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Gold Coins (US Mint) In Q1 2012 Show "No Hysteria And No Bubble"

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From GoldCore

Gold Coins (US Mint) In Q1 2012 Show "No Hysteria and No Bubble"

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,674.75, EUR 1,254.03, and GBP 1,044.17 per ounce. Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,664.00, EUR 1,246.16 and GBP 1,037.54 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $32.95/oz, €24.70/oz and £20.58/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,657.25/oz, palladium at $655/oz and rhodium at $1,350/oz. 


Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

Gold rose $8.80 or 0.53% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,677.00/oz. Gold traded sideways to slightly higher in Asia but has fallen in European trading to $1,674/oz. 

Markets may get direction from clues regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy and hints regarding monetary policy from the minutes of the last U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Fed officials on Monday signalled little appetite for further monetary steps to stimulate U.S. growth. However with the US recovery fragile, monetary policy is set to remain extremely loose and negative interest rates will continue for the foreseeable future bolstering gold.

Physical demand remains lack lustre with markets in China closed for a public holiday (reopening Thursday) and with the demand drop from the Indian jewellery strike.

Gold’s price resilience is impressive with the global number one and two purchasers of the yellow metal not contributing to global demand in recent days.

Gold Coins (US Mint) In Q1 2012 Show "No Hysteria and No Bubble"

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev, a non Executive member of the GoldCore Investment Committee, has again analysed the data of US Mint coin sales in  Q1 2012 and has looked at the data in their important historical context going back to 1987. 

He finds that the data regarding gold coin sales in Q1 2012 confirms that there is “no hysteria and no bubble here”.

Dr Gurdgiev finds that while volume of sales in Q1 2012 fell from the quite high levels seen Q1 2009, 2010 and 2011, demand was much stronger than “in the pre-crisis average for 2000-2007.”

Also of note is the fact that despite the worst financial and economic crisis the modern world has ever seen being experienced since 2008 demand has remained below the record levels seen in the aftermath of the Asian debt crisis and unfounded Y2K concerns. 

Interestingly, Dr Gurdgiev finds that the historic data (since 1987) shows that the "gold price has virtually nothing to do with demand for US Mint coins - in terms of volume of gold sold via coins."

He finds that the demand for gold coins has little to do with the price in general and that “something other than price movements drives demand for coins”.

This is something we have long asserted. Gold coin buyers are some of the least speculative participants in the market. They are safe haven and store of wealth buyers who are not guided by price and by making money. 

Their motivation is one of financial insurance and of getting a “return of capital rather than return on capital.”

Dr Gurdgiev concludes that “in recent months demand for gold has been oscillating around the historic trend (as opposed to resting above that trend in August 2008-August 2011 period) is the good news - the current levels of demand are historically sustainable, trend reversion-consistent and show neither hype, nor panic buying.”

This is further evidence that there are little signs of “irrational exuberance” or speculative fervour in the gold market. It debunks the popular perception of a “gold rush” with the “man in the street” or retail investor “piling into gold.”

Nothing could be further from the truth and gold and particularly gold bullion remains owned by a tiny minority of people who are more aware of monetary and systemic risk than the broader public.

Click to read full research and charts from Dr Gurdgiev at True Economics Blogspot.  

OTHER NEWS 

(Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley Bullish on Gold, Crops, Sees Drop for Crude Oil 

Morgan Stanley said it remains bullish on the outlook for gold, corn and soybeans, while the bank sees a risk for further declines in crude oil.

Gold will continue to benefit from investors seeking a haven, especially with low interest rates, the bank said today in an e-mailed report. Prices probably will average $1,825 an ounce this year and $2,175 in 2013, the bank said.

Tight supplies of corn before the U.S. harvest will boost prices at least through the early first half of this year, Morgan Stanley said. Corn may average $6.60 a bushel this year, the bank said.

Brent crude oil may average $105 a barrel this year, and may drop as low as $85, Morgan Stanley said.

(Bloomberg) -- Jewelers in India Extend Strike for 18th Day Over Higher Taxes 

Jewelers in India, the world’s biggest bullion buyer, extended a strike for an 18th day demanding the withdrawal of a 1 percent excise duty on non- branded gold ornaments, an industry group said.

About 90 percent of stores across the country are closed, Bachhraj Bamalwa, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, said by phone today.

(Bloomberg) -- India to Set Rules on Gold Jewelry Excise, Economic Times Says

India’s finance ministry will announce new rules for the levy of excise duty on unbranded gold ornaments, the Economic Times reported, citing a ministry official it didn’t identify.

A circular on the duty framework will be issued in a few days to provide some relief to striking jewelers, the newspaper said, citing the official.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced a 1 percent excise levy on unbranded jewelery in the March 16 budget, triggering protest from retailers, the newspaper said.

(Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s Gold Imports Were 2.91 Tons in March, Exchange Says 

Turkey’s gold imports were 2.91 metric tons in March, the Istanbul Gold Exchange said on its website. Silver imports were 20.9 tons last month, the data show.

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

NEWS

Business Week
Gold May Extend Gain as U.S. Growth Offsets Weaker India Demand

Reuters
Gold edges up on dollar weakness; policy cues eyed

Reuters
Europe stocks, Brent halt brisk rally

Wall Street Journal
Spain Faces Risks in Budget Refit

COMMENTARY

Casey Research
The Critical Number for Gold

Zero Hedge
Marc Faber: "I still recommend to hold gold"

Bloomberg
Euro Was Flawed at Birth and Should Break Apart Now

Bloomberg
The Birth of U.S. Fiat Currency

 


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Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:09 | Link to Comment Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

It's just people redeeming their dollars for gold while they still can, the smart money is getting out of the casino and into hard assets.... the dumb money is falling for the same old tricks/scams of wallstreet.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:29 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

We prefer our hysteria with a modicum of order.

 

No pushing, no shoving.......plenty of AAPL to go around for everyone.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:29 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Hows that Groupon working out for you......lol...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:31 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Still hopeful......any day now.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Like a chancre sore at a key party.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:36 | Link to Comment Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

the reason I'm not buying gold hand over fist right now is not because I don't want to, it's because I can't afford it

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment Xue
Xue's picture

Give me a break! Everybody can buy an half-oz coin! And if you really can't afford gold, then buy silver coins!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

I live in latin america, and earn a good salary for the country I'm in - $700 per month. I'm currently saving for an half-oz coin, which I should be able to buy in a few months, hoping the real melt-up does not begin before fall. But I need to build up a cash balance as well to make sure I don't have to sell the coin 2 months after buying it because I spent most of my liquidity on it and then lost my job...

I bought some silver already, as the poorman's gold, but my weight ratio of gold-to-silver was around 1:200. Even with the current fundamentals of silver and the screwed up 1:51 price ratio, this is a very silver-heavy position.

Now... finding a dependable coin shop in Panama is hard, I've not yet had the chance to see one. And then, knowing how to recognize a legit 1/2 oz gold coin, when you have never seen one in your life and so much of your assets are to be pumped into that transaction, is quite challenging to say the least. My previous acquisitions of gold and silver came from a silversmith's supply shop in Ecuador, with 24k gold sheet and .999 silver "chatarra" (granulate) that could be bought by the gram. That was a reliable source and practical quantity to buy - it's really sad that I lost it all in that unfortunate whitewater rafting accident...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

You know, you should really take care when canooing in the Panama canal - out of nowehere, a supertanker will pop out and capsize your boat.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Axenolith
Axenolith's picture

"Anything but" is the key to defense against paper. The gold and silver rock but particularly for the lower income, if it isn't being spent to get you to work, feed you immediately or chattering out of the ejection port at the range for skills it can be nickels, copper pennies, liquor, long term food, toilet paper, smashed aluminum cans, scrap base metals, lead wheel weights, etc...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:15 | Link to Comment Dull Which
Dull Which's picture

Speaking of the mint...Interesting bit on the BBC TV "news magazine" show this morning I caught while in the Doctors waiting room:

1 in 3 £ coins are believed by the Bank of England to be counterfeit. There was a quote from a BoE head suggesting that "if people lose confidence in the £ coin they'll stop using it".

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2123845/Three-100-pound-...

Oh, and machines can normally tell the fakes but most people cannot....

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If I may point out, 3 out of 100 coins are fake.  That may be substantially less than all the counterfeit dollars circulating all over the world.  

No one talks about counterfeit dollars circulating because it may undermine faith in fiat currencies.  

Six trillion dollars worth of forged US  bonds were seized in Switzerland on Feb 17, 2012.

Central banks limit the right to counterfeit currencies to their own printing presses.

 


Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:21 | Link to Comment Au Shucks
Au Shucks's picture

Perhaps in the bizarro world of today's fiat dynasties those US bonds were "forged", but once you escape the illusion and look at the evidence, you will find that there is a huge question mark over the legitimacy of those bonds.  So, yes.. if you consider current US treasuries to be legitimate, then the 6 trillion in gold backed bonds are forgeries as they are opposite (backed) of current T-bills (fiat).  However, if one decides to stand in such a manner whereas their heads are above their asses, things look quite different.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:13 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

How can't it be hysteria?  Paul Krugman told me it was a conspiracy created by Glenn Beck to get people to buy relics and push down aggregate demand so the Obama had to continue to print trillions of dollars to increase aggregate demand. That in turn feeds the conspiracy by convincing people that Fed QE could lead to "hyperinflation".

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/the-glenn-beck-debeers-conne...

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:35 | Link to Comment Genève Barbegazi
Genève Barbegazi's picture

The comment section of that article is priceless....

 

 

 

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment trembo slice
trembo slice's picture

One of the things that baffles me is when people say gold is in a bubble.  Haha, one of the comments said something like: "gold is the classic bubble: its price is going up, because its price is going up."

The way in which they explain bubbles in colleges is hysterical.  An unwise investment is not a bubble.  Bubbles form when policy drives resources, labor, or capital into assets/sectors that it would not be placed in the absence of said policy.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:14 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The 'gold:silver' ratio... IMO... Is what most saavy PM enthusiasts probably rely on to determine what to accumulate (& when)...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Those that believe that pure supply-and-demand will someday prevail would cite something like a 16:1 ratio as the "equilibrium" price for the two metals based on relative above-ground supplies.  Since the ratio is currently around 50:1, they would likely accumulate silver at a much higher pace, with the thought of converting some of it to gold when the ratio closes.

For me - and I'm no expert - the risk with that strategy is that when gold is really needed (as a medium of exchange/real money), it may be very, very difficult to convert the silver.  And since silver has uses other than as a store of wealth, it's not clear that strategy will pan out in a crisis.  So my PM holdings are more concentrated in gold.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

"And since silver has uses other than as a store of wealth, it's not clear that strategy will pan out in a crisis."

Or maybe it appreciates even more because of that fact?

I'm voting for a balanced portfolio of metals (including Cu, Ni).

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:21 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Ah yes...the barbarous relic that can't be eaten and produces no dividend is either (i) to be ignored or (ii) a soon-to-pop bubble according to the CB masters and their sock puppet MSM pals.

None of which is consistent with the margin hiking, duty hiking, counterfeiting/tungsten-painting, the intensification of local shops buying up the muppets "junk" gold, etc.  It's the same as the claimed "resurgence" of new car sales belied by the constant advertising of dealers wanting to repossess folks' used cars (cause that's all that's sellin').

In hockey, the mantra of defense is "check the body, not the puck." 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:32 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

"can't be eaten"? Don't tell Lorenzo de Medici

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

And follow Gretzsky's advice:
go to where the puck will be, not where it's right now.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:27 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

GOLD & SILVER => BEST RETIREMENT FUND IN THE WORLD!!

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:31 | Link to Comment Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Yea for sure, atleast for the next 10 years.

If you are planning to retire, I would convert everything to silver and just wait for it to bump a few and get out, move to canada sell the silver there where theres no cap gains, and then come back and deal only with the exchange rate slowly... (since Cad and stronger than USD) you might actually gain more ontop.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:41 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Canada.... you know... I live in Belgium where it rains like 367 days a year... so if I ever switched countries, I WOULD NEED TO HAVE A BAKING SUN!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

Southern Swizerland, the Tichino kanton. You'll love it.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:41 | Link to Comment Genève Barbegazi
Genève Barbegazi's picture

Or buy some downtown real estate...people will always live in cities....no matter what currency they are using (fiat or otherwise)....

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Downtown real estate?  Are u sure that's where folks will want to be when resources get scarce?  Downtowns are the ultimate sheep pens for the marshal law executors to patrol with tanks and drones. 

Ever heard of "head for the hills?"

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Axenolith
Axenolith's picture

That might not work real well if the next round of urban redevelopement schemes involves a lot of heavy infantry support weapons and airstrikes...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Dre4dwolf

If you are planning to retire, I would convert everything to silver and just wait for it to bump a few and get out, move to canada sell the silver there where theres no cap gains, and then come back and deal only with the exchange rate slowly... (since Cad and stronger than USD) you might actually gain more ontop.

 

Comment

I wouldn't convert anything to 100% of one thing - even if I was on my death bed. A fair portion in PM is reasonable but that depends on your situation as "fair" is a relative term. It doesn't take much for any government to confiscate PM or more likely, make their currency backed by PM which would drive the price down. Why hold heavy metals to buy things when I can carry light paper dollars BACKED by PMs. It then becomes a market where people want to sell PM, not buy. That is something many PM investors do not understand. And that can be done overnight without much warning.

 

 

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Manchu9Inf
Manchu9Inf's picture

I currently have a ratio of 40 to 1 in silver to gold.  So for every 40 oz of silver I own, I have 1 oz of gold.  does this seem to be a good ration to own, or should I increase gold? 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:32 | Link to Comment Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

so far my gold coins have slightly outperformed my TVIX position. think i might stick with them. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:35 | Link to Comment Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Personally, I do not believe there is any "redemption" through gold ... which would make it what?

On the other hand, in my present state, how can I assume that eternal life is better than the alternative? At least one of my choices has been made. The next choice will most likely not be mine or any of ours.

As a distraction? ... gold, whatever ... I could be happy living on dirt floors amongst the trees ... only my day job is in suburbia.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture
REPOST -
"7:47 AM Jefferies nabs court approval to purchase MF Global's (MFGLQ.PK) 106 warehouse certificates representing gold and silver assets of clients. The same hearing also included expansive debate on whether former CEO Jon Corzine's legal defense fees can be paid for under the company's existing insurance policies." -Seeking Alpha 4/3/12

"NEW YORK, Apr 02, 2012 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --
TOP STORIES:

MF Global Judge Appears Poised To OK Sale Of Metals To Jefferies

A judge on Monday appeared poised to approve a Jefferies Group Inc. (JEF) affiliate's purchase of MF Global Holdings Ltd.'s (MFGLQ) liquidating brokerage's remaining gold, silver and other precious-metal assets."

 

 

Does anybody have anything further on this?

The SA link:( nabs ) is down.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:41 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/abx
not a bad chart. not as "good as gold" of course. of course "they create new gold." shouldn't that be better? anywho...let's talk RISK. Does it even exist anymore? "All interest rates are created equal"? I'm not buying that....

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

No, no, no!  Risk is an off-limits topic - didn't you get the memo?  Well, here's the cliff notes: close your eyes and risk disappears.  Please return to your station.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:42 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Buying gold here is like being able to buy flood insurance during Katrina.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Bubbles need EZ Credit to form says the well respected Jim Juback from MSN Money web site. Gold coin buyers have no "zero down FHA loans" with which to leverage up a bubble formation. From what I read most of them buy with cashola. I am an "oilbug" and not as knowledgeable as a Barbaric goldbug, but from what I see neither oil nor the PMs are in a bubble. If anything, they are undervalued comapred to the vast expansion of global money supplies.

Here is an example from Forbes:

Why Are the Chinese Buying Record Quantities of Gold? (Forbes)

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/01/29/why-are-the-chinese-b...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

"Markets may get direction from clues regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy and hints regarding monetary policy from the minutes of the last U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting."

 

More from the propaganda forum! The US Federal Reserve is ruing the US economy and there is no recovery till they get the hell out and let it fall flat on its face and rebuild.  We are addicted to phony economic games and the world is sitting back laughing.  Get rid of Bernanke, get rid of Obama and start rebuilding America, we are not country run by mob rule as Obama may like, and we are not an economy unable to make it in the world with some real business leadership.  Bernanke has not be honest about anything he has done and to suggest the QE3 or more games are not on the way when this group of renegades are buying 70% of all treasuries sold is utter bullshit.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

HeadLine: At 2pm EST Bernanke announced Operation Twist will be discontinued in May 2012.

Bot Food. Not Edible.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

And will he announce the new stealth plan at 2:03 pm?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Just bought some more silver. Expecting one more good run up in metals over the next 12 months. Life is good. Completed last 33 days in row at work. Got some good sleep despite that. Got 22 days vacation saved up. Looking forward to some fishing this summer. Come on end of the world. I don't care. I'm happy.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture
I have a feeling that April will not be a month silver moves up So we  shall be closer to the prediction chart green line as it diverges from red in the beginning of April:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/132799#comment-132799

Which may mean there will be another dip by the end of April-early May. But after that...!

BTW, silver still stays within 32,5-33,4  range indicated in between red ( 32,5 - 1 year ago) and green (33,4 - October 2011) charts.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Charts ???

Charts????

What the fuck are you talking charts...?

You really don't believe precious metals charts do you...????

Ever hear of gold leases..???

And silver leases...???

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

The coin market doesn't set the price of gold. The banking cartel and their minions do. so doesn't really matter if US public sales aren't parabolic. Doesn't mean shit. Before the housing market crashed everyone thought houses were a must buy. The market doesn't mean shit in my opinion. They'll be forced to abandon the gold managing at one point or another and then price will explode. btw. 10 years ago almost every American slob could by several gold eagle at $300. today practically none of the American slobs could by even one at $1700+ The big buying was never going to come from Joe sixpack anyway.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment gold-is-not-dead
gold-is-not-dead's picture

:( but, but, but, Soros said it's a bubble, how come this all of a sudden? I shorted all of my holdings... NOOOOOO, George, ya used me, YA USED ME!!!

 

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

What the fuck with gold dropping $12.00 in like 30 seconds...???

Fuck you's paper bankers.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment gold-is-not-dead
gold-is-not-dead's picture

relax :)

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Take a hike.

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