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Former Bundesbank President Weber Warns Germany Will Be On The European Bail Out Hook For Up To 314% Of Its GDP
Anyone wondering why Axel Weber was passed over when picking the next ECB head in exchange for Goldman plant Mario Draghi, only needs to read a piece from Sueddeutsche Zeitung in which the former German central bank head, and future UBS head, confirms he actually does math. As has been said on Zero Hedge since back in July 21, when we actually did the math and realized the EFSF will not work as it will leave Germany footing the bill for all of Europe, Weber in essence said precisely that... but did not stop there. As quoted by Bloomberg, "Former Bundesbank President Axel Weber said the plan to leverage the European Financial Stability Facility increases the likelihood that tax payers have to step in, Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported. Germany’s public debt would rise to 135 percent of gross domestic product if Italy and Spain were to tap the EFSF financial backstop, the newspaper cited Weber as saying in a speech in Frankfurt. As the sole guarantor to the EFSF, Germany could end up with a debt of 314 percent of GDP in an extreme case, Weber said." This in turn brings us back to our own conclusion from 5 months ago: "What happens when an already mortally wounded in the polls Angela Merkel finds herself in the next general election and experiences an epic electoral loss? We will find out very, very shortly." We are happy that finally the Germans are realizing that the opportunity cost to propping up their export sector (the Euro, hence a "weak" DEM) can potentially be the bankruptcy of their country. We wonder how long until someone bypasses that despotic regime in Greece and actually proposes a referendum in Germany, asking the people if they are truly willing to subsidize their corporations in exchange for drowning in debt for millennia? America has already done this and, trust us, it is not pleasant.
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Long Wehrmacht futures
...and Leopard Battle Tanks.
Don't worry folks, just return to the buffet. The iceberg in front of us is a part of the sightseeing-experience.
Deutschen wird entweder wiederum ihre Politiker (und EU "Führer") in Leberwurst, oder sie werden die Leberwurst zu werden.
Das ist einfach eine Tatsache beweisbar durch einfache mathematische Berechnungen.
Es wurde gesagt, es wird der Durchschnitt der deutschen 8 Tausend USD Kosten für die EU zu verlassen und raus aus der Euro-Schäkel, und das ist ein verdammt gutes Schnäppchen, wenn es kostet sie 25 bis 100 mal, dass in der Ehe zu bleiben, und ertrinken durch die schlagenden, sinkende anderen EU-Schulden-a-holics.
Die Europäische Union wird aller Deutschen in Krapfen wenden, eher früher als später.
Bail sofort.
5 years of classes in german and yet, I don't understand a god damn thing..
me too
Of course in HS ... I had a Korean teaching me German. Throw in my southern accent and I'm doomed.
"Throw in my southern accent and I'm doomed."
So the northern Germans think you are from Bavaria?
How do you say Minsky moment in German?
It's from Google Translate.
It (attempts to) states that Germany is far better leaving the EU now than waiting for the inevitable implosion.
An analogy would be to leave Cherobyl sooner rather than later, ex post meltdown.
Given the fact that Germany controls the west (pretty much by the Bawls, Saxe-Coburg Got(c)Ha etc...well, given that fact...nope, can't justify german people suffering. But they have lived very high on the hog for Decades now. Sins of omission sort of, like Citizen USA, whose shearing for NOT sharing time is coming soon.
Perhaps it's just time to pay the piper, nein?
ORI
war-memes-me-iran-israel-uk-us-social-engineering-planted-stories/
Easier said than done.
I'm afraid, your proposal would lead to this:
"Goodbye EU - Hello WWII reparation payments"
Nah... stuff more money into it right now. No delays, pronto, take a Big Number, raise it to the Big Number's Own Power. Double to be conservative. Mark up by 1000000%.
Now Stuff.
Apply copious amounts of every drug known to man since 1453.
Consume way the fuck too much alcohol.
Pretend all will be well tomorrow.
Come to.
Start over again.
So.... Why not post the English version instead??
(For the record... Ich verstehen ein wenig Deutsch.)
Babylon.com translates it as follows (obviously a slightly flawed translation):
"German will be either in turn their politicians (and EU "guide") in liver sausage, or you will be the leberwurst. That is just a fact proven by simple mathematical calculations.
It has been said, it is the average of the german 8 thousand USD cost for the EU to leave and get out of the Euro-Schakel , and that is a damn good deal, if it will cost you 25 to 100 times that in the marriage to remain, and drown by the beating, diminishing other EU-debt-a-Holics.
The European Union will contact all Germans in donuts"... {send all Germans throught the ringer ?},..."sooner rather than later.
Bail immediately"
+1 jelly donut
Let them eat melamine bratwurst.
Trailer trash
This is not German, this is ugly Google translation.
Dont use this shit.
a hint...the last line basically says that sooner of later the EU is going to put Germany in the shitter...in so many words...
you definitely have to improve your German.
8'000 USD to leave the EU? The Germans don't want to leave the EU, they just want to have a hard currency.
Your avatar is deeply disturbing.
It's the equivalent to me wearing a Federal Reserve IOU (aka rough hewn toilet paper or cigar lighting media).
well, there is the difference (may I presume you are from the US?)
You think that CBs are inherently evil - perhaps Governments too?
I think that Governments and Central Banks are not inherently evil - the same way guns are not inherently evil
we might perhaps agree on the fact that CBs are the financial equivalent of an armoury and that monetary inflation is something like a regressive war tax
I hope we agree that the Financial Cartel (TBTF) is what is really rotten in this world, particularly the MegaBanks and their Instruments of Financial Destructions (this includes CDS and most derivatives).
Yes, your Central Bank, the FED, has been taken over by the MegaBanks (that actually founded it). And they have taken over your Treasury, too. And perhaps your Gov.
But this is not a reason for me to say that "only honest money is good" or that this call is going to change something.
In fact, I still have some hopes for the EUR, long term, and a glimmer for the GBP.
Please note that I have lived in several countries over the last decades and some of them had high inflation while a few even had hyperinflation, (if you follow the definition of over 50%).
Yes, I am a US Citizen.
I believe that your trust in inherently worthless fiat, regardless of the color or face that graces it, is sad.
Sad is the best descriptor that I can think of, and it's not for me to judge you, but I can cast judgment upon the notion (maybe a pun in there) that any fractional reserve based economic system, using inherently and ultimately worthless fiat currency (the production and volume of which is not restrained by anything but the hollow words of ignorant or, worse yet, malicious men, beholden to special interests), is the very definition of ignorance and naivety.
There have been many pivotal, watershed moments in U.S. history where Americans were sold down the river by their "elected" leaders and unelected men working out of public view.
Four such events that stand out prominently in my mind were in 1910, on Jekyll Island, where the blueprint for The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was essentially crafted, FDR taking the U.S. off the gold standard (de facto, significantly) in the 1930s, Nixon taking the U.S. off the gold standard (if even de jure rather than de facto, as that had already happened) in 1971, and the Plaza Accord in 1985.
Not coincidentally, all four events directly had to do with increasing the amount of money (fiat currency), by destroying any then-existing constraints, that could be churned out.
well, you see, we agree on more then what you think
"fractional reserve" is another tool - you had in the US a gold-backed-and-convertible Dollar with fractional reserve
if I had to choose, I would ask for a fiat system with extremely high checks on the "fractional reserve" banking method
and more, I see the banking licence (that allowes fractional banking) in the same way as the licence to build a nuclear plant: You May, but You May NOT PLAY WITH IT - i.e. you have to behave like a responsible person with it
In my view, WE THE PEOPLE allowed the banks to play WITH OUR Sovereign FIRE (fiat and fractional banking)
In my view, banking is a facility - if you want to bank, forgo high salaries or bonuses - and no bloody trading, etc. etc. - go back to 1963
and no, I do not "trust" fiat, the same way I do not "trust" governments
but if you do business in a country like Argentina or Brazil, you learn that currency is best when you just know where it is going - it's a medium, really, nothing mystical
Well Ghordius, If you read "the monster of Jekyll island" you might have know that the shareholders of the FED are the US banks, as they have created the FED and own the FED from the start and in Erupe it is a governmental body. So it is a logical course of the FED.
no, I have to read it, but yes, I know some about the FED
eventually logical, yes, Voltaire pointed this out too
my point is that there are (as you are hinting) other ways to have a CB
some are much better (like IMO the ECB)
some are insanely better (like the SNB)
Every central "bank" that's ever existed in history has ultimately rigged the entire economic system, via the printing of toilet paper backed by nothing of inherent value, so as to turn citizens in debt serfs and the economy into a perpetually larger debt craving monstrosity, without exception.
Hell, even the Romans diluted the actual content of precious metals in their coins, and then began using scrap metal, as a literally trashing of their currency, because they needed to produce more coins, and ran short of PMs.
The Chinese, as someone said earlier, got around this problem years before the Roman Empire even existed by being the first known major civilization to use paper fiat.
This notion that some central banks are better or worse than others is pointless, because they all inevitably induce the failure of the economy by creating far too much debt, and by defaulting to a position of using that same debt as a necessary means of attempting to grow the economy, precisely because they use a fractional reserve banking methodology, otherwise known as Modern Money Mechanics, which is the literal title of the rule book that the Federal Reserve plays by.
It's not like they keep it a secret that they employ fractional reserve banking. It's just that they've always expected no more than 1 in 100,000 people (if that) to understand how utterly doomed to economic, financial and social failure employing such a methodology ultimately, inevitably leads to, whether within 10 years or 100 (we're coming up on 100 years in the USofA pretty soon).
TruthInSunshine, yes, yes, yes, and yes, you are right.
But please note that you are exchanging one set of propaganda (MSM) with one other set of propaganda. Both are inaccurate and incomplete.
1. There is no way any Country can have a gold standard while the Global Reserve Currency is FIAT
2. The USD, EUR, GBP and others are not really pure fiat - they are hybrids. (see the gold in their reserves)
3. Fiat Currency and Fractional Reserve Banking are two separate tools, you can have one or two or both. MMM is a description of both in play. You do have to make the distinction since they are separate "evils" that need a different handling.
4. You might be right that someday we will all realize that both fiat and fract.banking have to go the way of the dinosaurs, but try to tell this to the living, breathing Tyrex that is looking you in the eye. You don't throw FRN out of the window, you know they have some value today, eh?
5. Meanwhile, the USD FRN is off gold conversion since the Thirthies and last time I hedged against a catastrophic collapse of the USD it was in the freaking early Eighties. My hedge is still here, so leave me the perspective I have, based on my experience, that they could pull it off again.
6. No US libertarian has yet explained what would exactly happen when the US would go back to a gold standard - because some aspects would scare quite a lot of US Citizens. If you want, I could give you some thoughts on it...
7. NOTHING you have written goes further then the US-Centric "FED is Evil - period" Counter-Propaganda-Template. Without any non-US informations you assume that therefore all other CBs are simply the same as the FED - this is a bit ignorant. Have a look how the 1904 Swiss National Bank has been set up and study who the real owner of it is and you will realize some of the real evils of the FED setup. Or just realize that the ECB is a CB of CBs, which are national and have a completely different charter from the FED. You don't need to oppose the FED because it's a Central Bank, there are plenty of other reasons!
"Go to the Spartans and tell, that according to law, no gold or silver is in the land..."
"Sooner or later".
It is about time for German people to rise and become free from the world Zionist oligarchy.
Once again, Germany will use National Socialism. However, in the past, ideology took over a common sense with not too good ending. Hopefully, German people have learned their mistakes.
By the way, National Socialism is doing quite well in China.
You know nothing about Germany and the Germans. They are a way more decent people then you think. I do agree that the German people need to be free, like all people on this planet.
Leider ist das Problem nicht der Euro, sondern die Korrupte Banker... Es geht hier um Macht und Geld... ob Euro, DM, oder was denn auch... Wir werden alle gefickt...
Haben Sie nur ein Uebersetzungsprogram benutzt? Es gibt zu viele grammatische Fehler
Long Bundeswehr futures
I'd say they deserve it.
why is that exactly?
The German people have had plenty of chances to do something about this. Before all you Euro weenies get your panties in a wad, Americans deserve what's coming too.
Weber is happily out of the ECB. Now he has all the time in the world to gangbang prostitutes with his Frankfurt banking buddies and see Europe go down in flames. I am sure they're all having a blast.
Near the Hauptbahnhoff?
Well, sure. There's always action around any hauptbahnhof.
I used to be rooting that the euro would fail so the banksters wouldn't be able to chalk up another "W".
Now I want the Euro to fail because of the complete lack of democratic checks and balances -- any government to be that thinks that people voting is bad can take their proposals and stuff in their arse.
ArkansasAngie, the Germans have found out in their history that any "political currency" is destined to fail
hence the "BundesBank Principle", on which theoretically the Euro is based - we'll see if this holds or not
Ach du lieber! If Germany goes tits-up what's left for the Fat Lady to sing about?
but that has been the plan all along... economic devestation followed by greater centralization of power and economic control. Time to fight German people... you were brutalized in WWII, and are now subjugated under the international banking system... but its not too late to stand up and fight.
Time to fight German people... you were brutalized in WWII
Hoo, boy, dis guy is craazzzy! Time to drag out old and disused history books and read! German peoples they went medieval on rest of Europe 1939 thru 1945, I tell you. Was not pretty. If any such impulse still burns somewhere in that fatherland please extinguish it. Let Greeks go, let Italians go. Keep panzerwagons in own country please.
>>
"What happens when an already mortally wounded in the polls Angela Merkel finds herself in the next general election and experiences an epic electoral loss? We will find out very, very shortly."
>>
Tyler, the opposition parties are MORE willing to pour German money into the EU than Merkel. She is the endpoint of German national (vs EU) commitment on their political spectrum of relevant players.
Her being mortally wounded electorally is a great deal different than Papandreou being so. His opposition are conservatives. He's a socialist.
All bells & whistles full on for Peer Steinbrück, SPD ....
He kinda Hank Paulson... and SPD pretty much dems alike. No hope.
Merkel Schmerkel, Sarkozy Schmozy. It's time for little ol' Alice in Wonderland to turn around and say to the world bankster cabal, "Why, why you're just a pack of cards!" And the sooner the better.
there will be pain either way. If they leave there's pain and if they stay and it collapses there's even more pain... Their only chance for minimal pain is letting Greece go, taking over Italy's finances/govt and getting the full support of the rest of the world.
It won't matter. Inflate it away.
Own hard assets and use your groupons to offset what inflation you can.
I'm Broke, Ein Yikes, Nein Future
After the oil runs out Germany will be back on top.
They are home to the finest Kutschenmanufaktur in the world bar none:
http://www.kuehnle.de/
"We wonder how long until someone bypasses that despotic regime in Greece and actually proposes a referendum in Germany, asking the people if they are truly willing to subsidize their corporations in exchange for drowning in debt for millennia? America has already done this and, trust us, it is not pleasant."
Did I miss something? Was there an outbreak of democracy in the US that I missed? What exactly is that last sentence supposed to mean, Tyler?
"willing to subsidize their corporations in exchange for drowning in debt for millennia"
It's far worse than that.
Germany will be subsidizing PIIGS+France (and possibly the UK) for a long time, while seeing their purchasing power plunge, their savers absolutely devastated, and having their children/grandchildren sold into debt servitude.
I really don't think, based on the raw math of the situation the EU Debtapocalypse involves, that I'm in any way exaggerating.
The ECB and EU at large will do to Germany what The Bernank has done to Main Street America but many magnitudes higher.
And let's all admit it; If Germany and the select few other solvent EU Members agree to rescue PIIGS+France+UK, then that creates disincentive to fix the underlying disease that has caused the EU Disease.
Germany is being prepped to prepare to bend over in order to pay buku resources to temporarily soothe over some of the worst current aspects of the EU Crisis, and while this will bankrupt Germany, it will in no way, shape or form lead to any real solution that addresses the underlying disease.
Most...expensive....painkillers...ever (with the shortest half life).
Why are they called PIIGS? Because you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear and every damn European knows that. Being in denial gets you nowhere fast.
I for one was not willing --what was my option please--
"What happens when..."
If Angela Merkel loses the general elections, i.e. the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition loses, there is still a possibility of a coalition of CDU/CSU/Green Party or, of course, some Social Democratic Party led coalition. My bet would be of a "Grand Coalition" of CDU/CSU/SPD.
In any case there is no serious party in Germany that is against the EZ, just some Social Democrats that prefer to keep solidarity more closely at home.
Don't need to worry about parties, it's the math that will get you. Just like the Soviet Union:)
I don't worry about Germany
a world war, a blockade of one year with starvation, hyperinflation, a totalitarian regime, another world war, a division between the victors, a reunification that took twenty years - last year in Berlin I could still spot bullet holes in some of the buildings where the Sovjet had to fight for every inch.
a bit of overindebtness and saving the EZ? let's say it's good to keep them occupied (they do like to fret about everything) - but don't think you can hold them down!
"No serious party in Germany that is against the EZ".
Well then the German People are doomed, if that is their mandate as expressed in their elected representatives. And the German People who know better than to back the EZ regardless of consequences should be stacking Physical Gold and Silver as deeply as they can reasonably afford.
Who cares. As you said, Goldman has their man in place. No need to even report Axel's comment. THe end of Europa is not now. They need to spend a few more bullets. Once those are gone
"a referendum in Germany"
This will never happen. In fact, if there had been a referendum before the EUR was introduced, Germany would have never joined this in the first place. Politicans here as elsewhere hate to ask the population directly (as could be seen with other hot topics - like the Afghanistan war (which is highly unpopular) or nuclear technology).
If that becomes reality (300 %) - then you can expect that Germany will be a complete different country. That'll be the end of the current political class and the peace within our society. Because as I said before - Germans have already sacrificed a lot with the liberalization of their labour market (and unlike other European countries, they did not protest about it). The mood is already not good (of course some people can ignore that).
yeah. but remember Stuttgart! "Wir wollen ein bisschen Schweiz!"
and all for a train station and a few trees
they are doing quite a lot of pressure on having referendums in general, blame the evil Swiss Influence
-------------
I'm still amazed by the fact that there is practically no minimum wage anymore in Germany
Germans just don't like to acknowledge the reality that their tax-refugees are flooding Switzerland. They have no concept of what "labor market liberalization" means.
Recently there was an initiative in the Zürich-Oberland to force primary schools to teach classes in Schwiizer-deutsch. Why? Because in many villages German immigrant children form the majority of students. These German children will never learn Swiss German if they aren't taught it in school. For centuries the Swiss have been forcing their children to learn high german in the schools so that they could compete with the German intellectual snobs and now the tables have turned. Now the Swiss must teach the Germans to speak Swiss German.
These germans are hard workers, they can do it. They can tripple their GDP in one year by invading their neighbors.
The Germans are in a ship fill of holes and trying to bail it out. In the mean time Sarkozy is the sitting back directing the Germans how to bail.
When will the Germans finally say enough is enough and take to the streets???
Won't happen soon.
Germany has twice the number of policemen per capita than the netherlands. Why is that ? Because most Germans make their living on crime ?
They are already taking to the streets. See:
http://eurodemostuttgart.wordpress.com/
When the German people vote down debt enslavement, do you think that the German pols will import neo-fascism from America?
TSA
VIPR
Warrantless searches
FEMA Camps
In Western 'democracies' you are only allowed to vote for war, deficit spending, centralization, fraud, nepotism, bureaucratization and debt slavery.
All those tools already deployed. ( TSA as a pilot project in Hamburg ). FEMA camps - no prob, abandoned military sites ready for the purpose.
I know Germany is the Strength in the EU, but a check of the Data that the MSMedia wouldn't dare to mention is that as of 12/31/10, the beginning of this year, Germany itself had a misserable Debt to GDP of 83%....no doubt much, much worse now with all the weight put on its shoulders
Yes. Also unfavorable demographics.
trust us, it fuking sucks!
Somebody is going to wake up and find an ugly Schnaubel on their Merkels soon and there won't be a soothing ointment to treat it.
After this morning's scary decline in German factory orders, adding to the downtrend, there should be concern. German workers are not exactly on an austerity diet: very generous time off and benefits (about 3-4X US workers)
what is the time frame when the other euro countries do the math and realize that like holding a bad stock, the first sellers will be ok and the bag holders will be screwed.
When Nazi Germany is going down the toilet.. then we all go down the toilet.
YEA! No wait, that's bad. Ah fuck-it. Heil Merkel!
And beyond the headlines the Greek economy continues its Southward march - they will not meet the budget projections set by troika for 2011. Period. http://ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_03/11/2011_413185
Greek default is certain, the question is will it be in 2011 or 2012, that is if you are not considering 50% haircut as a default. My feeling is that all this stage drama by G-Pap and taboo talk by Merkozy is a prelude to Greece being kicked out soon. How that bodes for Euro is not clear.
Weber is an optimist. Did he also included the debt of the future IMF expansion and ECB deficits for the Germaqn part in it?
Greece to sell assets and national treasures to meet debt obligations ? Greece gives Germany the "Golden Fleece" ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad 314% Gross Joke Product (GJP)
And, alas, what is true on a large scale is also true on the smaller scale of individual producing and self employed citizens of the US and the leeches of State govt workers who get all the benifits and job security and even bigger leeches of federal workers and politicians. Sooner or later the goose that lays the golden egg of new jobs and new products will be bled to death and this US Pig will collapse. We are witnessing the beginning stages now.
I'm ok with this. Satan...how about you?
"All In..."
Nothing much happened the last time Germany had a currency collapse and depression. I don't see why we should worry about it this time.
Greece to issue free Goat Fuck debit cards to German tourists ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Oracle Debacle
So the G20 is deferring any decision until February....wow. I thought there would at least be some sort of money-printing pledge to goose the markets.
I love this bit:
The statement also said the IMF should work out a way to issue more special drawing rights, or SDRs, the fund's own reserve currency that can be exchanged for cash with central banks around the world. SDRs can just be created and do not require new commitments from IMF member states.
WTF???? Does this make any sense???????? (rhetorical question)
Ah the Germans, their vanity and their strictness. Especially their strictness for other peoples. Ironically, a large part of Germany looking better has to do with them being in a union with Southern Europe. But better is not good. Reality is: their total liabilities are huge as well, even without future bailouts of their own national banking system; it's just that their export machine provides them with a larger future taxable base and easy access to financing. Leaving the euro would mean a massive appreciation of the Neue Mark. When the bundesbank is confronted with this, they would need to swallow a massive dose of their own medicine in a very short time.
I don't know if anyone else remembers this one, but I remember Sylvia disappearing from CNBC for a few days after disparaging remarks she said about Weber, when he got passed over for as the head of the IMF.
I think she needed or was told to "dry out".
Could not find this at the online version of Sueddeutsche - can you post source/link, please?
Looked myself - no match
Mit unseren Fahne ist der Sieg!
Weber will soon find out what would happen to Germany without a weak "DM" when he joins the UBS board of directors. He is going to find out how the numerous Swiss small manufacturing businesses have recently closed shop, how tourism is on IV, how Switzerland has been flooded with economic asylum seekers from countries like Germany.
The Swiss export industry is being devastated by the fiat-trash Euro land, especially Germany. At least if Germany (and perhaps Austria and the nordics as well) leave the EU it will lift a lot of the pressure off of Switzerland and the franc.
Wow! How can the germans do this to their children?
Tyler, would you provide a link to the piece in Sueddeutsche Zeitung? Thanks!
Try this
http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/wir-muessen-den-markt-...
Thx
The last time Europe tried to saddle Germany with crippling institutionalized transfers that incapaciated their production it didn't work out too well. Looks like it takes about 93 years for people to forget what stupid idea looks like.
Can we have a link to the article ? Thanks