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Gallup Finds Unemployment Rises For Fourth Week In A Row, Cautions On BLS Data

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Gallup, which unlike the BLS, does not fudge, Birth/Die, or seasonally adjust its data, has just released its most recent (un)employment data. And it's not pretty: for all those hoping that the Labor Participation Rate fudge that managed to stun the world a few weeks ago with a major drop in the November jobless rate, don't hold your breath. Gallup which constantly pools 30,000 people on a weekly basis, has found that for the past 4 weeks, both underemployment and unemployment have risen for 4 weeks in a row. And while the number of US workers "working part time and wanting full-time work" one of the traditional short cuts to boosting US jobs has risen to almost a 2 year high, it is the Job Creation Index in December which plunged in the last week, confirming that the Initial Claims data out of the BLS has been spurious and is likely to revert back over 400k on short notice. In summary, here is how Gallup debunks the BLS' propganda: "The sharp drop in the government-reported unemployment rate for November and the sharp drop in jobless claims during the most recent reporting week have combined to create the perception that the job market may be improving. Economists are wondering whether this means the economy is stronger than previously estimated. Political observers are wondering how fast and how far the unemployment rate needs to fall to significantly improve the president's re-election prospects. In contrast, Gallup's data suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. December unemployment is up slightly on an unadjusted basis. In fact, the government is likely to report essentially no change in the unemployment rate when it issues its report on December unemployment in the first week of 2012. Of course, this assumes that the labor force doesn't continue to shrink at so rapid a pace that it drives down the unemployment rate, as it did last month. Gallup's most recent weekly job creation numbers also suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. As a result, it may be wise to exercise caution in interpreting the drop in the government's most recent jobless claims numbers." Or, less diplomatically, the BLS is lying like a drunken sailor just as the economy is about to turn. And if BAC continues languishing under $5, it will turn very hard.

More details, first on broad Underemployment or U-6

Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 18.4% in mid-December, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment. This is up slightly from 18.1% at the end of November and similar to the 18.5% of a year ago. Gallup's U.S. Underemployment Rate, 2010-2011

... and then on the far less important broad unemployment rate, or U-3

Unemployment, one of the two components of underemployment, is at 8.7% in mid-December -- up from 8.5% at the end of last month, but down from 9.3% a year ago. Gallup's unemployment measure suggests the government is likely to report essentially no change for December 2011 in its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, though this is even more difficult than usual to predict at this time of year.

Gallup's U.S. Unemployment Rate, 2010-2011

Those working part-time and getting no benefits is getting larger.

The second component of underemployment is the percentage of U.S. employees who are working part time but want full-time work. It is now at 9.7% -- essentially the same as the 9.6% at the end of November. However, the current reading is significantly higher than the 9.2% of mid-December 2010.

Percentage of U.S. Workers Working Part Time and Wanting Full-Time Work, 2010-2011

Job Creation slides:

Gallup's Job Creation Index for the week ending Dec. 11 is +12, based on 30% of workers nationwide saying their employers are hiring and 18% saying their employers are letting workers go. Just a week earlier, Gallup's Job Creation Index tied its weekly high for the year (+16). Still, Gallup's latest weekly results contrast sharply with the government's recent report that jobless claims fell to a three-year low during the week ending Dec. 10.

 

Gallup's Job Creation Index and the government's jobless claims report tend to have an inverse relationship and generally tend to align. Although this alignment does not necessarily happen on a weekly basis, it tends to be more erratic around the holidays as seasonal adjustments and processing issues make weekly jobless claims more volatile.

Job Creation Index by Week, 2010-2011

And finally, here is the question: are you going to believe an impartial Gallup, or the BLS whose sole function is to make Obama's reelection chances easier?

Growing Unemployment Optimism May Be Premature

 

The sharp drop in the government-reported unemployment rate for November and the sharp drop in jobless claims during the most recent reporting week have combined to create the perception that the job market may be improving. Economists are wondering whether this means the economy is stronger than previously estimated. Political observers are wondering how fast and how far the unemployment rate needs to fall to significantly improve the president's re-election prospects.

 

In contrast, Gallup's data suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. December unemployment is up slightly on an unadjusted basis. In fact, the government is likely to report essentially no change in the unemployment rate when it issues its report on December unemployment in the first week of 2012. Of course, this assumes that the labor force doesn't continue to shrink at so rapid a pace that it drives down the unemployment rate, as it did last month.

 

Gallup's most recent weekly job creation numbers also suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. As a result, it may be wise to exercise caution in interpreting the drop in the government's most recent jobless claims numbers.

 

Further, one reason unemployment is often seen as a lagging indicator has to do with the way people enter and leave the workforce. Even if the recent seeming improvement in the job market is more real than Gallup's data imply, signs of a better job market are likely to bring new job seekers into the workforce. The result could be a reversal of last month's drop in the unemployment rate as the workforce increases in size.

 

In sum, while pleasant thoughts about the job market may be nice for the holidays, caution is clearly warranted -- at least as far as too much job market optimism is concerned -- until the data unfold over the next couple of months.

 


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Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:28 | Link to Comment bullnutz
bullnutz's picture

Wouldn’t you take money out of individual accounts rather than losing your life?  According to SilverDoctors, that’s the choice Corzine was faced with.

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/12/jp-mograns-jaime-dimonthreaten...

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper Afternoon Update & Threadjacking

 

Chevron Oil Spill Reaches Beach In Rio

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/12/18/official-says-oil-spill...

Wars Blamed On Lack Of Women; Executive Order Issued To Correct Problem

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/19/obama-women-can-make-wor...

District Attorney Says No Need To Register As Sex Offender Because 13 Yr Old Boy Chased His 27 Yr Old Hot Teacher

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/broward/fort-lauderdale/fl-teacher-sex-...

Linn County Supervisor Endorses Ron Paul

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/19/ron-paul-nabs-endorseme...

VIDEO: Rob Dyrdek Kick Flips A Chevy Sonic Over A Skateboard

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LleYanG7_Q

VIDEO: Santa Uses Siri On iPhone; Commercial Goes Viral

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qcmCUsw4EQ

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

A little story today about Muslim/GM Motors fvking over Saab.   Saab had a Chinese investor to help save the company.  GM/Muslim Motors vetoed the deal.  Saab will probably liquidate now.

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

OT

I just heard Dick Morris on the Sean Hannity talk show talking to Mark Simone about Ron Paul, and he just call him a "Flaming uh Hole". For those who don't know what that means it's "Flaming Ass Hole".

I think Dick Morris should be fired from FOX news for his outragious disrespect. That's like calling some a nigger or other ethnic slur on national radio. I'm calling for Dick Morris to be FIRED right now.

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Raskolnikoff
Raskolnikoff's picture

Look for more wars from China or a nice civil one, they are short women, as they like to abort the girls or abandon them over there(as does their next door neighbor India). Maybe they'll be smart like the Japanese (which coincidentally are serial abortionists too) and import some Philipino women, which are just as gorgeous as the women they chose to throw away. Don't you just love over reaching, controlling societies which shoot themselves in the foot all the time...and people hate the religious right wing...LOL, yeah...right, do what you want, but having as many women as possible seems to rank high on the list of any of the healthy societies.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You can never have too many women!

Every guy needs two or three.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:23 | Link to Comment ratso
ratso's picture

Gallup has a long history of politically tainted polling - so let's not kid ourselves about the motives here by designating them as somehow pristine.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Flaming?  Are you sure he wasn't referring to Marcus (Ladybird) Bachman?

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 20:41 | Link to Comment oceanview76
oceanview76's picture

I have an immediate family member that works for the Unemploment dept. in Florida.

Since the new Governor took over, they have been continuingly making it harder and harder for people to collect unemployment for legitimate claimants. They reduced the hours that people could call in to file which overloads the system so people can't get through, they send job seekers to minimum hourly rate job interviews many counties away in the hopes they don't waste the gas so they can deny them their claims, they are no longer allowed to help people fax, or work on the computers to look for jobs, and they also increased the number of required weekly applications so that they can remove more UI claims for not adhering to the tougher guidelines.

Maybe some of this is picking up or has been going on in other states as well. If people can't file and are blocked from getting the benefits, it would present itself favorably in the Gov't statistics but not the independent's.

Meanwhile, everyone in the UI office knows that no jobs are forthcoming, and the Management in the offices are pushing very hard in their attempts to manipulate and manage the statistics through these and other similar tactics.

So maybe the statistics are in fact accurate; but how and why the numbers are moving the way they are, is a little less genuine.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:36 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

I junked you because there's simply not enough good Scotch in the world.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 22:41 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

The latest official unemployment rate is 8.6%. Everyone knows it is worse but very few have the skill set to find out the truth. Different economist have different methods. I like using “real world” analysis comparing today’s economy where the federal government consumes 25.3% of the GDP to the 1999-2000 economy where the federal government consumed 18.2% of the GDP.


Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate going nowhere but down


I do this because that is when the labor force participation rate peaked at 67.9% in July 1999. The employment-population ratio also peaked at 64.9% that month. Compared that to today’s dismal 27 year lows of 63.9% and 57.6% respectively.

 

Simply put keeping the 1999 ratios we have 140,580,000 workers today compared to the 148,681,000 we should have with limited federal government and sound economic policies. The civilian labor force is 153,683,000 but under the 1999 criteria it would be 157,278,000. Doing the math the “1999? unemployment rate would be 10.6%, not 8.6%.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 22:46 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

Filipinos are a standard deviation lower in IQ.  Should have keep the close hanger in the closet.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Dick's mom sure got his name right.  Did he really say that?  So, Ron Paul is an asshole but Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, the Clintons, are great people?  Oh, didn't Dickie have a falling out with the Clintons when he got caught with a hooker?  Was the hooker a guy?  Had to be. 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

So you're saying Dick knows something about uh holes.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

Yes he actually did say that. Someone has to youtube the clip. Perhaps Drudge will put it on his front page. What was that Gandahi quote.. then you win?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:49 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

I am all for Ron Paul but we have to make sure that POS Gingrich does not get the nomination. He is the worst. Huntsman is close.   These people are so evil.  Gingrich is a huge NWO/CFR stooge. I never realized what a mega POS he is.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Anyone who gives Dick Morris cred has something up their uh hole.  Having Morris against him should help Paul.  It's like if Hitler came out against Paul, which he would if he were alive.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:21 | Link to Comment PhotonJohn
PhotonJohn's picture

Every institutional politician or media hack is afraid of exactly what a Ron Paul presidency would mean for them. Lies would be exposed. They will do everything they can to stop him.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Triple A
Triple A's picture

dickliss morris is a fucking nerd. I really don't like him

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Hannity loves that NWO/CFR POS RINO name Newt Gingrinch.  You might as well vote for Obama cause Gingrinch is just as bad.  

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

FYI.  Limbaugh's web site is dumping on Ron Paul as well.  F you Rush.  Rush is pimping open-borders Jeb Bush (gag).  No more Bushes.

Gingrich tried F over Ron Paul years ago when he was running.  Gingrich the POS got Poppy Bush to campaign for Ron paul's opponent.  Ron won.  Newt is a real slime ball.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 01:45 | Link to Comment TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

NEWT tried in 1997, to make it a federal crime punishable by the death penalty for selling quantities of marijuana. Despite Newt admitting he had smoked marijuana himself. And that he had tried to pass a medical marijuana bill in 1981.

He is the lowest sort of self serving scum that will say anything to get elected.

 

http://www.ndsn.org/oct95/gingrich.html

 

http://www.alternet.org/drugs/153414/newt_gingrich_proposed_the_death_pe...

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 21:16 | Link to Comment philipat
philipat's picture

"I just heard Dick Morris on the Sean Hannity talk show talking to Mark Simone about Ron Paul, and he just call him a "Flaming uh Hole".

Faux (Murdick) is establishment Republican and Romney is their boy. They are terrified of Ron Paul. Go Ron!!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Less competition the better it is!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:32 | Link to Comment HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Bundle up like this gal - http://hedge.ly/gFWVSm  --- BERRRR its gonna be a cold night 

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

This will not please Kim Jong Barack!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:30 | Link to Comment transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

Employment is so overrated. The USSA is nirvana, didn't you know?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:44 | Link to Comment gangland
gangland's picture

repost

banks could write down the principal of underwater mortgages (roughly 30% of total) at a one-year cost of $71 billion saving underwater families an average of $543 per month, pumping billions into the economy and creating one million jobs.

The banks have the money – this year’s compensation pool is projected to be more than double that.

 

http://www.newbottomline.com/bankers_on_track_to_receive_near_record_bon...

http://warisacrime.org/content/2011-big-bank-bonuses-set-be-near-record-...

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Ese Pinche
Ese Pinche's picture

FACE!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment bullnutz
bullnutz's picture

Who needs a job?  Medicaid is great here in the US

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:34 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im eatin my gold, fuck it.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Well, At least youll be shitting tiffany cufflinks for Gunnery Sgt Hartman

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:56 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I was walking into a mall on Saturday.  Don't ask me why.  I knew it would not be my thing.  Looking at the collection of misfits walking in ahead of me made me want to cry.  I went to Macy's, hoping that the scene would not be too vile.  I was wrong.  The customers were repulsive.  Clothing, and other goods, were treated with absolutely no respect.  It looked like wild animals had been looking at the merchandise.  The whole scene was one that made me just want to get the fuck out of there.

And these "people" are employable doing what?  They can't even act with a shred of dignity and humanity during Christmas.  Just disgusting. 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:07 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

at the mall today, last minute as usual. many shelves empty, stores bought just enough to last through black friday. department stores offering 50 pct off already. just not feeling that whole credit induced frenzied atmosphere vibe in the shopping centers these days. if the retail numbers come out strong, then its clear the merchandising industry went the way of the realtors...counting a pair of pants as exactly that, a pair....................

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Really? Have you tried it yet?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:32 | Link to Comment HileTroy
HileTroy's picture

Im not smart guy trader and all but I used to be a builder in my former life, its pretty clear that that drop was cuz all the poor bastards on 99 month unemployment droped of the rolls.. and POOF our fearless leaders in guberment have determined all is well thats good for a .4% drop in unemployment.  Funny you cant make this shit up!!!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. Lots more to come as the 99ers drop off the ice cliff

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:57 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I talked to an old friend today that is a contractor.  This is the first time he told me that his business is so bad, and has been for so long, that he has to think of doing something else.  He is bringing in little money and has to think of finding another way to make a living.  I don't know what he will do but I know he doesn't show up on any employment statistics. 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Kali
Kali's picture

What else is your friend going to do?  This is the same thing I am hearing and seeing from my clients (who are not builders, but all walks of biz).   I have people who have been self employed/biz owners for years talking about getting a "job".  Where?  Small businesses have been devastated over the last 3 years and none of this is reflected in the unemployment stats, except, perhaps, when they lay off their employees.  Oh, that's another thing.  Many of my clients have told me they have put off laying off their employees until after the holidays.  I think this will be known in the future as Black Xmas. 

One of my clients told me this morning her 3 businesses are hanging on by a thread.  I have seen a DROP in traffic as I work out and about, store parking lots empty, few smiling faces.  This is all reaching a head.  I think people are just trying to keep a little cheer just for the kiddos sake, but from the signs I am seeing, the New Year is gonna be awful. 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:26 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Thank you for your thoughts.  I have no idea what he could possibly do.  He has been in building, in one form or another, for at least 15 years. 

His wife took a huge paycut a couple years ago.  At least they managed to save before this spot but without her parents swinging them money things may not be so good.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Kali
Kali's picture

My heart goes out to them.  Even my own business is starting to tank, costs/margins are tough for all bizzes, not just construction.  Cash flow projections are horrible everywhere.  I was wondering when this economy would catch up with me.  I don't know what else I would do.  The thought of going to work for some f'n corporation or collecting a "paycheck" where half of my money is taken before I even get it makes me ill.  I have to go have a drink and a smoke now......

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

And get laid.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:28 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Get loans to go back to school.
An older person ought to be able to choose wisely so that the loans are worth the training and income potential.

Move to north dakota. If you hang out in the restaurant for an hour you have a job according to a previous CNN news story. Be prepared to hot bunk due to the housing shortage.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Cost of doing business and margin squeeze are unreal for small businesses in the construction sector. It is by far the worst I have seen in 25 year's. Most owner's I have spoke to, there 13 week cash flow projection's are horrid at best. 

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Cost for any small business is unreal.

I am supposed to have an MSDS on my white out and airfreshener even.
Oh and keep it updated. ADA. Insurance, both liability and healthcare.
Employee turnover, cuz they all naturally want that big corporate or government job if it comes up.

All small businessmen seem to agree with me that in order to survive and become successful you will be breaking a few laws and regulations. If you dont believe you are then you are probably just blissfully ignorant.

We are the new outlaws.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:49 | Link to Comment IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

I sure feel like an outlaw whenever I deal with government paperwork.

Or is it:  I sure feel like I'm dealing with outlaws whenever I deal with the government.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:25 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Large businesses and government agencies provide forms of stability not found in small businesses.

 

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment Raisuli
Raisuli's picture

I suspect that many small businesses are in a similar predicament. I suspect that the sentiment of those that have been added to the increasing class of marginalized citizens may some day get it.

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment HileTroy
HileTroy's picture

Im not smart guy trader and all but I used to be a builder in my former life, its pretty clear that that drop was cuz all the poor bastards on 99 month unemployment droped of the rolls.. and POOF our fearless leaders in guberment have determined all is well thats good for a .4% drop in unemployment.  Funny you cant make this shit up!!!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I'm not a "smart guy trader" either but I read this site daily because Tyler & the bunch tell the truth here.  I just read Ron Susskind's book about Obama "Confidence Men" and in it the White House "smart guys" are scratching their heads because Obama was going around saying that "unemployment was high because of productivity gains" and that the "government couldn't and shouldn't do much to impact it" because it was "natural".

As Popeye used to say "Well blow me down!"

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment HileTroy
HileTroy's picture

dubble post ops

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:35 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Unemployment up for 4th week in  row, yet the reports for 4 weeks have said its down....OMFG someone in Dept of Gubment Truthiness is lying??

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

It's "ALL" lies...............................................!

 

ALL of it!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:59 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

The Ministry of Truth is all out of truth.  Luckily, there is no shortage of lies.  Now just put any truth that you possess into the memory hole and it will find the proper incinerator. 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:37 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

I guess Gallop isn't gonna get any new govt contracts for a while. In the box with S&P Gallop!!!!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

There has been no let up in what I call The Downsizing of America. 

We still have more to come. It's a matter of policy to keep the forces going that are harming the economy. Just like Hoover

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Not a surprise to most of us here. We know the BS going on. Went to all confetti today for the first time in a while. Even I am getting nervous about miners. Physical and confetti, all I got.

Half this planet is scary now. What is next?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Virginia, there is no Santa Clause.  That fat man you saw wearing the red hat was a hallucination from the mushrooms you ate.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:02 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Don't worry about Virginia.  As long as her parents can find some shred of credit, on some card, they will find her a way to buy her shit that she doesn't need.  Now just set Virginia in front of a TV set and get on with your life.  The glowing box makes a great nanny.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Her parents score is below 600 now that their house has been foreclosed and their cars have been repoed.  Looks like they will have to steal her some gifts.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:43 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

let's see....shadow stats and gallup or bls? mmmm....i think i will go with the former and flush the latter or make snarky remarks about the bullshit labor statistics....

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:43 | Link to Comment distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

Can't wait to see the FED balance sheet this week.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:45 | Link to Comment buzlightening
buzlightening's picture

Why would the gov lie to us?Cha Ching & bendover for your free jiffy lube citizen.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:46 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

"Torture numbers, and they'll confess to anything"

quote: Gregg Easterbrook

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:03 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

A waterboarded statistic is a compliant statistic. 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:46 | Link to Comment tbd108
tbd108's picture

Lie like a drunken sailor? I was a drunken sailor long ago and I knew many others. We did like to spend money foolishly (but of course it was our own money) but where does this lying business come from? I am truly insulted personally and for all of my shipmates having been compared to the BLS! We are owed an apology!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

Now now. You probably lied to a lot of unattractive women who looked really pretty to a drunken sailor on liberty.

But there's no harm in upholding ancient traditions, is there? This BLS stuff is a hundred years from being an honored tradition.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:56 | Link to Comment tbd108
tbd108's picture

I never lied to cheap hookers. It was always an honest transaction. We gambled, drank to excess, fought with equally drunken Marines, etc. But we didn't lie!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment RobD
RobD's picture

I was also a drunken sailor and I never lied.....well except I didn't tell the girls in the PI my real name but that is cool right?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:23 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

tyler has switched to ether and wants to drive bernanke's convertible!

and, he was just shoved by an angry rotarian and is in no mood to aplogiZe.  L0L!!!

you have a point about being compared to the BLS, so maybe something like "lying like corzine under oath" would work better...  or "lying like a fuking bankster @ a hearing"

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 20:17 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

+1 Or put in less words,

"lying like corzine or a fuking bankster"

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

I agree!  This is an insult to drunken sailors everywhere!

I remember lying on a pier in Athens, a victim of real Ouzo.
I remember lying on a beach in New Jersey, a victim of too much beer and bourbon.

Other than that, I don't remember doing any lying while I was a drunken sailor.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:50 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Cant wait to see Liesman pontificate when the stats come out; he, of course will not mention Gallup.  But Ben and Timmie love him; he swallows.

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:54 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

This is only a surprise if you actually believe the government is in the business of fact gathering and not disinformation.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:57 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

They'll lie until they get caught. Then they'll lie about the lies until they get caught on that. Then they'll arrest a bunch of people for claiming the government lies to people to throw the dogs off the scent, and lie about the arrests. Then they'll claim that anyone not buying the lies is a traitor and Gitmo them.

And then they'll all be killed -- by a random meteor. Or something. Who knows. Then finally the lies will stop but not one second before.

So we have that going for us.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

"the NCAA is so mad at Kentucky, it will probably slap another two years' probation on Cleveland State."
-  Jerry Tarkanian

 

Doesn't that seem how it goes in this crazy financial world?  Goldman, JP, Morgan, etc. screw things up so badly that the authorities get so pissed that you and I will probably get audited. 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

It's not surprise, do we really need more retail jobs or service we cannot afford? I understand when we go for next war maybe we need some skilled workers to produce some arms, but we cannot afford another one, or maybe we can who knows?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:43 | Link to Comment Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

For the next war, all weapons/ammo will be made in China for both sides....don't expect any jobs here, that would be too much to ask.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment PhotonJohn
PhotonJohn's picture

I went to a party last night in Dallas and ran into an economist that worked for the BLS. I asked him how they have been so wrong since the start of the crisis. He went into full offensive mode saying that it is just about the numbers and they work for no adminstration. They can only do what they can with the numbers they receive from the systems. Nothing has changed.

 

I fell much better knowing that now!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment carguym14
carguym14's picture

Obama should just find this article supports terrorism and lock up those at Gallup indefinitely...........for the good of the country/national security/et cetera et cetera..........

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:30 | Link to Comment AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

We need a website that can keep track of names and addresses of all crooks (banksters, lawyers, mortagage brokers, govt. employees, local and national politicians, educators & lobbyists) who have perpetuated this massive financial fraud, so they can answer to the people for their crimes against humanity be tried and sentenced by a new unperverted court that follows the US Constitution, when the great reset ensues in the near future.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,[74] that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security"  US Constitution July 4, 1776

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 20:11 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Is this some kind of test?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:36 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

I've known a lot of drunken sailors and have been one myself.  No sea story I've ever heard could top the BLS tales, so please show some respect.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:45 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

frontrunning

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 20:07 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

I can't prove it; don't have much direct evidence; but strongly believe that the wheels are going to come off the bus in 2012.  Many, many small businesses have been hanging on and hoping, hoping for a turnaround.  There is still way too much fluff in our economy when you consider how up the fucking creek we are regarding savings for basic security, let alone retirement. 

Seems to me that the propagande machine has been cranked up to warp level lately....spewing all sorts of shit about how the economy is stabilizing and such.  I don't see it and I think it's all a last ditch effort to keep the doom from befalling our collective psyche.

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 22:14 | Link to Comment eric89074
eric89074's picture

The unemployed just need to find a good scam to run. I work in the fraud dept. for an online retailer and you wouldn't believe some of the shit people pull for big amounts.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 00:17 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Your USA Goverment keeps you's all paranoid about foriegn terrorist,while all the while,they are the Terrorist you's should rout out,and give them what they deserve.

Some good rope,and an oak tree.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 01:45 | Link to Comment Franktastic
Franktastic's picture

More unemployed people not buying stuff = even more unemployed people not buying stuff = and even more unemployed people not buying stuff...well you get the idea...domino's all falling down.

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