This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
By Frontrunning QE, Did The Market Make QE Impossible?
Ever since the beginning of the year we have been saying that in order for the Fed to unleash QE, stocks have to drop by 20-30% to give political cover to the Fed (and/or ECB) to engage in another round of wanton currency destruction. Because while on one hand the temptation to boost stocks is so very high in an election year, the threat to one's presidential re-election chances that soaring gas prices late into the summer does, is simply far too big to be ignored. Yet here we are: stocks are just 4% off their 2012 highs, even as bonds are near all time low yields, and mortgages are at their all time lows. As such, even with the latest batch of economic data coming in simply atrocious, the Fed finds itself in a Catch 22 - it wants to help the stock market hoping that in itself will boost the "economy", yet it knows what more QE here will do to the priced of gold and inflation expectations: something which as Hilsenrath himself said yesterday does not compute, as it runs against everything "Economic textbooks" teach. What is more important, is that the market, like a true addict, is oblivious to any of these considerations, and has priced in a massive bout of Quantitative Easing to be announced tomorrow at 2:15 pm. There is one problem though: has the market, by pricing in QE on every down day - the only buying catalyst in the past month have been hopes of more QE - made QE impossible? Observe the following chart from SocGen which shows 6 month forward equity vol. What is obvious is that due to precisely being priced in, QE is now virtually unfeasible, irrelevant of what Goldman and its "FLOW QE" model tell us. As SocGen simply states: "More stress is needed to trigger ample policy response."
Naturally, SocGen is not the first to get this. Recall that this is precisely the logical espoused by both Citi a month ago which warned of XO crossing above 1000 bps first, and then Deutsche Bank this weekend saying a crash may well be needed to jar Europe out of inactivity like last fall. Not to Goldman though. Goldman is confident that the 4% drop in the S&P from its highs is enough to unleash an epic episode of monetization. Well, the chart below begs to differ.
Of course, if Goldman is right, and the Fed does indeed go ahead and launch some version of a Flow-based easing program, with a $50-$75 billion monthly monetization total, then kiss it all goodbye, as going forward the market will consider even a one tick drop in the ES a sufficient reason to kill the USD, and buy every ounce of physical gold available. In the process, of course, the Weimar wheels will start turning.
Furthermore, while stocks are always in their little world, and always, absolutely always wrong in the long-run, recall that the fixed income markets are saying something totally different: no bombastic LSAP program, but a very timid Op Twist expansion, where the 3 year selling threshold is extended by one year to include 4 year bond sales. An outcome such as this will send stocks plunging as it is merely more sterilized easing - the kind of intervention that has had no real impact on risk at all as all risk gains in the past 9 months have came solely from Europe's $1.3 trillion LTRO-based balance sheet expansion.
So what will it be? More QE, whereby the Fed admits defeat and hands over the monetary apparatus to an increasingly more petulant market, or no QE, and a wholesale risk crash in one day.
Tune in tomorrow at 2:15 pm to find out.
- 18721 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -



rogue trading algos harshing the 'Printer in Chief's' buzz...
~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU
LOL! ... but no ...
Don Bernanke does not get pulled back in tomorrow ...
If Goldman Sachs says "This is going to happen ..." by now you should know the exact opposite is what is going to happen - and the Squid will make more money in the process.
Bernanke has only one QE left in the quiver - QEEND - the QE to rule ALL QE's which will occur when the EU/euro collapses.
EU/euro collapse to be triggered by GERMexit - Germany (with or without Frau Merkel) deciding to do the ONLY wise choice left - Get out of the Pauper's Society.
The foundering EU/euro then becomes the ChairSatan's Cat's Paw ... ANOTHER currency he can control and debase at will.
barliman
Why do we have to keep reading these articles questioning QE? How does anyone think that we close the $100 billion+ a month gap in our federal "budget"? Every. Single. Month. Sheesh.
Budget cuts across the board? hahahahahahahahahahahaha
Catch 22 !!
Rising in anticipation of the only saving grace, prevented it.
How about a take your country back Tea Party? Uhhh, nope.
Okay, I know, a debt ceiling debate! Oops, nope. That only proved there isn't any debt ceiling.
I got it! A Super Committee! Damn. DOA there.
What will 'we' do? Not sure, especially when I don't know who this 'we' is. Sounds like it might be a bunch of people that are on either the Government's or a Banker's dole.
Here's what I'll do. 'I' will buy Gold and Silver and stash it away. I have done so in the past and will continue to do so in the future. What will 'you' do?
Shalom is feeling unappreciated lately and won't do another QE until Blankfein and Dimon both get on their knees and lick his balls.
I think it is the other way around. Ben is The Help.
QE-Flow is methadone. no true junky is stoked to be on methadone, but they dont crash either...
i agree about QE-End... but there is also indirect QE via IMF arrangements (swap lines, etc)...
europe will not crash until after the olypmics.
There is only one path forward for Europe.
They can either all commit fiscal suicide together trying reverse the Three Laws of ThermoGoddamics with respect to unbalanced economic flows and the euro:
Or ... they accept the inevitable Decline in Your Standard of Living Expectations (if you are already bankrupt or not big enough to bail out thy neighbors) ...
... which means everybody in the EU except for Germany.
If Germany does a clean, fast exit from the EU/euro - they can sit back and pick up once-in-a-lifetime deals around Europe.
What will the Germans do?
Here is a live exercise for anyone who needs some perspective:
Fly to Mexico City. When you get off the plane speak English with a heavy German accent and get into the nearest taxi.
If you make it to your hotel alive ... you were not a very convincing German. Rinse and repeat until you are dead.
Mexicans HATE Germans for a reason. They are not fond of Americans but they truly HATE Germans for economically exploiting them for decades.
barliman
P.S. No offense, but the Olympics are not a factor in continuing the "extend and pretend" delusions. I like the British but they really should have realized hosting the Olympic Games was equivalent to painting a target on their collective foreheads. God willing, nothing bad happens but I have been there before when terrorism was just another form of free speech. I would not attend teh Olympics in London if you were giving me 10X my weight in physical gold.
Your totally right, he has only one QE left in the quiver. And that is the one for the collapse of the Euro and the implosion of the EU. He knows that all this debt sloshing around Greece and Spain and Italy can't pay it back. And all these games of trying to brow beat the market into going up and staying up isn't working as much. When he uses the last QE, he wants to use it when people are screaming for it to be used and it will be big (even though it will delay the problem again for awhile). Also Obama doesn't want a QE, not yet. There are political ramifications also. DThe last thing he wants is the republicans to point that more tax payer money is being used to staunch the bleeding of his economy.
He needs to save his "QE/USA", in case they decide to "QE/EU".
Tune in at 2.15pm to find out??? The announcement is at 12.30pm yer? If there was to be QE it would be announced 12.30, not at the press conference? Sorry need some clarification as Do I need to say up till 3.30am or 5.15am? from Australia
Just read the news when you wake up. Jeeeez.
this is all so much fun! what about a "simi" QE?
Dude, my puts are killing me right now... Let's do a QE next quarter Okay?
There will be nothing definitive tomorrow , as usual.
What I mean is....Let me be perfectly clear....that is to say....perhaps....let me say this about that....well, um, er....
And you may quote me !
Hahahahah..... I just leaked in my diaper. The night time nurse is going to get real mad this time. But it's the only thing I can do to get her to look at my penis. P.S. No formal QE and gold n silver will take a dumpski. But alas, who cares....they can't and will never stop printing. Inflation is their game. gold is mine.
I don't follow this at all and I have not heard Bruce Krasting talk about it much. Anyone know if bitcoin is on to something in Europe?
?Joerg Platzer, a German who owns the Room 77 restaurant in Berlin's hip Kreuzberg section, has lost his appetite for euros. Instead, he has put a large fraction of his money into Bitcoin, an online currency.
"What the euro crisis and possible breakdown does is make people think about alternative [currencies] that can be used to maintain business and that cannot be manipulated by any central organization whatsoever," he told DailyFinance"
Shmuck, he should've donated those moneys to charity
Well we have fake money; why not fake QE? Cheaper and easier.
Dude FB is almost at 32 today. WTF!
As expected, the groupon effect.
1 more week and it's shortable again :)
These pesky web startups need to go away. I want real companies again. =\
Enron, Delorian motor company....
Delorian is back - just don't expect it to go 88 mph...
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/back-future-delorean-plans-electric-car...
If it wasn't for the Delorean, we wouldn't have Back to the Future. I'm fine with the course of history as it is. =P
The FOMC announcement is at 12:30PM EST. The Chairsatan press conference is at 2:15PM EST.
Makes sense to me. But just who is selling tomorrow that will cause such a crash? Who will be buying?
I know, I don't know much...
That's why your the smartest guy on the board ;)
who is the smartest guy? ive been looking for someone to answer this for me, i dont get it... the citi reference of "XO crossing above 1000 bps" what does this mean??? thx..
it is a link for people who don't know what it means to click on and read to find out?
you probably tried, but maybe didn't get it
i wouuld try to explain more but this is tyler's rant and i do not see the FED role as he does any longer
we are diverging!
i have even developed entire economic and market theories and quite simple ones, really, based upon the new role and job description of the FED under dodd/frank, 2300 pages signed abt 2 years ago
unfortunately, very few people know what's in it, yet
so they do not fully understand the FED's job description; when billDudley's friends from the squid write volumes which show they have no fuking idea what the FED's s'posed to be doing either, then people may believe such things must happen b/c that is how it usta werk for the circle-jerks
it is like trying to order lunch in a joint where they changed the menu a year ago and the wait-staff hasn't noticed, yet
politically, the chairsatan & timmah have power that alanG and hankyPanky only dreamed of, imo; i don't mean that as a criticism, but rather to indicate they can't be pushed around; they can be taken out by taking out prez0. but they are trying to do something right here, imo, and they will not be politically negated; this is old stuff, but it has new cajones in this law, imo
very much of the pro-mitten stuff i have seen that has been a cut above mindless stresses that mittens knows what is to be done and will make the personnel changes and the policy changes to fix what needs fixin
now, i'm not gonna get partisan here, ok?
this does seem to be the main credibility issue of the election so far: mittens can make this better economically, even if he can't do it fast (rosie)
peeps who believe that will probably vote R and change the whole dealy if they can
others (Dems) may say: not so fast, please! these gentlemen are doing much better than the last bunch (which ain't sayin much, but is true: 6 is much better than 2 even in a scale to 50) the argument might go, so don't stop them now; this doesn't call for a crisis of confidence no matter how different prez0 is from who we thought he might be, whether we voted for him, or not
that carpet in the oval office does some strange thigs to people i think: monica 101
anyhow, the FED has one or two new jobs that are real important for it to take care of before anything else; i'm not making this up; slewie neither wrote the law, voted on it, nor signed it, either! but the chairsatan (FED), timmah (T), dodd (senate) frank (house) and (prez)0 did; they wrote it; they passed it; and they signed it into law
p.o.w.e.r.
i would say that nearly 100% of the writers and bloggers here "innocently forgets" these facts 24/7/366
as far as i know, very few people beside slewie have written about FED actions in the light of the FED's actual job description in the last six months
we see stuff about the old job description or the last one or the "dual" one; but not about the new one
it is much more fun to pretend; then, if the ideas catch on, people will get together and pretend they knew it all along...
win-win! L0L!!! anyhow this is major financial legislation and summa daBoyz wanna take it down and this is their first & best shot, imo
the legislation was written to correct some of the problems, oversights, and uh, trillions of dollars in bubbled-up&out financial losses & frauds of copious pedigree and type just prior to 2010
so, politics! there is no fuking LSAP QE b/c the FED's responsibility is to stabilty and the system isn't entirely stable, yet. is it? diminishing returns; QE doesn't pay, it costs; little things mean a lot, at times; shit like dat
the FED has slowed/stopped that 'fix' and it is all the talk of the junkie world
only the T and sytemic cautery sites are getting the stuff; forunately, for ponzienomics, there is no shortage of needs for decentralized QE and swaps; and: the checks are in the mail
next week: $20 Tril N0W? or: will fungibility win again? Hahaha!
ok, i found it. Crossover is in reference to the Crossover index, which is basically a CDS index of 50 companies... got it.
we can vote on FED policy this year, but nobody will talk about it for fear of pissing off their bagmen
b/c of dodd/frank and the fact that the FED is administering this law the political wave would break both ways as follows:
democrats would like to give this law a bit more time simply b/c it was projected into what had become lawlessness and chaos and may actually function as a counterbalance so they can get their shares, too
republicans want it tossed or gutted and want theTreasury and the FED back along with capturing the flag @ 1600electricavenue
one of these guys will get the nod and it will be on this or something close to it since the truth is not allowed on TV; we'll hafta see whom the justices want this time? or will thePeople choose one form of can-kicking as morally superior to the other?
action junkies may like the G0P here while the young&old may simply want to beg, borrow, steal for 4 more years with smaller bonuses for wall street
either way, the economy is the apple that rolled under the passenger seat two sets of tires ago...
hungry?
Fukkit I'm gonna go fishin tomorrow....you should too.
Does your fish bite? No. <Chomp!> I thought you said your fish does not bite.
It is not my fish.
Fukkit Dude- let's go bowling.
The need to get ahead of the curve on the sovereign debt problems in Europe or some such nonsense. Any old excuse will do when infinity is at stake.
Perhaps a serving of unintended consequences Mr. Chairman?
I can't imagine any announcement about any more QE at this time. I mean what could possibly warrant it? More QE based on what? It ain't gonna happen. If it were, then the bastards would have tanked the market today rather than running another bull trap like they did. I shorted the bitch just based on the fact that JPM's corrupt practices are so 100% guaranteed. That's why the market blasted off today and that's why I shorted it. Just one toe in yesterday and a bigger one today. Still have 8 more toes too.
QE never stopped. It's what keeps the federal government going. It just went incognito.
Albertarocks,
You sound logical, but I can see QE based on the fact that oil prices aren't that high, so let's go.
Yes. BS bernank said in testimony less than two weeks ago that there was no reason to ease further at this time. The Greek election outcome last week would only solidify that position.
The Fed must try to maintain it's own credibility as well. The perception that there is too much or indiscriminant debt creation must be avoided.
Finally, BS almost certainly feels the situation in Europe must be more resolved before a sound plan for US monetary policy can be implemented.
agreed - this article makes complete sense to me.
the bernank can pay now or pay later. the stock market owns him.
They'll do whatever the fuck they want to do.
That's my thesis.
Quoted for truth. The headest of head honchos calling the shots from some tropical paradise with hella booze and women and stuff... we don't know what he's deciding. We're spectators to his game. Could it be Hugh Hefner?
The Ghost Of Cecil Rhodes and his KT fuckbuddies. No wonder they were accused of homosexuality and heresy - they'll fuck anything, then kill it.
If there is a merciful Horus, they're all fucked in the afterlife. It's a sad, sad time to know what they've done, after all they've been given.
It's a good thing they didn't make it into their redoubts before 3/11. We're all going to go at the same time, families and all. They can stockpile all the cancer drugs they want, it won't help. They killed off the human race, and will be accorded their due. Plutonium uber alles.
Surely, you must mean unpossible?
At least with casinos, there is a chance of winning.
And free drinks.
Hello mister Pavlov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Pavlov
Godmanites are market makers... they need to match their short positions with muppets long positions that's why they sale bs today about QE
UNless Benya is on suicide watch i don't see it happenning ( tought .. they are many things i did not see happening before they happened.)
Whatever we expect... It won't be the opposite but the stuff you didn't even think about.
It's always like this.
The best trading tactic these days is to bet against yourself.
I did a test last week. I told a friend to do what he thought was the opposite of everything I said. I say a lot of stuff so that wasn't easy, but that fucker made money and I lost money...
I am also conducting a similar experiment. I'm not a trader. Just trying to be a survivor. I dusted off my all-in-cash 401k, put 50% in an S&P index fund last week while stockpiling some more fiat to add to my physical silver, in case there is no QE. My "bet" is on QE tomorrow. My gut tells me different.
it would be spectacular to see them not announce qe and treasuries sell off massively. That would literally be the canary dropping dead right in front of our eyes.
More twist and roll overs
exactly. the only reason treasuries are at these levels is because everyone is buying them to flip when the FED comes in.. if Benny isnt there to take the 39% that he doesnt already buy they gonna be dumped and fast.. they were purchased to flip not to hold..
UncleBens checked himsdelf good and propper. This will be a interesting FOMC... nothing is clear cut. could go any way. QE or no QE DXY could rise or fall.. the whole things fucked up..
but i agree with your point.. and could even see that happeing to be honest..
No QE, dollar falls, Gold rises, stocks fall.. now wouldnt that be something!!
I think they keep the Europe fear machine running full tilt to keep everyone nice and scared and buying treasuries. But it would be something to see if people woke the fk up and decided maybe 4% for ten years was more reasonable....at a minimum.
They will of course keep this going as a distraction, its the only saving grace the US has at the minute. Orchestrated i would say but thats another matter. The EU as a whole ran a budget surplus and for some reason the crisis is in Europe? like fuck. Indeed we are pretty bankrupt over here but the US is far beyond anything.
Merkel, Putin and old china girl know the game, i think they are holding out.. not printing anymore. take the pain as the know they can take it.. its the US that cant afford to NOT print. These guys have money, they have savings..
I dont think ECB will print QE. I dont think BRICS will print QE. Only US and UK will do it.
This game is up soon.
They want stocks running hot in October but peaking a little by then, so that everyone knows they need to vote for the status quo or die. So to get that scenario they will roll out da free moniez in early August to buy an 8 week ramp into November.
Now, to roll da moniez requires a few weeks of sell-offs, being most of July.
Takes a while to get that kind of death spiral on the charts. They need to pull life support near the end of June.
That's in a week.
So: Tmrw they mumble something about "markets are ok lol" but it's enough to scare people -- what is this no QE? wtf I'm outtie luzers -- to produce a week of profit-taking and flat markets. Then they come back in a press conference around July 1 and say "markets need to get over QE becuz u r all lamerz lol" and the undertow will take hold. Then they'll come back end of July after Eurozone starts to seriously implode with "oops we bad here is some moniez anyway lulz" and the game will be on.
Obama wins reelection, 53% to 42% with 5% voting "fuckoff".
53% of what - 40%?
Anyway, I like your thinking. Everything happening now is tied one way or another to November.
+ Over 9000 Internets for this great post.
Sign this guy up as a contributor. He gets GW's place.
+ 100
I really don't get why so many analysts assume that the Bernanke gives a rat's ass about Obama winning. What's Romney -- chopped liver? He's a banker's dream, and he can blame Obama for all the economic problems while they continue to line their pockets with new giveaways, reduce their taxes, eliminate capital gains, etc. The bankers may love Obama, but they are in love with Romney.
If you have a dog that licks your balls without bitting them, you don't trade him in for a jack russel that doesn't know all the tricks and thinks ball ball play time 24/7
+1 for the whole comment, bonus +1,000,000,000 for ball ball play time
But in this case, they will be trading in a dog that licks their balls for a dog with proven deep throat skills. No training required and he won't have to worry about pretending to be a progressive with tax rates and so forth. We'll have a better idea tomorrow, I suppose. I predict they let the market tank big time ahead of the election.
I think you'll know who they want by what happens over the next few months.
I like the way you think. I need a new dog.
Sea salt ,rock salt.
Bud, Bud light
Johnny red, Johnny black
Robama, Boamney
I really don't give a rats ass anymore. I'm going to shoot some .40 S&W & Canadian Mist. These motherfuckers can have it I'll take as it comes.
What if China et al front ran it and bought US equity because they didn't want QE? What if they have been doing this for awhile now?
And risk of having to pay more for their gold?
Seems unlikely but from their point of view better off holding US equities (as well as commodities) when their treasuries go to zero
Only thing that is certain is that Robot Trader will come on here tomorrow & tell us which stocks went up yesterday... (Unless, of course, they didn't, & he'll be telling us about how HUMANS can't get enough of 10y treasuries at 1.6%)...
He's like those mexican singers that you give a 20 so they just shut the fuck up and go away...
I much prefer Million Dollar Bonus over Robot Trader.....MDB was epic during Faceplant, er, Facebook....
That really doesn't work they just walk around a bit and then come back for the sucker.
China could have been shorting miners hoping to drive the price of bullion down while buying T and watching Bernanke squirm about QE or not QE.
OR increasing the value of theor gold.
i always wondered how it must have been to live under communism and i now have the answer. truly debilitiating when nothing except the whims of some bureaucrat in his dream world in a far away capital controls all aspects of your existence. Like Reagan said , the central question is whether we believe men in a far away capital can plan our lives better than we can plan them ourselves.
Indeed. And they wonder why no one is starting a business that the officials might arbitrarily attempt to destroy by price fixing the commodity you create or need into unprofitablity or scarcity.
These fucktards don't understand they only have the power to destroy. They need to get the Hell out of the markets so we can have some capitalism.
It is no coincidence that the stocks they choose for you to stick you money in are all worthless non-productive websites. Those inflationary reservoirs consume no commodities. Price fixing won't kill them. They won't add to scarcity. They are allowed to live and become bubbles.
virtual capitalism
@Zola
What is truly breathtaking about our recent history is that, in 3 years, we've totally dropped the facade that America and the Western Powers were free capital markets. The fate of nations rests not on individual initiative, but on a group of unelected central planners.
And whoever is holding the most gold and nukes.
+1...great quote from Reagan....except for the fact that Reagan began much of the wall street cronyism that led us to where we are today.
@zola, reagan was as much of a central planner as any other progressive president. he spent the countrys money at a blistering pace to benefit the military industrial complex...he created a whole new generation of govt welfare recipients in the form of pentagon handouts......please spare me the "small government" reagan....
Listen you fucktards,,, running the USSR into the ground and eliminating the threat of MAD was one of the great achievemnts of the last 50 years... we have been benefiting from the peace dividend for the last 30 years...the only problem was that dividend was wasted and spent on shit like Obama care
You're being sarcastic, right? Not the last four words, mind you,but the Cold War was a scam so TPTB could make money.
"Give me Liberty, or Give me Death!"
"Sit down, grab yourself an eggroll" - Drexl Bernanke
you only get eggroll with QE6...
how about they want to destroy obama anyway, he's sevred his purpose. the sacrificial lamb amybe.. get the final print from his administration, dump him and ensure some hardcore right wing austerity candidate in the future.
ROLL ON FASCISM USA!!
think people
there will be some pissed off [insert gong sound here] if that happens... They're not gonna understand those types of eccentricities... The vast majority are still in Grant Park waving "Yes We Did" banners...
[an meine Feinde> Ich freue mich drauf, dass sie irgendwann vom reaktionaeren Mob geschaechtet werden. Viel Spass]
Gleichschaltung
Oh, i really meant it this time, my bad. And those proscription lists were always semi-public, so vengeance and the loot would be distributed fairly.
huhn gebraten
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pyW6w5B7Aw
There are times i wish i could just wave with my boater hat and mind my own business.
It doesn't matter which lackey sits in the Oval Office.
Some sort of accommodation, whether its a new program or continuation/modification of an existing one, will be the result. If it's only a continuation (probable) the market will react unfavorably for a day, to show it's disappointment. Then, the rally continues through the summer, as traders realize that easy money is here to stay, forever. Get long on tomorrow's dip.
Since stocks have gone no where in a decade, I am going to say "no".
And since shorts are frontrunning a non announcement the S&P will probably hit 1600 almost immediately if he does announce it
I am really excited about the prospect of the Bernank announcing no QE because the economy is doing fine blah blah blah only for the market to get crushed within a matter of hours/days forcing him to announce QE because the economy is imploding.
Frontrunning QE??
The QE hasn't stopped!! Fuck this circus...
20% drop and 'political cover' are rediculous ideas.
The Fed prints when gasoline prices allow, it's that simple.
There will be no QE announcement and no market imposion will be tolerated. They will buy equities and continue op twist, under cover!
So what will it be? More QE, whereby the Fed admits defeat and hands over the monetary apparatus to an increasingly more petulant market, or no QE, and a wholesale risk crash in one day.
there will be no qe and a wholesale crash in pms/commodities. stocks will be levitated by the plunge protection team....or are they out of business?.............
Kito I agree but don't you think equities take a bath too? If the ppt can keep equities up tomorrow while everything else bombs I am buying all of Robo's favorite picks because they really have things nailed down.
Buy BAC. Just check out the chart since 1995....brilliant!
Up 4.5% today. Great if you don't look at history. But is that not the entire market now....basically day trading, front-running, insider trading, hft skiiming....REALLY healthy indeed.
Buy and hold you stupid pension funds. Wall street is the best at sniffing out buried treasure and replacing it with shiny plastic crap.
they really have things nailed down? come on fonzannoon!!!...it would take tomorrow for you to see that? there is absolutely no good reason for the dow not to be half of what it is if it werent for zirp and deficit spending to keep the pretend gdp growth so whopping high at 1 percent......equities are the last bastion of the feds wealth effect...without the mighty dow coloring americas tv screens with green, the country would be destroyed.....pension funds destroyed, 401ks destroyed, banks destroyed.......its all ben has left. there is no real employment, there is no housing, there is NOTHING LEFT EXCEPT THE MIGHTY DOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.....................
Yeah I know you are correct...Wow you just painted quite a picture.
Nice. And I owe you money.
glad you remembered......... first i need to know your definition of money....
I can't remember - was it $5 USD?
Remember - I'm honest but poor.
NOTHING LEFT EXCEPT THE MIGHTY DOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.....................
That and sovereign debt paper, which banks are stuffed with (nobody else wants the shit).
The whole world should be half what it is. We should all just default sooner rather than later and let the daffodil bulbs reprice themselves.
Well it will be an interesting day indeed
I'd have to think that the biggest fear for Bernanke is that they announce more QE and we get a spain/greece reaction where its back to selling the news. Could you imagine the fear in the markets if they announce more QE and we get a down day?
But the market is the Fed. Maybe they will scare themselves...
lead n brass, water n soil n seeds, good friends, better neighbors and let it rain with some sunshine mixed in. Big cities, war zones, redneckville will be shangri-la. You shouldn't really bite the hand that feeds you and nothing wrong with monster trucks and John Deere green. Rain makes corn, corn makes whiskey, you know the rest of the story.
Damned if they do, damned if they don't. Probably error on the side of a McTwist.
They need to make a time sheet when to drop dollar and when to rase the dollar.
Let's say at the beginning of the month when us companies negotiate exports drop the dollar, at the middle of the month when consumers with their 70% of gdp trying to help the economy - rase the dollar. At the end of the month let the muppets be corzined.
Pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds (private pension kind of)....all are stranded in the stock and bond markets. The Fed will do what it has to do to keep this sick mockery of a capital market propped up - and will sit by and watch the financial industry skim like any good parasite.
There is no other option left now, other than real war (not the phoney wars of post WW2 era).
LOL, Wall Street is forcing Bernanke and the fed's hand. Bernanke is very much influenced by politics as well given Obama's up for election.
Did ZH refused Ben's registration? Just wondering.
Two days ago every so called " analyst", was bitching because more "pump & dump" won't accomplish anything. Now the same "pump & dump", asshats are talking P/E ratios again! I can't stop laughing!
The rumor has been purchased, and the usd$ driven into the dirt! The G-20 was a joke, and NOTHING has changed! I'll be selling the fact. I can read over bought "oscillators".
P.S. someone shove a Loafer up Cramers ass!
Tomorrow you will be a braggin' how you bought the head fake.
( I'm flat deflator ). I sure see the r/r to the downside though. CFD's for Asia
This ETF chart is for you deflater.
It will be fun to watch those charts at about 2:20ET tomorrow.
Greed is at it peak.
Wow, 750 points off the lows already and only 500 points off the highs.
XRT only 4 points away from making world record highs again.
Where's the recession?
Check out the acceleration up in the NYSE Summation Index.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/McSumNYSE.html
the recession is hiding behind the wall of 1.3+ trillion dollars of deficit spending..... lets wonder what the gdp would be without it?.....-3, -5 percent growth perhaps?...............................does dr. ben need a prescription for handing out growth hormones?????
I don't know where the recession is residing these days, but I am pretty sure the depression is hunkered down within the confines of my house's walls.
People like RT would sell out their country to make a buck. Hell, they'd sell their daughters to make a buck.
My daughter? Never! My wife? Totally depends on the price. If I could get a nice down payment on a new car -and if my wife could get something out of it also -I think we could have a deal. Anyone interested? If so, I'll send you some pics.
as the computer told us long ago
The only winning move is not to play.
FINALLY-maybe-hopefully-a market shock!
Bernacke should be my AA sponsor. Fell off the wagon a bit there during these HFT-driven doldrums.
What's the problem? We could be at DOW 10k in a week and have chewy3 announced next friday.
Has anyone bothered to think about how fucked we are? This whole planet is going apeshit.
What makes QE3 unlikely is that M2 MONEY VELOCITY IS THE LOWEST SINCE THE 1957-1958 RECESSION and IKE!!!! Monetary policy is not longer effective.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/19/wake-of-the-flood-investors-anticipate-central-bank-intervention-flooding-get-a-life-jacket/
Markets do have a way of making things difficult for central planners, don't they?
Still using old tools for new problems I see.
Does anyone else see a paradox here?
Assuming the equity market really is under the Fed's control - being that a 30% drop requires a 43% ramp to break even and the fact that it has seen a trend of diminishing returns on its operations, I don't think Chairsatan would let that happen.
By Frontrunning QE, Did The Market Make QE Impossible?
Hell no. S&P going to new highs and beyond on this mother hunching version. We've seen de light and delighted we were.
Great post. At the very least Bernanke will have to get new excuses. S&P is up 9% and we're not even half done with the year, hard to say that the stock market is holding anything back when you got an above average year ALREADY. Housing has picked up, mortgage rates at all time lows, commodity prices off their highs with nat gas near record lows, record corporate profits. Sure doesn't sound like the end of the world.
Firing the QE gun now leaving fewer bullets for a real problem would seem a fool's game. But, hey, the FRB has some fools, and they are on balance money printers, it's all they know.
Looks like somebody has confused manipulated markets and public numbers with the real economy.
That is the point. The Fed is basing all of their decisions on manipulated numbers. Stock prices, bond prices, inflation stats, the housing market, are all as manipulated as they've ever been. If you've manipulated the numbers to look good, how do you justify more invervention when they appear good? That is the point of Tyler's post.
Firing the QE gun now leaving fewer bullets for a real problem would seem a fool's game.
What do you mean, "fewer bullets"? Does, "a real problem" not imply "more bullets" since real problems usually means a stronger dollar as a result of "flight to safety"?
The Bernanks primary objective of financing the unfinanceable is harder with a strong dollar.