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Gold Falls Again on Options Expiry –Supported by Global Debt Crisis & Iranian Oil Jitters
Submitted by GoldCore
Gold Falls Again on Options Expiry –Supported by Global Debt Crisis & Iranian Oil Jitters
Gold is trading at USD 1,696.10, EUR 1,252.60, GBP 1,083.30, CHF 1,546.20, JPY 130,370 and CNY 10,780 per ounce.
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,697.50, GBP 1,083.90, and EUR 1,253.14 per ounce.
Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,704.00, GBP 1,085.42, and EUR 1,266.44 per ounce
Gold in USD – 6 Months (Daily) and 2 Most Recent Gold Options Expiry (09/27/11 and Today)
Gold is higher all currencies today and is up 1.2% in USD and 0.75% in EUR after yesterdays 2% falls and there are renewed reports of physical buying activity in Asia.
Yesterdays falls may been margin driven and have been liquidation by speculators and investors covering losses elsewhere due to the renewed market volatility and losses seen in equity markets globally in recent days.
Gold in USD – 30 Days (Tick)
Recent years have seen a trend of gold and silver selling off aggressively in the run into options expiries. This pattern has been less marked in 2011 but was more frequently seen in recent years.
Investors have complained to the CFTC about violations of law in the gold and silver markets and some have sued JPMorgan Chase & Co and HSBC Holdings Plc accusing them of conspiring to drive down prices, and reaping an estimated hundreds of millions of dollars of illegal profits.
The sell off had all the hallmarks of a bear raid by concentrated leveraged shorts as the news flow was extremely gold positive – both from Europe and the US.
This most recent sell off may again be completely coincidental but the CFTC might want to keep an eye on such unusual trends in the precious metal markets in order to ensure fair and free markets and protect the interests of all investors.
Such sell offs, whether manipulative and manufactured or not, should be used to accumulate physical bullion by buying the dip.
The US Supercommittee’s abject failure to make any progress regarding the US budget woes yesterday is very gold bullish.
Gold in USD – 1 Year (Daily) – 50, 100 & 144 DMA
Asian retail, high net worth and institutional buyers and central bank buyers will take advantage of this latest correction and buy the dip as was seen in September.
Besides the ongoing global debt crisis, gold will also be supported by increasing geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel and its allies the US, Britain and Canada.
The US, Britain and Canada announced yesterday new sanctions on Iran's energy and financial sectors.
Iran and its powerful ally Russia criticized the new Western sanctions imposed on Tehran saying they were illegal and futile.
The unilateral measures against Iran's financial, petrochemical and energy sectors sanctions were "unacceptable and against international law" according to Russia.
China had blocked any possibility of the steps going before the UN Security Council for approval. China is a major buyer of Iranian oil and a key investor that has stepped in to sign energy contracts left available by departing European companies.
Iran has warned it could close the strategic Straits of Hormuz if it became the target of a military attack. The straits are the entrance to the strategic Persian Gulf waterway, a major route for the supply of oil globally.
Oil has risen for the first time in four days as the sanctions against Iran raise concerns that supplies may be disrupted. Prices have gained 7% this year after increasing 15% in 2010.
A disruption of Iranian oil supplies would lead to oil prices surging and to increased safe haven demand for gold.
For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter
NEWS
(Bloomberg) -- Gold Rebounds From One-Month Low as ETP Holdings Gain to Record
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-22/gold-rebounds-from-one-month...
(Reuters) -- Gold rebounds; Europe, U.S. debt worry weigh
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/22/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE7AK...
(MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rebound in electronic trading
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-rebound-in-electronic-trad...
(Reuters) -- Russia Says New U.S. Sanctions on Iran 'Unacceptable'
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/22/idINIndia-60659320111122
COMMENTARY
(CNBC) -- Go for Gold: Cramer Bullish on Bullion
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45390935
(ZeroHedge) -- So, Wait, Gold Is NOT Outperforming Stocks By 23% YTD?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/so-wait-gold-not-outperforming-stocks-23-y...
(KingWorldNews) -- Turk - MF Global Disaster to Create Another Lehman Crisis
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/11/21_T...
(KingWorldNews) -- Embry - Get Ready for Extreme Money Creation Globally
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/11/21_J...
(GoldSeek) -- The New Price Era of Oil and Gold
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1321895391.php
(Market Oracle) -- Euro-zone Will Print or Perish
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article31651.html
(Nine News) -- $200 Oil in 2012?
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8378120
(Press TV) -- China's Banks Use Gold as Legal Currency
http://presstv.com/detail/211132.html
»
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Bring it. I need to plan a trip to Canada to get some more!
International Christmas shopping.
while you're in canada, check out our fine selection of non-bubbled real estate!
Gold never does well in a deflationary environment.
To the gold bugs. Be careful.
If someone--like Gingrich--gets in and has the balls to support another Paul Volker, you'll lose your shirts.
The FED Window can't stay at zero forever.
Don't kill the messenger.
http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com
gold has almost always done well in inflationary environments, at least back to mid 1800s in USA. This time could be different, but read some history/data before making such claims.
>> done well in inflationary
Excrept he said deflationary.
When guaging an assets performance, especcially in a deflation, it is important to view it against its alternatives.
And as all assets suffer in a deflationary environment, he who loses the least, wins.
Gold will suffer the least and has historically outperformed other asset classes in a deflation.
What I'm not sure of is how it fairs against cash?
But who says there will be deflation?
Umm. Actually, the dollar and long term treasuries will not suffer at all.
Cash doesn't do too well if they virtually confiscate it by bringing out a new currency.
Property/shares/savings can and probably will be confiscated through 'wealth' taxes.
Physical gold & silver make a compelling case in a world run by thieves.
Here are the facts this time arround.
In a deflationary environment cash is king. Provided that cash is in a currency which is stable. Since this is not happening anytime soon, see below:
"Gold never does well in a deflationary environment."
Evidence?
Clearly the gold price was officially fixed during the Great Depression, but if you look at the closest thing people could buy at the time (Mining Stocks) they shot hundreds of percent higher.
another troll?
Either that or someone with not too much going on upstairs. In an environment where a 2% rise in Treasury yields would bankrupt the US, he thinks someone is going to do a Volker and raise rates to double digits? Yeah. That'll happen.
Gingrich what?
1. I hear that's not true, but even if it were, deflations make a currency stronger, not weaker but we are clearly in a debasement and default environment. That completely invalidates the inflation/deflation argument, sort of like arguing about the ship's course while the engine room is on fire. The course we are on is irrelevant, the USD will be destroyed before you arrive at deflation land.
2. The risk of financial responsibility taking over is zero. Gingrich isn't as much of a conservative as you seem to think. He is criticizing the Wall Street protests without one word about the Fed. You won't see any responsible actions from either party.
3. True, they can't raise interest rates, but they are saying they will stay at zero forever. What does that tell you about where we are going? Refer back to point #1.
Great stuff...+infinity
4. The nature of CDS when triggered through deflation will create hyperinflation, because the money to cover the defaults does not even "exist"..............yet.
Someone with balls in Washington?????
Get a life!!
Fed can't raise interest rates like Volcker did. The interest on the debt would explode. They are trapped.
If Ron Paul gets in and supports Jim Grant and HR 1098, sound money has a decent chance.
But then gold and silver won't be taxed and made as competing currency, legal tender they likely would go even higher.
@ Paarsons ...Just wondering why all the care and concern to warn the GoldBugs.
Are you the motherly type ?
Or a Banker.
or#3 a fucking idiot.
or#4 all of the above.
?
A re-purposed Celente forum pimp.
I guess consistent smack-downs at the open and after trading hours constitute deflation these days?
speaking of x-mass - http://hedge.ly/gFWVSm
"This most recent sell off may again be completely coincidental but the CFTC might want to keep an eye on such unusual trends in the precious metal markets in order to ensure fair and free markets and protect the interests of all investors."
Hilarious!
Oh yes *choking on my coffee*, the CFTC is wery wery interested in any wascally behavior. CFTC will investigate, wight after it finishes investigating the silver market *wink* ... Weal Soon Now ... staff shortages *cough*, you know how it is ...
Don't you worry, Mr and Mrs Investor, your money is safe and securely held. Just not by you.
I considered junking you for not finishing with
" Be vewy vewy quiet, I'm hunting manipuwators ".
Ah fuck it. Green arrows for you. It's almost Christmas.
If you give the CFTC the benefit of the doubt that they are not criminally complicit, this might be a good way to look at them..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8105U1WY9ro&feature=related
Oh.. and I said IF.
Awfully easy to ignore things when you're being paid to ignore them...
caught beetwen US debt crises, Euro debt crises, Japans debt crises, Middle east crises and Asias population crises, I would suggest it is time to buy some physical PM and hope it doesn't get irradiated.
When everybody is on the same side of the trade... Gold took on the proportions of a mania and I won't be surprised if / when the long-term channel breaks to the downside. Same for sillver (but probably worse).
When you mention everybody being on the same side of the trade, I think of all these people who believe in FRN.
Maybe...just maybe for 5 minutes a few people stuck their toe in the water with silver and it got bit off in April. No one owns silver. It may go down. But no one owns it. Obviously people on here do. But not the public.
Hehe. I remember some sad story the WSJ ran (when silver was topped out of corse). Some lady living in a trailer park said she had traded all her retirement cash for physical silver. "I've never been so sure of something in my life.".
She was early
"Hehe"? At an old woman losing 40% of her savings?
What an asshole you are.... even if her loss is temporary.
Just because the story came out during the recent top doesn't mean she purchased at the peak. She could have bought at $15, $20, $30 and still be quite fine.
Sure, if we weren't physically pinned to ZIRP by unsustainable debt, and an asteroid of derivatives as large as the moon were not speeding towards us, and all of the world's monetary and financial system wasn't chained together waiting for the weakest ship to pull all the others under, I could agree with that, sure.
Good luck brother. I didn't make 3700% compounded returns over the past 8 years lined up on the same side as the rest of the world.
If that is the case you must be getting killed shorting treasuries like I am. It is tough to wait it out but it will work out. It takes balls to take the other side of the trade. Easier to own a bond fund like the rest of the world.
Long treasuries have been the ultimate contrary trade this year. Bill Gross was even shorting them when the sky was falling in April. No sense closing a position before it finishes it's run.
For a few traders maybe it has been contrary. Bill Gross was agnostic and then maybe slightly negative for 2 days. Jim Rogers presumably got hammered. For the trillions of dollars in retirement plans, annuities and even brokerage accounts they are all massively invested in bond funds. My point is people actulally own treasuries. Nobody owns precious metals. Central Banks and Paulson.
Long term treasuries have been just about the best investment out there for years. They have always been a contrary trade (except for pension and life insurance). All these years we were told to ladder bonds to diversify interest rate risk.
I totally agree with you about it being a fantastic trade. It has been a home run. I just disagree that it has been contrarian. Everytime someone gets nervous they switch to a bond fund. Gold gets talked about a lot. No one actually owns it. It's just a fact.
Somewhere between 2 and 5% of people own gold. Hardly the "same side as the rest of the world."
It's more like 1% at most 2% but still off the 4% that it was as an investment class back just 30 years ago until the 90s when people started preferring bubbles like dotcoms then housing and now the ultimate bubble govt. debt and fiat all because "analysts" and "professionals" direct people's money there now in 401ks and pensions and annuities...people don't even think (invest) for themselves they let someone else do it for them and the managers of their assets don't go into gold because they get no kickbacks for it.
Complaining to the CFTC about the banking cartel's gold and silver manipulation is like complaining to the Mafia about extortion.
CFTC's sole purpose is to help the banking cartel rape America. And they have done a good job.
Complaining to the CFTC about the banking cartel's gold and silver manipulation is like complaining to the Mafia about extortion.
CFTC's sole purpose is to help the banking cartel rape America. And they have done a good job.
If you are a believer in gold/silver, use options expiry to increase your positions. Options Expiry=DIP!
"Believer" is the key word.
Several thousand years of monetary history, and hundreds of examples of both profligate governments and debt-loving central banksters destroying the value of their fiat currencies and the savings of their citizens, can indeed lead one to some well-founded "belief" in gold and silver. But have fun playing in the corrupt and rigged casino that is Wall Street and sovereign debt --- for as long as it continues to last.
oh please. Jon Corzine stole a billion from his customers.....and no one has put him in jail.....
we think the CTFC is going to actually do something about JPM?
My bet today is that JPM takes it down to 1649 by 1:30.......
and I will be deeply, deeply grateful for this engineered buying opportunity.
anyone even pretending that the gold price is free, fair and transparent is living in OZ.
1649 at the close. mark my words.
He is part of the Obama mafia. He will be rewarded not jailed!
Sorry, too many brown people all over the globe buying gold with real paper money given to them in buckets for their low cost goods. Figure if its good enough for the oil guys, why shouldn't producers do the same?
Of course the Gold sell off is coincidental, so were the 8 margin hikes.
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/11/22/a-jp-morganmf-global-silver-connection/
the slap down will be short lived as the prophet Benton has said as such and 8 days before the silver chalice sayeth 45 of the dollar. go forth Wynter and your Bentons for you are the light
"the CFTC might want to keep an eye on such unusual trends in the precious metal markets in order to ensure fair and free markets and protect the interests of all investors."
Count on the CFTC to keep an eye on the unusual trends in order to ensure that nonsense like free and fair markets doesn't interfere with the interests of the right investors.
Are you serious?
Again thanks for yet another great buying opportunity of physical gold-silver.
Please GoldCore, get a fucking clue. CFTC head is a member of the plunge Protection Team and has been ever since Reagan set it up. Enabling the manipulation of commodity markets is a primary mission of the CFTC.
Gensler is ex-Goldman Sachs, you fucktron.
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/11/22/china-blasts-u-s-for-ignoring-ticking-debt-bomb/
Funny article. It's like a drug dealer complaining about his client's drug habit.
If china was so concerned about us debt load, why did they enable congress' deficits by buying us treasuries?
CFTC, funny!
For those of us with the spare dollars to exchange, these "sell-offs" (Engineered Bear Raids) are opportunity as folks will actually watch those prices and give us PM's in exchange for Benny Bucks! Another opportunity to protect my families future
CFTC = Can't Find Traders' Cash.
I mean it's only $1.2bn - not the sort of large amount whose disappearance would leave a trail that could be followed - right?
No you a wrong, That is why they are still trying to tweak the definition of a SWAP (A product we have traded for years). Corizone executed a swap from customer accounts to his.
CFTC = Can't Find Thieving Criminals
CFTC: Came From the Corporations.
WTF? You expect the CFTC to do anything about a gold selloff? LMAO
The whole point of rapid and vicious selloff's is to punish specs who get long late to the party. The whole episode was probably government inspired and had the blessing of the entire CFTC staff.
This is the place that needs "more time" to find missing funds from Mf Global. They'll get that figured out in 2015. Meanwhile, shit that happens in trading will never be looked at. EVAHHHHHHHHH.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
Obama will shortly recieve an annonymous campaign contribution of $1.2 Billion!
+ 1
Now we know!
Yes they are buying opportunities..and the Asians are big time..so is the rest of the world....only the Western world where we think paper money is so important do they play the game with the paper....in the end...THEY.... will own all the hard metal..and we will have the paper...we lose..they win...but Goldman Sachs will get a big fat bonus
In the end you will have a lower standard of living so that your masters have a healthier balance of trade from which to rule, and you actually have a job in which to toil. If a few hundred million people get screwed in the process, well it's for their own good.
- Ben Bernanke
it amazes me how many people on zh run out and sell their coins at the first whiff of a take down
How "many" is that?
Answer: Not a one
I bought a shit load more :)
you yanks on a completely differant planet.. bite every time .. no sense of humour... surely the name says something??
Sell? Sell coins? What an odd concept!
"The sell off had all the hallmarks of a bear raid by concentrated leveraged longs as the news flow was extremely gold positive"
I think you meant concentrated leveraged 'shorts', not longs. Why would longs want to cause a bear raid?
And the news has NOT been extremely gold positive. For months the crowd 1 step ahead of the masses have been talking about printing to infinity, as if it were a foregone conclusion. Printing by ECB is still an option, but Germanys tough talk, especially in past week (when gold sold off $140) has been about letting things crash/deflate etc and not throwing good money after bad. Not sure if they are posturing etc but that is patently NOT 'extremely gold positive', (other than maybe to perma-gold bull that is)
THESE CROOKS AT JP MORGAN MUST BE SENT TO JAIL....THE REAL PRICE OF GOLD IN TODAY'S TERMS IS CLOSED TO $ 2,000 THE OUNCE BUT THE SUCKERS AT JP MORGAN CONTINUE PUSHING PRICES DOWN....IT'S TIME SOMEONE DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT...LET'S GET TOGETHER AND SHORT THE STOCK, BUNKRUPT THE BANK AND CLOSE ITS DOORS ONCE AND FOR ALL...WHERE IS OCCUPY WALL STREET
All logical indicators, political instability, excessive soverign risk, real default possibilities would normally be indicative of a price rise. Yet the prices go down, and not just down a little, but really down. Do you really think there is a chance someone could be manipulating the price? Really?
I thought everyone knew it was a rigged market going in.
chart of gold drop on options expiration from Jesse's cafe
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-k70PX_K8q8I/TsrB4jgcGII/AAAAAAAATEs/FAXSo9mHlRc/s1600/golddaily26.PNGMy Dad and I bought a Boatlaod of USO and SLV....I cannot see oil falling much and the upside is very positive.
Any other thoughts?
USO tracks oil terribly - try to find another play.
And SLV is outright corrupt, if money is qualified (IRA) try PSLV and if non-qual, buy physical silver.
O yeah -- righto -- use that "extra money" you don't need and buy PSLV so that you can pay an extra 20% premium.
And why is Sprott selling all his shares?????
http://seekingalpha.com/article/295093-sprott-insiders-are-selling-pslv-...
So you are saying dont pay the premium and stick with SLV?
Offer a solution tuff guy!
The market put a 20% premium on PSLV, not sprott. So what is your point? Sprott sold at a 20% premium so he could buy back at no premium. Are you such a bad trader that it angers you when people make obvious winning trades.
I thought it would be common knowledge on a board like this now that Sprott sold those shares and took advantage of the premium at the time to buy mining shares.
It's also a valid question whether to take the qualified (IRA) and convert it to physical. Taxes are unlikely to go down. Paying the 10% penalty in order to convert to physical might seem like a bargain sometime in the near future. The USD is going down no matter who takes the reigns. The debt is too large, and the system is too broken.
There's also a political risk that the government borrows some of that money to make ends meet (a la Argentina) before the eventual crack up, or at least bars the door and prevents withdrawals. The real question is whether to wait until after the first of the year or withdraw it now.
You might lose your shirt if you're in paper.
it always drops on options expiration....that's nothing compared to the pattern of dropping between 8:30 AM and 10:30AM everyday
Why aren't treasuries breaking down on news like this?
reading this quote: "
"This most recent sell off may again be completely coincidental but the CFTC might want to keep an eye on such unusual trends in the precious metal markets in order to ensure fair and free markets and protect the interests of all investors."
I fell off my chair laughing!!!
Bart's neatly combed hair and deep, even tan are obviously a priority... Things can get crazy collecting payola and surfing porn.
A little OT:
Fraser Institute Mining Survey
http://www.fraserinstitute.org/uploadedFiles/fraser-ca/Content/research-news/research/publications/mining-survey-2010-2011.pdf
Alberta gets the top rank, because of the tar sands open-pit.
chart that proves Crimex slams gold everyday
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/speck062802.html
I'm gold bullish, and have purchased additional on dips, but the bulk of my purchasing was done in '07, '08. Gold should be a prudent portion of anyone's portfolio. Market manipulation does make purchasing decisions dicey, and there are arguements for both deflation and/or inflation. But, history indicates that physical gold will always have some value, where fiat currencies tend to come and go.
A friend tracks this, and it's relevant to this discussion;
"Here are the main figures of the open calls for the Dec contract ending on the 22nd November... I can't see that da boyz would be willing to take a hit on 9,876 contracts @ $1,700 when we're so close to ducking under it.
$1,400 = 11,347 contracts
$1,450 = 4,271 contracts
$1,500 = 12,452 contracts
$1,550 = 4,291 contracts
$1,600 = 11,489 contracts
$1,650 = 7,642 contracts
$1,700 = 9,876 contracts
$1,750 = 7,258 contracts
$1,800 = 11,705 contracts
$1,850 = 11,753 contracts
$1,900 = 8,998 contracts
$1,950 = 8,267 contracts
$2,000 = 20,668 contracts"
Nice. Prudence dictates that a couple wads of cash should be held in addition to gold.
All wads are relative: you decide what each wad is.
WTSHTF, do TPTB simply let gold rule the day?
Does the dollar fall off a cliff? If so, how long until a new currency is implimented?
Gold/Silver (Olivia Newton John style) = the best store of wealth based on ongoing events. (longer term. It will be a base for whatever new currency is developed, global or otherwise. It can also be outlawed, or falsely valued by TPTB)
Cash=indespensible for trade in the near term, post-SHTF... Becomes a good hedge in a deflationary environment.
Sprott files to buy $1.5 billion in silver for PSLV in Nov.
http://sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00030203
Nov 11 Preliminary short form prospectus - English
That is actually several hundred million dollars more than it would take to clean out all the registered silver at the COMEX.
Hey Blythe and Jamie, how do you like them apples?
Will Hunting Had It Right 14 Years Ago. An oldie but goodie........
One of my favortie movie scenes ever.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8rQNdBmPek&sns=em
Eric Sprott is a heroic individual!
Latest big round of gold price manipulation started imo
when the swiss franc was pegged to the euro(wich
should have been extremly bullish for gold price)
and will last untill Benny boy starts printing again
big time.Next wave up will be a big one from
all the pressure building up.
Same bullshit goldbubble is bursting bla,bla talk and
wich looked big then but is now just a blib on the screen.
Gold is no I.O.U,but being fully payed.
So the deflationary outcome,with all it's debt defaults
should benifit gold as well;physical gold has no
counterparty risk.
Gold will rest again when gouvernments stops overspending
and the coruption in our financial,corparate,political
and legal system are halted.
Utopia?????
Till then I rather preserve my hard earned wealth
in cold,hard cash being gold and silver.
One is fine. C/P'ing a pitch in every thread is over the top.
Want to demonstrate your prowess? Join the conversation. Otherwise, read and learn.
All positive news yet there is this options expiry that causes the drop.
Once again the manipulators "Banker" thieves get away with another crime.
Smash downs are frustrating in that the bastards get away with these under hand antics scot free.
But ultimately they are predictable opportunities to keep accumulating more physical.
One of these fine days it WILL blow up in their faces and the CFTC will just look incompetent and foolish for not acting long ago.
I don't think you understand, these boys killed my dog.
" Gold falls prior to Options expiry expiry"
Well whod'a thunk..
Fucking CFTC members need hung by the neck untill dead.
When do gold options expire? What is the primary source for this info?
http://www.heritagewestfutures.com/downloads/futures-options-calendar.pdf
http://www.heritagewestfutures.com/downloads/futures-options-calendar.pdf
http://gold.goldprice.org/2011/02/gold-and-silver-options-expiry.html
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_product_calendar_options.html
Future "Capital Flight Controls" and "Wealth Taxes" have to be topmost in the mind of anyone with assets these days, no matter where they live.
Even to partially honor all of their decades of entitlement promises the corrupt pols will have to steal just about everything from everybody who has anything left to steal.
Pms are the last redoubt.
And is there any doubt now after the last four years that they will do these things?
Merry Christmas!
Here's your early gift! A pullback!