Gold Gives Ground As Europe/Germany Decides Its Future

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by GoldCore

Gold Gives Ground As Europe/Germany Decides Its Future

Gold is lower again in U.S. dollars and is trading at USD 1,778.19, EUR 1,288.45, GBP 1,125.01, JPY 136,422.70, AUD 1,838.65 and CHF 1,554.01  per ounce. 

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,778, EUR 1,288.67, and GBP 1,126.24 per ounce. 

Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,806.00, EUR 1,310.03, and GBP 1,143.18 per ounce. 

The markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief as the major global players, with the exception of the Chinese, are now sitting at the same table determined to forge a path through this political and economic malaise. Gold is trending lower as the risk trade is reduced. It is a relief that the U.S. administration has dispatched their boy wonder, Messrs Geithner, to Europe, whether he can calm nerves and create a political consensus is the question.

The European Project is at a fork in the road, do they bind themselves together politically and fiscally and socialise the burden where rich pick up the tab for poor or do they withdraw into their domestic political worlds and turn their backs on what is arguably the greatest economic union in the history of the world. 

The nexus of the issue is the same as it has always been, can you have an economic union without political union. The answer would seem to be..... maybe, as long as nothing too serious happens, but the moment the economic cycle shifts down a gear, domestic populations suffering from economic contraction will go tribal and look after their own first.

A thought provoking paper by the UBS economist, Paul Donovan, articulated the choices facing Europe in a paper "How to break up a monetary union" written in February 2010. His central thesis is that in its current form the Euro just does not work, especially a one size fits all interest rate policy. 

Here are some excerpts from his excellent report.

The euro stays.
We do not believe that European Monetary Union will break up. The costs of breaking up the Euro, at this stage, far exceed the benefits. Far better, in our view, to default within the Euro than to incur the political, economic and possibly social costs of trying to survive outside. 

Monetary unions do break up.
Notwithstanding the fact that we think the Euro survives intact, it is relatively clear that (in economic terms) the Euro does not work. That is to say, parts of the Euro area would have been better off (economically) if they had never joined. This is not an argument for departing, but it raises questions about the factors that make monetary unions economically successful, and what happens when those factors are absent.

That the Euro area is not an optimal currency area is generally agreed upon. 
The European economies are sufficiently diverse that external shocks hit different economies with differing degrees of severity. The asymmetrical nature of any shock is also likely to persist for longer. This is something that has been well understood for some time.

Indeed, fourteen years ago UBS economists concluded that “a monetary union extending beyond the core six [European] economies would not work properly in economic terms.”
The analysis identified those economies that could realistically be called an optimal currency area, those economies that could satisfy the Maastricht criteria (on a relatively liberal interpretation), and those economies for which there was a strong political will in favour of monetary union. The analysis suggested that Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal failed to meet real economic or financial criteria. Ireland and Finland were felt to meet the financial and political criteria, but also failed to meet the real economic test. 

Germans should pay for Greek pensions.

The concept of fiscal transfers across different regions within a monetary union normally suggests a degree of political union, though this does not have to be the case. What it does suggest, at least for now, is that popular complaints in Germany (and elsewhere) about paying for social security in other parts of the Euro area appear misguided. Monetary unions entail sense of economic community. This means that wealthier areas should, indeed must subsidise those parts of the monetary union that are at an economic disadvantage. Fiscal transfers are the price that has to be paid for a monetary union of any meaningful size.

The most optimistic scenario for the Euro probably lies in some kind of parallel to the experiences of the U.S. in the 1930s. Then, a fragmented banking system, with powerful regional central banks, failed to deal properly with an asymmetric shock to the economy (and to the financial system). The problem fostered significant regional differences in economic performance. This motivated financial reform, and a greater fiscal transfer mechanism to turn a sub-optimal currency area into a sub-optimal currency area with the mechanisms to smooth the consequences of shocks.

Writing in the Financial Times in December 2001, then EU Commission President Prodi declared, “I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created”. This may not be the crisis, but it has probably brought Europe closer to the point where institutional reform is required. For any monetary unions to survive, the costs must not persistently outweigh the benefits.“  Report Ends.

The answer will undoubtedly be more debt and then leveraged debt, structured in such a way that the immediate relief will be given to credit starved economies. It would seem that the German leadership is too politically weak to "sell" the German public such deal, as it would mean that they would have to trust their less well behaved European brethren to abide by the rules and perhaps pay their fair share of tax in the future. Trust is in short supply. An international front is now required to sell the deal, thus the American presence, Messrs Geithner.

Before making up their minds the German people would do well to take on board George Soros's wise words in his recent opinion piece as published by Nation of Change

The euro exists, and the global financial system’s assets and liabilities are so intermingled on the basis of the common currency that its collapse would cause a meltdown beyond the capacity of the German authorities – or any other – to contain. The longer it takes for the German public to realize this cold fact, the higher the price that they, and the rest of the world, will have to pay.

Mark O'Byrne is away this week and next preparing for the LBMA Montreal conference, Stephen Flood authored this report in his absence.

For the latest news and commentary please follow us on Twitter.

Silver is trading at $40.03/oz, €28.99/oz and £25.31/oz. 

Platinum is trading at $1,803.50/oz, palladium at $734/oz and rhodium at $1,750/oz. 

Gold heads for biggest weekly drop since early 2009

Gold Slumps on Signs European Cash Infusion May Ease Debt Crisis

(Gulf News)
Gold may reach $2,000 this year as investors flee stock markets

(Nation of Change)
Thinking the Unthinkable in Europe


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madgstrader's picture
UPDATE 1-China sets national gold standard - Xinhua

* Sets national gold standard at 99.999 pct purity
  * New standard conforms to international requirements
  * Move expected to accelerate opening up of gold trading



MFL8240's picture

They are the only country who understands this confetti poarty will end in pain.

tonyw's picture
DE GAULLE predicted the US monetary crisis in 1965
Smiddywesson's picture

Oh no, China's not the only country that gets it, otherwise we would not be throwing fiat around like we don't have to pay.  The Fed and the ECB get it, and they know that "money" is just paper.  No amount of fiat is too much to kick the can and buy up physical gold, and that's exactly what the Fed/ECB plan is doing.  China just doesn't appreciate being shouldered aside from its place as the winner under the old system.  That's why China is trying to stick its finger in the eye of the Fed.   They are not at all happy.

No amount of fiat wasted, or lives ruined, is too high a cost for the Fed and ECB to pull this off.  They are ruthless.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Anyone who thinks China has the amount they report is either naive or not ready for their new Lords, probably both.

Smiddywesson's picture

That applies to our gold reserves and the gold reserves in Europe too.  Nobody is showing their cards.

The actions of the Fed and the ECB are what are allowing China to purchase enormous amounts of gold by kicking the can and suppressing gold prices.  If you think they are doing that to help out China because they are all friends, and that they would willingly go into the night and let China take over the international cartel, then I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.

We are buying, they are buying, everyone is buying.

Mr Kurtz's picture

I've seen the future, brother and it is murder.

DirtMerchant's picture

man, that is some creepy shit

Manthong's picture

Amazing what a boatload of heroin will do to the thought process.

Amazing I still have a number of his LP's.

PY-129-20's picture
we are leaving the others
we're going away
Today we all steal
possession is lost
Let them sleep who do not know
the final day is here
the very last
and we leave at dawn
There is no force no money and no power
To stop us now and change our fate

MFL8240's picture

Was impressed by the media sheep yesterday and the perfect timing of the situation in Europe as the US released macro news with higher unemployment, inflation, forclosures, misery index and lower reatail sales. The obama media worked their magic again for their comrade, so telling of who we have become as a country.

Robslob's picture

99.999 Purity...guess it is time to switch from Eagles and buy Maples...damnit

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"guess it is time to switch from Eagles and buy Maples...damnit"

No real reason to do that. As long as the content is known, and in the case of the Eagle, it is well known, and clearly stipulated.

The China announcement is probably due to the truth or rumor that they received some gold with tungsten imbedded in the bars... This happened, or supposedly happened, some time ago.

Maybe they received some more 'gold' with phony purity stamps?

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

destroying confidence in PM's so our paper dollars don't look quite so bad has been the game..seems many are not buying that line anymore.. gold?

LoneStarHog's picture

Hey, GoldCore, you goddamn MORONS...if your BULLSHIT thesis is correct...then WHY do both gold and silver not only have the EXACT SAME CHARTS, but the plunges are at THE SAME DAMN TIME EVERY DAMN DAY?...This is nothing but goddamn GOVERNMENT & FED stick this daily CRAP up your WORTHLESS ASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MFL8240's picture

Why so angry.  take a look at the size of the silver market, it is very easy to manipulate while Gold is universal and owed by central banks, Silver is not owed by central banks.  It will catch up.  Dont be so angry, its the end of the week and life could be worse.

LoneStarHog's picture

I know all this DUMBSHIT...READ GoldCore's THESIS and READ my reply and see if you can COMPREHEND something!

Mr Kurtz's picture

Ouch! Definitely a green arrow although it will be kinda hard to move the cursor after I gouge my eyes out.

DirtMerchant's picture

What? We're all getting a little BuFu every single day, why not set it to some appropriate music?

Mr Kurtz's picture

Can't fault your reasoning on that one. But it's a helluva way to start one's morning.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Goldcore wrote this including "Germans should pay for Greek pensions"?


Smiddywesson's picture

"Germans should pay for Greek pensions"?

Goldcore apparently sees some moral obligation on the part of the German people who have worked hard and paid their taxes to insure the pensions of people who have not.  Goldcore's reasoning is that since the Euro exists, it is the moral obligation of the stronger nations to help out the weaker nations.  Was it the German people who created the Euro, or the banksters who foisted it upon them?  Were the German people a party to the doctored financial information which let Greece into the EU?

No.  This moral argument is itself immoral.  There is no moral argument to impoverish the Germans for the misdeeds of the banksters, the Greek government, or the Greek people.  To stick them with the bill is wrong.  For them to allow their government to stick their children with the bill is also wrong.

German's should pay?  Sorry Goldcore, that little assertion doesn't pass the laugh test. 

Bicycle Repairman's picture

The Mediterraneans have a completely different culture.  They do not have a "tax-paying disposition".  They will drag Germany down to their level.  United Europe will not work (for the producers).  It may take a while, but: epic fail.

Joy on Maui's picture

Makes you wonder if Timmah G ghostwrites for Goldcore, doesn't it?

These bozo reasonings are as repugnant as the whole anti-muslim argument.

Many of them hate us for occupying their countries and messing with their economies/exploiting their resources, and can we blame them?  Would we not do the same if in their shoes?

The germans are protesting for absolutely understandable reasons.  Yet the US seems to suggest it has the market cornered on morality.  Unbelievable.

1835jackson's picture

Everyone knows ze Germans dont want to pay for their lazy neighbours. But tough shit. There is a New World Order giving out orders here so shut your mouths Germans and pay for other countries mistakes!

pelican's picture

Oh no, I hear goose steps in the distance.

ZeroPoint's picture

The markets are irrational to think this will acoomplish anything.


The Greek debt will never be paid back. They don't have the revenues to cover it. Giving them a bigger loan to cover the first is the very definition of insanity.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

The "market" now knows that Europe will cover it, or at least try.

Smiddywesson's picture

The Greek debt will never be paid back. They don't have the revenues to cover it. Giving them a bigger loan to cover the first is the very definition of insanity.

Unless the system is unsavable, then any amount spent to buy time is irrelevant.  Now what are central banks buying as they kick the can, hmmm? 

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Never mind the current debt.  Greece will continue its "non-economic" ways and be a continual drain.

chubbar's picture

So the takeaway for me is this. A monetary union erected across several countries with disparate economies WILL cause such serious problems in an economic downturn that all nations would have to discard soveriegnty in order to survive. Gee, what a fucking surprise position from the NWO types. They couldn't have figured this out PRIOR to the union? Anyone think the various populations would have voted for this union had they been informed of this "fact"?

 I think the PTB will make sure that pain is maximized unless their demands are met, there is no getting around that. However, better to pay now than indenture all future generations.


wang's picture
wang (not verified) Sep 16, 2011 7:02 AM

WTF "George Soros's wise words"


from the above article

Before making up their minds the German people would do well to take on board George Soros's wise words in his recent opinion piece as published by Nation of Change.


Mark O'Byrne is away this week and next preparing for the LBMA Montreal conference, Stephen Flood authored this report in his absence.

dpr10's picture

this report, as good as it may be, is scared shitless of euro breakup...but it is right, germany will be back to deutsce marks soon..the others who cares::))

New American Revolution's picture

The author of this article doesn't know jack shit about what happened in America in the 1930's, other than the drivel he's read from the proper books published by the 'unprincipled men of monied interests'.   What a load of garbage.   Further, anyone who thinks the German people are going to sit still and watch their government pay for Greek pensions is not just smoking pot, but a mixture of PCP, Crack, and Hopeium.   This dude is BRAIN DAMAGED.   I recommend he get a job in an open air industry, like cruising timber or something.

DavosSherman's picture

Well said New American.  The effing moron should change his companies name also.

Smiddywesson's picture

Default fixes everything.  The only people completely petrified by default are the banksters, hence they spread fear.  TARP is a perfect example.  Sign this multi billion dollar bill (which gives Hank criminal immunity) or we are all dead.  What a crock.  Germany should withdraw from the EU, but the NWO crowd is pulling out all the stops to prevent it.

Smiddywesson's picture

Default fixes everything.  The only people completely petrified by default are the banksters, hence they spread fear.  TARP is a perfect example.  Sign this multi billion dollar bill (which gives Hank criminal immunity) or we are all dead.  What a crock.  Germany should withdraw from the EU, but the NWO crowd is pulling out all the stops to prevent it.

lukzy's picture

I am always wodering why no one looks at the best sample regarding monetary union - Yugoslavia. It is just perfect for these days. Same currency in 6 republics with completely different stages of developement. All together highly in debt.

What happened after the breakup every body know.

GeneMarchbanks's picture


The Chinese have. In fact, their entire study in the former republic has been in order to accomplish a similar outcome except now the target(s) are continents not nations. Same shit larger scale...


DavosSherman's picture

Well that read got a one.


GoldClueless came to mind.

These people who think the EUR is safe, that the banks are going to make it.  They sound like the ECB, Fed, EFSF and the IMF all have money.

They don't.

And when they create it gold speaks.

Gold is in the 1700's because group think that wants to believe the best during the worst possible time.

One idiot on a gold site said to go to cash because massive deflation was coming.  Massive deflation>>>>massive revenue cuts>>>>government defaults OR prints OR revalues all +++ for gold.

Smiddywesson's picture

Yes, deflation causes chaos too, which is good for gold.  I don't buy the argument about gold prices going down in the 30s because there was deflation.  Gold was made illegal to hold and the whole economy was subject to price manipulation.  Deflation will lead everyone to crowd into the same lifeboat, which is good for gold because there are too many fiat dollars in the world for that lifeboat. 

I disagree that paper gold prices can't go down because paper prices don't always reflect the reality of our situation.  However, if they do crash, the price of physical will ramp to the sky.  FOFOA makes a pretty good argument for this decoupling of physical and paper prices.  I reread it and I think it comes down to a situation where everyone will crowd into something they think is safe (paper gold) thereby elevating paper prices, and suddenly discover they are not safe at all and crowd out, thereby crashing the paper gold price.  How long physical gold holders have to endure the pain of crashing paper prices is open to question.  I would say not very long.  The decoupling of physical and paper will be on everyone's lips during this crisis, because you won't be able to find any physical for sale, so I'm not very concerned what paper does at this point.  All paper is likely to blow up at the same time.

Deflation = good for gold

Inflation = good for gold

Crashing paper gold prices = good for gold

Magic unicorn stick save by happy fairies saving an unsavable economic system = bad for gold

Badabing's picture

It seems that when the SNB pegged the frank to the Euro the game has changed for now. Like the first bailout at first the situation appeared to be under control. What we are witnessing is international QE or IQE. Now that the Swiss currency has joined the band wagon the IQE can commence but like all paper ponzi  schemes  IQE will fail because expansion of the money supply will be reflected in the price of gold in time. Just like before only on a larger scale. Get your hands on the barbarous relic and wait. If any one has been reading the works of Another he says that when we see swings in the price of gold of $50 daily the end is nigh.   

SWRichmond's picture

The lesson: crisis provides the best vehicle to get people to subvert their own interests to some nebulus greater good, and in so doing cement in place the very same status quo oligarchy that caused the crisis.  For the Germans, the motivator is guilt guilt guilt.  Without the productive north, the EU would have no one to leech from.  When the blood is all sucked out, then it's war.  Para Bellum.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Right to the point.

"subvert their own interests to some nebulus greater good"

I'm so tired of this kind of thinking.

msmith's picture

EURUSD has dropped back through some short term support levels.  Analysis here

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

the death star has been fully operational my poor jedi.

we talk as if the NWO does not NOW exist..when evidence is right there in front of us ..Nations acting in their own interest LOL America off shoring jobs by the millions, open borders, UN orders attack on Libya or some such  idiocy spoken by OBuma,Germans paying for EU, hell the EU itself and our international banking system..

The NWO is operational my little Jedi.

Fred C Dobbs's picture

Listen to George Soros?  

Who wrote this?