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Full Bernanke Speech: Nothing Now, But Wait For Sept 20 FOMC Meeting Which Has Been Extended To "Allow Fuller Discussion Of Tools"
Bottom line: nothing now, QE3 now expected to be delivered Sept. 20? or not...
- BERNANKE SAYS FED HAS LIMITED ABILITY TO ENSURE LONG-RUN GROWTH
- BERNANKE DOESN'T SIGNAL NEW STEPS FOR PROMOTING U.S. GROWTH
- BERNANKE SAYS EXTRA DAY TO ALLOW `FULLER DISCUSSION' OF TOOLS
- BERNANKE SAYS FED TO EXTEND SEPT. FOMC MEETING TO TWO DAYS
- BERNANKE SAYS FED HAS `RANGE OF TOOLS' FOR STIMULATING GROWTH
- BERNANKE SAYS `FINANCIAL STRESS' WILL BE A `DRAG' ON RECOVERY
Readers can listen to real time market commentary courtesy of RanSquawk at the following link
August 26, 2011
The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy
Good morning. As always, thanks are due to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for organizing this conference. This year's topic, long-term economic growth, is indeed pertinent--as has so often been the case at this symposium in past years. In particular, the financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery have caused some to question whether the United States, notwithstanding its long-term record of vigorous economic growth, might not now be facing a prolonged period of stagnation, regardless of its public policy choices. Might not the very slow pace of economic expansion of the past few years, not only in the United States but also in a number of other advanced economies, morph into something far more long-lasting?
I can certainly appreciate these concerns and am fully aware of the challenges that we face in restoring economic and financial conditions conducive to healthy growth, some of which I will comment on today. With respect to longer-run prospects, however, my own view is more optimistic. As I will discuss, although important problems certainly exist, the growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years. It may take some time, but we can reasonably expect to see a return to growth rates and employment levels consistent with those underlying fundamentals. In the interim, however, the challenges for U.S. economic policymakers are twofold: first, to help our economy further recover from the crisis and the ensuing recession, and second, to do so in a way that will allow the economy to realize its longer-term growth potential. Economic policies should be evaluated in light of both of those objectives.
This morning I will offer some thoughts on why the pace of recovery in the United States has, for the most part, proved disappointing thus far, and I will discuss the Federal Reserve's policy response. I will then turn briefly to the longer-term prospects of our economy and the need for our country's economic policies to be effective from both a shorter-term and longer-term perspective.
Near-Term Prospects for the Economy and Policy
In discussing the prospects for the economy and for policy in the near term, it bears recalling briefly how we got here. The financial crisis that gripped global markets in 2008 and 2009 was more severe than any since the Great Depression. Economic policymakers around the world saw the mounting risks of a global financial meltdown in the fall of 2008 and understood the extraordinarily dire economic consequences that such an event could have. As I have described in previous remarks at this forum, governments and central banks worked forcefully and in close coordination to avert the looming collapse. The actions to stabilize the financial system were accompanied, both in the United States and abroad, by substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus. But notwithstanding these strong and concerted efforts, severe damage to the global economy could not be avoided. The freezing of credit, the sharp drops in asset prices, dysfunction in financial markets, and the resulting blows to confidence sent global production and trade into free fall in late 2008 and early 2009.
We meet here today almost exactly three years since the beginning of the most intense phase of the financial crisis and a bit more than two years since the National Bureau of Economic Research's date for the start of the economic recovery. Where do we stand?
There have been some positive developments over the past few years, particularly when considered in the light of economic prospects as viewed at the depth of the crisis. Overall, the global economy has seen significant growth, led by the emerging-market economies. In the United States, a cyclical recovery, though a modest one by historical standards, is in its ninth quarter. In the financial sphere, the U.S. banking system is generally much healthier now, with banks holding substantially more capital. Credit availability from banks has improved, though it remains tight in categories--such as small business lending--in which the balance sheets of potential borrowers remain impaired. Companies with access to the public bond markets have had no difficulty obtaining credit on favorable terms. Importantly, structural reform is moving forward in the financial sector, with ambitious domestic and international efforts underway to enhance the capital and liquidity of banks, especially the most systemically important banks; to improve risk management and transparency; to strengthen market infrastructure; and to introduce a more systemic, or macroprudential, approach to financial regulation and supervision.
In the broader economy, manufacturing production in the United States has risen nearly 15 percent since its trough, driven substantially by growth in exports. Indeed, the U.S. trade deficit has been notably lower recently than it was before the crisis, reflecting in part the improved competitiveness of U.S. goods and services. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, and productivity gains in some industries have been impressive, though new data have reduced estimates of overall productivity improvement in recent years. Households also have made some progress in repairing their balance sheets--saving more, borrowing less, and reducing their burdens of interest payments and debt. Commodity prices have come off their highs, which will reduce the cost pressures facing businesses and help increase household purchasing power.
Notwithstanding these more positive developments, however, it is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped. From the latest comprehensive revisions to the national accounts as well as the most recent estimates of growth in the first half of this year, we have learned that the recession was even deeper and the recovery even weaker than we had thought; indeed, aggregate output in the United States still has not returned to the level that it attained before the crisis. Importantly, economic growth has for the most part been at rates insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment, which has recently been fluctuating a bit above 9 percent. Temporary factors, including the effects of the run-up in commodity prices on consumer and business budgets and the effect of the Japanese disaster on global supply chains and production, were part of the reason for the weak performance of the economy in the first half of 2011; accordingly, growth in the second half looks likely to improve as their influence recedes. However, the incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factors also have been at work.
Why has the recovery from the crisis been so slow and erratic? Historically, recessions have typically sowed the seeds of their own recoveries as reduced spending on investment, housing, and consumer durables generates pent-up demand. As the business cycle bottoms out and confidence returns, this pent-up demand, often augmented by the effects of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, is met through increased production and hiring. Increased production in turn boosts business revenues and household incomes and provides further impetus to business and household spending. Improving income prospects and balance sheets also make households and businesses more creditworthy, and financial institutions become more willing to lend. Normally, these developments create a virtuous circle of rising incomes and profits, more supportive financial and credit conditions, and lower uncertainty, allowing the process of recovery to develop momentum.
These restorative forces are at work today, and they will continue to promote recovery over time. Unfortunately, the recession, besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis. These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process.
Notably, the housing sector has been a significant driver of recovery from most recessions in the United States since World War II, but this time--with an overhang of distressed and foreclosed properties, tight credit conditions for builders and potential homebuyers, and ongoing concerns by both potential borrowers and lenders about continued house price declines--the rate of new home construction has remained at less than one-third of its pre-crisis level. The low level of construction has implications not only for builders but for providers of a wide range of goods and services related to housing and homebuilding. Moreover, even as tight credit for some borrowers has been one of the factors restraining housing recovery, the weakness of the housing sector has in turn had adverse effects on financial markets and on the flow of credit. For example, the sharp declines in house prices in some areas have left many homeowners "underwater" on their mortgages, creating financial hardship for households and, through their effects on rates of mortgage delinquency and default, stress for financial institutions as well. Financial pressures on financial institutions and households have contributed, in turn, to greater caution in the extension of credit and to slower growth in consumer spending.
I have already noted the central role of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 in sparking the recession. As I also noted, a great deal has been done and is being done to address the causes and effects of the crisis, including a substantial program of financial reform, and conditions in the U.S. banking system and financial markets have improved significantly overall. Nevertheless, financial stress has been and continues to be a significant drag on the recovery, both here and abroad. Bouts of sharp volatility and risk aversion in markets have recently re-emerged in reaction to concerns about both European sovereign debts and developments related to the U.S. fiscal situation, including the recent downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating by one of the major rating agencies and the controversy concerning the raising of the U.S. federal debt ceiling. It is difficult to judge by how much these developments have affected economic activity thus far, but there seems little doubt that they have hurt household and business confidence and that they pose ongoing risks to growth. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor developments in financial markets and institutions closely and is in frequent contact with policymakers in Europe and elsewhere.
Monetary policy must be responsive to changes in the economy and, in particular, to the outlook for growth and inflation. As I mentioned earlier, the recent data have indicated that economic growth during the first half of this year was considerably slower than the Federal Open Market Committee had been expecting, and that temporary factors can account for only a portion of the economic weakness that we have observed. Consequently, although we expect a moderate recovery to continue and indeed to strengthen over time, the Committee has marked down its outlook for the likely pace of growth over coming quarters. With commodity prices and other import prices moderating and with longer-term inflation expectations remaining stable, we expect inflation to settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below the rate of 2 percent, or a bit less, that most Committee participants view as being consistent with our dual mandate.
In light of its current outlook, the Committee recently decided to provide more specific forward guidance about its expectations for the future path of the federal funds rate. In particular, in the statement following our meeting earlier this month, we indicated that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. That is, in what the Committee judges to be the most likely scenarios for resource utilization and inflation in the medium term, the target for the federal funds rate would be held at its current low levels for at least two more years.
In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at our August meeting. We will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues, including of course economic and financial developments, at our meeting in September, which has been scheduled for two days (the 20th and the 21st) instead of one to allow a fuller discussion. The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
Economic Policy and Longer-Term Growth in the United States
The financial crisis and its aftermath have posed severe challenges around the globe, particularly in the advanced industrial economies. Thus far I have reviewed some of those challenges, offered some diagnoses for the slow economic recovery in the United States, and briefly discussed the policy response by the Federal Reserve. However, this conference is focused on longer-run economic growth, and appropriately so, given the fundamental importance of long-term growth rates in the determination of living standards. In that spirit, let me turn now to a brief discussion of the longer-run prospects for the U.S. economy and the role of economic policy in shaping those prospects.
Notwithstanding the severe difficulties we currently face, I do not expect the long-run growth potential of the U.S. economy to be materially affected by the crisis and the recession if--and I stress if--our country takes the necessary steps to secure that outcome. Over the medium term, housing activity will stabilize and begin to grow again, if for no other reason than that ongoing population growth and household formation will ultimately demand it. Good, proactive housing policies could help speed that process. Financial markets and institutions have already made considerable progress toward normalization, and I anticipate that the financial sector will continue to adapt to ongoing reforms while still performing its vital intermediation functions. Households will continue to strengthen their balance sheets, a process that will be sped up considerably if the recovery accelerates but that will move forward in any case. Businesses will continue to invest in new capital, adopt new technologies, and build on the productivity gains of the past several years. I have confidence that our European colleagues fully appreciate what is at stake in the difficult issues they are now confronting and that, over time, they will take all necessary and appropriate steps to address those issues effectively and comprehensively.
This economic healing will take a while, and there may be setbacks along the way. Moreover, we will need to remain alert to risks to the recovery, including financial risks. However, with one possible exception on which I will elaborate in a moment, the healing process should not leave major scars. Notwithstanding the trauma of the crisis and the recession, the U.S. economy remains the largest in the world, with a highly diverse mix of industries and a degree of international competitiveness that, if anything, has improved in recent years. Our economy retains its traditional advantages of a strong market orientation, a robust entrepreneurial culture, and flexible capital and labor markets. And our country remains a technological leader, with many of the world's leading research universities and the highest spending on research and development of any nation.
Of course, the United States faces many growth challenges. Our population is aging, like those of many other advanced economies, and our society will have to adapt over time to an older workforce. Our K-12 educational system, despite considerable strengths, poorly serves a substantial portion of our population. The costs of health care in the United States are the highest in the world, without fully commensurate results in terms of health outcomes. But all of these long-term issues were well known before the crisis; efforts to address these problems have been ongoing, and these efforts will continue and, I hope, intensify.
The quality of economic policymaking in the United States will heavily influence the nation's longer-term prospects. To allow the economy to grow at its full potential, policymakers must work to promote macroeconomic and financial stability; adopt effective tax, trade, and regulatory policies; foster the development of a skilled workforce; encourage productive investment, both private and public; and provide appropriate support for research and development and for the adoption of new technologies.
The Federal Reserve has a role in promoting the longer-term performance of the economy. Most importantly, monetary policy that ensures that inflation remains low and stable over time contributes to long-run macroeconomic and financial stability. Low and stable inflation improves the functioning of markets, making them more effective at allocating resources; and it allows households and businesses to plan for the future without having to be unduly concerned with unpredictable movements in the general level of prices. The Federal Reserve also fosters macroeconomic and financial stability in its role as a financial regulator, a monitor of overall financial stability, and a liquidity provider of last resort.
Normally, monetary or fiscal policies aimed primarily at promoting a faster pace of economic recovery in the near term would not be expected to significantly affect the longer-term performance of the economy. However, current circumstances may be an exception to that standard view--the exception to which I alluded earlier. Our economy is suffering today from an extraordinarily high level of long-term unemployment, with nearly half of the unemployed having been out of work for more than six months. Under these unusual circumstances, policies that promote a stronger recovery in the near term may serve longer-term objectives as well. In the short term, putting people back to work reduces the hardships inflicted by difficult economic times and helps ensure that our economy is producing at its full potential rather than leaving productive resources fallow. In the longer term, minimizing the duration of unemployment supports a healthy economy by avoiding some of the erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force that is often associated with long-term unemployment.
Notwithstanding this observation, which adds urgency to the need to achieve a cyclical recovery in employment, most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank. We have heard a great deal lately about federal fiscal policy in the United States, so I will close with some thoughts on that topic, focusing on the role of fiscal policy in promoting stability and growth.
To achieve economic and financial stability, U.S. fiscal policy must be placed on a sustainable path that ensures that debt relative to national income is at least stable or, preferably, declining over time. As I have emphasized on previous occasions, without significant policy changes, the finances of the federal government will inevitably spiral out of control, risking severe economic and financial damage.1 The increasing fiscal burden that will be associated with the aging of the population and the ongoing rise in the costs of health care make prompt and decisive action in this area all the more critical.
Although the issue of fiscal sustainability must urgently be addressed, fiscal policymakers should not, as a consequence, disregard the fragility of the current economic recovery. Fortunately, the two goals of achieving fiscal sustainability--which is the result of responsible policies set in place for the longer term--and avoiding the creation of fiscal headwinds for the current recovery are not incompatible. Acting now to put in place a credible plan for reducing future deficits over the longer term, while being attentive to the implications of fiscal choices for the recovery in the near term, can help serve both objectives.
Fiscal policymakers can also promote stronger economic performance through the design of tax policies and spending programs. To the fullest extent possible, our nation's tax and spending policies should increase incentives to work and to save, encourage investments in the skills of our workforce, stimulate private capital formation, promote research and development, and provide necessary public infrastructure. We cannot expect our economy to grow its way out of our fiscal imbalances, but a more productive economy will ease the tradeoffs that we face.
Finally, and perhaps most challenging, the country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions. The negotiations that took place over the summer disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well, and similar events in the future could, over time, seriously jeopardize the willingness of investors around the world to hold U.S. financial assets or to make direct investments in job-creating U.S. businesses. Although details would have to be negotiated, fiscal policymakers could consider developing a more effective process that sets clear and transparent budget goals, together with budget mechanisms to establish the credibility of those goals. Of course, formal budget goals and mechanisms do not replace the need for fiscal policymakers to make the difficult choices that are needed to put the country's fiscal house in order, which means that public understanding of and support for the goals of fiscal policy are crucial.
Economic policymakers face a range of difficult decisions, relating to both the short-run and long-run challenges we face. I have no doubt, however, that those challenges can be met, and that the fundamental strengths of our economy will ultimately reassert themselves. The Federal Reserve will certainly do all that it can to help restore high rates of growth and employment in a context of price stability.
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I got these cheeseburgers man...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S01g4SwPpcM&feature=related
Hey guys, he didn't say there wasn't going to be QE3. He said not yet. Let's see what happens at the Sept. 20th meeting...
"fuller discussion of tools"
So they will spend the whole meeting discussing Greenspan and the Bernank?
With a sub-session to discuss Lloyd, Jamie, and Brian.
Sounds like Bernank is going to clear the way for Obumble to announce his housing stimulus proposal (i.e. allowing those with mortgages held by Fannie and Freddie to refinance at lower rates). Sounds like Bernank didn't want to steal Obumble's thunder right now.
100% FUBAR.
September 5th folks, Dumbama will "deliver"! Until then SELL SELL SELL!!!
I thought the Fed was above politics?
Sorry Joe, but history tells us Sept 5 will be even more disappointing that todays Hole announcement
More time to permit a further discussion of tools? More like a further discussion amongst tools. And like they didn't see this coming and would have discussed it in earlier meetings.
Revised Bernanke speech:
If the hurricane turns the Fed building into a snorkeling attraction, then we might consider QE3
Nice comback for gold: without an economy what's your fiat worth? Without at job how do you pay your debt? Without jobs, who pays taxes? Without taxes where's the money for government to spend and pay its debt?
I think this prves just about anyone can be a Fed Chairman. I mean really look at that speech. Ramble, ramble, future prospects of US growth are very good, rabble rabble.
Was there anything other than complete BS in that speech.We at the Fed have many options to stimulate the market. One invloves me shooting myself in the head, I could swan doe off the Empire State, could drowns myself in the East River, or allow every American to whack me on the head for $5 each.
I could swan doe off the Empire State
Nah. Go to San Francisco and do it off the Golden Gate bridge -- the aesthetics are beyond compare and the symbolism is perfect!
No, don't; some people have to use that bridge, damnit.
C'mon Snowball, it's a multi-use public facility.
Gosh darn it, I misplaced my magic wand. Can you folks wait until our September meeting? Thanks. Bennie
Not surprisingly equities aren't making that big of a deal out of it yet. -16 on the S&P... for now.
CNBS of course trying to spin it to the upside. Wouldn't be surprised to see it ramp higher into the green, of course it's a little early and we might not have seen the true reaction yet.
Bernanke states near the end of the speech why the Fed will do something by year end
Normally, monetary or fiscal policies aimed primarily at promoting a faster pace of economic recovery in the near term would not be expected to significantly affect the longer-term performance of the economy. However, current circumstances may be an exception to that standard view--the exception to which I alluded earlier. Our economy is suffering today from an extraordinarily high level of long-term unemployment, with nearly half of the unemployed having been out of work for more than six months. Under these unusual circumstances, policies that promote a stronger recovery in the near term may serve longer-term objectives as well. In the short term, putting people back to work reduces the hardships inflicted by difficult economic times and helps ensure that our economy is producing at its full potential rather than leaving productive resources fallow. In the longer term, minimizing the duration of unemployment supports a healthy economy by avoiding some of the erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force that is often associated with long-term unemployment.
The short trade on S&P has hit target 1140. New trades put up now:
http://capital3x.com/?p=308
Earlier premium trade on Gold, S&P, EUR/USD etc are to be found:
http://capital3x.com/?p=289
the pig bankstas will have to wait until september for their QE3 slop.
Commondities haven't dropped enough. Markets haven't reached enough pain. Let's see what Sept 20 brings.
Back over 11,000....here comes the rally!!
By the way, if anyone hears Palin say, "Gosh Darn it" - you have my permission to severely skull fuck her...
SHort EUR/USD from today premium also hitting targets!
Well, The Ghadaffi Duck Show has the best chance of being the story of the week.
Ben has punted....now the worry shifts to what fresh hell the President will unleash as his new jobs initiatives.
Ben has punted....now the worry shifts to what fresh hell the President will unleash as his new jobs initiatives.
-BERNANKE SAYS "I HAVE BEEN PUT ON A VERY SHORT LEASH BY THE PRESIDENT UNTIL HIS TELEPROMPTER HAS FIGURED OUT HOW TO SPIN HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT AS A GOOD THING".
As country are we seriously going to have to sit around for another month waiting for an institution which cannot help us to announce a new program that will not help us ? We need leadership, right now.
make'em beg for QE3... smart move
Impossible is nothing!
The Apple pair trade from Aug 25 is working like a charm.
http://capital3x.com/?p=234
Here is that chatrt on Apple from premium piece
http://capital3x.com/?p=243
U Mich Survey Slides Further
printed 55.7 on consensus of 56...woohoo rally on!
Have no fear - the PPT is obviously awake and hard at work turning Mr. Market's frown upside down.
Bernank: We blew our wad,we are rolling over and going to sleep,no cuddling for you.
Just take a look at these Bernank points:
I think we'll change his name to "The Riddler". Perhaps BatMan can give him an ass whooping in his next film??
NATIONALIZE THE FED!
Nationalize the Nation
why din't he just post this online and save the country some money, hopefully they all choke on a t-bon(er).
the bernank is evil.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqlhLOMGpbA
Don't know why Natural Gas didn't move on such a non event?
crude looks vulnerable here.
bonds MIGHT be dipping down, where is the money going to go?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COPlJwqaQm8
while notes of bernank speech were being released was listening to king / rickards 08/23/11 interview: he nailed it.
Nothing had been priced in already.
I am surprised that the market expected something concrete from Berskanke.
It is clear to anyone who watches him that he would not announce another qe3.
Look for leaks and statements on interest rate caps with a position solidifying by September FOMC.
Qe3 when or if it occurs will be more subtle than qe2 without explicit purchase targets.
I only lost about eight percent on EWZ. Sold at 60.63. Fuck it. It is probably not time yet for stocks.
After a sharp dip, gold comes back to make a new high 1800.0 after the Bernank speaks.
But but it's a commodity, why don't they understand? Chorus: TRADITION!!
Ben Shalom Berskanke must wring the excess out of gold before any market support or money printing can be announced.
Flash!
Bernank:
"we're gonna let the can kick the can down the road"
"see you in September"
Roll over BAC. You ain't gettin' no help yet. Good luck making it to the end of September.
BERNANKE SAYS: BEARS BETTER COVER TODAY BECAUSE I HAVE INSTRUCTED ALL MSM TO SPIN THIS SPEECH POSITIVE.
BERNANKE SAYS: PPT AND BRIAN SACK WILL RALLY THE MARKET NOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW YOU HOW POWERFUL MY TOOLS ARE
No new stimiulus.....stocks rally? I'm confused
short squeeze-apotomus. patience, leafhopper. even dead kitties are subject to the laws of gravity.
OH, I am going to start a new thing- - -The Quatrains of Nostrananke
THE QUATRAINS OF NOSTRANANKE
Century I
1. His wand in his hand, he tries the podcast,
Buts adds liquidity which trickles down the Hole of Jackson.
Blue Skies cast shadows over Grizzlies.
Fear Death by Water.
(This way, anybody can make the drivel mean whatever they want, with class and sophistication.)
Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter
LOL! Nostrananke !!!
shoutout to squeeky from slewie: yo! ++++
Perfect execution of another fraud on the American public. The big banks and thier insiders are out of the market, he will allow it to collapse so they can enter at a lower level then all of a sudden QE3 will arrive and all his ganster buddies will make billions.
Since Bennie is trapped, he lies: he'll say one thing and do another. The spice will flow.
Really old movie ref: Only people on non-paying pension get the reference!
For the time being, the Guild Navigators are in control.
The head of the Fed is a Benny-Jesserit
Ron Paul Muad'dib? ;)
Really, really old book reference...and only a complete ignoramus doesn't get it.
In America we Thrust! Said the Bwanker with a hair-lip!
Seems to be popular, dollar's up, markets going down like a Bachman-Perry combo, risk shot to hell..
This is bullish -- right??
Bernank finished, now 'range of tools' means 'kick it a month to again say nothing'.
nothing to see here folks, move along
Watch the vix, not price.. Bull mkt in Fear..Vix is going t double at least.
Interesting - will check!
Bernanke is lying. He is using FX swaps to keep the price of the dollar low. He is directly bidding on Treasuries to keep his ZIRP. The dude is just lying because Republicans have him in their crosshairs.
Yep.
Mealy-mouthed nothingness. Vacuous. Void.
You forgot F.A.R.T.
Forever American Retards: Transgress!
Forever Ask Repeat Threat?
For-now Any Reportable Terminology?
For Arabs Reliable Trading?
For American - Resouces Taxed!
For-Any (other) Resources Twat!
I recall the days when I loved to FART! By-gone or what!
My rectal hamony has been destroyed!
Phut, phut and part phut - with lumps!
The Great Oz has spoken. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain....the...Great...er...Oz has spoken.
The monetary fire hose will be directed to European wanking, er banking.
First things first.
"See You In September"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRGLjzFHa40
WOW, USDCHF is f* flying, same as USDJPY
Risk is on, Bitchez!
My neighbor's son asks me what's "QE", I told him "K(Q)ill the fucking i(E)diot".
ALL ZH'ers -- VOTE ASAP:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44275832 ---------------------------------------- "Do you have confidence Bernanke can keep the economy growing?" Results at link. Vote is on-going. Consistently 3-to-1 against Bernanke as vote comes in.Hmmm, no QE3 (for now), no declaration of hyperinflation, markets are open, my dollars are still good for purchases . . . . this is so depressing.
The old ploy of buying time....
Just you wait and see, maybe we will have answers or maybe not...
Only machines trading now.......
and just as the rally was fading and the nasdaq was on the verge of going red again, the headline "august consumer sentiment revised higher" pops up...just in the nick of time...
rally (back) on...
Thoughts:
1) Bernanke will wait to announce so the QE3 will last through the election
2) Bernanke only has one bullet left, has no other tools, and you know what they say to do with the last bullet
3) The 'fiscal mess' by politicians is necessary, the ones who lost the election need to acknowledge that "elections have consequences"
4) Cutting massive spending deficits in a "fragile" economy is not a bad thing, overspending will only make the economic medicine harder to take
duct tape: the newest fed tool
Now that was funny..duct tape...hee hee.
Translation: For God's sake let's push this to the weekend where the media can focus on the hurricane and not our impotence on dealing with this financial situation.
It's not about the media it's about waiting to see if they use a natural disaster as an excuse to "stimulate" more with their "tools" that they have many of.
Something like:
"In lieu of the devastation left in the wake of Irene the Fed has decided to allow for further stimulus of $666 billion dollars. Although only BAC, JPM and GS were the only entities that actually took damage from the tropical depression, they were depressed just enough for us to be sad for them and we must act."
I'm buying stocks in ink and paper.
Yes not announcing QE3 today will make it seem like it is an option in the future because they didn't use it now.
Stimulate your tool is what The Bernank said...and go shopping!
Is there some news behind this 30 point, 30 minute SP rally, or is it just the PPT painting the tape as a possible serious collapse was developing?
Confusing rally.
"Confusing rally" ? I agree, hackettlad.
That tends to happen when the FED is buying the indexes to support key technical levels.
In discussing the prospects for the economy and for policy in the near term, it bears...
huhu huhuhu... he said, bears.
Here's the update I just posted to my trading blog: The speech has turned out to be more upbeat for bulls than I expected. Without really acknowledging the severity of the economic downturn underway since late July, Bernanke strongly suggested that he is pushing for some kind of additional policy action at the FOMC’s September meeting. The key paragraph from his speech is here: “In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at our August meeting. We will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues, including of course economic and financial developments, at our meeting in September, which has been scheduled for two days (the 20th and the 21st) instead of one to allow a fuller discussion.” As I expected, Bernanke is keeping his cards very close to his chest about what policy he is pushing for. He essentially acknowledges that there is strong disagreement within the FOMC about policy and implies that he wants to at least give the FOMC a chance to reach a greater consensus than it did in August, when three FOMC members dissented and spoke out against Bernanke’s move to extend the timeline of zero interest rates. Ben left markets guessing what exactly he is pushing for and whether he might be willing to compromise on less for the sake of consensus. But above all, with the paragraph above, Bernanke has fed bulls hopes that QE is coming. As a result, my market call has not really been validated … yet. My puts are currently trading with a wide spread of 32 to 36 cents, compared to the 30 cents where I bought the last of them, due mainly to events in Europe. The downward revision of Q2 GDP to 1% also mattered. But the Michigan consumer confidence number, which dropped to a definitively recessionary level, was brushed off as an “as expected”. If you took profits in the first minutes after Ben’s speech, when markets sold off before they noticed the paragraph I cited, you should have done pretty well. I’m holding on, as I expect the Greece crisis in Europe to deteriorate, and I expect the economic data that will come out in early September, starting with the PMIs, to be downright awful.
http://how-to-trade-armageddon.com/
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Tools?
http://recessionreadyamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/printing-pre...
http://usawatchdog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/crash_dees.jpg
Word Map - http://www.wordle.net/show/wrdl/3963515/Bernanke_Speach_8-26-2011
<--- QE3 is here in form of ZIRP 4ever
<--- Bernank will expand asset purchases in Sept
Keeping Fed Funds at zero is not the same as QE, and no amount of revisionist redefinition of “QE” will change that.
The fact is that you, personally, have also been wrong along with almost everyone else on this silly forum, in saying there will be endless QE.
You would hope just one person could be man enough to admit it. Apparently not.
Hey troll, show me where I said there would be endless QE.
Here's a post of mine from 75 days ago on the subject -
TruthInSunshine
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/when-you-own-gold-youre-fighting-every-...
by TruthInSunshine
on Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:18
#1371339
Rickards still hasn't told his readers how he arrived at his figures on how much repurchasing of tnotes the Fed can handle assuming a windup of official QE operation is going to happen, or, in other words, how much 'bang' the "maturing assets" on the Fed's existing balance sheet will be able to purchase going forward.
As for gold, he is correct conceptually, but if the situation became so dire that more than 2% of people were openly transacting commerce for everyday goods and services in precious metals, including gold, the government would make doing so a felony; whether such measures would deter such activity, I leave for the individual to use his or her best assessment.
Back to the "rollover of maturing assets on the Fed's balance sheet" issue that Rickards speaks of, and which he claims will allow the Fed to continue significant 'stealth' QE operations, here is what I wrote months ago in response to this claim (which Zero Hedge backed my argument up - The Fed Does Not Need QE3 And Can Fund Debt Monetization Merely From Rolling Debt And MBS Prepayments? Wrong ):
Rickards predicted this.
Here is my question for Jim Rickards and anyone else who claims that by rolling over income on existing assets that they own (MBS and Tnotes), the Fed can do large scale purchases of additional Tnotes for very long -
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-complete-830-million-7-day-reverse-...
Hot damn ES is ramping. Would really like to see it fall apart by the close...
All in all... this move on the short term is supportive of the USD, inline with a possible Twist operation ane therefore not good for paper gold or silver.
Natural Gas is immume to all this. My prefered commodity above everything else, Long Or Short.
Sea turtle found dead....
http://news.yahoo.com/sea-turtle-had-global-following-found-dead-1549418...
And in other breaking news....
Actress Melissa Gilbert files for divorce in LAhttp://news.yahoo.com/actress-melissa-gilbert-files-divorce-la-001257934...
Octavian Ceasar was popular becaus ehe knew what to feed The People.
Ben has to be very happy with the market reaction. He didn't do a thing and gets a great rally.
Anybody else noticing a fractal pattern developing in the market post speech? A hughe jump up and then a small selloff followed by another huge jump and another small selloff all about the same percentage and at equal time intervals.
Maybe all the crazy HFT stuff this past week were tests for today and a major PPT program was unleased on the amrket as soon as it nosedived. Something out of th eordinary must be going on.
Yeah, ADR, I think something weird is going on.
I think that the FED is buying the indexes to prop up the market above key technical levels.
That chart makes sense to me, if the FED is buying.
Oh, really? perhaps you can apply this new found knowledge to tell me where the S&P will be over the next few hours, seeing as how is so bleeding obvious?
I have no idea where the market is going. Never suggested I did. That's why I been accumulating a positition in PM's over the last several years. I'm confident where they are going.
I'm sure, in my mind, that the FED will do everything it can to keep the game going...and propping up the indexes is well within their disposition.
It's my opinion, that's all. Feel free to disagree and explain your position. I'm always willing to learn from other perspectives.
He gets it- 'our country' is fucked. 'And I stress if'; emphasis The Bernank
1. Print money to raise inflation
2. Cause inflation via higher commodity and energy prices, thus slowing economy
3. Deny printing money caused inflation and slowed economy
4. Print money again because economy slowed.
5. Star in upcoming book, "When Genius Failed, Part II"
Here, I'll write a line for them..."What Bernanke, Rogoff, Krugman and our other fellow geniuses failed to realize was that labor markets were global and U.S. wages didn't rise with inflation, but lagged tremendously as more jobs shifted offshore, pressuring consumers and slowing the economy with each run of the printing press. Though their ivory tower books told them it would work if they just printed enough, sadly real world economics ruined their chances at another Nobel Prize."
honestly, months and months of clueless, self-assured assertions from the idiocracy on ZH, that there will be "QE3, QE4, etc..." and not a single person above can say 'yep, got that one wrong'. incredibly, now the editorial at the top of this thread is clutching at straws by concluding that the extension of Sep to a 2 day meeting (like half of them are anyway), is some signal that QE3 will be announced then.
and they cant even get the quote right. this is what the text says:
it does NOT say that the meeting is extended for more time to consider the "tools" as suggested in the leader to this thread. commiserations to all that reality doesnt mesh with collected bigotry. typical.
Al, did you have an opportunity to read what Goldman just said about QE3?
Seems as thought they believe that another Quantative easing is coming, too.
Holy Sheep Shit!!! That... woman? Sweet Jesus Christ,... she must have too much money to buy a mug like that. Jeez,... can you imagine what an ass you'd feel like if you inflicted that damage upon yourself intentionally. But I appreciate the alliteration of Chairsatan Ben's knife upon America. Our job is to shove the knife up his ass and do some surgery. Welcome to the New American Revolution.
Mkts are totally distorted, they don.t know where to go.
But a nice short entry this am. The euro is holding back the declines, incredible the amt spent keeping it afloat all be it temporary.
thxz for the print-out of the whole whateverthefukitis
as one of the arch-fiends in a ww.criminal.cabal.con the benzelbub will spread the stink of his anal production on everything which doesn't, basically, flee from anything except cash, PMs, and zero counterparty risk, NOT zero interest rates
the demonic chair-holder always fails to mention the lynch-pin of Justice in the US Consitutional cluster-polity of scam, sham and flim-flam, which is understadable, considering the depths of his criminal insanity
i will not stand among you, my fellow americans, and tell you there is but one way, but i will give voice the word that we must seek the best way, together, as if our children's lives depended on on our immediately awakening and savvy understanding of the way to Justice.
i invite all thinking men and women to register to vote, no matter how styooopid you felt last time, how hopeless you feel, or how convinced you have become that your vote doesn't matter
right now, it just might
in the spectrum of truly moronic thought which our national "debates" reveal, there is not one person who will weild the sword of Justice over the criminality which has captured our once-great nation, and which now, We The People do verily and abjectly serve
so, i invite you to please check out ralphy-boy, the naderooski
yes, ralph nader. see if he will speak the word of Justice and lead un on a way from mindless militarism and brain-washed MSM nannyism. or at least the Justice & militarism? hey! 2 out 3 ain't bad
peace
Got this one right: "As for tomorrow, we'll probably see a rise of the indexes whatever the fuck Bernanke says."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-are-wall-streets-expectations-tomorrow-goldman-makes-case-1-trillion-qe3
"As for the article, Sept.20th rings a bell."
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/fed-bombed-market-i-ask-why
Here's another prediction: The S&P and DOW will probably tank 24-48hrs before Sept 20th., then rise after the FOMC announcement.
Yep, another 2 ZH posts which were completely wrong. The latter completely delusional as well.
Another afterthought:
Ben's speech also raised the importance of the minutes of the August 9 FOMC meeting, due out August 30. Given what Ben said about additional stimulus measures having been discussed, markets will be looking very closely at the minutes to see whether QE - in Fed lingo, "Large Scale Asset Purchases" - was specifically discussed. A specific mention of QE in the minutes would further feed bulls' hopes of it coming soon. But even a lack of any such specific mention wouldn't rule out that QE was discussed.
http://how-to-trade-armageddon.com/
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I see you have opted for a more direct approach than I have been lately.
To put things in perspective, please, first read the Bloomberg articles below:
Bloomberg: Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion in Secret Loans.
The Fed's Secret Liquidity Lifelines
Anybody is for the strong dollar from the FED and who's "tool box is empty"?
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2011/08/chairman-ben-s-bernanke-at-federal.html#