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GM Channel Stuffing Resumes, January Dealer Inventory Second Highest Ever
Just as we thought GM's channel stuffing days may be coming to an end, and the company may finally be normalizing its inventory management, here come January numbers, where we learn that in addition to car sales declining by 6% compared to a year ago, at 167,962 vehicles sold (of note: "Retail deliveries declined 15 percent compared with the same month a year ago and accounted for 70 percent of GM sales"), it was the all critical month end dealer inventory that caught our attention. And unfortunately as the skeptics expected, GM is back to its old tricks, as dealer inventories rose once again, this time by over 36k units, or the second highest in its post-reorg history, to a near record 619,455 vehicles stored with dealers. This is just the second highest ever in fresh start GM history, second only to November's 623,666. The January-end number represents 89 days supply, but more importantly the recent spike in restocking, which was seen with all other major car dealers, explains the ongoing "expansion" in the US economy as measured by indices such as the ISM. Eventually, when the end demand for these dealer parked vehicles does not materialize, the New Orders so diligently tracked by economists everywhere will slip back under 50, but before that we are confident that the administration will come up with some new Cash for Clunkers plan to take demand from the future and to push it into the days leading into the election, probably funded once again by other taxpayers who don't quite see the fascination with owning a GM car.
And some other manufacturers:
- Ford month-end inventory 86-day supply at end of Jan. (492k vehicles) vs 60-day supply (466k) as of Dec. 31
- Chrysler had 83-day supply (349k units) end of Jan. vs 64-day (326k units) as of Dec. 31
- GM month-end inventory 89-day supply (619k units) vs 67-day supply (583k) Dec. 31
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Sweet, if only the Fed would allow the deflationary forces to give us real GDP growth (and now apparently some more cheap cars). Oh wait, that would reward savers, nevermind.
We need deflation but the government would never let that happen as long as they own the bank.
You must read outlawed authors like Rothbard and other radicals because you seem to understand economics very well.
What has really happened is that the banksters have created so many floating levers that they can inflate and deflate commodities/stocks/rates/fx in one giant, complex sphercle-jerk...
So we see crazy deflation in non-essentials and run-away inflation in essentials. One side propped by debt and the other desperately trying to re-flect reality.
Hexaflation baby.
Club Of Rome Simulation can handle quite a few variables, last I heard.
ori
/watershed-day-may-this-pour-through-a-million-pairs-of-eyes/
Perhaps, but capital mis-allocation can only continue for so long and ends either through the collapse of critical supply lines or by an honest restoration of the rule of law.
The problem with the former is that if the collapse comes via this mechanism, then there is no spare capital left to invest in real value-added technologies like those fusion reactors that will save us all. Basically the world degenerates to places like Zimbabwe or Afghanistan were possession and access are 100% of the law. Not very forward thinking you might say.
You are referring to inelastic items and elastic items. When there is inflation some prices change more than others. This is normal with fiat money.
Under a gold standard you have deflation over the long horizon because money cannot be counterfeited.
The counterfeiters make a living manipulating the marketplace, they are thief’s, nothing more.
They're getting ready for the good times -- just around the corner... LOL.
Maybe the mythical "crack up boom" is finally around the corner due to all the money supply explosion. Here's your last chance to board the PM train and get out of the country before corn pone Hitler and his racial diversity bootstomping task force takes over and invades Canada.
No... they are getting ready for the "protectionism play," coming soon to the Obama theater all around you...
Make no mistake... the government knows what cars you need to buy... theirs.
Hope & Change. The Democrat's muslim runs GM/UAW/Allah Motors.
They can't allow savers to be rewarded, no way. They don't want a deflationary depression to start and then turn into hyperstagflation.
There has never been
a better time
to buy or lease
a new GM!
Hurry down now
while inventories last!
Bring your wife
and title
and we'll dicker!
Confounding. Obviously, GM sales employees require a skill set upgrade ( employee re-training funds to be included in the next debt limit extension bill ). With such a youthful, fresh, dynamic design and engineering heritage the venerable which General Motors unquestionably represents, how could dealer inventory be so high ?
http://i.usatoday.net/communitymanager/_photos/drive-on/2010/08/04/aztek...
Make it an Aztek, bitchez. Loaded.
dicker wife or buyer?
Exactly.
Jokes just aren't as funny if you have to explain them...
Gm's press release states 619,455 for Jan. 2011. Might be a typo on GM's part
That's some serious Press Release Quality Control. Good thing the car QC is better...
I wonder if that's the reason why GM is up 2%? Rubes think month-end inventory is decreasing YoY
I know a guy who has a 2003 Chevy. The speedometer is broken. The speedometer. He literally does not know how fast he is driving.
He might be able to fix that. Tell him to look take the tire off and look around the front wheels for an optical switch and if he can find one clean it out. If it get's too much mud or grit in there it won't tell the computer that the car is actually moving.
I had the same problem on a Honda....hell to find it, but I eventually gound the sensor.
Any car guys around here??
(an no, I wouldn't buy a government motors car ever.)
Quick Google of 2003 shows many could be problems. I was thinking cable.
http://gm-speedometer-fix.com/
This place seems to think it is a faulty stepper motor.
I would see if there are some TSBs on this. Certainly should be if there are websites devoted to this exact problem.
pods
You are very thoughtful. I told him to drive the piece of junk off a cliff.
found some more channel stuffing
http://imgur.com/KJ78R
Ahh shit!!! All over my Ivy league suit
as long as it's not on the pleather you're all good
*edit* and hey don't junk the pic above, those triple entendre's are hard to come by
Good thing the IT guy here is a bigger perv than me LOL.
the location of your boil might need attention
This company is beyond contempt, and it stands as a shrine to central planning.
Never again...never will I buy a GM vehicle, and apparently I am in the majority on something...for once.
I had a 98 Intrique that was nice.
I have a 2000 Corvette that I absolutely love, and I'd love to get a C6 on the cheap, but that's just the sports car fanatic in me.
And whoever junked me can kiss my ass. Corvettes, especially the C5, are the best horsepower bang for the buck.
About all you get is horsepower to brag about and an interior that would make a 1990 Kia look like a Bentley.
Not that bad, actually, it's pretty comfortable. And the handling is tight and smooth. It's a great car, regardless of what has happened since.
A 'vette would be the only GM product I would buy. Maybe the Caddy CTS series. I know a guy that traded his CTS for a new Audi (he trades cars every 2 years [no wife or kids]) and he misses the Caddy.
The new Camaro ZL1 (old one even better) would be something nice. New ZR1 vette seems to be stellar.
pods
I have a friend with a 2009 ZR1, and it is an absolute rocket. Way out of my price range, but one of these days...
I've got 1 really clean white 2004 Ford Lightning. Supercharged hotrod pickemup truck. It is not stock by any means.
There is not a cheby made that would get me to trade in the Lightning.
Not even a vette.
2000? That was Pre-Islamic GM not the current Hope & Change/UAW/GM "motors."
Cadillacs all up in this hood, bitchez!
Well it is not their fault, if they cannot stuff them onto car lots they cannot call them "sold".
Not like anyone is running out to actually BUY the overpriced lithium firebomb Chevy Volt when the BEST you can hope for is 40 miles before it dies.
pods
Yeah, with one of those you can run, but you can't run far - lol.
I bought one, I regularly get well over 45 miles on pure battery before the IC engine cuts in for unlimited range -same as any other car, at around 38 mpg in that mode. I'm averaging about 90 mpg on combined electric/gasoline driving since I make some longer drives than I can do battery-only. If you have to buy the electricity, it costs around $1 for the 10kw to go that 45 miles - work it out, pods. I don't have to buy the electricity, as I use the car as a diversion load for my solar system once my house batteries are full.
I love the car - it's very sporty on the really nifty mountain roads I live around. Quiet, fit and finish perfect, handles like the beemer they use the same front suspension as (all Bosch). Pulls the Gees, stops hard - even the stereo kicks ass. What more do you want? Unlike my SS Camaro, which attracts girls in parking lots to talk about it, they want to get into the Volt and go for a ride...it wins that one hands-down. Heh.
You can hate on GM and the bailouts all you want - no car company didn't get alt energy subsidies, and Ford's product is a joke by comparison to the Volt. Chrysler took the money and produced nothing at all. Ford got loan guarantees instead of a loan - but still a subsidy.
Frankly, it's stupid to NOT be getting your tax dollars back, even by a circuitous route as provided here. If you do, and few others do - you're the winner, they are not.
And we can afford to remember that the Volt and these other part-electric cars weren't done by Obummer, or even Bush - it was CAFE that drove it, along with Bob Lutz over at GM (and you should look him up, he's fairly far-right, AGW denier and all that - but this made sense to him anyway).
I'd guess all the car companies who can are now channel stuffing, but when I was last at my dealer, it didn't look like that a couple weeks ago. They have the usual Jan inventory they need since all the companies have reduced production capacity - they need to be ready for spring when most of the sales happen. Somehow, GM took the lead back from Toyota again...
If the Volt ( piece of crap) is so good why are dealerships refusing them? You sound like a used car salesman. How many are you stuck holding the bag with at your dealership?
Not only dealerships are turning them down, but the people who still remember the EV1. Those people are the hard core early adapters. They will buy a Nissan leaf before the volt.
FYI, Toyota may have been impacted by that little earthquake, tsunami thingy from last year. Just sayin'.
FYI, Toyota may have been impacted by that little earthquake, tsunami thingy from last year. Just sayin'.
You might want to check your electric bill there man. It might say $.10 per kilowatt hour as a base charge but that isn't what you pay. Add taxes, fees, transition charges, line charges, etc and you are looking at $.25 per kWh minimum. Also no charger is 100% efficient. Quick chargers being the worst of all losing around 1 kilowatt during the charging process to heat and conductivity issues.
I did the full math a long time ago and charging the Volt to go 35-40 miles costs around $2.75 for most people, and up to $5.50 for people in high rate areas like NYC and NJ. Considering the $30k premium over a 40mpg car like the Hyundai Accent, which kicks the Volt's ass in features and drivability, you'll never make back your initial investment even if you keep the Volt for 100 years.
Screw all that math. I used to drive domestic crap . Now I drive a BMW with lots of horse power and a sweet ride. I'll never go back to the home made garbage again. Not that it's really still home made anyway.
Guess I stand corrected?
:)
Why not look at the Leaf? Simply the limit of elec only?
I watched some vids of a couple of guys who were using compressed air in an almost standard ICE motor with great results. I think that will be the future, along with modified LPG ICE motors.
Hope the batteries last on the Volt.
pods
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel-metal_hydride_battery
Patent encumbrance in electric vehicles
Main article: Patent encumbrance of large automotive NiMH batteries
Stanford R. Ovshinsky invented and patented ( a popular improvement of ) the NiMH battery and founded Ovonic Battery Company in 1982. General Motors purchased the patent from Ovonics in 1994. By the late 1990s, NiMH batteries were being used successfully in many fully electric vehicles, such as the General Motors EV1 and Dodge Caravan EPIC minivan. In October 2000, the patent was sold to Texaco and a week later Texaco was acquired by Chevron. Chevron's Cobasys subsidiary will only provide these batteries to large OEM orders. General Motors shut down production of the EV1 citing lack of battery availability as one of their chief obstacles. The Cobasys control of NiMH batteries has created a patent encumbrance of large automotive NiMH batteries.[33][34][35][36][37]
DCF............go hug another tree
Stuffed, seams-a-burstin'!
Here's my solution:
Slap a "Facebook" decal on every single GM product, then re-IPO the whole f'ing shitpile at 3,000X value.
Problem solved...
Fuck Yeah!!!
What's the big deal Harley Crapason has been channel stuffing for years. And they also got some of the tax payers green backs.
The trouble with the GM haters is that they are partly correct. Till they got Bob Lutz to kick some ass there, they really did suck for awhile, though I've always had great luck with them - the one lemon was a '66 wagon, the rest from then on have been pretty nice. Bob really turned things around - and they had to do it under the pressure of impending bankruptcy. I love my new GM Volt, had a Cruze and a Camaro I traded on that - both of those were pretty sweet too. My dealer says he can't keep Cruzes on the lot, and in fact the one I bought was lucky - it had been on the lot about 10 minutes when I happened by needing a car.
Maybe I was lucky to skip any real dogs they made - I never got one other than that crap wagon, the rest have been awesome. Rarely bought new. A lot of people sold them used for a song at about 100k miles, from the old attitude that this was about where any car was going to start to die and become expensive. But things have gotten so much better since - I'd get a Buick for like $3-4k, drive it another 20k miles or so, get bored, repeat - and get 2-3K trade in! It's been a pretty good deal for me.
You might buy a Cruze, where every single one that left the factory needed to be repaired by a mechanic in Youngstown making Bob King very unhappy because they were non union. Or the steering wheel could come off in your hands because somebody on the line forgot to bolt it to the steering column. Or your Cruze could have a faulty shifter that marks the car in Park but it is really in Reverse.
Or maybe you could buy a new Sonic where thousands left the factory without brake pads installed on one or two wheels.
Or buy a Volt that may catch fire when charging. Two of those already did. At least the first one didn't burn the guys house down because he built a firewall between his garage and house because he was already familiar with lith-ion batteries catching fire in electric cars.
Or maybe you could have bought a GM SUV like the Equinox that have had massive driveshaft failures after as little as 30k miles. They also have major head gasket problems causing cracked blocks. Enough so that multiple class action suits are being filed.
I could go on, and on, and on.
The fact is you should never buy a UAW produced car. I've bought American made, non union, and never had a major problem. I've never had a UAW produced car go more than 50k miles without a major issue. Either engine related, or suspension related. The front ends of GM sedans are garbage. You'll lose a tie-rod running over a squirrel.
The "fun" part about buying union-made crap is that it isn't ALL crap. Just enough are made that actually work to make it interesting.
It's like going to a casino. Yes on any given day you could easilly win, but keep going in and eventually you'll lose all your money.
I did notice the lots being full. Sorry I replaced our autos during cash for clunkers in 2009 and the dealer closings. Picked up a couple replacements during the fire sale.
If things slow down enough maybe Obama will offer Cash for clunkers part 2. The average age is 10.x years.
My Jeep qualified for the "stimulus" and I jumped on it. Went from 16 to 30mpg. Hell if I'm going to let the banksters get it all.
Same story here. Walked away from a '99 Ford Windstar to the tune of $4500.
Looked at the Lancer, and liked it too.
Then I took the last 2009 Toyota on the lot with another grand off of sticker.
Cha-ching, bitchez.
As a current Deathstar owner, I want to congratulate you on getting the hell away from them!
pods
And no "there is no other place for those vehicles to go." Now do your Patriotic duty and start slashing prices while ramping up production!
GM, the makers of that super cool car the Aztack. Yikes.
And the destroyer of the EV1. Great foresight.
I know, drive fuel costs up and we'll all want to buy efficient vehicles at $40K a pop. not!
I suppose having big brother as standard equipment is not a big selling feature. Keep your old car maintained(not by dealers) and make it last forever.
Where are all the Volts going to? Maybe they can reopen all the closed GM car lots and put more inventory there to help boost GDP?
They are largely going to Canada and Europe as exports, where they are actually supply limited. Check your facts. In Canada, gas costs more, and electricity less.
So they are only paying 60c for the electricity to go 40 mi, but gas is pushing $5/gal there.
Solution: Just pave more parking lot space at the dealerships. There, fixed it for ya.
They are not "channel stuffing", but rather anticipating that everyone will be rich following the Facebook IPO and be buying cars as though they were loaves of bread. And GM products last just about as long.
Yes! don't forget the Chinese parts contracts when the water pump goes tits up at 60k and other key components follow. I for one admire GM's excellence in planned obsolescence.
They are not "channel stuffing", but rather anticipating that everyone will be rich following the Facebook IPO and be buying cars as though they were loaves of bread.
I can see a time where a loaf of bread and a Chevy both go for about $6K.
Question to you:
I am reading ZH for quite some time and educated myself on the issues effecting our monetary and financial system. I got it: It´s broken.
As conclusion, I invested most of my savings into physically gold and silver. I read the stories about the "real value" of gold and silver and how the price is manipulated by uncovered shorts. I think it´s true - COMEX is fraud.
But is this not true for most of other assets in which people virtually invest via futures and derivatives. I mean there are $700 trillion in derivatives which do not impact the prices at all. Think what happens derivatives investors want to get the real asset....
So, here my question: Does the story around the "real value" of gold and silver" not apply to all assets (if there is no exposure to debt attached to the asset)???
Shall copper be 1.000.000$ per kilo? Is the real value of an iPhone $50.000?
Is the real value of an iPhone $50.000?
In US$, that probably a sale price
Or everybody will not have to pay for mortgages thanks to Obama, and with spare money will buy cars.
The sales are booked by GM when they leave the factory on the transporter. As for the dealer: well he's fucked, until he sells them, meanwhile eating up gobs of floor plan carrying costs.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wrpupus2&f=4
Look at this data on Petroleum Consumption. It continues to plunge. The US is shutting down
Look at Gasoline consumption
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wgfupus2&f=4
People may be buying cars, but they sure aren't filling them with gas. I am thinking very big hit to NFP on Friday
Simply means that the U.S. is becoming less relevant. What are the numbers for the world's consumption?
You mean the numbers that show the USA exporting more refined petroleum than it consumes. Those numbers, or the numbers that show the decline in US consumption actually still eclipses the rise in consumption in the developing world.
The fact that placing a massive export tariff on commodities would collapse the price of oil to about $30 in a day. Send the price of corn and wheat through the floor and give Americans a fighting chance again.
Confucius say:
Man who has big car has small penise.
I drive to work on 35mpg American made car and it is the biggest POS I have ever owned (had 2 exactly the same) and both were junk. Couldn't even make it to 45,000 miles without falling apart - complete joke and sad.
I think I'll be spammed by as many car dealerships as companies telling me how to make money with Facebook.
Oh, how badly I want to see Facebook open at $100 a share and go to $5 in the first 5 minutes. Sadly, I will still know that Zuckerfuck got to cash out at $100 share along with the rest of hedge fund land.
If there are no retail investors left, can a stock still be sold to them???
Once again sadly, every American is going to own Facebook stock whether they want to or not.
Looks like a lot of Chevy Xmas gifts were returned in January.
my co-worker's step-aunt makes $82 hourly on the internet. She has been laid off for 6 months but last month her paycheck was $8731 just working on the internet for a few hours. Read more here... LazyCash9.com
Awesome! This can be my fall back if that check from the Nigerian Minister of Oil doesn't clear!
Thanks a million!
There is no need to buy a new car.
My 2000 Acura TL has 135k on it and still going strong. I am trying to sell a 2002 Ford Sport Trac (good vehicle actually) so I can update the wife to a 05 Lexus SUV with 115k. I have complete faith in the Lexus running reliably for years on end. I drove a Camry to 249K and was still getting close to 30 mpg highway (4 cyl) when I sold it. Oil, Brakes, Tires and Timing Belt, that's it.
I doubt if I'll ever buy new again unless some type of cash for clunkers is brought back or I become extremely wealthy ($2mm)and it definitely won't be American branded.
You got that right! New cars are ripoff, buy used at huge discount and drive it until wheels fall off. Correct too on not buying American junk.
who was Alfred P. Sloan?
not to be confused with Alfred Newman
http://www.inventhelp.com/Alfred-Sloans-Concept-of-the-Corporation.asp
Looking at Hog's latest report....are they stuffing the channels, too? Or, are we back to the old cash-out-refy economy that we knew and loved?
I keep waiting for Hog's market to implode, but it has not....yet.
Car sales reached an annual rate of 14.1 SAAR in January even Better than the level reached under cash for clunkers. I don't know how everyone can afford a new $30,000 car every year or two. I am almost done with the loan on my 2008 Honda Accord (only $5,110 still owed at 11.75% since my credit isn't that great) but the car already has close to 35,000 miles on it. Should I just trade it in for something nicer and put roll over the outstanding loan?? I still have about $14,000 in credit card debts (not much headway during 2nd half of 2011) but down from close to $70,000 back in 2007.. Yes, I guess I overspent but lets be real here who under the age of 35 DOESN"T have credit card, auto & student loan debt (most have all 3). I don't have any student loan debt however
Car sales reached an annual rate of 14.1 SAAR in January even Better than the level reached under cash for clunkers. I don't know how everyone can afford a new $30,000 car every year or two. I am almost done with the loan on my 2008 Honda Accord (only $5,110 still owed at 11.75% since my credit isn't that great) but the car already has close to 35,000 miles on it. Should I just trade it in for something nicer and put roll over the outstanding loan?? I still have about $14,000 in credit card debts (not much headway during 2nd half of 2011) but down from close to $70,000 back in 2007.. Yes, I guess I overspent but lets be real here who under the age of 35 DOESN"T have credit card, auto & student loan debt (most have all 3). I don't have any student loan debt however
Whatever happened to "Put a Dodge in your garage"?
Trival question: Who was the spokesperson for that line?
'01 S-10 2wd ext cab, 4.3 with 5sp manual, bullet proof drive trainbut TERRIBLE build quality (160k miles). '09 328i sedan with 6sp manual, this car will last (and drive) forever.
US mfg have a LONG way to go before matching quality of Euro platforms.
Btw '97 Grand Caravan 2wd w/181k miles. completly disposable POS with every sensor failing
FYI the new GM/Chevy Sonic appears to be superb value and perform exceptionally well overall.
Just sayin...
No dog in the finance/economics subject except the government just totally screwed/stole every penny from the persons who purchased GM bonds before the government buyout, and this appears to be Obama payback for Auto Worker Union votes in particualr and union members in general.
These bond holders made the patriotic sacrificial choice to save their friend's/neighbors jobs and Obama screwed them, every one.
By every legal precendent GM physical holdings should have been sold at auction and the bond holders made whole. Instead Obama illegally gave GM TARP funds.
Soon you may not have a choice to buy a new plastic piece of shit and be straddled with a monthly payment and full coverage insurance. I was at the scrap yard yesterday and a flat bed pulled in with two pretty decent looking early 60's Chevy trucks. One had nice mag wheels on it. I asked the guy are you seriously going to scrap those? He was like hell yeah! Not much less $ than selling and no hassle. Also all the junkyards around here are now bone dry. These guys dealt in junk their entire lives and I have a feeling they know the top is in.
October surprise: Vote Obuma and a new GM car will be given in return not a bribe but a stimulus program..don't vote Obuma and you get to pay for the hand outs..GM to the Moon.
looking at some list of ford products, this article makes sense in a way that ford is included in the manufactureres that sold a lot of products last year. i just hope they could maintain it for this year so they could at least offer discounts to their loyal customers, including me. lol