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Friday Afternoon Humor From JP Morgan

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Because one is born every minute (even if one is ineligible for a mortgage with JPM).

 

h/t nolsgrad

 

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Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:49 | 1798294 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

Great, i am going to foreclose one and get one from JPM

Are they giving free lonas with negative interes?

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:53 | 1798324 flacon
flacon's picture

Is it a good time to buy a hobby farm, out in the sticks (Canada)? My elderly parents were wondering.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:54 | 1798331 SGS
SGS's picture

David Lebovitz.

Nuff said.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:01 | 1798345 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Allow me to save you some time with this condensed version.

BTFDYFI

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:18 | 1798444 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

"Many observers at the time realized that too many houses were being built, homeprices were rising too quickly and lending standards were being dangerously compromised in fueling the bubble."

LMAO... that's not how I remembered it. All I heard was buy, buy, and buy another one. Rewrite history much?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:41 | 1798529 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

"Many" as in the Fabulous Fab and John Paulson....

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:07 | 1798602 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Housing: Now is the Time to Buy MBS

A Presentation to the Federal Reserve

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:51 | 1799101 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Yow!  Just blew vodka out my nose.  Would appreciate a more specific warning.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 01:21 | 1799586 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

vodka and zerohedge Friday night is not the ideal way to prep for the weekend...unless you were about to buy a house. Because Fed is so confident in the economy that they said they will have ZIRP for next 2 years.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:45 | 1798895 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

I believe the correct quote is:

"Now is a good time to buy, or sell a home."

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/its_a_great_time.png

Thank you David Lereah...

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/david-lereah.jpg

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:54 | 1799108 J 457
J 457's picture

Strange, I heard the same buy, buy, buy story for stocks this last week as well.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 21:07 | 1799251 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

the time to buy will be at 10oz/ AU: 1 Median house.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:00 | 1798370 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I love the disclosure right next to the logo at the end:

NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | FRAUDS R US

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:10 | 1798412 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Is it normal all I can see is a two-wheeler desperately spinning out of a recurring dream instead of what is supposed to be pdf file ?

I am missing the humour.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:30 | 1798496 Jena
Jena's picture

and in the really tiny print:  BITCHEZ!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:55 | 1798333 Western
Western's picture

The only bubbles appear to be Vancouver and the tar sands cities like Calgary/Edmonton.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:58 | 1798353 flacon
flacon's picture

Looking at S.W Ontario. Land prices are pretty steep: $700,000 for 10 acre crop farm. I don't know if that is a "bubble" or not...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:47 | 1798719 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

SW Ontario land is pretty rich (in a farmland type of way). 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:56 | 1798338 Stevious
Stevious's picture

The problem with "out in the sticks" is what happens when gasoline goes to $15/gallon?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:58 | 1798349 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

No one sends food to New Yawk or DC.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:20 | 1798462 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

And small towns regain their significance.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:35 | 1798511 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Richard Cantillon's Essay on the Nature of Trade in General laid it all out nearly 300 years ago.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:20 | 1799009 Old Poor Richard
Old Poor Richard's picture

Good luck with that.

Read The Hunger Games, a book for teenagers about what totalitarian government does when insurrectionist/secessionist regions stop sending Caesar's share back to Rome.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:24 | 1798476 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Why wait?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:00 | 1798364 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Guess that depends if you have to drive to work and/or how far away your food actually has to travel.  Might want to avoid population centers for a while.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:02 | 1798381 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Horses increase in value.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:32 | 1798503 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"Horses increase in value"

Spoken like a true horse trader.lol

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:56 | 1798340 chet
chet's picture

Amazingly, the bubble hasn't popped yet in Canada.  Buyer beware.

Google what you can buy in Vancouver BC for $1 million.  It's funny.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:59 | 1798361 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Thank the Chinese.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:25 | 1798645 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

"Thank the Chinese."

Germans actually.  Which you might know had you ever been there.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:32 | 1798491 Catch-22
Catch-22's picture

Actually it's popping as we speak... Some areas have gone cold and inventories are mushrooming. The prices really have not gone dawn yet cause sellers are waiting for the soft spot to pass (transitory) and are holding their price. Unless your a momo, know is the time to short that bitch.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:37 | 1798521 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Just wait until Fukushima finishes enriching the place. Then the fun really starts.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:47 | 1798915 PMakoi
PMakoi's picture

LMHA (laugh my hair off)

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:50 | 1798731 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Not quite yet.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:37 | 1798673 doomz78
doomz78's picture
  • The canadian government is ignoring high inflation so their precious real estate market doesn't explode.  The more I look at it the more I see that we are also screwed in Canada.  Keep those interest rates low dummies.  The bubble is now ginormous.  Vancouver, Then Calgary, Then Toronto.   The biggest bubbles will pop first. 

Ben Bernanke also has a part in this...  Canadian central bank had to keep interest rates low to "compete" with the global market.  lol  In this competition you want your currency at zero.  F-cken meatheads.  Ben Bernanke is like a retard hopping along in a potato sack, so what does Mark Carney do? (Canadian central banker)  He grabs a potato sack, has a 26'er or rye and decides to race the other retard Bernanke.  Don't they look smart.  Two retards hopping side by side in an open field with genuine dumb ass grins on their faces.  It's a thing of beauty.  The race to create the next bubble.  ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:10 | 1798793 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I kind of agree that there is a real estate bubble in Canada. But...I'm so happy to be back home. Canada is a large country with a small population with incredible resources. We will do well. Unless the US invades us because of all the arctic oil. Or Jamie Dimon wants to take his smackdown of Carney to the next level. Canadian investors aren't that smart and they are conservative. They didn't take risks via CDS so little exposure.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 23:33 | 1799497 Dirt Rat
Dirt Rat's picture

Have you played Crack Shack or Mansion?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 02:18 | 1799616 Hicham
Hicham's picture

That's an excellent site! Pretty funny haha

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:02 | 1798585 Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

nah...wait until we have our housing crisis.....people running aroung my neighborhood with $500K / $600K mortgages because the banks let them. Because we're Canadian nothing's going to happen here like the US housing market.  Yep.....stay tuned  

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:13 | 1798807 prains
prains's picture

Is it a good time to buy a hobby farm, out in the sticks (Canada)? My elderly parents were wondering.

 

if you have to refer to canada as the sticks, chances are your attitude as well as your parents won't be welcome there for too long, you might want to try hobby farming in east LA instead

you'll go over great there.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:57 | 1798335 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Just makin' Jamie proud so when they all meet at Roosters later today the idiot author can say he recommended something.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:49 | 1798302 maxw3st
maxw3st's picture

How could anyone trust a bank for investment advice at this point? Rule of thumb, if a bank is selling, so should you-first if at all possible.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:31 | 1798502 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Remember that you are their counterparty, not their client.

Run Little Rabbit, run, run away.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:50 | 1798304 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

the only thing it may be a good time to buy is some JPM put options

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:50 | 1798307 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Forgive my language but what fucking planet are these morons on?

DavidC

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:18 | 1798447 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

On planet earth. Just on a different dimension. Hence the talk about "Surreal" by some ABBA fun chairman turned philosopher, proving they are all deep inside Plato's cave.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:34 | 1798510 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

You may have coined a new phrase..."surreal estate."

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:36 | 1798515 caerus
caerus's picture

i wish i had thought of that

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:25 | 1798644 Reptil
Reptil's picture

awesome

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:37 | 1798523 duo
duo's picture

Yup.  10,000 baby boomers retiring every week (and probably wanting to sell their house to some schmuck), 85% of last year's college grads living with their parents, less people making $50K or more per year than there was in 1997!  Where is the greater fool going to come from to buy your house?  No household formation equals no demand.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:47 | 1798704 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Apparently not the case in the UK (and potentially, Western Europe):

 

 

The  current  housing  crisis  is  not  principally  about  Britain  having  enough  housing  but  about   the  way  it  is  shared  between  older  and  younger  generations.

Under-­occupation  of  houses  is  encouraged  by  the  tax  system  and  there  are  now  25  million  surplus  bedrooms  in  under-­occupied  houses  in  England.  ‘Hoarding  of  living  space’  (under-­ occupation)  is  increasing  very  rapidly.

Under-­occupied  housing  has  increased  from  20%  of  all  households  to  about  33%,  according  to  the  English  Housing  Survey.

The  divide  between  the  housing-­haves  and  housing-­have-­nots  has  moved  from  being  one  dominated  by  class  to  one  dominated  by  age.  The  huge  increase  in  housing  wealth  by  the older  generation  was  broadly  matched  by  a  big  increase  in  mortgage  debt  by  younger  people.  

This  is  important  as  housing  wealth  has  grown  rapidly  –  from  about  the  same  as  GDP  in  1980  to  about  twice  that  level  over  the  last  30  years.

House  ownership  is  virtually  unaffordable  for  younger  people  in  the  parts  of  Britain  where there  is  work.  As  a  result,  private  renting  has  increased  by  over  50%  during  the  last  8  years.

16  million  people  now  live  in  under-­occupied  properties  in  England.  This  is  equivalent  to  37%  of  the  total  English  housing  stock.

Downsizing  amongst  the  over  65s  in  the  UK  has  stagnated,  unlike  the  US.

 

http://www.if.org.uk/archives/1229/hoarding-of-housing-the-intergenerati...

 

Covered by the Guardian, amongst others.

 

[edit due to stupid parsing errors]

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:52 | 1799106 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Forgive my language but what fucking planet are these morons on?

Oooo Oooo Oooo Mr Kateer Mr Kateer...Pick me pick me.

Well, it is a well know fact that every New yorker knows that Morgans come from planet Kardashian.

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 01:06 | 1799579 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

On the other hand the Goldmans are from Goa'uld. The name means "Children of the gods" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goa'uld hence Blankfein's assertion that he is doing God's work. Another little known financial fact, what I don't know I make up.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:52 | 1798308 gojam
gojam's picture
"Market Insights program is designed to provide our ?nancialadvisor partners with a way to address the markets and theeconomy based on logic rather than emotion, enabling theirclients to make rational investment decisions"       Translate that !!!
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:58 | 1798351 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

That says, "Trust us, we know what the hell we're doing and you don't." ....riiiiight

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:20 | 1798457 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

He's right. I have no idea what they are doing. Trolling for suckers like the Carnys they are, I guess.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 20:21 | 1799166 itstippy
itstippy's picture

Financial Advisor Speak.

The salt-of-the-Earth TV Ford guy just says, "Now's the time to buy a Ford!"

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:50 | 1798310 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

RDD: Reality Deficit Disorder

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:09 | 1798410 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Your avatar goes great with this "humor." I am sure that sheep is delectable!! And JPM is so greedy they are as obvious as Wile E. Meanwhile, sometimes those sheep are really sheep dogs "dressed to kill."

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:43 | 1798703 Balmyone
Balmyone's picture

Home affordability may be high, but the likelihood that a buyer today will be underwater on their mortgage tomorrow is high.  If mortgage rates were to rise, the effect on someone buying today would be to instantly put him under water along with the other 22% of current homeowners that are now underwater.

Sorry JPM, you a-holes, I think buying a house now sounds like a terrible idea.

The only thing I'm buyin is PHYSICAL gold and silver.

http://gainesvillecoins.com

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:03 | 1799949 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Mortgage rates will rise soon enough.  And not by 25 bps, either...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:52 | 1798318 Manthong
Manthong's picture

?  FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY/NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION


 Some sort of internal office Halloween gag?

 

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:10 | 1798415 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Institution is polite for nut house.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:52 | 1798321 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i think i will default on my under water mortgages and buy a cheaper house now. lmao

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:59 | 1798354 toady
toady's picture

Reverse that;

I'm going to buy a cheaper house, THEN default on my underwater properties.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:28 | 1798655 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i should fire chase and hire you as my financial adviser. ;)

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:42 | 1798901 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

You almost have it correct. 1) buy a new house 2) stop paying on current mortgages but continue to rent them out and collect the rent for the next year or 2, however long it takes for the bank to reposses them 3) Pay off huge portion of new mortgage with rental payments.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:31 | 1799035 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

anytime you want to start a hedge fund let us know.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 01:18 | 1799585 DeadFred
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:55 | 1798322 Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

Just think of all those miserable people out there with underwater mortgages and soul-crushing debt.  Not only can you take their house from them for way less than they paid for it, you can also assuage your conscience by becoming one of them in a few years.  It's a win-win.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:52 | 1798323 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

So that's how they plan to fix PrimeX...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:53 | 1798329 i_fly_me
i_fly_me's picture

They misspelled "Gold:"

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:01 | 1798373 moonstears
moonstears's picture

noted that, too...they spelled it "Housing". 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:54 | 1798332 Stevious
Stevious's picture

Off to the real estate agents...

Oh damn, I forgot, I'm unemployed--no loans for me....

Off to a real estate sales license school....

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:03 | 1798337 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

These people are just fucking goofy. My wife works for one of the largest real estate companies in town as a book keeper. Even through the worst of the crash they have faired pretty well and survived as a company. She just shared with me last night that for the first time in the history of the company they had to have a cash infusion to pay the bills.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 21:30 | 1799292 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Blood in the streets if you will...Lulz

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:56 | 1798339 caerus
caerus's picture

words fail me

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:03 | 1798384 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Try booze.  It is friday.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:10 | 1798414 caerus
caerus's picture

i like the way you think...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:53 | 1798740 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Trying but still not helping - damn!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:02 | 1798761 Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

You just need to try harder

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:58 | 1798355 THECOMINGDEPRESSION
THECOMINGDEPRESSION's picture

Here is where JMP Morgan employees will be:

http://www.bumhits.com

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:59 | 1798357 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

Home prices, housing demand and home building are very low, but they all seem set to increase. Housing inventories remain too high, but they are on a downward trend. And while the attitudes of both home buyers and home lenders remain very cautious, they should become less so in the years ahead.

in your dreams

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:59 | 1798359 Mark123
Mark123's picture

I am pretty sure these were the same guys that were strongly recommending it was a BAD time to buy for the last 5 years.  I am sure of it.  Really.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:00 | 1798366 Kinskian
Kinskian's picture

Just like the restaurant business... when the fish is going bad in the cooler it becomes that night's chef's special.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:02 | 1798375 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

1:00 pacific and I need to take a rape shower.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:06 | 1798401 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The Senate killed Obama's jobs(?) bill so now it's safe to go out and plunder and rape at will. That's what Biden has been saying anyway.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:49 | 1798548 fuu
fuu's picture

Working those machines over can be sweaty work.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:02 | 1798376 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I like this forced rally the last 15 min.  It makes me laugh to see such lunacy, I can start my weekend with a smile.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:06 | 1798397 caerus
caerus's picture

yup...spy gap up at open on abysmal volume on option expiry...so bullish

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:14 | 1798379 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Friday Afternoon Song From the Silver Summit

http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/720.cfm

This video debuted at the 2011 Silver Summit and was met with rousing applause by a rabid crowd of silver investors.

THE WORD IS GETTING OUT!

Just listened to Jeffery Christian's presentation at the Silver Summit and came away with 2 DOOZIES.

1) He has upped is previous "faux pas" of admitting 100-1 gold trading leverage on the LBM to 400-1 but he says it doesn't matter!

 2) Christian claimed that the "Drive By Shooting" in May was caused by a change of trading positions on the COMEX....WHICH IT WAS!

Of course, under US Commodity Law it is ILLEGAL for prices to be SET on the COMEX! The futures and options contracts can only be a "price discovery mechanism" and not a "price setting mechanism"!

Thanks again for your valuable insight Jeffery!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:13 | 1798811 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

The 3 Fuckan Stooges of PM's market. Christian, Nadler and Gartman.

Nadler came out today and said gold "might take a pause here for the next year or two." He bashed silver even more than that. You noticed he canceled at the Silver Summit?

Here he is in all his glorious douchebaginess...

http://www.kitco.com/Exclusive-News/

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:48 | 1798996 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Jeffy Christian practically got hooked off the stage in Spokane at the Silver Summit. 

 Bill Murphy made him look like the MORON that he is during the Great Manipulation of PMs debate today.

You can here this debate tomorrow @...

http://www.kitco.com/falltour2011/debate.html?utm_campaign=Silver-Debate-Email&utm_source=Registration

He won't be back next year.

Just like Nadler he is a lying stooge and a coward to boot.

*{Hope the mics pick up the hisses, boos and open laughter from the crowd in the room as Jeffy spoke.  What a hoot he is!}

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:02 | 1798380 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Remember the good old days when a weekend market would sell off into the close? Way back when we had some sort of reasonable market. I miss those days.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:09 | 1798411 Mark123
Mark123's picture

No, it makes total sense to load up on risky assets over a weekend where the outcome of a successful European summit is already priced in. 

 

I love how all market simultaneously reverse direction all at the same precise moment.  That's a a healthy sign.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:57 | 1798565 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, how can you win the lottery if you don't play?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:03 | 1798385 WallStreetClass...
WallStreetClassAction.com's picture

Is there a version printed on toilet paper roll?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:14 | 1798425 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Yea, there called CDO's.

Please tell me you got the memo?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:07 | 1798393 Parallel FORECLOSURE
Parallel FORECLOSURE's picture

What is not mentioned the JP morgan manifesto is that the ratio of consumer home equity and assets to consumer debt has SHRUNK in the past 10 years by an astounding amount.

In the past decade home equity has shrunk in half even as consumer debt has grown by leaps and bounds.

Almost a trillion in consumer credit card debt, over a trillion in student loan debt, more and more people being scarlet lettered because of a debt they could not restructure without first defaulting, thus ruining their credit score. Huge losses in 401K value.

We're talking an asset to debt ratio reduction of anywhere from 100% to 300% over what it was ten years ago.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:05 | 1798394 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

"It is time to buy"   (because everyone just found out we never owned or had the rights to any Washington Mutual loan we sold or foreclosed on, and we have lots and lots of legal bills)

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:08 | 1798407 Parallel FORECLOSURE
Parallel FORECLOSURE's picture

JP Morgan Chase keeps a litigation reserve of somewhere between 1 to 4 billion dollars.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:05 | 1798395 lemosbrasil
lemosbrasil's picture

hahahaha;;;;ive already heard many many times !

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:12 | 1798419 moonstears
moonstears's picture

They'll continue to say such, 'till it's true. Housing starts are wayyy down and at some point enough young people newly entering the market will consume these abundant existing homes. When is that? Why, media says it's when the prez's jobs bill has them all building bridges and roads, of course, wait, or, maybe they'll need to pay off that IT degree first, with those new construction job windfalls. I just can't figure it out, in my mind.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:13 | 1798430 pavman
pavman's picture

The problem is.... 70M people are retiring and 40M are still in school.  Do the math.  Won't happen until the 20s, if it happens at all.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:11 | 1798421 pavman
pavman's picture

"Moreover, home prices look downright cheap, not only from the perspective of mortgage rates and income, but also relative to the cost of renting or the cost of constructing a new home"

Until you add in outrageous taxes.  You know why I haven't bought a home?  Because the taxes these counties want is so ridiculously high.... in some cases its almost as high as the note itself on a per month calculation.  That's stupid.  Why would I want to pay an extra grand a month for the same liveable space?  And where's my money going when I throw it into the tax compactor?!  The problem is, they very rarely mention taxes or association fees because those are what makes owning a home a stupid idea, unless you can make money off of it or can find a way to distribute the expense across a number of renters.

The *only* reason I can see for owning property is to stave off the induced inflation that they are providing, but I think gold, in its nice portable form, is a much easier and more liquid way of hedging this problem.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:13 | 1798812 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

This again?

I don't care whether or not you want to buy a home- that's your decision.  But how is it you think you can avoid paying property taxes by renting?  Unless you're living in an RV and moving from parking lot to parking lot, your landlord will be including the property taxes in your rent.  They don't make money buy renting to you at a loss and paying the taxes out of pocket.

The only thing you're gaining is a sense of satisfaction in that you aren't seeing the property tax as a line item- and instead of getting something back when you move (even if it's less than you expected,) you have gained nothing by renting.  I just don't see the logic in the line of argument you propose.

Now if you just don't like doing maintainance, or are looking for greater mobility, those are valid reasons to rent- not everyone can or even should own a home, and that's fine.  But it's kind of a lame argument to claim that renters don't pay property tax- they do, it's just baked into the cake, and you don't get the tax write-off from interest paid.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 00:31 | 1799549 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Americans view a home as an investment, plain and simple.

That investment is no longer attractive.  It's losing value every year if not every month due to simple Econ 101 style demand collapse.

The bullshit report cited in the article alleges low price is a reason to buy this investment while overlooking the obvious trend indicating this investment will drop lower in price over time.

It's like stock brokers saying prices are low, buy now, negelcting to mention others are dumping those stocks and getting out.

Property taxes are not a wash between buying and renting these days.  Landlords are seeing less profit from rents due to weaker demand keeping rents capped while property taxes rise, effectively shielding renters from higher property taxes while landlords pay those tax increases out of their pockets.  So from a property tax standpiont renting is better in this market.

Getting something back when you sell and move is a flat out lie in this market where more and more sellers are getting nothing back but owing money instead.  It's called being underwater, and the percentage of mortgaged homes underwater is growing astoundingly fast.

You don't see the logic of his comment because you have blinders on, refusing the see the whole picture, seeing only what you want to see ...and telling buyers only what you want them to hear.

In other words you're a fraud and a con artist ...like most "Realtors" these days.  You shouldn't be in real estate.  You should be in bankruptcy, sued back to the stone age as they say ...if not in prison.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:12 | 1798423 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

Pretty vague report....but if you can access current rates, which presumes you have $$ in the bank and a great credit score, and you're buying a house to live in, not for expected appreciation...it is a good time to buy. You think inflation's going to ramp? great time to be holding some fixed rate debt. 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:12 | 1798427 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Yeah... I'm going to go ahead and go with No on this one...

I think I'll just buy gold and silver and then when prices bottom out, change asset classes...

I might not work at JP Morgan... but I guess this just proves they're not hiring at NASA anymore.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:27 | 1798867 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

I'm considering an option that would be somewhat aligned with the Morgue, but not in any way they would appreciate.

Where I'm at, farmlad is dirt cheap- I'm looking at a property with 20 acres and a pond on the property for $20,000.  It's otherwise untouched cropland- no well, electric, sewage, etc.

But here's the thing- I can build a house, dig a well, install a septic system and set up a solar array with another $10,000 or so.  That does suppose that I will be doing a lot of heavy work, but that's how it goes.  I have $30,000 in equity in my home, and I'm definately considering taking out a loan against it to buy the land and make it liveable.  If I can keep them both, that's great, and I can raise cattle on the land- but if I have to, I can let my house go, and have a place to land that is self-sufficient.  If that scenario occurs, I would need to earn $200 a year to cover the agricultural property taxes, but the farm would be mine otherwise.

To my mind, that is a far better option than turning my nose up at real estate, and hoping that I don't lose my job.  Landlords aren't all that indulgent towards people who don't pay their rent every month.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 21:33 | 1799300 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Priceless

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:14 | 1798436 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Dimon et al raping US and ROW again....when will U US voters say NO? I can not.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:18 | 1798449 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Whenever our votes count, we will you simplistic ... [insert offensive words here]... but I share your frustration, believe me.

It will probably happen around the time common sense "infects" the white house. You know, whenever all you get with foodstamps is a bag of rice and beans and powdered milk. When you can't vote in a public election if you receive any form of government benefits because it's clearly a conflict of interest, etc.

That being said no way in hell am I going to hold my breath.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:14 | 1798439 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

In September 2011, the ratio was just 153%, implying that to get back to an average price to income ratio, home prices would have to rise by about 27%

Or maybe, just maybe, incomes would have to fall by about 27%...(or whatever the math works out to.)

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:28 | 1798492 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Hey silly monkey with thumbs always trying to split one into two, we don't like your kind around here.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:30 | 1798498 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

They are mistaking their own Anchoring Bias for housing Mean Reversion.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:50 | 1798733 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The p. 6 chart on household income is from the NAR ( the point at which I quit reading)

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:23 | 1798441 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

JP: Please include the charts from the 1920s on.  Housing is getting cheaper, but there is still pain to come.  There are too many stupid/uninformed people that 'flipping' houses still.  Wait...did I say flipping.  I meant they are trying to flip.  The house has to actually sell to be a bona fide flip.

If the bond market breaks, e.g. (gasp) 7% 30 mortgages, you will see waterfall declines in R.E.

Moreover, the fact that this report is out there is a sign the bottom is not in.  When there are no reports to be found and the shelves at the retail book stores (the ones that are left) are completely cleared of RE investment books, then it will be time.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:20 | 1798459 Glass Steagall
Glass Steagall's picture

Anyone that makes a purchase on property that has had 'MERS' anywhere in it's DNA, is dead from the neck-up. Amazing that this shit is still going on...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:21 | 1798464 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

two words: Shadow Inventory

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:22 | 1798466 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Sorry, but those first 3 charts (A, B & C) are full of shit....

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:26 | 1798485 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

"Although the U.S. housing market remains extremely depressed, we believe that given current valuations and demographic dynamics AND the irrational stance things will go back to the way they were, now may be the time to consider an investment in housing."

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:46 | 1798541 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Demographic dynamics???

My kid moved to Mexico and is working down there. When there is no opportunity at home, the sharp ones move.

At the same time, there are folks raising Cain to deport a few million people. Now THAT is a cure for the inventory overhang for sure.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:32 | 1798493 devo
devo's picture

Don't they mean "It's time to buy a house (you're going to pay rent on until you die in the form of exponetially higher property taxes to help bail us out.)"??? Or am I missing something?

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:29 | 1798494 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

yaho news: 17 eurozone countries agreed to pay Grace the next batch of bail out.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:29 | 1798495 bluehorsesandal
bluehorsesandal's picture

JPM is getting criminal here...

They published a piece this week saying the end of the Euro crisis is in sight. No calculations, no details, no proper analysis, no reality assessment...

"It has been our view that Europe needed to come right to the edge of disaster

before it would be forced to make the painful decisions necessary to reverse

the crisis.  Europe has the resources to achieve this. It just needs to have the

political will to do so. This requires that the alternative is right in your face,

and that procrastination is no longer possible. It is our perception that these

conditions are in place today. The rest of the world is screaming for a solution

as it sees the Euro debt crisis as a super Lehman that can bring all down. It is

quite possible the rest of the world is willing to help though the IMF. We are

willing to interpret the strong disagreements still evident between France and

Germany and the postponing of the summit end to next Wednesday as signs

of the momentous decisions to be made rather than a breakdown in political

will to come up with a solution."

 

"Europe has the resources to achieve this." - No they do NOT!!! Germany GDP is 2.4trn and sov debt 85% of GDP. How on earth there is money to pay for anything at all... JP is lying again and desperately now... 

"It just needs to have the political will to do so." - Wrong again.  With or without political will there is no money and no magical solution.

: The J.P. Morgan View: A beginning to the end of the euro crisis

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:09 | 1798790 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Benny and Timmeh told Jamie that if the Europeans won't fix it, then they will.  Jamie is smiling...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:36 | 1798506 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Get 'em while they are cold.

                                    - Sir John Templeton

 

Let's see... if you want to make money you buy low, and sell high. Right now real estate prices are... low so it might be time to think about.... buying.

What caught my eye was the chart showing mortgage payments are now lower than rent. That means you can buy property and rent it out with net positive cash flow.

So, if you are making money every month how long can you afford to wait for a price rise?

Given the level of fiscal responsibility in government these days, do you think we are in an inflationary or deflationary period? My guess is inflationary.

But interest rates are very low... artificially low.

So, prices are low, interest rates are low, you can buy and hold with positive cash flow from rent. How good do you want it?

I should also point out for all you bottom pickers that real estate is not like stocks. It can take months to find the right property, negotiate a deal, and close. So  if you manage to pinpoint the exact bottom of the market you might buy 1 house at the low. While if all you are looking for is a good deal, you can buy all you want as prices slide down then start to climb again.

This is not a quick flip or fast buck scheme. It might well take 10 years for real estate to turn around. But when it does those who have positioned themselves with bargain properties with bargain mortgages and positive cash flow are going to do very, very well.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:40 | 1798524 devo
devo's picture

Prices are not low. They are low relative to an extremely inflated bubble. Homes aren't even fairly valued yet. I could buy one in cash, and I'm not even considering it. Stupid purchase. The only argument for buying is that you see money being worthless so it's better to own a tangible asset.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:39 | 1798528 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Sounds good as long as you have 50% of the value to put down.  That's the going rate to even talk to anyone.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:16 | 1798824 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

There are quaity deals out there with positive leverage, however, the ooverall market will continue to deteriorate.  Did anyone see the Fannie/Freddie forecasts posted recently on ZH?  Predicting more than 7% drop in home prices nationally over the next year. This means more underater loans, more foreclosures, more supply and lower prices. My concern with buying right now is that while in the frame of the present is seems like a no miss deal, over the long haul price reductions of 7+% will kiil the return on any deal unless prices come back soon...and that ain't gonna haappen.  I don't suggest timing the bottom of the market as a strategy, but I am saying that until the potential for significant reductions in price go away (this is a long way off), be very careful abut buying real estate.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 01:46 | 1799588 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

While if all you are looking for is a good deal, you can buy all you want as prices slide down then start to climb again.

There are no good deals when home values are going to drop 30% - 50% in 5 years ...which anyone with a reasonable knowledge of the housing bubble, MERS fiasco, and coming prime meltdown can see  ...which apparently doesn't include you.

Home values will fall double what they've fallen already.  25% drop to date will become 50% - 70% drop in 5 years.  We haven't seen the bottom fall out of this market yet, but we will.

If you must buy rather than rent, no problem, get the best deal you can and be prepared for the value to collapse.  Very simple.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:36 | 1798517 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Median income around $27,000 means half the population can't even afford a refrigerator, let alone the box.

Now that's just plain mean!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:24 | 1798639 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

they took median income of JPM employees

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:18 | 1798829 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Federal employes can!  UAW workers can!  Longshoreman can!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:44 | 1798534 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

If buying is good why is JP selling?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:53 | 1798559 devo
devo's picture

Haha, right on.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:28 | 1798648 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

 

why is JP selling?

because they still have millions of homes to foreclose and have not enough space in their books

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:44 | 1798537 fuu
fuu's picture

The word cloud for that thing is pretty ugly.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15/jpmorgue.png/

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:31 | 1798666 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

are they closing mines?

there are two oreclosures

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:04 | 1798771 fuu
fuu's picture

Maybe that is the mythical short?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:47 | 1798917 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the lode-shorters are strange, indeed, fuu

it was the banksters oreclosing all along? 

wow!  <head explodeZ> 

is that a tailing indicator, or what?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:11 | 1798981 fuu
fuu's picture

<genuflect>

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:01 | 1798579 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

First question that comes to mind (after wondering if this clown is delusional) is "how much exposure does JPM have to the MBS market?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:01 | 1798581 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

This HAS to be some sort of sick fukin' joke...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:01 | 1798583 pauhana
pauhana's picture

Most of those charts seem to droop at the right.  Think I'll wait until something goes up.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:22 | 1798632 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

LOL, "For internal use only" and they let it leak. Nice try.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:31 | 1798652 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:28 | 1798656 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

107: How many months it would take to sell banks’ current and shadow inventory of foreclosed homes.

Banks’ vast pile of foreclosed homes doesn’t appear to be diminishing. That’s a troubling sign for the future of the housing market.

Back in April, this column tallied up all the foreclosed homes sitting in banks’ inventory, as well as the “shadow” inventory of homes in the foreclosure process or on which owners had missed at least two mortgage payments. At the time, we reported that at the current rate of sales, it would take 103 months to unload it all.

Over the past six months, that number has actually risen. Banks managed to pare down the shadow inventory, but largely by taking possession of foreclosed homes. As of September, they owned nearly 994,000 foreclosed homes, up 21% from a year earlier. The shadow inventory stood at 5.2 million homes, down 7% from a year earlier. Grand total: 107 months of inventory.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/10/3...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:21 | 1798840 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

You could sell every house tomorrow if it was priced right...but the banks don't want to take the hit. Imagine that!

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