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Game Over? Senior IMF Official - "I Expect A Hard Greek Default This Year"
While the US was panicking over a double zero jobs report, things in Europe just fell off a cliff. As both the WSJ and Reuters report, it seems that the second Greek bailout, following repeated and consistent disappointments by Greece which has resolutely refused to comply with the terms of its fiscal austerity program, has just collapsed.And with the US closed on Monday: long a counterbalance to European risk pessimism, this week (especially with the news fro the latest FHFA onslaught against global banks) may just be the one that "it" all comes to a head. But back to Europe, and more specifically Greece, which it now appears is doomed. "I expect a hard default definitely before March, maybe this year, and it could come with this program review," said a senior IMF economist who is keeping close tabs on the situation. "The chances for a second program are slim." It is not only Greece - Italy also thought it would sneak by with getting quid pro no and continue leeching off of Europe, or specifically Germany, indefinitely, at least until the ECB said that absent Berlusconi taking austerity seriously that implicit ECB support for Italian bonds would be yanked, sending the second most indebted country in the world into a toxic debt tailspin. And so it comes that after 2 years of waffling, Europe finally realizes that the piper always eventually gets paid. Alas, it is now far too late.
Talks over new bailout funds for Greece were suspended Friday amid disagreements over how to fill a government-deficit gap that once again is veering off track, raising doubts about the country's future access to finance and triggering renewed nervousness in financial markets across Europe.
The suspension pushed yields on Greek government debt to levels indicating that investors see a default by Athens soon as a near certainty: Interest rates on one-year paper blew out past 70% and two-year yields rose close to 50%.
The continent's stock markets also retreated, with the French market down 3.6% and the German market down 3.4%.
The suspension of the talks in Athens between the government and a group of officials representing the providers of Greece's bailout cash came, officials said, amid a dispute about how to address new gaps opening up in the government budget deficit.
"The Greek side insisted the missed targets are the result of the recession. The troika said recession played a part, but Greece basically didn't keep up with its commitments, so more measures will be needed to make up for the lost ground," said a person with direct knowledge of the talks.
"There is a clear disagreement that can't be bridged today," the person added.
Will it be bridged in mid-September, and is a market and EURUSD crash all that will take, as has been the case constantly? We will find out soon, although it increasingly appears improbable...
"I expect a hard default definitely before March, maybe this year, and it could come with this program review," said a senior IMF economist who is keeping close tabs on the situation. "The chances for a second program are slim."
Failure of Greece to meet its targets, growing reluctance by some euro members to continue lending and the fact that private-sector participation in a second bailout won't significantly alter Greece's debt profile are the primary factors, the IMF official said.
It gets worse: as Reuters confirms, the political turmoil has already spread to Germany, where all that is needed for wholesale conflagration that will sweep Merkel out of the cabinet is a tiny spark. This may just have been it:
Christian Lindner, general secretary of the Free Democrats, (FDP) junior coalition partners in Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right government, said Athens was endangering European solidarity.
"The breakdown of talks between the Troika and Greece is a blow to the stability of the euro," he said at a news conference in Berlin.
Referring to Greece's failure to meet deficit targets set in exchange for a second bailout package, Lindner said Athens was shirking responsibilities to which it had agreed.
"This is not about non-binding statements of intent, but contractually secured reciprocity for the emergency loans," he said. "We insist these agreements are observed."
Goodbye Greece:
Separately, senior FDP official Hermann Otto Solms, a vice-president of the Bundestag and an economy committee member in parliament said since Greece could not handle its debt problem and it should consider leaving the euro.
"It should be considered whether a restructuring and exit from the euro would offer better perspectives for the currency union and Greece itself," he told Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.
The pro-business FDP styles itself as a defender of the German taxpayer, a stance Lindner reiterated in his statement over Greece.
"Taxpayers in Northern Europe and especially Germany cannot accept inability or reluctance. In the eyes of the FDP, Greece must reaffirm its will for stability and reform."
Alas, a Greek departure from the Eurozone, which now seems inevitable, will have a major impact on Europe's financial institutions. This is, however, not news to the market, which over the past few days, has sent not only the Libor-OIS spread to 70.6 bps (up 5bps overnight), or its widest level since April 2009, but has pushed Libor higher for 28 consecutive days - the longest stretch sine 2005, to its highest since August 19, 2010. Furthermore, the spread between the minimum and maximum 3 month USD Libor as self-reported to the British Banker Association, has hit a 2011 wide.
So is the worst bank some derelict husk of toxic assets like Barclays and RBS? Yes... RBS is certainly #2 in the top three highest reported Libors, or institutions that find it most difficult to procure USD funding. So who are the other two most troubled banks: SocGen? BNP? Bank of America? Nope...
That's right: CSFB and UBS. It appears that in a parody of Biblical allegory, the first shall indeed be last, as what was once a bastion of liquidity and solvency, Switzerland and its indomitable banks, is the first to topple should Greece finally be kicked out.
And should the two biggest Swiss indeed banks go out with either a bang or a whimper, then, well, all bets are off.
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Good one, just be careful of high volatility drag on ETFs, especially leveraged short ETFs. The way the MIB hops up and down 3-6% on a daily basis, it's a serious problem for a passive strategy of holding your short over a period of weeks or months. They're much better for active short-term trading.
Anyone who's traded options recognizes this "dark secret" of leveraged ETF's for what it is. Simple time and volatility premium. What, you expected to get the leverage for free?
Levered ETF's get a bad rap and are really quite handy.
I love em but they're like taking a pit bull for a walk, you don't take him off the leash.
They increased VAT on restaurants from 13% to 23%!!! The restaurants say they won't pay.
"Our members voted at an extraordinary general assembly not to pay the increase because it will drive many establishments out of business," said the PanHellenic Federation of Restaurants and Related Professions, representing more than 15,000 hospitality businesses.
http://www.naturalnews.com/news_000372_Restaurants_Greece_VAT.html
It's gonna be great Christmas in Europe and especially Greece.
HO ! HO ! HO ! Merrry Christmas. Yes, that 's a funny one alright.
"Spain can´t be compared to Greece imo. Their debt/gdp is lower than Germany´s"
Look under the carpet where the Spanish put all their rotten debts...
The spanish are just as fraudulent and corrupt as the greeks. Every business large and small has two sets of books. So does every government entity
"Their debt/gdp is lower than Germany´s"
well these terminologies sound good..but isn't the cash flows that matter most???
http://ampedstatus.org/full-blown-civil-war-erupts-on-wall-street-as-rea...
FHA Files a $196 Billion Lawsuit Against 17 Banks
JPMorgan Chase & Co. – $33 billion
JPM shareprice = $34.63
silver = $43.25
Negative JPM:SILVER ratio on Tuesday = Day 36
:-)
No real reason buy I keep silver just above JPM on my ticker. Fun to see :)
there must be a lot of other people doing so so it seems :)
Italy panics and pulls off the curtain behind which stands the "independent, modern central bank" butt naked.
At this point it seems it's time to put an end to this miserable political excercise, Shangri La, called eurozone.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-03/italy-s-frattini-rules-out-end-...
What happens when the Fed stops buying U.S. notes? Anyone have any links to the endgame? I know, I know, interest rate rise, inflation, implosion. But anyone got a good link on the dominoe-like progression of the U.S. debt endgame? Would like a nice Saturday afternoon read, in preparation for getting some locally grown farmer's market vegetables and steaks tomorrow.
I expect you realize the Fed will not stop buying US debt. They will also be buying EU debt, It suits their current mission, devalue the dollar until the US is a net exporter. Imagine how much pain that is going to take. There will be 30 million very, very angry Americans, easily.
Where did this official come up with the great idea that Greek papaer was toast.Maybe from the 2 year at over %60.The problem with looking at any short term indicator of risk like libor is that all of a sudden change can happen .Just like the US with rates at all time lows .the default by by the uSA will happen very quickly .Remeber is Dec,2009 Greek paper was trading close to that of the Germans
Before this is over every single bank in Europe will have to rescued.If the sovereigns decide to only guarantte the depositors and not the creditor and shareholders then,the strongest countries will survive.If they do not then the debt of all Eurpoean sovereigns will go the way of the Greeks.Shortly therafter there will a run on the debt of the US .The Fed will have used up its ammunition stupidly propping up Wall St. and will be impotent to stop this.And forget about hyperinfalting.If there is any inkling that Helicopter Ben will drop money from the sky.,Congress will put the Fed on a very short leash.Look for US interest rates to shoot up exponetially when this happens.(from just above 0 to at least 20 or 30 %.
We are in the most dangerous time in the history of western civilization,outside of WW2.Be prepared or else you will financially perish.And gold very well might not be a hedge against this.I would expect the government to issue another 6102 to force citizens to turn in their gold at at a very low price.
Gold confiscation will never happen--it's rabblerousing, not thought.
What are they going to do? House-to-house searches? Get real!
I concur, GF, but you can kiss IRAs, 401Ks, and anything of value in safe deposit boxes goodbye.
I'm wondering if the banks will reopen Tuesday. I'd give it a 10% chance that they won't at this point. That could drastically change Monday depending on what happens in Asia & Europe.
DuckHook, that's a scary ass post.
I agree, it is a dangerous time in history- maybe MORE dangerous than 1941.
The banksters and their enablers are out of ammo, and the dike is leaking like a seive. Soon it will collapse like the levees in NOLA, and only those prepared for the deluge will escape. Since 60+% are on some form of assistance, and 90+% are ignorant, only a few will make it out.
Glad I took Ron Paul's advice in 2000 and bought gold. It's not a lot, just a few hundredK now, but it'll be a fortune soon. The extra hundredK my grandpa left me (about 100 lbs of pre-1963 US coins) should help me out!
Thanks granddad!
(funny, I've dreamt of him twice in the last week, and he's been dead 15+ years. Maybe he's trying to tell me something)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPYLJoq_40Y
OPSEC, ring any bells for you DICK?
I agree with most of that, but I do not believe congress will put the Fed on a leash. On the contrary, they will be running for cover. They always, always duck the hard decisions, which is why the courts rule more and more of American life. When the crisis hits, they'll give the Fed a completely free hand. They'll wait to see which way the wind is blowing, then they'll decide what position to take and where to point the congressional finger of blame.
So - as an investor - I think this means hyper-inflation no matter what. But interet rates will not rise. The Fed will continue to purchase debt as gold passes $2000 and $3000. If we had a current account surplus and reasonable debt levels we could have another Paul Volcker, but we can't.
"Look for US interest rates to shoot up exponetially when this happens.(from just above 0 to at least 20 or 30 %."
If this happens, ala Volcker, what would PMs be worth?
This is EXACTLY what America needs. The ability to earn % on saved money. 20% interest would be fantastic.
What would happen to PM's???? Gold - 800 and Silver $8.00 of course.
Um, you might have left out a few other things.
Umm, complete ponzi collapse for $500 and the daily double Alex..
But they wouldn't even bother with Silver; which is too small a market for them; be difficult to "turn in" Silver which had never been in the US in the first place. Don't you think?
It's not just Swiss or European banks that will get slammed hard when this whole Eurozone experiment starts to unravel, Greece is just the tip of the iceberg (unraveling very soon from the looks of it). Right now nobody knows for sure how many counterparties (banks) will get burned in the process thru CDS sloshing around the globe to cover these toxic Eurodebts. Once this Eurozone contagion starts to spread its nasty financial radioactive fallout watch out, it will make the Lehman meltdown in 2008 look like a picnic. Is this what Karl Marx warned us about, 90+ years ago, about Capitalism's eventual self-destruction? Makes one wonder.
Naah.
This is socialism's self destruction.
In hard times the hard right gets into power and there is no sympathy for people too lazy or unwilling to pull their own weight.
19th century laisez fare capitalism, bitchez, coming to a europe near you!
I think this scene from Aliens sums it up exactly
Game Over Man, GAME OVER!
We get to wonder if the people in governments that got paid to put the planet where it is are going to allow the default that is the only thing that saves the people they claim to represent. Since admitting they were wrong is not possible, or doing anything that goes against their master is unthinkable, and that they are planning on retiring when the offshore account gets a little bigger and they get that passport from the country they helped rape the US taxpayer, you have the answer.
Maybe the folks at ZH aren't as easily fooled as religiosaurs or hopiumeaters, EarlGraybaggers, and every other non descriptive ism ever created that keeps trying to put a thinking person in a bag that doesn't fit.
It's only about the button marked "panic". After you hit it, it says "chaos". What they don't tell you is that it is on a timer and they don't know where it is any more because it got sold in a CDS.
No mention of this on CNBC.com, so I'll assume this must not be important. They do however have a story "Robocleaners, Tweeting Refrigerators: the Future Home" on the front page.
Maybe one day if ZH tries hard enough, they can achieve the same level of journalistic substance and integrity as CNBC. If Tyler just learns the phrases "we're off the lows" and "better than expected" and mindlessly repeats them ad nauseam - ZH will be half way there...
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You best clean your cookies. Guess your wife has been looking for a new refrigerator & home.
@HD...My take on it is that there's more than one Tyler Durden (which is a pseudonym to begin with) and they work for different financial type companies, but I have no confirmation on this. When Nouriel Roubini gave a party recently, 33 Tyler Durdens showed up at his digs, so go figure.
I wonder how long it will take the protest contagion to reach our fair shores?
Israelis hold renewed mass protests over living cost
and
Scuffles amid protests against far-right march in German cityand
EDL march halted by police as far-right leader is arrestedmartial law is coming bitchez!
I stay here and read all the negative articles about the usa.
Where are all our european readers? Do they only come by and make negative comments about the usa when times are bad for us?
I would like to hear more european comments, particularly how europe is going to safely navigate this one and save their socialism they seem to be so proud of.
Just waiting for the Great Collapse... There is nothing to say. The question is who is gonna fall first ( and be consider like responsable by the sheeps), USA or EU?
Don't forget, a "black sawn" in Japan, China, Russia or Brazil could be the Franz Ferdinand.
The EU & US are in deep shit, but the rest of the world is down in the sewer with us.
The U.S. Still has control of many levers and I do not think it will be the first to go, even if it's real economy is the most hollowed out. While the Euro joint money structure is full of obvious problems, my observation is that many European countries appear to have a more functional real economy than the U.S. The reserve currency status of the dollar led to a greater weakening of the U.S. economy with so much of it going towards what will soon be understood to be relatively unimportant services. One look at the current account balance and you can see that on a real economy basis, the standard of living in the U.S has to drop by at least half. Even Italy funds much of it's own debt ( citizens holding the bonds), in comparison to the U.S., which borrows or monetizes to cover debt.
Bottom line - and just opinion based on my personal observations and analysis - is that Europe may suffer convulsions in a system breakdown, but will recover much more quickly than the U.S. The European living system is simply more practical by necessity, with mass transportation, more locally grown food, more industry, etc. The U.S. is a bit like the kid that was given too much by his rich parents and so never learned to be lean and practical. Learning those lessons in retrospect is never fun.
all right i'll bite on this one. obviously: the US standard of living has already dropped by half and Europe has to play catch up is my retort. The idea of a "European recovery coming first" is nice--but "Europe" has never existed in the first place...nor does it this time either. Which of course is not...no wait..it is EXACTLY to disparage the concept. It's been tried by every lunatic of the 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th centuries--and thank God it will fail this time as well. The USA is very good at one thing: just being their when you're suppose to be. Would it be wrong if the USA decided to get something for itself? Is it already?
Brussels, 31 August 2011
Final assessment of the 6th Environment Action Programme shows progress in environment policy – but with shortfalls in implementation
You cannot afford your day to day debt obligations. Your union is stealing money to those who put money aside to retire. Then they create a new crisis on a policy written in 2002 and ask peasants like yourself to make another sacrifice. Let's take a dollar and cents look on your parliament light bulb mandate..
Energy-saving light bulbs leap in price
Leap in price?.. But, but.. it was to help the environment and shave away wasteful carbon footprint emissions. Hahahahahaha
You where bamboozled
Some problems have no solutions, only outcomes.
This is going to play out over several years. Lets see where things stand in 2015. I just hope the Earth isn't a smoking ember by then.
Dupe Removed
a nice tidbit in the WSJ article
"Greece has failed to reach its targets on raising revenue through privatization of state assets, and even neglected to achieve simple bureaucratic requirements, according to people familiar with the matter."
you don't say !
But they must have seriously pissed off the IMF this time to get the IMF to publish the explicit "hard default" statement in an organ like the WSJ. That should make Tree-shay wish he was handing over to Dragg-hee sooner than Nov 1st.
For those blaming Greece and wishing them failure, read these..
http://germanywatch.blogspot.com/2011/08/is-germany-purposely-spooking-markets.html
http://germanywatch.blogspot.com/2011/08/siemens-at-it-again.html
I would suggest going all in.. Gather your friends, your family or any homeless character who can fence his government check onto euro bucks.
Greece: 1 -2 yr Bond
Portugal: 5-10 yr Bond.
You can't lose or can you?
Audi 2010 Green Car Super Bowl Commercial
What truly disgusts me is how the Greek government (at least the ruling party) are "in" on the stereotypes. The ruling party is one of two parties that over the decades has created and lied about the finances. The Prime Minister is the son of a PM and grandson of a PM and he has been in the government for decades. The major players in his party have been there for a long time. Yet they have convinced the foreign media that they are honest and it is all the fault of the lying Greek people. When the review of the budget by a Greek commission came out highly critical what was the response by the government that appointed them?-- Oh, the Greeks aren't used to handling numbers. They're no good at this... Sorry to digress. Thanks for the links. I am sick of the stereotypes and sick of the Greek government and hope it falls soon.
Obama's out back shootin' some hoops...
Awesome graphs.
Gee, who would have thought that firing public employees and cutting salaries and pensions by 30% would be bad for the economy? That people wouldn't have money anymore and stores would close? Yeah, right, Troika, Greece just didn't "implement" the genius Troika policies correctly. Oh, well, I guess now Troika will have to take it assets. America, as I understand it, was quick to buy rights for oil exploration in the Aegean. They all must smell oil there.
The money Greece is getting in its supposed bailout isn't even going to the people but to the banksters. The people don't even want a bailout. I don't know why they can't just get rid of this evil Greek government (whose PM was born in the US and is half-American) and default.
So... why again isn't Greece telling the EU to go screw themselves and kick all these bastards out while returning to their own currency?
Ah yes, Greece's own economy has been destroyed when they entered the EU. Big US-UK-German-French corporations bought everything on the cheap. Greeks can now only import most of their stuff or buy from foreign corporations inside their own country. (and this is true for most of the EU countries)
The only way at this point you can get out of the EU...
- Have patriotic leaders who aren't afraid of being killed
- Nationalize foreign corporations on your soil that bought your old economy on the cheap
- Return back to your own currency
Of course the only way that happens is if...
- People are ready to take a big hit in the economy...
- If they don't get assassinated/invaded...
Being in the EU is like being in the mafia... once you enter, you can never leave or they'll kill you and if you don't care about being killed, you will certainly care if they kill your family and friends.
Anyways, Greece fall, France and British banks are screwed.
lolmao500, actually Greece remains largely the same as it did prior to entering the Euro. Nobody 'bought anything on the cheap'. This is mostly because Greece has never been dominated by conglomerates or businesses large enough to be targeted by foreign entities looking for bargains. The economy of Greece has always been comprised of small businesses are small businesses that are often passed down from generation to generation. In other words, there really wasn't anything for the major European powers to buy. Many of us Greeks (50%, in my case) were worried that Greece would turn into a tacky tourist haven with large hotels destroying the beautiful skylines of the islands. As it turned out, Greece has barely changed at all. The only difference is that it became much more expensive. However, I agree that the Greeks should refuse to cave in and allow a bunch of complicit politicians put up their assets as capital. Declare bankruptcy, go back to the drachma, have an inflationary depression rather than a deflationary one, and move on. Greece is one of those countries that has always been stuck in time, which is partly why it has retained its ephereal beauty. In the grand scheme of its thousands years history, this would be nothing more than a little blip.
Well this is good news. You are the exception then. Most eastern european-balkan country were bought on the cheap. Most small business closed because of big business selling their products at too low prices due to subsidies.
What is awesome (in a sadistic way) is the number of equities types that are on vacation this weekend and have no idea this is going on...Monday is going to be great as they realize US markets are closed and they are stuck until Tuesday.....total panic.
Italy will be the real key...perhaps Spain. Both have covered, repeatedly, their toxic situation will come to the surface.
i agree...got to love the long weekend
I have a lot of respect for the individuals who take the time to write for this site. I agree with about 25%, but still, they are putting forth an admired amount of energy to try to get people to read and think.
I remember back in 2009, Ms. Singer would put out the weekly number of banks that where taken over by the FDIC. Eventually she drove me mad and I asked that they not provide this information on such a constant basis-it was reduntantly boring.
I come here tonight on the same bended knee I used to beg Ms. Singer to save me from that information. Please, please stop posting writtings about Greece. We get it. Just stop please.
ZeroHedge - This is for you!
Nobody does it better
Makes me feel sad for the rest
Nobody does it half as good as you
Baby - you're the best!
Contagion Bitchez
second that.
Does this mean we won't be able to buy their yogurt? God I hope not.
To quote the Great Decider.
This sucker is going down.
My apologies for ever doubting you gold buggers.
Next target 2500 by oh lets say december. The ECB and Bernanke cant wait to wring the excess out of gold first. They will have to act regardless of the consequences to the precious metals market.
I'm from Canada. Anyone know a good place online to buy survival rations. (MRE's)?
Jethro, Google that.
Supplies are running low everywhere.
Let alone shipping times.
Get out and buy brown rice, Red beans, Black beans,Canned fruits and veggies,Coffee,powdered drinks, water,gravy mixes, toilet paper,canned meats, pasta and sauces and on and on.
If you are taking any meds get those as soon as possible.
Buy lots of everything that you can afford.
If this goes down their will be lots of people unprepared.
Don't listen to anybody tell you "It can't/won't happen
If nothing else you are supplied for awhile.and the prices are just going to keep going up..
MREs can also be found at sporting/camping supply store
I also heard Walmart/Costco is selling bulk.
Good Luck.
Oh yeah, Rubbermaid tote containers to put your stuff in.
Jethro, this is serious shit. I would never intentionally mislead you. If you have a wife and kids especially so.
Try to get several months of supples.
Think cases.
Jethro,
MRE's are great to have, but for the going price (about $80 USD) of one 12 MRE case that may last you 6-10 days, you can buy a months worth of canned meat, spam, canned vegetables, rice, flour, yeast, sugar, peanut butter, ramen noodles, pasta, dried beans, etc if you look for sales. I would invest in 5 gallon buckets, mylar bags, and oxygen absorbers to store your dry foods long term. You Tube has many great videos on how to prepare this. I would also strongly suggest buying a "Berkey" type water filter and plan on having at least 1 gallon per day per adult on hand. Good luck, it's never too late to begin prepping.
Will somebody just say it? The EU is dead. Pronounce it dead before the stench overwhelms us. -- Michael C. Ruppert
http:www.collapsenet.com/154.html
current observations from my holiday in the greek islands.
95% + of the general populance hanve no idea of what is about to hit them. they are simple,walm, happy, family folk who have a resigned acceptance that they are generally governed by crooks and theives.
there is a wealthy aristocracy of 500ish families here that have near everything of significance stiched up. the little people seem to be happy to get by, eat, sleep, work, live, etc.
I can imagine how there have been a gang of shitesters who have colluded with the govt to totally gut this joint....but at the end of it the greeks are a resoiuceful, simple people ... and when all the fucking-overing is done.... those who lent to the crooks are going to get some medicine.. life will go on here...s it as for thousnads of years.......\
my 10 c .... sorry for the crap typing - not my JD!
WE HAVE DEPARTURE!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKE3FSPJu-4&feature=player_detailpage
Does this mean Ann Margaret is not coming?
The size of UBS dwarfs Switzerland so this nation is far from being as solvent as one may think. This is, in part, is why I've chosen gold/silver as my sole monetary units for storing wealth. Shorting the Swiss Franc may end up being one of the great contrarian trades of the ages. The only problem is that there isn't really anything to pair it with for a short and guessing whether it collapses before the other currencies is simply a role of the dice.
Good thinking.
I have seen many dichotomies around here. Shorting Euro or Italy Bourse, only to hold another worthless paper in exchange... LOL.
It seems that some acknowledge crisis is there, but not a complete collapse.
A Bank holiday will scare shit, I see highly unprobable there will be one. The governments would rather nationalize banks first, socialize debt, refresh bank balance sheet, release to banklords again... rinse and repeat.
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"So is the worst bank some derelict husk of toxic assets..." one doesn't expect such phrasology from the finace world. janus couldn't do it better himself.
the whole thing was well crafted. but it set off yet another bout of serious study...this may take a while.
From today's 'Handelsblatt' (google translation)
The Titanic scenario:What happens to our money if the turmoil in the markets trigger a chain reaction and breaks down the Euro-zone? Advised by Professor Clemens Fuest from Oxford Handelsblatt has designed a "worst-case scenario".
Dusseldorf 22nd February 2012: Southern Europe is sinking into recession. In Greece, the government falls.
2nd April 2012: Greece declares withdrawal from the monetary union and introduced the New Drachma.5th April 2012: A banking crisis sweeping Europe. The rescue will doubled.
20th June 2012: Portugal also voluntarily separates from the monetary union. The banking crisis is intensifying.
7th July 2012: At the insistence of the Europeans decide Obama's Euro-bonds (sic!) and a Marshall Plan for Southern Europe.
23rd July 2012: The Bundestag rejects Euro-Bonds and the Marshall Plan.
5th August 2012: At a secret meeting in Deauville, Merkel and Sarkozy resolve the North-€.
12th August 2012: At a summit meeting in Eltville, seal the remaining euro-zone countries formally established the North-€.
30th January 2013: The real economy is suffering, the ECB is powerless.http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout...
It must be pointed out that a fair bit of the Spanish housing bubble was created by us (Brits) buying houses over there when times were 'good' a few years back. I'm sure they'd have played the bubble game on their own, of course, but we did give them a helping hand with it.
UPDATE 1-Greek cenbank provided emergency funding to banks
3 September 2011, Athens (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/03/greece-cenbank-idUSL5E7K314K20110903
* Greece's cenbank provided emergency funding in August-central bank governor
* Central bank ready to provide further liquidity if needed-governor
* He urges faster structural reforms
This site has posted the latest July figures for Euro TMS (along with US and Japan). The Euro TMS growth is about 1% and looks to be stalling.
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/files/2011/09/Slide1-e1314888478949.gif
Let's see what will be ruled on Wednesday in Germany. Probably some pass thru to the EuGH ("Grand Court" from EU).
Hands down the whole bailout is against any EU-Law, but I doubt our BVerfG will rule so in plain terms - just because that will kill the Euro right on the spot (which could be life-threatening to the judges in conspiracy spheres).
Right.. and Germany is extending its share of the game called EFSF.
Looks like there's a "hidden" rule where the share can be increased by 20% - rendering the guarantees from E211bn to E253bn.
German source: http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,784279,00.html
Yeah, just pass more of our yet-to-be-earned-and-paid tax-money to Greece.
Hard default ? Dint the Greeks default umm like 3 times i would say having tear gas shot off all day and night would kind be some-what of a default ? How more hard of a landing do you need chains and shackles ?
chew my root IMF !
Bravo, down with the IMF, ECB, EU troika!
The people of Greece have awaken to the realities of this farce:
http://www.youtube.com/user/realdemocracygr#p/u/0/_6NhzVf0mIM
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