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Germany: The Final Frontier... Whose True Debt/GDP Is Now 140%
From Mark Grant, Author of Out of the Box And Onto Wall Street
Germany: The Final Frontier
“It always looks darkest just before it gets totally black.”
-Peanuts
Data Mining
Over the last several weeks I have tried to bring a more accurate picture of the debts of a number of nations to you. There has been no bias and the figures have stood on their own merit. The statistical component of the European Union, Eurostat, is quite clear; they do not count guarantees or contingent liabilities as part of any nation’s debt. We might all note that if Nestle or IBM or General Electric did this they would find their senior executives jailed for Fraud but never mind; this is the methodology of the EU which quite obviously masks the truth. The problem then is not the simple math used to obtain a more accurate debt to GDP ratio but in digging out the various guarantees, contingent liabilities and obligations of any member nation of the European Union. “Time consuming” would be the accurate words because you have to sleuth around like Sherlock Holmes to come up with the data. Yes, it is all there somewhere or another but it is nowhere all together and so must be found.
In the case of all of the countries that I have examined to date it has been on a stand-alone basis; meaning NOT inclusive of their obligations for the EU, the ECB or various other European institutions which would only increase their actual debt to GDP ratios. For the nations examined to date I concentrated on their guarantees; bank guarantees, regional guarantees, derivatives guaranteed by the sovereign, the debts of various institutions with sovereign guarantees and so forth. Each examination has been country specific because each nation has different policies. Yesterday in Boston I met with the very bright folks at Standish Mellon and promised them a more accurate appraisal of not a troubled country but of the leading country in the European Union, Germany, and so I deliver as promised.
Here we find not the usual issues with the periphery nations but obligations and guarantees for the entire European construct. The analysis of Germany, past their stated GDP and their stated debt to GDP ratio is really a study of the EU/ECB themselves to determine the size and the liabilities that are born by their largest economic member so that we can fully assess the financial condition of Germany and not blindly accept what is officially put out in the Press.
Germany
German Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $3.2 trillion
Official German Sovereign Debt: $2.618 trillion
Percentage of Liabilities at the European Union: 27%
Percentage of Liabilities at the ECB 18.94%
Germany’s Percentage of the ECB Debt ($4 trillion) $757.6 billion
German annual cost for the EU budget $46.36 billion
German Guarantees for the Stabilization Funds $280.6 billion
German Guarantees for the Macro Financial Assistance Fund $211.14 billion
German Target-2 Liabilities $656 billion
German Guarantee for the EIB Debt $157.29 billion
Sovereign Guarantee for KFW $588 billion
Total German Sovereign Debt & Guarantees $5.315 trillion
Official debt to GDP Ratio 81.8%
Actual German Debt to GDP Ratio 139.8%
So there you have it; place your bets.
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the wrecking crew (politicians and bankers) of all nations have done it again to once prosperous Germany ..and the rest of Europe... and America... and Japan
what a 'surprise'
Politicians & Bwankers: no nation too big for these vandals
BIS: US Debt-to-GDP: 400+% by 2040?
Federal Debt is not nearly the whole story - here is how countries stack up :
http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/10403-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz1qFL9ymCH
We might all note that if Nestle or IBM or General Electric did this they would find their senior executives jailed for Fraud
substitute ' jailed for fraud' to promoted or just about anything else and you'd be closer to the truth
the big guys dont get jailed for fraud
bigger the better
example: corzine
you can add as many others as you feel nescessary
Freudian slip of Merkel on her recent trip to Greece:
IMMIGRATION OFFICER: Nationality?
MERKEL: German
IMMIGRATION OFFICER: Occupation?
MERKEL: No. I am here for just a few days.
LOL - really good one
btw, Target-2 liabilities? Eh? I was under the firm impression that the BundesBank had Target-2 Assets...
anyway, the quality of the article is visible in the fact that there is no comparison whatsoever with other countries...
"here is how countries stack up"
Your linked article does not include T-bonds held by the SS "trust fund" in U.S. government debt. It also does not net out financial services assets from liabilities to get an accurate picture of UK debt, since the UK is a large financial cent(re).
So the U.S. should move up your list and the U.K. should move down.
All of which is academic, of course, since unfunded liabilities are staggering in both of those welfare states.
I would have thought that's because once this all plays out those financial assets will be worth something close to zero yet the liabilities will still be 100%.
@markmotive
Yeah... & consider all of that is basically while in ZIRP... IOW ~ We're fucked...
my roomate's sister makes $85 hourly on the computer. She has been fired from work for 6 months but last month her paycheck was $16158 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more here ..... http://lazyCash9.com
Germany is in debt only because it has to give loan money to people to buy their machines. Otherwise this most prudent of nation-states should never have been in this position in the first place. You should see Deutsche Bank's mortgage arm in India, you'd think they learned their lesson? Nope. Likewise, Mercedes Benz on Benz credit? Sure..... three payslips... approved.
Of course, doesn't help that the Vatican is still after Germany's ass for being so protestant, so end game Germany will suffer again.
Germany/Japan/China/US: Posterchildren for a supply-side construct gone wild. Can/will not end well.
ori
social-networking-and-the-quantification-of-emotions/
Nice to see you around ORI, there is a hierarchy among the nations you mentioned ORI. I guess you can imagine that the 'victors' have set up game rules via BWIs after WWII.
Germany is and has been in self preservation mode for some time.
to be fair to "fiscally prudent" Germany twas they that 'missed' the 4% budget deficit rules of the EU that let all the other scamps of Europe through the gate
Germany has in fact recently passed a number of budgetary rules for their own national and regional Govts which if applied (in 2012-2014) will be the end of funding (pissing away) more money on Europe
Name a 'fiscally prudent' nation? Ok, now.
Stay on topic schizo.
Thst is an AWFULLY big "IF".
"Germany is in debt only because it has to give loan money to people to buy their machines. Otherwise this most prudent of nation-states should never have been in this position in the first place"
Pffft... So let me understand that... The ONLY reason I'm in bad shape is because I have to give other people money to buy lemonade at my lemonade stand?
I'm A VICTIM OF COICUMSTANCES!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxAk3B_zS5k
"Otherwise this most prudent of nation-states should never have been in this position in the first place."
Agreed. We should have just let them keep making planes. We'd have a flying saucer by now if we did.
Whoop's there goes the apple tree!!
Germany was such a nice country, oh well another log on the fire of Government Stupidity....
Zero Govt
It's all of the plan moving toward one world government.
Every state has to be roughly at the same level for it to work.
as if debt/gdp was a meaningful ratio? its useless, it doesnt look at the assets side, its just to make it simple for average joe to believe he understands something, but really it doesnt mean anything without the remaining data of a country.
Bomb ze PIIGS!
OT: New iPad's heat a non-issue.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57401047-37/confirmed-new-ipads-heat-a...
Thanks for keeping us all informed on this critical issue.
We're all counting on you.
But what if you price it in gold?
NEIN!!
"The Wealth of Nations" is overdue for a re-write...
Deutschland uber phallas-ee
Who gives a shit?
the Germans will once they realise the politicos and bwankers have wrecked their industrious country for the 3rd time in under a century
This is really the only thing that I fear. We don't have that anger culture like the French. Blood will be shed. And everything we had achieved since WWII will be blown away. Berserker mode.
I will vote for the NPD (Nazos) in all elections until the Euro is abolished!
They also could channel the public anger by scapegoating capitalism itself via MSM, then install a multi-party crypto-commie regime (Regierung der Nationalen Einheit/Sozialen Gerechtigkeit or s.th. ...).
Sometimes it feels, like the show has already begun.
Freiheit oder Tod, bitchezz.
ROTFL. Germans are special: They weren't even able to have a proper revolution. Not once. If you've ever been looking for trusty sheep who will never put up real resistance, look no further.
We should try this for the U.S.
you have ...just replace Merkal with Barny Frank
"We might all note that if Nestle or IBM or General Electric did this they would find their senior executives jailed for Fraud"
~~~
Well, "IBM & Nestle" anyway... GE is in bed with OWEBAMA so they'd get a free ride...
1 out of 3, Buffet took about a 5% interest IBM late in 2011 :)
Yeah ~ & I think Nestle is a Swiss based company anyway, so it looks like we're SOL...
The entire western world is fucked. Verify that your physical gold and silver is still there, shut down your computer and enjoy life.
When the SHTF, you will be notified.
'There has been no bias and the figures have stood on their own merit. The statistical component of the European Union, Eurostat, is quite clear; they do not count guarantees or contingent liabilities as part of any nation’s debt.'
There really is no 'objective' view on these matters. By and large it's all open to interpretation. Also, since politics is basically synonymous economics there isn't really much use in looking at the figures and pretending that it is a mathematical matter mostly.
To boldly go... where no debt slave has gone before... or whatever
Hogan!!!
All road leads to The Fall of Frankfurt
All roads lead to Frankfurt in the Fall? For Oktoberfest?
ori
Germany's gift to the world - Beer, brauts, and breasts.
http://www.demotivationalposters.org/image/demotivational-poster/1010/ok...
Thank you HD that post put a smile on my face...
My pleasure mate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRJDxqKpb2k&feature=player_embedded
The Oktoberfest is in Munoch, not Frankfurt.
Yawn ... What´s the news here? Show me a country whose real debt is same as the "official" one.
How about North Korea?
Punish the winners to reward the losers.....then inflate like heck (Hell) ! It's called "Aggravated Pumping" ! Monedas 2012 Deja vu again and again !
It really sucks when the gut feeling I had back in 2009 pans out. This shit is scary to me. Have you ever thought you were nuts for being the only one in the room not following the herd? What I fail to understand is how people think everything is hunkie dorrie. You better learn a skill you can use to produce something people will need if and when this system implodes. Otherwise you will be starving to death. Oh and some PM's may help you to get through it for the short term.
GCT
There are many stories a from people who have lived through a collapse.
My Ukrainian neighbor understands what happened when the Soviet Union fell and how things are very similar to day.
It isn't like it will be Mad Max or a Zombie Apocalypse.
More like living in India or China. Lots of dirt poor people clogging the streets and working for scraps.
What can you say about a country whose national food looks like a penis and whose national beverage looks like piss ? Monedas 2012 Comedy Jihad Sauerkraut Fest
"...senior executives jailed for Fraud..."
Take a picture folks. This is the first and last time you'll ever see this word combination in public.
Hey, I'm a quarter German ! I can have fun with my people ! Monedas 2012 It's like Eddy Murphy saying nigger !
The Germans were the first who opened the “gates” of Europe to the non-Europeans. They borrowed money from foreigners to make a war with their “brothers” and they did not know who would profit from it at the end. The result is what we face today …Americans conquered Germany and tutored Europe. It was in their interest that the secondary German actors undertook this a priori lost war. Therefore, this is why they took part in the war against the Germans. They fought against those whom they had been financing to lose …Things are simple …There is no mystery in that that requires for secret information or complex thinking.
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.htm...
Whoever wishes to “set foot” on Europe and demolish it, the only thing he/she has to do is to “fool” the Germans. For a second time in less than fifty years, Europe’s idiots become the victims of foreigners and they serve their interests at the expense of Europe …it is for the second time that they take money from foreigners and they turn against their European “brothers” under their lenders’ orders …it is for the second time that the family’s fool takes “candies” from the “child abuser” of the neighbourhood in exchange to get him into the “bedroom” where the younger “siblings” sleep …In the “bedroom” which is common today due to the European Union.
Authored by Panagiotis Traianou
Where did you dig up that "Moron's Manifesto" ? You are a Kommunist Kook ? Monedas 2012 Greek Communist Liberation Front ?
Feel free to educate yourself further here:
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/search/label/ENGLISH
.
and if you can read German, feel free to learn more here:
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/search/label/GERMAN
.
I did like your reference to "Phoenician Loan Sharks" ! May I use it in my humorous presentations ? I will any way ! In a hyperbolic Keynesian monetary phuck fest......it's good to be a debtor ! To the victor go the spoils ! Print like a bitch and borrow like a whore ! It's our way of managing the world and making the world pay for all we have given ! Monedas 2012 Print, Inflate and Borrow into oblivion ! The wealthy debtor countries are hoarding gold.....they know what's coming.....they are making it happen.....and their dominance of the unwashed will be enhanced ! There's a vacuum of leadership from third world countries.....they deserve the ass phucking they will get !
Shit smells the same in any language. But you're right: Nothing can be so bad that it cannot be used as a bad example to help other people to learn something useful.
Anyone know the true GDP/Debt ratio for the UK, with all it's off balance sheet accounting and PFI's etc.?
... voilà
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15820601
Anyone in government ever hear of GAAP?
Nothing will happen, but i can imagine voter participation dropping to around 30 % and below the next elections.
These figures do not include the cost of recapping their banks. At the height of the bubble, Deutsche Bank was levered at 85:1.
No wonder America in decline. Math skills look to be seriously eroded.
Total German Soverign Debt & Gurantees / German GDP = 166.09%
$5.315 trillion / $3.2 trillion = 166.09%
Actual German Debt to GDP ratio is not 139.8%, it is 166.09%
So it is worse than you say.
So sorry, if you can't do math, you can't compete.