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Futures Leaking As Japan Cuts Economic Assessment And Aussie Home Sales Slump

Tyler Durden's picture





 

No sooner had Azumi announced his rather unsurprising admission (via Bloomberg) that:

  • *JAPAN CUTS ASSESSMENT OF DOMESTIC ECONOMY
  • *AZUMI SAYS HE SEES RISK OF GOVT FUNDS DRYING UP

then Aussie Home Sales came in much weaker than expected (and their lowest in six months). The repatriation of JPY accelerated - dragging JPY higher and snapping all the other majors lower relative to the USD; and AUD weakened significantly (though already priced for some easing). Of course, as a funding pair for everything still, the AUDJPY carry-unwind is weighing on equity futures (though minimally for now).

AUDJPY vs ES...

 

but all the JPY crosses are under pressure (up is USD strength in chart below):

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:19 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The bullshit continues then. Metals sell off, treasuries rally and anything with yield hold's the line. This is like being in a shitty purgatory.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:18 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The forex markets are so large compared to any other class it is not even funny. When the unwind comes watch all classes crash but the USD and the crappy UST. Not because either are quality, but just simply the fact they are the most attractive horses in the glue factory.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:49 | Link to Comment AUD
AUD's picture

just simply the fact they are the most attractive horses in the glue factory

Not even that. Just simply the fact that they are the most irrational credit bubble of all. The USD is junk through & through.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 00:05 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

What's to come for AUDCNY now that China is buying less?

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 23:36 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

We are acting like a 3 point drop in the ES is a catastrophe.  This will be erased by 8:00am tomorrow. New highs for the year are coming up this week.  Ostrich robots.    

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 01:47 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

No bro.  I'm seeing an overnight rise and chop to blood farts tomorrow.  but yea, "falls" these days are so weak it's like, why even buy vix or equities?

& if the market were behaving normally, tomorrow would be a shitstorm to remember.

 

As for metals, yea, Ive been saying snapback for 3 days now.  & omfg, the aud fell a little bit against the yen.  THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR MONTHS.  & lets NOT FORGET, THE AUSSIES HOUSING BUBBLE IS GOING TO EXPLODE.  WTF do you think that will do to their dollar and how is their central bank going to react?  I've give you a hint, it involves making paper = 0

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

blasphemy!!!!!! HOW DARE YOU????? :P    /sarc ;)

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 00:34 | Link to Comment Doublescythe
Doublescythe's picture

Quit your whining and just buy Apple.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 06:22 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

kyle bass...period.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The robots will have that churned higher in no time.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:24 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

My 2 year old has not slept in 5 nights. She's scared of robots. Up all night yelling about the robots. I never knew we could have so much in common....

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:31 | Link to Comment Mr. Fix
Mr. Fix's picture

It's not the robot, it's who's at the controls.

(pure evil)

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I remember growing up watching shows like Lost in Space ... I used to think robots were really cool. Nowadays not so much.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 06:43 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

That robot in Lost in Space always freaked me out. I can't explain why. But maybe it had something to do with the general feel of that show, which was creepy in its own.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

You didnt think that paper gold was actually useful did you?

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 00:30 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

agreed.

paper gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 01:41 | Link to Comment ClassicCommodity
ClassicCommodity's picture

Actually, if we presume there are aliens out there and that aliens trade with other aliens, then I can see only GOLD as the universal form of money (literally). How else do you do interplantery commerce? If they were to pass by and see us guarding it, they'd probably steal if off of us.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 02:13 | Link to Comment TIMBEEER
TIMBEEER's picture

Yeah, we used to trade Uranium until we got visit from Earth one shiny day - it was a brown man with big ears, telling us about hope and change. He made us realize that paper is worth more than gold or uranium and we made a very beneficial collateral agreement. We will soon be rich and spoiled - no need to invade Earth anymore!

 

Hope and change, Earthlings!

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

is it still winter in Australia .....wait until their spring slump !!!!!

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:37 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I've never figured out how anyone manages to hold on down there, hanging from the bottom of the world as they do. 
I'd ask one of them myself, but damn if I can understand the gobbledygook facsimile of English in which they communicate between themselves.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

I was born in Australia, I have lived in Australia most of my life, and I still don't understand what most Australians are saying. However, you can't really expect too much from a nation of bogans that celebrates violence as much as we do. It's not a good Friday or Saturday night out on the town if you haven't "king hit" some guy in the head and killed him (yes, this happens, with disturbing frequency).

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:51 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

It's not just the crazy accent and particularly the tortured vowels in (some) Australian English that confuses me, it is the incessant, even gratuitous, use of slang and abbreviated words that has frustrated the Hell out of me while talking to Australians --- when they know damned well that NOBODY but them is going to understand those words!

It was the same thing for me, in Spanish, while traveling in Chile --- they seem to love to go out of their way to use mangled words and slang, even to an obvious foreigner, which I eventually found insulting, and which led to me actually avoiding having to talk to people aside from minimalistic and absolutely necessary communication (and my "normal" Spanish is pretty good, too.)

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

you best lay off the drugs. 

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:38 | Link to Comment ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Perhaps a little like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOOA2ZhBIQY

Not ridiculsouly heavy on the slang, but there's some terms he uses that I don't even get. This is an example of the typical male walking the streets of suburban Boganville, Australia.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 23:27 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I couldn't understand anybody half the time when I was working down south near Augusta, Georgia a while back-and they couldn't understand me half the time either.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 23:31 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I worked for a while with a guy from rural Texas, a good guy but damn if I didn't almost need a translator to communicate with him.  He had about the heaviest Southern/Texan accent of anyone I have ever met.  Sometimes, I actually had to have him write down what he was trying to say, I simply could not understand him.  At least he was nice enough about it, and we laughed about it.  Oddly, he had very little trouble understanding me.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 23:57 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

It's jest b'cause ya'll Yankeez talk t'dayaum fast. Got't lern to slow dooooown some ayund reeeelax.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 00:13 | Link to Comment Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Regarding slang, it is interesting how the national character defines what words are exalted to regular slang use.

 

In Australia, there is 'king hit' (devastating suckerpunch), 'skull beer' (drain it in one go), 'larrikin' (goodnatured thief)

 

According to Michael Lewis, in Germany all slang is feces-related. Not sure where I'm going with this.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 00:25 | Link to Comment Surrealist
Surrealist's picture

Austen Tayshus - Australiana [Full and Uncensored - 1983]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im6VEJKd1aA

 

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:00 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

I hear ya man. I'm also an Aussie but have been in the US for just over 10 years. No one believes me here when I tell them you couldn't go out without seeing a major brawl or a bouncer head kicking some drunk guy out onto the street (Chasers, Dome, King St.). Last time some wog bumped me and called me a Yanky cunt. 

Everyone I know really wants to get the fuck out of there. No kidding. 

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Never knew about that kind of violence in Australia --- yikes!

There is NOTHING like that here in Alaska, which I have heard some people compare, in some ways, to Australia --- but too many people are armed here for that kind of thing --- anyone trying it would be essentially committing suicide.  Also the reason why home burglaries are almost vanishingly rare up here --- most people, even if they do not carry in public, are armed at home.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:14 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Yep. Ever since they banned guns, crime shot up and the cost of drugs hit the floor. They couldn't have planned a better corruption of society. 

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

I worked for 18 months after the House passed Cap & Tax and got it to go down in flames, never going to a vote in the Senate. I had a good amount of help doing it and was successful cause Americans are much smarter that Ausies.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Well at least we can still go to the cinema without it turning into a massacre....well for the time being anyways.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Sounds like NYC

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 00:34 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

we're all australians now

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Surrealist
Surrealist's picture

Australia Is Headed For The Disaster Zone

http://www.businessinsider.com/australia-is-headed-for-the-disaster-zone-2012-8

 

 

 

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Steve Keen will have his day in the sun regarding the Aussie housing bubble.  He has been warning them for years.  Will be funny to play back the tapes of the real estate investors telling him back then he was full of shit.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment euphoria
euphoria's picture

Indeed. I will also like visiting people who have been saying for the last couple of years I should buy a property. While they are stuck in negative equity with theirs. Idiots, the lot of them

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:49 | Link to Comment ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

My parents keep saying "why haven't you bought a property yet?! It's the next thing you've got to do!" (much like the scene in Fight Club). I keep telling them that spending more than $400,000 just for a place to live isn't what I want to do. They look at me as if I've just stepped out of an asylum when I say I'd prefer to wait, buy some land, build a tiny house with reclaimed materials and live a quite life. Actually, most people give me the same look.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Everyone saw this coming but they bought...and bought...and bought...

 

Home prices look grim for [Melbourne] property owners

 

THE stagnant Victorian economy and a flood of new housing stock will form a road block to property price growth for the next three years.

 

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/home-prices-look-grim-for-property-...

 

They must mean three dog years (or 21 human years) when you look at China's slowdown, the cancelled projects and  the massive layoffs by the Australian resource companies.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:49 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Thankyou

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 23:29 | Link to Comment ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

There's still plenty of people denying any sort of housing problems in the comments of this article:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/gloom-returns-to-housing-market-...

 

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 02:49 | Link to Comment LikeClockwork
LikeClockwork's picture

This one's on the money:

 

"The party is over. All non mining sectors of the economy are in recession as are the non mining states. People will not commit to more debt as household debt is already 160% of income. The financial whizkids have scared the hell out of the public and every day there is more and more bad news from Europe. The fiscal cliff in the US and slashing of public spending by other countries and Australian and state governments will only add to the pain.

The real unemployment and underemployment rate is 18% and the much lauded investment pipleline in resources is being scaled back as companies put projects on hold. BHP alone has deferred $60B of expansion. The iron ore price is under $100/MT and predicted by the government's own report to drop back to $80/tonne in the short term and $60/tonne over the next 7 years as high quality African supply comes online. The natural gas price has plummeted so far in the US it is cheaper generate electricity using gas than coal and they can produce LNG at half the Asian price putting the massive investment in the North West Shelf in doubt.

Australia will be left high and dry as a high cost shallow economy with ridiculous cost of living. House prices will plummet back to reality and level out at the long term mean growth curve. First they will overcorrect on the downside though as always happens in a major correction and thousands of overleveraged littlelandlords will be left crying in their weeties.

Enjoy!"

Commenter Allan
Location Prahran

 

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 07:20 | Link to Comment ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

That guy is rather infamous on those comments pages. He's very bearish (with good reason), and people tell him to shut up and that he doesn't know what he's talking about. When it all comes crashing down, he'll say "I told you so" and no one will believe him.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 07:30 | Link to Comment awakening
awakening's picture

FWIW I as an Australian second that comment.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

It's certainly taken it's time this Australian housing crash thing. But more and more things are falling into place at an alarming rate, so I guess it's only a matter of time before the government stops friggin bleating on about how great the Australian economy is being the best in the world, blah, blah, blah as it certainly doesn't look so great from what I've been seeing.

I give it 6-12 months before the housing market starts to seriously tank. The top end is fucked(has been for awhile), forget the over-priced middle, the bottom to lower has been somewhat resilient(first home buyers grants will do that!), but house prices are definitely on the slide here in Oz.

Anyone want to buy an apartment I'm selling in Brisbane?

 

 

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 21:57 | Link to Comment lemosbrasil
lemosbrasil's picture

Chevron with 6,5% composition dow jones has lost bullish trend line, Caterpillar is close to lost bullish trend line too, but it has a perfect double top chart with hard bearish divergences at weekly chart.

IBM has touches bearish trendline and down !

VXX has already broke up the long bearish trend line 3 days ago...

so.....the final top to SP500 and Dow Jones was 1,426 !

Rally from 666 in March 2009 until 1,426 to SP500  is over ! over !

see here some charts to this topics : http://pracompraroupravender.blogspot.com.br/2012/08/chevron-com-65-no-dow-jones-perde-sua.html

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:03 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Wait, Ben might give the ultimate bull trap

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:09 | Link to Comment lemosbrasil
lemosbrasil's picture

hahahah......this time is different ! no way !! no way !! game is over !

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:02 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

ES +5 handles by the time I take a morning dump.

Sad, pathetic, but true.  They'll pump the shit out of it anyway.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 23:24 | Link to Comment techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

Those days are numbered.  What's really going to send the market in a tailspin is when the Fed announces QE and it is a Sell the News moment because it has been entirely front run.  Can you imagine the rush to the exits?

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Aussie markets will be torn apart, main index ASX200: banks and mining companies.  That is bad.  Watching HFTs prowling the 100ma on the daily, trying to suck in institutional and retail suckers.  What a mess.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 00:25 | Link to Comment Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Yeah it's gonna be absolute mayhem. And add to that the fact that a staggering proportion of people pay no attention to their superannuation pension payments, have no idea what their super is invested in and exert no active control, and so the money just gets funneled into the main stocks (and bonds).

 

The dumb money flow can keep the wave up for a while even as everyone else bails. So in the end, the most stupid and poor will be left holding the bag and will take the losses. And of course the crashing housing bubble will also disproportionately destroy the futures of the young, stupid and poor.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 00:56 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

they should hfts are all over aust indexes

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 02:59 | Link to Comment LikeClockwork
LikeClockwork's picture

Hang Seng lead ASX into the close and now honkers is cooling off... Still no real movement in BHP to spookify.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Yup got out a long time ago. 

Should have bought APPLE.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 22:34 | Link to Comment Spontaneous Violence
Spontaneous Violence's picture

It will be alright ... our possible pinhead, i mean, incoming Prime Minister, T. Abbott has a plan to fix the economy ... We can all lever up again! ... Let's re-hypothecate ourselves to Wealth ... it may be naïve, but I will never ever understand why bureaucrats think they can "control" the mechanisms of a market/economy/complex intricacies of human behavior

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Tony-Abbott-John-Howa...

 

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 23:18 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

This will give the dickhead Bernank the reason to do QE3

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 00:56 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

If THIS doesn't move the chains nothing will! Bullish!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 02:28 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

So when is a nation going to start arresting or at least make an effort to attack the financial terrorists that are destorying them and the rest of the world? It would likely be a good political move just about now. Hail the demigod. Run for cover.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 07:32 | Link to Comment awakening
awakening's picture

Iceland had the right idea a few years ago, pity that country is such a dirty world to mainstream news sources (I had to learn about it via ZH)

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 06:02 | Link to Comment intric8
intric8's picture

Hey, i hope that Aussie housing market spirals down the freaking toilet. If you are a current homeowner there, dont take this personally. It's just that the thought of the Aussie govt subsidizing up to 20k aud for qualifying home purchasers and have them get ecstatic, only to see prices rise by that same amount the next damn week is just too much for my justice seeking nature to bear. I actually cant comprehend the housing market crashing there as long as jobs arent lost... many many folks have been waiting years to afford a home there. Of course it makes no sense why they cant develop a hell of a lot more there, given the geographic area of that land continent. Maybe kangaroo considerations, venomous spider invasions, Lebo invasions - someone else more knowledgable, enlighten us here.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 06:55 | Link to Comment Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Ah don't get me started on this, it makes my blood boil too.

 

Many of those buying actually realize on some level that it is a ponzi, it's just they are hoping to make a buck on it too before it collapses. These people I have very little sympathy for.

 

When the "Investment Property Owners" (more accurately "Speculation Property Borrowers") start realizing the jig is up, that's when the gigantic rush towards the oh-so-small exit begins. Many of these are nearing retirement and cash-in age too.

 

Australia is heading for a perfect fucking storm

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Praetor
Praetor's picture

Actually I  don't believe the Aussie house market will crash, I have a strong feeling the Labor Government will do everything in their power to keep the nominal house prices constant, a la Bernanke with the S&P, but will destroy the value of the AUD as a consequence.

Can you imagine the grey army finding out their nest eggs for retirement have been blown to peices? Labor will be seen to be helping the battlers to gain the votes. Mark my word they will.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment intric8
intric8's picture

Wanting to support housing prices there is one thing but pulling it off could prove tricky, particularly so due to the recent development of china and its gdp numbers falling off a cliff. A poor economy there has huge ramifications for the aussie economy. They can pull another round of subsidies to cushion the blow, but that harebrained idea is what helped hyperinflate the market to begin with. I dont doubt your veracity. I do, however, observe that the Aus govt tends to make some rather dumb decisions regarding fiscal and economic policy.

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