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Gold At $1,950 Within The Month Reaffirm UBS; JP Morgan $2,500 Year End Call Remains

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by GoldCore

Gold at $1,950 Within the Month Reaffirm UBS; JP Morgan $2,500 Year End Call Remains

Gold is higher against most currencies and especially the euro. Gold is trading at USD 1,792.50, EUR 1,245.10, GBP 1,098.30, CHF 1,471.50 and JPY 137,624 per ounce.

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,791.00, EUR 1,243.49, GBP 1,097.56 per ounce. Gold fixed marginally higher than last Friday’s AM Fix which was at USD 1,787.00, EUR 1237.10, GBP 1,094.17 per ounce which suggests physical demand is supportive at the $1,800 level.

Cross Currency Table

Asian equities rose again today but China’s stock markets were again lower on concerns about the Chinese and global economy. Initial gains in Europe have turned to weakness but the FTSE is higher as it plays catch up after being closed yesterday.

The mooted German proposal to use periphery nations’ gold reserves as collateral was back on the agenda in Germany yesterday.

The Irish Times reports that in an interview with Der Spiegel in Berlin, influential senior minister Dr. Von der Leyen called for a guarantee system to secure loans issued until the permanent rescue fund ESM, with its inbuilt guarantee mechanisms, comes into effect in 2013. “The task of my generation is to create a united Europe. The problem is that, after the introduction of the euro, we simply stood still,” she said.

“For the labour minister, an ad-hoc collateral system on gold reserves or state assets would discipline national governments and prevent the current bailout regime going the way of the stability pact.”

Fastest Money Supply Growth in 52 Years Supports Gold's Surge 

The United States M2 money supply accelerated 2.2% in July from the prior month, the fastest pace in 52 years, and grew 8.2% yoy, the highest reading in 23 months. The correlation between total U.S. M2 and gold has held above 0.90  since November 2004, as currency debasement creates safe haven buying for the precious metal. 

At the moment Asians seem more worried regarding inflation but this sort of money supply growth is likely to lead to inflation in the U.S and much of the western world. 

Premiums for physical bullion in Asia remain high showing continuing strong demand.

Indian premiums were strong again yesterday as were those in Vietnam and Shanghai.

Reuters reports that Hong Kong dealers quoted premiums for gold bars as high as $1.50 an ounce to spot London prices, from $1.20 last week. Bullion markets were closed in Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia for the Muslim Eid al-Fitr festival.

Physical dealers in Tokyo saw selling from local investors, but they also noted buying interest from China, where demand for jewelry increases during the mid-autumn festival in September.

Journalist John Brimelow, who publishes the JBGJ, reports in that according to the Shanghai Gold Exchange website a “substantial proportion” of the trade there is for delivery.  “This is not just a paper phenomenon.”

Brimelow said that “bearing in mind the huge gold importing by China in the latter part of last year, in JBGJ’s opinion this is currently the key issue in the gold market.”

The UBS daily note reports that “the mood among gold investors appears to be to buy the dip rather than chase the market, which is understandable given last week's volatility.”

UBS conclude that the “violent sell-off hasn't done any lasting damage to gold, and the reasons investors bought gold in recent months remain valid. Our one-month forecast of $1950 remains in place.” 

UBS three month price view is $2,100 per ounce.

Very significant demand being seen for bullion internationally and especially in Asia means that gold’s correction is likely to again be of short duration. Indeed, the scale of demand suggests that gold may not need a long period of consolidation and could again surprise to the upside.

Non gold experts, many in the financial services industry, continue to warn of a bubble. Their analysis is extremely simplistic and almost exclusively based on recent price action.

However, the majority of those in the industry and the majority of gold market analysts remain bullish.

Throughout August, prior to the recent record nominal high and subsequent selloff, many banks raised their forecasts for the year.

SocGen raised its average gold price forecast to $1,950 an ounce for the fourth quarter of 2011 and to an average of $2,275 per ounce in 2012.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said in a research note it was revising its 12-month gold target to $2,000 an ounce.

JPMorgan said that gold could reach over $2,500 per ounce prior to year end.

The recent sell off has not seen banks and analysts revise down their price forecasts. 

GoldCore has said since 2003 that the real high of $2,500 per ounce (inflation adjusted and based on CPI) would likely have to be reached prior to gold being a bubble.

Those informed about the gold market know that absolutely nothing has changed about the supply and demand dynamics driving the gold market.

For the latest news and commentary on financial markets and gold please follow us on Twitter.


Silver is trading at $40.90/oz, €28.38/oz and £25.05/oz. 

Platinum is trading at $1,829.50/oz, palladium at $762/oz and rhodium at $1,800/oz. 


(Wall Street Journal)
Gold buoyed by uncertainty ahead of Fed minutes

Gold inches up after 2-percent fall‎

(San Francisco Chronicle)
Gold Rebounds as Steep Declines Seen as Excessive Amid Debt Woes

Gold Sales in India May Increase 25% During Festival Season, Jeweler Says

India gold seen gaining on bargain buying

Gold 2011 - Special Report - Asian Consumers Driving Demand For Gold

(Resource Investor)
Gold, Politics, and Venezuela

The Many Collapses of Keynesianism

Compare And Contrast To The Great Depression: In Three Parts

(The Guardian)
Currency war feared if nations move to defend industry

(King World News)
Embry - Incredible Physical Gold Demand, Premiums Exploding


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Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:46 | 1614198 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

They'll do whatever they can to prevent that from happening and make sure the longs will be bleeding.

I think we'll have to wait untill january before we see big jumps up. After the options of 2011....


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:59 | 1614214 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Anyone here believe that Ben is going to stop printing?...

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation by inflation, there is no safe store of value" Alan Greenspan

What else need we know?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:09 | 1614233 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Can't be said enough Snidley. Expansion of the money supply in excess of the production of goods and services debases the currency. All commodities will continue to rise. 

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:18 | 1614245 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The enormous cloud of paper hovering over the tiny amount of physical gold is proof enough that gold will continue to rise...

While more paper is printed in huge quantities, a little bit of gold trickles in from mining operations.

Too much paper chasing too little gold = ?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:19 | 1614249 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"What else need we know?"

I'd like to know when TPTB are long gold.  It could be now.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:26 | 1614265 GoldBricker
GoldBricker's picture

They're long physical, short paper.

Paper is the cape, physical is the matador. You are the bull; gore that SOB!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:08 | 1614230 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

I tend to believe they want a controlled increase in PM's. Not skyrocketed, but controlled. They own to much to allow failure.

The clincher could be, as far fetch as it sounds, PM confiscation. Hopefully not, but where is hope and change getting us now? Anything is possible...

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:24 | 1614260 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"PM confiscation."

The IRS already plans on confiscating 30% through taxes, so a plan is in place.  As for outright seizure, they will concentrate on large stacks like those controlled by the oil producing countries.  Where's Libya's gold?  Is Chavez going to get his gold back?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:30 | 1614275 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

PM confiscation didn't work in 1933. Gresham's law- good money goes to ground. It won't work now either. Gold and silver are largely untraceable. As for the IRS- you can't tax what you can't find. Gold and silver will be traded- not sold. When governments become too authoritarian, the rule of law fails.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 10:13 | 1614618 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

I do not think they would confiscate for monetary purposes. As you alluded to Sean, we are entering into an authoritarian state where we, or the Global sheeple to be more precise, may not be allowed to own PM's, guns etc.

I know, sounds crazy....., but what is sane nowadays? I talked to a fellow engineer the other day and spoke about QE3. The 55 year old "smart" Engineer, did not have a clue that the Fed was monetizing the debt, bailing out banks, and supporting their illuminati masters. This is one example of the majority of clueless sheeple. The "Authoritarian's can do anything at this point, and they know it.


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 11:32 | 1615036 moondog
moondog's picture

The denial of the facts is what bothers me the most. Very educated people are presented with overwhelming evidence of the fraud being committed by the financial and political establishment. Once they digest the details, they either dismiss it or cherry pick the issues they choose to be upset about. The normalcy bias wins again.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:32 | 1614278 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Yes, got to keep them holding paper (they are generously allowed to hold a variety of paper $, Euro, Y, US Treas, Eurobond. But, Gold is a no-no and will be considered a provocation and threat to national security). Bye bye Libya, Egypt, etc.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:46 | 1614199 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

If they keep ramping the market every day $2500 in the next month is possible.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:06 | 1614226 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Don Coxe see's much higher gold prices

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:10 | 1614234 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Cdad sees blatant front running in the US market for gold this good luck with that.  

The problem I have with gold now is that the TBTF banks are involved...which should make all of you gold guys very, very nervous.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:14 | 1614241 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Yeah, I'm scared of a bunch of bankrupt banks. lol

Demand for physical gold from SE Asia, India, the Mid East and parts of Europe is in the process of blowing up the paper gold markets.

Ben is going to continue to print fiat... The 'big banks' will continue to fight a delaying action against gold rising in fiat. But rise it will...

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:30 | 1614276 Cdad
Cdad's picture

JP Morgan is now your declared ally.  Later, when the price of gold falls at this morning's gain rate x2, THEY will call it volatility.  And at that time, I suspect you will be calling foul and writing treatises on the manipulated price of gold.

As for Bernanke, he just denied the opportunity to print now you must add wishful thinking to your previously mentioned toxic partnership.

I assure you that a slow, steady rise would have been better for your gold position.  



Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:42 | 1614310 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

False argument. JPM, GS, MS - they have no allies. They are cuthroat banks out for whatever they can get. 


What is more likely is that these "geniuses" who had hitherto only bought and sold derivatives on conceptual ideas wrapped in bullshit, have finally caught up with the global public sentiment on a "barbarous relic", and now they want a piece of it. It will be very hard for the banks to print gold as they do with fiat if everyone demands physical delivery. But of course the danger for fraud is always present when it involves the banks.


But I agree with your premise that a slow steady rise would be much better. 

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:06 | 1614405 Cdad
Cdad's picture

JPM, GS, MS - they have no allies.

You don't actually believe this, do you?  How about the Fed?  Quite an ally, wouldn't you say?


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 11:24 | 1615017 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Yes alright, granted. Although I don't really make a distinction between the (private) federal reserve (bank) and the squids, considering the same actors can be found revolving around the same doors in these institutions. They're all alumnis of each other aren't they? 

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:53 | 1614356 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

My friend is not the Fed, not JPM or HSBC, but billions of Asians, Indians and Mid Easterners buying physical gold.

I could give a rats ass what JPM/HSBC predict! They are only making predictions to give the appearance that they still are 'all knowing seers' and by extension have some control over the PMs mkts.

Their days of control are numbered and the number is dimishing.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:47 | 1614200 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

Hmmm, these kind of 'predictions' always remind me of 2008 and $200 oil...

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:59 | 1614211 RTFM
RTFM's picture

Yep. Those who listened to the gold pumpers and bought into that ramp in 2008 got CREAMED by the BUSINESS END of a STALLION APPENDAGE.

If you think it can't happen again, let me tell you: IT CAN. And probably will.

These gold pumpers should be thrown into ASS-pounding prison along with them folk who refuse to pay to educate their kid, and send them to a public school.

Thank Chango for folks like Prechter, Karl 'Morpheus' Denninger and Daneric who bring much needed sanity to this world. I will laugh like a drain when gold fails to hit 3000 dollars an ounce this year and PROVE KARL correct - AGAIN!

"I'm made as hell and I ain't gonna take it any more!!!!"


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:06 | 1614225 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The forces driving gold, the fundamentals, have not changed. What would it take to change them, worlwide?

A stronger dollar? Does anyone believe that Ben is going to hike interest rates and strengthen the dollar? Does anyone know what would happen to the US and world economies if Ben hikes interest rates now?

Karl is a day trader cum wannabe economist, keep reading Karl and following his advice and you can spend the remainder of your existence under a bridge.


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:37 | 1614291 RTFM
RTFM's picture

Ben doesn't control interest rates - the market does.

Interest rates are low because we are in a deflationary depression.

In a deflationary depression, the dollar rises, and Gold, Silver and crAAPLe fall.

Ergo, the price of Gold, Silver and crAAPLe must be falling, even as we speak. Ignore your lying eyes, and follow the Math. Which never lies.

If you are not intelligent enough to understand this bullet-proof logic, you must not visit the Ticker forum, as it requires an IQ in the high double-digits.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:48 | 1614337 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Ben doesn't control interest rates - the market does."

Wake up and smell the roses... Ben IS THE MARKET!

Did you miss QE1,2, and now the enormous T purchases by the Fed? Zero interest rates announcement by Ben for the next 2 years? are you living in a cave?

and yes RTFM, Ben is controlling interest rates... Until this scam blows sky high...

Karl has done a number on your head...

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 13:28 | 1615591 RTFM
RTFM's picture

oh, horseshit, Snid.

are you saying Karl Denninger is wrong? WTF? He is a world class expert on markets, computers, nuclear reactors and scuba diving!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:14 | 1614240 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

You obviously have no understanding of economics or montary theory. The movement in gold prices is consistent with the creation of M2 and credit over the last ten years. Listening to predictions is for the ignorant. If M3 stops and production rises- I sell my gold- it is that simple.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:02 | 1614392 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

When I turn on the Television and see a show called "Flip that Coin", I will know its time to sell.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:27 | 1614269 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Oil and gold are different.  Do you know the difference?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:51 | 1614204 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

It is bit of a bubble, based on demand fervor.

But it is certainly bubbling.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:52 | 1614206 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Sorry but bullshit.  CMG is a bubble.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:10 | 1614235 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Demand fervor? Yes, the demand fervor is coming from the East and it isn't showing any sign of letting up... In fact, it's accelerating...

“Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency,” he told attendees at a conference in Washington D.C. on August 23, saying he did not think the precious metal was in a bubble despite recently reaching a new record above $1900. And a flight to safety amid inflation fears is what’s causing soaring gold prices."

Alan Greenspan...

"Gold Sales in India May Increase 25% During Festival Season, Jeweler Says"


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:26 | 1614264 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

A coupel of things to note about the Indian demand story. Forst off, yes, marriage season, a festival of lights called Diwali, another festival that is literally about "wealth" accumulation, all of these are big gold buying times.

But the real story in India might be silver. As the precious (Au) gets really expensive, I've seen many first time silver investors at the place I buy (major outlet in bangalore). And they are investors because they are buying bars. A half kg. bar is the standard bullion bar sold here. It's all over the news here. So it might be that traditionally India has driven th egold market, this time I think we'll see it give the silver bull a little smack on the behind.


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:29 | 1614274 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Both silver and gold are money.  Gold is the senior currency.  You won't go wrong with either.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 12:06 | 1615195 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

The real buyers are not your city buyers buying bars. They are still the poor farmers buying Gold at the end of harvest, buying when a girls child is born, buying for each ceremony....

Any one who listened to your Silver story and sold their Gold and bought silver based on your advice last May 2011, they lost a ton. keep your silver to yourself.

silver is not associated with wealth in India. They are secondary to Gold by a wide margin, maybe it will have a pump and dump next year.

Ramadan coming up Aug 1. Muslim folks will also join. How much do muslim's like silver - Not much, I think..

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:51 | 1614205 Yellow Tang
Yellow Tang's picture

Where's my correction to $1650 bitchez?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:53 | 1614207 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Somewhere over the rainbow, Dorothy.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:55 | 1614210 augie
augie's picture

yellow brick road is such a misleading term.... 

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:07 | 1614227 RTFM
RTFM's picture

1650? As the 'Sage of Niceville' so rightly points out, Gold is not worth buying higher than $200!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:54 | 1614208 ItchiBitzchi
ItchiBitzchi's picture

JP morgan wants to draw a line in the sand, but they will soon realize that that line will be crushed and surpassed way above their wall of worry. I wonder what will happen to the comex, whose blatant manipulation of the commodities market has reigned supreme for a long time? What will happen when the sheep wake up?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:00 | 1614215 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

What will happen when the sheep realize that they own nothing but paper and/or paper promises and physical is screaming higher and higher?  What will happen when all the paper promises can't deliver physical silver? I would be very, very worried if I were one of these scam artists (Jamie Dimon, Blythe Masters, Kitco, SLV, etc, etc, etc.).  The day is coming...and...FAST!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:08 | 1614229 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture < The fallacy in this poll is that it does not ask HOW these Americans HOLD their gold.  I will venture to say that the majority hold it in places like GLD, unallocated accounts, etc.  No other words:  PAPER!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:28 | 1614271 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"I will venture to say that the majority hold it in places like GLD, unallocated accounts, etc. No other words: PAPER!"

You are not looking at the big picture and the big picture is that gold prices are being driven higher by physical purchases in the East.

Typical Amerocentric comment. Open your eyes... there is a wide world out there and the US is not the dynamo driving PM prices.

The US/London still are hanging onto control of gold prices through the LBMA/Comex paper manipulations, but how much longer can that last if soverigns demand their gold in storage be delivered to their home countries? Hugo went first... who next? How long till a fail to deliver? How much gold will central banks give up to bail their bullion banks that cannot deliver physical?

It's the paper pushers that are worried, not those holding physical.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:32 | 1614277 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:38 | 1614299 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

The topic was AMERICANS and gold.  Are you capable of READING and COMPREHENDING?  I am well aware of where strong PHYSICAL DEMAND is emanating.  Everything I posted was TRASHING paper and TOUTING physical.  R_E_A_D !!!!!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:05 | 1614401 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"The topic was AMERICANS and gold."

I am not concerned with the small amount of physical PMs being purchased by the West... The action is in the East!

Why are you so anxious to have the conversation limited to the West?

Scared that readers might find out what is happening in the East?

Hey, there is no, or very little, censorship here. I vote that the site remain free of censorship... If you want a limited conversation; ie, censorship, there are millions of shill controled sites that offer that option.



Tue, 08/30/2011 - 11:05 | 1614931 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

I was commenting on the POLL...Do you understand that it is NOT a poll that I conducted...Censorship and all the rest of your ramblings?...Are you on friggin' DRUGS?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:44 | 1614320 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"if sovereigns demand their gold in storage be delivered to their home countries? Hugo went first... who next? How long till a fail to deliver?"

This may pose a problem, but I expect that gold will not be delivered to "terrorist states".  In the meantime large stacks of gold that is stored outside of the "system" will be vacuumed up.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:08 | 1614413 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"terrorist state" You make me sick... This failing empire will rue the day it declared for emperialism. You enjoy getting patted down before getting on a commercial flight?

The Patriot Act... probably your bible, eh?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 12:55 | 1615462 Angelic Upstart
Angelic Upstart's picture

That's why the words "Terrorist States" are in quotation marks, it's arbitrary, he doesn't necessarily agree that they are!!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:20 | 1614251 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

line in the sand is somewhere east of Tobruk right now. If GDaff hangs on to his AU for one more week, the biggest battle in the desert since El Alamein will have been won - by the DesertRat hissself!  Zato's NewNazi Luftwaffe has thrown everything but the kitchen sink against anything that moves(cept under a 'green' flag...irony within irony!) for over a month now.

Track the  60 day movement of gold against the timeline of the neocolonialist assault by the deadenders of the  sovereign default  alliance....coinkidinkal what?

Algeria and Syria were the ones what insisted on the September no fly expiry...time to load up on SYP & DZY ....everybody whose done the doublecross on the Daffler has gone the way of Greek Bonds...look what the Swiss just did to their own currency! Kolonels' special spices!

 HANNIBAL and his elephants never forget!  All hail Carthage!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:46 | 1614332 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Interesting sounding thoughts there Joyful. Care to expound in non-code form? 



Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:28 | 1614476 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

I don't know any code V: even forgot my BoyScout semaphore....

but once we were legend:

Second Battle of El Alamein Order of Battle

1 British 8th Army
1.1 Army Troops
1.2 British X Corps
1.2.1 British 1st Armoured Division British 2nd Armoured Brigade British 7th Motor Brigade Hammerforce (attached from 8th Armoured Division)
1.2.2 British 10th Armoured Division 8th Armoured Brigade British 24th Armoured Brigade (attached from 8th Armoured Division) British 133rd Infantry Brigade (attached from 44th Infantry Division)
1.2.3 British 8th Armoured Division
1.3 British XIII Corps
1.3.1 British 50th (Northumbrian) Infantry Division 1st Greek Infantry Brigade British 151st Infantry Brigade (attached to 2nd New Zealand Division 29 October to 3 November) British 69th Infantry Brigade 2nd Free French Brigade Group (under command)
1.3.2 British 44th (Home Counties) Infantry Division British 131st Infantry Brigade British 132nd (Kent) Infantry Brigade British 133rd (Lorried) Infantry Brigade
1.3.3 British 7th Armoured Division British 4th Light Armoured Brigade British 22nd Armoured Brigade 1st Free French Brigade Group (under command)
1.4 British XXX Corps
1.4.1 9th Australian Division Australian 24th Brigade Australian 26th Brigade Australian 20th Brigade
1.4.2 British 51st (Highland) Infantry Division British 152nd Infantry Brigade British 153rd Infantry Brigade British 154th Infantry Brigade
1.4.3 2nd New Zealand Division New Zealand 5th Infantry Brigade New Zealand 6th Infantry Brigade British 9 Armoured Brigade
1.4.4 South African 1st Infantry Division South African 1st Infantry Brigade South African 2nd Infantry Brigade South African 3rd Infantry Brigade
1.4.5 4th Indian Infantry Division 5th Indian Infantry Brigade 7th Indian Infantry Brigade 161st Indian Infantry Brigade
1.4.6 Corps Reserve British 23rd Armoured Brigade

all propaganda to the contrary, once upon a time(not so long ago) England could muster the fighting forces of a disparate collection of races and creeds which held together not as slaves to an occupying power (current condition of the EuroMerikan mercenary gladiator legions backed by their drone superiors) but as members of a weal(non sic) which held the status of freeman to be commiserate with their own identity as warriors.

as Steely Dan observed in the last chorus of Pretzel Logic...

"Well, I've seen 'em on the TV, the movie show
They say the times are changing but I just don't know
These things are gone forever
Over a long time ago, oh yeah"

if interested read for a description of Baudrillard's deconstruction of the future past...and the death of 'reality' re: 1986...he da new Nostradamus...GDaff is da new Hannibal/Monty -  He shares the spoils of victory. USA/NATO command has only Mike Aquino and the corruption of values. Unequal terms.

GDaffs' forces will provide resistance in depth because he brings a vision the enemy cannot. But he learned from the fate of Alexander- you don't hold it, you don't own it!"  In battle morale is golden.

"I have never met Napoleon
But I plan to find the time
I have never met Napoleon
But I plan to find the time
'Cause he looks so fine upon that hill
They tell me he was lonely, he's lonely still
Those days are gone forever
Over a long time ago, oh yeah"

Even he lost to the banksters... failed to study the entrails.

Here's to sheep guts!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:38 | 1614504 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Thanks joyful. I get the  drift. Also for the link. Will follow-up.

Still code-y, but much clearer. Even i'm not sure the ending to this Libya mis-adventure is yet written. but then, I thought the Repub Guards would come crawling out of somewhere in Iraq too, but never did.

Strange days. We shall see.


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 11:58 | 1614906 Shylockracy
Shylockracy's picture

While thought-provoking, your argument is premised on a putative "September no fly expiry". I can find no evidence of such expiry date on the UNSC Resolution 1973 authorizing the blockade, nor do I see the willingness of the 5 abstaing UNSC to limit the scope of the text or of NATO's flagrant abuses thereof. NATO will not stop bombing, their troops are on the ground, the new Rothschild Central Bank is already up and running. Signs do not look good for Ghadaffy at the moment, but I keep an open mind.

Do you have any facts to enlighten us beyond magick, Baudrillard and your moral outrage?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 07:57 | 1614212 sudzee
sudzee's picture

I doubt it because the calls are from JPM and HSBC ( holding the largest shorts ) but could this be a Sept armagedon call. These banks are the FED so they should know whats comin down. Nah must be a set up.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:27 | 1614267 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

I agree, it looks very suspicious.  They might be looking to teach new gold buyers a lesson, while they still have bullets.  

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:03 | 1614218 TTaco
TTaco's picture

And Yet Dont compare it with M3.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:05 | 1614221 ItchiBitzchi
ItchiBitzchi's picture

These market duds don't know anything about fucntioning markets. TPTB who control the markets don't know that by knocking stops or the foundations of the market on the way down, Only makes it easier for the market to go right back up to it's previous high. why? there's nothing in the middle.

On another note,  I  should warn people that market comes down on 10/28/11 why?(1+0+2+8) or 10/+28/=11/ and the year is 11= 1111 binary code. Squared to the 4th power or 4th dimensinal consciousness shift = 1234321.. oh boy! it's going to get ugly..

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:20 | 1614250 GoldBricker
GoldBricker's picture

Don't know nuthin' about numerology, but I recall that October is Mr. Market's preferred month to crash out, so you have that on your side as well.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:32 | 1614279 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Every time the paper price is knocked down by a margin hike or some 'good news', huge buyers in the East are stepping in and buying all the physical that is available.

If this was not happening the price of gold would have already been manipulated much lower.

Keep up the buying India and China... You are going to break these phony paper gold markets!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:07 | 1614228 MadeOfQuarks
MadeOfQuarks's picture

So WFT is their angle? I mean the fact that Gold may go up is no motive for these guys to say so, so how are they planning to profit from making these predictions? 

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:18 | 1614246 GoldBricker
GoldBricker's picture

Maybe a contrarian play. If everyone assumes you're always lying, take advantage and tell the truth once in a while. They talk it up so they can sell it short more profitably (or get out of their current shorts for a greater profit / lesser loss).This is short-term bearish for gold, another 25% takedown.

Another possibility is the rat-off-the-sinking-ship metaphor. They want to be able, at a future date, to say "yeah, we predicted the gold thing back there in '11". But they hold off saying so for obvious reasons until they think that they can't afford to wait any longer, because it could pop at any moment.This is bullish for gold, with JPM indicating what they think the next plateau will be.

I'm personally inclined to the second case, but that's my gold-bitch bias. I think that JPM realized long ago that FRNs can take you only so far. It's like antibiotics; good if you're really sick, but if you use them for every sniffle they'll eventually lose their effect.


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:06 | 1614404 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Yeah, i'd like to believe the second also.  And what about the minions who work for JPM?  They can't all be clueless, there must be many among them who see where this is going.  I mean there are limits to how much influence a board of directors can exert upon a company.  If their own people start to sense impending doom, they may have to defect to the other side (even while shorting the crap out of PMs.)  But you know, according to the last CME report, JPM's massive short position has been divided up and distributed among the other PDs.  

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:23 | 1614254 ItchiBitzchi
ItchiBitzchi's picture

do you play chess? well that's not important.I'll put it in laymens term. I have candy in my hand. you are a child and you want the candy. I tell you, if you climb the tree I will give you this candy. Once you reach your goal, while on top of the tree, you don't stay to admire the beauty that sorrounds you, your mind is focused on the candy. The real prize is not the candy but the beauty that you could have recorded into your mind, but you don't know that, so you rush down to get the candy. But the candy is only a temporary satisfaction, while the view that you disregarded could have been immortalized in your mind. If you can't descipher this passage then there's no hope. If you understood, then you will know what to do.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:35 | 1614283 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

They can't stop it rising so the next best thing is a prediction of a rise that is unavoidable... They want people to think they are still powerful and all knowing.

Wouldn't do to have the sheeple think that JPM/HSBC didn't see this coming.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:37 | 1614293 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Volatility. Gold traders (all traders) make money off the movement of prices. The greater the movement, the greater the profits. The TBTF banks can make money in any direction- especially since they control the release of paper into the market. Until the market becomes physical, the banks are making money hand over fist. This is the point of leverage and capital reserves.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:11 | 1614236 Bullionaire
Bullionaire's picture

Negative JPM:SILVER ratio update - today is Day 29.


Suck on THAT, Blythe.



Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:18 | 1614244 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Are these the same idiots who keep saying SP500 will end the year at 1400????

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:18 | 1614247 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

If we can learn anything from this - widespread speculation leads to volatility. UBS and GS price predictions for gold hover around the $2000/oz mark and I'd be very happy when that happens at/before the end of the year. But I suspect that we're in for yet another margin hike at the CME if gold goes beyond $2200/oz and becomes a serious alternative to the petro dollar.


What we're watching every day is gold prices rising at a compound interest of ~30% annually. That is MASSIVE. To give you an idea, if you bought a grain of gold worth $1, in 52 years at the current level of rise, that grain of gold would be worth almost a million dollars. Obviously, something has to break - either on the supply side or the demand side. More likely the former which could make the price go ballistic.


Then there's the obvious multitude of problems with the world's largest economy and its currency. As we've seen over the past year, just because the fanfare of QEx is not announced, it doesn't mean it didn't happen. Surrepticious asset purchases by POMO while enriching the bonus packets of the finance sector, has not done a damned thing for anyone else on the planet. Such dilution and debt of a reserve currency can mean one thing: Reboot, using gold confiscation as the fuel to do it. And in all of the case studies on this area, gold prices go ballistic afterwards. 


So two arguments for keeping your gold, buying more when possible, and hiding it away from the prying fingers of TPTB. There will be price volatility, and there's an argument for a price drop against the USD if we look at gold prices against the Yen circa 1984-1994, but all indications for gold prices going ballistic seem likely in the medium term (5yrs).

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:37 | 1614288 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Obviously, something has to break - either on the supply side or the demand side."

Something has already broken... the Dollar...

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 10:13 | 1614617 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

How much would that grain be in Zimbabwe confetti?. . . or Weimar confetti?. . . or. . .

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 16:31 | 1616453 longorshort
longorshort's picture

There are basically 3 scenarios out there for gold.  It goes up a bunch more, it crashes, prices deverge between paper and physical.  I think it crashes hard at some point, because its been driven up so much paper gold beyond reasonable inflation.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 16:31 | 1616455 longorshort
longorshort's picture

There are basically 3 scenarios out there for gold.  It goes up a bunch more, it crashes, prices deverge between paper and physical.  I think it crashes hard at some point, because its been driven up so much paper gold beyond reasonable inflation.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:22 | 1614253 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

JPMs bullish call recently gives me more then a moment of pause.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:45 | 1614329 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:27 | 1614467 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Yes I have been getting these hot flushes lately...........

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:23 | 1614257 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Fed's Evans screaming for more stimulus --> gold just went ballistic

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:34 | 1614281 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Silver went right up with it. They can throw multiple margin increases, tons of naked shorts, and the kitchen sink at them at this point and all will fail. This is all about the rush out of crashing fiats and into tangible assets  without counter party risk.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:39 | 1614303 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Spot on Long John.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:41 | 1614305 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Gold $1827.50

Silver $41.57

LOL... Bring the margin hikes... let's have an all physical mkt and then we will see the real price of PMs.

They are scared to hike margins too fast... only so many bullets left.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:26 | 1614266 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Makes me nervous to see JPM make a bold call of $2,500 Gold.  Wouldn't that take Silver to $70-80.


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:38 | 1614298 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Yeah scary, weren't they supposed to fold at $47? Didn’t they have some kind of apocalyptic position that was going to send silver to $500 on short covering alone, or something like that? Yeah i remember that, i forget who told me, oh that’s right i remember now, it was cartoon talking bears.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 10:44 | 1614815 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Keep shorting silver then, tough guy. Let us know how it works for you.

"Only costs $5 to dig it out of the ground. . ."

Who said that? Oh yeah. . .

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:40 | 1614306 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

You scare easy... This mkt isn't for the faint of heart.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:37 | 1614290 ItchiBitzchi
ItchiBitzchi's picture

JPM is fighting a losing battle. Imagine rain and trying not to get wet. That's what they face everytime somone asks for delivery on their silver contracts. Imagine the occasional storm that threatens to blow them away. That's the scenario they are facing.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 10:02 | 1614566 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"JPM is fighting a losing battle. Imagine rain and trying not to get wet. That's what they face everytime somone asks for delivery on their silver contracts"

Exactly right... btw, where is that candy you promised? I climbed the tree, looked around and saw a runaway train coming our way... :)

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:44 | 1614321 Badabing
Badabing's picture

As the  price of gold goes up and finally the SHTF things will be harder to cope with than I thought.

Well the north shore of long island got wacked pretty hard by the hurricane this is my first post since Saturday we had one of those microburst tornados on my block took down five huge trees on my dead end street of seven homes. A dead end doesn’t rate so high on the list of priorities by the town and so we all just waited to get cut out. I have a small generator 1000watts ran the refrigerator and a couple of lights and small TV with a dvd player for the kids for about 50 hours. We had batteries and water and gas and food we looked real fine, until we heard a knock on the door.

It was one of the neighbors she wanted to know if we had batteries. What would you do? Well we gave her batteries and she was gone for now.

As time went on we gave gas food water to all who needed until we where low on supplies ourselves. I tried to explain to my wife and kids that we need to keep some for ourselves but was immediately made out to be the bad guy. The power came on for about an hour at one time so we let my brother in law borrow the generator and didn’t get it back when the lights went out again. My point is, this was only a test when the SHTF you cant tell anyone what you have and especially, don’t flaunt it! The ones the closest to you will want to give stuff away and save the day but when the SHTF it will be longer than a day. Anyway I hope everyone faired well I have a lot of catching up to do.


Yours in gold,


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 08:50 | 1614342 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Next time exchange batteries for food or sex.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:13 | 1614428 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Yours is the perfect example on why to have a little extra chow and fuel to give away so that you are not perceived as the bad guy. I've briefed my wife that when those supplies are gone, the store is closed, the rest of our provisions are for us.

Right now, if  I were you, I'd go around and talk to each neighbor that came by for supplies. I'd explain that you now expect them to be properly provisioned for any event that results in the loss of access to stores/fuel for at least a month. That means they can each get batteries/generators/fuel/food/etc. You might actually be better off for the experience if it results in your neighbors already using you as their "get out of jail free" card and going forward understand they are now responsible for being prepped. In any event, I'd make sure they understood that you only provision for your family and that while you were happy to help out this time, you will not be able to in the future!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:19 | 1614449 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Any idea how long petrol lasts for in a tin? I have some that has been sitting there for over a year, do you think it would be safe to use in a car, say?

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 12:10 | 1615221 moondog
moondog's picture

The American Petroleum Institute recommends taking old gas to an approved disposal facility after, at most, two years of storage. I use gas stabilizer in my stored gasoline, and use it within a year. I wouldn't use gasoline that old in my car, my lawnmower perhaps, but not my car. Diesel, on the other hand, can be stored for a year or more (especially with additives to extend life).

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 13:20 | 1615558 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Thanks man, i was always under the assumtion that it would last forever as long as the lid was live n learn.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 09:37 | 1614503 GoldBricker
GoldBricker's picture

Nice communitarian thought, but in my experience there's always one who is too selfish, disorganized, or feckless (think Greece, Italy, etc. in the EU) and who will end up at your door no matter what. This even happens within the family circle (or at least in mine). Recall the parable of the foolish virgins; there are always a few.

I prefer to appear to be poor (old car, cheap house, crap furniture). Of course, if you've got a generator chugging away out back, solar panels, and, say, a nice vegetable garden, you'll have to try a different tack.

When those neighbors come to your door or help themselves to your garden or fuel in spite of what you said, that's when it gets interesting.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 16:59 | 1616581 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

"Gold and silver are largely untraceable. As for the IRS- you can't tax what you can't find"


I have a news for you : here in France from Sep.1 2011 on, it'll be illegal to buy PMs with cash... Only checks and bank transfers will be allowed. 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 09:51 | 1634123 shacai
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