Gold: 1980 vs Today
When gold was undergoing its latest (and certainly not greatest) near-parabolic move last year, there were those pundits consistently calling for comparisons to 1980, and the subsequent gold crash. Yet even a simplistic analysis indicates that while in the 1980s gold was a hedge to runaway inflation, in the current deflationary regime, it is a hedge to central planner stupidity that will result as a response to runaway deflation. In other words, it is a hedge to what happens when the trillions in central bank reserves (at last check approaching 30% of world GDP). There is much more, and we have explained the nuances extensively previously, but for those who are only now contemplating the topic of gold for the first time, the following brief summary from futuremoneytrends.com captures the salient points. Far more importantly, it also focuses on a topic that so far has not seen much media focus: the quiet and pervasive expansion in bilateral currency agreements which are nothing short of a precursor to dropping the dollar entirely once enough backup linkages are in place: a situation which will likely crescendo soon courtesy of upcoming developments in Iran, discussed here previously.
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From the Telegraph.
Congratulations to Iceland.
Fitch has upgraded the country to investment grade BBB – with stable outlook, expecting government debt to peak at 100pc of GDP.The OECD's latest forecast said growth will be 2.4pc this year, after 2.9pc in 2011.Unemployment will fall from 7pc last year to 6.1pc this year and then 5.3pc in 2013.The current account deficit was 11.2pc in 2010. It will shrink to 3.4pc this year, and will be almost disappear next year.
Ther terrists
Gold was competing against 8% real returns on treasuries. That ain't so this time. The opportunity costs of owing gold are zero. When real rates go positive, I pay attention. I should add that interest rates and gold both maxed out within months of each other in 1980; anybody who thinks gold tops the second treasuries start falling (rates rising) doesn't know their history.
I would strongly urge readers NOT to sign up for the "Future Money Trends" newsletter, which is what this video is selling. This is a website run by the same pump-n-dump NIA guys that Peter Schiff has repeatedly warned his followers about. While I regard ZeroHedge as one of my favorite places on the internet, i think that promoting known scam artists subtracts from the overall quality of this site, even if they offer the same flavor of doom/gloom that ZH readers are looking for. I know that ZeroHedge is free, so I really don't have any right to complain, but I would hope that we would be warned of guys like this, rather than be led to them.
After several lawsuits, the guys at NIA/FMT were forced to warn their subscribers with hilariously blunt warnings. At the beginning of their disclaimer, it reads: "...never make an investment decision off of anything we say." *LOL* And they conclude their disclaimer with the same thing: "never base any decision off their website or emails." It also reads, "our activities involve actual conflicts of interest."
This is probably my favorite part of the disclaimer: "we receive monetary or securities compensation in the very securities we are promoting and shortly after...... we sell the securities during our promotional activities or thereafter."
*LOL* Basically, the lawsuits forced them to admit to being a pump-n-dump operation.
These guys are bad news. And, yes, that's a double entendre.
I hope this comment isn't taken the wrong way. As I said, I thoroughly enjoy ZH. I just don't like to see pump-n-dump scammers being promoted.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
Didn't Daniel leave NIA a while back? I know there was some thing with Shiff calling out NIA.
It's all over.....send all your golds to us.....vee will dispose of it in a safe and environmentally conscience manner.
Sinister Ministers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFocbHzPJkw
double post.....grrr.
Newsletters are for pussies. Never spent the money. They have this little thing called the internet. Info for nothing and your chicks for free.
Speaking of creepy dual intentioned web sites, what's the deal with "ABC Media, LLC" on the bottom of the ZeroHedge web pages (in the copyright footer). Ummmmmn, please don't tell us that the MSM got a hold of this last bastion of hope. This isn't the ABC I fear it is, it is????
Office 3, bl.51,
Jerusalem Str., j.k."Mladost 1"
Sofia, BULGARIA
Phone: (+359 2) 9743974
Fax: (+359 2) 8753599
E-mail: contact@strogosekretno.com
Administrative Contact:
Georgiev, Georgi tyler@zerohedge.com
Office 3, bl. 51, Jerusalem Str., j.k. "Mladost 1"
Sofia, Sofia 1000
BG
Father Krassimir Ivandjiiski, is a writer and editor at Bulgaria Confidential
http://strogosekretno.com/index.php?p=contactus
http://nymag.com/guides/money/2009/59457/
best insider info abotu wall st. comes from ex-wall st. banned for insider trading for they were the small fish fried while the big fish like Robert Rubin gets away.
I'm sure Dan, co. are all thrilled that an administrative office in Bulgaria is now a SPAM target
Chicks for free is an oxymoron. The three most expensive things in the world are home cooking, home loving and free laundry!
What makes me LOL is the people who pay $150/year to read Bix Weir's private posts.
I can think of at least $16+Trillion reasons why I don't need a newsletter to tell me the future of the Dollar...
Hey Max, you're a fuckan asshole.
fuckan?
Its because he's from " Neuw Yourk " the people who invented the phrase " you fuckan assshole". :)
I knew I recognised the voice on the video.
but wrt to the videos they basically steal Schiff's commentary and put it to video, so the videos are usually good, just the sign-up-to-our-offers are dodgy.
Crede sed proba.
Mr Lennon Hendrix noted:
Yep, and them's the worst kind, terrists from Sackistan, on account of 'em having big brass balls.
Actually those balls are gold......just like Janet Napolitano's.
SBSS 3. Why Silver and NOT Gold SBSS 7. The Historical Case For $960 Silver SBSS 9. Gold is the Gut Reaction, Silver is the Smart Decision SBSS 13. Baby Boomer’s Last ShotIn The Meantime Iceland Is #Winning
well played.
What is your take on this Tyler? From Kathimerini, are they trying to cover their ass.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_17/02/2012_428589
thanks
thanks
thanks
Rare triple post. Nice.
Iceland is winning! Not according to this and the advent of vulture banksters. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=27673
Iceland and its new elephant in the room
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=27673
A good find. When the Icelandic banks were resurrected, the government handed the new ones over to creditors of the old ones. Outstanding debt became shares in the new banks. In the meantime, vulture funds had bought all the old debt for pennies on the dollar (6 cents a dollar on average apparently) and now own the new Icelandic banks. The new banks basically own everything in Iceland because private and corporate equity was wiped out during the crash - so now Iceland belongs to 20 vulture funds or so. The identity of these funds is apparently a state secret but among them are the follwing according to some credible inside info:
York Capital
TGP Investments LLC
Anchorage Capital Partners
Arrowgrass
Cyrus Capital Partners
Centerbridge
Davidson Kempner
Fortelus
Tiger Management
Verition Group LLC
The neoliberal Icelandic government is negotiating an EU entry and this makes it vulnerable for outside pressure from the international financial elite, particularly the IMF, which now dictates economic policy in Iceland. As usual, IMF has ordered the Icelandic government to 1) defend the new banks at all cost and 2) privatize everything in sight. The privatization plans haven't gone over well in Iceland and the government periodically tests the waters to see what it can get away with. Examples:
- The government is trying to seize fishing quotas owned by fishing companies (worth 1-5 billion dollars depending on how it's calculated)
- The government is testing the waters regarding the sale of the national power company (Landsvirkjun)
- The government has from time to time 'discussed' changing roads built for public funds into toll roads
- The government has gone to extreme lenghts to use taxpayer money to pay for the Icesave debt (which belongs to Landsbanki bank) - despite the fact that its posessions are sufficient to pay the debt (which means that vulture funds wouldn't get anything) :-(
Despite massive cuts in public spending and massive tax increases, the current public deficit it 10% of GNP - meaning that there is no actual growth or recovery. Every single extra penny earned in foreign currencies is used to pay foreign public debt which "magically" went up to 90% of GDP from nothing (it may be far more though because the public figures are very inconsistent - i.e. state secret like the identity of the vulture funds).
So, to summarize, the Icelandic people have been stripped of most assets and are now slaves to the international financial system. Their government works for said system and acts as a debt collector. Could be better but it could have been worse too. It could have been an EU member like Greece in which case it would be crushed under the German/Brussels boot, it would still have grossly overvalued currency and it could have taken on the Icesave debt. In that case Iceland would be in the same exact position as Greece - basically in ruins.
the larger powers would have used military options against them had they refused.
ADL targets Iceland - Another Norway Massacre in the makingFuck Abe Foxman and fuck the ADL
In other news "Brazil was upgraded for the first time in 27 years last year after sticking it to the man in 1985." Like i said: "we have Hyman Minsky banks now." Good luck financing your country!
"Fitch has upgraded the country to investment grade BBB – with stable outlook, expecting government debt to peak at 100pc of GDP."
This means nothing. The rating agencies reward or punish Iceland based on how closely they follow IMF instructions. Examples:
1) "You are not accepting the Icesave debt (which would crush your country)? We better downgrade you."
2) "You are spending (wasting) your foreign currency reserves to pay to carry trade gamblers locked in because of capital controls. Good boys! Here's an upgrade!"
The second example is the reason for the Fitch upgrade btw.
Gold, bitchez
Silver, fuckerz
LSD and Cheesy Biscuits!
bastardz
retardz
Fargin Bastagez.
Shotguns and canned food. Friendz.
. LSD and Cheesy Biscuits!
Microdots and Microwaveable!
I'm diversified, I have Gold AND Silver.
AND Platinum.
and fertile land
mycorrhizae bitchez !!!
bokashi, trickz!
Both kinds of music......country AND western.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSZfUnCK5qk
Selling Mycorrhizae may be the new gold...replacing what used to be everywhere. Thank you USDA.
Going back to what worked well and created healthy people...
And fertile women. The U. S. is repopulating at only a 1.3 rate. If it weren't for the influx of illegal Mexicans from across the border our population would be going backwards.
Good to know. Now I understand the Repub 'War on Contraception'.
You might want Palladium too. Refineries are looking to use that stuff at half the cost of Platinum.
+ 1 re palladium, although my physical position is tiny.
Diversification....
Snob.
Of course you do, you're a pirate. And a Terrist. Expect a call soon.
When 1oz of gold buys the Dow like in 1932 & 1980 that's the real bottom.
DOW 4000 Gold 4000?
and don't forget S&P500 at 400.
and Silver will also be at $400.
I am not sure if silver will ever reach 400.
My attitude and morale is rather low after watching these little .80 cent pops and drops every time the word Greece is said. Then it settles to a base day after day after day.
It's almost like I will have to go into Gold to make 30.00 or whatever (Or lose it) than .10, .30 after fees...
There are times to put the boots on the ground and more often times of waiting and wanting to chew them...
But if it did get to 400.... That would make gold around 5000 and I would be standing up next to the house looking at the land of yellow...
I think we all are a ant farm, digging upwards to find new lands to dig new homes only to learn more sand is added or taken away...
Of course silver will get to 400$, and even more than that !
Silver's 1980 high adjusted to inflation is 517$ today and situation is worse today than it was in 1980.
Silver should be 1000$ at least in today's purchasing power, considering how rare it is now.
I'll take $390. Then let's talk about the ramp :)
Try 132$ Tulving.com and anyone else that understands dollar inflation. I think it was Sprott that threw around the 400 number, but he has an interest there.
you are a fuckin idiot
Who pissed in your Cheerios? You are exhibiting more and more of the attributes of a troll. Are you aware of that? Please try to say something constructive now and then. It's difficult enough to glean some intel from the comments without such tripe clogging up the process.
He's probably still licking the wounds from the other day.
The thread below SLAYED me. Total pwnage.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-going-grid-montana-style
Was that the thread where all the guys encouraged everyone to get off the grid using shit built on the grid?
Yeah, was hilarious...my expectations of the ability of ZHeeple to grasp the irony without my having to spell it out in blunt language for you all were not met
"You are not allowed to be self reliant in ANY way."
So sayth the mighty Trav.
Silver's 1980 high adjusted to inflation is 517$ today and situation is worse today than it was in 1980.
Demonstrate your logic. $50 1980 high adjusted for inflation typically comes in around $150 so I am curious as to your numbers.
I can't speak for him, but he is likely citing Shadowstats.com's inflation numbers.
Seagull
the price setting mechanism is fucked so the current price and its real value can't be discovered. MF Global cleaned out how many speculators?? just remember the value of your fiat isn't declining. this isn't about getting rich
regards
That's true. I am not trying to "Get rich" I have deleveraged so much that once the student loan is gone (I do think to flip a few bars of bullion to Uncle Sam and ask for the confirmation letter for the pay off... =)
what I remember is stories of wheelbarrows from workers piled with paper money so that they may eat lunch.
Or heard second hand stories about how currency in paper has failed and you need so much old currency to exchange for new currency.
Kinda difficult to do when the food riots begin.
Metals is a part of my thinking along with ammo and other contributions with my neighbors and family for the future if things get very difficult.
When I watch many of those you tube videos that are posted here and that are hugely informative and then look at the number of views they have recieved my heart drops. There is the so called 1%ers, the looters of this planet then there is this 1%, those of us here trying to find answers and educate ourselves. This game has been played many time before in history, the only difference being that this time it is being played on a global scale. ZH should have a million vistors a day not the relatively small crowd it does attract. When interest rates finnaly go up everybody with debt will get wiped out or hammered hard within 5 years because they will be in default before they have to renew their mortgages or will see huge losses covering their loss of equity as the value of their assets decline in the enviroment of rising rates. no debt, no paper, long vegatable seeds.
People don't like to hear bad news.
Say what again?
don't mistake the value of silver with the silver paper price.
it is a small market with not a lot of liquidity, that's why jpm/blythe have enjoyed such success supressing the silver price
read silverdoctors, or tfmetalsreport, or ranting andy if you don't know what i'm referring to.
it might be discouraging to watch silver keep getting smacked down, but know that the end of the charade is coming soon - the more FRNs they print the more inflation rises, the sooner the endgame arrives. soon enough the dollar will collapse and be recognized universally as toilet paper, not the world's reserve currency.
Here is a poll from my Blow-gah....
Which is most likely?
Dow 10k: Gold $10k 17 (26%) Dow 5k: Gold $5k 20 (31%) Dow 36k: Gold $36k 8 (12%) Dow 2k: Gold $2k 5 (7%) Gold will be higher than the Dow in a few short years 14 (21%)The Dow is irrevelant.
You can count it in peices of 8 or you can count it in some imaginary number.
Your choise.
LH
you kinda suck.
you post way too much and think way too little.
the formatting of your post is crappy, as is the content.
a little of you goes a LONG way!
12321 ,,,,you retard
no way,,,,,its going up...... min 20k and 20k........
"Yet even a simplistic analysis indicates that while in the 1980s gold was a hedge to runaway inflation, in the current deflationary regime, it is a hedge to central planner stupidity that will result as a response to runaway deflation."
While not mine to call, that's a quote for the week.
Now, time to grab some popcorn and watch the video.
I agree. This is what the Roubinis of the world miss, that they have only identified the first step in a multi step process.
I second.
This was exactly the reason I first bought gold in 2008: central planner stupidity. Except I would call it theft, not stupidity. If the Fed debases our savings by massive printing, how is that not theft?
With QEx and ZIRP and other banker schemes (TARP, HAMP, Cash for Clunkers, mortgage refi, etc), saving in dollars is like being legally pickpocketed every single day.
theft - many criminals, once caught claim stupidity
Do they? I don't think that's going to work for Ben and Timmay.
It's called central planning