The Four Scariest Charts For Hope-Filled 'De-Cuppers'

Tyler Durden's picture


In a follow-up to last week's deep dive on the end of the US CapEx boom (and the possibility that the Fed is out of bullets) and the growing hope once again that the US can remain the 'decoupled' least syphilitic-hooker-in-a-whorehouse, we thought it useful (given this week's somewhat disappointing reversion to reality in macro data and markets) to highlight four clear un-decoupling indications. From Economic Surprise Index similarities between Europe and the US, to record negative pre-announcements and fading US CapEx growth rates, the reversion in US manufacturing and new orders data to Europe's (and Asia's) sad reality is not going to be 'saved' by the supposed housing recovery - as we noted here earlier. With credit and FX markets already signaling a hope-less market, we wonder how long before stocks catch-down (and the 'De-Cuppers' smell the napalm).


1. The US Economic Surprise Index and the European Economic Surprise Index have recoupled perfectly and are tracking lower together...


2. Negative Earnings Pre-Announcements Are at Multi-Period Highs... (and S&P 500 EPS consensus down 3% from the start of the year)


3. Large high-quality US non-financial firms are 'unconfidently' slowing their CapEx spending as growth rates are rolling over notably...


4. And after a 'warmth'-inspired Spring, US manufacturing is reverting rapidly to Europe's sad reality with New Export orders plunging...


But, as Monty Python might say, apart from all of this - what has the 'bull' market got ahead of it for you.

Source: Bloomberg, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs

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Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:01 | 2592671 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Yes!  I like those D Cups and larger!

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:11 | 2592714 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

I love the sight of D-cups in the morning...

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:32 | 2592776 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Hunger Strike

by:  The Best Friends Forever of Fractional Reserve Central Banks


We don't mind
Stealing Bread
From the mouths of taxpaying malcontents...

But we can't feed on those malcontents
Unless our cups are filled by Bernank's sacrament

But it's on the table,
The globally coordinated QE/TARP/TALF/ZIRP-NIRP's cooking

Our politician 'friends' are farming babies,
and the slaves are all working...

Blood is on the table,
the mouths are chokin'...

So that we won't go hungry...

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:40 | 2592795 Kitler
Kitler's picture

Once again the angry mobs at Zero Hedge are completely missing the true nature of the wonderful "Works of God" that Messieurs like Bernanke, Dimon, and Blankfien have selflessly embarked upon.

Mark 10: 25

25 It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.

Sure... Ben, Jamie, Lloyd and others will almost certainly die wealthy beyond all imaginable belief... but they do so only to help their Christian bretheren impoverish themselves into a better afterlife in Heaven.

And let's be fair... they've done wonders for the other American dream of home affordability haven't they?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:15 | 2592926 flacon
flacon's picture

Don't forget that they will throw their worthless silver and gold (SLV, GLD) into the streets, meanwhile the GOD ORDAINED MONEY (Silver and Gold) will be saved. 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:56 | 2593114 0z
0z's picture

Go back to your books.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:31 | 2592781 Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby's picture

Aside from that, how did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln???

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:05 | 2592680 Killtruck
Killtruck's picture

Well, I don't care what you think...I say it's bullish.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:10 | 2592704 risk-reward
risk-reward's picture

Hope there is a "sarc" there....

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:07 | 2592697 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

My beef, poultry and vegetable production has gone up 1000% this year, though I do not have it graphed.  It was a steep learning curve after coming from an hourly-waged government job, but what else can you invest in nowadays?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:09 | 2592701 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Was the "sourcing" of Bloomberg, Citi, Margin Stanley, & GS for the charts, or the Monty Python quote?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:12 | 2592716 moroots
moroots's picture


Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:02 | 2592869 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture



This "market" not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This "market" is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile!! THIS IS AN EX-MARKET!! IT'S BEEN BERNANKE'D!!!!!!!

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:10 | 2592705 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

You and your charts of thuthiness. 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:10 | 2592707 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

god help us if we get 4 more years of bam bam..

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:14 | 2592720 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Don't you get exhausted from such partisan thinking?  What is your salvation, Mittens?  One person is not going to fix this mess anymore than one person caused it. 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:51 | 2592834 semperfi
semperfi's picture

Romney = shot in the nuts
Obama = shot in the face

chose your poison

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:35 | 2593020 old naughty
old naughty's picture

so rom-bama is nut-face?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:11 | 2592713 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

SPY still making new highs priced in foreign currencies:,spy:FXY,spy:...|D

GLD is way underperforming in most all currencies except the Swiss Franc,GLD:FXY,GLD:...|D

Foreign investors are still enamoured with U.S. big cap stocks, they are not so enthusiastic about gold.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:57 | 2592856 Likstane
Likstane's picture

How could anybody junk that?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:49 | 2592828 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture


Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:06 | 2592890 akak
akak's picture

Give it up already, Tyler(s) --- nobody is buying this inane pseudo-troll schtick of your sockpuppet "RobotTrader" any more.

If you want to solicit a greater number of comments from readers here, try doing it with intelligent provocation rather than with puerile antagonism.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:12 | 2592914 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I kinda like the puerile antagonism...


Fri, 07/06/2012 - 17:34 | 2593357 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

So spaketh Akak The Oxymoronic: Master of all that is Baiter.

Sat, 07/07/2012 - 09:02 | 2594521 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

SPY isn't doled out in foreign currencies - your metric is nonsense.

Price SPY in US dollars or using commodities which are universal like oil barrels or cubic feet of natural gas (or cubic meters) or gold ounces but not foreign currencies. I don't price the British market in US dollars because you CAN'T price it that way.

SPY ETF is smashing down & will smash down more very soon. Best thing to do is load up on at-the-money or 2 $ above Calls for VXX with > 45 days (fairly good) and greater than 70 days (very smart). VXX will rise fast and SPY will smash into the dirt.

You should be expecting SPY down around 110 to 120 very soon.

It's also very likely time for GLD calls to be used. Watch a week. - this is how gold's moved and the ratio is 10.3$ move on gold spot = $1 move on GLD shares.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:14 | 2592721 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Can ES catch a bid on some 3:30pm EuroRumor, or are those days long gone?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:16 | 2592730 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Thanks for this post, which I think is very good and timely. I think the chances of facing a crisis is growing every week. Europe is doing a bad job and probably will suffer the greatest consequences. But the effects on the U.S. economy may also be very serious. In my opinion, the most sensible thing is to prepare to address this and try to benefit as the market will have great movement.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:19 | 2592739 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

I must admit, had someone asked me to use the word 'syphilitic' in a sentence I would have been in trouble. ZH is the best!

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:42 | 2592802 janus
janus's picture

pssstshaw!!! dat's nuthin.

in fact, janus once contracted gono-syphi-hepat-AIDS from a hooker on the out-skirts of rhoda, spain.  and that's a hell of a lot better than using it in a sentence.

i know what you're thinking; and, no, i only passed it along to a limited few.  it was all cleared up rather accidentially...sort of one of those serrendipitious scientific breakthroughs.  you see, at the time i was investigating various cures for boredom; and i just so happened to be experimenting with bourbon.

wouldn't you know it, the only known cure for that pernicious and pestiferous plague of the prostitute is none other than wiskey...gallons and gallons of wiskey.

i know, i know...but it's all in a day's work for your's truly.  some started taking to callin me jonas saulk and such -- but you can call me janus.

you have no faith in medicine,


Sat, 07/07/2012 - 04:56 | 2594366 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

You ever see Hap' Shaugnessy on "The Red Green Show"?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:27 | 2592762 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

Bring out your dead!

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:27 | 2592763 janus
janus's picture

janus saw a scary-lookin chart last night...

looked like a bowel-loosening -- terror-infusing -- nervous breakdown-inducing double-top for APPL.  now, janus is no expert tech analyist...but this looks like a textbook double-top to me.  check it out if you doubt.

anyway, it had huge, sharp, nasty, pointy teeth!


i soiled my armor i was so scared,

janus (i warned's always the same)

5...3, sir...right, 3.

bring out the holy handgrenade...

consult the Book of Armaments...

and that with it thy may blow thy enemy to tiny bits, in thy mercy/

and The Lord did grin/

and the people did feast upon ...(lots of fleshy bits)/

...3 shall be the number thou shall count/

...who being naughty in my sight shall snuff it/

1...2...5...3, sir...3.



Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:30 | 2592772 Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture

Are we pustulating yet?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:36 | 2592793 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Ahhhhh.  Made it to Friday.  Fooled the Mofos AGAIN!  48 hours of good wine, excellent tobacco, and all the orgasms the wife will dish out.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:47 | 2592814 janus
janus's picture

i like your style, dude...

and, cheers to all our 'special-lady-friends':

that's right! (but, only problem is, they drink and throw like girls),


Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:36 | 2592794 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Hope has changed.  These charts sum it up pretty well.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:38 | 2592796 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Off topic but looking for info. Where can I find the total lending by Fed Financing Bank to Ford?

Sat, 07/07/2012 - 08:58 | 2594516 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I think we call that "audit the fed"

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:43 | 2592800 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

New highs today for the high yield muni-bond ETF:

The lower interest rates go, the higher the "Animal Spirits" to fuel future rallies.

8 consecutive months when the average 10-yr. Treasury Yield has been under 2%

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:06 | 2592818 ATG
ATG's picture

Right on schedule RT;

Lower interest rates can also mean less economic activity with more debt default deflation and lower equity prices:

MUB is targeting +39%: 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:48 | 2592823 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture


Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:48 | 2592827 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Robo: I love you, but we are down almost 5% from the April high. The retail ETF's sound like hot/stupid money. Should the market fall another 5%, would those ETF's fall like a stone?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:06 | 2592830 akak
akak's picture

Give it up already, Tyler(s) --- nobody is buying this inane pseudo-troll schtick of your sockpuppet "RobotTrader" any more.

If you want to solicit a greater number of comments from readers here, try doing it with intelligent provocation rather than with puerile antagonism.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 17:51 | 2593398 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

So sayeth Akak The Oxymoronic: Master of Baiters

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:03 | 2592886 riley martini
riley martini's picture

Nothing says animal sprits like buying insured muni bonds at record low yield . Good one.

Sat, 07/07/2012 - 08:57 | 2594514 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

broken market

DO NOT TOUCH. The entire bid-rigging scandal will send MUNI bonds into the garbage heap

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:48 | 2592822 johny2
johny2's picture

all is for the best in this best of all the possible worlds.....

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:50 | 2592833 J 457
J 457's picture

OK, but global coordinated % rate cut and NIRP in EU will leave money without a home- where will it go?  My guess, US equities, commodities, PM, and real estate.

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