• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

The Gaping Maw Of Centrally-Planned Surreality

Tyler Durden's picture


There was a time when the market led, and the economy followed. That's when the market was still a discounting mechanism, a long, long time ago. Then came a time when the clueless market, after every illusion it held about a Dow 36,000 future was shattered, would respond with a slight, millisecond delay to every flashing red economic "surprise" headline and thanks to HFTs exaggerate the momentum of the move spectacularly, leading to delirium-inducing volatility, and even further confusion. But what we have now, under the final advent of the central planner New Normal, when the economy is clearly going one way (the wrong one), while the S&P is dogedly chasing the opposite direction and completely ignoring any and all downside macro surprises, is something never seen before. One thing is certain: the gaping maw of the alligator: the red and the blue arrows will converge, and sooner or later the convergence will not be in the direction that the central printer, and his Liberty 33 henchmen, request.

Courtesy of John Lohman

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Fri, 09/21/2012 - 18:46 | 2819488 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

i don't know, i do feel richer.  makes me want to go buy things.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:20 | 2819532 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

the surprise INDEX is really at 750.


unrelated, but of interest poss:

Dessa draws a parallel between Monsanto and Apple and their sale of licenses rather than goods in order to better "secure" easily duplicated items and prevent sharing:


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:37 | 2819580 e-man
e-man's picture

Barbarous relics for me.  They're so shiny and pretty.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 08:28 | 2820016 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Don't burn.....what good are they?


Sat, 09/22/2012 - 13:28 | 2820485 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Gosh.. Apparently this lady was a hedge fund trader and is the first of a soon to be dying breed.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 21:20 | 2819707 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Not until Tom Lee's (the most accurate analyst right now) ES 1495 is consummated... then, Bob the Bear takes over (except he will not be short, but WE will be).   300% SHORT at ES 1495: NO SOONER.  

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 22:43 | 2819779 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

what your fiz and drive me to frenge

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 18:51 | 2819496 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

As long as noone cashes out we can be rich

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 18:54 | 2819499 Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

THE SIMPSONS - Homer Votes 2012

Just released today.  This is pretty funny.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 18:52 | 2819500 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



Here's some gaping reality for you

A Shortage of Bonds to Back Derivatives Bets

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:15 | 2819538 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hey! Just defease it all with 50 year bonds.....

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:31 | 2819563 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

+20 for using defease

Beats recourse.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 06:28 | 2819964 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

There have been 1000 year bonds issued by some Canadian railways in the past. Might as well go full-out to the max.

And you can still buy some of the British 'consol' bonds still floating around from the 1800s - they are perpetual, they only pay interest, with no promise by the UK to pay off the principal, ever ... just your coupon in continually-debased pounds and pence.

We're essentially doing that now, might as well make it official in the prospectus:

'Principal Repayment Date: F*cking Never!'

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 06:59 | 2819976 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Yep - UK still paying for Napoleonic Wars with Napolean War bonds - aint that cool?  Napoleon must be laughing in his grave.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 08:37 | 2820023 LULZBank
Sat, 09/22/2012 - 06:55 | 2819973 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

haha business week copycatted... 

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 09:06 | 2820044 falak pema
falak pema's picture

they know how to get round that one, at least they think so; like the Ottomans, Romanovs and all the others :

1°  Rehypothec to infinity. Keep in step wih QE-inf.

2° Install permanent regulatory capture. No shadow banking book keeping in dark pools. No legal accountability, full crony cover up and manipulation of zombie market. Eventually all the oligarchs will fall into goose step (haha pipedream; but dream on oligarchs). 

3° Hope that inflation,$ debasement and asset pumping can hollow out the sheeple's saved pensions to maintain momentum and permit that paper profits of oligarchs stay liquid relative to hard commodity assets. This sham could go on as long as the creditors don't gang up on Uncle Sam pax americana; which they eventually will if the sheeple don't wake up. 

4° Go despotic officially and invade Iceland. That should set the MIC rolling. 

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 07:22 | 2819985 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

"collateral transformation"



Sat, 09/22/2012 - 08:29 | 2820017 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Just buy the damn tee shirt....it's only 30 bucks.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 18:56 | 2819510 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Gaping maw

Hmm looks hungry.One of the uglier alligators seen recently

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:05 | 2819523 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

The National Zoo in DC has a nice collection of big ol' Nile crocodiles that would be perfect for feeding banksters and politicians to when SHTF.  :~)

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:12 | 2819534 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Damn, luv the attitude.  Collect regular FL gators and release them by freeway overpasses meeself.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:15 | 2819537 catch edge ghost
catch edge ghost's picture

Doh. I thought I read "Sorority" and this was gonna be something else entirely.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:28 | 2819566 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I don't believe that the market indexes have to reflect anything. If the FED is connected through front companies to the exchanges or directly through even more clandestine methods they can control the indexes. They have infinite wealth to put the market indexes wherever they choose. And if the choose to own ever last available share and then decide to have the market reflect price discovery they can sell that one available share to any of their front companies or have all the algos trade the one available share back and forth within a range. The alligator's mouth is a fractal misrepresentation based on the way things used to work. Markets have nothing to do with economies they are rather graphs generated by software. The dollar based values don't even have anything to do with value based on anything any longer. The whole thing is a disappearing mirage, a fading vaporous snapshot of the economic activities of a past civilization. Its not what it seems because by the time you try to compare it the basis for the comparison has not only changed but has faded away and in many cases been vaporized to oblivion. The stock of the stock market has an ever increasing change occuring to what it is defined by which means that the stock is also being removed from the software of the program that generates the indexes.

Its fucking over dudes.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 21:26 | 2819711 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

awesome post: welcome, you are a god.  

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 03:19 | 2819920 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

"The whole thing is a disappearing mirage, a fading vaporous snapshot of the economic activities of a past civilization. Its not what it seems because by the time you try to compare it the basis for the comparison has not only changed but has faded away and in many cases been vaporized to oblivion."


Whoa!  This is deep, dude!

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 04:56 | 2819944 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The equity markets used to the bitchez of the bond markets, which were in turn the bitchez of the money supply(s) and by extension the currency markets.  Has anything really changed, and is this time really different?

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 06:56 | 2819974 frenzic
frenzic's picture

Way to go. In other news a terrorist going by the name of q99x2 has been arrested. Cue photoshopped mugshot of the INSANE DANGEROUS MASTERMIND.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 08:53 | 2820037 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Final blow was the end of paper share certificates, for whatever they were worth.  Now it's just one big Fed manipulated hypothecation in cyberspace.  Fascinating game.  With all due respect to Little Black Sambo, one day these tigers will melt into butter around the pancakes.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 10:03 | 2820080 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Sorry, dude, but there is no such thing as "infinite wealth", that is an oxymoron. If there is an infinite supply of something it has no value. Infinite nominal dollars, yes, and I think that is what you were getting at. As for buying up everything and selling one share back and forth, that does not solve anything. Think about it.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:31 | 2819569 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Bernanke needs a psychiatrist. Whoops! He is seeing one!


Sat, 09/22/2012 - 10:30 | 2820127 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Real confidential to have your shrink visit you at work where everyone can see.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 22:06 | 2819754 Davilis
Davilis's picture

There seems to be so much Obama hype in the current movements.  Can anyone else see a pre-election market downturn in support of a shift to Romney?  Dunno, seems kinda obvious.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 01:06 | 2819876 Element
Element's picture

If profitable production and human services provision is not the aim then you are not an 'investor' making 'investments', and what you're sinking money into is not a stock market. In 2007 I told a pensioner who used to work for Telstra that the stock market is really a casino.  He almost went into spasms to deny it.  I saw the same guy in 2010 and he heartily agreed.

The investment mechanism is destroyed--financialised.  The zombies got to it while all the Governments' went out of their ways to make sure no one intervened to stop it.  Now the economies themselves are dying.  No economy = no Govt

And just like the stock market was a casino in 2007, the Govt is now a gutted organised-crime franchise backed by guns and thugs and a thin pretence of 'Law'. 

Same stuff Obama studied.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 04:09 | 2819930 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Nice one colonel

Little does mickey moron know, the new look is tactical and they are in the wrong room.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 04:22 | 2819934 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

May i add the fuck off song or (You don`t know)


Reel big fish



Sat, 09/22/2012 - 08:52 | 2820029 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

"But what we have now, under the final advent of the central planner New Normal, .. , is something never seen before. "

and yet it seems vaguely familiar, doesn't it


Sat, 09/22/2012 - 08:55 | 2820039 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

ok, I dutifully used the html editor to insert
<img src="http://oi50.tinypic.com/mcc208.jpg" alt="pawn shop" />
into the post.

the image appears in my comment editor, but doesn't show on the actual post.

what's the right way to include/upload/display the actual image rather then only the link or the artificial &lt; code rather than left angle bracket < or whatever.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 16:56 | 2820901 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Only contributors can upload images.  Can you just imagine some of the wacky images that would appear otherwise?

Write an article and have appear on ZH and you're in!

Otherwise you are limited to links.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 23:24 | 2821312 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

got it. 

thanks for the info.

and after my article appears in zh, how long before the face-tracking drones swarm around me 24/7



Sat, 09/22/2012 - 23:34 | 2821321 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

fortunately, those drones aren't autonomous. or nimble. and they can't swarm.



Sat, 09/22/2012 - 10:33 | 2820130 RockTime
RockTime's picture

Does anyone here know the answer to a simple question -- why we have two completely different charts on this so called "Economic Surprise Model / Index" -- one posted in this article from John Lohman and another that Citi bank is providing (see here:  http://www.businessinsider.com/the-myth-of-the-central-bank-driven-rally-2012-9) -- which one is "more accurate" -- or are they measuring completely different things and if so -- how different? both are basically called the same -- just a difference in semantics (Model vs. Index)?  Not a trivial question for investment decisions, IMO...  

I'd appreciate if anyone on this board (or Tyler Durden?) can weigh in to clarify.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 10:34 | 2820131 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

I have a neighbor that spreads the effluvia from his stables on his hay pasture.

I told him he was wasting a precious resource that could be sold as collateral for financial instruments.

He said his method of use is sustainable.

He has no Nobel Prize in economics.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 13:51 | 2820548 sbenard
sbenard's picture

A picture worth a thousand words!

Bernanke has made news irrelevant! Data is irrelevant! Analysis is irrelevant! Fundamentals are irrelevant! We have PRINTED prosperity now!

And if that isn't a bubble, what is?! Oh that's right, he calls it a "wealth effect"! He should be in Alcatraz, not Eccles!

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 14:44 | 2820684 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture


Due to recent central bank intervention and short covering spikes, all these daily charts are extremely overextended & a significant correction is expected very soon:



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