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French CDS Hit Escape Velocity

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Remember how prohibiting the use of naked sovereign CDS was supposed to make the CDS market tame as a docile lamb? Well, as it turns out, the bulk of the marginal moves were not CDS driven, but simply basis traders putting on, and taking off hedges. Ignoring the fact that many desks have experienced "Boaz Weinstein" like events in the past month (perhaps even Mr. Basis "$4.7 billion AUM" Trade himself), it seems that CDS is now simply tracking moves in cash. And those moves, if you are France, are not pretty. As the chart below shows, French CDS have just hit 88 MPH and are about to go back to a calmer, more peacful time, when everyone could buy and sell stuff using the French Franc...

 

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Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:29 | 1878723 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Good. Escape is good.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:27 | 1878729 pendragon
pendragon's picture

nosebleed bitchez

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:28 | 1878734 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Free money, please!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:28 | 1878731 sabra1
sabra1's picture

Mmmmm! FRANCenstein loves his FRANC & beans!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:43 | 1878771 max2205
max2205's picture

And I thought CDS's were useless and everyone dumped them cause they were useless for Greece?.....

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:28 | 1878733 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

what does this mean big picture? French yields blow out?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:38 | 1878752 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

it means all bailouts are doa, officially.  game over.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:39 | 1878754 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The end of the Euro and soon all fiat paper.  Get physical assets of all kinds while the paper is still accepted.  It also means the begining of capital controls, bank runs, rationing, and booming black markets.  I wonder of there is an ETF for the latter?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:28 | 1878960 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

The bigger picture is that there is no bigger picture because governments will not save the day. Everyone is on their own now.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:30 | 1878737 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Meanwhile in the land of Unicorns and Skittles, ES is surging, based on the hopium spewed by the CNBC morning crew.  If there is no volume today, we will simply melt up and fill the gap, as usual.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:31 | 1878739 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Forget about the bearish news. Today will be another Risk On day. When the European markets close, stocks will soar again. Even God will live long enough to see a re-run of 2008...

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:34 | 1878742 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

This is all going according to the globalist plan of bankrupting every nation in the world.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:36 | 1878747 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@PaperBear

When you control the money, you control the people.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:25 | 1878951 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

As long as the people dance to the "papers" tune.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:47 | 1878743 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Who else but ZH reports this stuff?  Thanks, TD.

 

P.S. Everyone, prepare for your ration cards.  Coming soon to a sovereign near you.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:35 | 1878746 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

It's borrowing AGAINST the CDS CONTRACTS that's the problem. These people better just start slappin the cement on their shoes right now and "dive in." Bashin' the brains of OWS is not the answer on this one--though it may provide "an outlet" as they say.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:42 | 1878766 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Mostly its OPM they are using so it doesnt matter if they lose it. You only have to make a killing once, so might as well swing for the fences.

For years they have been putting their own stashes of accumulated wealth in various trusts so that if they blow up it wont be them wearing the cement shoes. It will be taxpayers again.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:38 | 1878750 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

up up and away. buahahaha. good bye frenchies

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:38 | 1878751 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Sarko heard mumbling: "If only that damn Weidmann would relent."

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:40 | 1878756 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

The French will never surrender

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:44 | 1878772 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

They hate us for our freedom fries.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:44 | 1878773 jonan
jonan's picture

white flag...wave it...

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:56 | 1878816 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Indeed. A cursory glance over my history text book from years back seems to suggest that the only war France has ever won has been with themselves.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:52 | 1878785 Maxwell Smart
Maxwell Smart's picture

What's the use of CDS's if not even a default is considered a default event?

Anyone remember the Monty Python insurance sketch?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO2R_DDZPCM

Watch Michael Palin as CDS seller. :)

 

 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:53 | 1878808 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Classic.  At least the reverend got a nude lady, so there's that.  CDS paper is 100% imaginary.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:21 | 1878934 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

I think the flux capacitor is busted.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:31 | 1878975 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

The contrast between PM's and CDS (and other financial works of fiction) explains PM's popularity... there is some premium for truth. To hold something in one's hands that has actual, intrinsic value! How novel, how strange, how exciting!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 14:04 | 1879626 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Seriously, what kind of tool would be buying CDS's to hedge Euro-trash debt exposure?  As the outcome in Greece showed, the politicians and bureaucrats will do whatever it takes to make sure those CDS's never pay off, even if you lose half (or more) of your principal.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 14:52 | 1879796 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

NASDAQ megaphone pattern on daily chart indicates a big move lies ahead.

SP500 monthly chart remains bearish and USDX weekly remains bullish, so it’s only a matter of time until the market makes its move.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 18:33 | 1880602 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

Sarko to Greece: If you are part of a Group, you must follow the rules.

that was his explanation for cancelling democracy in Greece and sending in the technocrats.

 

I wonder what Sarko's gonna say when the Group (the bankers) come for his head.

Is he gonna call himself a putain and pull his own pants down in public?

 

The Group is not the Euro. It's the bankers. Sarko is not running the Group. He's just another

interchangeable employee. I'm enjoying every word of this.

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