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The Gap Between Reality And Consensus Is Growing Fast
With today's less than stellar consumer confidence number and continued path of missed expectations on key macro data over the past few weeks, it is perhaps wondrous that our brain-trust of analysts and economists continue to forecast higher expectations across the board. While this may not come as a surprise to readers used to comprehending the magic of the Birinyi ruler's extrapolation and the inevitable and clockwork 'miss' of turning points of any and every educated talking-heads model, this chart from Deutsche Bank's asset allocation group should contextualize where we are actually versus where LaVorgna and friends see us going. The sad truth is - we have seen this play out again and again and as the printing-press-pressure drives up asset prices (providing confirmation bias upon anchoring bias for any and every economist or long-only manager quoting the 'recovery' or decoupling), the truth is that as prices (and expectations) distend from value and actual reality, the central bank's efforts to 'maintain' the status quo simply create a larger and larger vacuum for asset prices to fall through when sad reality is finally peeked.
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Just look at both the price of gasoline and the amount of gasoline delivered to gas stations year over year. I see nothing but collapse.
gasoline hit 3-yr low demand, crude 15- yr, but I dissagree- ave Joe has a clue yet, or will ever care to know most truths in the USA.
Yep, but then again the U.S. and the dollar are becoming less relevant every day. No one cares about U.S. demand, its a world eCONomy now, what is world demand?
It's a world economy and the weight is shifting from the West to the East.
my roomate's sister makes $85 hourly on the computer. She has been fired from work for 6 months but last month her paycheck was $16158 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more here ..... http://lazyCash9.com
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/march-crude-oil-output-loss-at-12mbp...
That's because we are four years past peak oil. Month by month, production slip after production slip. There's this months news on output.
To those deluded enough to believe that the energy sector is doing just fine, make all the excuses you wish to, but I hope you prepared yourselves.
"Since 2004 world oil production has remained within 5% of its peak despite historically high prices (see Figure 1)."
"The combination of increasingly difficult-to-extract conventional oil combined with depleting supergiant and giant oil fields, some of which have been producing for seven decades, has led the International Energy Agency (IEA) to declare in late 2010 that the peak of conventional oil production occurred in 2006 (IEA, 2010)."
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9015
"Global Oil Risks in the Early 21st Century
Posted by JoulesBurn on March 26, 2012"
Perhaps you are more of an energy expert than me, but I don't believe this "peak oil" shit. They've been saying this for decades. I won't believe we've hit peak oil until I see rigs and fracking outside my window. There's a ton of energy under our feet, it's just the enviro-nazis have prevented us from tapping it.
I'll stop by your house someday for a glass of water...Oops! There's flames shooting out of your taps
There is no question about it and average joe is catching on every day.
The fall to earth will be epic.
You see, people like us who have known and have been warning what is about to take place have been doing so for at least 4 years now... the average Joe did not believe or want to believe until it hit him personally... now they are catching on and there is a mass enlightenment taking place... thus they tighten the rope in preperation
"The fall to earth will be epic."
It's not the fall.......but the sudden stop that kills ya.
Just sayin'
wrong. The ave Joe is now thinking about getting his meager savings into The Market.
With all the bad news - the market is trading even today.
I'm expecting Dow+150 tomorrow
If I had to guess I would say about 3% of people actually get it. Of my friends and family, who are of average intelligence and somewhat informed, have no fucking clue. I talk to business associates and they are totally clueless.
Yes, the % of people who get it is growing, but way way way too low.
3% is supposed to be the magic number. It's a point of no return for the information spreading (ie. tptb cannot stop it now).
The critical mass of launching an irreversible social change could be useful information to some fight club members. Obviously, with regard to reform of fiscal policy, we are nowhere close to that number and it is my opinion that the information provided here is incorrect by a factor of at least five. 3% fads spring up and die all the time. The actual number and the speed of a transformational movement varies widely depending upon the social influence of the opinion leaders enlisted into the change and the talents and tactics used by the vanguard. Transformational movements are exceedingly difficult to carry out and rarely succeed.
Reality is their illusion
Their fiction is the reality.
"They got lies so big
They don't make a noise
They tell 'em so well
Like a secret disease
That makes you go numb"
- Frank Zappa
Funny how the consensus is rarely below the actual. And as far as that vacuum for prices to fall through look at housing, 4 years and tens of thousands in depreciating value on the avg. home and still no one stepping in. That's a vacuum.
I am fairly sure that this system is nothing more than a hallucination brought on by mass quantities of bad hopium. We escaped from reality some time ago...
"Reality"....
That's so ,so.....60'ish.
I've always believed that reality is for people who can't face drugs.
I suspect that this "new reality" is brought to you by Bernanke and if he has to buy every last stock in the market I would not put it past him to do just that in order to keep his reality alive.
Even for the chairsatan, that will be a tough task to pull off - and just one mistake, just one 'pop' somewhere along the house of cards, and not even all the kings men will put him/it back together again. That's the thing about gravity and reality.
Question: if all the average folk investors still in the market were to scream at the top of their lungs, would anyone hear?
Answer: Unlikely since reality hits like a 2X4 to the head causing instant deafness.
probably not. Mutual fund outflows have only increased as the market has gone higher and this is where most of the 401ks are.
I have contacts at the TBTF's. If you have under 250k in investments, you are not worthy of a financial advisor. you get routed to the call center wher recent college grads are licensed to give invemtment advise without any real world experience (most of them anyway). I have been told more and more indivduals are still rolling over their 401k's and liquidating at least 25-50% IMMEDIATELY and in many cases prematurely just to make ends meet. I believe this is where we are getting the monthly outflows from
Funny how we haven't heard a word about the CMBS coming due 2012-13, apparantly the Fed took 1/2 the toxic commercial loans off the banks, and it was BofA that loaded their CMBS into those derivitives they unloaded on the FDIC, so this is the plan for all the banks? Off-load CMBS & other toxic waste AS DERIVATIVES to the FDIC, then hand over to Treasury, where they "go away"? I don't expect the rental housing GSE plan to go well, the hedgefunds will lose their asses managing hundreds of sf homes, dealing with tenants (squatters for going on 5 yrs) individually will prove to be a trying experience, I had rentals once.
This is precisely why banks are opening up so many strip mall satelite banks. They own the property paper, so might as well use some of the freshly printed money to fill the storefronts.
wife said our local mall "North County Fair" has plastered empty spaces' windows with cheerful full-height opaque posters.Tiny "space avail" in corner.
If you want to make your head spin, look into the FDIC's loss share program. It's the biggest fucking scam ever - and just like all other fed programs it's for TPTB and screws the little guy.
That's why I never took an office job and skied every powder day I could. All those little work slaves...never gonna see retirement or a fly rod like they hoped...
"Life" - you can't take it with you when you go
Doesn't this article ignore acceptance of inflation?
Have $100 to buy 10 items and each item is $10.
Double the supply of money and $200 will be $20 for each item, yet there will be a period of variance within a state of ballancing and reballancing.
What do you get? Illusion of growth wrapped in devaluation. Payroll will remain the same and buying power will erode.
As long as the movement is not out of sync and doesn't move to fast, both the psyche and the reality will balance so there will be be perhaps no price fall vacuum.
Right?
Yes let's use the financial system to manipulate asset prices higher in the hopes that the resulting inflation will be mistaken for growth.
I don't see any problem with that, it worked great in 2008 and 2000.
Sometimes it's just funny to recall that former bankers are now whitewashing their colar crimes by working for central banks now - which they used to piss upon - stating that Bob Marley wasn't the only one singing about how "everything is gonna be allright." Don't worry, Obama, Ben and the Octopus: Three Little Birds!
Want a really good show, watch the interview from last night with Birinyi's skinny blond hussy on Bloomberg (I think with Maryam Namazee). Good Lord, dumber than a box of rocks! Seriously. I wouldn't let this chick touch my penny jar! Perfect icon of a Wall Street money manager.
Shit like this, "It's gone up 40%, and people don't like it. That's why we like it, it's sort of a contrarian view, but it can go higher. We recommend it."
Ahh here it is: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/89021669/ (warning!! your stomach may wretch)
OMG. Just watched it again.
She's a broken replicant! You can see the words "blink now" crossing her terminal.
WOW that was painful
ha... she said "rationable"- and people in the background couldn't not laughl... about 1:39 of the clip... pure gold. We're soooooooooo focked.
Let's see, Amanda Crumb graduated from Keene State College with a BS in Exercise Physiology in 2007... and what has she done in the last 4-5 years to qualify her to speak on the market? Can't find her resume anywhere on the web! It is interesting that Birinyi doesn't post or list any of their analyst or executives resumes.
Are some men really so stupid that they fall of this shit? <sarc rhetorical question>
edit...
"1700 is 100% a possibility"
Birinyi is one of Hall of Fame Pimp Asshole Sold My Soul.
Well, this makes me feel a lot better about selling equities now.
Wow. That was just awful. You are not kidding.
Amanda Crumb, "We like how the markets looks." Now is she saying that the market has a nice outfit on, or is she saying it is well rested and handsome?!?
Clearly, she is the epitome of a "muppet," and Goldman is looking to take all of the money of the clients of that firm at which she is employed.
How does someone with such little intellectual substance and wisdom get a portfolio managment job on Wall Street and then get paraded around on tv? Why broadcast such or is Bloomberg in dire need of ANY kind of content, no matter the quality?
I think her future is really in retail.
Yeah. Her future's in retail alright.
As the cosmetics counter clerk at the local Macy's.
Exhibit A showing how critical thinking is dead. "it will go up because it has gone up" WTF kind of logic is that.
So she likes Hermes because its expensive and the business conditions she stated are negative? Sounds very rationable..
There were lines of Distention from the Duodenum, he died from what he ate. Seven before Fight Club. This bitch is toast. A Lie can only stretch as far as the stomach that swallows it.
Also notice the frequency of the drops is increasing. It will continue to increase until the final convulsion. If two major crashes occur in one calendar year, one more is all it will take, and it will come so fast, if preps weren't made from the beginning, it will be far too late.
When you walk into a restaurant and can feel the tension all around, might well be taken as a sign of what is to come.
I'll be damned. Even 'hope and change' has a business cycle.
Stocks took a rocket to the outer edge of the atmosphere based on nothing but hope of future growth catching up to the lofty valuations given to them by stealing trillions of dollars from the future.
There is a problem. By stealing trillions of dollars from the future, it will not be there to create growth. The lofty valuations will never be justified.
Let alone finding out what the real earnings of these corporations are without the GAAP tricks and absolute lies placed on the books. I like how the SEC is looking into Priceline. Maybe they should just ask for a complete audit of the bullshit books. I only know two people that use Priceline because every single person I talk to hates how the site works. But the valuation of Priceline has nothing to do with actual people using the site, but everything to do with its status as a momo pumping Fed stock buy darling.
Retail stocks keep going up even with a dead consumer. Corporations like Under Armour that generate $1.4 billion in sales can only manage less than $50 million in profit after all is said and done. That is because the majority of the $1.4 billion is never actually sold to a consumer. Big retail purchases the massive load of inventory to pump UA stock and at the end of the year Under Armour is forced to take back hundreds of millions worth of inventory.
Our entire economy is a scam based on the farce that the US consumer generates 75% of economic activity. The true real GDP of America is somewhere around $6 trillion, maybe less. The rest is a Wall Street generated mirage.
The gold 'ol USA is TOTALLY BASED ON FRAUD, DECEPTION, CRIME, legal and otherwise, War Crimes too. The Squatters going on 5 years rent-free fuel $50 Billion in consumer "spending" that's why clogged foreclosure process, all by design. The labor participation rate is going down(U/E rate) because of back-to-school in their 50's to retrain for the 3rd-4th time and since 2008, DISABILITY CLAIMS FOR MENTAL ILLNESS JUMPED 10% to 43% OF ALL CLAIMS! USA is the cesspool of the world, after a few warzones.
So what are these greedy assholes going to buy with all their high priced "assets"? And who's going to produce it? NOT THEM.
The MF Global CFO...."...I unfortunately have limited knowledge...blah, blah, blah..."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mf-globals-top-lawyer-break-111624430.html...
Best solution is to prosecute all of the top executives equally for 10 years in jail. Let them then sort out amongst themselves who was the culprit and come forward ...it's done all the time in tort law when the plaintiffs use a "code of silence" and no one comes forward with the truth but we all know someone had to cause the injury.
No wonder 'confidence' is at an all time low.....
Metaphors
The wider the audience, the greater the need to abstract.
For every explicit empire procedure, there is an implicit open source procedure, but not limited accordingly. A procedure is like a to-do list for the day. If you completed your list, your procedure brings back the value 1; if not, it brings back the value 0, on the empire side. On the open side these procedures are functions that may bring back any value.
My metaphors/functions may bring back any value, serving as a counter, timer, threshold, etc., and they may or may not affect the empire procedure. They can’t hire people to process the cloud, and there are many levels of programming beneath what you see on your computer. So, if I type Trojan Horse and “Skynet” reads it…Trojan Horse has a value.
Beavis & Butthead do Wallstreet.
'Hope - a - Dope' don't work no more!
Joe Sixpack has come off the ropes and is swinging!
The only ones falling for this sugar coated 'crap' are the ones caught in their endless loop of hopeium!