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Former PBoC Monetary Policy Committee Member: "Beijing Will Not Ride To Eurozone’s Rescue"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just in case there was any doubt how China feels, here is Yu Yongding, former member of the PBoC's monetary committee, with an FT Op-Ed.

Beijing will not ride to eurozone’s rescue

Europe’s courtship of Beijing is moving to a more intense level. Klaus Regling, the chief of the eurozone bail-out fund, is in Beijing discussing possible support. Just a few days ago French President Nicolas Sarkozy conferred with Hu Jintao, his Chinese counterpart, to win Beijing’s support. They should not hold out their hopes too high.

The two will have had a courteous hearing: China is willing and able to help. Since the beginning of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, Beijing has repeatedly expressed its wish to offer “a helping hand” to Europe. Eurozone countries, however, have to understand that they will have to save themselves. Expectations of a “red knight” riding to the rescue are sorely misplaced.

To be clear, a strong Europe is always welcomed by Beijing for geopolitical reasons. As China’s most important trade partner, a financially sound and prosperous Europe is firmly in China’s interests. Sitting as it is on $3,200bn in foreign exchange reserves, China can help, but while it is willing to do so this will not be without conditions.

As Wen Jiabao, premier, pointed out at the 2011 Dalian World Economic Forum, the European Union has first to put its house in order. When countries and political parties in the eurozone squabble among themselves over how to proceed, how can China support any hastily assembled rescue packages?

China’s faith in the US dollar has been proved misplaced and it cannot afford to make the same mistake again. The recent agreement on expanding the scale of the bail-out fund is perceived as positive, but the idea of “leveraging” the European financial stability facility by partial guarantees is not reassuring. That is a far cry from the original design of EFSF bonds.

From the perspective of domestic politics, bailing out EU countries with Chinese money is hard for the Chinese people to accept. The tens of millions of elderly Chinese will demand to know why they should pay for rich Europeans to retire early when they do not have a decent pension system of their own. Unlike America, which has accumulated huge foreign debts, the eurozone as a whole has a healthy external position. This means that eurozone countries can solve their sovereign debt crisis with their own money, as long as Germany and some northern European countries are prepared to foot the bill. The Chinese people will ask: if Germans do not want to contribute more money, why should China bother?

That said, it does not mean China should stay on the sidelines. China would be happy to invest in EFSF bonds in a measured way, as it has already done. If a eurobond should emerge, China should also invest. For any major investment in European sovereign bonds, safety is the key, which means that an ironclad guarantee and the involvement of the International Monetary Fund are necessary. Besides, there are many ways to help without exposing China to sovereign debt. Its sovereign wealth funds can buy shares in solid European non-financial and financial companies. Chinese enterprises can inject billions of euros of fixed direct investment into the eurozone economy.

Furthermore, there are indirect ways to help. Beijing should allow the renminbi to appreciate against the euro and give European companies greater access to Chinese markets – which, of course, needs to be reciprocated. An improved eurozone current account through trade as well as Chinese investment into Europe will free up funding within Europe and allow more savings to be directed towards governments.

Though China should continue its bilateral co-operation with individual European countries, Beijing should negotiate financial rescue packages with the eurozone collective, not individual states. Otherwise it may sow discord within Europe as the attitudes of individual countries towards Chinese actions are bound to differ.

To be clear, China should not give the impression it is taking advantage of the misfortune of others. But, for Beijing, financial decisions should be based on financial considerations. Do not blame it if China’s help is short of your expectations. China has never claimed it can save you from the debt dragon – and, on its own, it will not.

The writer is a former member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee

 

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Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:24 | 1832089 marcusfenix
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you're on your own, bitchez!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1832091 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

And Corzine should go to jail.  Corrupt GS bastard.

 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:55 | 1832201 hedgeless_horseman
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China’s faith in the US dollar has been proved misplaced and it cannot afford to make the same mistake again.

In 5 years, some may come to believe that Bernanke and Geithner are American war heros.  This Euro crap is mostly about creating U.S. Treasury bids.  The business cycle has been replaced with the EUR/USD in-and-out.  Just wait for the reversal when the U.S. hits its new debt target.

The USD and EUR are lateralling the ball back and forth as they destroy the rest of the field in The Race To The Bottom.  Just look at Japan trying to remain an export economy with an appreciating Yen.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:57 | 1832272 GeneMarchbanks
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SO... buy the SGD?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:07 | 1832309 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

If you believe you are ahead of a bunch of chi.coms getting ready to sell the EUR and the USD, then sure.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 12:19 | 1832732 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Wait.

China is going to bail out the Eurozone.

Remember?

If Greece is a mere prelude to the PIIGS+France+UK kiss (and it is), and a small prelude at that (and it is), wait until they get a load of PIISFUK (or, the remainder of the known unknowns).

 

*China could theoretically spend every dime of its alleged 1.7 to 2.3 trillion USD surplus on a Eurozone "rescue" and that money would kick the Eurodebtapocalypse crisis down the street for a year or so, given the fundamentally broken underlying funding mechanisms and budget crises of EU Member States and the feeble health of the underlying economies therein (especially Italy, Spain & France, with France having the most underspoken of, massive banking crisis brewing). An attempted rescue by Germany would essentially bankrupt several generations of Germans and simply breed utter hatred and contempt amongst and between existing EU Member States, ensuring the implosion of the union that should never have been.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 12:25 | 1832760 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

of course, easy

sell two thousand billions Treasuries, exchange them for EUR and buy the same amount in EU debt

nothing the markets can't handle 8-)

IMO all this China EU Saving talk is counterpropaganda - made for trader's rumors

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:07 | 1832328 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"China happy to take more US Debt"...

"Not that there's anything wrong with that."

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:31 | 1832452 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

In promising Wednesday night to double the United States’ export growth over the next five years, President Obama set an ambitious goal for American trade policy that, he said, could create two million jobs.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/29/business/29trade.html

An easy promise to fulfill when export growth was very small, nevertheless, he can't do it organically, but only through the magic of the printing press.  This was clearly the raison d'etre of Obama's statement, it is cover for debasing the USD...he says it could create jobs...but we know it definitely does raise the inflation tax.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:42 | 1832526 HCSKnight
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Beijing will at some point give up on saving the EU because she will need to save her economic ammunition for the economic battle with the US.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:29 | 1832121 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Noe Chin Hero, has spoken. Geez, who can understand this clusterfuck to do anything but watch and laugh your ass off.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1832094 maxmad
maxmad's picture

collapse, bitchez!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:41 | 1832193 common_sense
common_sense's picture

Not yet, damn it !!!

We need something worst from USA....and everything meltdown....

 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1832096 vegas
vegas's picture

Yu Yongding? Are fucking kidding me? I bet this guy spent most of his childhood getting his ass kicked.

Well suited training for Commie Government work now though.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:41 | 1832199 SheepDog-One
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Actually in China 'Yu Yongding' means 'Chuck Norris'.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:13 | 1832365 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Getting ass kicked throughout childhood make you tough.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1832100 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Now there is a rumor out that China will begin to print Deutch Marks...

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:26 | 1832101 JohnG
JohnG's picture

must.get.more.popcorn.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1832103 snowball777
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Quick, what's Mandarin for "not with a dog's dick"?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:32 | 1832139 vegas
vegas's picture

You Dingdong. Oh wait, it Yu Dongding. Oh shit, I mean You Yongding. Oh WTF it's YU

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:27 | 1832110 homersimpson
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Believe me, the Chinese are pretty thrifty with their money (read: uber-cheap). Can you imagine the look on their faces when they realize their money is forcefully being given out to some lazy-ass Whiteys in Greece and Italy?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:53 | 1832261 Ruffcut
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Whiteys are referred to as "round eyes".

I like to call them slant snatch.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:15 | 1832376 WonderDawg
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Being called "round eye" doesn't bother me. I wonder if being called "slant eye" bothers them?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:28 | 1832116 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

do they no longer follow their famous philosopher Pon-Zing?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:28 | 1832117 oceanview76
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We topped out at about 1:45pm yesterday and then faded to meet up with the European close on a percentage basis.  Wash, rinse and repeat today?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:29 | 1832129 Sudden Debt
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I think we should throw some nukes on china. Just to show we don't like what they say.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:35 | 1832163 spartan117
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You have nukes in Belgium?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:39 | 1832185 Ghordius
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nukes, in Belgium, are those super-heavy-chocolates that can obliterate a city

I thought they were banned, though

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:58 | 1832276 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

52 actually, all american :)
Placed there to use if russia where to invade europe during the cold war.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:08 | 1832332 DogSlime
DogSlime's picture

Just so long as you don't mind them throwing a few back :)

We'll probably all be eating our relatives anyway, once everything collapses - might as well have them cooked.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:31 | 1832137 JenkinsLane
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I envy the Chinese their nationalistic elite. Doubt if anyone on this site is old enough to remember a Western one, I've sure as hell never seen one.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:32 | 1832143 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What do you know?  BRICrolled again.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:45 | 1832221 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There's a silver lining in there somewhere.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1832151 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

More Red Baron than Red Knight now.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:37 | 1832176 Fake Jim Quinn
Fake Jim Quinn's picture

Who actually thinks the Chinese have the money anyway? Their banks are so over extended it makes BoA look like a rock. China's refusal to help is not done from strength; it is a tacit admission they don't have the money either

We're on the verge of a massive credit deflation deleveraging bomb in Europe. in China, in the USA. How the pols react -- massive printing, panic -- who the h*ll knows. It won't turn out well. Get PMs! And by that I mean lead wrapped in a full metal jacket

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:38 | 1832179 common_sense
common_sense's picture

So China is not the NEW MESIAS ???? ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...damn it!!!!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:38 | 1832180 vegas
vegas's picture

Attention Yu: Forget Italy for a second; here's news you can really use.

Kenya's C.bank raised its benchmark lending rate by 550 bps to 16.50 pct, surprising markets by beating expectations of 12 pct .

What could possibly go wrong?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:44 | 1832212 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Europes limo ran out of gas, and thought they could call the Chinese to come fillerup for free...sorry Euroleaders looks like you have to get out and push.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:46 | 1832229 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

If someone says Yu Yong Ding to you, you reply Bang Da Hoe!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:49 | 1832240 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Long the Yuan!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:50 | 1832248 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Hope they ride to OUR rescue.

 

Light Dawns on MBS Investors – Streamlined Refis Will Be Lower Than Hoped – ISM Price Index Nosedives

 

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/

Look at the ISM price index. Deflation anyone?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:53 | 1832262 Scisco
Scisco's picture

Beijing should allow the renminbi to appreciate against the euro

So appreciation against the Euro is okay but not the Dollar. Gotcha. Hate to think what would happen if it wasn't allowed. Beijing would then have to peg the EUR to the USD. Am I just confused?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:57 | 1832273 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

couldn't they just buy all the banks and force austerity?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 11:29 | 1832457 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Soooooooo what you're saying is China will bailout Europe?

That's what the nice men on CNBC are saying.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 12:07 | 1832671 laomei
laomei's picture

China wants you to get on your knees and beg for that cock in your mouth... go on, beg for it, then make me a sammich when I tell you you're done.

 

China will ALWAYS do what's best for China, and especially going forward, don't expect any handouts, a toll will be extracted for any significant assistance.  Deal with it.

 

 

 

... now swallow that load and smile

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 13:09 | 1832915 zebra
zebra's picture

Who needs china if Martians are coming to bail us out

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