Game Over Berlusconi? Italian Anti-Crisis Bill Fails

Tyler Durden's picture

Europe's core, call it Germany, is now caught in a war of reverse attrition on three fronts: with Greece, with Italy, and as of today, with France. And unfortunately for the European monetary union, Europe, call it Germany, is losing. While the focus continues to be on G-Pap for the second day in a row following his shocking referendum announcement, the real diversion remains Italy, where the government is in as much of a state of chaos as that in Athens, and whose bonds, while not yet trading at Greek levels  (remember when the Greek 1 year hit 100% two months ago? Today it is at 225%... and tomorrow the two year will be at 100%), are far, far greater in amount, and the only thing preventing their collapse so far has been the ECB, whose monetizing assistance has been contingent on Italy passing and enforcing austerity measures to deal with its runaway debt to GDP of over 120%. Unfortunately, when BTPs open for trading in 7 hours, the ECB bid may not be there, or any bid for that matter, because as the WSJ reports, "Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on Wednesday failed to issue growth-boosting measures demanded by European Union authorities ahead of the Group of 20 summit, raising further doubts about the government's willingness to pass economic reforms aimed at restoring investor confidence in the country." Now that the ejection of Greece is virtually certain, perhaps it would be a prudent idea for what little remains of the healthy European core to kick out all the stragglers before everything becomes infected, and before French bonds trade at yields indicative of a sub-IG credit, thus ending the myth of any European union for good?

Here is what Bunga has achieved so far:

Mr. Berlusconi's cabinet late Wednesday approved a plan to sell state property, slash red tape and roll out infrastructure projects, according to people familiar with the matter, in a bid to cut Italy's €1.9 trillion ($2.6 trillion) debt and revive economic growth.

The plan, however, does not include measures to address the chronic structural weaknesses—such as heavy labor regulation and high taxes—that European officials and investors blame for Italy's economic stagnation, the people said. That means Mr. Berlusconi will head to the Group of 20 in Cannes, France, on Thursday without concrete measures to assuage the concerns of EU leaders.

We use the term achieve very loosely as he still has to pass it through parliament. And for now, all signs point to no:

It is also unclear whether Mr. Berlusconi can muster the political support to pass in parliament the meager plan approved Wednesday. Earlier in the day, Italian officials drafted a government decree that would have implemented the measures with immediate effect, said the people familiar with the matter. By the time Mr. Berlusconi's cabinet convened in the evening, however, officials had shelved the draft. Mr. Berlusconi's foot-dragging is likely to erode support for his government and increase tensions with Italy's head of state, President Giorgio Napolitano, who has called for immediate reforms and wields the power to dissolve parliament.

 

On Wednesday, Mr. Napolitano held meetings with lawmakers across the political spectrum to see if Mr. Berlusconi's majority has the political support to push tough reforms through parliament.

 

Analysts interpreted the meetings as a sign that Mr. Napolitano might throw his support behind lawmakers who have called for a government of technocrats to replace the premier.

A referendum for everyone: first in Greece, next, in Italy.

"The technical government option is what I think everyone, except Berlusconi, wants," said Duncan McDonnell, an political analyst at the Florence-based European University Institute.

Granted, Italy, unlike Greece, just may pull a deus ex. But bond investors will likely not stick around to find out.

Investors are shunning Italian bonds, concerned the country's rising borrowing costs will make it nearly impossible for it to pay down its debt, which is currently equivalent to 120% of GDP.

And to think it was precisely one week ago that Europe got bailed out. Here is how Italian banks have fared since the day we said only idiots will believe the "bailout" for more than a few hours.

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Long-John-Silver's picture

The game is falling apart.

Arius's picture

I am not sure how to interpret this, Euro positive or negative .... but again, what do i know right?

LongBalls's picture

Short the living crap out of the Euro, banks, China, real estate, building materials, etc.... That's how you interpret it.

Mactheknife's picture

Nailed it.  Been there, done that, got the t-shirt.

ratso's picture

The real money is in the T-shirts.

redpill's picture

There once was a PM named Sil
He loved to party but not pay the bill
His new law won't pass
Upset, he searched for a lass
And found a young girl named Jill

Manthong's picture

Nigel Farage for US President 2012.

If we can have a born British subject son of an alcoholic, vehicular homicidal Kenyan for president, we can have a respectable British subject M.E.P. for one as well.  

CrazyCooter's picture

EU Politicians seeking solutions ...

http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01401/goat-682_1401089a.jpg

I mean, after all, if I keep going up the tree, there must be more fruit!

Regards,

Cooter

DISCLOSURE: Oh, fuck. This is the top. How the fuck do I get down ... and why do all those goats down there have rifles ... (cue Iran invasion) ...

Michael's picture

I should be in my glory right now. I'm working on it.

Thank you Greece, and love you too Iceland.

The 5% who own or control 80% of everything will no longer be able to suck 80% of the peoples productivity and products we produce for themselves with their failed monetary system ponzi scheme any more.

That 5% will just have to live on whatever savings they will have left after the great world wide default... or get a job.

 

Michael's picture

Looks like the Greeks have a little more testicular fortitude than we gave them credit for.

Let me be the first to apologize for a nation.

Michael's picture

My biggest concern this evening is the loud drumbeat to start a war with Iran.

Great Britain has said it would join the war if the US does.

Israel would begin the attack and the rest would join in.

The outcome I foresee is that the entire strip of land west of the West Bank will be exploded into the Mediterranean.

There, nobody gets anything now. Satisfied?

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

can't speak for the mood in the us at the moment, but over in blighty, if it was to be announced you'd have more social unrest than we've probably seen in 100 years

...so long false flag terror??

WonderDawg's picture

Thanks, Cliff. Excellent. Love me some Nigel. If there were more like him, I might actually have some hope that we can turn things around. Unfortunately, I think we've gone off the cliff and are currently admiring the view.

homersimpson's picture

I show my support of your statement with a large helping of FAZ (despite the fact it got lit up today).

My t-shirt says "I own FAZ and the F stands for..."

Davalicious's picture

>My t-shirt says "I own FAZ and the F stands for..."

Are your counter parties going to be around in the event the-shit-hits-the-fan?

Gold bitchez!

Melin's picture

I'm not sure if the mechanics of this is even possible but if you're in EUO and the Euro goes to zero, you're cooked, no? 

J 457's picture

If only it was that easy, speaking for someone who went through October with short positions.  I'm still in and want my profit back. 

arkady's picture

It should be negative as this implies that at some point sooner or later European banks will be taking amssive losses on Italian debt.   There is really nothing positive that can come out of this.

 

Either there are haircuts and bailouts (postponed pain) or..

exiting of the euro and debts being entirely defaulted (immediate pain).

 

Europe thinks they can get something for nothing, but that is not possible.  They borrowed from the future to live in the present, the future is here and demanding to be paid.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

They borrowed from the future to live in the present, the future is here and demanding to be paid.

Also known as the white trash dream.

jeff montanye's picture

i tend to agree with the trash but the white seems too limiting.

or as i said to my dog tonight, your species is better than ours.

John_Coltrane's picture

Indeed, and ponder this,  dog is god spelled backwards.  Thus, I'm a confirmed doggist.

bobert's picture

Very positive in the long run.

A lot of risk in the mean time.

lairdwd's picture

Let's see how long those bitches can hold gold down with this.

paarsons's picture

If Italy and Greece shit the bed, then what you'll have is pretty bad deflation.

Gold doesn't thrive in a deflationary period.  You'll end up losing money.

But what do I know?

http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com

XitSam's picture

Nope. I'll have the same amount of gold as before the deflation.

mynhair's picture

If you don't play the paper, you have to work to buy more.

I hate 4 letter words, so fuk off.

WonderDawg's picture

I'll have more because I'll keep some dry powder for when it really goes on sale and then load up before the hyperinflation element of this cycle kicks in.

Yellowhoard's picture

The 1930's were quite deflationary and gold did quite well. In fact, gold miners were the best performing stocks, by far, during those years.

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I call one more mini correction, and no gold $2000 for a while...

Gold 1500 and silver $28-30...I think we'll have another look at those prices

Buck Johnson's picture

It sure is, CNBC was talking alot about Italy and that Italy is whats important right now.  Berlusconi won't get anything passed that will make any major changes.  To be honest sooner or later they are just going to say see ya and kick the Greeks and Italy and whomever on the edges out and just hope for the best and protect their banks.  This is truly falling apart.

tom a taxpayer's picture

Yep. It should soon dawn on the EU and the international banksters that they can not tolerate a Greek referendum. Period. 

Not in January. Not in December. Not in November.

Regardless of whether the Greeks vote Yes or No on the referendum, the precedent set by having a REFERENDUM will put a stake into the heart of the international bankster vampire.

If Greece sets a precedent by voting on the Faustian bargain, TPTB know the game is up, and the Genie is out of the bottle, 

As soon as the EU, IMF, and G-20 wake from their last hurrah in Cannes, they will realize the ONLY solution that serves their Masters of International Banksters, is to throw Greece out of the EU before the referendum. Same for Italy if Italy announces a referendum.

Yes, it will be bitter medicine, even for the banks, but the alternative of allowing referendums is sure death to EU and the banks.

 

The Limerick King's picture

 

 

The Euro is falling apart

The US will soon play its part

The can's hit the wall

Our system will fall

A turd always follows a fart.

CompassionateFascist's picture

Nonsense. "Here I sit all broken hearted, came to shit and merely farted."

Everyman's picture

Signed copy of Bold Fressh for YOU!

topcallingtroll's picture

The Italians are no better than the greeks. Italy dropping out of the euro is virtually guaranteed. You cannot stop a spendthrift wirh threats. You have to cut off their access to credit.

Spain and Portugal, surprisingly, seem to at least be trying.

Mark123's picture

 

There are good people in Spain, but sadly their system is completely corrupt.  I would imagine that when all this settles out there will be so much corruption uncovered it won't be funny.

 

Italy is just as corrupt from what I see, but they do have more of a balanced economy.  Spain went all in on the property bubble, so they have more pain a coming!

Seer's picture

The very nature of the system, and I'm talking about the Global System, IS corruption.  The corruption is of our sensibilities, it relies on us pretending that the world isn't finite.  If you fail on this point then all else is just made-up fantasy, and we know that fantasies are just that, fantasies.

mynhair's picture

Trying to get it hard enuf to stick the tip in ....

itstippy's picture

That's silly. 

Those of us following the action on the newswires or ZH for the past few months know that Greece has, at different times, received solid bailout commitments from Japan, China, the ECB, Brazil, Russia, Sudan, and Bangladesh.  Unnamed government officials from Dubai and Libya have also committed unlimited support from sovereign wealth funds, as has Prince Allaweed.  It's all been reported here on ZH as it was released on the major newswires. 

Greece has many, many funding options.  Italy would have the same.

MFL8240's picture

Yep and I hope it just keeps falling and along with it goes this Ponzi scheme.  Until this game ends there will never be a chance for a real recovery.

Seer's picture

I don't require any "hope," as it WILL come crashing down.  Simple math...

But, what is a "real recovery?"  Can you qualify what this would be?

Dapper Dan's picture

The Indian fat lady is singing,

BANGALORE, Nov 3 (Reuters) - India's service sector contracted for a second straight month in October, as new business grew at its weakest pace since May 2009, a survey showed on Thursday, dragged by sagging global demand and tight monetary policy.

Dapper Dan's picture

Lying is the Global language.

By Takeshi Awaji and Aya Takada

(Updates with Mainichi report in fourth paragraph.)

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo Electric Power Co. said the No. 2 reactor at its destroyed Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear station isn’t in a critical state after the company detected signs of nuclear fission.

The discovery of xenon, announced yesterday, at the plant was caused by “natural” nuclear fission, Junichi Matsumoto, a general manager at the company known as Tepco, said today at a press briefing in Tokyo.

That's right it's Natural, let me put that in quotes "natural"  as in "It's natural  to have nuclear fission occur in your childs sand box"

happens all the time.