Gallup Finds Obama, Romney In Dead Heat As Daily Tracking Begins, With Independents Leaning Toward GOP

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Now that the GOP primary is essentially over, and Mitt Romney is set, for better or worse, to be the Republican frontrunner, Gallup has launched its daily tracking poll to keep an eye on each one's presidential prospects. Not surprisingly, the result is a dead heat. "Mitt Romney is supported by 47% of national registered voters and Barack Obama by 45% in the inaugural Gallup Daily tracking results from April 11-15. Both Obama and Romney are supported by 90% of their respective partisans." What is curious is that "The crucial voting bloc of independents breaks toward Romney by 45% to 39%, giving the GOP challenger his slight overall edge." So will Obama now be forced to make a moderate push to attract what will likely be the critical voter constituency in November? We will find out over the next few months.

This is not surprising: as we showed previously American voter apathy is the second highest among all developed countries, better only compared to South Korea. Even so, less than 50% of the population will participate in an active election process. In other words, the majority of Americans is silent. And as is well known, of the balance of voters, the split along party lines is almost straight down the middle. Just as the onetwo-party political system likes it.

This is how Gallup defines its methodology.

These results are the first from Gallup Daily tracking of registered voters' general election preferences, which began on April 11 and will be reported daily on Gallup.com on the basis of continuous five-day rolling averages. This initial report is based on interviews with 2,265 registered voters, and highlights the potential closeness of this year's race, with Romney and Obama essentially in a statistical tie. Gallup's previous general election trial heat, from a national poll conducted March 25-26, showed Obama with a slight 49% to 45% lead over Romney.

 

Gallup began tracking the general election on Wednesday, April 11, after Rick Santorum suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination, making Romney the all-but-assured GOP nominee.

 

The race breaks down into the expected patterns by party, with 90% of Democrats supporting Obama, and 90% of Republicans supporting Romney. The Republican results show that despite the rancor and divisiveness of the Republican campaign, the vast majority of Republicans are backing Romney in the head-to-head battle with Obama, as they have in ballot tests earlier this year.

Gallup's conclusion:

History shows that the candidates' positioning in the spring of an election year is not necessarily good at forecasting the election outcomes. For example, in an April 20-22, 1992, Gallup poll, incumbent President George H.W. Bush was ahead with 41% of the vote, compared with 26% for Bill Clinton and 25% for Ross Perot. And in an April 11-14, 1980, poll, incumbent President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 42% to 34%, with John Anderson receiving 18% support. Both Bush and Carter, of course, ultimately lost their re-election bids.

 

Still, the current results, and the results that will follow as Gallup tracks the race on a daily basis, provide an excellent, scientific way to understand the dynamics of the election campaign, and the impact of foreseen and unforeseen events in the weeks and months ahead. And, at this point, the results show that the 2012 presidential election is shaping up to be a close race.

What is odd is why nobody, ahem Ron Paul, is willing to target that 50%+ segment of the population that is utterly disgusted with either party... That we don't understand.

Finally, as a reminder...

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Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:08 | 2349318 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Two sides of the same (fake fiat) coin.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:11 | 2349335 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

go to any betting website (ladbrokes, etc) and obama is 1-2 favorite

as if it matters choosing between these two dweebs

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:15 | 2349359 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Yea, because people who compulsively gamble on shit like this, are ALWAYS right.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:46 | 2349479 economics9698
economics9698's picture

According to Dick Morris undecided’s break 3 to 1 for the challenger.  That means Obama needs to be around 48% to have a good shot at winning.  Most successful incumbents are easily over 50% or at 50%.  Morris seems to think a incumbent needs to be at 50% to win.

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:47 | 2349495 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Not voting for Obama is rayciss.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:11 | 2349590 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

what does using a betting line as a baramoter of odds of winning/losing have to do with  being compulsive and always right???????????

now i know why bob dabolina is considered an idiot here on ZH

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:37 | 2349699 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

"Mitt Romney is supported by 47% of national registered voters and Barack Obama by 45% in the inaugural Gallup Daily tracking results from April 11-15. Both Obama and Romney are supported by 90% of their respective partisans."

I call bullshit on Gallup.

These numbers can only be accurate if you don't count the Ron Paul supporters.

Looks like Gallup has been captured by TPTB.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 18:22 | 2349956 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

EVERYONE!!

Please!

Do!

NOT!!

Forget to VOTE!!

Every Vote Counts!!

http://www.cs.princeton.edu/~herbach/SimulatingAVCAdvantage.pdf

analyzing the Sequoia AVC Advantage DRE voting machine

 

https://jhalderm.com/pub/papers/ts-evt07-init.pdf

Security Analysis of the Diebold AccuVote-TS Voting Machine

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GamR4y_ykA0

How to Hack a Voting Machine

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 18:48 | 2349995 flacon
flacon's picture

RON PAUL is the only human running for president! RON PAUL 2012!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 19:50 | 2350112 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

In any event, Ron Paul is at least someone who we can be certain was born in the USA.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 20:04 | 2350124 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

So, what if they held an election and nobody voted?

Tue, 04/17/2012 - 00:07 | 2350516 James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

Sorry, this is the year to plug your nose and pull the lever for the "one and done" party. 

I love the smell of term limits in the morning.

Don't let the PTB win. 

Vote for the non-incumbent across the board. 

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:18 | 2349624 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Obama is our greatest President.  Taken as a whole he perfectly reflects our greedy, self interested, narcissistic, immoral, corrupt and belligerent selves.  I used to think it was the Harvard MBA GW Bush.  And before that, I thought Clinton was our finest President (even minus the BJs I would have thought this).  Of course, I thought the same of former Top Cop (CIA) Papa Bush... and let's not forget our revered and beloved Hollywood-esque  Reagan in his most serious role: President, and leader of the Free World.

Oh, and one final thing,  go Ron Paul... because we'd hate him!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:25 | 2349657 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Ignatius, I think you have hit the nail on the head, and with quite a well-aimed and solid blow. Good observation, good analysis and very well stated. Unfortunately, beyond the vision of those who refuse to see. But keep hammering anyway.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:23 | 2349652 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The Republican's will not win without the Ron Paul vote.  I want to see Mitt engage in some real earnest bowing and scraping to Cong. Paul at the convention, or I'll stay home, tend my garden, read a book and clean my gun on election day.

There's no difference between Romney and Obama.  I just want Romney to abase himself on national TV.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:40 | 2349732 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Screw it, stay home, or write Paul in.

If the Republicans lose, they have no one to blame but themselves, given how weak Obama is as a candidate.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 17:16 | 2349817 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Admittedly, Obama should be an easy knock-out for the Rethuglicas or any viable 3rd party candidate if this rigged system allowed it. The problem is, the Rethuglican candidates (Paul excluded) are even weaker, more lame, more despicable, and less desirable than Obama. Which would be nearly impossible to believe in itself if you didn't see or hear any of those losers on TeeVee or in the media.

Welcome to America, circa 2012. YeeHaw!

Tue, 04/17/2012 - 01:33 | 2350627 Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

Even worse for Obama is that Gallup tracks registered voters as opposed to Rasmussens likely voters. The hopeless wonder be going down!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:51 | 2349517 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

bob dab--- i was noting that the polls are calling it an even bet while the betting sites are taking money that indicate obama a fairly heavy favorite.............money bet is a better indicator, but romney still has approx 1 in 3 chance of winning

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:56 | 2349543 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

i'm taking all even money bets on romney (will hedge them with bookies by betting obama) and will skim the huge middle

every stock trader should understand this......hint, bob dab

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 21:19 | 2350253 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

You're doing it wrong.  To hedge the bets you're taking on Romney you should bet on Romney.  If Romney wins you get the difference between the odds you're offering and the odds you get from the bookies.  If Romney loses you don't have to pay out on the bets you took.  Adjust the size of your hedge to net the same in either case.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:14 | 2349360 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"1-2 favorite"

------------------------------------

I don't know if you should be visiting those websites or any bookie that gives you 1-2 odds for the favorite.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:41 | 2349465 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

bet 2 win 1

odds on........... might be 5-9 now

in a two horse race the favorite is going to be less that 1-1

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 17:33 | 2349861 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

damn, in truth, that is not easy money.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 21:25 | 2350261 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Unless one knew for certain that Ron Paul would be running as an independent, "spoiling" the election by splitting the republican vote.  http://www.americanselect.org/

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:23 | 2349383 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Reasons why Ron Paul is NOT a credible candidate:

  1. Ron Paul favors ending foreign aid to Israel, one of our key strategic allies. This will result in a serious blow to our joint effort to end terrorism and spread freedom worldwide.
  2. Mr Paul is a know racist, who supports the repeal of the civil rights act. It has been documented by countless history professors that slavery would not have ended without this legislation and that if it were to be repealed today, people would become racist again.
  3. Ron Paul favors auditing the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States of America. According to many economists and Federal Reserve officials, including members of top financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase, this would seriously compromise their ability to set monetary policy independently of congress. 
Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:30 | 2349421 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

MDB,

 

     So solly, but your troll-fu not very strong with that post.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:39 | 2349458 economics9698
economics9698's picture

"supports the repeal of the civil rights act. It has been documented by countless history professors that slavery would not have ended without this legislation and that if it were to be repealed today, people would become racist again."

Become racist again, lmao.  

I think people are becoming racist again but only because of the dead bodies piling up around the country caused by black on white crime.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:45 | 2349481 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Rayciss be bad.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 18:08 | 2349933 smiler03
smiler03's picture

MMMKay. Mr Mackey is that you?

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:02 | 2349562 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

(Non-black) People see how the liberal agenda has succeeded in completely destroying the concept of a nuclear family for the vast majority of black people and it scares them, because they know Hispanics/whites/Asians are next (in that order).

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:14 | 2349603 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

How about white on black crime?

Remember Amadou Diallo?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amadou_Diallo_shooting

or Maybe Oscar Grant?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscar_Grant#Oscar_Grant_III

If those murders are not enough for black people to hate policemen, slavery never really ended.

The Other Dave in SF (where all of the swans are pink and we're f***ing proud of it!)

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:25 | 2349659 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Oddly it is mostly the Left who go on and on about racial differences.  These white/black on black/white comments miss the point.  16 of every 17 (94%) of black men are killed by other black men. It is not that the 1 out of 17 is not tragic.  But there is an attempt to generalize the rare occurrence and present it as the norm when the very opposite is true.  Most folks don't give a rat's ass what the shade of someone's skin is.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:32 | 2349430 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not one of you better satirical posts MDB.  Regarding #3, yeah, people who are conducting illegal and unethical operations often hate to be held accountable.  Damn, I took the bait.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:02 | 2349567 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

MDB lost his subtlety and realism.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:38 | 2349455 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Correct - we should maintain our relationship with Israel at all costs because we get so much out of it

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:41 | 2349459 Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

"people would become racist again"

 

Cmon y'all, that's funny!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:53 | 2349523 House of Ronin
House of Ronin's picture

Notice these are knowns...I would rather dance with the devil I know... Than have my liberties slowly stripped through the backdoor, masked as something they aren't (i.e. ndaa)

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:55 | 2349532 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

"Mr Paul is a know racist, who supports the repeal of the civil rights act. It has been documented by countless history professors that slavery would not have ended without this legislation"

 

@Million-I didn't know we still have slaves running plantations until 1964. Good to know!

 

Listen, I can't continue to defend you as the official Zerohedge troll if you continue to act like a fucking dipshit without a brain. Scale it back and be a little less fucking dumb.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:16 | 2349616 Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

Do you miss your son?  Haven't seen him around these parts lately.  Must be analyzing AAPL for some backward looking trade ideas...

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 21:34 | 2350282 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You know what they say about the AAPL and the tree...

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 20:57 | 2350192 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

MBD...

No one has ever made me puke from reading shit that spews from their patriotic mouth,but you have came very very close.

Fuck Off  and die.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 21:33 | 2350281 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

What's the Israel strategy? Get everyone nuked?

How's that alliance going vis-a-vis 9/11/2001 and the USS Liberty?

"Ron Paul favors auditing the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States of America. According to many economists and Federal Reserve officials, including members of top financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase, this would seriously compromise their ability to set monetary policy independently of congress. "

Ya, according to the Mafia and to the Vatican it also compromises their ability to operate if we audit everything they do.

These gangster criminal organizations, Fed included, compromise our entire financial security and all of our economies. We have to compromise them or we die.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 23:52 | 2350485 Pitchman
Pitchman's picture

MillionDollarBonus

1. That's a joke right?

2. I will not.  Will you?

3.  You prefer an independent cabal issue our currency and lend it to us at interest, which is contrary to the Constitution?

 

The 11 who gave you a thumbs up are still laughing.

 

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 20:47 | 2350198 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

derek...it is actually 53 - 47 favoring Obama now.

I'll take your Obama 1-2 odds price all day long. Don't be so feckin stupid in this space.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 23:17 | 2350446 knukles
knukles's picture

I'll hold your bets in an allocated customer account....

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:11 | 2349344 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

No matter what nonsense delegate numbers the MSM is spewing, Romney is not even half way to 1144 delegates and Ron Paul is pulling upsets all over the country in delegates, which is the only thing that matters.  Santorum supporters are now crossing over to Ron to shut out Romney and will only add to Ron's delegate count.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:21 | 2349382 battle axe
battle axe's picture

No way Ron Paul takes the nomination, maybe, just maybe he gets offered VP spot, but even that is a long shot. 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:29 | 2349415 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

Based on what? The MSM false reports of delegate counts?  The winner of the Straw Polls, aka "Beauty Contests" have nothing to do with delegate counts.  

 

With the suspension of Rick Santorum’s presidential campaign, mainline Republicans immediately began reporting that the race was over, and that Mitt Romney was the GOP nominee for the presidency. But Romney supporters may have started celebrating prematurely. If recent events are any indication, Ron Paul is a dangerous competitor.

First, Rick Santorum’s supporters have begun uniting with Paulistas on an anti-Romney slate at state conventions. Bolstered by this arrangement, Ron Paul is gathering large numbers of delegates even in states where he performed poorly in the initial voting. In Colorado, a state where Paul came in last place, a Paul/Santorum “Conservative Unity Slate” has captured the plurality of delegates, with Ron Paul leading the coalition. In addition, the Paul/Santorum alliance removed Romney supporter Ryan Call, Colorado State Party Chairman, from his seat as Delegation Chairman, as well as placed two of its own members on the state’s Rules Committee.

Similarly, in Minnesota, three district conventions were held, with Ron Paul winning every delegate. Much is also suspected in Missouri. And in states where Paul performed well, the effects are predicted to be even more dramatic.

Second, Ron Paul has the best chance to win over Evangelicals and even more Santorum supporters, as seen in events past and present. Remember that it was Ron Paul who won the Evangelical Values Voters Summit straw poll back in October of 2011.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:04 | 2349526 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Abiotic Oil: They are  not going to pick Ron Paul, he will in no way win enough delegates, do the math. The Romney campaign, if they are smart will pick someone like Rubio from Florida, he is Hispanic (fastest growing segment of the population) He is arch conservative (appeals to the base of the party) he is CATHOLIC (takes care of Romney's Mormon problem). Also Ron Paul has not come across great in the GOP debates. He is a loose canon that the party does not want (even though a lot of what he says is correct). You can wish for this guy all you want, but he is DOA. I would love to see Paul Ryan as a running mate, but he will probably wait it out until 2016 or 2020 because much like the rest of us on ZH, he knows the shit is going to hit the fan worse then it already has. 

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