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GDP Market Reaction - NEW QE-Off Trade (For Now)

Tyler Durden's picture





 

From the swings and lows of historical revisions to beats across the board of GDP data this morning, it seems the market's pre-occupation with NEW QE is now being faded (modestly for now). Treasuries are 4-5bps higher in yield, S&P 500 futures down around 5pts, Gold down $10, and the USD up modestly. For now, it's QE-off, though no-one seems convinced as EURUSD falls - which fits better with the Fed won't print but ECB will perspective.

 

 

and close up...

 

and on a different note, Facebook has a $22 handle...

 


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Fri, 07/27/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

Look out below

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment AU5K
AU5K's picture

Government Decided Propoganda

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

What's up with Melissa 'small lips' Lee's teeth?  Summer teeth, some are here, some are there.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Short Memories
Short Memories's picture

yawn

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Tough crowd.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment Aziz
Aziz's picture

Christ, if the market wants QE3 they need to mass sell to drive the S&P down to a significantly lower level, buy the fucking dip and enjoy. 

How hard would that be to co-ordinate? Not very — TBTFs and algos could pull it off in less than an hour. So if it's not happening obviously the market isn't hungry enough for it.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Same for the PM bugs who squeal murder when the Gold and Silver prices go down.

Short them to near zero and then buy the ultimate dip!

But no, there is no sanity on either side.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Overfed
Overfed's picture

You won't hear me whining about buying silver when it's on sale!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

AZIZ everyone wants everyone else to sell and get the fk out while they sell some calls and put some shorts on GS recommendations. No one is getting out.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

One point five annualized...wheres my party hat?...lol.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:35 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Im at the point where its either

 

QE3 - off...

and

War(3) - on

~or~

QE3 - on...

and

War(3) - off.

I think its the former...An X-factor event is on the horizon.

 

Its one or the other. It smells like the early 1930's with a bit of 2008 mixed in...

And their is nothing new under the sun...

History is repeating itself.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Subtracting G makes it one percent and everyones doing backflips...I think someone around here called it right, project negative growth, then beat it and wallah...a popcorn fart...lol.

It does smell ;-)

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment RacerX
RacerX's picture

Eh, she doesn't do anything for me. And I prefer Asian women.

Speaking of CNBS, did anyone see Maria and Bwany mix it up? Pretty funny. Good for her for holding his feet to the fire. She was too nice to this clown, imo.

http://realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/07/26/fireworks_cnbcs_bartiromo_vs_barney_frank_on_banks.html

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

What happened to me? This conversation suddenly made me all hot for Maria.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

You also need to get laid, mate.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

But, But, Facebook has a 22 handle....

/sarc

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Too many companies missing and guiding lower.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If the fed does not print and the ECB does the dollar will strengthen once the stupid ass clowns actually understand what currency dilution does to the currency. People are already getting a glimpse of what a strong dollar will do to earnings.

Funny for a short while the masses will actually benefit from prices coming down until Ben takes a bat to their heads after the election.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

Stronger dollar + tax on internet sales beginning Sept + lapse of tax breaks + plunging consumer spending = trouble.

 

Ben has no choice but to hold the dollar down as well as Uber NIRP.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

News Flash - Monty Python Ministry of Silly Walks now in charge of markets.  JH Christ this shit is just ridiculous.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

The economy is a dead parrot. It is no more. It has ceased to be. This is a late economy!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

They buried it in a graveyard about a hundred years ago

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:31 | Link to Comment agNau
agNau's picture

One must think.
This is now a centrally planned economy by design. The smoke and mirrors of chaos is there to aid it's implementation. Just as the global controls of population accelerate (cameras, drones, TSA, HS,...), so does the move toward control of commerce and money on a global scale.

The chaos has increased, and the move to control has increased.

Simply step back from the fray and observe the entire display. It will soon be all out of our hands, and completely in the hands of our "handlers".
Comforting thought!
Here, have a burger.....want fries with that?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

New script for a movie:  Weekend At Bennies where they prop up a dead economy!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment news printer
news printer's picture
Open Letter to the President Of European Central Bank July 27th, 2012 by Rybinski | Posted in: monetary policy

To: President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi

Dear Mr. President,

The public is increasingly convinced that the financial sector in developed countries violates basic ethical principles and take action against the law. Investigations are conducted by prosecutors, and those he held the highest offices of financial institutions shall resign. Today we know that the most important of the world interest rate, LIBOR, was subject to manipulation by which banks achieve financial benefits at the expense of customers. It is not clear what role in the affair played by central banks, I hope that this will be explained effectively in the investigation that continues on both sides of the Atlantic.

Lord's statement yesterday shook the financial markets, dramatically changed exchange rates, stock indices, interest rates on government bonds, derivative instruments. In the current context where Europe could be plunged into the depths of the financial crisis of biblical proportions, it is very important that the standards of conduct of monetary policy in Europe has been maintained at the highest level. Therefore, I believe that you should take the following actions:

- Make public the ECB who knew that he would give you yesterday's comment

- Publish a list of billing all the people who know that this comment will be delivered,

- Publish a list of people outside the ECB, with particular reference to the representatives of the financial sector, which in recent days met anyone who has information that will be delivered this comment

Such monitoring should cut all speculations appearing on the Internet, which suggests that the standards of conducting monetary policy in developed countries have significantly reduced.

Prof. Krzysztof Rybinski

Rector of the University Vistula, Vice President of the NBP in the years 2004-2008

http://www.rybinski.eu/2012/07/list-otwarty-do-prezesa-ebc/

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=pl&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

how does gdp ex auto go up when production is increasing Q|Q?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/table3.htm

And bigger inventory build? Was that the premise of the GS downgrades?

The magic of prior year revisions

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Eur usd has gone full retard since monday, the market is confused as fuck with violent swings in each direction.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment ATM
ATM's picture

There is no "market". It is only a playground of robots.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Look at the revisions. GDP is pretty much a useless metric on which to base anything.

Monkeys meet dart board.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

Australian House prices dropping as RBA warns:

 

The Reserve Bank says housing prices may fall further and believes it is risky to assume they won't.

"It is a very dangerous idea to think that dwelling prices cannot fall," RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in a speech today. "They can, and they have."

"We should never say a crash couldn't happen here,

Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/house-prices-cant-fall-a-dangerous-idea-rba-20120724-22m9v.html#ixzz21pMGAxbC

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

oh ben .. can you please ramp up the  NAS-FRAUD a little more???. people need to exit facebook

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

And SBUX, down 10%. MCD down, UPS down AAPL down. But it is all company specific, does not show what the whole economy is doing.  Ahem!

FB is a useless company. Never should have gone public. Lawsuits for a long time. Social Networking, does nothing for this family.

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

that was the whole reason it went public to cash in on it whilst it was all smoke and mirrors

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Backfire total.

Oh and Spain now at 24.6% unemployment.

Call it as it is: DEPRESSION.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

See Gold got slammed on the news.

How 'bout dat ?!?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is awesome. Metals and stocks resuming their surge back up. Bernanke must be scratching his baldness and saying "oh shit". CNBcrap can try to spin this positively but I guess nobody is getting out of the way.

This dude is going to have to hit print with the dow at 14k and oil at 120 after all.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

    The market will remain insane longer than you can pay attention.

    When you blink, the world has changed and you are fqt.

 

 

Zero Hedge is like tooth-pics for your eye lids; can't miss that next keyboard replacement opportunity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

QENEW-off, buy stawks! I mean, sell stawks? Whatever....YAY!!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Satan
Satan's picture

Anyone else feeling a little flashy crashy?

PS Business Insider are calling you out for a fight TD. Go kick their asses.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Ohh, this gonna be good son!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

I hear FAT FINGER is coming back from early retirement......last I heard he was in Ibiza partying with the money crowd while Spain burns...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

I think we're looking at high probability of coordinated easing across multiple central banks (incluing the ECB).   If it isn't coordinated, then currencies will be swinging and effecting imports/exports.  Second, by coordinated, the ECB will have cover to do what it has wanted to do but supposedly can't.  Are the Germans going to fight all the world's Central Banks. 

Look to Japan, England, ECB, Federal Reserve, China, etc. to be in the mix.

Things are more than serious right now; they are deadly.  The CB's have to be playing for keeps.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

I hope the CBs remember : some things involve risk.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyaLZHiJJnE

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

This is possible, only problem is OIL is near $100, food prices are already on their way to new highs without QE and this type of coordinated action , while temporarily moving the indexes a bit higher, it would make commodities soar, hardly what you need to increase earnings and more importantly to feed the masses.......

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

Commodity prices also have to follow the law of supply/demand.  Yes they may try to rise with devaluation expectations but at the same time will be tempered with soft demand.  Equities are alot more squishy in this regard (PE valuations, etc.).

Actually the CBs want as much inflation as the system will bear.  Right now, that ain't much, but anythiing that can cause some stickiness is being tried.  Food prices haven't really fallen back from 1-2 years back so that may be 'locked' into the system.

But even with these concerns about commodities price increases, preventing a debt deflation spiral trumps all.  If deflation accelerates downward, debt can't be paid off.....defaults rise and at some point, people will get out of the debt.  Game over.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

" If deflation accelerates downward, debt can't be paid off.....defaults rise and at some point, people will get out of the debt.  Game over."

 

This comment does not make any sense at all, in that if QEIII or LTRO 2 whatever is implemented by printing and issuing more debt then what?

debt can now be paid back?

it is a case of the head biting its tail, or maybe more to the point fucking yourself  ( I mean Europe) with your own dick. I can picture the movie .....

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

Please excuse me for using the term "easing".  Really meant to use plain talk:  Printing!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

thanks ben.. i new you could give me a +26 on the Nas-fraud futures.. sell away muppets

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Need More Cowbell
Need More Cowbell's picture

Why is Tyler saying that S&P 500 futures are down?    They are clearly up this morning.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

Tyler was a vit early when the story was put out, SPX had to do one more spike to fuck up the few hopefuls that are still buying at 1360 -1364. 

correct 1360 -1370 11AM EST

but gold can NOT breakout from horizontal resistance.....

It does seem we have a case of :

     (stairs up, elevator down) underway...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

The equity markets will rally into this.  More printing means decreased value of the currency which means stocks will be priced higher,  nominally. 

This is the beauty of QE.  It keeps the stock markets higher for two reasons, the often touted risk-on trade but the more powerful behind the scenes realization that stocks are a good place to be when a currency is devalued.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

I find your post to be "nominally" intelligent.

If you want to play in a fixed game, go ahead.

QE is a hag.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:27 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

HAHA - BTV - Wilbur Ross not raising enough money for new fund... His distress fund is in distress. I wonder if someone will swoop in and buy it?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

and can you tell me whom benefits from an equity bubble that is detached from reality??retail is gone. 401k is now a 201k.. Its levitated by stealing from savers like grannie.it ramps up oil since oil only trades lock step with the market not fundamentals.. the only ones that benefit are corporate insiders,hedgies that cash out and funnel it to campaign funds..

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

At a personal level, what is happening is a disaster.  Of course the Fed and CB's can't deal in the personal level or they would frozen.  They have many rationalizations....one being that everyone shared in the "prosperity" going up so all will have to suffer the pain going down.  I don't at all support what has happened or is going to happen, it was terribly wrong, but what choice do they have now?

Let the economy sink into a deflationary spiral?  That is clearly where things are headed with such an enormous debt overhang across the developed world.  Of course I'm not at all convinced that more QE will save the day; but it's about the only thing they can do.  Unless of course if society breaks down into anarchy in which case the military will be able to do much more.

 

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

Deflation or inflation?

Most all nations are now in the "print til the presses break mode"

I do not think deflation will win the horrible days ahead. Nations will inflate until it's "global Zimbabwe" ..... and then global depression with the loss of perhaps several billion souls. Some in fact will toil to earn their kool aid, and gladly drink it down.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

Actually the CBs are very mindful that even the perception of too much printing could ruin trust in the system.  So they do as little as possible.  However, they will counter at every turn, strong deflationary pressures like what we are seeing in spades now.  They see the risk of a deflationary sprial exceeding the risk of losing currency faith from "moderate" printing.  Of course everyone has their own definitino of "moderate".  Still, as long as the printing only results in inflation that just counters the deflation form credit collapse and pricing destruction, well that is what they are shooting for.

The big question of course is where this all ends with so much latent inflation left in the system.  The average person knows nothing of this so the threat to the currency of mass defecting is limited.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

Good points. I believe that we have already fully cooked inflation into the hash. They'll simply continue printing because "this time it's different" ...

they have no idea what they are doing

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

I'm not playing in any game.  All in "protected" cash and 25% PM's for insurance/hedge.

Still, I like to try and figure where things are headed.  Ultimately, I believe it's going to end badly.  But the timeframe is unknown.  This could go on (and probably will) for many years.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:46 | Link to Comment GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

As pathetic as the numbers were this morning, if you believe them raise your hand.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
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oakley88's picture

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