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Gold And Silver Trump US Equities In Q3 And Year-To-Date

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the combination of a strong quarter (week or two) for stocks, futures rolls (and CDS yesterday) and the OPEX / index re-weighting it seems we had a modest case of small doors, large crowds into the close today (S&P futures end 1pt above FOMC-day close). Volume picked up dramatically (NYSE highest in a year) as the Dow closed lower on a Friday for the first time in nine weeks! Treasuries outperformed - ending near the low yields of the week (having retraced all the post-QE move - down 10-15bps on the week) but Gold remained relatively bid ($1775) and Oil also rose in the last couple of days. VIX was unch but noisy thanks to OPEX (and remember it's still at a high premium to realized vol - not entirely complacent). Credit underperformed as risk-assets in general led stocks lower.

 

S&P 500 futures tumbled into the close and after-hours to their lowest close of the week (since last Thursday actually!)...

 

On the week Bonds rallied nicely, USD dropped modestly, Gold outperformed, and stocks rolled over into the close ending the week down...

 

Since FOMC, Oil has lost, Silver has won and Copper and Gold have tracked each other sideways to higher... even as USD strengthened...

 

FX markets had a panic-attack this morning as the red rectangle indicates in EURUSD which went full-retard in and around the US open. USD drifted higher all week...

 

On the quarter, Silver was the big winner (up ~26%) followed by Gold (up ~11%) both beating all the major US equity indices (though Europe beat Gold on the quarter)...

 

 

Some serious dispersion in US equity indices on the quarter...

 

Since the start of the year Gold and Silver are the overall winners...

Utes are the Q3 losers and Energy the winners...

 

As we noted earlier, Healthcare has been the post-Fed winner and GS/MS have been big losers - not exactly risk-on!

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart - VIX risk premium remains high - even though you are going to hear again and again that VIX is low. This does not mean that complacency is not there BUT it does iondicate that traders arfe more nervous than a low abslute VIX would infer. The lower pane is the forward premium over historical realized vol priced into volatility markets (the higher it is the more concerned in the short-term)


 

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Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:18 | 2819168 FranSix
Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:43 | 2819241 Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

VIDEO - Strippers And The National Debt

Check out the lyrics.  And it is safe for work.  The strippers' pasties remain in place.  And they are actually gold coins.  It's pretty fucking genius.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:08 | 2819312 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Somebody better go restart the DOW transportation algo.  Norfolk Southern stuck a fork in it.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:21 | 2819176 Soda Popinski
Soda Popinski's picture

Blythe was a busy girl today.  Can't let the sheep see that the ponzi is crumbling.  

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:23 | 2819178 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

GS/MS: look what happened to JEF on Thursday. Explains reservation towards GS/MS as (expected bad) earnings approach.  

RUT/IWM very strong today: looks like an EOQ performance move or a genuine QE3 "froth" phenom.    Watch the short squeezes next week if that continues.  

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:25 | 2819183 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Nearly twice the US yearly of actual silver production oz was dumped in paper oz at 10:35am according to Silver Doctors. 62.5 million ounces of paper silver dumped just to hold the line at $35/oz.

Gold finished up.

 

 

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:32 | 2819205 Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

That shit is bananas "B-A-N-A-N-A-S" BANANAS!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:24 | 2819559 Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

Naked-shorting will stop once the buyers reliably demand delivery.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:31 | 2819200 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Hah, hah, hah, hah, hah Ben!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:35 | 2819220 Mark Wilson
Mark Wilson's picture

BAC YTD +65%

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:43 | 2819245 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

They'll try to ramp it next week for the last quarterly statements that voters get before the election.

The $40 billion per month may be front-loaded - nothing says it can't run at $50-$60 billion until the first Tuesday of November.

The market looks heavy up here, but be careful. That blank check has no limit to where the decimal point lands, or the number of zeros to the left of it. 

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:59 | 2819294 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Here is a theory:

some of us believe the Saudis demand to get some of their payment in physical gold (not all of it, they will accept cash for the complete amount they expect to spend for planes, food and whatever, but for a part of what is left they want physical). As long as the price of gold is OK relative to the price of oil they are happy. If the price of gold rises they will try to increase the oil price to keep the number of ounces they want (per barrel shipped) steady. If gold rises too much before the election the Saudis (the major swing produser) could engineer a price increase. Obama would not like this.

If this theory is accurate look for supression of the gold price until after the election. After that the PPT can let some of the pressure off and allow gold to rise a bit.

The true value of gold will not be seen until the paper gold markets are gone, whether by explosion or by atrophy.

 

ever notice how the price of gold rises slowly but falls fast...and in odd ways that would not benefit someone trying to maximize profits...? just an observation...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:18 | 2819334 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Makes sense. If I had something valuable that was the source of all my power, but it required eventual depletion to excercise that power, I'd only exchange it for something else with lasting value.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:23 | 2819338 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Nice observation!  I'll plunk a ducket on that. It's not "conspiracy theory" if it's true.  But I'd argue that oil is priced in gold to begin with, and settled with matched dollars.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:34 | 2819362 magpie
magpie's picture

Didn't the Saudis get special minted mega gold coins ? lol

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 21:13 | 2819703 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

Yeah, I've noticed.

I noticed something big happening today, for example. If you laid a see-through chart for gold over the chart for silver today, it would line up perfectly. Sure looks coordinated to me.

 What's it going to take to get rid of the paper gold/silver markets? And, more importantly, how soon can it happen?

People have been saying for lo these many years that, any day now, it's going to happen -- the suppression/manipulation is finally going to fail, and the beach ball held under the water for so long is going to fly up above the surface. But it never does.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 10:45 | 2820142 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

To me, its when the metals complex doesn't trade in tandem or correlation pricewise that i take notice!

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 08:13 | 2820002 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Good observation.  The Saudis and central banks play these games over and over. The Saudis grab their dough ahead of elections:  Oil ran up in the Spring because they knew they would have to bring it down prior to the election.  The price of gold is largely manipulated by the central banks.  When the mood suits them they drive it down where they want it, buy carefully, and sell fast.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:40 | 2819373 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Gold and silver.....fuck yeah!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:40 | 2819375 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Cool.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 18:11 | 2819423 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Got another delivery of PM's today.

Great way to start a weekend.

I love the smell of nearly minted coins in the morning.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 18:15 | 2819434 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You mean all those other money managers...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 18:28 | 2819461 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I see that Silver got smacked down $1.00 at around 11:00 am
Must be because speedy Bart Chilton is hot on the trail of the Manipulators.
The fucking Dolt.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 19:28 | 2819564 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

That was a very clear manipulation.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 20:32 | 2819660 plata pura
plata pura's picture

carlo slim made big sell of the precious and it's lessor cousin gold today to the persians. the meztizo and persian nations are bound and determined to have pm currency.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 10:47 | 2820148 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Persian?  Or Asian?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 21:28 | 2819712 sink critically
sink critically's picture

During an ultrasound, the fertility doc says, "I'm sorry Mrs. Smith, but there's no baby in your womb, just a gold bar."

Without missing  a beat Mrs. Smith says, "That's okay, Doc, there's always next month. Hey! Can you tell if it's salted?"

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 22:56 | 2819791 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Was it Yogi Berra who said "Nobody buys gold anymore... it's too popular" ? 

 

http://tradewithdave.com/?p=12256

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 23:06 | 2819800 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

The title should read "Silver and Gold Trump US equities"

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 01:43 | 2819890 plata pura
plata pura's picture

and in conclusion a war nickel will soon purchase a usgal of petrolene.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 05:25 | 2819955 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

News on Heraeus from Solarindustrymag.com

 

 

`Heraeus files counterclaim against Dupont in patent infringement duel.

http://www.solarindustrymag.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content...

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 06:36 | 2819966 richard007
richard007's picture

That's nothing, wait until Revelation's 2nd Seal is opened and the Iran War starts.

 

Scripture seems to indicate that Gold and Silver will go through the roof!

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 14:32 | 2820654 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

OVERDUE CORRECTION LOOMS:

Due to recent central bank intervention and short covering spikes, all these daily charts are extremely overextended & a significant correction is expected very soon ~ SPX,DOW, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, COPPER, CRUDE, GOLD, SILVER.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

http://trader618.com

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 08:59 | 2823874 dfwbcorp
dfwbcorp's picture

With the continuing printing of US dollars by the govenment, the devaluation is sending the buying power into the toilet.  Gold and silver will be more prominent in transactions.  Utah already writing it in as legal tender with other states following.  See http://www.goldandsilvercoininvesting.com/gold-is-money-take-2 for more.  People ARE buying gold and silver.  They may as well buy it from YOU!  Any entrepreneurs out there?  www.goldandsilverbizopp.com

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