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Frontrunning: November 7
- China Stocks Drop Most in Two Weeks on Slumping Auto Sales, Property Curbs (Bloomberg)
- Berlusconi’s Majority Unravel as Allies Turning (Bloomberg)
- Greece to form coalition government (FT)
- Wen Pledges Property Tightening Resolve (WSJ)
- G20 seeks more talks on eurozone crisis (FT)
- ECB Free to Stop Buying Italian Bonds, Mersch Tells La Stampa (Bloomberg)
- Unloved Treasury Notes Becoming Investor Favorite in Fed’s Operation Twist (Bloomberg)
- World Dodges Recession With China-U.S. Buoy (Bloomberg)
- Budget Battle to Shadow Obama on Asia-Pacific Tour (Reuters)
European Economic update:
- Eurozone Retail Sales for September -0.7% m/m -1.5% y/y – lower than expected. Consensus -0.1% m/m -0.5% y/y. Previous -0.3% m/m -1.0% y/y. Revised 0.1% m/m -0.1% y/y.
- Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence for November -21.2 – lower than expected. Consensus -20.0. Previous -18.5.
- Germany Industrial Production s.a for September -2.7% m/m – lower than expected. Consensus -0.9% m/m. Previous -1.0% m/m.
- Norway Industrial Production s.a. for September -0.1% m/m. Previous 3.6% m/m.
- Norway Industrial Production w.d.a.j. for September 4.2%. Previous 6.1%.
- Switzerland CPI - for October -0.1% y/y – lower than expected. Consensus 0.2%. Previous 0.5%.
- UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year for October -1.8% -higher than expected. Consensus -2.3%. Previous -2.3%.
- UK Halifax House Prices s.a. for October 1.2% m/m – higher than expected. Consensus 0.1%. Previous -0.5%.
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And all the while, perhaps the biggest "black swan" is that the military build-up continues as much political pressure is applied for less diplomacy, less trade, and more war.
Proposed AIPAC-backed legislation would throttle the ability of the US to conduct actual diplomacy (on the off chance the US government would realistically begin to do so with Iran), and would engage the US in a global trade war, all intended to precipitate armed conflict with Iran and, well, also just about everybody who opposes US hegemony, aka “terrorists“.
AIPAC works very closely (hand-in-glove) with the leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and Howard Berman (D-CA).
Quoting the latest committee-approved bill regarding diplomacy:
“c) RESTRICTION ON CONTACT. -- No person employed with the United States Government may contact in an official or unofficial capacity any person that -- (1) is an agent, instrumentality, or official of, is affiliated with, or is serving as a representative of the Government of Iran; and (2) presents a threat to the United States or is affiliated with terrorist organizations. (d) WAIVER. -- The President may waive the requirements of subsection (c) if the President determines and so reports to the appropriate congressional committees 15 days prior to the exercise of waiver authority that failure to exercise such waiver authority would pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the vital national security interests of the United States.”
As for the trade implications:
“Likewise, the application of the sanctions in this legislation would have a dramatic impact on US commercial and diplomatic relations with Russia and China, who both do business with Iran. It would impose strong sanctions on these countries and would prohibit foreign business leaders – and their spouses and children – from entering the United States. Do we want to start a trade war – or worse – with Russia and China?”
- Ron Paul
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