Busy day with the usual Thursday fare of Initial claims, as well as Empire Manufcaturing survey, PPI, and the Philly Fed, which will reflect just two things - the reflation in global capital markets courtesy of non-Fed balance sheet expansion, and soaring gas prices courtesy of the same. Average regular is now $3.821, an all time high for this day in history.
8:30 am: Initial jobless claims, Empire manufacturing and the producer price report.
- Initial jobless claims are expected to decline to 357,000 for the week ending March 10, a 5,000 drop from the week prior. The four-week moving average would increase slightly, to 356,000 from 355,000.
- After surging to 19.5 in February, the NY Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to decline modestly, to 17.5.
- Finished goods producer prices should rise 0.4% in February, as January's surprise declines in food and energy producer prices are reversed. A sharp increase in oil prices is the main culprit. Against year-ago levels, finished goods PPI should increase 3.3% - the slowest annual pace since November 2010. Goldman forecasts that the February Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.37% month-over-month, reflecting the recent run-up in energy prices. The muppet master expects a moderate 0.12% (month-over-month) in the core PPI.
10:00 am: March Philly Fed report. After rising for three consecutive months, the Philly Fed index is expected to moderate to +12.0 in March from +10.2 in February. In other words, expect it to print 5-6 standard averages away from the median consensus.