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Global Systemic Risk Soars To 5 Month Highs
Only two weeks ago, we noted that the 30 most systemically important financial institutions in the world were seeing risk surging to 3-month highs. Today has seen that eclipsed dramatically as the credit risk of these entities soars to the year's worst levels jumping 22% in the last two weeks alone. At 264bps, we are now close to the 3/9/09 peak crisis levels (of 274bps) and pushing up to the Q4 2011 peaks over 300bps as every region is deteriorating systemically - with the US and Europe worst (US below previous peak levels but Europe at record wides), Asia accelerating wider, and even the Aussie banks now losing it. While markets are staging a mini-recovery this morning, financials are not really participating as this index of global systemic risk has now retraced all of the LTRO benefits.
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What time is the QE3 rumor due out today?
As soon as the futures gap open gets sold off.
I don't know... I'm all into silver calls that end in jan. 2013 so it will probably take until february before they announce it...
it would make sense....
Have a look at Bank CDS and the ECB Fear Indicator:
banks deposited
788B overnight
CDS exploding
everything red like blood
http://www.cds-info.com
Blood.....BUY BITCHEZ!
Bitchez are too expensive to buy, much less maintain............better off renting.
For sure. Spare parts cost a fortune.
Marty Feldstein: “More Air Is Going to Come Out of the Stock Market”
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/marty-feldstein-more-air-goi...
excerpt:
While two rounds of QE and Operation Twist have had the desired result -- lower bond yields and a revival of equity prices -- the Fed's actions are "not really moving actual economic activity," Feldstein notes. "Having tried it twice and not succeeded, it's not clear there's any reason for them to do it again."
lower bond yields and a revival of equity prices is the only thing the bernank cares about, that and bank bonuses. QE is working as designed and we will have more of it over the coming years imo.
People are scared and no longer trust
Discretionary spending and credit cannot expand under these circumstances
Its just the banks......so how are the Caymen islands doing.....are housing prices going up there....
Would luv to see VIXY overlayed on this chart and wonder which one is mispriced.
What's that flashing?
Where losing the LTRO deflector shield. Go strap yourself in. I'm going to make the jump to hyper-print.
(Ben Solo in the Millenium Fiat-Falcon)
TIME CYCLE ANALYSIS
http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/
The hypoglycemic kid is being denied his corn syrup.
Systemic, oh no! The system sucks orifice. Let them die.
JPMChase is still getting focked
They could not have sold all those positions that took months to accumulate
Please god I promise to go to church and quit noodling that married lady if you will grace us with wider spreads
I'm curious about thoughts around a Greek Bank Holiday and an expected forced conversion of Greek Euros to New Drachmas.
How would this be done? If Greece wants to stay in the EU, it would need to trade in the Euro. I suspect it's businesses would continue to conduct business in the euro. Tourists would likely continue to use the euro.
How would it steal euros from it's citizens and yet allow euros to be used in it's economy?
relax, CNBClowns will get Zandi on to wave some pom poms and let everyone know that all is well.
The heavy hand of the FED is all over the ES this morning.
This should be an epic and blatant up-your-rump day for the shorts.
Data coming out too positive for a QE rumor today. Oil needs to be ten bucks lower. Gold getting knocked down another $100 is just an ancillary benefit.
I noticed you used the word data. Please maintain some intellectual honesty and integrity and mockingly write 'data'.
I've actually never seen the 'data' but rather only the 'report'. Wierd, ain't it?
I will amend all comments going forward to heed to your advice.
Well this seems like the signal that it's time to dispose of all tangible assets and get heavily into paper of all kinds - USD, EUR, USTs, - if it can be printed or digitally conjured, now's the time to be loading up.
Global Systemic Risk Soars To 5 Month Highs
Expect massive downside in gold and sivler on this news!!
Sarc off /
My point exactly - everybody out of tangible stuff and into those secure paper stores of wealth and value.
they're not going to "print." now that there is a fully militarized police force and surveilance system throughout the "West" - they're better off letting the (hopeless, untenable) system collapse.
20 or 30 years from now, the deflationary apocalypse will be over, and civilation can rebuild on more solid footing.
Yeah, that is why billionaires are buying up old paintings for a hundred million a pop.
I know this shit is all rigged, but Benny has to realize that if he QEsneezes prior to November even the people with an IQ below 80 will realize the game is rigged. Will he throw away the last piss ant ounce of credibility left in the FOMC?
The question is how does he not do QE before November and somehow prop the markets up so Dave Sheeple continues to hold his correct age based asset allocation in his 401k?
Good point.
Actually the bigger question is what happens when he injects all those needles full of heroin into the junkie and the junkie gets high as a kite for a few days then sees his cardiovascular system call Benny's bluff and colapses anyways even with the free heroin. Yikes, when we get there the Spider goes below 600.
you are thinking waaay too far down the road. Thats months away.
My feeling is that Shalom knows the element of surprise is gone since every swinging dick and set of wet panties on CNBClowns calls for QE with every dip. Oil, gold, silver, and USD are telling us no QE in the short run. So at what point does Shalom think he has the element of surprise where he could possibly get something positive from QE even if that "positive" thing is bullshit as he knows and you and I know?
Oil at $80? EURUSD at 1.20? Gold at $1200?
Benny has to be under lots of pressure to print. Barry is now trailing Zombie in every major poll.
Staggering Debt Deflation with Depression is usually not helpful for the incumbent in an election year.
Combine this with collapsng Housing Bubbles in China, Australia and Europe and it will be "interesting" to see what happens.
1929 In Slow Motion ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Slow Jam
Burn the baseball cards......save the bubble gum ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Get Physical Bitches
how is everything systemically riskier now than it was 5 months ago? oh i forgot, people are waking up to what austerity means
From http://theautomaticearth.org/Earth/planet-earth-fubar.html
Ashvin Pandurangi
Warning: This commentary is not for the faint of heart.
I thought I'd start this particular Monday morning, May the 14th, with a little rant. Sometimes it helps to ditch the uber-rational, cool-headed analysis and remind people just how screwed up things are on this third toxic landfill from the Sun.
F.U.B.A.R. is a military acronym from WWII - it stands for, "FUCKED UP BEYOND ALL RECOGNITION/ANY REPAIR/ALL REASON".
I can already hear the critics and naysayers chirping - "But, but, we've heard all of this before. You all have been talking about financial meltdown for years now, and it never happens. We just keep on chugging along like the little engine that could".
Bullshit! It has happened; it is happening. Every day for the past year has been one in which the Eurozone could erupt in flames, figuratively AND literally, and financial contagion could sweep through the global banking system. That is the definition of systemic meltdown - the critical point past which a system is constantly exposed to the risk of CRISIS.
We all know the story in Europe. The peripheral EZ economies are in freefall as private/public credit evaporates and unemployment soars, while the backlash against blatant wealth extraction, a.k.a. "austerity", has reached epic proportions. Greece is closer than ever to saying "SHOVE IT" and leaving the Union. So what happens after that??
Europe will be F.U.B.A.R., that's what. Capital exodus, financial contagion, hyperinflation, social unrest, civil war - you name it - it's all on the table. What if Greece manages to stay in and none of this happens? Does that mean everything is all better and the crisis point has been averted? Go ahead - sit back, relax and give it a few more weeks or months, but just remember that you will NEVER know when it will hit you like a MACK truck - only that it most certainly will.
And while you're waiting for Europe to implode, maybe you can do some research on China. Google the definition of "a rock and a hard place", and you will see a picture of China with billions of little dots flashing across your screen. Here is an export economy that is watching its biggest export markets collapse, and a financial economy that barely got a few years of illusory wealth out of its speculative mal-investment. An industrial economy that wrecked its environment in record time and left its population with toxic shit for water. Google India while you're at it.
Then there's that other country which boasts the third-largest economy in the world - Japan. Let's face it - if there is any one country for whom the bell tolls, then it is Japan. Between its zombie banking system, weakening export sectors, rapidly shifting demographics, lack of domestic energy resources and nuclear catastrophe that never ends, and can always get worse, the country has become a veritable disaster zone. Stick a fork in it.
Australia, Canada - the countries that miracously escaped the housing bubble and banking metldown. Or not. These comically complacent commodity countries can only muddle through by the skin of their knuckles for so long before the recent past catches up with them. WHEN the price of gas or gold or copper or... plummets with foreign demand, so do their financial sectors. Sorry guys, you almost made it, but not really.
Last and certainly least on my list of countries to rant against is the United States. This place is an amalgamation of the worst aspects of every other country. It's a financially-fragile, energy-dependent, consumerist-minded, generationally-entitled, politically-fractured, demographically-fucked imperial police state. We may make it to November elections in relative peace just because our crony political establishment and media spin machines will pull out every trick play in their playbooks to keep the mind-numbingly ignorant population with blinders on until then. After that, all bets are off.
but on the bright side... Oh dear! :(
R U Bone-ified?
At least US industrial product and cap utilization increaseed.
But HOW LONG CAN WE HAVE AN AUTO/TRUCK RALLY DRIVING THE ECONOMY?????????????????
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/industrial-production-and-capacity-utilization-increase-thanks-to-motor-vehicles/
2008 = the 1910 crash and 2012 will = 1929 crash.
Be ready!
Felix Salmon has a good piece as well.
Fleecebook will exose the whole market and shear them of their shares and leave them cold.
Sorry, wrong thread.
Question just to understand this better: The FSB named 29 institutions last November. I think the 30 number comes from a couple of years ago. Does some exchange publish the chart above, or is this a ZH invention/calculation? In either case, muchos gracias - very helpful.
Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute (CRI)
The Greek Dilemma
From the Wall Street Crash of 1929 to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007
It all started with the big crisis of 1929. The American economy reached a deadlock because of its social "pathogenesis"; a deadlock that led it to economic crisis in a different - faster- pace than the rest of the industrial forces of that time. Important decisions had to be made - mostly social - and the Whites didn't like that, especially the Whites' rulers, the Anglo-Saxons. The USA society had to either be homogenized and "forget" about racism against black people or find itself in a permanent deadlock that would threaten it with social uprising. If they didn't equate the black working people with their white colleagues so that there wouldn’t be an issue with the salaries that threatened the national currency, they couldn't avoid reactions and all that goes with it.
The problem which began as social but was turning into economic was simple. As long as the economy functioned adequately and the Blacks worked and asserted what they deserved for their work, the white employers had to "fund" the white working force with extra money because of their skin color. To avoid complaints from a white worker who received the same salary with his black colleague, the employers had no choice but to give them more money. The demands of the Blacks were used as an excuse by the Whites to demand more and everything ended up in the same pocket, since they were under the same employ. The problem that arose from this "strange" tactic was that the increased takings of the "superior" White employers were seeking outlet in investments and that threatened the capital. Having higher salaries, they bought more houses; they bought stocks and so on.
www.eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2010/02/ten-plagues-of-pharaoh.html
Authored by Panagiotis Traianou