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The Gaping Trannie Spread
While we would be among the last to point out stock charts as an indicator of much significance in the New Normal, when the only thing that matters is how many trillion in liquidity the central banks have pumped into the market in the last few months (thus confusing economists and journalists that the nominal market is in fact the economy - just as the Chairsatan desires), the following chart from Grant Williams (whose latest "Things That Make You Go Hmmm" can be found here), which shows that the gaping spread between the DJIA and the Dow Transports is now the widest it has been in years. Soaring oil prices may not have infected stocks yet (and by stocks we obviously mean IBM and Apple), but those who think Dow Theory is even remotely relevant (hint: it isn't) should probably be concerned.
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open the pod bay doors hal!!! my favorite line from gaping trannie spread
Aren't most trannies limp? This is not good
That's the most descriptive headline I've read in a while. How do you erase long term memory?
I find the title disturbing...
The hits from SEC.gov will go asymptotic because of this article.
transports had been signalling good news up until this "another war(D)" thing started heating up.
watch the naz and the russell that is another place to consider the action.
where is my nasdaq 3000 hat??? there isn't one? there wasn't one.
in a money printing and successful kick the can down the road scenario, NASDAQ, would at best have a parabolic rally on light volume into 3420 to 3738; but risks in that scenario lead to 830 or less beyond 2013.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/81118863/Naked-Swan-Trading-FEB-3-2012-DOW-Transports-TRAN
what does matter? wait you told me Tyler printing....So We know that printing can never end...never...it just continues worldwide...thus the market will climb ever higher...Or explode in the most massive flash crash ever....
Trash Crash..Class Crash...Cash Crash. Game over. Too bad bullets and bombs will be flying instead of the heads of the criminals behind this.
Transportation Index? Isn't that passe now? Isn't everything done by the Internet now? Isn't money just a matter of electronic digits?
I don't need trucks and planes and trains and ships. I just order what I want on the Internet and within 2-5 days it appears at my front door.
sarc off
http://socialmediainfluence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/pets.com-logo...
Yeah right. I don't get it. I'm 200+ miles from any major metro area, and my stuff arrives right on time via Fed Ex and UPS. It just shows up.
(Actually, I know the drivers pretty well, and I know the pilot that used to fly the UPS plane from Eureka to Sacto every night, and back the next day. I was gonna go with him at some point, but he quit for a much better rich corporate asshole gig - much better aircraft to fly...)
There is a lot of fuel in the stuff that gets to me, and I'm well aware of it - whether its AvGas or diesel - every damn nut, bolt, screw and much food gets to my homestead in the boonies on the back of fuel.
Much bigger garden this spring to go with the apple and pear trees...
Red an yella kill a fella.
Looks like a coral snake in attack mode. The spread is the head. Jaws open.
WB should do an expose' on the whole Chairstan as Transvestite meme......
Tyler check out thehivedaily.com - it is reporting that Italy is stripping the Vatican of tax exempt status and attempting to collect taxes. Interesting, if true.
As Vatileaks has shown, it's only a (short?)matter of time before the Hitler Youth Pope gets off'd. Looking forward to finding out just who Petrus Romanus is.
The shit winds are a comin.
Order your copy, today!
http://www.raidersnewsupdate.com/petrus.htm
Question,... who manges the Vatican's finances/ books?
A Transylvania Rothschild Bank!
Damien Gayle
Mail Online
October 27, 2011
Prince Charles is campaigning to save the forests of Transylvania, inspired by his ancestral links to Vlad the Impaler, the 15th century nobleman better known by his patronym, Dracula.
http://www.infowars.com/blue-bloods-prince-charles-campaigns-to-save-tra...
It's a Circle of Life thing...or is it Jerk ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwSKkKrUzUk
it's a technology gap...already solved "with the corruption only accelerating the solution." we're exporting ethanol people! THERE IS NO ENERGY CRISIS--and so long as "The Chairsatan" offers zero-percent financing across the board for everything (been getting your Citigroup offers in the mail yet folks?) then the economical solution wins out everytime. Not every PLACE is a winner of course. As such you need to be VERY careful about what municipal debt you're buying...AND AT WHAT RATE. For example: "Lowville, NY school district bonds seem pretty good." Of course i understand how "this ain't very entertaining for the financial rock n' rolla set" so...FOR A LIMITED ENGAGEMENT ONLY (get 'em while they're hot! get 'em while they're hot!) disablevet offers this as well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=M4WJlLNIsyY
If trannys are involved, you think the SEC will look into it?
is the point that high oil prices should harm transportation stocks and Fed activity is keeping it aloft?
L0L!!! not sure myself, snake_QQrbs
tyler is such an unambiguous kidder, sometimez!
tyler, clearly in his area of expertise and comfort with the subject, does an xlnt intro to grantW's graph, tho!
PASTE (my oomph): the gaping spread between the DJIA and the Dow Transports is now the widest it has been in years. Soaring oil prices may not have infected stocks yet (and by stocks we obviously mean IBM and Apple), but those who think Dow Theory is even remotely relevant (hint: it isn't) should probably be concerned.
assuming zeroHeads can putTheGoogle0n"dowTheory" of they have a ??QQ??, those of us who include dougNoland's weekly rant as part of our "fridayNiteFightClub" [Doug Noland | Feb 24/Contemporary Monetary Analysis 'Crude at $110. Why not $150?'] already know that the third horse in the dowTrifecta, the utilities, are... (paste)
For the Week:The S&P500 added 0.3% (up 8.6% y-t-d), and the Dow increased 0.3% (up 6.3%). The broader market was resilient. The S&P 400 Mid-Caps added 0.1% (up 12.1%), while the small cap Russell 2000 dipped 0.2% (up 11.6%). The Morgan Stanley Cyclicals gave up 0.4% (up 15.7%), and the Transports dropped 1.9% (up 2.4%). The Morgan Stanley Consumer index declined 1.2% (up 2.9%), while the Utilities added 0.1% (down 3.2%). The Banks were down 2.0% (up 13.5%), while the Broker/Dealers were up 1.8% (up 20.1%). The Nasdaq100 added 0.8% (up 14.3%), and the Morgan Stanley High Tech index gained 0.8% (up 17.6%). The Semiconductors fell 1.9% (up 16.3%). The InteractiveWeek Internet index slipped 0.4% (up 11.7%). The Biotechs declined 0.6% (up 23.6%). Although bullion was little changed, the HUI gold index jumped 4.1% (up 8.7%). (end paste) ...down? {me: hey dougN! wasn't gold was up ~~2.9% and silver up ~~6.6% on the week, tho? maybe the "little changed" = everything else minus (oil)?}
thus we have a double-downDowDivergency! and, we find ourselves in a gigundo-matic casino, too! what a coincidence!
come let us reason, together... why are the utilities down? they are "interest-sensitive" and went ape-shit [as tyler recommended them as as (part of?) the long part of his his short-the fuking-snob retailers(?) spread last summer, as QEII went into the mystery books], but they, like the trannies, have that little sensitive-to-energy problemo, too, eh?
hmmmm... and tyler sez the dowTheory "hint: isn't" even remotely relevant
we shall not accuse tyler of pussy-footing here!
so what is relevant?:
if tyler and theMogambo agree, who shall stand against them? now, about that "theory"...
Slewie, you are out-doing yourself this Sunday evening. Whatcha' drinkin'?
I want some.
after i passed out and had some time away from "thinking", i began to wonder if maybe tyler's avowed aversion to the dowTheory was due to the fact that "they" keep changing the stocks in the "industrials"...
Gapping Trannie Spread? LOL. My nomination for best Zero Hedge article title EVER
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-psa7Utw4JM
"Amir Sayoud is about to take a penalty for Al Ahly against Kima Aswan in the Egyptian
Football league.
That’s him, in the red shirt approaching the ball.
A few seconds after this still was taken, Sayoud’s face was left redder than his shirt.
The referee administered the coup de grace as he reached into his pocket..."
what was the guy thinking :)
So they've pumped in trillions of "liquidity". Ever heard of the liquidity "trap"?
http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/liquidity-trap-explained/
http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2012/02/25/liquidity-trap-theory-and-p...
Jet fuel is going for about $140 per barrel right now. Most companies cannot afford to hedge this too much. I would be curious to see who is hedged well right now. I'm guessing American is not and with their older fleet it will hurt them pretty bad. These fuel costs will be passed on to consumers soon enough though. They are just going to love that! I'm already feeling more optimistic.
"Honey, how about we just do some backyard camping this year!"
alaskan oil is primarily jet fuel....looks like a good time to be a net exporter of jet fuel, which we are....
"There’s divergence.... and then there’s DIVERGENCE.
Any Dow Theory adherents out there will recognize this pattern as the Dow Transports flash a
sell signal, but the extremity of this particular case bears close scrutiny..."
i never paid attention to the Dow Transport Index.. this is some serious graph!
Is it because of the Oil Prices?
Might be a little late to short AMR...
There's literally nowhere else left for the money to go. Bonds are ridiculous, and real estate about to get pummelled. Even money in the bank and cold hard cash is unsafe with how much is being printed. That leaves stocks and commodities for the cash to flow into, if only by the laws of the least dirty shirt.
TheSilverJournal.com
And floooow it will, especially if they can get a little military action going to get everybody through their reelections: the sheeple are afraid to change horses in mid-stream so they say.
"Soaring oil prices may not have infected stocks yet (and by stocks we obviously mean IBM and Apple), but those who think Dow Theory is even remotely relevant (hint: it isn't) should probably be concerned."
The only part of that sentence that is out to lunch is the "hint" part. Of course Dow Theory is relevant... totally relevant. If anybody can't see the correlation on the chart above, he's either blind or doesn't know how to read a chart. For one thing, this widening gap between Trannies and the broad equities market is exposing the possiblility that the current stock market rally just might be totally bogus (hint: it is).
Tyler, it seems it's time to stop looking for traditional metrics to indicate a correction. Just concentrate on the desire to pump up the wealth effect to support spending and the need for defined benefit pension funds to meet obligations. That should stop your looking under rocks for an imminent correction.
Agreed, and in many less words than I could use.
+1
when the major carriers started drop shipping from China the economists celebrated. that effectively immunized them from the American Business Cycle, a pesky reminder that trees do not grow to the sky. (in the old days a recession began when WORKERS started to worry that a slowdown was coming. damned confidence, the economists needed to get control of that and they did. recessions should never be self reinforcing, based on the cost of labor and ability of consumers to spend)
it was a great day really now UPS and FEDEX were part of the global economy, and slow downs and layoffs in America could not interfere with the asymmetical flow of products and services, well the Chinese make things we buy, and they steal intellectual property we leave laying around. the Trannies reflect the new economy, hence divergence means little, they're as useless as the Baltic Dry index, or the Junk to Ten year spread. Or gasoline prices.
just call up our friends in China, arrest a couple million more will you, and lower your cost of production, and drop ship my items while you're at it.
The problem is that American workers, especially unionized workers, and public employees, refuse to work for compareable wages to Chinese workers. Also, pensioners demand they get their nominal pay.
Protectionism is off the table, so the only viable solution is to devalue the dollar until the American worker is competitive with the Chinese worker.
The second problem is that the Chinese refuse to let the American dollar get that low. The Fed and the PBoC are playing chicken. I'm betting on The Bernank, he's a true believer, the Chinese will have to give up on devaluation at some point, and let American wages become competitive; the only question is, how much devaluation will it take to get there?
Once wages are equalized, employment and the economy can grow over here, and who knows, the government might balance their budget and even pay it down.
If you run another overlay chart and include the price of oil, you will see that the past superspike in oil didn't hurt stocks until 4 months later. Then they got schmeised. If S&P breaks 1370 we lose the double top and will have a melt up...until spiking oil does matter
Going by the charts, there has to be a pullback in oil, as people can not aford this price. Sure demand drivers are not focused solely on US consumption anymore, but world demand is not spectacular at this price point. US equity has run up dramatically, and is ripe for a pullback. Precious metals has run up and could make a small move back. The charts and many fundamentals say a 7% pullback should occur for the next few weeks.
Yet there is a wrench in the system: the ballooning of balance sheets by staking collateral as worthless as milky way wrappers to free up cash which will be paid for seven generations. WHile Bernanke and Krugman laugh at Black Elk and Chief Seattle, the Fiat Ponzi warps out of control. Who knows what price is anymore, when the supply of fiat currency is infinite. Demand is high, sure, because all banks from the US to Europe to Japan and to CHina are essentially bankrupt on bad motrgages, bad bank debt, and bad credit, but the type of demand is desperation.
This is the system in the its death throws. You are hearing the Fiat Ponzi's death rattle. How long will it take to die? Who knows, and frankly, who cares. If we are looking at one more year, fine. Then next year will see at least $150/barrel, $2500/oz gold, and some wierd index number while rates stay ZIRP'd, and while unemployment stays high.
And yes, the main reason for this is to keep a boot on everyone's necks. It is not necessarily to kill billions of people, although I am sure Bill Gates and Ted Turner would welcome that. No, it is to make people hope for the little things, and when they get them be thankful of what little they have, never thinking they could be doing better if they killed their Master. It is the last squeeze of the middle class into the lower; it is the great seperation of upper and lower classes.
So with Europe issuing half a trillion dollars this week to pin their milky way wrappers to their balance sheets we could likely see a spike in price of all asset prices, or the banks may get caught up in a liquidity trap and be forced to cover. Either way, the Fiat Ponzi will spin down the rabbit hole, while the livelyhood of everyone is diminished into thinking all they need to survive is this lamp. This lamp and an ipod....and a milky way.....and a bacon flavored milkshake.....that's all....that's all we need in life....and this half eaten cheeseburger. But that's all....
+1
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)
C= private consumption = [Insert Here]
I is gross investment=[Insert Here]
G is government spending = 15,000,000,000,000
X is exports = [Insert Here]
M is imports = China
god bless the home of the brave and the land of the free (i dont know if this still holds true) /sarc
There'll be a pullback in oil alright.....just before Obama's reelection. They're taking their profits up front.
Ok, so let's say their goal, the PTB, their goal is to have a pullback right before the election. They keep monetizing until then, we know that, and they keep banging the war drums, but do not go to war, for if they did, a huge spike in price would happen. So considering that, the pullback would be from $150 to let's say $125, because at the current pace, we will be staring $150 in the face come the election.
That is not exactly a genious political plan, in my book, since the price will rise hugely, and the pullback will be marginal in comparison to the loss of desrcetionary spending.
.....and big oil will be making donations to everyone....make sure whoever wins is in their pocket.
expect CME to raise margin requirements on gas because of political pressure; even the MSM is covering gas prices
Agreed. And this is likely the last trick they have left in the bag. Maybe a SPR release could calm the waters or a few weeks, but only a few weeks at best. Unlike raising margins on precious metals, which will scare more and more investers into physical bullion, traders ahve no other chose but to play futures for oil, and maybe by oil stocks.
everything this year is timed for the election, instead of an October surpise we'll have a June, July, August, September, October and November surprise.
Right. I do think it will start in May though. Looking at PM charts this morning I still think we are a little ways from a major breakout. I think once the Europonzi is realized for what it is, which should happen once the Eye of Sauron moves from Greece onward, the Fed will need to step in, and once the Fed steps in the business of bailing out other States, then the Ponzi should go full retard.
I don't think the Greek debt roll should be a problem. JPM already has that capital from MF Global to use, as the $1.6 billion will be fractionaly reserved (it likely has already been) to buy the Greek debt roll of $14.4 billion. Really it will be on to the next one soon, but they better hpe the LTRO goes according to plan. Any bump in the road and the wheels fall off.
But anyway, PM cahrts say May, and as PMs are the best future indicator as to the fate of the Fiat Ponzi, I think that is when the levy breaks.
Isn't there some history on what happens to gold/silver prices DURING rapid big stock downswings? Anyone know where I can find that information? Just read Buffets letter re long term gold investing - pretty much agree. But what about short-term movements?
It depends. Look at last August, when stocks fell through the floor. Cash fled to gold because stocks and bonds looked weak. This week will be the well known "the CBs are going for broke" trick of adding liquidity with unsecured debt to banks books, but what will the banks do with the cash? They could do anything.
And what did you agree with Old man Buffet about? Because that was one of the worst investing letters I have ever read.
Didn't mean I agreed with all in his letter - just his comment that, long term, producing land makes more sense than gold. I am way too bearish short term and just can't stand being in cash, but can't bring myself to fall in line with all the gold bugs on this site.
How soon before all of Greece are gaping trannies?
for a second there, i thought this was an article on janet napolitano!
my company is now switching to trucks from rail due to the high cost....
Came here expecting goatse, was disappointed.
is /b/ leaking?
The problem with becoming a Trannie is that the "Unwind" is a bitch or next to impossible.
"Baliff wack his pee pee" !
Updated DJIA prediction chart taking into account coming QE's. Might reach 15000 this year before dropping.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/133744#comment-133744
Oh noes...Somali pirates have captured all teh iPad3z.
Gaping.. Trann[y].. seriously? Did I just enter Thai-hedge? lol...
ECRI stiil staying with a Recession call....this could be signaled by the Trannie divergence:
http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5051
ECRI stiil staying with a Recession call....this could be signaled by the Trannie divergence:
http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5051
Who are TPTB? The Illuminati? Jews? George Soros? Sorry, redundant. I would like to know who is running things. It can't be a Nigerian with a Muslim middle name. No one could make that up. What's with the Mormon? I mean, come on, a Mormon? Really? Please tell me who is behind the curtain. I can't handle the suspense any more. I do have an idea though. The super computers at NSA could be manipulating everything, even reality.
Gaping Trannie Spread. Fnar fnar.
Headline gold, but you will now be inundated by hits from .mil and .gov domains... especially IPs that resolve to TSA.gov - because nothing warms up a .gov grope-tard for their day's fiddling than finding something to whack off to before they put on them blue gloves.
Would like to see this chart from 2007 and compare the oil price spikes with what we're seeing now...
This time it's different, but we'll use the same old tools to analyze it.
Idiots.
Dow theory is shit, and yes I am one extremely concerned individual.
The original Dow Theory used something that in scientific terms would be called error margin. In Robert Rheas days that was about 3% difference for closing prices.
I view that as an adjustment for all types of non-ideal market structure like incomplete information, random, and so on.
The current divergence is meanigless because it is too small and within the error margin; a bigger divergence changes the picture.
The original Dow theory was based on a "real" market and participants not this heavily correllated low volume meltup abomination. Does it make sense that a +3% closing divergence on a low volume otherwise heavily correllated meltup day would be more significant than when applied to past markets where Dow theory was thought of as applicable?
Over-the-road 16 wheelers are diesel.
Trains are diesel.
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
Inflation, BitCheZ! Is coming sideways at us, but it is here, not directly with printing, but with WTI hikes.
Confirming the weakening transports is...
"MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., February 14, 2012 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, fell 1.7 percent in January following the 0.4 percent decrease in December*. January’s data places the PCI 2.2 percent below year-ago..."
This is oneof the better indexes based on actual diesl purchases by truckers.
Dang, I thought this was a expose of the internet habits at the SEC.