Gold Down Further 2% – Chorus of ‘Gold Bubble’ Callers Out in Force Again

Tyler Durden's picture

From GoldCore

Gold Down Further 2% – Chorus of ‘Gold Bubble’ Callers Out in Force Again

All major currencies have risen against gold again today as the vicious sell off seen on Tuesday and particularly yesterday continued in Asia overnight and in Europe. 

Gold is trading at USD 1,723.80, EUR 1,192.10, GBP 1,052.90, CHF 1,369.50 and 133,225 JPY per ounce.


Gold at $1,700/oz Remains $800 Below the Real High (Inflation Adjusted) from 1980

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,716.50, EUR 1,191.10, GBP 1,049.59 per ounce (sharply lower from yesterday’s USD 1,850.00, EUR 1,279.30, GBP 1,119.58 per ounce).

The expected correction was due to the very over bought nature of the gold market in the short term.

The catalyst was the mini parabolic spike seen in August, profit taking and the 27% rise in margin requirements set by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which followed Shanghai, where margins were also raised on gold futures.

The correction is healthy as the sharp move upwards was making some investors and diversifiers nervous.


Gold in US Dollars – January 2009 to Today with 50, 100 and 144 Day Moving Averages

In time, this will likely be seen as another paper driven sell off on the COMEX as physical supply remains limited while demand remains robust, particularly from central banks and from China, India and much of Asia.

With gold now down nearly 10% or $200 from its recent ‘peak’ value buyers are getting positioned to buy on the dip. Some may wait until we see a day or two of higher closes and the adage to never catch a falling knife is apposite.

Dollar, euro and pound cost averaging remains prudent especially given the high level of uncertainty regarding the market in the short term. 


Gold in US Dollars – June 2009 to Today Showing Strong Trend Channel and Possible Fibonacci Retracement

Short term support may be seen at the psychological level of $1,700/oz but momentum traders and Wall Street players with concentrated short positions may press their advantage and manipulate prices to lower levels whereby they may close some of their short positions - pocketing a tidy short term profit.

Strong support can be seen between the 144 day moving average at $1,522/oz and the 100 day moving average at $1,571/oz. Interestingly $1,571/oz was previous resistance and therefore could now become support.

However, given the extent of global demand for physical bullion due to massive macroeconomic, systemic and monetary risk facing us today, there is the real possibility that gold’s correction is more shallow with the 50 day moving average of $1,630/oz providing support. 

The gold bears have jumped on the ‘gold bubble bandwagon’ again after a long period of silence.

The most vocal gold bears who are widely followed in the media and accorded guru status are Dennis Gartman and the celebrity economist, and uber Keynesian, Nouriel Roubini.

Both have made bearish calls regarding gold in recent years.

In so doing they have joined a chorus of so called financial and economic experts calling gold a bubble since gold rose above $850/oz in late 2007.

Gold was called a bubble by many in March 2008 (more than 3 years ago) when gold reached a nominal high of over $1,000/oz.

‘Gold bubble’ calls were made in December 2009 when gold reached a nominal high of $1,200/oz.

Further ‘gold bubble’ calls were heard more recently in November and December this year when gold reached $1,400/oz and then consolidated at these levels.

Roubini’s basis for calling gold a bubble is simplistic and somewhat incoherent but simply put he appears to believe that massive debt will create a deflationary depression which will lead to gold falling in value.

Previously Roubini had communicated on twitter that “Spam is a better hedge against inflation than gold: you can eat it and it lasts 1000 years. Gold is, as Keynes aptly said, a barbarous relic.”

However, it is difficult to ascertain his position as he has not backed it up with a research paper, an article or an interview. Rather he has chosen to tweet a series of somewhat conflicting and incoherent messages. 

One message suggested that those buying gold were lemmings and sheep.

Another showed a chart from an unnamed Reuters editor which purported to show ‘A Tale of Two Bubbles: attached a Gold vs Nasdaq Chart’.

The chart was a classic example of data mining and looked at only 5 years of data. From 1987 to 2000 the Nasdaq rose 18 fold in 13 years. 

Today at $1700/oz gold is up less than 7 times since the 20 year bear market lows of $250/oz seen 11 yrs ago in 1999.

More importantly, comparing like with like, gold rose 24 times from 1971 to 1980.

How can the crystal ball gazers be so certain that gold will  not replicate the performance of its last bull market?


Cross Currency Table 

Roubini also contradicted himself somewhat when he suggested in a tweet that gold bullion in a safe vault was a safe haven that would protect from “global financial crisis 2.0.”

He tweeted “In inflation tail risk virtual gold (ETF GLD) beats physical gold. But in global financial crisis 2.0 physical gold in safe vault beats GLD.”

It appears Mr Roubini is having his cake and eating it too. We await clarification of his opinion regarding gold and whether it merits an allocation in a diversified investment portfolio or as financial insurance against “global financial crisis 2.0.”

Dr Constantin Gurdgiev, a non executive member of GoldCore’s Investment Committee, has written a considered article overnight looking at gold’s correction and Nouriel and all the other gold bears should inform themselves by reading it.

For the latest news and commentary on financial markets and gold please follow us on Twitter.

SILVER 
Silver is trading at $39.49/oz, €27.40/oz and £24.13/oz. 

PLATINUM GROUP METALS 
Platinum is trading at $1,806.50/oz, palladium at $746/oz and rhodium at $1,800/oz. 

(Reuters)
Gaddafi will try to sell Libyan gold: ex-central banker

(Financial Times)
Gold drops $160 an ounce in two days

(Bloomberg)
Gold Bull Rally Still Intact After Plunge, SocGen’s Wilson Says

(Bloomberg)
Gold Drop Is ‘Warning,’ May Extend Slide to $1,700, Dincer Says

(Bloomberg)
Gold ‘Correction’ Overdue, Will Be Short-Lived, Commerzbank Says

COMMENTARY
(True Economics)
Dr Constantin Gurdgiev: Few Thoughts on Today's Gold Price Correction

(Marketwatch)
Peter Brimelow: Gold down, but bugs not out

(Forbes)  
Warren Buffett Is Wrong About Gold And Other Stuff

(King World News)
Robin Griffiths - Important Price Targets to Look For in Gold

(Seeking Alpha)
Comparing 2 Bubbles: Gold Vs. Nasdaq

(Forbes)
Nouriel Roubini Wrongly Compares Gold To Y2K Tech Bubble

(Got Gold Report)
Letter to Dennis Gartman about the Cortes Chart

(Barron’s)
Quantifying a Potential Gold Correction

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MarketTruth's picture

Back up the truck guys n gals.... btfd!

Earl of Chiswick's picture

<--- R O U B I N I Rocks

<--- R O U B I N I Sucks

 

tmosley's picture

Probably should have switched that order.

Just sayin'.

Earl of Chiswick's picture

Actually a great deal of thought went into the sequence (it's an inside baseball thing) done for the benefit of the great professor.

 

You need to understand his ego is so Huge that he will read a high number on the negative arrow as a disagreement with the statement that he sucks and may even click on it himself.  But we will all understand its true meaning, that the emperor has no clothes.

 

A side objective is to see if the Zero Hedge rating system can handle triple digits.

fuu's picture

Yes it can, someone recently went over 130.

eisley79's picture

zerohedge is made with drupal, and their up down thing is just a mod for the commenting module, they didnt make it, but at least they arent using the default one any more....

Hearst's picture

I hate the pride these top callers have.  Whether it's Roubini or Pretcher or Gartman, they never NEVER admit being wrong.  They twist their mistakes using double speak into half truths and the MSM gleefully have them all back on air to explain the new upmove in precious metals..Sickening.

 

When I think of my Gold and Silver holdings I like to think about them years out.  Where's Gold going to be in 2014 or 2016?  Does anyone who holds physical (besides the corrupt bullion banks and commentators) believe Gold and Silver will not be multiples of their current prices??  Of course not!  Having a long term outlook really calms the nerves.  Not to say I don't follow the prices daily, but I relax more about it.  Having sound money = a sound mind.

Bastiat's picture

They twist their mistakes using double speak into half truths

Clearly you don't have an EC Phd so you are not able to follow their exquisite and subtle reasoning.

eisley79's picture

dont measure your metals in dollars, and you wont even care.  Measure it in itself, aka in ounces.  Whether you have on paper profits or on paper losses, is really irrelevant.  Unlike equities or bonds, the underlying entity in metals, cannot go bankrupt, or cease to exist.

They simply are, count the ounces, and sell them only to buy other real assets.  Like land, etc

HelluvaEngineer's picture

I'll buy more around 1600.  And Roubini still sucks.

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I doubt this will be a serious correction, and I doubt that the mass buying during spring and summer will be wiped out simply with the spec longs being scared off. I blew 20% of my powder yesterday, will probably buy more in a couple of hours if the price comes down a little, and will blow the rest next week. I don't think they'll knock any of the sentiment out of gold here really and the only way for it to go sub 1620 or so would be more margin requirment increases or shenanigans...just my two cents...

DosZap's picture

the MAXILOPEZ,@ 09:01

Bro,

Get ready for this.

< and the only way for it to go sub 1620 or so would be more margin requirment increases or shenanigans...just my two cents...>

I see the same scenario coming they did on Silver.

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

could be, but the margin requirements are now about the same as they are for silver are they not? so wouldn't another 10% or so really move this towards a physical market??

Love it to happen though; I'll keep about half of my powder dry for next week. The rest I blew yesterday and will probably blow in a few hours...

cynicalskeptic's picture

Sorry, seems like 'a few hours' was too long a wait......  on the way up 

Thomas's picture

Roubini should spend more time thinking and less time talking. You could plot the assets of a compounding money market versus Yak Dung in Lahsa and get a beautiful overlap if you are willing to use arbitrary origins and different axes (which is exactly what he did). 

I scanned all the gold stories on the CNBC videos. It is unimaginable to me that a secular bull market could be so reviled as gold. That blowhard Gartman--I hope you are reading this--was yacking (Yaking) about cab drivers and shoeshine boys buying gold. Bullshit. You are inventing that crap. I work with 30 very bright colleagues at a top-ten University chemistry department. (Some of you may know my name; anonymity ain't what it used to be.) These bright guys with my prodding are not yet buying gold. Everybody knows about gold, but they are not buying it.

I've been a gold bull since 1999 and I haven't sold a fucking ounce. (Do I sound pissed at the margin hikes and media campaign?)

Thomas

thesapein's picture

Yes, you sound pissed. It's frustrating playing with zombies. Rather, it's frustrating expecting zombies to be something more. But if you just face reality and see that they are zombies and not real people, it helps. Nature likes the shotgun method, like shooting millions of sperm out so that just one might level up. You are literally one in a million. Maybe feel some sadness for them, but don't let them throw you off to die with them. Btw, are those bright people you mentioned really bright if they aren't listening to you?

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The 16's aren't coming.  The buying opportunity is right now; anything below $1800 is going to be a bargain by Tuesday.  Their best opportunity to knock this below $1700 was this morning, didn't happen.  If we close today above $1700, it's off to the races.  Tomorrow will be pants-shittingly epic.

russki standart's picture

Not yet. I would wait until Gold approached $1670, 50 MA within the next week or so. On the other hand, I am confident that Gold will trade well over $2500 per oz within 12 months given the amount of money that will be 'printed' to re-elect Obama. Futher, we are entering the 4th quarter, with Diwali, Christmas and various New years celebrations approaching. For those of us who are long bullion, and are trying to preserve capital, we need do nothing. This sell off is a blip.

FYI, I am not a gold bug. I look forward to the day when I can sell all of it and buy the top floor of the Trump Las Vegas, complete with sex slave girls and bathtubs of champagne. 

O_HAI's picture

Those "extras" come standard with the place, no?

Dapper Dan's picture

 

Before we removed MacArthur from the Philippines in WWII we removed the gold and silver, and burned the fiats. We removed 10,800 pounds of gold!

Apparently it was more important to keep the gold from falling into the hands of the Japanese than removing Old "I'll shall return" from Corregidor, if gold is in a "bubble" it is a 4,000 year old bubble.

Story can be read here: http://corregidor.org/chs_trident/uss_trout.htm

 

There were 18,000 Treasury checks totaling $38,000,000 which had been received by the Philippine Treasury for payment and had not been sent to the United States for credit. In addition to these securities, there was on Corregidor a large amount of gold, silver, securities, and government documents as yet not been turned over to the Commissioner. These had served as the Philippine Commonwealth reserves and comprised over one-and-a-third million grams of gold and nearly sixteen and one-half million silver pesos. A rough summation of the valuables collected under the first War Powers Act was nearly $3,000,000 in American currency, $28,000,000 in Philippine currency and 10,800 pounds of gold. The paper currency was easily disposed of by burning after the serial numbers had been recorded and radioed to the United States

Because the gold was the most indestructible, it was important to get it out of the Philippines. As the opportunity for this seemed unlikely, it appeared inevitable that the gold would soon have to be sunk in the Bay and risk recovery by the Japanese. President Quezon and the High Commissioner were greatly concerned with the problem. If it could not be destroyed, or safely sunk in the bay, there was but one answer remaining -- evacuate the gold and silver by submarine.

 

alexwest's picture

who gives a fuck about roubini..

best description    i saw about him was

"before crisis 2008 he was nobody and couldnt pay for taxi fare by reading 1 hour lecture"

 

i never saw  VIDEOS ON UTUBE 'ROUBINI WAS RIGHT'

alx

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I suppose pundits like him realised to get to the top of the class (as for back as elementary school) it was a better idea to say what the teacher wanted to hear than to say what was correct or made sence. Its worked well; they've built entire careeres around being delusioned and promoting delusion. However, when they look at the world do they understand what is happening??

cossack55's picture

Can I eat it yet?

Thomas's picture

We may all eat it eventually (but that was funny.)

Smiddywesson's picture

People trading paper gold feel like it went in the other end.

fockewulf190's picture

If your waiting to be told then yes, go right ahead.  Don´t worry about the damage to your teeth, I´m sure your dentist will accept the toothmarked bauble as payment for any repairs.  Have fun digging through your own baby ruths.  That will be one expensive flush if you miss it.

tmosley's picture

Feel free, but it will be much more filling later.

thesapein's picture

This ongoing insider joking does remind me, remember that one quick method to test a gold coin, bite it to see if it's softer than your teeth. Nice thing about gold is that it's completely at home around us organics and plays nice in the body. It's actually perfect for use in medical devices that must go inside the body because it's non corrosive, non toxic, can be made into any shape, etc. Ask any cyborg. 

cynicalskeptic's picture

No you can't eat it yey - nor will you ever be able to  BUT unlike those $100 trillion Zimbabwe banknotes, a pinch of gold dust WILL buy you enough food for a day

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM

 

The first comment on this video is:


All the westernized countries look at these poor people and pitys them, not at? all aware that this is coming their way very soon!

Sean7k's picture

Typical options expiration sell off. The last two days, the entire world production of gold was traded. Twice the production of silver. The CME is complicit. Excellent market entrance prior to Bernanke's "we aren't doing nothin' speech". 

eigenvalue's picture

But in my humble opinion, if Bernanke should say "we aren't doing anything", gold and silver would be hammered again. No QE3 now is supposed to be bearish for PMs. 

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

QE3 = dollar debasement = bullish for gold.

No QE3 = stock market fail = bullish for gold.  

There is literally nothing he can announce that won't be bullish for gold.  Add on the crash in Europe happning currently, and we could see 2k gold as early as mid September.

TradingJoe's picture

Exactley! Nothing but noise and blantant manipulation via margin hike increases, the leaked ones I mean, options expiration, and all ahead of Benjie's (I'll give you nothing this time) speach! Very Funny indeed!

SheepDog-One's picture

Hillarious the concern equity bulls have for those holding gold, as the truck theyre on pulls into the meat cutter house.

Wont hear much from the equity bulls/gold bubble callers when equities roll over and die soon.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

None of the fundamentals of crumbling fiat and crumbling world financial system have changed...

Once again the paper market is wagging the physical...

Buy physical and sit tight...

Weak hands or those wanting a short term profit paid in fiat are not likely to get back into gold at the lower price they expect... PMs that are sold are headed East and won't be coming back near the current price levels...

Are the central banks selling gold?

Absinthe Minded's picture

The price may have dropped, but the premiums haven't. I like how they say gold dropped 5.6% on no news on WSJ this morning. Hiking margins 26% is no news? Fuck off Bernanke bugle blowers. Why don't they hike oil Margins by 25 or 30%? Then watch their asshole buddies at Exxon Mobil cry. No then the big boys at the CME (Chicago Manipulation Exchange) wouldn't get invited to the Turks and Caicos by their greasy oil buddies. By the way, I hope Ilene fucked up their playground down there.

russki standart's picture

It is a temporary phenomenon, with weak holders sold out in favour of the strong. When the dollars resumes its decline, just watch as the rest of the world moves into Gold. By comparison the 1970's gold bubble will look like a bathtub fart.

Smiddywesson's picture

You are, no doubt, correct.  The only question in my mind is how far down they push it and how long it takes to recover.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Just posted this in another thread...I do think it's quite peculiar how all the big brokerage firms increased their price targets on gold, only to then immediately see it smacked down.

From UBS' Dominic Schnider:

Don't panic

The sharp selloff in the gold price has raised concern among investors
about whether the metal had reached unsustainable price
levels and that more weakness lies ahead. The CME Group also announced
a 27% increase in maintenance margins to USD 7,000
for each 100-oz futures contract at Comex. While a dip to the lower
range of our 1- to 3-month trading range at USD 1,724/oz is
at hand, month-to-date the metal is still up more than 7%, and
yesterday’s decline should be seen in this context. This begs the
question of whether markets will sell down the gold to price levels
prior to the US credit-rating downgrade, which would bring the
metal down to USD 1,640/oz, our former trading range low. We
do not expect this to happen. US public finances are far from getting
better, especially with economic growth likely to slump. A firm
durable goods order report for July does not change this picture.
In addition, the structural problems in the Eurozone have yet to be
tackled seriously enough to prevent a disintegration of the euro in
the long run.

Recommendation

We advise investors to build up long positions in gold from a diversification
perspective. Our forecasts remain unchanged. For investors
who want to be positioned more conservatively, the rise in
option volatility toward 30% offers very attractive opportunities to
set strike levels at USD 1,640/oz. Selling volatility (put options) at this
level would bring a 9-10% annual yield over the next 1-3 months.

DaBernank's picture

OK, you all should clearly give me your physical gold and in exchange I'll give you GLD Sept 150 puts, it's a great deal, trust me, I'm doing you a favour. Just ask Doug Kass, Gartman, Roubini....

I Told YOU So's picture

I do have to mention that the 125 and 150 gld puts I suggested as a hedge against profits on the physical are WAY up in just 2  days. nothing wrong with "paper" gold if its used this way, paper money is still money and it can be exchanged for the real stuff..

DaBernank's picture

I agree, I've been cashing in on the silver volatility with trading leveraged ETFs, I just don't consider it "owning" silver.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

My last euro gold buy was in the Spring and was only a ounce + a month - I won't be getting my knickers in a twist until it drops another 200 Euros.

PulauHantu29's picture

I am looking forward to a Dow of 700. Should be very impressive. When Gold was $1,910 Faber said he would start buying again if gold dropped $150...so if he is representative of private BiG money, I suspect there's alot of pension funds and private buyers grabbing as much gold as they can before it rises to $2,500.

Jim in MN's picture

Since the average couple will need about a million dollars (real) to retire, the minimum prudent gold holding would be about $100,000 per household.

Better get on that, America.  Kind of a deal at the minute.

WallStreetClassAction.com's picture

Well you CAN'T DENY that gold pricing nowadays has a healthy speculative component. What % of the overall price is hard to tell. But careful of people saying "gold can only go up".

DaBernank's picture

If you own gold for what I (and many others) consider to be the right reasons, the price really doesn't matter. If you are trading the volatility to make a quick paper profit, then people should heed your warning. In other words, if gold drops to $600 because unemployment is at 5% and interest rates are at a healthy 6% that's great, my physical gold is there as an insurance policy against bad times 20 or 30 years from now.