GM Channel Stuffing Resumes, January Dealer Inventory Second Highest Ever

Tyler Durden's picture

Just as we thought GM's channel stuffing days may be coming to an end, and the company may finally be normalizing its inventory management, here come January numbers, where we learn that in addition to car sales declining by 6% compared to a year ago, at 167,962 vehicles sold (of note: "Retail deliveries declined 15 percent compared with the same month a year ago and accounted for 70 percent of GM sales"), it was the all critical month end dealer inventory that caught our attention. And unfortunately as the skeptics expected, GM is back to its old tricks, as dealer inventories rose once again, this time by over 36k units, or the second highest in its post-reorg history, to a near record 619,455 vehicles stored with dealers. This is just the second highest ever in fresh start GM history, second only to November's 623,666. The January-end number represents 89 days supply, but more importantly the recent spike in restocking, which was seen with all other major car dealers, explains the ongoing "expansion" in the US economy as measured by indices such as the ISM. Eventually, when the end demand for these dealer parked vehicles does not materialize, the New Orders so diligently tracked by economists everywhere will slip back under 50, but before that we are confident that the administration will come up with some new Cash for Clunkers plan to take demand from the future and to push it into the days leading into the election, probably funded once again by other taxpayers who don't quite see the fascination with owning a GM car.

And some other manufacturers:

  • Ford month-end inventory 86-day supply at end of Jan. (492k vehicles) vs 60-day supply (466k) as of Dec. 31
  • Chrysler had 83-day supply (349k units) end of Jan. vs 64-day (326k units) as of Dec. 31
  • GM month-end inventory 89-day supply (619k units) vs 67-day supply (583k) Dec. 31

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LawsofPhysics's picture

Sweet, if only the Fed would allow the deflationary forces to give us real GDP growth (and now apparently some more cheap cars).  Oh wait, that would reward savers, nevermind.

economics1996's picture

We need deflation but the government would never let that happen as long as they own the bank.

You must read outlawed authors like Rothbard and other radicals because you seem to understand economics very well.

Oh regional Indian's picture

What has really happened is that the banksters have created so many floating levers that they can inflate and deflate commodities/stocks/rates/fx in one giant, complex sphercle-jerk...

So we see crazy deflation in non-essentials and run-away inflation in essentials. One side propped by debt and the other desperately trying to re-flect reality.

Hexaflation baby.

Club Of Rome Simulation can handle quite a few variables, last I heard.

ori

/watershed-day-may-this-pour-through-a-million-pairs-of-eyes/

LawsofPhysics's picture

Perhaps, but capital mis-allocation can only continue for so long and ends either through the collapse of critical supply lines or by an honest restoration of the rule of law.

The problem with the former is that if the collapse comes via this mechanism, then there is no spare capital left to invest in real value-added technologies like those fusion reactors that will save us all.  Basically the world degenerates to places like Zimbabwe or Afghanistan were possession and access are 100% of the law.  Not very forward thinking you might say.

economics1996's picture

You are referring to inelastic items and elastic items.  When there is inflation some prices change more than others.  This is normal with fiat money.

Under a gold standard you have deflation over the long horizon because money cannot be counterfeited.

The counterfeiters make a living manipulating the marketplace, they are thief’s, nothing more.

B-rock's picture

They're getting ready for the good times -- just around the corner... LOL.

ffart's picture

Maybe the mythical "crack up boom" is finally around the corner due to all the money supply explosion. Here's your last chance to board the PM train and get out of the country before corn pone Hitler and his racial diversity bootstomping task force takes over and invades Canada.

zeek's picture

No... they are getting ready for the "protectionism play," coming soon to the Obama theater all around you...

Make no mistake... the government knows what cars you need to buy... theirs.

Freddie's picture

Hope & Change.  The Democrat's muslim runs GM/UAW/Allah Motors.

Buck Johnson's picture

They can't allow savers to be rewarded, no way.  They don't want a deflationary depression to start and then turn into hyperstagflation.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

There has never been
a better time
to buy or lease
a new GM!

Hurry down now
while inventories last!

Bring your wife
and title
and we'll dicker!

Don Birnam's picture

Confounding. Obviously, GM sales employees require a skill set upgrade ( employee re-training funds to be included in the next debt limit extension bill ). With such a youthful, fresh, dynamic design and engineering heritage the venerable which General Motors unquestionably represents, how could dealer inventory be so high ?

http://i.usatoday.net/communitymanager/_photos/drive-on/2010/08/04/aztek...

Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Make it an Aztek, bitchez. Loaded.

MachoMan's picture

Jokes just aren't as funny if you have to explain them...

i love cholas's picture

Gm's press release states 619,455 for Jan. 2011. Might be a typo on GM's part

Tyler Durden's picture

That's some serious Press Release Quality Control. Good thing the car QC is better...

i love cholas's picture

I wonder if that's the reason why GM is up 2%? Rubes think month-end inventory is decreasing YoY

tarsubil's picture

I know a guy who has a 2003 Chevy. The speedometer is broken. The speedometer. He literally does not know how fast he is driving.

JohnG's picture

He might be able to fix that.  Tell him to look take the tire off and look around the front wheels for an optical switch and if he can find one clean it out.  If it get's too much mud or grit in there it won't tell the computer that the car is actually moving.

I had the same problem on a Honda....hell to find it, but I eventually gound the sensor.

Any car guys around here??

 

(an no, I wouldn't buy a government motors car ever.)

pods's picture

Quick Google of 2003 shows many could be problems.  I was thinking cable.  

http://gm-speedometer-fix.com/

This place seems to think it is a faulty stepper motor.

I would see if there are some TSBs on this.  Certainly should be if there are websites devoted to this exact problem.

pods

tarsubil's picture

You are very thoughtful. I told him to drive the piece of junk off a cliff.

prains's picture

found some more channel stuffing

 

http://imgur.com/KJ78R

LouisDega's picture

 Ahh shit!!! All over my Ivy league suit

prains's picture

as long as it's not on the pleather you're all good

 

 

 

*edit* and hey don't junk the pic above, those triple entendre's are hard to come by

Taint Boil's picture

Good thing the IT guy here is a bigger perv than me LOL.

prains's picture

the location of your boil might need attention

Cdad's picture

This company is beyond contempt, and it stands as a shrine to central planning.

Never again...never will I buy a GM vehicle, and apparently I am in the majority on something...for once.

economics1996's picture

I had a 98 Intrique that was nice.

WonderDawg's picture

I have a 2000 Corvette that I absolutely love, and I'd love to get a C6 on the cheap, but that's just the sports car fanatic in me.

WonderDawg's picture

And whoever junked me can kiss my ass. Corvettes, especially the C5, are the best horsepower bang for the buck.

adr's picture

About all you get is horsepower to brag about and an interior that would make a 1990 Kia look like a Bentley.

WonderDawg's picture

Not that bad, actually, it's pretty comfortable. And the handling is tight and smooth. It's a great car, regardless of what has happened since.

graymnzrc's picture

A 'vette would be the only GM product I would buy. Maybe the Caddy CTS series. I know a guy that traded his CTS for a new Audi (he trades cars every 2 years [no wife or kids]) and he misses the Caddy.

pods's picture

The new Camaro ZL1 (old one even better) would be something nice.  New ZR1 vette seems to be stellar.

pods

WonderDawg's picture

I have a friend with a 2009 ZR1, and it is an absolute rocket. Way out of my price range, but one of these days...

cbxer55's picture

I've got 1 really clean white 2004 Ford Lightning. Supercharged hotrod pickemup truck. It is not stock by any means.

There is not a cheby made that would get me to trade in the Lightning.

Not even a vette.

Freddie's picture

2000?   That was Pre-Islamic GM not the current Hope & Change/UAW/GM "motors."

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Cadillacs all up in this hood, bitchez!

pods's picture

Well it is not their fault, if they cannot stuff them onto car lots they cannot call them "sold".

Not like anyone is running out to actually BUY the overpriced lithium firebomb Chevy Volt when the BEST you can hope for is 40 miles before it dies.

pods

espirit's picture

Yeah, with one of those you can run, but you can't run far - lol.

DCFusor's picture

I bought one, I regularly get well over 45 miles on pure battery before the IC engine cuts in for unlimited range -same as any other car,  at around 38 mpg in that mode.  I'm averaging about 90 mpg on combined electric/gasoline driving since I make some longer drives than I can do battery-only.  If you have to buy the electricity, it costs around $1 for the 10kw to go that 45 miles - work it out, pods.  I don't have to buy the electricity, as I use the car as a diversion load for my solar system once my house batteries are full.

I love the car - it's very sporty on the really nifty mountain roads I live around.  Quiet, fit and finish perfect, handles like the beemer they use the same front suspension as (all Bosch).  Pulls the Gees, stops hard - even the stereo kicks ass.  What more do you want?  Unlike my SS Camaro, which attracts girls in parking lots to talk about it, they want to get into the Volt and go for a ride...it wins that one hands-down.  Heh.

You can hate on GM and the bailouts all you want - no car company didn't get alt energy subsidies, and Ford's product is a joke by comparison to the Volt.  Chrysler took the money and produced nothing at all.  Ford got loan guarantees instead of a loan - but still a subsidy.

Frankly, it's stupid to NOT be getting your tax dollars back, even by a circuitous route as provided here.  If you do, and few others do - you're the winner, they are not.

And we can afford to remember that the Volt and these other part-electric cars weren't done by Obummer, or even Bush - it was CAFE that drove it, along with Bob Lutz over at GM (and you should look him up, he's fairly far-right, AGW denier and all that - but this made sense to him anyway).

I'd guess all the car companies who can are now channel stuffing, but when I was last at my dealer, it didn't look like that a couple weeks ago.  They have the usual Jan inventory they need since all the companies have reduced production capacity - they need to be ready for spring when most of the sales happen.  Somehow, GM took the lead back from Toyota again...

 

Dr. Engali's picture

If the Volt ( piece of crap) is so good why are dealerships refusing them?  You sound like a used car salesman. How many are you stuck holding the bag with at your dealership?

xela2200's picture

Not only dealerships are turning them down, but the people who still remember the EV1. Those people are the hard core early adapters. They will buy a Nissan leaf before the volt.

Rentenmark's picture

FYI, Toyota may have been impacted by that little earthquake, tsunami thingy from last year.  Just sayin'.

Rentenmark's picture

FYI, Toyota may have been impacted by that little earthquake, tsunami thingy from last year.  Just sayin'.

adr's picture

You might want to check your electric bill there man. It might say $.10 per kilowatt hour as a base charge but that isn't what you pay. Add taxes, fees, transition charges, line charges, etc and you are looking at $.25 per kWh minimum. Also no charger is 100% efficient. Quick chargers being the worst of all losing around 1 kilowatt during the charging process to heat and conductivity issues.

I did the full math a long time ago and charging the Volt to go 35-40 miles costs around $2.75 for most people, and up to $5.50 for people in high rate areas like NYC and NJ. Considering the $30k premium over a 40mpg car like the Hyundai Accent, which kicks the Volt's ass in features and drivability, you'll never make back your initial investment even if you keep the Volt for 100 years.

Dr. Engali's picture

Screw all that math. I used to drive domestic crap . Now I drive a BMW with lots of horse power and a sweet ride. I'll never go back to the home made garbage again. Not that it's really still home made anyway.

pods's picture

Guess I stand corrected?

:)

Why not look at the Leaf?  Simply the limit of elec only?

I watched some vids of a couple of guys who were using compressed air in an almost standard ICE motor with great results. I think that will be the future, along with modified LPG ICE motors.

Hope the batteries last on the Volt.

pods