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From Worst To First - S&P Has Best Day Of 2012 Shortly After Worst
Three days after posting its biggest single-day loss in seven months, it makes perfect sense in this nonsensical market for the S&P 500 e-mini futures to post their best gain in six months (a 4-sigma drop to a 3-sigma gain). Volume was heavy (and we note came in size at the end). Financials went berserk with MS and BofA ripping around 8% higher along with Energy and Industrials all up near 3% today. The biggest jumps was pre-European close, but the very late day surge which just seemed ridonculous (and did disconnect stocks from other asset classes) dragged everything to close at the highs (with ES +2.25% and Dow +280pts). Just remind us why again? No meat from Draghi, but more pavlovian-bell-based hope for tomorrow's Bernanke speech? If that's the case, then why did the Beige Book's much-more positive tone than expected drive gold (QE-hope-fading) significantly lower and leave stocks and treasury yields, at their highs and the USD at its lows. Bonds are 18-22bps higher in yield this week now (with 5Y outperforming only 10bps wider as maybe the 5Y is now the new cash). Gold underperformed its commodity peers as Silver outperformed and Oil and Copper leaked higher with the weaker USD (now down 0.74% on the week). IG and HY credit underperformed as stocks (and HYG) took off into the close and CONTEXT (a proxy for broad risk assets) disconnected lower from equity's ebullience at the end of the day after being dragged higher for much of the day.
S&P 500 e-mini futures saw a swing from a 4-sigma loss to a 3-sigma gain in the last 3 days...
The major financials were the stand-outs - especially the totally 'safe' MS and BofA now (have you seen the discount to tangible book? </sarc>)...
Equities (and HYG) surged into the close leaving investment grade and high yield credit spread markets in the dust...
leaving HYG its most expensive relative to fair-value (lower pane) in two weeks (orange arrow) and SPY its most expensive relative to HYG since the end of April...
and compared to broad risk assets, equities also disconnected into the close...
but it was gold that gave up the QE3-hope first as bonds and the USD dragged along by stocks' supremacy ended at their highs (low for USD)...
Around the European close today and the US close, very heavy volume and much-larger-than-average trade size (lower pane) flushes came in as we filled the gap to the day-session close from pre-NFP last week and then into the highs of that day at the close of today...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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Rally just to divert attention from Scott Walker
... and the Diebold voting machines, they must have had.
The Snorg Meh camel toe is back!!!!
>> Snorg "Meh" camel chick (w/oversized sunglasses)
>> Snorg "glass is always full" barefooted red head
I still like the original brunette the best. I would fuck the red head for sure though. And the MEH girl. I'd hit that too. Yeah whatever fuck it. That's what I say about everything these days.
maybe someone should keep an eye on graham summers (phoenix capital)
Can I get some hi-beams to go with that camel-toe?
Sure love Meh Snorography
It's all Bullshit! They can kick the can down the road for years yet.
Possibly, but in a short-term tactical sense, they needed to do something - we were dangerously close to the point where financial market stories would have to start saying "correction"
After being blitzed by the markets over the last 4 years, I finally got one right. (Still in the hole though.)
You'll have that, when the rumor is FOUR TRILLIONS DOLLARS of FREE MONEY from Obam's Stash.
"FOUR TRILLIONS DOLLARS of FREE MONEY from Obam's Stash"
NO, trillions more from YOUR and MY stash! WE owe the debts accrued.
Buck Fernankie!
The medicine is working. The economy contracted 6.8pc in 2009 and another 4pc in 2010, but bounced back to grow 3.1pc last year. The IMF has been repaid and, in February, the country regained its investment grade credit rating after Fitch raised it from the "junk" status of BBB- to BB+.
But compared with Ireland, which has seen national debt soar from 11pc to 96pc of GDP after bailing out bank bondholders rather than cutting them loose, Iceland has been an amazing tale. It may have been so small as to be irrelevant to the global financial system, but the IMF has said there are lessons to be learned. Spain, whose banks pose a much greater risk than its public finances, is a case in point.
Iceland has taken its medicine and is off the critical listhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9312181/Iceland-has-t...
If things keep going this good, I might retire at 84!
PAF, I envy you.Gotta go on till I hit 90 or croak.
My friend, you need to discover the stock market! It's a miracle balloon of everlasting swell!
But you said in the morning ECB sees inflation. Deus Ex OFF and bath salts wearing off. Great call.
I think the bath salts will eat the happy face of the markets today. They should be getting a new dose soon.
methinks youB raaahtOn, swanny!
that "soon" is a bit TBD tho
slewie is of the op-onion that we may see the "traders" backing hurredly and somewhat defensively into Ts & cash (and PMs, but not for the same "reasons" as today) by friday close when all the bravefarts will scurry for cover once the weekend barrrrosectomy and agelic responses are ready forPrimeTime next weak-end
but: mebbe this is THE bottom and the new beginning of the next BIG leg of Robo_t's bull... ..shit... zombiemarkette
place yer bets! the wheel won't stop till fry-daZe close
trust me!
Price tells you all you need to know, BTFD...
Please clarify for this beginner what you mean by "price tells you all you need to know" in this case? thanks
Stocks started looking like a bottom two days ago, commodities started to pick up yesterday stuff like copper and sugar. Today market rips, I wasn't expecting such a massive rip but the turn around isn't really that surprising, just the magnitude. Expect it to continue a bit longer as US equities aren't the only thing that have been reversing...
this seems like an opportune place for me to inject my slewienomics pop quiz!
Q: what (if anything, of course) come after risk0n?
now, don't panic! this is open book and take all the time you need, ok? and, yes, this also relates to why a "trader" might BTFD when this answer came around and: goes just a tad too far too fast, according to the indicatorzzzz..."
and here's a clue for the many clueless douchebags who have erroneously ended up here while trying be cool or something: [risk_ff]
and, good luck, BiCheZ!
remember [if you still have that capacity (i.e.: don't watch TV)]: everything is pretty much as we say unhhh,...
Get ye back to the Fisher thread.
Hope rally number 872. All the sheep this way please... follow the green line.. that's it..
Reload the shorts around 1350 and fire away.
I'm waiting for weakness around there and will load back up. This rally won't last long but there's not much point holding on through it. There's not really any news that will happen to cause the market to lose 10% in a day so you have time to build in on the short side
See, everything is fixed.
S&P 500 e-mini futures saw a swing from a 4-sigma loss to a 3-sigma gain in the last 3 days...
Four sigma probability = 0.0003%; three sigma probability = 0.13%. Possible explanations:
1) manipulation
2) wrong distribution (+ manipulation)
3) are you feelin' lucky, punk (+ manipulation)
4) you've discovered plutonium by accident* (+ manipulation)
*credit George Kastansa (link below)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6_pv_vRHKI&feature=related
And i thought we just sandbagged two days of bill auctions.
I like yours better though.
Stability!
The only thing that would top today's action is if tomorrow a hawkish Bernanke speech sends stocks ripping higher.
Back to worst, back to first, back to worst and back to first...Up down, up down. I think I'm getting sick...anyone have any dramamine?
Fuck dramamine. Edible THC will stop that uneasing (get it?) stomach. It'll give you quite an appetite too.
Slapshot bitchez!!!! That'll move the chains!
You can't lose with STAWKS
STAWKS 4 LIFE!!!!!!!!!!
Stocks must be on to something, the Spanish auction tomorrow should be going great (ECB was saying they might start buying in the open market again right).
Sandy Villere on Bloomberg saying Gold is a bubble and if you stick to a buy-and-hold strategy for the last 20 years will give you a 7% return, is that calculated for inflation and really if you would lay out the same chart for Gold those 7% would not look so impressive.
Also recommending a stock that just had a parabolic move, the reporters at Bloomberg could at least TRY to ask some critical questions.
Chop that guy up and send him home in a box.
Well, just wait until the parabolic stock move goes downwards bitches!
To me this has little to nothing to do with Bernanke's speech tomorrow. First of all, its a speech, not an FOMC meeting. Although, I realize the speech could set a precedent for the next FOMC meeting. However, the data isn't poor enough to warrant new QE or even extended Twist. Bernanke is well aware that interest rates are at 200 year lows. That means a new round of QE or Twist would have minimal effect, and the action may look political in an election year (especially since Europe is in recession and their central bank just did nothing), Twist isn't even over yet... There's a dozen reasons why Bernanke will simply take a defensive stance and say "If conditions deteriorate we'll be ready to act." Nothing more.
This rally was a combination of short-covering, a mere relief rally initiated by hopes that Germany will give a bag of money to Spain's banks without asking for anything in return. I don't see Germany letting Spain get away without concessions.
This rally could last to the end of the week, but I expect another leg down before Greeks go to the polls.
After the Greek election the G20, ECB, Fed, BOJ, PBOC, etc. will initiate a giant orgy of stimulus, and stocks will go ape shit. It'll be temporary (maybe a few month rally), but then reality will begin to set in as the punch bowl dries up again. Rinse, repeat, until we get to the climax where the can can no longer be kicked.
PPT Motto: Never...Ever...Allow A Follow-Through After A Down Day...Never!...Well, does not apply to gold/silver...With gold/silver never, ever allow a follow-through to a up day or high-volume breakout...NEVER!
now that is what central planners call "stabiliteeeeeee"
Just one more day that justifies the use of revolutionary force with extreme prejudice!
maybe the markets got a whiff of the supreme's striking down obama's, 'affordabe care act' - [5-4] along party lines
to be continued?
jmo
There is no money to be made on fundamentals therefore contrived volatility is providing the illusion of reasoned investment.
These coxxukkers just pump straight up on no volume. Fukking incredible. No surprise here. I think the subsequent quick failure will be a horrifying surprise for most. We've entered the cyclical bear within the secular bear. Bearware!
I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet.
Hocus pocus, abracadabra....LEVITATE!
Wild gyrations reminiscent of the market 4 years ago.
Um, the markets are machines. The US stock market is the one hand they want you to watch, responding to pure whimsy, when credit and the 10YR is the one you should be watching.
Quick sell stocks, buy gold ... no, no ... quick sell gold, buy stocks ... Greece is saved, no Greece is doomed, no Greece is saved, no Greece is doomed ... it's not even good comedy anymore.
They have to lift the market a little for the upcoming false flag nuke.
Warsaw, London or the Suez Canal ?
DC
I left towards the end of the day with what I thought would be a big enough cushion there would be no way I could be caught up in a late day buying frenzy of algo manipulation. what a joke. If tomm is up I will be surprised. same thing happened last week. why can't any other market besides the us go past and break triend note it only happend on se ( s and P. all else behaved as I would have expected. I expect to wake up and sell it all in the morning, just hope the down in the am isn't too big
I know the plunge protection team when I see it.
Primary dealers trying to make their earnings for the quarter. No more and no less. The Fed has mucked up the stock and bond markets so much and the widespread use now of HFT systems to trade this has become a simple casino. No one could have seen this coming? and when Bernanke disappoints the markets will have a remarkable selloff. Sell in May and go away and come back Labor Day. Nah, just go away this is a joke.
Robot algo fueled bukkake rally.
This is how rallies start, with a big impulse right after a washout low. It's not unusual, or the sign of manipulation; it's the typical "needle bottom" (courtesy, RobotTrader) pattern.
if it turns out to be the bottom I will be surprised. for me it's nota big deal as I will have may ass covered both ways. I have noticed if you track vgk the vanguard european etf. weekly the past three weeks it hits on e3xactly trend line. today it went just a little past. (just enough to trigger algo computer generated buy orders.
the other thing you will see, avery often is about three weeks with higher lows, higher highrs, with then qone week representing the bottom with a drop below that. there were very good reasons for the emerging markets and the euro area to be making lows, based on the charts, not the s and p at all, which reminas way above fairl value.
last october when markets were at this level (the others) the s and p was 1150. I still can't fathom why, and to me that's evidence of something funny. I don't mind putting some cash in europe at this time. even oil at 10 month lows. but when every market behaves as I'd expect, except the s and p something funny is going on.
if you do the charting you will see it is only the us that seems tio open with futures up (not huge) then ramp all day past established trends. almost always either the europeans, or the asains use that to take profits when they wak up having closed their day with a small gain, realize they have made uge gains.
we still don't have a weekly turn around. and vgk hasn't has a weekly turn around.if we follow throughthen fin, I make money, and will be adding on at the weekly low trend line.
if wrong I shall admit it.
I knoew there was going to be a huge effort on vgk to prevent it going below the neck line, so that is expected. the s and p isn't, it isn't close to a real major bottom or any kind of established trned line that makes sense.
I readjusted my charts, but honestly redo them I knew the udn low of last week, wasn't kosher, the lower weekly low wasn't close to the weely low of the prior week. for that you need to chart the two baselines. last yesr we did have a bounce on the s and p at this level with trend line, so that was to be expected, and I think some were caught flat footed last week as it was expected. but the sell of began in europ and asia, not based on us numbers. once more along the vgk line.
In 2008 for a couple months before Lehman collapsed, we had a roller-coaster ride. Ups and downs, 200 to 400 everyday, nobody was sure what was happening, This feels the same. Down 300 tomorrow ??
No need to go back 4 years for a comparison... remember 2011?
DOW up 287 points on RUMORS of the Fed doing something. Just imagine the crash if they don't. Or if they do a QE3 and the effects last a month or two.
The f-ing market is like a heroin junkie. The slightest rumor of more free taxpayer-liable debt-originated heroin to mainline and the scumbags who control the market make sure the "correct" signals are sent with a rip your face off rally.
Multiple Hindenburg Omen coming up...
we should get a pullback today to below 200d ema if the bernank says anything but the candy is coming. the we remain prepared stuff is not enough given the b-book data he may however start talking strong about helping europe - magnanimous, forgiving, bankster loving guy that he is,
All Hail our Bankster-Gangster Overlords and Saviors!
The markets are fixed...