q2.
youtu.be/xNY1U8gSH_8
Dragged down mainly by a contraction of the construction sector.
The absurd rise of the service sector relative to the production sector can be seen at the end of the video.
The UK farms global money flows and thats about it really
This is exactly what Krugman predicted would result from the idiotic austerity policy in the UK, and idiots on ZH still ridicule Krugman. What does it take to prove austerity doesn't work in a recessionary environment?
Yes. Clearly the problem is that the Bank of England isn't printing money fast enough.
Krugman is the government's court jester. He provides good entertainment.
"Austerity"? Did you know that public debt in the UK is up 40 per cent in the last two and a half years? What fucking austerity?
Exactly. When I meet the line of argument that austerity is proven to have failed I ask for some concrete proof that it was actually implemented and government spending was truly reduced.
I have not yet gotten it. Nobody making that argument seems able to show anything beyond an unsourced "news" article based on statements from politicians.
If UK government spending were reduced in the real world and not just in the claims of politicians it should be a simple matter to prove. If the poster above claiming that austerity is occuring in the UK is correct, they should be able to show this with ease.
Does anyone claiming that austerity is real have some concrete links to UK annual deficit and cumulative debt (preferably from the UK equivalent of their Treasury and showing FY 2010,11, and 12) proving that debt is decreasing?
If not, why the hell are you making the argument?
So, the solution to an asset bubble is to keep the asset bubble inflated? You must be a Princeton Economist. Well done...
You might want to consider what happens when there is no support for said asset prices. Perhaps, just perhaps, this isn't a macro function of employment?
Don't hurt yourself thinking about this though. I mean, we wouldn't want to effect your ability to get tenure.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqY_DYtp60s
Yousa be wun smart sock-puppet!
Even a broken clock (analog of course) is right two times a day, no?
Well there is some limited manufacturing coming back to the Sterling area but not much such as the Vauxhall ellesmere plant , increased mini production and this.
“More than 900 jobs will be created and thousands more secured after Transport Secretary Justine Greening approved a £4.5bn contract to supply Britain with the next generation of intercity trains.
In a major boost to the UK’s manufacturing industry, 596 railway carriages will be built at a brand new train factory in the north east of England.
Agility Trains, a consortium made up of Hitachi and John Laing, has been awarded the contract to build and maintain the trains under the Intercity Express Programme (IEP), the project to replace Britain’s Intercity 125 trains with new higher capacity modern trains………..”
Also talk of supplying the crossrail system with trains from this future train factory.
www.rail.co/
Replacing these locos then……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4CybduRq2k
http://www.dft.gov.uk/
Rail is really the only growth Industry in the UK now.
double post
The U.S. is also in a Depression don't kid yourself
Do Two Recessions Equal One Depression?
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/07/25/do-two-recessions-equal-one-depression/
If all the government spending on preparation for the Olympics is no longer flowing, then they are in big economic trouble in the not too distant future.
Where the hell are Gilbert and Sullivan when you really need them:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0Y2WZAq8CQ
Problem is the politicians have abandoned the people, they only seem to care about banks and the markets (London).
A vast amount of people are on some kind of benefit be it job seekers (soon to be changed) housing benefit or disability. Looking around everyday you see a human resource just going to waste, its a crime.
As for surviving on our Oil and Gas you only have to look at the fall in production to see how that one is panning out.
I fear for my country, its on borrowed time.
The final deindustrialisation UK bout post Suez ,1960s ,70s Labour boffin destroying goverment and post Maggie and Lawson show was the post 1990 "Dash for Gas" entropy experiment which finally killed a almost dead British Nuclear Industry.
The Brits can now only fall back on 19th century railway cuttings.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varsity_Line
Governments should borrow at current cheap rates and put the unemployed to work rebuilding productive infrastructure. The resulting multiplier effect will revive their economies. Instead, they are doing the reverse, laying off workers and letting their infrastructure crumble, while indulging in magical thinking about "austerity."
Much of the developed world seems to be in the grip of a cruel and stupid commitment to punishing the weakest members of society and enriching wealthy criminals and moral defectives.
As can been seen in the above video much of the contraction is becuase of a decline in the construction sphere - housing , blocs & stuff etc....
This has no real productive capacity.....it was developed to capture external capital flows which are now decreasing.
However This concrete production has internal productive capacity.
Railway Gazette June 29
“UK: Work is set to begin shortly on the construction of a concrete sleeper plant in Doncaster which will supply more than half of Network Rail’s annual needs. Production is scheduled to start in spring 2013.
The factory on the former Woodyard site will be owned and funded by Network Rail, which is seeking to protect supplies and reduce costs by increasing competition and introducing modern production methods.
The plant will be built and operated by the Trackwork Moll consortium of local firm Trackwork and German company Leonhard Moll. The consortium will procure and own the specialised production machinery, and has a 10-year contract to supply sleepers to Network Rail.
Building the concrete sleeper factory is a strategic decision for Network Rail, according to Martin Elwood, director of the infrastructure manager’s National Delivery Service. There are currently two UK suppliers, Cemex and Tarmac, but Tarmac is seeking to leave the market and only retains a small presence to serve an existing Network Rail contract which runs to March 2013.
The UK sank long ago imo. as an aside note, my inlaw who lives there needed a total hip replacement...put on a waiting list for 2 1/2 years.......I knew when that Schmuck sold UK's gold they had piss poor leadership. Hopefully it changes for them.
I've lived in the UK my whole life, and times are indeed getting tougher.
I'm actually thinking about trying to smuggle myself into Somalia in the back of a truck, where hopefully I claim state benefits. Hey, the grass is always greener!
you all may mock today.
but friday danny zombie boil and trouble will cook a witches brew that will change everything.
you see jesus is so well pre modern.
the lord mighty satan has all the cool dudes and the bankers.
with the power of the billions watching and energy harvesting.
a holographic vision and spectacle will be seen to bring awe and wonderment make you cry and put you on your knees not before general zod but lucifer himself.
look to the skys sheep
jerusalem is coming home
jerusalem is coming home.
either that or mossad will just wave a false flag and blow that sucker sky high.
fairwell stinky shitpile london.
your rape and pillage is coming to an end
We must get rid of George Osborne period.
Yippee we will get a new Beatles and Woodstock!