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Global Dollar Liquidity Freeze Leads To Pervasive Sell Off

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just two charts confirming that we have entered a complete USD liquidity lock up, and that the global coordinated USD swap line rescue operation will be launched any minute: both the US FRA-OIS and the EUR Basis Swap are at multi year extremes. The entire dollar funding market is now at levels not seen since the Lehman collapse and is effectively frozen. Only this time it is much, much worse as never before has the global central bank cadre been assumed and implied to be backstopping the global liquidity cascade. Ex-out the implied backstop by the monetary authorities, and liquidity is now locked up more than ever in the history of capital markets. The liquidity crunch explains why everyone is liquidating the one asset that is performing best YTD to procure much needed dollars - gold.

FRA-OIS 3M:

FRA-OIS 3M - LT:

And the EUR Basis Swap:

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:39 | 1887893 flacon
flacon's picture

Paper gold, none the less...

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:03 | 1887914 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Open swap lines, Bernank, Open swap lines!

Print, Trichet! Print!

[Voiceover by the actress playing young Jenny Curran in Forrest Gump]

Basic arithmetic just called and said there can be no happy ending, no matter The Bernank, The Trichet, The Merkel, Sarkozy or Dudley does/says, and no matter what the CEO of Jeffries, Mr. Dick Handler, claims, and that when it comes to CONfidence games, mathematics ultimately and always is in control of the show.

 

*Barton Biggs just heard of two stocks with the ticker LNKD and GRPN that he says will be the Standard Oil of the 21st century and he's double-fisted buying (he claims he'll even sell his shares of The East India Trading Company to raise cash if need be).

**Abby Joseph Cohen announced, via satellite feed somewhere on Lord Blankfeins Bug Out ranch/compound in Paraguay, that she sees a lot of upside potential for the global economy and equities, and is therefore, quite bullish.

***A whole slew of wannabe Stevie Cohens, seeing the fix that Stevie Cohen is in, just announced that they're sick of client redemptions flowing in hot & heavy, that they "should've went to med school," and are taking their ball home while acknowledging that there still will be a highly rigged game (that they're implicitly admitting they don't have any influence over, no matter how large their AUM) despite their lack of participation in it.

****Steve LIESman just tweeted that it's important, despite what is actually the very scary reality of the economic times, for The Bernank to perpetuate CONfidence, and he's upset with Mark Zandi, Christina Romer, Austan Goolsbee, and last, but not least, his cohorts at cnBSc for not doing a better job at doing so.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:16 | 1888102 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Are there any greater fools left or have they all left the building?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:40 | 1888765 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Yes. Stay tuned for the Supercomittee next Wednesday. Lots of greater fools devising lies there.

Got FAZ?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:20 | 1888113 trav7777
trav7777's picture

silver is getting absolutely destroyed.  I guess $60 isn't happening next week anytime soon.

A lot of bagholders been created by silver pumpers lately

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:01 | 1888412 akak
akak's picture

Which pumpers, exactly, lately?  And "bagholders"?  What a blinkered, short-term mindset you have.  It ain't over until the fat lady sings --- and, I hope, stomps the shit out of your scrawny ass.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:22 | 1888594 Greenspan Shrugged
Greenspan Shrugged's picture

Next stop gold at $1450 bitchezzz!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:53 | 1888881 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Greenspan Shrugged

 

 Next stop gold at $1,450 bitchezzz!

 

Great, will be online and ordering like a SOB.(<:

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:12 | 1888517 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

My back is so scarred, the beatings no longer hurt.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 18:58 | 1889474 oldman
oldman's picture

I only wish I could give the number of greens you deserve

Thanks for the lightness!!!!    om

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:14 | 1888541 Saro
Saro's picture

I rushed to my safe to make sure the paper price adjustment didn't cause my physical silver to suddenly dissolve into the air.

Nope, still there. Phew. Guess I'm not a bagholder then.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:32 | 1888684 jonan
jonan's picture

lol, almost sharted when i read that...

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:52 | 1888876 trav7777
trav7777's picture

ur stack is buying less of everything else today, bagholder

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:55 | 1888909 Saro
Saro's picture

Only if I'm selling it today, shithead.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:28 | 1889124 trav7777
trav7777's picture

ah the old canard of bagholders "my account value isn't 0 because I haven't pressed the sell button"

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 22:48 | 1889210 akak
akak's picture

I always wondered what the hybrid offspring of a douchebag and an asswipe would look (and act) like.

I wonder no longer.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 18:02 | 1889282 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Eh?  When did silver go to zero?

I want to buy an infinite amount at that price.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 19:30 | 1889602 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I've offered $5 plus an additional bonus of $10 for each ounce of silver someone- anyone - wishes to dig from my back yard, and I've had no success finding any takers.

Lazy farkers.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 18:12 | 1889307 Saro
Saro's picture

You're expecting silver to go to zero? Let me know if you have any to sell at that price.

I don't care what silver trades for today or tomorrow.  I might care what it trades for in six months or a year, but until I do the daily price is meaningless noise, and I haven't actually gained or lost anything until I pull the trigger.

This isn't rocket science.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 20:59 | 1889833 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Hypothetical scenario: Silver goes to $5/oz, and the USD goes to toilet paper. Which would you rather have. I sure wouldn't put that dirty coke money in my rear. Fire starter maybe.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:56 | 1888915 fuu
fuu's picture

Today being the only operative word in that comment.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:57 | 1888923 akak
akak's picture

ur stack is buying less of everything else today, bagholder

Behold the sound of one brain cell yapping.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:38 | 1888744 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What, you mad that all your silver is going down in value, Trav?  Why didn't you sell when you were talking so much shit?

Could it be that you are a contemptable hypocrite who wants everyone to be poor or dead so they can't use any of your precious oil?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:53 | 1888889 trav7777
trav7777's picture

i've been thinking...there is no credible way that anybody could be as stupid as you continually appear to be, so you simply have GOT to be a shill for someone trying to create lots of silver bagholders.  It's either that or you actually DO believe the moronic stuff you type, in earnest.  I'm just not willing to believe yet that anyone could possibly be that dumb.  Convince me.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:01 | 1888947 akak
akak's picture

As bitter and hateful as you continually are, it must really suck to be you.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:29 | 1889132 trav7777
trav7777's picture

nah it's actually awesome to be me.

I guess I am a bit of a bagholder; I just bought some silver...cufflinks.  From Hermes.  Just to celebrate being awesome

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 18:04 | 1889287 tmosley
tmosley's picture

So awesome your wife and kids left you?

I guess they were jealous of your awesomeness.

Your life is pretty shitty, dude.  You just can't admit it because that would require that you take some fucking responsibility for your situation.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 20:29 | 1889761 trav7777
trav7777's picture

huh?  kids are right here dude, the wife i had to get rid of

You're pretty brazen for a dude who wants to stack silver and lord it over starving people

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 21:00 | 1889837 DollarMenu
DollarMenu's picture

You know trav777, sometimes you act like an inflamed hemorrhoid,

you hang out just waiting to get irritated.

You can be really annoying and disruptive.

I can see why you can't keep a wife.

I pity your kids.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 21:12 | 1889854 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

Maybe there's hope for you yet. I assume you are buying new, at a retail store, because you feel like it. Not on CL, and not just because it's some random crap being liquidated

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:15 | 1889043 tmosley
tmosley's picture

How can I convince you of ANYTHING when you hear only what you want to hear, and know only what you heard?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:30 | 1889139 trav7777
trav7777's picture

well, you managed to convince me that you're pretty frickin stupid, so don't sell yourself short, man

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:55 | 1889244 akak
akak's picture

Congratulations on your graduation to full fuckwad troll.

You can expect automatic red arrows from me for your every comment from now on.  You've proven yourself to be little more than a divisive, hate-filled, narcissistic troll and complete asshole.  Thank you for allowing me to skim over each one of your posts as irrelevant going forward.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 20:30 | 1889763 trav7777
trav7777's picture

oh nooooooooooooooooo

the mighty AKOCK is going to click my red arrow...wtfever will I do? How will I live??  How will I find the strength to carry on?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 19:04 | 1889496 oldman
oldman's picture

Come on, dudes

This is too much fun to be a carrying on so

You two sound like a couple of brothers of mine

The sun is shining even on the other side of the world

Always shining that sun

the organic shit is happening and we are a part of it

What a great fucking day even if my pocket is not so full as it was                 om

 

Fri, 11/18/2011 - 21:06 | 1889497 oldman
oldman's picture

oops

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:45 | 1888312 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

"Open swap lines, Bernank, Open swap lines!

Print, Trichet! Print!"

Geithner got a very cold shoulder several months ago when he went preaching the US "monetary" gospel of Bernanke to the EU.  Given that he used to run the NYFRB, I wonder if the Fed is going to let the EU twist a bit before doing more to "help out". 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:00 | 1888417 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Trichet no longer has control over the EZ printing press

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:13 | 1888526 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Well aware of Draghi's comings, and Smaghi's goings.  Take it up with Truth in Sunshine.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:54 | 1888575 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Right; Trichet doesn't have control of the ECB printing press unless Merkel & her loyalists put the German People on the open spit and roast them toasty in lieu of the PIIGS(+France) that should be roasted given the way the EU Member States have governed themselves since this brilliant idea (/s) of a union between nations as different as Germany & Italy was hatched and implemented.

But if the German People allow themselves to be sacrificed to the bottomless pit welfare states that are PIIGSFUK (PIIGS+France+UK), well then, Trichet will be a busy little printer.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:44 | 1887915 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Is it time for the asset sales to raise liquidity to commence? How low is low?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:51 | 1887936 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

ppl had 15 years to participate in the bubble(s).  All that wealth was phantom wealth (bubble wealth), and unsustainable.  Now, we revert back to the mean, and 'real' price discovery, unless Central banks intervene, forcing future adjustments to be more severe.  So wealth preservation is the priority.  Anyone owning risk will be steamrolled.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:14 | 1888085 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

correct, that is what SHOULD happen....however it will not, because the fed will pull out all the stops to keep markets from reverting to pre bubble mean

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:22 | 1888125 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You don't get it. If they do that the cost-structure of owning the same assets explodes. That alone further depresses asset values like real estate, most people's #1 wealth asset. And margins get squeezed across the board, requiring further downsizing and offshoring. Finally capital flies overseas

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:19 | 1888110 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yes. Can you imagine how many yuppies and wannabes are locked into unrealistic cost structures based on pre-crisis asset prices? And they're being squeezed by rising input prices

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:37 | 1888134 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The yuppies & wannabes were last heard booking their limited time promotional 'Want To Get Away?' flights to fantasy island courtesy of Southwest Airlines (also known as The Bernank Special).

The real inner sanctum already have their private jets fueled & waiting to be fired up and their compounds ready in places like Paraguay and certain patches of very rough terrain in Colorado.

 

In the end, The Bernank will be known as the boy who blew bubbles so that very important friends of the New York Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank could hitch their rides to the last opportunity to suckle the remaining lifeblood of taxpayers

Basic Math says:

"Just like the mother in the movie 'Blow,' the inevitable process that has to occur, global deleveraging, on a scale at least equal to (actually far more so given mark-to-fantasy valuations  and leveraging gamesmanship) the circa-1981 through 2011 credit fed and central bankster sponsored debt bubble, is a complete and total bitch."

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:59 | 1888409 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We're totally on the same wavelength. Uber yuppies have their bugout bags packed. Average yuppies are stuck with feet in concrete, struggling to keep what they have. 

The circa 1981 Fed made it policy to stripmine the US productive economy and replace it with financialized KoolAid. Build massive overcapacity and slash median wages to offset money printing on a massive scale. They were just lucky that an oil shock didn't happen sooner

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:34 | 1888225 ffart
ffart's picture

So your thesis is that after 90 years of intervening markets, the Fed will just stop all the sudden and things will go back to how they were? If they stop intervening it's just your queue that there's no longer any possible hope of the US dollar continuing to exist and to start emptying shelves at the supermarket.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:59 | 1888410 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

No, my thesis is that the Federal Reserve 'Bank' is pushing on a string, pulling on a thread, shouting down a well/rabbit hole, and that its demise has already been planned, given what is to transpire, and that its successor has already been formed and is waiting in the wings, with a similar mission statement, only to be carried out with a more global focus and more global authority (think SDRs and other 'world weighted' things, etc.).

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 20:16 | 1889726 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

Remember when all that new design US currency got stuck in the printer and had to be stored so it could be manually sorted...

That was a coincidence, wasn't it?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:50 | 1887953 jdelano
jdelano's picture

There's no such thing as a Sanity Claus, no rally.  He who sells first wins, profit taking time.  

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:06 | 1888017 CClarity
CClarity's picture

oops

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:01 | 1888027 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Long end treasury traders getting whipped!

The algos in rest of CDS market gonna go crazy and fail as unwind goes parabolic.  The hedges fail. Peeps unloading gold, silver, oil, anything that will get US$ so get out of dollar liquidity trap.  

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:17 | 1888104 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Like I always say, it's not panicing if you're the first one out the door.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:23 | 1888136 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That door may turn out to be a lot narrower than people expected considering how many want to push through

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:59 | 1888014 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

One more (major) sell-off before QE3. I`m holding my breath on it.

http://journey-to-alpha.blogspot.com/2011/11/one-more-sell-off-before-qe-3.html

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:11 | 1888071 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

No way with 2+% GDP and CPI.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:25 | 1888147 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Don't forget crude price plus pressure from overseas to keep dollar-denominated paper values from nosediving

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:34 | 1888226 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

QE3 No later December 13 FED Meeting....  Maybe alot sooner.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:08 | 1888457 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

QE3, in similar fashion to QE2, will only accelerate the process of fundamental economic decline we're experiencing at WARP speed, as SNAP cards will buy 50% less grub, and unemployment/underemployment spike as those looking for the few jobs open or who are working at low wage jobs or part time pass on the opportunity to pour their whatever money they have left or can borrow and wages they earn into increasingly expensive gas tanks, utility and grocery bills and medical treatments for those pesky and painful ailments.

I'm not saying you're prediction will be wrong (or correct), but just pointing out some to be expected consequences.

Deleveraging is a mofo, and when The Bernank tries to postpone the laws of physics, it only gets more mofo-ey.

 

*p.s. - We're under the auspice of QE-lite right now, at any rate, given Fed churning/burning through and liquidating portions of its toxic sludge fund to repurchase more toxic sludge.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:11 | 1888505 redpill
redpill's picture

In dealing with these exponential graphs, when you get closer and closer to that little sideways 8 things sure do start to speed up.

Keep your hands and arms inside the train at all times!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:56 | 1888914 trav7777
trav7777's picture

until the g-forces pull them off?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 20:46 | 1889806 Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

a visual reminder of my last SLV/GLD encounter.....

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFIDVMYx34o&NR=1

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:45 | 1887894 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

At what price does the Giant Squid go private?

-44% YTD 

Know that, and one could extrapolate the EUR/USD bottom.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:47 | 1887928 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Right after the record bonuses for fraud.

Bank on it.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:52 | 1887941 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

We don't say fraud we say providing liquidity.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:58 | 1888002 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

The question I would like answered is, who (or what ) the Devil is propping up BAC this sesion ? RTQ: + 0.02/5.92

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:05 | 1888034 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Read this one:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40530212/Goldman_Sachs_2011_Forecast_Stocks_Gold_...

Goldman’s global investment team rates U.S. Large Cap Commercial Banks among its "Top" Trades for 2011.

LOL!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:24 | 1888142 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

"Underweight consumer staples" for 2011, quoth the Vampire Squid.

Now then, what has Philip Morris Intl. done this year ? Up some 21% ? Of course, BAC has been a real winner -- on the short side, down some 55% YTD. Never buy what a cephalopod is peddling. Your capital will be drawn into the Deep, never again to see the light of day.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:57 | 1887992 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Squid's forecast from a year ago:

"Goldman Sachs is bullish on the U.S. economy for 2011, and forecasts U.S. stocks will see their third straight year of gains.
The investment banking powerhouse sees the S&P 500 gaining nearly 25 percent to a level of 1450 in the next 12 months, fueled by strong corporate profits, easy monetary policies and an improving U.S. economy. "

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:15 | 1888093 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

GS will not go private at any price.

As a "private" company, they would be gambling with their own money.

That was the whole idea behind going "public" in the first place.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:40 | 1887896 geneb
geneb's picture

Gulp

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:41 | 1887899 catch edge ghost
catch edge ghost's picture

Sorry. I can't help. I ran out of buy before they ran out of dip.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:43 | 1887912 redpill
redpill's picture

lol right there with you brother

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:57 | 1887993 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if you didn't get your dollars on that last dip, it may be too late 

they still have dip, but they've run out of dollars!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:18 | 1888108 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I will cherish your words forever

now I have to clean up my notebook

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:42 | 1887902 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

I've advised not to buy when gold went back to $1800 because it was too early after the September correction and because Gold was a lot higher than its moving averages. So here is the correction.
I think fair range is between $1560 and $1700 with $1640 the fair value (for the time being).
So between $1640-$1700 is ok and between $1560-$1640 is very good value.
If gold brakes super strong support at $1560 then it is fucked, it may go down a lot.
Regarding Silver, I say it again: too dangerous right now because it is a lot more volatile than Gold. The GSR keeps going up and that is a bad sign. So my advice:  avoid buying Silver until the GSR starts falling again (on a monthly basis) or until it gets ridiculously high (like 80 for example).
A part from that, don’t fucking sell your physical.
The time for selling silver was in May/September when it was above $40 and Gold when it was at $1900.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:45 | 1887917 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

don’t fucking sell your physical

all the rest is opinion

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:58 | 1888005 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

Fair enough

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:07 | 1888053 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I still like your opinion - just reacted to the word "fair", that's all

"fair" just denotes a consensual, free transaction, "fair price" is just "unrigged market price" for me

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:26 | 1888167 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Dude, WTF?  I mean SERIOUSLY, WTF?

Why are you being so AGREEABLE, asshole?  lol

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:05 | 1888468 akak
akak's picture

Why are you being so AGREEABLE, asshole?

Regrettably, we are never in danger of the former from you --- but all too aware of the latter characterizing your behaviour in this forum.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:12 | 1889022 trav7777
trav7777's picture

flew right over your pinhead, didn't it?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:15 | 1889044 akak
akak's picture

No, I'm just finally sick and tired of your gratuitous bullshit.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 21:51 | 1889945 Nobody special
Nobody special's picture

Trav,

You have a lot to say for someone that's all opinion and no added value.  Why don't you find something productive to do?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:59 | 1888013 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Except for that last line of impressive 20/20 hindsight.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:13 | 1888529 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

Check my old posts and you'll see that I warned about golds run to $1900 several times. I even said it would go back to $1600 !

And that was easy to see from the MAs.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:46 | 1887923 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

This is not a correction.  It's a crisis of liquidity.  Way different.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:58 | 1888004 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Are we reliving first week of June, 2008?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:46 | 1887925 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

and your credentials for such an opinion to be taken seriously are what now?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:49 | 1887945 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

He's the guy who told the Man with No Name that "a man with a rifle always beats a man with a pistol." Then Clint put on some body armor and shot him down.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:57 | 1887995 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

Actually, you're wrong dude.

That was Ramon, I'm Indio, the guy who robbed la bank d’El Paso.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:08 | 1888042 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Yeah, I know. I was just looking at your avatar and didn't check your handle. It is the same guy who played Ramon in Fistful. Whatever became of El Indio? And what was the film, For a Few Dollars More?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:54 | 1887978 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

You don't need my credentials, I always give a reason for what I say. So you just need to use your brain and judge yourself.

For example I'm saying the moving averages are a simple and effective way to time purchases.

Gold MAs can be checked here: http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_gold.html

Silver MAs can be checked here: http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html

A good strategy is to buy when PMs are between the blue and green lines. The 30 MA for the blue line is fine, the 60 is better.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:04 | 1888035 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

can you really trust the MA in such a manipulated item? one day technicals won't matter. 40 year suppression is due to boil over.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:28 | 1888172 trav7777
trav7777's picture

keep fighting the current, then...fuckin pumpmonkeys

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:17 | 1888562 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

For the time being MAs still work but who knows.

I'm not selling anything but I won't buy when the conditions aren't right. Would you ?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:34 | 1889159 trav7777
trav7777's picture

they ran out and bought with both fists at 49.99

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:09 | 1888061 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

So the Chinese have 2 trillion dollars in FX in a vault.

When exactly should they time the market and move into gold?

And if they did move into physical what would be the price for all of us?

So considering that Sovereigns are "probably" moving toward (or are already in) the physical of last resort,

what do you say to those folks who are without or needing more?

Wait for a bargain?

 

Cue Hugh Hendry.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:09 | 1888496 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

Well yes. They buy small quantities regularly so that prices don't go up too much but when there is a selloff they buy a lot. That's their market timing. the Chineese don't chase prices higher and it's not me who says this.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:29 | 1888187 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

El Indio called a chop last week (earlier this week? can't remember).  Not to mention a lot of Big Gold heavies have been using $1500-$1600 as the base camp for the next leg of the ascent for quite a few months. 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 18:57 | 1889468 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Funniest thing is that it could just as easily explode to the upside and then everyone would still have previous posts/knew it was going to happen because of X or Y reason...

I've probably said it 100x by now: Dollar cost average your acquisitions of silver/gold. Want leverage? Then for every $1 you put into Gold put $2 into silver, or vice versa depending on your risk appetite and what you like more. Save your dry powder for dips and for fucks sake buy them (read: BTFD). If the chart of silver/gold looks like a unicorn boner on the 1-3 month (look at April-May 2011 for a boner example) then don't fucking buy yet. Wait until it comes back down to the moving averages/mean like it usually does and never forget the game you're playing at. I'll admit I bought at $35 on the last dip but I also bought at $30... I've also bought at $28... $22... etc.

Your timeline shouldn't be day trading this stuff and if it is, you're braver than I am and I don't really agree with that style Sometimes you'll get better value out of your fiat during the exchange, sometimes you won't at that particular time. The point is that you're accumulating purchasing power, not paper and over time real assets will outperform the massively overprinted arena that is fiat currencies right now.

To quote an old german farmer: "Money is money and paper is paper." Yes right now fiat still buys you goods and services. Of course it does and it might for some time to come. Hell, it might never go away, it might just get re-valued. You never know... but there will come a day when you don't want to be caught with your pants down pushing around paper assets losing every dime you thought you had in a flash.

But don't listen to me... I'm just a "bagholder"

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:46 | 1887929 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

  I've advised to break that brake.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:13 | 1888082 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Very good advice here...

However, I do love me some silver, so Im having a few little nibbles

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:42 | 1887906 fourchan
fourchan's picture

my bullion cares not.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:50 | 1887954 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

So it's not chicken bullion.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:42 | 1887907 Bumblebee Tuna
Bumblebee Tuna's picture

What does this mean for the EUR/USD?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:46 | 1887924 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

hahaha, the EUR/USD? a plaything of the MegaBanks

my two cents: see you at 1.30 in December and 1.5 in April

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:44 | 1887908 kito
kito's picture

so why are the markets not realllly plunging? if its worse than 2008, why arent we seeing panic right now? markets are way under 2 pct in the red...why did BAC just turn green!!!!!?!?!??! if this is really so bad, what gives???......

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:45 | 1887918 lapedochild
lapedochild's picture

Agree Kito, was going to post exactly the same... sure, a bit of a sell of on the S&P but why is there still a bid.? Then again, I've been 100% wrong since S&P left the launchpad on Oct 4th on mr Olli Rehn rumor on something called EFSF (remember?) and how it was going to be 'Leveraged'.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:49 | 1887948 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

three words: Options Expiration Friday.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:52 | 1887973 justanothernerd
justanothernerd's picture

Can you elaborate for the unknowledgeable? 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:29 | 1888060 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar

Closing of the options or options expiration causes price volatility.

It's like the 20 seconds before they close betting at the craps table, bets are made quickly, and people change bets based on bets other people make or who is holding the dice and if they changed dice or not.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20677.html

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:01 | 1888423 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

don't forget the massive failed options that will happen at MF Global. Those margin calls are fucked.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:54 | 1887984 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture

I was thinking the same thing.  It always does seem to go a little more volatile right before expiry.  Everyone running around getting money to cover their bad bets. 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:46 | 1887930 redpill
redpill's picture

Think of them as zombies when there are no fresh brains to eat.  All they want is to eat brains, but if no brains are available, they just kind of mill about, as if they were looking for something to do but don't know what it is or why they should do it.  

On the financial news shows now you have people changing their tune every 10 minutes trying to fit their broken ponzi understanding of the financial world to current circumstances, as a witch doctor insists his rain dance prompted a hurricane.  

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:15 | 1888092 knukles
knukles's picture

Talking about zombies, where is MDB when we so desparately need him to talk the market back up?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:49 | 1887943 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Breaking: Iceland is going to bail out the EU. Everything better.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:52 | 1887967 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Europe on the rocks?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:59 | 1888012 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

It's the new drink.  Everyone's swallowing it.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:09 | 1888064 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

it's strong. it's sexy. it's fun. it's popular

and mixable

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:20 | 1888112 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

I didn't know they rebranded Kool-Aid!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:51 | 1887960 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Because the Fed is buying futures to give the illusion things are OK?  I mean, why not right?  They buy MBS, Treasurys, Agencies, FX currencies, etc.  Why not buy stocks?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:59 | 1888011 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The Fed and the ECB are about to rev up their printing presses which will cause massive inflation and silver to explode. However, it is possible a 2008-like drop will occur in silver. If it does occur, it would be a much smaller and more brief dip. There are many differences between now and 2008: 
1) In 2008, nobody knew if the Fed would save the banks, now everyone expects the banks to be saved. 
2) Rates were able to be lowered to 0%. Now, they have been at 0% for nearly 3 years and cannot be lowered further. 
3) The Fed's balance sheet has been expanded to nearly $3T. I wouldn't be surprised to see that number double in the next year in order to stop the banks from imploding, which will cause a surge in inflation. 
4) In 2008, it was a banking crisis and the risks from the banks were transferred to the sovereigns. Now, it's a sovereign crisis with nowhere to transfer the risks to accept paper them over with printing. 
5) If Europe goes down, the entire Western banking system collapses..so they will print.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:16 | 1888098 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

agree

I think we`ve probably seen the bottom in silver, however in a 2008 style sell off you might see silver touch something like say 23.50 breifly

get some money ready for some paper silver if that happens, then convert to physical once the price is back above 30

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:39 | 1888265 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

The Fed shot their wad. It didn't work. Deflationary collapse dead ahead.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:44 | 1888311 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

There are absolutely no signs that the Fed is shrinking the money supply. Think about what you're saying and what it would take for the fed to shrink the money supply. The Fed would have to raise interest rates to get ahead of inflation. The Fed would have to stop bailing out the banks and allow depositors to lose their money. The federal government would have to stop going deeper into debt, which means that at least 40% all federal spending would need to be cut. The Fed would have to stop backing mortgages. Fannie / Freddie / FHA programs would have to end. Housing would collapse. None of this is happening and there are no signs that any of it will happen. All signs point to socialism / crony capitalism / bailouts / money printing.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:12 | 1888511 akak
akak's picture

Thank you!

These clueless and/or dishonest, disingenuous deflation callers are nothing but a screaming autistic child in the serious financial and monetary conversation.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:37 | 1888727 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

My pleasure. I love talking about this stuff because the more I do, the better I get at communicating it and this is my place to do so. I'm currently putting together a website with Q & A about money so hopefully soon I can just copy and paste responses to these misguided statements.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:07 | 1888051 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I'm actually pretty sure we close the week above 1270.  

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:43 | 1887911 fuu
fuu's picture

I just love pre-black friday sales.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:45 | 1887919 blu
blu's picture

I sort of assumed that a big part of the gold run up was hot money.

Let's see if those guys have the guts to pull out. If gold is the only future, then liquidating Au just to play for another week in other parts of the market (which have no future at all) is going to be a tough decision.

You'll have to work for your bonuses now, frat boys.

Here let me open a window for you. Have a nice flight.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:57 | 1887996 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Something tells me that this painter is going to have a very busy 2012...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/corzine-your-chance-either-own-piece-faste...

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:45 | 1887920 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Fed has been telegraphing for days that they would open liquidity operations in case of a Europe-induced liquidity freeze.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:28 | 1888177 knukles
knukles's picture

And that if stocks tank...
And that if confidence turns sour (to wit: CNBS European on well past the cut off time to go to US on alt channel, and they Only Fucking Do That When The World Is Coming To an End as was Not Predicted By Them)...
And that the Liquidity Squeeze that Was Never Gonna Happen, Surprise, Surprise..
And the Decoupling of the US from Europe just Undecoupled..
And a Growing Fuckstick (h/t Hansel) of a Scandal With MF Global morphs into Lehman 2.0...
And Occoupy turns National, on the MSM Radio and Telly No Less
...
And that it just about time for Another Stuff Up the Olde Bung, in Any Case.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:46 | 1887926 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Ben backed into a corner, firehoses blasting him......................How is that Princeton gig working for you?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:13 | 1888084 Fukushima Sam
Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:29 | 1888188 knukles
knukles's picture

"Why's everyone looking at me?  I specialized in fiscal policy."

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:46 | 1887927 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbI0cMyyw_M

 

Better run through the jungle...

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:46 | 1887931 LynRobison
LynRobison's picture

The Plunge Protection Team is on the job to levitate the market. Nothing to see here. Move along. Of course, as soon as elites have their new world currency ready for release, things will change rapidly. They will let the markets collapse, and then destroy the dollar, the euro, the yen, and the pound, thereby destroying all paper wealth so that the sheeple will beg for the elites' new currency. Then the elites will ultimately seize all physical assets that have any debt tied to them.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:47 | 1887935 Nate Taggart
Nate Taggart's picture

Clink, Clink, Clink... Yep it's all still there.  

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:51 | 1887958 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Its funny what happens as time goes on and you get less fiat for every oz of gold, meanwhile the price of food,fuel,energy and water keeps rising and the price of housing keeps falling.  

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:49 | 1887942 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

looks like IBM about to pinch off another turd in uncle Warren's tub in a minute.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:50 | 1887950 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

yes but will the /ES break below 1200 before the Bernankster saddles up the fourth horse of the financial apocalypse to ride in for the save?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:51 | 1887951 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Flight to safety -

Lean Hogs, Nat Gas, Lumber, Orange Juice, and Cocoa

Gold is not a safe haven today unless you're trying to hide under the big red bulls eye that the financial Fat Boy is landing on

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:04 | 1888036 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

The real flight to safety is removing one's assets from their commodity accounts.  Apparently "fiduciary" means "belongs to JPM and BAC whenever they decide to take them".

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:18 | 1889059 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Flight to bankrupcty--anyone with money or positions in paper accounts.

Flight to the future, physical gold and silver.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:50 | 1887952 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

FSLR up 6%

That POS has been trading tick for tick with Europe's problems

Somebody front-running a turn?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:22 | 1888127 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So youre saying you own FSLR? From where, $100 higher a few months ago? 'Somebody front-running a turn' yea sure 'bottom fisher' Robo.

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