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Game Over Berlusconi? Italian Anti-Crisis Bill Fails
Europe's core, call it Germany, is now caught in a war of reverse attrition on three fronts: with Greece, with Italy, and as of today, with France. And unfortunately for the European monetary union, Europe, call it Germany, is losing. While the focus continues to be on G-Pap for the second day in a row following his shocking referendum announcement, the real diversion remains Italy, where the government is in as much of a state of chaos as that in Athens, and whose bonds, while not yet trading at Greek levels (remember when the Greek 1 year hit 100% two months ago? Today it is at 225%... and tomorrow the two year will be at 100%), are far, far greater in amount, and the only thing preventing their collapse so far has been the ECB, whose monetizing assistance has been contingent on Italy passing and enforcing austerity measures to deal with its runaway debt to GDP of over 120%. Unfortunately, when BTPs open for trading in 7 hours, the ECB bid may not be there, or any bid for that matter, because as the WSJ reports, "Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on Wednesday failed to issue growth-boosting measures demanded by European Union authorities ahead of the Group of 20 summit, raising further doubts about the government's willingness to pass economic reforms aimed at restoring investor confidence in the country." Now that the ejection of Greece is virtually certain, perhaps it would be a prudent idea for what little remains of the healthy European core to kick out all the stragglers before everything becomes infected, and before French bonds trade at yields indicative of a sub-IG credit, thus ending the myth of any European union for good?
Here is what Bunga has achieved so far:
Mr. Berlusconi's cabinet late Wednesday approved a plan to sell state property, slash red tape and roll out infrastructure projects, according to people familiar with the matter, in a bid to cut Italy's €1.9 trillion ($2.6 trillion) debt and revive economic growth.
The plan, however, does not include measures to address the chronic structural weaknesses—such as heavy labor regulation and high taxes—that European officials and investors blame for Italy's economic stagnation, the people said. That means Mr. Berlusconi will head to the Group of 20 in Cannes, France, on Thursday without concrete measures to assuage the concerns of EU leaders.
We use the term achieve very loosely as he still has to pass it through parliament. And for now, all signs point to no:
It is also unclear whether Mr. Berlusconi can muster the political support to pass in parliament the meager plan approved Wednesday. Earlier in the day, Italian officials drafted a government decree that would have implemented the measures with immediate effect, said the people familiar with the matter. By the time Mr. Berlusconi's cabinet convened in the evening, however, officials had shelved the draft. Mr. Berlusconi's foot-dragging is likely to erode support for his government and increase tensions with Italy's head of state, President Giorgio Napolitano, who has called for immediate reforms and wields the power to dissolve parliament.
On Wednesday, Mr. Napolitano held meetings with lawmakers across the political spectrum to see if Mr. Berlusconi's majority has the political support to push tough reforms through parliament.
Analysts interpreted the meetings as a sign that Mr. Napolitano might throw his support behind lawmakers who have called for a government of technocrats to replace the premier.
A referendum for everyone: first in Greece, next, in Italy.
"The technical government option is what I think everyone, except Berlusconi, wants," said Duncan McDonnell, an political analyst at the Florence-based European University Institute.
Granted, Italy, unlike Greece, just may pull a deus ex. But bond investors will likely not stick around to find out.
Investors are shunning Italian bonds, concerned the country's rising borrowing costs will make it nearly impossible for it to pay down its debt, which is currently equivalent to 120% of GDP.
And to think it was precisely one week ago that Europe got bailed out. Here is how Italian banks have fared since the day we said only idiots will believe the "bailout" for more than a few hours.
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More popcorn?! FOR FUCK'S SAKE, NO MORE POPCORN!!
My tummy hurts.
Have a nice warm salted butter enema.
Is there any procedure for forcing a country out of the EU? Anything on how a country leaves voluntarily?
Is there any procedure for forcing a country out of the EU? : No.
Anything on how a country leaves voluntarily? : They just leave, but I think all EU countries have to vote to approve.
there is no easy way to leave...negotiated withdrawal is the closest thing to war
Not one single rule has been followed by any of them so far ... so, why follow the rules on withdrawal? Just withdraw.
SECEDE NOW!!
Have a public referendum ala Greece - keep watching.
The solution, the simple solution, alas, is peculating via, you know what, referendum. When politicians can not peculate any more, they find a scapegoat at large and call for referendum and cash out promptly. Oh, that's democracy? No wonder Greece eats dust, so will Italy, then France, then Germany?
The Democracy is dead! Long Live Demo-n-cracy.
Wonder how soon referendum will be banned pan-Europe!
If they only could get rid of all the debt that these countries owe the elitist bankers, they might have a chance of attracting unleveraged investors who are not out to rape them. Debt default is the only answer to eventual freedom.
Ummmm... who will you lend to them? After they fuked their current creditors... spent massive sums of someone elses capital... and expect to "retire" at 45 on pension? Really? Unleveraged investors won't touch-em for at least a generation.
Being forced into a do or die situation will make people work pretty hard. The whole thing gets torn down and starts over again. We might even learn from the past about leverage and derivatives and debt.
Ten years and a trillion tears sounds abouit right, maybe.
Good, the Italians can give France and the EU the digitus impudicus (impudent finger) salute.
All you "Game Over Bitchez!!" better be prepared to dump your gold.
If you were smart, you would be rooting for a resolution to the Europe crisis and huge equity rally.
That is the only way gold is going to go up.
Shorting Ag, thank you very much for your untimely advice.
Like 6 hrs ago.
Let me guess. You got stopped out around 6 this morning?
I am still in accumulation mode. I want gold to go down.
And if I were buying equities, I would also want them to go down.
There is no solution, likewise USA.
There only path forward is to create ever increasing amounts of debt and deficit. Their only hope is for GDP growth to fix deficits but that aint going to happen anywhere soon enough and is currently in reverse.
The more money printing greater the number of fiatscos per Oz gold.
They could simply default on everything and crash the entire global system with unknown consequences, in which case you would want to hold gold.
It is plain stupidity given the known knowns, and the known unknowns to not hold some portion of gold.
You are brave aren't you?
Any guarantees tonight? ;-)
I'll guarantee you continued volatility in equities for the near future.
hah, 'up', as in fiat dollars :)
European or American? I am definitely pretty sanquine about the market going into year end now--and as such don't disagree with your view on gold here in the USA. But how about if you're Sudden Debt? If the euro totally tanks that gold could be buying...well, you name it! "A sudden return of sovereign currencies en toto?" Whoa!
ya, "hope" is such a great investment tool....
You go with that, Robo- cold, hard, calculating begging- Gecko would be so proud.....
Robo, your Lulu-Netflix world is falling apart around you and you still bash the true God of real money?
Blasphemy I say!
To Robo it all comes down to who youre 'rootin' for...he's a high school kid.
What's the matter robo? Fed having trouble getting anybody in the mediteranean to lube up their asshole and welcome the navy into town.
Burlesqueseconi is the Anti-Christ?
Thought ODummer was.
Frickin playbills....
+ 1
It was precisely one week ago the stupid dog (stock market) rallied ~400 Dow points (naive idiots like Najarians and Ron Insana were chasing stocks) on fantasy Europe was bailed out by fantasy empty box (EFSF).
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/EFSF-box.png
It's only 100 points down and 9:2ish pm, gees, quit that joint already will 'ya?!?!
If this shit really tanks we all know what the FEDSTER BANCHERO will do, this is the usual yoyo,everyone teeth in the glass and off to sleep :)))!
Crack then crumble then it gets dusty
What is driving futures tonight?
Nice pump n dump! Pump it day hours, drop it like its hot in futures, man thats hillarious.
The virus is airborne....
I remember my Dad telling me about the great depression. He said all he could recall was idiot politicians and business leaders saying it was all about confidence. All they needed was more confidence to get the economy going like the good old days.
Same BS today. America is scarred with cheap shopping malls, housing estates that make trailer parks look good, fast food restaurants, car lots, and cars, cars and more cars. None of these things we have created have any real economic value....but if we just have confidence then we can keep the party going.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMS2uMUQNnQ
Good luck with that.
I agree. Everything is about "growth". Even though 2002-2007 was a mirage built on a house of cards. If only........
Oddly it was only a War that brought back that confidence.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=kXCOnpJiSCc
man, just when the all cleared was sounded!
Maybe simply having confidence in ones individual ability to strive and endure. After the depression and WW2, Americans had those qualities in spades.
Also had oil in spades, not to mention command over indsutry (thanks to a lack of competition).
Actually, automobiles have created much of America. Period.
Houses on the other hand, have destroyed much of America.
At least foodstamps are not a common way of life in Italy , like it is in the US. To even have the impudence to attack Italy when the US has had banks imploding , subprime scams, California going bust etc etc is quite simply farcical . Government debt is high but had the economy not been hijacked by anglo saxon banking incompetence then the primary surplus that had been achieved in the last few years and is being achieved would have at least eventually started to bring debt down vs GDP.It is infact stable at the moment. Look at the average Italian's savings and compare that to the UK or US. Simply no match. Add debt govvy debt to private and you'll see a stonking different picture. Italy will get out of trouble eventually once a new leadership is eventually found.But at least Italians will still enjoy a beautiful country, great food, great art, great design etc. whilst in the US of Mexico you'll be living in your trailers, becoming more and more obese , you'll continue to fight every mickey mouse tribe in some remote mountain range and still get wooped. The american dream indeed. 1% owns a lot the rest get their fine dining at Mcdos and KFCs. Living the dream dude
The northern Italians work their butts off. The opportunities are not so good in the south of Italy. Therein lies the rub.
There has been a lot of borrowing to restore the many (over 20,000 at last count) hill towns to their former glory. Probably too much, too soon, especially with the negative birth rate in Italy.
Vitarie Fumare, or some such.
when does eur/swissie come back into play for another retest of 1.20?
this evening?
It's such a hoot watching Greece and Italy... it's gonna be pretty epic when it happens to Japan or America.
Liquidation trade happening on gold, USD/UST's bid
Futures continue to drop.
Cummulative effects of trouble in Europe and/or a specific, driving issue?
Are the dominos about ready to fall?
who would have thought that europe mattered
Jim Willie predicted all this two years ago.
Look, it's just as plausible that Barack Obama has an FDR moment and does a joint session announcing that just like the US pulled Europe's chips out of the fire twice last century, we need to step up to the plate and do it again.
The Fed will print 5 trillion and Obama will announce a new European stabilization fund. Then we're back off to the races again for another year until the ultimate implosion to end all implosions in 2013.
It's not game over until it's game over, and these clowns may very well be able to keep it going for quite some time longer.
just when you think the can can't possibly be kicked any further... it usually does get kicked again. exhibit A? US debt ceiling, remember when that was supposed to end the world?
proceed with caution. good luck and goodnight.
Oh sh*t AUD 1.02 handle about to go, this is tight. When European opens money on the PIIGS yields are blown out to default levels against namely the 10yr. If the DAX hits 4% neg tonight, you can guarantee it.
Get long chump. Off to lunch I go.
Caio, arrivederci and pound sand German and French dudes!
Bankers don't create wealth. They lend other people's wealth, and get a fee for doing it.
The EMU is simply a way for bankers to lend the wealth of responsible productive nations to irresponsible unproductive nations, earning a fee for doing it.
We're approaching a time where there's no more wealth to lend. Bankers have already lent France & Germany's present wealth plus the next generation's wealth to PIIGS nations ...and made lots of money for themselves in the process.
France & Germany are tapped out. Any further debt guarantees will destroy their respective credit ratings. This is why the EFSF can't raise any money. France & Germany won't guarantee the bonds they want to issue, and nobody else will either.
Even a measly 3 billion Euro EFSF bond issue was cancelled before it went bidless. And they're going to raise 1 trillion Euros? I don't think so.
The EMU game is over folks. And yes, those PIIGS nations are going to get away with hundreds of billions of Euros of borrowed wealth that will be defaulted on and never paid back.
Unless a new monetary system comes along that supersedes the Euro, ECB, EMU, etc.
And such a monetary system is coming along. The Vatican and Germany are behind it.
And yes Germany will be paid back. Not with money. With sovereign authority over all Europe.
It will be the 4th Reich. Not by invasion and occupation this time. But by Vatican decree. Other European nations pay off their debt to Germany immediately or surrender their sovereignty to Germany.
Euro-bankers will be kicked to the curb. Euro, EMU, ECB, EFSF, etc, will be dissolved.
The Vatican will run the show. Germany will be the political / military arm of it.
...sigh... remind me again...my memory isn't what it once was... why does Germany want them? Do they have anything of value other than aging and lazy populations? Oops...maybe that's the US... rats... there I go again...
Without markets, all that automated German manufacturing infrastructure is kaput. It's a merry-go-round that can't stop without serious consequences. That's why they "need" them.
down is the new up bitchez...i'll see you at 1080...
C yer 1080, and lower you 60.
'Course I would close at 1074.
Geez, the World is still here. Can't you dips just die?
Me, myself, and I are perfectly positioned to make a killing here if you all would just go away.
Forever.
You are not needed or wanted.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-KH2WI4Gzw
The news of the day is the fact that now the EFSF 2021 notes issued in June this year are being bid at +162 bps over German 10yr bund....this is up from when they were issued at +51 bps over German 10yr bunds. The "AAA" EFSF bonds are now trading like BBB corporates. Oh, and if people read the amended prospectus they would know that the EFSF is only authorized to issue 55 billion euros of bonds and needs "approval" to raise that statutory limit, meaning the Germans can vote against raising that runaway tab at any time. Oh, and Japan bought 20% of the prior EFSF deals and now they are spending money on this little thing called rebuilding the country. Oh and this doesn't matter to stocks because they can't see through those QE blinders they have on.
Is it any wonder the bonds are already trading BBB? EFSF bonds are backed by EU member states according to each’s relative paid in capital at the ECB. Thus, a substantial portion of these bonds are backed by the combined financial wherewithal and credibility of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Funds received from the bond sales go to help the weakest governments make interest payments on the sovereign debt these countries already cannot afford to service. Twenty percent of the seasoned issues were bought by Japan, a nation with a government debt/GDP of nearly 250% and whose total yearly savings and total corporate profits are less than new Japanese Government yearly credit requirements. Now the ECB is courting China, a country who is “flush” with FX reserves mostly because it prints new yuan in exchange for its corporations’ export revenues, revenues that might well represent a loss by the exporting company, and which most certainly explain why China‘s monetary aggregate growth is the envy of any Fed Governor. What could possibly go wrong?
So what will another European look like? Beer bottle artillery and wine bottle rockets?
Liberals, this song is for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-oQ5KwRSMU&feature=fvwrel
what is with your infatuation with liberals, anyway?
seriously, who cares?
My sentiments about the US Goobermint:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QY1MOxcvtM
My other sentiments:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJn9Acwn17Q&NR=1
In case you dicks haven't figured it out yet, UTube stuff is not forever unless you grab it yourself. Try SourceForge.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ura2VLgx6Pk&feature=related
Got Silver?
When I did my first research on silver in 2004, the one conclusion I came to was that eventually there would be a shortage. I think it is inevitable. Why? The stuff is so versatile. You can use it in so many products. Now they are using it as an anti-bacterial agent. And just about every new technology uses it: wind turbines, solar panels, electric cars, you name it.
Even if investors go away, there will be a shortage at some point. But investors are lining up for silver and I don't think they are going to stop.
So, the question is how high will silver prices go once a shortage hits? I think $100 is a conservative estimate and $500 a bit on the optimistic side. It will likely be somewhere in the middle of that range.
The next question is how do you profit from this coming escalation in prices? Well, of course the smart thing is to get some physical and just hold it.
But then there are mining companies. How will they do at $100 and $200 silver. My guess is very well.
Also, no one is currently in silver mining companies. That means there is a big chance a lot of people will get interested at some point. And that my friends is what you call a mania.
Will we get it? My compass/gut says yes. I just hope my current stocks are the ones that benefit. Of course, I'm big on SIL. I think that stock will take off in a mania market. I have an investment in it, and I highly recommend it to friends and family members.
I also think that we could have a crash in stocks in the next 12 months and SIL could drop by 50%. But I don't think it will stay down long and that it will be a fantastic buying opportunity, much like late 2008 when stocks bottomed (many were down 70% or more).
But even if you invest today and watch yourself take a big hit when the crash comes, the odds are very good we will bounce off that bottom and go much higher (gold and silver mining stocks that is).
My take is to keep your powder dry and wait for the bottom. But to buy physical today each month and keep collecting it on the dips (now is a dip at $33).
www.goldsilverdata.com
uh, is it bad when all those squiggly colored lines are going down?
Well there is still the Neuro
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"The plan, however, does not include measures to address the chronic structural weaknesses—such as heavy labor regulation and high taxes—that European officials and investors blame for Italy's economic stagnation, the people said."
Damn them. Those Tea Party people are everywhere:) Bunga Bunga Obama can't catch a break, even in socialist Europe:)))))
Signore Burlesquoni is fulla baloney ! He can't solve the riddle.....so he will just fiddle..... while his beloved Roma..... slips into a coma ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Circus Maximus
The BEST video on all of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzrpqkoF3rU&feature=youtu.be
Oops, this is the one I was intending:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyePCRkq620&feature=related
Humpty Dumpty sedeva [sic] su un muro,
Humpti Dumpti [sic] ha avuto un grande caduta;
Sessanta uomini e sessanta di più,
Non è possibile luogo Humpty Dumpty come era prima
No amount of poltical posturing will solve this, the people want out of this insane asylum.
is everbody in, is eveybody in ... let the games begin
http://capital3x.com/think-tank/return-of-fear-in-nov/
"Return of Fear in Nov" by C3X
After calling spot on in September (Bloody September) and October (October Rally), this time back with the next update and Premium trades.
Yep. Reality damn, what to do? Euro at parity can only be good for Europe, but explain that to the failing bank (ECB). Perhaps now that Mr Big Ego Trichet is gone, they will see some sense??
Italian bund spread already back at over 442 points...and going up fast. If it breaks 450, kaboooooooom.
Jean-Claude Junker says they are prepared for a Greek exit from Euro.
Greece cannot stay in euro zone at any price: Junckerhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/us-eurozone-greece-juncker-idU...
the famous plan B that Eurocrats refused to even consider despite Nigel Farage's warnings.
It's ALMOST over... Italy's bund spread has now broken 450... now at 456... if it closes above 450, the margin requirements on Italy's debt will be raised, meaning all banks in Europe will be screwed.
Already at 458 points, new all time record.
Edit again : almost 460!
Like this wasn't planned. They will "accidentally" mess things up in Europe and then when everybody is in a world of pain they will announce that a new federal Europe will be born. Make no mistake about it. People themselves will demand this to get any kind of relief.
Bunga-lira is coming!! But it only pays for underage hookers!
Seems the markets love all this bad news. ES, CL etc sold off over night but are going straight up since European markets opened. WTF?
Another song that kinda says it all: (er ... turn it up)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=uEjZhU7DAfc
Walking To Babylon - The Angels
Wrapped in a bloody sheet The squalling brat is carried onto the balcony and shown to the people with a ringing of bells
And it was war ... And it had a thousand fathers
Now there's blood on the streets again
When the sun goes down,
You walk the streets
Live in shadows
Feel no peace
Lock the back doors
Close your eyes
You seen it all before
You know it's a sin
Say it's a sin!
People say it's the law
Who knows why
When the bullets fly
The beggars beg for more
(Chorus)
You know I'm walking to Babylon
Walking to Babylon (x3)
Talk black priest says:
"Let us pray"
Bad man comes for wicked ways
Take a firm hold
Steel your nerves
Don't listen anymore
You know it's a sin
Say it's sin!
People say it's the law
Who knows why when the bullets fly
The beggars beg for more
You know I'm walking to Babylon
Walking to Babylon (x3)
When the time had come she withdrew into her innermost chambers and surrounded herself with doctors and soothsayers
In the streets the people gathered from morning until night with empty stomachs
Then great Mabel vomited and it sounded like "freedom"
And she coughed and it sounded like "justice"
And there's blood on the streets again!
Crooked Greek and Italians, are laughing at the EU, their real economies are off the books. Hence, they could give a spit about defaulting. The bond vigilantes are going to get caught with their pants down. This all spells trouble for Sarkozy and the French banks who hold most of the Italian govt issued debt. Economic data that comes out of Italy is notoriously lousy and hard to get this is not new.