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French Downgrade - Even More Likely Than Yesterday
Via Peter Tchir, of TF Market Advisors,
First Moody's and now Fitch are coming out with negative comments about the summit. That provides mores more air cover for S&P to downgrade France 1 notch.
Normally I don't care that much about ratings (they are a lagging indicator) except when they can create forced selling. I didn't think cutting the US ratings would impact US yields - and it didn't. It did affect the stock market though.
Will a downgrade of France cause forced selling? Probably not as it would likely be only one rating agency.
Will a downgrade of France cause pressure on their yields? I think it would because unlike the US the elements of solvency risk are starting to creep in. It is becoming clear that France has been pledging and guaranteeing their way into massive "off balance sheet" exposure. They CANNOT independently print their way out of the problem unlike us. They do not have most of their debt held by its own citizens - like Japan. There will be pressure on their bonds for all these reasons. France is already wide of Germany for these reasons but it will get wider after a rating agency highlights the problem.
But that isn't the main cause for concern. The entire EFSF program and the large un- capitalized portion of ESM are put in jeopardy. Those programs have relied on AAA rating for credibility. It will be the total loss of credibility of those plans that will spook the market. That 6 months have been spent relying on them to save the day without realizing the impact on France is what will cause the market to react very negatively.
The EU and EIB may also get notched in that case, further hurting the reputation of the EU and their plans.
Political pressure may stay the hand of S&P but if not, this should spark a steep decline in risk asset prices. It may even make it more difficult for the ECB to print as one of its strongest members stumbles.
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its a sure thing. only matter of time. All AAA countries are accountancy scams, fuck them all
same with corporations why don't the rating agncies focus on those? oh yeah, beggar thy neighbor policy is how the corporations do it
They should all be rated junk, anyone with common sense knows this by now.
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
FranCCCe
FFFrance.
That's more like it.
How any country these days gets anything better than FFF is a mystery to me! The only way they can pay these debts off is for central banks to print the money, which is default....right?
Final Jeopardy bitchez
Hairy French Female Armpits for $300, Alex.
juliette binoche http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk7k7-iGexU
Wonder what Ben has in store for tmr.
Too damn quiet.
If France gets downgraded, the markets will either not respond (already priced in) or rally (relief). So, no crisis, let alone meltdown, collapse, Armageddon. You know.
Priced in, that's a good one.
I'd tend to agree.( With Frederick zee great.)
Theres going to be a fantastic buying opp for PMs over the next 2 months
Awww look at the little sock puppet squirm. C'mon shill bot spew some more disinformation.
If there is a rally on S&P action, it will be because Germany does not get downgraded. I give it 70% no downgrade, 30% downgrade for Germany. S&P will almost certainly downgrade France and look like a decent citizen by staying their hand on Germany.
Merkel scares them more than sarkozy's :)
What about oil $250/barrel after Strait of Hormuz closure? Oh ok priced in...yea gotcha.
Ha, Oil at $250 ... How about Norway Butter at $500 a pound.
Just use margarine. You won't believe its not butter!
I´ll rent a cargo plane and make a billion ...what is wrong with them...import some...but I bet there are protections that will not allow you to do it.....
totally, you should be a professional trader. Long European Banks chief
I am looking at you with amazement.
France is getting downgraded. The question is which day in December.
25th
Setting up for QE3 announcement in March. Tomorrow's FOMC will dissapoint, as will Jan minutes.
March? This will go on till then? Wanna bet?
Commodity prices need to fall for the Fed to flood the system again. They could announce it tomorrow, but then there would be rioting in the streets shortly after people see gas hit $5/gal and a PBR costing $4
There will be no rioting in the streets until the next major Amerikkkan sports league stages its championship game.
Then, all bets are off!
So now we are waiting for downgrades....but Italy sold some crap..and someone bought it????? The Euro dropped like a rock.....its a daily move now...it used to take years to move that much...gold is down because the "risk" is off...just as we are waiting for downgrades...yeah..the risk is off..lol..its getting very wierd out there...
Speaking of weirdness... VIX is lagging like a motherfucker. S&P dropping balls, but my TVIX is relatively tame. Thanks MF, you rehypothecating sluts. What is happening? Unwinding hypos?
Tis the season to be unhedged and not buy near month puts. Market gets lazy and stupid on egg nog.
Sell vol and hope no one is around to sell equities :)
France needs to learn to play well with others........or else. Can you say CCC-
What are the chances that Ben surprises the markets with the announcement of a large MBS LSAP program tomorrow? What are the chances that Bill Gross and a good dozen hedge fund managers positioned for this announcement will hit their homerun?
Sadly that is possible. Though maybe they all think the other has the inside scoop and we won't get it
France downgraded tonight. Futures plummet.
Ben announces he's going to buy the world with the cash assistance provided by vacationing alien life forms tomorrow afternoon. Market zooms toward 1300.
Every time something gets downgraded, central bankers set the propaganda presses to warp speed.
It's almost as if it's one big plan, conceived by one big club, of which I am not in.
The question for central bankers - how do you best steal the wealth of China and Germany? Answer - tempt them into unstable financial positions that give them accelerated growth in the short term (both China and Germany were effectively providing sub-prime financing to their customers).
When all this falls apart, start the war machines.
Please downgrade, this will crash the paper gold/silver so that the physical market can step in and clean out the COMEX.
Today's rumor du jour will come out earlier than usual.
Rumeur de la minute.
I'm going long what I consider the ultimate contrarian bet. I've bought physical USD bills.
DXY > 80 and you go long USD? Very daring contrarian bet.
pay attention, s_er!
he didn't bet
he didn't go long DXY
he got a shoebox full0'money: 10's/ 20's/ 50's/ ? CASH
no longer in a bank, or at least a bank account
why? front-running cash and currency controls and "new retail banking" protocols resuling from bank runs, real or potential
if nothing happens, he still has the "money"
if "something" happens, he already has his "money"
do you?
I'm in that same trade. Here's why:
Sell gold to raise liquidity, meaning USD.
USD becomes scarce internationally.
USD skyrockets. Only way to control it is to print.
Also, just the sheer numbers of dumb founded dipshits out there spewing the 'buy gold, buy gold, all in gold' rhetoric reminds me of 2007 when a warehouse guy I knew figured he was a real estate expert because a bank gave him $400k to buy a 2bdrm condo.
Greedy when others are fearful. Fearful when others are greedy.
Hello I am new here, howdy!! My name is Karen I really like the web site and to let you know I am not much on the math of stocks but I always have some good info for those who care. There is a good vedio of Gerald Celenta on Economic Martial Law, and Anonymous- Message to the American People.
FUCKING DIE BITCH
BITCH DIE FUCKING
omg not another Celente pimp.
I'm becoming more convinced that this is really an all out currency war between the U.S./U.K and Europe. Ever since Saddam started trading oil in Euros (then more recently Iran) we've seen each one either being crushed (or about to be so) and now this - an all out attack on the Euro itself.
And they buy the dollar and sell gold. Rational markets? Ha. And tomorrow the head inmate babbles to the entire planet. What a disaster this country has become.
Who is the person putting 2 negative votes on all the posts????? Trolls with little imagination???
LWA and Shootist.
Like the spoon, there is no cash on the sidelines.
[Re]hypothecation meet counterparty risk bitchez!
I wish I could get a French Downgrade
well, with this headline on cnbc today: "Europe's Central Bankers Blind to Imminent Disaster", i am quite sure markets will just kickoff the xmas rally :-) These folks are just too stupid to predict anything close to reality.
easy on the SarCCCasm
Sarkozy was wandering around looking for someone to surrender to... no takers, but Botswana is a maybe...
Finally, the markets are starting the realize that the finanical structure of these European countries is the worst idea tha the Aspray "All Over" body deodorant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhI02b6qY24
What do you do if you are a Central Bank and want to take a country's assets? Like Italy's gold, for example?