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As Geithner Says Supercommittee "Holds Key To Rebuiling Confidence" Supercommittee Says "Trillions Of Dollars Apart"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the European drama seemingly on the backburner for a few days (although with so many promises of resignations, it is now Wednesday in Greece and who is PM? Why G-Pap, despite resolute guarantees he would have stepped down by Monday... at the latest... But aaaaaany minute now, he is resigning, promise) it may be finally time to switch attention over the US, and the fact that absent lots and lots of fiscal stimulus, Q4 GDP is rolling over, as virtually everyone has predicted. Amusingly, none other than Tim Geithner provides the perfect segue, having said earlier that "the supercommittee holds "the key" to rebuild confidence." This brings us to the supercommittee itself. And for that we go to Politico: "Congressional Democrats and Republicans are trillions of dollars apart on a deficit reduction deal as the supercommittee nears its Nov. 23 deadline." So, with confidence like that, who needs any doubt. It continues: "The most recent Republican offer, according to Democratic and Republican sources, includes roughly $770 billion in spending cuts and between $550 billion and $600 billion in new revenue from a variety of sources, including selling public lands, increasing the price tag on postage stamps and new energy leases. Republicans also say they’d be willing to limit deductions and certain tax breaks – sure to anger their conservative base – in order to reach nearly $300 billion in new tax revenues. In exchange, Republicans want to change the rate of inflation for Social Security, cut Medicaid and increase Medicare premiums for the wealthy." Needless to say this is going to go nowhere in a hurry. And all of this is happening as the second interim debt ceiling target is about to be breached after two more Treausry auction weeks. But none of this matters: the robots trading this market, saw the word confidence and sent us to highs. After all buy first, ask questions later is what the motto of the NYSE Borse is, or should be going forward. Probably in German - more fitting.

Some more details on the Supercommittee status from The Hill:

Republican supercommittee negotiators are willing to limit tax deductions for upper income households in exchange for lowering tax rates, according to a GOP aide.

 

Republicans say some of the revenue raised from limiting itemized deductions for the wealthy could be used for deficit reduction, and are painting the move as a serious concession made to galvanize the talks two weeks before its Nov. 23 deadline to reach a deal.

 

Democrats, however, argue lowering tax rates would cost the government more revenue than it would raise from changing deductions. They say the GOP offer, as a result, is more of an effort to avoid blame than reach a deal.

 

Republicans say their offer is a shift, since GOP members previously have said any tax increases generated by eliminating tax deductions must be balanced out entirely by lowered rates.

 

The GOP aide cast the idea as a response to a Democratic proposal to limit itemized deductions for the wealthy on mortgages and other tax breaks. The aide said it was not a formal proposal.

 

“This is not a Republican proposal,” the GOP aide said. “Why would Republicans propose increasing taxes? This is Republicans giving something in return for lowered tax rates.”

 

The exact amount of revenue to be used is shifting on an hourly basis depending on the fast moving negotiations, but could be characterized as hundreds of billions of dollars, the aide said.

 

The aide also said the hundreds of billions of dollars would be in the context of a $1.2 trillion package, the smallest possible to avoid across-the-board cuts, and would not include any revenues from economic growth.

And once the details trickle down to the "99" the result will not be pretty:

"This plan would provide the very wealthiest Americans with one of the largest tax rate cuts ever. It's a shell game. A thinly veiled attempt to appear to put revenue on the table while simultaneously removing far more with massive tax cuts for wealthy Americans. This plan is not a solution Democrats or middle class Americans would ever be willing to accept," a Democratic aide familiar with the talks said of the GOP move.

All of the above is irrelevant, simply remember: "Confidence." Cause the Jeethner said so. And no US downgrade. Ever.

 

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Wed, 11/09/2011 - 08:49 | 1860199 Seer
Seer's picture

I'm thinking that those in power just want to, as is always the case when things get tough, retain their power.

My argument is that TPTB cannot stay in power without growth.

Low interest rates, IMO, is a statement on growth.  Everywhere you look growth is stalling.

The entire paradigm is facing collapse.  And, collapse WILL happen because this paradigm could never have expanded indefinitely.  I don't believe that TPTB really want to lose the goose that laid their power egg.  They know that the middle class keeps them protected.  But, they have no control over the collapse because they cannot make that which isn't possible happen: perpetuate something forever.

The "backlash" will vary from place to place and from one intensity to another.  I'd say that the primary question will be at what point down the ladder will our fall be broken.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:22 | 1858914 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I had a dream last night. Well, actually a " Mightmare". 

 

  " Jimmy Cramer" was using , " Timmah Geithner" as a [ SOCK PUPPET ] on Mad (bad) money.     I need to lay off the late night South Park.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:26 | 1858927 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

No worries: some chick in a Victoria's Secret bra on Zerohedge told me it's all good.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:30 | 1858940 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Just stuff the 'cuts' into years 9-10 like last summer, pat yourself on the back for making 'hard choices' and hit the links.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:33 | 1858947 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

"The most recent Republican offer, according to Democratic and Republican sources, includes roughly $770 billion in spending cuts and between $550 billion and $600 billion in new revenue from a variety of sources, including selling public lands..."

Yes, yes, yes!  All of them, including all public buildings and everything else that Leviathan has stolen over its death-dealing lifetime!  Dismantle the American welfare-warfare state and start over!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:05 | 1859032 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Apart from the fact that selling assets is not revenue generating.

It is selling the family silver. No?

Exactly who are they going to sell the assets to?

Would that be the banks that they just bailed out?

Would those be the same banks that are getting free money from the FED?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:22 | 1859304 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Well, um, you see, THE BANKS ALREADY OWN EVERYTHING!  So when their system finally collapses -- AND IT WILL! -- the fire sale can begin.

It will all start with secession, by the way, my guess being that it's a tossup between whether Texas or Alaska starts it.  No matter, though, as long as it starts.

America is dead. Long live America.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:40 | 1858970 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

We are not going down in a blaze of glory. We are going broke 1980"s Soviet Union style. People will just be a little poorer every day. A little more reliant on the system every day. The mega wealthy will be just fine.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:34 | 1860371 Seer
Seer's picture

You're overlooking the fact that when the Soviet Union collapsed the rest of the world wasn't on fire.  And, to people there, yes, it did go out in a blaze of glory: same thing with Cuba, who found themselves to be the first country to experience what a loss of fossil fuel means to an entire country.

Businesses won't be piling in to suck things up (well, they will try, thinking in their mypic way that it's another cycle), as the demand won't be there.

I'd also question whether the "mega wealthy" (wealth being measured how?) will be "just fine."  What countries are they going to flee to?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:44 | 1858980 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Cuts based on what? These morons are not even close and are trying to figure this with made up 9% growth numbers and full employment in 2 years..... Point is, these guys can't even get close when they are making up numbers.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:47 | 1858992 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I mail about 3 letters a year now. So if they increased postage by 10% that would get an additional 13 cents from me. It's a start. 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:54 | 1859008 itstippy
itstippy's picture

We citizens got together and selected our best and brightest to represent us in our Nation's capitol, Washington D.C. 

From this elite group were further selected the best-of-the-best to serve on the critical Deficit Reduction Supercommittee.

A grateful nation anxiously and hopefully awaits the results of the Supercommittee's labors, confident that they will arrive at a solid, fair, pragmatic, and sensible course of action.

Confidence is very high.  You can feel it in the air on Wall Street - confidence simply radiates from the people gathered there.  This will be nothing like the recent farce out of Europe; this will be a shining example of American know-how and git 'er done spirit.  That's what the esteemed Professor Geithner was referring to.  Bullish! 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:56 | 1859016 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Supercommittee

So just how dumb did the Republicans have to be to accept this Democratic trap?

Answer ....

Dumb as shit.

 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:13 | 1859042 Ganja Jane
Ganja Jane's picture

How DUMB does an INDIVIDUAL have to be to accept this 'trap?'

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 08:00 | 1860033 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

How many supercommitte members does it take to change a (energy saving) light bulb?

Answer:  None, as they can't even afford one!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:01 | 1859025 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I just do not understand why you all are so upset. This is what 8 year old siblings do. They argue, fight, yell at each other....and then they call Mommy to fix it.

Nothing new here.

What a crock of ________

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:01 | 1859026 jeffgroove102
jeffgroove102's picture

Pretty easy when you think about it.

1) End the needless drug war

2) Place a tax on prostitution, cannabis, you name it, make it legal, and let people such as the DEA know that their services are no longer required.

3) Get rid of the department of education

4) End perks for politicians and propose pay cuts, it's public service, not royalty. This includes all nameless bureacrats that do not provide much value anyway

5) Tell the dept. of education that they are no longer needed and seen as a redundancy.

6) Obey the constitution

7) Allow the government to only use what it takes in for tax revenues

8) Cut the average dc government workers pay by half

9) End fannie mae and freddie mac

10) Bring the troops back

11) Examine what is being spent on aerospace welfare queens

12) Cut the much hated TSA.

13) Cut the FDA's budget

 

To quote the donald, alot of people are going to be getting told "YOU RE FIRED"

 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:11 | 1859038 Ganja Jane
Ganja Jane's picture

Nice list; I'd add ending the federal reserve too. We won't need the the 'sin' taxes. Get rid of income tax all together! Oh, and get us the eff out of WTO, NATO and UN.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 08:02 | 1860036 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Don't forget number one on the list:  END THE FED!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:03 | 1859027 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

the super shitty itty bitty titty committee in case you missed it. ;)

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:04 | 1859031 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Little Timmy is SUCH a queer... talk to Ron Paul about who should be Treas Sec... Timmy is still Summers puppet, and Goldman's cabin boy.  Oh, and how did ya like AG Holder today, that disgraceful swine?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:11 | 1859039 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Never,  CHASE the trade.  The (Super Duper) commitee, is doing Just that.  Can someone please explaine what qe-3 scenario would look like?

 

 Operation twist, is like a red headed stepchild, that lives in the " Basement".  How would the Fed. infuse the economy with { Yet More Risk ? }  

  I caught nothing from the 2 fed chairpersons suggesting qe-3 in their comments.?  I think the Fed is fascinated with the Mof & BoJ's ability to Screw thenselves into a hole so deep, That not even      ( Chair Satan can see the light of day from)!  

 

    The first Terrestrial Black Hole has been created!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:12 | 1859041 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

scared trolls are now citing statistics about "old" & "young"?

on this site?

don't expect anything whatsoever till about 65 mintues into the 11th hour

we keep asking the fuktards who are doing this to us to fix it;  while people offer them advice and blog about what "must happen" or what is "best" usually according to the false dichotomies of the MSM.  the CFR has its puppets well-placed for the "drama of america"

we went thru it here in august and it ended in this bullshit and r.paul sponsoring a bill not to pay 1.7 Tril $ to the FED b/c "we owe it to ourselves"

so, how's that bill doing?  when will it reach prez0's desk? 

if this hits the fan, we can always go back to idea of minting the quadrillion-dollar coin, eh?

deadlines are for taxpayers, BiCheZ!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:19 | 1859064 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Ref. Mexican currency revalue on that one.  Better yet Ref. Argentina revalue on that one.  Best of all ! Ref. Asian Financial crisis!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:44 | 1859155 itstippy
itstippy's picture

The fuktards are striving mightily to come up with a most impressive fix for us citizens.  Calling the fuktards "fuktards" doesn't help their concentration any, and could adversly affect the Nation's confidence in the fuktards' final plan.

Have you sent your quadrillion-dollar coin idea to http://www.deficitreduction.gov?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 23:01 | 1859423 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

L0L!!!

we try!

the coinage idea came up last summer when all were sweating the debt ceiling fiatsco which led to this here fiatsco, which, suffice it to say, is the archetypal international bankster compleat fuking fiatsco

the idea was to have timmah mint a trillion-dollar coin, but the republicans in the house wouldn't stand up to enforce the debt ceiling

i just added a few zeros

what the hell, why not?

local boyz grow hair, make noise:  1983 Night Ranger "Don't Tell Me You Love Me" (Rock Palace) - YouTube

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:17 | 1859053 ivars
ivars's picture

One more proof of cash hoarding PLUS contraction of US money supply as causes for deflation and/or GDP reduction  very soon:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=35018#p35018

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:22 | 1859072 whosetosay
whosetosay's picture

"the supercommittee holds "the key" to rebuild confidence."

As Geithner Says Supercommittee "Holds Key To Rebuiling Confidence"

I am normally a lurker here... tonight, I've had it.

You fucking asshole geithner, no one's listening to you any longer and ummm, no, the super committee does NOT hold the key nor do they hold any credibilty. No one voted for them and no one's listening to them.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:57 | 1859203 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Politically, there is no real solution. That is why the U.S. will default. The idiots in Washington will hold the partisan line and blame the other guy. Deficit spending cuts will not reduce the debt. It will slow it down so the FED can raise rates. Any reduction in deficit spending will just go to the FED.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:09 | 1859250 nah
Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:09 | 1859253 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

BEHEAD ASSHOLE GEITNER AND CREMATE THE REST.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:26 | 1859319 chindit13
chindit13's picture

I thought those Stress Tests were the key to confidence?  Please don't tell me you lied, Timmy.

On a serious note, this FY's deficit alone will add about $40 billion in new interest payments, assuming rates across the UST yield curve remain the same.  Where I lose a little confidence is when I do a sensitivity analysis on interest payments vs. market rates.  Using CBO deficit projections---which are always overly optimistic---then just moving rates back to what they were in 2005, it shows that the increases in interest payments alone---which add to the overall deficit---approach one trillion dollars.

Thus, even to kick the can, we need massive cuts and ZIRP forever.  What are the odds?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:50 | 1859403 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

The stupendous stupid committee was a superbly stupid stalling tactic.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 23:46 | 1859511 Make Less Pay More
Make Less Pay More's picture

This non elected committee is bullshit and is most likely illegal! No matter as as all rule of law appears to be dead. The "key" to confidence is bringing back the rule of law and justice for all. The greed, arrogance, fraud and everthing else sprouting around us all is becoming more disgusting by the day!

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 01:06 | 1859666 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

the supercommittee is totally unconstitutional. i'm kind of shocked how it hasn't been sued yet.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 01:15 | 1859679 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

Never fear, the Republicans will fold as they always do.  Tax and spend and spend and spend is alive and well.  The deal will simply look as follows:  Raise taxes, spend 10X the estimated revenue from the tax increase for 9 years, then in the 10th year, cut it all off.  Hey, makes sense to me - another balanced plan.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 08:02 | 1860035 rgilliam37
rgilliam37's picture

Geithner could balance his own check book much less pay his taxes. The guy is a complete clown. My dog has a higher IQ

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 13:17 | 1861319 Mark701
Mark701's picture

You forgot to add that in exchage for these tax hikes and cuts they want to keep Bushs tax cuts which once again puts the whole deal in the hole by over 100 billion. All I can say that anytime the GOP wants to give the middle class anything other than a hard time, beware.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 13:17 | 1861320 Mark701
Mark701's picture

You forgot to add that in exchage for these tax hikes and cuts they want to keep Bushs tax cuts which once again puts the whole deal in the hole by over 100 billion. All I can say that anytime the GOP wants to give the middle class anything other than a hard time, beware.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 14:35 | 1861872 johnjb32
johnjb32's picture

Expect that we will arrive at November 23 with absolutely no solutions from the Super Committee. Expect that the cuts that follow almost immediately will be brutal and will impact subsidies to state and local governments exceptionally hard. -- Michael C. Ruppert

 

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