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GDP Market Reaction - NEW QE-Off Trade (For Now)
From the swings and lows of historical revisions to beats across the board of GDP data this morning, it seems the market's pre-occupation with NEW QE is now being faded (modestly for now). Treasuries are 4-5bps higher in yield, S&P 500 futures down around 5pts, Gold down $10, and the USD up modestly. For now, it's QE-off, though no-one seems convinced as EURUSD falls - which fits better with the Fed won't print but ECB will perspective.
and close up...
and on a different note, Facebook has a $22 handle...
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Government Decided Propoganda
What's up with Melissa 'small lips' Lee's teeth? Summer teeth, some are here, some are there.
yawn
Tough crowd.
Christ, if the market wants QE3 they need to mass sell to drive the S&P down to a significantly lower level, buy the fucking dip and enjoy.
How hard would that be to co-ordinate? Not very — TBTFs and algos could pull it off in less than an hour. So if it's not happening obviously the market isn't hungry enough for it.
Same for the PM bugs who squeal murder when the Gold and Silver prices go down.
Short them to near zero and then buy the ultimate dip!
But no, there is no sanity on either side.
You won't hear me whining about buying silver when it's on sale!
AZIZ everyone wants everyone else to sell and get the fk out while they sell some calls and put some shorts on GS recommendations. No one is getting out.
One point five annualized...wheres my party hat?...lol.
Im at the point where its either
QE3 - off...
and
War(3) - on
~or~
QE3 - on...
and
War(3) - off.
I think its the former...An X-factor event is on the horizon.
Its one or the other. It smells like the early 1930's with a bit of 2008 mixed in...
And their is nothing new under the sun...
History is repeating itself.
Subtracting G makes it one percent and everyones doing backflips...I think someone around here called it right, project negative growth, then beat it and wallah...a popcorn fart...lol.
It does smell ;-)
Eh, she doesn't do anything for me. And I prefer Asian women.
Speaking of CNBS, did anyone see Maria and Bwany mix it up? Pretty funny. Good for her for holding his feet to the fire. She was too nice to this clown, imo.
http://realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/07/26/fireworks_cnbcs_bartiromo_vs_barney_frank_on_banks.html
What happened to me? This conversation suddenly made me all hot for Maria.
You also need to get laid, mate.
But, But, Facebook has a 22 handle....
/sarc
Too many companies missing and guiding lower.
If the fed does not print and the ECB does the dollar will strengthen once the stupid ass clowns actually understand what currency dilution does to the currency. People are already getting a glimpse of what a strong dollar will do to earnings.
Funny for a short while the masses will actually benefit from prices coming down until Ben takes a bat to their heads after the election.
Stronger dollar + tax on internet sales beginning Sept + lapse of tax breaks + plunging consumer spending = trouble.
Ben has no choice but to hold the dollar down as well as Uber NIRP.
News Flash - Monty Python Ministry of Silly Walks now in charge of markets. JH Christ this shit is just ridiculous.
The economy is a dead parrot. It is no more. It has ceased to be. This is a late economy!
They buried it in a graveyard about a hundred years ago
One must think.
This is now a centrally planned economy by design. The smoke and mirrors of chaos is there to aid it's implementation. Just as the global controls of population accelerate (cameras, drones, TSA, HS,...), so does the move toward control of commerce and money on a global scale.
The chaos has increased, and the move to control has increased.
Simply step back from the fray and observe the entire display. It will soon be all out of our hands, and completely in the hands of our "handlers".
Comforting thought!
Here, have a burger.....want fries with that?
New script for a movie: Weekend At Bennies where they prop up a dead economy!
To: President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi
Dear Mr. President,
The public is increasingly convinced that the financial sector in developed countries violates basic ethical principles and take action against the law. Investigations are conducted by prosecutors, and those he held the highest offices of financial institutions shall resign. Today we know that the most important of the world interest rate, LIBOR, was subject to manipulation by which banks achieve financial benefits at the expense of customers. It is not clear what role in the affair played by central banks, I hope that this will be explained effectively in the investigation that continues on both sides of the Atlantic.
Lord's statement yesterday shook the financial markets, dramatically changed exchange rates, stock indices, interest rates on government bonds, derivative instruments. In the current context where Europe could be plunged into the depths of the financial crisis of biblical proportions, it is very important that the standards of conduct of monetary policy in Europe has been maintained at the highest level. Therefore, I believe that you should take the following actions:
- Make public the ECB who knew that he would give you yesterday's comment
- Publish a list of billing all the people who know that this comment will be delivered,
- Publish a list of people outside the ECB, with particular reference to the representatives of the financial sector, which in recent days met anyone who has information that will be delivered this comment
Such monitoring should cut all speculations appearing on the Internet, which suggests that the standards of conducting monetary policy in developed countries have significantly reduced.
Prof. Krzysztof Rybinski
Rector of the University Vistula, Vice President of the NBP in the years 2004-2008
http://www.rybinski.eu/2012/07/list-otwarty-do-prezesa-ebc/
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=pl&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=...
how does gdp ex auto go up when production is increasing Q|Q?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/table3.htm
And bigger inventory build? Was that the premise of the GS downgrades?
The magic of prior year revisions
Eur usd has gone full retard since monday, the market is confused as fuck with violent swings in each direction.
There is no "market". It is only a playground of robots.
Look at the revisions. GDP is pretty much a useless metric on which to base anything.
Monkeys meet dart board.
Australian House prices dropping as RBA warns:
The Reserve Bank says housing prices may fall further and believes it is risky to assume they won't.
"It is a very dangerous idea to think that dwelling prices cannot fall," RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in a speech today. "They can, and they have."
"We should never say a crash couldn't happen here,
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/house-prices-cant-fall-a-dangerous-idea-rba-20120724-22m9v.html#ixzz21pMGAxbC
oh ben .. can you please ramp up the NAS-FRAUD a little more???. people need to exit facebook
And SBUX, down 10%. MCD down, UPS down AAPL down. But it is all company specific, does not show what the whole economy is doing. Ahem!
FB is a useless company. Never should have gone public. Lawsuits for a long time. Social Networking, does nothing for this family.
that was the whole reason it went public to cash in on it whilst it was all smoke and mirrors
Backfire total.
Oh and Spain now at 24.6% unemployment.
Call it as it is: DEPRESSION.
See Gold got slammed on the news.
How 'bout dat ?!?
This is awesome. Metals and stocks resuming their surge back up. Bernanke must be scratching his baldness and saying "oh shit". CNBcrap can try to spin this positively but I guess nobody is getting out of the way.
This dude is going to have to hit print with the dow at 14k and oil at 120 after all.
The market will remain insane longer than you can pay attention.
When you blink, the world has changed and you are fqt.
Zero Hedge is like tooth-pics for your eye lids; can't miss that next keyboard replacement opportunity.
QENEW-off, buy stawks! I mean, sell stawks? Whatever....YAY!!
Anyone else feeling a little flashy crashy?
PS Business Insider are calling you out for a fight TD. Go kick their asses.
Ohh, this gonna be good son!
I hear FAT FINGER is coming back from early retirement......last I heard he was in Ibiza partying with the money crowd while Spain burns...
I think we're looking at high probability of coordinated easing across multiple central banks (incluing the ECB). If it isn't coordinated, then currencies will be swinging and effecting imports/exports. Second, by coordinated, the ECB will have cover to do what it has wanted to do but supposedly can't. Are the Germans going to fight all the world's Central Banks.
Look to Japan, England, ECB, Federal Reserve, China, etc. to be in the mix.
Things are more than serious right now; they are deadly. The CB's have to be playing for keeps.
I hope the CBs remember : some things involve risk.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyaLZHiJJnE
This is possible, only problem is OIL is near $100, food prices are already on their way to new highs without QE and this type of coordinated action , while temporarily moving the indexes a bit higher, it would make commodities soar, hardly what you need to increase earnings and more importantly to feed the masses.......
Commodity prices also have to follow the law of supply/demand. Yes they may try to rise with devaluation expectations but at the same time will be tempered with soft demand. Equities are alot more squishy in this regard (PE valuations, etc.).
Actually the CBs want as much inflation as the system will bear. Right now, that ain't much, but anythiing that can cause some stickiness is being tried. Food prices haven't really fallen back from 1-2 years back so that may be 'locked' into the system.
But even with these concerns about commodities price increases, preventing a debt deflation spiral trumps all. If deflation accelerates downward, debt can't be paid off.....defaults rise and at some point, people will get out of the debt. Game over.
" If deflation accelerates downward, debt can't be paid off.....defaults rise and at some point, people will get out of the debt. Game over."
This comment does not make any sense at all, in that if QEIII or LTRO 2 whatever is implemented by printing and issuing more debt then what?
debt can now be paid back?
it is a case of the head biting its tail, or maybe more to the point fucking yourself ( I mean Europe) with your own dick. I can picture the movie .....
Please excuse me for using the term "easing". Really meant to use plain talk: Printing!
thanks ben.. i new you could give me a +26 on the Nas-fraud futures.. sell away muppets
Why is Tyler saying that S&P 500 futures are down? They are clearly up this morning.
Tyler was a vit early when the story was put out, SPX had to do one more spike to fuck up the few hopefuls that are still buying at 1360 -1364.
correct 1360 -1370 11AM EST
but gold can NOT breakout from horizontal resistance.....
It does seem we have a case of :
(stairs up, elevator down) underway...
The equity markets will rally into this. More printing means decreased value of the currency which means stocks will be priced higher, nominally.
This is the beauty of QE. It keeps the stock markets higher for two reasons, the often touted risk-on trade but the more powerful behind the scenes realization that stocks are a good place to be when a currency is devalued.
I find your post to be "nominally" intelligent.
If you want to play in a fixed game, go ahead.
QE is a hag.
HAHA - BTV - Wilbur Ross not raising enough money for new fund... His distress fund is in distress. I wonder if someone will swoop in and buy it?
and can you tell me whom benefits from an equity bubble that is detached from reality??retail is gone. 401k is now a 201k.. Its levitated by stealing from savers like grannie.it ramps up oil since oil only trades lock step with the market not fundamentals.. the only ones that benefit are corporate insiders,hedgies that cash out and funnel it to campaign funds..
At a personal level, what is happening is a disaster. Of course the Fed and CB's can't deal in the personal level or they would frozen. They have many rationalizations....one being that everyone shared in the "prosperity" going up so all will have to suffer the pain going down. I don't at all support what has happened or is going to happen, it was terribly wrong, but what choice do they have now?
Let the economy sink into a deflationary spiral? That is clearly where things are headed with such an enormous debt overhang across the developed world. Of course I'm not at all convinced that more QE will save the day; but it's about the only thing they can do. Unless of course if society breaks down into anarchy in which case the military will be able to do much more.
Deflation or inflation?
Most all nations are now in the "print til the presses break mode"
I do not think deflation will win the horrible days ahead. Nations will inflate until it's "global Zimbabwe" ..... and then global depression with the loss of perhaps several billion souls. Some in fact will toil to earn their kool aid, and gladly drink it down.
Actually the CBs are very mindful that even the perception of too much printing could ruin trust in the system. So they do as little as possible. However, they will counter at every turn, strong deflationary pressures like what we are seeing in spades now. They see the risk of a deflationary sprial exceeding the risk of losing currency faith from "moderate" printing. Of course everyone has their own definitino of "moderate". Still, as long as the printing only results in inflation that just counters the deflation form credit collapse and pricing destruction, well that is what they are shooting for.
The big question of course is where this all ends with so much latent inflation left in the system. The average person knows nothing of this so the threat to the currency of mass defecting is limited.
Good points. I believe that we have already fully cooked inflation into the hash. They'll simply continue printing because "this time it's different" ...
they have no idea what they are doing
I'm not playing in any game. All in "protected" cash and 25% PM's for insurance/hedge.
Still, I like to try and figure where things are headed. Ultimately, I believe it's going to end badly. But the timeframe is unknown. This could go on (and probably will) for many years.
As pathetic as the numbers were this morning, if you believe them raise your hand.
Here come da Fed! Worst recovery since WWII.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/27/a-regulated-decelerat...
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