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Futures Indicated Up More Than 1% Pre-Open
And so the market is once again shooting first, and doing the math later. While the EURUSD has since dropped substantially from its afternoon premarket highs and was trading just over 1.33 last check, the ES is now about 15 points higher per the bid/ask stack or at 1173, well over 1% more than Friday's close, even though CONTEXT fair value demonstrates a roughly 15 point arbitrage. Looks like the futures are all alone in this latest attempt to ramp everyone on the wrong side and sell to the greater fool. Fade the massive arbitrage to risk fair value.
Futures are now about 10 points rich to Risk implied fair value.
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Silver rocketing.
an open of +1% seems to set a nice mood for the rest of the week?!
Currency Chg%X=1$USD NY Time x=1$USD x$USD=1 SilverPrice/oz Silver Chg Silver Chg%
US Dollar -- 11/27-18:05 -- -- 31.65 +0.67 up +2.16%
I just saw that... it seems a lot of FRNs have found a nice and low entry point.
Makes you wonder if the JPig smackdown team are asleep of just retards.
EDIT:
US Dollar -- 11/27-18:10 -- -- 31.08 +0.10 up/down +0.32%
Seems like Blythe got an angry call from Dimon and just reported to work.
Heavy pull and tug at the silver pit.
No matter how much everyone wants the world to end--the market will surge upward EURO to 1.40 by next week...
Yeah...it's a sure thing there, short bus.
Markets are up becausing QE3's impending release is being slowly leaked.
Though, Nostradamus says once the Euro goes, America's economy goes with it.
Markets are up becausing QE3's impending release is being slowly leaked.
Though, Nostradamus says once the Euro goes, America's economy goes with it.
Bonus time. Learn the real game there--rookie.
I sold all my Euros - even Warren Buffet does not expect the Euro to survive...
Im pretty sure the USA is fine with EUro death eventually as that keeps Dollar safely in RESERVE STATUS
whole world is going to implode in 2012 (nothing to do with myan bullshit) just coincendence
first Europe then Japan then CHina and then America - likely in that order is my guess
China and Japan export to Europe so when Europe goes this will hurt China and Japan first and then Japan with its huge debt (dbl GDP) the bond run will start on Japan
then China will crash (hard landing) -- all numbers from China are crap and many Americans know high up Chinese already have their families here in America
with all our DEBT buyers America will then finally have no one to borrow from and its economy will crash because nearly half the USA economy is on government debt in some shape or form and GOV spending will be forced to be cut by 25%-35% since they wont be able to borrow much at all
YES I understand we can print and we WILL but it wont matter - ECONOMY runs on FAITH - very simple - and that faith is dwindling and the printing will finish it off - big crash in 2012 or 2013 at the latest.
What does it matter anyhow?!? In a collapse scenario the only outcome is eventual military conflict. As the "common man" no matter where in the world he lives will be forced into unemployment along with millions of others. This isn't 1933, there are over 7 billion people on this planet now. What kind of a world will be left if we really experience a system failure? No hunting and fishing for food, no more wildlife left and mass distribution of food through food lines is bull as no one will be able to afford the gas to get to the food line 10 or 20 miles away. It cannot and will not happen. A systemic failure will be avoided at all cost even if that cost is large scale military conflict.
Soylent Green.
The zombie global economy has us for a ride, TPTB just refuse to acknowledge that inconvenient truth.
I sold all my Euros - even Warren Buffet does not expect the Euro to survive...
Im pretty sure the USA is fine with EUro death eventually as that keeps Dollar safely in RESERVE STATUS
whole world is going to implode in 2012 (nothing to do with myan bullshit) just coincendence
first Europe then Japan then CHina and then America - likely in that order is my guess
China and Japan export to Europe so when Europe goes this will hurt China and Japan first and then Japan with its huge debt (dbl GDP) the bond run will start on Japan
then China will crash (hard landing) -- all numbers from China are crap and many Americans know high up Chinese already have their families here in America
with all our DEBT buyers now gone, America will then finally have no one to borrow from and its economy will crash because nearly half the USA economy is on government aid(spending) in some shape or form and GOV spending will be forced to be cut by 25%-35% since they wont be able to borrow much at all
YES I understand we can print and we WILL but it wont matter - ECONOMY runs on FAITH - very simple - and that faith is dwindling and the printing will finish it off - big crash in 2012 or 2013 at the latest.
Looking at the minute by minute charts shows that silver and gold just woke up in Asia with some severe morning wood. If this lasts more than 4 hours, they need to see the doctor or some shit like that.
I'm about done stacking, so I'm happy to see it go hyperbolic or even exponential. You people waiting on the parabolic are thinking too little of the printing abilities of Central Bankers.
Always hoping "this is it" for silver....then freaking out that this may be it.
copper too for those who live an alernative lifestyle
Hopefully not a wrist rocket.
Wow, who would have guessed they'd take the opportunity to ass fuck the shorts at the open?
OK, what's the fucking 'story' behind the 17 handle open on SPX?
same here: short at 1173 now
I mean, for fuck sake, they just gun the shit out of it 20 handles on absolutely nothing?
Jesus Christ, I expect a minumum ATTEMPT to make it LOOK legit.
Oversold bounce, no volume behind it.
The 5% decline last week was on light volume, too.
and that's all the volume they are getting.
Name a single fool willing to throw a nickle in that other than algo's and hft's?
There's that pesky $100 oil popping up again. We'll see how the masses like them cherries!
http://youtu.be/TpDtrBx38Lo
If Abby Joseph Cohen is bullish, then who amongst you dares be a bear?
Tulip bulbs, bitchez.
They've stopped making them.
I'll take the other side of her trades every day. She is a stupifying bull with a "stellar" record for being wrong. But hey she is an MD at GS. I'd love for someone to compile all of these analyst's forecasts to see how horrible they are at calling the markets.
Well, she missed 2008 but she's been right most of the time.
BUWHAHAHAHAAHA!!!!!!!!
Dude- the chick hasn't made a decent call since 1987- they keep her around for brand-name recognition, and the fact that she talks slow enough for their clients to follow her......
Locked in more physical silver at the Thursday price and see it is ripped up 0.80 in the first 5 minutes.
shopping for important holiday items a day ahead of black friday....nice
If the stock market crashes, it's game over for consumer spending and the economy. Do you think Bernanke will let that happen?
Is it possible that the Fed will "intervene" in a big way and keep filling the kool aid glasses and hopium syringes?
Apparently the rumor is already on the street that this is what's going to happen.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/uncle-sam-rescue-after-all-latest-rumor-se...
There's no shame in his game, brother!
+20 handles....do I hear 30? 40?
im willing to go against this all night...funny how i saw this and immediately pulled up Zerohedge.com and the article was already posted...maybe tyler is the one goosing the opens and closes...
I mean...20?! 20 fucking handles? Seriously?
fade it
Fade it hard! The talking heads at CNBC are going to come out with bad Christmas news tomorrow.
I'm not lying brah.
I'll give you a sneak preview. It has to do with the North Pole and a certain 100 yr arm that BAC is about to foreclose on.
I can fade it as hard as i want....if it goes to ES 1155, CNBC will still be able to say that we are opening higher in the AM...Cramerica wants to see the heatmap all green tomorrow.....
just going to repost the same thought as many ways as possible, eh Purdouchebag?
No, it's 22 handles now. It's the twist that counts.
Well, other than DX shitting itself what's the use of banging the 1171.50 mark on the SPX when you have the firepower to gap over that?
As to the DX in the crapper, one can only but think how many people are relying on Bennie Bux printing and bailing out Italy with or without the help of the IMF. It is certainly doing a world of good to weaken the Dollar.
Tyler,
Pardon my ignorance but how do you get the 'risk-implied fair value' number?
"First, SPY Arb [20] (which is a
short-term intraday capital structure arbitrage model) - utilizing the
relationship between SPY (equities) and HYG, VXX, & TLT (credit, vol,
and rates)."
Source URL: http://www.zerohedge.com/print/440564
(Last page)
That might help. Also:
http://capitalcontext.com/intraday/
Loads of references scattered through-out archives, even just within last month or three.
Others may pipe up with more useful/direct/correct answer for you, I hope.
But most of the inputs aren't open yet so the number is useless at the moment, right? Or am I missing something here?
Welcome to the hedge. Just have fun with it!
That was the best I could do.
Credit markets seem to be where Tyler lives and breaths...
PS- That CapContext link above is live NOW.
Looks good, thank you. Looking forward to their real-time feed soon. I finally see what Tyler is talking about when he mentions compression trades.
I think he is using a indicator called CONTEXT, which itself is constantly being rejiggered. I am not sure anyone is too clear how CONTEXT is done but you can monitor it HERE
AKA A baseline model. HINT: Some create their own baseline models in order to match their uniqueness. Oh yes, thank you.
Some use a baseline model with nominal rigidities.
Get it? Again, Gurgle it.
Thanks, a bit beyond my abilities at this point, but I'll dig it up, see if it is useful to me :)
Thanks for the link Fonz - I love this site!
Sell @ 64.......
DOW could rally 1000 points this week before they realise the rumour is bullsh*t
The swings are getting bigger, no? Use to be a 20 point S&P move was a shocker. Get use to it.
Black Friday sales cam ethru as expected. In line as they say. Yippie, party all the fucking way to 2012
It needs to be renamed Golden Friday.
It's the Santa Claus rally, in pretty wrapping.
And my ES contracts hit nice. Just sold them at 1170.
what are the trading hours for futurs contracts?
3pm pacific time sunday until friday afternoon.
apparently, now...
u spekt futrs rong.
This how these trend reversals work. Gap up 300 points in the morning and let everyone try to chase it up to new highs. Right? !
ZH'ers always seem confused. Just yesterday the world was ending and the markets are in collapse. Short the world!!
Now, again ZH is wrong - always wrong and the whining has begun. Markets up! Wah!!!! Tyler - make them stop! Wah!!
The lesson is simple and consistent. Do not fight the Fed or equivalent. Never, never, never, never, ever. You will fail in your predictions ZH and fail miserably. Central banks have always won, will always win and the sooner this is accepted, the sooner the ZH Sheeple can get a grasp on reality.
You have no idea the fools you show yourself to be as you blindly follow this cherry picking data site called Zero Hedge.
I know I'm confused.
well that's just like, Your opinion man.
+1
confused?? its called having opinions with leverage....we trade and think SIZE...
go hang out on seekingalpha and invest in equities for a living.
...yawn
No one here fights the Fed.We make Money by playing the Fed and seeing the market how it is.Ok,so,at this moment Dow futures up 185pts.-on rumor,and if the IMF bails out Italy as this rumor is rumorred-So what?
Europe and the American banking system is broken and the Fed is breaking itself by its own actions-this reality,this opportunity.
Zactly. If we FOUGHT the fed, we'd be DUMPING PMs. Think about it, numbskull infiltrators.
You post this often. What confuses me is how you can hold this opinion given 08. Is this the advice you gave to your friends and family in 07?
"The lesson is simple and consistent. Do not fight the Fed or equivalent. Never, never, never, never, ever. You will fail in your predictions ZH and fail miserably. Central banks have always won, will always win and the sooner this is accepted, the sooner the ZH Sheeple can get a grasp on reality."
The reality is, the currency which you trade your labor for, has been devalued over time from a dollar down to two pennies.
Knowing this, you now come before us saying don't fight?...lol...this round is already over, its been over...round two is up next after the pretty girl bounces around for a minute or so waving at the crowd.
Yeah, it's all under control by TPTB. Just marvel at how they've demonstrated their command of the situation so far.
Why are you even here? Idiot. Glittering jewel of colossal ignorance. Are you really as stupid as you make yourself sound, or are you just trolling out of boredom?
If you had any inkling of what Zero Hedge did and does, you would know that it takes, among other things, a bifurcated approach to viewing what is and what will be.
While showing and suggesting what should be happening during conventional times, it is simultaneously showing how THESE ARE NOT CONVENTIONAL TIMES! And if you think they are, then it is you who is the poster child for "sheeple..."
Zero Hedge does the best job possible of navigating through the madness and projecting the madnesses' possible outcomes.
I motherfucking DARE you to do better. And stay honest.
Asshole.
And this is how you make money, you take the rumors and MINT them! ANyTHING else is big BS! We are here to TRADE and make MONEY not call the end of the world, that is coming with or without us shouting it all day 24/fucking/7, I told ya'll last week whoever gets caught long this week will be toast! Jumping on it now is not the answer, going short form here neither! Now you have to WAIT again to go short once we are above 1200 and "change"!
You fret, I make money, good move, since I take all the profits and BUY PHYSICAL!!!
Tyler doesn't really give direct and immediate advice very often. I have noticed though that when he does, it tends to be correct. I'm fading but can't help but feel uncomfortable with it. This is such a perfect time to have a suckers rally.
How marvelous that anymore manipulation is assumed and expected.
Remember that next time you hear some bloviating sack of regime supporting shit decry the 'free markets'.
Sell every rally with both hands. Typical bull markets don't react like this and this quite frankly reeks of manipulation. Bear markets certainly do rally and many a trader can find themselves trapped in a trade on the bull or bear side but eventually fundamentals always matter. All of course in my opinion.
The insiders probably just got rumor of QE to bail out the Goldman States of Europe.
Glad I went long at the close Friday. No sense makes sense in today's market and you might as well profit from it. It's only paper ...
Whenever I see the words "Glad I" its always some past posting, after the fact , aren't I smart posting.
Just sayin.
Since when does the ES trade at near % correlation to EUR/USD. yawn..
Phew, I was beginning to believe I wouldn't get a chance to exit my longs. Not going to waste it. And I just ordered some more junk silver.
Why, given the excellent and timely postings of Tyler Durden with his excellent analyses, charts, and up-to-the-minute reporting, does the comments segment of this blog seem to reflect the readership of a bunch of foul mouthed low brows who can't seem to post a simple line with out the 'f' word or some other such intellectually vacuous vulgarity aka the post of 'Boilermaker?'
It's an interesting dichotomy, something akin to a Pulitzer Prize literary award winner writing for the readership of The National Enquirer, where judging by the level of the comment posts, Boilermaker and his ilk would feel much more at home - even if they still couldn't understand half of what they were reading.
Oh, golly, I'll write more eloquent for you. I didn't mean to hurt your sensitive feelings and offend your gentlemanly ways.
Perhaps we can break open a tube of cookie dough and work out our differences. We can wash it down with a latte and discuss poetry afterwards.
foul mouthed low brows = traders in general...most of us here don't seek to impress other people in conversation...put on a position and then see if you talk pretty
I don't wear a mock turtle neck and tortoise shell glasses nor drink merlot. That doesn't mean I'm not educated. It does mean that I use language appropriate for the situation. This isn't a Harry Potter fan club.
@blahblah
This is fight club, you ass-sucking butt fingering motha focker.
Get over it, putz.
If the bond auctions do well tomorrow we could be looking at a 40 handle for the bell.
yup european auctions equal 40 handle...1140 maybe deeper
QE 3 news also got to be careful on shorts http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-27/dealers-see-fed-buying-545-billion-mortgage-bonds-in-third-ease.html
' “We need to see a bottom in home prices,” said Shyam Rajan'
You won't get a bottom until natural, free-market price discovery finds it, assphuck.
Blue Horseshoe luvz him some Au and Ag.
There is going to be a huge announcement soon of efsf and imf money for spain, italy, and the shoring up of greece and ireland and portugal.
Might be time to get back into risk assets.
Sure, for a 48 hr swing trade maybe.
IMF and or the EFSF has little without the FED hook up. Let's just call this another shell game at best. Fade the futures wth both hands.
Not yet.
Who gives a shit how many handles we open up tomorrow?
The system is fucked, their daughters are getting raped but some fucknuts are celebrating that the casino may just hand them a few crumbs before inflation takes them away with just about everything else they own.
Fuck, no wonder we're in such a mess.
Why is anybody on here surprised? The louder ZH cries "CRASH!" the more likely the market rallies. TPTB are having a ball with the bailout model of capitalism. It could be quite a long time before this bailout period is over. I hear absolutely no public outcry over all the bailouts, and I wonder if anybody is even out there keeping track of all the bailouts worldwide and have any idea what the running total is up to.
Expect massive bailouts to continue at least through the next US presidential election, and probably continue for as long as they can get away with it. Michael Hudson once asked "how much money would it cost to buy up every asset on planet earth?" I'd guess that they've already spent well over that amount on bailouts.
Give up on 2008, it ain't gonna happen again, at least anytime soon. That was an artificial collapse induced on purpose by FED inaction to bring about a crash so they could usher in the new period of rolling bailouts, that's all.
LOL- first up day in a week, the longs are pissing their pants in excitement.....
Wow, I've never seen a 20 handle move before..... Oh, except for every other fucking day this year........
Yeah, go long- those BBY sales will prop up the world........
Nothing like a little irrational exuberance, going into Monday. This is like running a pool on which end of the Titanic gets to the bottom, first.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
The sales are in, but the credit card debt that created them may never be paid.
Invest like it is fake- because it is.
All this bitching about the gap up in this morning, jeez louise. Fucking ES got hammered from 1260's to 1147 intraday low on friday. A bounce is expected doods.
Did you ever stop to think that maybe shorts from last week are now long?
Uh, no.....
Wow- talk about wishful thinking..... Objectively, can't really make much of a case to be long at this point, can you? Buy stocks just because prices bounce 2% pre-market? Pretty freaking silly.......
Living on the hope of Bear bounces- classic sign........
you see, EURUSD gaps in the futures ALWAYS get filled ASAP.
Every future you look at has gapped. What you think where we end within a few hours?
High open is great. The higher it opens, the lower it will be at the close:)
Exactly
Asia isn't slowing down at all-Hong Kong and Japan up 2%!!!.
LOL- yeah, sure......
Go ahead- go borrow some more money and go long- please.......