G-10 Macro Data Plunges To Worst In Six Months, Turns Negative

Tyler Durden's picture

We have discussed the exuberance and dysphoria that is exhibited by economists in the context of extrapolating trends many times and nowhere is that more clearly pictured than in Citigroup's Economic Surprise Index which tracks the rise and fall of both misses and beats as well as better or worse data. For the first time in over six months, macro data for the G-10 has turned negative (with Europe having been there for a while and the US getting very close) indicating significant weakness. When this data turned from positive to negative in July 2010 it pre-empted the 'rescue' of the global economy via QE2 and each time it has dropped below its 200DMA (which it also just did) we have seen notable deterioration in equity prices soon after. What is more worrisome perhaps is the rate of deterioration over the last two months or so. Four of the last five times we dropped this rapidly we saw significant drops in stock prices soon after (Dec 2008, August 2010, and June 2011). Europe and the US are now trending lower in macro data 'surprises' as decoupling disappears but the US remains a little less bad for those looking for silver-linings - for now.

G-10 macro data has turned negative (upper pane) dropped below its 200DMA and is at its lowest in over six months. The pace of deterioration has been rapid (lower pane) and 4 of the previous 5 times this pace of drop has occurred, equity prices have dropped considerably soon after...

US and Europe are now back in sync as decoupling becomes a dim and distant memory though on the bright side we are not missing as badly as Europe...

and in case you were wondering how well this syncs with stock performance, her is the US-only Citi ECO surprise index relative to 3 month changes in the S&P 500...


Charts: Bloomberg

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

But.. But...

Axelrod just tweeted this election will be about WHAT'S HIP, not square!

You don't want to be reeducated, do you, Thought Criminal #3945621?

urbanelf's picture

No way!  I'm just studying for my PhD in economics.

SheepDog-One's picture

In my bathrobe and bunny slippers.

SheepDog-One's picture

EBT cards for baby mommas are whats HIP, bitchez! 

Ted Baker's picture


SheepDog-One's picture

Good, bring on the $7 gas, I need a little excitement and a good laugh!

IndicaTive's picture

Do you think anything gets hinted tomorrow? Seems like even the regular MSM cheerleaders are downplaying any talk of further QE tomorrow. Almost like they're desperately trying to lay the groundwork for the QE "surprise." Any thoughts?

youngman's picture

Data does not matter anymore...its not a market anymore.....its a political statement...Apple...Facebook....come on......the question is can stocks keep up with inflation....I do not think so...can they keep up with hyperinflation...not...will they always beat the street "estimates"....yes they will...

Jim in MN's picture



Moldilocks Economy anyone?  Blame pervasive corruption.

Stoploss's picture

See how the auction went?

buzzsaw99's picture

Gen Ben Shalom will buy them. Not enough billionaires for him yet.

vh070's picture

No worries, the next Republocrat president will solve all our problems.  

HarryM's picture

With this mess, if I were the GOP , I would throw the next election

blunderdog's picture

I think they're trying, but it may not be EASY.

El Viejo's picture

It's hard to determine the lesser of two evils anymore.

jeff montanye's picture

i agree.  they seem to get lesser all the time, yet more evil.  how is that?

at least the ad next to the commentary changed to a dessert topping rather than the obama family "standing up for working families".

905ozs's picture

You really think rothschild Inc, whom have assiduously planned All these last 200yrs, haven't foreseen this...or with much greater probability...planned this from the outcome? 

You all know these creatures are global, east/west, NATO/Warsaw Pact, developed/"developing" economies, left/right politico, ww1,2, Vietnam to Syria to etc bloody etc

Truly, we are fodder, unless we go for the Head, it is groundhog slavery day, a preplanned cycle of "wealth" or poverty, shuttled around the world.
Then, when much power is centralized & 1bn+Humanity is deemed an unnecessary hassle....we are dispensed with.

We all this to be true to a greater or lesser extent.

My question is, Why?
When those few indentured, producers are left, controlled utterly by 3 "families" what then? 
Is there something I don't know? (probably a lot:)), a lot:)

I haven't worked out the ultimate Why? 
Is it religious, tech advancement, power crazed, in mankind's best interest or what? 
I would prefer Rothschild Inc were rounded up & shot, but that's just me.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea I dont think theyre that smart, I dont buy the 'super genius elites' everyones so scared of.....bunch of inbred lunatic retards is all they really are. 

jeff montanye's picture

it's hard to know who is right on this one, but the evidence seems stronger for you: vietnam, watergate, iran, irancontra, clinton/monica, election 2000, 9-11, iraq, tarp, obama campaign vs. reality.  if it's a seamless plan, they are trying to see how much poo they can toss into the hunter with sufficiently enough not noticing.

905ozs's picture

A little log...sorry zh

DOT's picture

"... a little less bad..."

Translation: Bullish !

sbenard's picture

This is the most troubling data thus far, because it is so broad-based.

SheepDog-One's picture

The up-trend is down...this means good, VERY good indeed! Muah ha ha haaaa!

Snakeeyes's picture

Now, aint that a kick in the head. 

Citi Economic Surprise Index Shows Deteriorating Trend - Was Bernanke Too Optimistic? (or Cheerleading?)