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Global Systemic Risk At 3 Month Highs

Tyler Durden's picture


In a little over a month, the risk of the 30 most systemically important global banks has jumped an impressive 45%. At 235bps, the FSB30 stands just shy of the peak levels that were seen in the initial March 2009 crisis moment - though remains below Q4 2011 peak crisis levels. Perhaps, despite all the protestations of 'zee stabilitee', self-sustaining record-profit-margin-driven recovery, and Chinese soft-landing, the vicious circles of austerity in Europe (and perhaps the US) and financials squandering their newly-found liquidity (and certainly not capital) is becoming too large to ignore?

What is intriguing is how absolutely end-of-the-world the situation felt heading into Q1 2009 and yet - with banks' risk considerably higher now, we have become so much more 'used' to this state of chaos that our anchoring bias says - all is well?

Chart: Capital Context


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Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Ahhh...sweet little innocent Maria Bartiromo is purring on my TV saying, "Stocks are well off there lows of the day, and poised to go higher as earnings beat expectations"

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture


Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

and Botox

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

I'll make her full of white "lipstick" all over...dumb broad!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Nagelstudio
Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

she is not that innocent or naive for that matter.  CNBC is part of the system/problem that will have to be fixed.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

aw, come on!  nbc is owned by GE.  remember their commercials?  

Gee-Eee, We Bring Good Things to Life~!

it's gotta be true because they said so.  on TV!  

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

"Gee-Eee, We Bring Good Things to Life"

..that was just a play on Lucky Goldstar, or the other way round , LG made them look and act corny..

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture



She is a virus...or is it full of viruses?

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:42 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Don't fight the PPT, they got an infinite toner supply.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Maria....dear....earnings ALWAYS beat expectations. Haven't you heard??

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 16:15 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

Absolutely right...all corporations make their Better Than Reduced Expectations (BTRE) earnings nowadays.

Excellent! Party on dudes!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

In similar news, today I just beat my all time high jump record (by burying the bar one mile underground)...

I'll be in London for the Olympics this summer if you want to see me in action...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:41 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Business intelligence like no other. At least that's what they tell me in their commercial breaks.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Not possible for systemic problems because big banks never take a loss.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

how is this chart calculated? seriously-how is it calculated? anyone?

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

I believe it is an index of credit default swap spreads of certain banks. So it means that the spread above risk-free is some number of basis points. A basis point is 1/100th of a percent. For example if there is a spread of 173bp it means 1.74% above risk free.


Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

makes sense

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:30 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The difference is that before 2008, the world wasn't sure that trillions upon trillions would be thrown into the banking system to keep it from imploding. Now, everyone expects that the system will be maintained no matter the cost.

Do you here that? smells like hyperinflation.


Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Water seems fine to me.

                              - frog

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

amazing chart - well done.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:33 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Because Bernanke promised to print another infinit amount of paper money.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture



Egypt to stop gas export to Israel


Punk Economics: Lesson 1


Dutch PM resigns after failed austerity talks


Mon, 04/23/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture



                                                              Joke of the DAY!!

                                           China's Slowdown Was Intentional, Spencer Says     




Owned and Operated!

My Life and Your Life on FILM!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Global Systemic Crisis  ?!!!

This is a job for Suber Nanke.

Paging the Bearded Crusader!


ps:  bring lotsa toner.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture



MF Global Customers Press J.P. Morgan for Funds

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

France may have a new Joan D'arc in the battle against Anglo/Israeli/American financial domnation...

France, ya want any kind of a future? I mean aside from the soon-to-be King Of The PFIGS under monsieur Hollande??? 

Then here's your only choice mon amis: Marine Le Pen. Cut loose the banksters AND the socialists and Vive La France!

Le Pen shocks France as far right hits historic heights Far-right National Front candidate Marine Le Pen obtained a surprising 18% of the vote in the first-round of France’s presidential election Sunday night.
Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Have no fear the PPT is here!!!!!

Somebody stepped in today to plug the hole in the dam. Oil made a dramatic comeback and the market is down less than 1%.

Once again you can't fight the Fed. When there isn't a buyer left Bernanke steps in with his banker buddies and they prop up the market with more cash borrowed from future generations.

Every baby born is going to be handed a bill along with their birth certificate. On the day of your birth you owe the USA $1 billion. Wages will be garnished forever, actually you just belong to us.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

the S&P was quite a bit higher on 11/25 than 10/04. both were short term buy points

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

You know what else is up 45%, Facebook's revenue. Bullish...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

What is intriguing is how absolutely end-of-the-world the situation felt heading into Q1 2009 and yet - with banks' risk considerably higher now, we have become so much more 'used' to this state of chaos that our anchoring bias says - all is well?

El-Erian's famed "new normal."

A.k.a. "you'll get over it."

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

The western world is run by bozos.  At one time, they were smart, clever and resourceful; however, things are getting out of hand - intelligence and resourcefulness are kinda powerless.  A smart man and an imbecile jumping out of a burning high-rise will turn out the same way - dead!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 00:34 | Link to Comment hangman
hangman's picture

Although everyone is entitled to their opinions (greatness of our country-our rights bestowed upon by our forefathers), others and our own, times after time, underestimating our ability to overcome obstcles and challenges, man-made or not, is misplaced.

However, while we are distracted, Chinese-Russian War Games goes on under the radar in the Pacific theater-while our media is preoccupied with some soccer ball a washed up in Alaskan shores from Japan.  If we don't pay attention, it will be more than a soccer ball that will be washing up on our shores from Korea-Japan Pacific theater.

But then, as I observed before, a large war is one sure way to get our umemployment rate down quickly, move jobs from China to our shores and turn IOU to UOM (you owe me).


Mon, 04/23/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

he always brings up this FSB systemic crap when his shorts are not performing.

Today market nearly :"crashed",merely less than 1% correction.half than in EURUSD with all the negativity

hitting Europe.Yes,edge of the cliff LOL!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

We are just whistling past the grave yard. But not for much longer. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 00:44 | Link to Comment Ayr Rand
Ayr Rand's picture

Wait... if risk is at all time highs, why is VIX near all-time lows? 

Simple, it's my friend Manny. Manny P Elation. 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 06:44 | Link to Comment cannotbearit
cannotbearit's picture

Is this index published anywhere online on a regular basis?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!