Forget The NYSE Shorts, And Be Very Afraid Of The Resumption In Bearish EUR Sentiment (And Squeeze)

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Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:54 | 1798560 AladdinSaneGirl
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All i know is, i was really glad today to see some funds in my trading account ... first dividends from Russian gold explorer/producer Highland Gold. The rest of it is dire. 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:54 | 1798561 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture
Fitch says any EU plan won't solve ratings woes, 21 October 2011, by Enda Curran - Sydney (MarketWatch) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fitch-says-any-eu-plan-wont-solve-ratings-woes-2011-10-21

Any new deal to shore up the euro-zone likely won't be enough to relieve pressure on the region's sovereign ratings, though France's AAA stamp is safe, a top executive at Fitch Ratings said.

--Euro zone ratings set to remain under pressure, even if a deal is agreed

--France's AAA is safe, no plans to change

--US lawmakers need to cut spending to avoid a negative outlook

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:59 | 1798573 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

Bwah, Fitch is French owned.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:02 | 1798587 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

S&P will donkeypunch France into oblivion. It all goes down soon, literally.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:52 | 1798738 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Indeedy:

France Likely to Lose Top Rating in Stressed Economic Scenario, S&P Says, 21 October 2011, by John Glover (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-20/france-likely-to-lose-top-ratin...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:20 | 1798628 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

The market knows what the rating are.  Fuck the agencies, they are irrelevant.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 06:40 | 1799703 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

and, according to a euroland official, could be subject to banning in the case of bailed out nations.  next up, official banning of reality.  oh wait ....  

went to get the citation and i see it right below and hours earlier.  oh well, it sure does crystalize official thinking.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:55 | 1798563 Irish66
Irish66's picture

And I thought I was alone

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:00 | 1798566 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Yellen wants QE3. If that becomes a topic over the weekend all (EUR) bets are off. We might even breakthrough 1.40 if the QE3 rumors and their derivatives take off in earnest. I'm lost, I'll sit out for the weekend and pick up Asian session Monday.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:22 | 1798634 agent default
agent default's picture

QE3 will happen, but probably early 2012.  I think it may be timed with an ECB QE in order for the exchange rate to remain more or less put, and not panic the masses.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:09 | 1798724 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The Nancy Libtard wants more Keynesian QE? Never saw that coming. /sarc

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:58 | 1798568 LawsofPhysics
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"That is of course, unless reality finally manifests itself, the market realizes that all European bail out plans are unmathematical hodgepodge, and the EUR trades down to its fair value somewhere well lower"

Well, then we know what the answer is don't we?

Reality to be suspended infinitely - BTFD.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:40 | 1798696 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

New World Order:  Leverage the shit out of everything....live the hi life....party and spend....hubris and excesses...don't fight it like peeps here on zero hedge....accept the inevitable of death by gluttony.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:58 | 1798570 maxw3st
maxw3st's picture

I see no reason not to be short something which is fundamentally overvalued. As long as the game continues, and the Euro continues to rise, I will remain short. IMO any further increases are just a delay of the inevitable and create a higher point from which to profit. 1.40 looks sweet, 1.50 sweeter still. Squeeze on that dollar bears.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:04 | 1798596 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I agree.  I wouldn't advise anyone to go heavily short at any point (unless the news demands it) but each move we make upwards you should consider a small increase in your short position.  I added to my SPXU and SQQQ position today.  If we continue the ramp up, I'll add some more.  Unless we get QE3 tomorrow, the market is going to plunge at some point.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:14 | 1798616 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Don't we already have an additional 400 billion of QE coming into the system?  QE3 is already happening.  What am I missing here?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:29 | 1798853 whstlblwr
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It's a good way to blow out margin account. Two rules in market that can work: when trader comes on blog self-satisfied for losing prices, run in opposite direction. Or when RobotTrader bragging from bottom or top, also run. You see these both conflicting right now. This guy above can't wait for better shorts price and Robot brags about big long.

Dollar cost averaging works with patience, not every rise is to short. I know most here know this but have to wait week before add to positions sometimes ten days. Someone say the market goes up 70 percent of time, I don't know if true, but careful investor finds out and only takes long positions adding at every plunge.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:36 | 1799055 GiantVampireSqu...
GiantVampireSquid vs OWS UFC 2012's picture

only takes long positions adding at every plunge

pleanty of those buying opportunities comming right up.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:36 | 1798686 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Fundamentally overvalued relative to what?  The US Dollar?  Is it possible to fundamentally overvalue something against the US dollar (even if it's comparing confetti to confetti)?  This is a competitive devaluation game, do you really think Bennie is going to sit on the sidelines and let Europe win this one?  You must be completely fucking crazy, living under a rock, or just flat out retarded.  Weak dollar = ramped /ES.  The end.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 20:35 | 1799192 philipat
philipat's picture

PPP for EUR/USD is about 1.35 so we are seeing very minor moves around this level actually?

PS. The BIg Mac index no longer works so this does not apply to buying a Big Mac in Paris. Not that anyone other then "The Accidental trader" would actually WANT to buy a Big Mac in Paris?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:01 | 1798577 Triple A
Triple A's picture

wake me up when this is all over

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:30 | 1798661 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Why?  You'd be alone.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:01 | 1798578 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

When the EFSF comes together, Greece defaults, and the banks are bailed out, then the scare will be over and the Euro will rise. The USD is deteriorating at a scary pace. QE3 is going to be announced in a couple weeks with the purchases of MBS. That refi program is coming shortly. And that's just what we know of. I can't wait to see a surprise come along.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:01 | 1798582 reload
reload's picture

Anybody know the yen net long/short position size?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:05 | 1798598 Youri Carma
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Japan May Spend Extra $52 Billion to Cope With Yen Gains, Documents Show, 20 October 2011, by Kyoko Shimodoi and Toru Fujioka (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-20/japan-may-spend-26-billion-countering-yen-pain-document-shows.html

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:04 | 1798590 Pretorian
Pretorian's picture

Honestly if the EU clowns find the way to permanently kik the can down the road as US does with deficit, I see no reason of holding US$. Reason: Many bmw's and Merced on US roads but non American cars on Europe roads.No serious manufacturing except gadgets called Apple.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:47 | 1799087 thriftymost
thriftymost's picture

Excellent point. Same thing here in China too: lots of German cars on the roads, but precious few American ones.  The taxicab I rode in the other day was a Fiat.  Gotta be Euro-bullish when the Chinese cab driver chooses Italy over the States--there're just too darned many of 'em. 

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 20:38 | 1799198 winning
winning's picture


LOL .. GM and FORD are both in top 10 for world wide auto sales (outside US). BMW and Mercedes arent even in the top ten ...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:03 | 1798593 wmd
wmd's picture

been short since 1.40, continue adding in this "rally", looking for 1.20 minimum

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:05 | 1798597 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Time to scoop up some more silver...physical that is bitchez.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:13 | 1798614 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

Not to sound like Dennis Gartman but I'm buying gold with Euros on this melt up.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:08 | 1798605 adr
adr's picture

My favorite part of this charade is I think we had the shortest bear market in history. Are we going to have confirmation of a bear market and bull market within three weeks?

And we go spinning, spinning, spinning, round and round and round. When we get off nobody knows.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:15 | 1798617 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Never was a bear market, only a correction.

When we broke down to new lows and took out all support, I was leaning towards a re-test of the March 2009 lows if the acceleration continued.

But this looks like a repeat of Summer 2010, just another huge fakeout engineered by the PigMen.

Here's the shocker:  SPY is only down about 10% with the worst economic conditions in 75 years, the worst financial crisis in Europe in 150 years, and weeks upon weeks of people selling equities and buying bonds.

What happens when things improve and money starts leaving bonds and fleeing back into stocks?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:19 | 1798624 gulf breeze
gulf breeze's picture

You never said we would test March  09 lows you just talk about gold.  You post the same idiot trool food on the bear forum.  The mens restroom needs cleaning at your branch.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:36 | 1798687 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

"What happens when things improve and money starts leaving bonds and fleeing back into stocks?"

If it hasn't happened by now after trillions of taxpayer money to prop up the markets, it never will.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:39 | 1799060 GiantVampireSqu...
GiantVampireSquid vs OWS UFC 2012's picture

What happens when things improve and money starts leaving bonds and fleeing back into stocks? 

Hell will freeze over, and pigs will fly.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:12 | 1798610 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

38 consecutive days with -1000 TICK readings, a new record.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TICK&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37322057532

Surprises are going to be on the upside.

For example, somebody "made their year" already, if they were fully positioned in Harman International and Seagate Technology, up 20% and 28% respectively today alone.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:13 | 1798612 gulf breeze
gulf breeze's picture

And some dumb ass blew their account up going long @ 12700 on dow and buying bank stock for last 6 months.  Oh  I forgot you never post trades just rear view mirror 15 min

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:18 | 1798619 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Don't blame you for being angry.  You have probably been on the wrong side of the market for weeks now.

Most guys who were short the Euro, short U.S. equities, and long bullion and/or gold stocks have been summarily executed and have seen their trading accounts vaporized.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:22 | 1798630 Bear
Bear's picture

Amen ... vaporized is a good term

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:22 | 1798631 gulf breeze
gulf breeze's picture

I am not angry.  I had my best year ever.  I made my year on ZSl.   please post some trades so we can fade.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:06 | 1798780 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

L0L!!!   tyler:   all fiat bets are off!

weak hands?  we're taliking fiat and fat-fingered FX follies & madness! 

sell the 30-year!  buy railroads? 

we don't want to get summarily executed, again! 

that robo_T is long on vapor, BiCheZ!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:37 | 1798690 homersimpson
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Don't bother responding to Robo. He only trades after the fact, never before. The best Monday Morning QB ever on ZH.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:43 | 1798905 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Ok, let's test Robo girl at little bit.

In 1 week, where will SPY be?

I say 116. Robo?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 21:50 | 1799324 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Very good. You picked up on what i like to call hindsight trading, or myth trading. Notice how the stories contain all of the loosing bets as a group, which is regurgitated when the market reverses. Always on the right side of the bet. ;) Retards are funny like that..

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:17 | 1798618 doggings
doggings's picture

timbEUR!!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:20 | 1798622 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the eurotard bear raid makes sense. the eurotard mucketty mucks are too busy meddling in the sovereign bond markets and worrying about future bank bailouts and banning financial shorts to defend the broader stock markets. the bernank is too busy funneling money to his criminal cohorts to give a flying fig. even true believers are exiting the euro and buying usa treasuries or else buying german bunds.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:22 | 1798629 PulauHantu29
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US Money Supply Surges Surges 33% in 4 Months

 

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=nid4i7n6&v=001zHmPEHN...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:30 | 1798662 s2man
s2man's picture

See ZH post, earlier today.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!