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Is Gold Hinting At Imminent Coordinated Global Intervention?
While it is still early in the overnight session, initial indications are for a full spectrum Risk Off market. In fact, S&P 500 futures (ES) have not fallen this fast over a two- or three-day period since the third week of November last year. As many may remember - a few days of drops like this took ES from 1260 to 1136 in a week but more importantly was followed very quickly by a massive and coordinated Central Bank intervention that ripped ES over 6% higher in an overnight session - sparking the entire rally of the last six months as it appeared the central bank put strike had been dragged higher. Admittedly the two-day fall so far (while the largest in almost six months) is still small in context, it would appear the world is waking up to the true event risks of a debt-saturated fiat system going through its death throes. Back of the envelope would suggest we need to drop to 1285 or so on the S&P before the same kind of hit-the-big-red-central-bank-panic-button kind of move comes into play. Sure enough, Gold is only very modestly lower (-$3 at $1640) so far in the face of a rip higher in USD and broad liquidation everywhere else - perhaps the patience of sound money will be paid off once again.
ES fell with a similar velocity in mid November (red rectangle) - soon after (green oval) the central banks of the world went crazy...
and sure enough - while the world is selling off pretty hard this evening, gold is - well - not...
Of course with Treasuries yet to open - perhaps Gold is the only safe place (especially with AAPL having collapsed in on itself in recent days).
Charts: Bloomberg
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ES will be green by 9:29 AM.
WTF more can all the CBs in the world do to help besides open yet more swap lines?
I'd be careful. This could all go straight into a major liquidation trade with USD and UST bids. Europe is so boned. The ECB and Fed go nuclear and send oil back over 100...put it this way cancel your travel plans to Europe. The place will burn
hmmm
Possible discount rates on French chateaux
Could be worse places for a holiday...
French chateaux with owners facing 75% tax rates =>> more expensive wine from France for the next foreseeable future.
I was thinking you might just find them abandoned. ;)
I'm sure wine sellers have "boating accidents" too. Even easier: the "oops-I-dropped-that-case-of-wine-and-it-broke" accident.
I'm surprised gold isn't up big.
Up nicely in EUR.
Imagine you're French and Hollande wants to seize your wealth.
Hoarding gold in a wool sock was how the French peasantry hunkered down under John Law's reign of error in 1720.
Bernanke and Draghi are modern-day John Laws, though far less sophisticated than the original bubbleteer, thanks to the stupefying effect of 'higher education.'
A good point. If any storming of the gates occur it will be at the ECB. If that insane Mario starts buying all of Europe...he (ECB) will literally become a federal ruler. The Europeans will kill the ECB if oil goes bid against the EUR
But, Mario lost that idiot Sarkozy as a backer and soon-to-be in trouble Merkel (she should be very worried what just happened in Holland) - so the ECB 'political' influence is dissipating rapidly, that and the Bundesbank wants to close them down.
Total mess.
First faith in a fraud must be destroyed...it has.
Then the credibility backing the fraud...its waning.
Then the reality of what is called real money sinks in to all.
For me, its a marathon, not a sprint. I just sit back and enjoy the ride ;-)
For me, its a marathon, not a sprint.
+1 Plus you inspired recollection of some lyrics:
You can do a lot in a lifetime
If you don't burn out too fast
You can make the most of the distance
First you need endurance
First you've got to last.
(Marathon, N. Peart)
It is a rush when one can combine their goals, time, distance and humanity into one concept.
One that has always guided mine (lyrically, contemplatively)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcG47CpsU6c
It's moving quickly now to the final equation: who has the biggest GUN?
Very bullish!
Interesting T. D. I am looking for a washout bottom in the metals sometime this year, maybe August? Perhaps in the form of a flash crash? We still have over $1,500,000,000,000,000.00 in derivatives that must be unwound. Who knows? Holding physical metals the timing is not that important to me. I know my purchasing power will be retained. To all you paper pushers, stay away from heat sources!:)
Inspector Gadget algo-go-rythm to the rescue!
http://www.youtube.com/jazzfest
hiy it now
The Banks can steal your Money anytime they want to
http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2012_05_06_archive.html
.
The Government Is God-Deal With It
(same link)
I dont think this full spectrum risk off is gonna last more than a week before it is risk on with the rumored shock and awe of a central bank offensive. This is a tough market to trade cuz down is up and bad is good until it isnt
On Friday, silver rallied late to close the week shy of $30.50, which considering the near-term price action was optimistic. The cartel did not have much success pushing the metal below $30 except for the thin trading of the early session Thursday of last week. Silver is modestly lower this Sunday currently trading at $30.11
Commercial hedgers have lightened up massively on their silver short position, similar to their position of September 2011...
http://silvervigilante.com
ITS OFFICIAL US ECONOMY WILL ENTER A DOUBLE DIP RECESSION ON THE 15TH OF JUNE THIS YEAR....
Gee, thanks, Ted!
I take it you're an NBER insider, and this is an offically sanctioned leak?
Pretty cool that ZH gets the scoop from the WSJ. Movin' up!
Blue horseshoe likes June 15th DD. Pass it on.
Chesapeake BlueCrab likes pioneer aviation. Pass it on...
Bacon likes Grits and Eggs. Keep it on the DL.
Anit-austerity governments and it's implication for future money printing in the Eurozone.
http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/
Alf Fields, King World News + More!
Interesting Hussman post just up. Here are the first two paragraphs:
"In recent weeks, I've noted that our estimate of the prospective market return/risk profile has shifted to the most negative 1% of instances we've observed in the historical data. Most of the time, a given set of market conditions is associated with some mix of positive and negative outcomes, so we focus on the average of those outcomes in the expectation that doing so will produce good results over the complete market cycle even if we are incorrect in specific instances. With regard to current conditions, there is an absence of redeeming instances where things worked out well, coupled with an abundance of starkly negative market outcomes that have accompanied similar conditions. This uniformity of bad outcomes is why I keep using the word "warning" lately. The market's prospective return/risk tradeoff here is highly unbalanced toward the risk side.
This isn't just a matter of advisory bullishness being high in one week or another, or even valuations being rich, or just economic risks appearing high. Rather, what concerns us most is thesyndrome of evidence: the fact that we observe so many red flags at the same time - rich valuations, overbullish sentiment, heavy institutional saturation in "risk-on" trades, near-panic levels of insider selling, a burst of new stock issuance, overbought conditions (focusing on intermediate-term horizons), a two-tiered market that couples speculation in a handful of momentum stocks with broadly deteriorating market internals, a variety of historically hostile syndromes (see An Angry Army of Aunt Minnies), and increasing likelihood of oncoming recession."
best guess, gold retests 1500 area. DXY probably beginning big upleg. aussie dollar, loonie, real, kiwi all starting to cave in. euro last of the mohicans, but may wind up at parity with the dollar before this is over. debt is deflationary, relative to commodities and other currencies the dollar will probably gain. capital is trying to exit china, russia as fast as possible-destination US. russian billionaires are buying apartments in manhattan for 20-30 million. they probably own some gold, but they'd rather own a room with of view of central park.
It's awesome how every single person on here sees gold going down from here. Either a little, or a lot. But the direction is down. Maybe everyone will be wrong.
everyone except everyone on this website
I am referring to the 87 posts above. Maybe they are all long term bulls but I see a lot of people who think a pullback is a foregone conclusion.
i think sentiment is mildly bearish on gold, certainly not at the bullish levels when it was around 1900. being neither long or short at this point i'd rather be out than in. if it rallys it rallys if it falls it falls. i really don't have a bias. if an extreme develops at either end, then i'd go the other way. may not happen for months. don't really care about the dollar either, but to me there's far more negative sentiment on the dollar, so i'd rather be long than short. i don't see anyone calling for a big rally, but that will change if it goes up
Probably a lot depends if we crash here and margin calls start coming....gold could be sold. We shall see. Japan sure isn't looking good tonight. The big downwave could ripple across the world markets tonight and smack into our market in the morning.
Maybe everyone will be wrong.
***********
I am leaning that way too at the moment-
Gold and gold stocks have been kicked around for a long time now-bearish sentiment near record levels-i wouldn't be shocked if gold surprises everyone and links up in a true flight to safety in a real deflation trade that triggers a short squeeze-
USD/TBT/Gold and Gold stocks all up with the markets down--
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2012/04/HGNSI.gif
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2012/04/HUI-weekly.jpg
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2012/04/HUIdailyann.jpg
Bullish on 5.56, .308, 30 06, 7.62 x 39, 7.62 x 54, 8mm Mauser, .45acp, .357 Magnum, 7.62 x 25. Big up side in them there metals.
Elliott wave count on spot gold remains bearish.
http://bullandbearmash.com/index/gold/daily/
The Aussie wave is more useful at least it gets rid of the flies.
Tell me again what the Elliot wave does?
You don´t know if Gold up or down if you do not look at the move onnon monetary commodities, specialty agri, they are joined at hip.
Omaha does a 180 on Sunday. Berkshire shareholders go long gold... with Warren as counterparty. As far as Marie Antoinette is concerned, the new meme is "Let them play bridge."
Photos included: http://tradewithdave.com/?p=10216
From a link on your site, wanted to share here:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/fsr/fs_paper13.pdf
Found a lot worth reading in that report, thanks Dave. Bookmarked your site.
Bretton Woods 2?
So the position Gold and Silver are in.
1) Markets drop GOLD rises
2) Markets rise GOld drops.
3) More US stimulus in the form of some QE comes. Gold rises everyday.
I like owning an asset that will rise 2 out of 3 outcomes going forward.
Ok lose opponent....must not lose to fear Daniel-son!
Paper gold says nothing worth knowing. When paper gold finally adjusts to the phsyical reality of fiat collapse, it will be an overnight event. You will wake up and gold will be over 5k and ounce, on its way to 20k.
can't wait
Probalby a lot depends if we crash here and margin calls start coming....gold could be sold. We shall see
One can hope, cant one?.
Fall bitchezz..........
I want in on the Mother of all BTFD's!!
Money will continue to flow into US based assets, mostly from Europe but the BRIC countries. This will allow Big Bad Benny to take a break as equities will continue to rise for at least a few weeks. The problem is that the dollar is picking up steam as well, how much of this will be allowed before Ben ahs to step in and start dumping dollars? He may have to use QE the next time just to help manage the dollar. Without any intervention the Eur will reach parity by the end of the summer or sooner depending on the acceleration of collapse or reorganization. Also, the likelhood of the ECB doing more and the FED doing less (at least publicly) is high with growth representing the soon to be new paradigm of the EZ - thanks to the elections in Greece and France.
I've been short the Eur via DRR for a couple weeks with very little change (down about 1.5%), I've also shorted the EZ via EPV which has shown modest gains in that same timeframe. The best short positions over the past several weeks for me have been STD and BBVA (largest Spanish banks) which I'm looking to step out of as early as this week - this have both in my favor by roughly 20% over a slightly longer timeframe. That said, any/all of the European bond markets with the exception of Germany can be shorted with a high degree of confidence - especally now! I though there might be a bump in hope after the elections created by the shiftaway from austerity and towards growth - we all know markets love growth.
At this point any positive momentum derived from the elections will be extremely short lived and has to happen quickly before reality sets in, maybe a productive meeting between Hollande and Merkel would generate such momentum, they certainly realize how important it is to reconcile Hollande into the EU's framework quickly before he says (and does) dumb things. It will be interesting to see where and how this meeting will take place - Brussels or Berlin or Paris? I think that's actually significant. In any case, the EZ assimilating Hollande has got to be a top priority for Van Rompoy, Draghi and the rest of the technocrats.
Being from America and hearing a Presidental candidate say they and their party represent change is real red flag for me, it's the obligatory statement that carries zero credibility because Obummer destroyed it with his: Change You Can Believe In...what a bunch of shit that and everything else he said turned out to be.
Back on topic. Gold is very likely to touch 1500 while Silver is likely to hit 27 in the near term, I think just based on the flight to safety flow into the USD that PMs will continue to trend down to these levels without any real support. Support will kick in at those levels but depending on where the geopolitical situation is they won't likely stay there very long. I expect that for some period (after this short term move) both the dollar and PMs will rise together, for me this indicates that we are close to the end of the strengthening dollar. I expect the coupling to occur sometime around Sep-Oct and continue until after the election, at that point there will be a severe decoupling that leads to a massive move in PMs.
By the end of the year PMs will be at time highs, this will be the final leg of the bull market and the most substantative in terms of growth. I guess at that point it becomes a question of when to sell, my metric is simple - when one oz of Gold equals one share of the Dow. Right now that ratio is about 8 to 1 so we still have a lot to the upside while the Dow has a lot on the downside.
BTW, Stacking should be an Olympic sport!
I'm sowing my legs part with 1/10 oz eagles.
As I get to the bottom of my pants leg, I gradually sow in 1/4, then 1/2 and at the bottom part i sow in 1 oz eagles.
This gives a nice bell bottom effect like from the 70's and is also bullish.
Don't sew any in the ass seam, it gives the dreaded "droopy joo ass" look.
AKA 'sportin a load'
GOLD AND SILVER ARE RISK ASSETS NOW. BY LOGIC, THEY CAN'T BE SAFE HAVENS SINCE FUND MANAGERS LIQUIDATE "WINNERS" TO PAY FOR MARGIN CALLS.
You don't have to scream it. I've been thinking the same thing, short term, but long term I think they'll still act as a store of wealth (gold). But for now, yeah, they definitely are acting like risk assets, subject to that type of volatility.
Short term only.
Only of concern for a trader, not a stacker.
shiny shiny shiny's moment to shine
"Dead Money Society"....Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Charter Member
21st century America == Nazi Germany for whites.
Flee while you can, and take all the AU you can with you when you go.
There exists a deep rooted anti semitism in the US among all parts of the population and all economical classes. I realized this appx 10 years ago. Its not in the open and not so easy to realize for a foreigner like me but its there for sure. The only reason why its not more openly popular is the fact, that
a) the media do hold this theme down and try to make the public believe that this phenomen does not exist in the US at a mattering scale.
b) the people are not open outspoken antisemitic because they fear the bad influence such a position could have on their career. Its official government policy to be in best terms with Israel and therefore the people do not show their real face except. But as I have noticed already many years ago, once this theme comes along during a casual gathering, its the usual practice to " test" the thoughts of the others by throwing in a harmless antisemitic short joke and then wait for the reaction. Once they have recognized where the others stands things can become quick quite nasty.
I realized that this is really deep rooted in the US population. One day something really perverse shot to my mind. " I got the impression, that somehow the Jews now living in America have one advantage compared to the Jews living in Germany before Hitler came to power. The advantage is, that the world knows and the now living Jews have already the experience that everything is possible when racisim and hate and political madness are in power. Maybe only this knowledge prevents the ordinary Jews in the US that one day another catastrophy happens. This was appx ten years ago. To that time my thoughts were maybe to dark and not attached to the reality.
But nowadays something is brewing in the US. Again the Jews are the scapegoats for all evils. They are banksters, financial live blood suckers. crooked attorneys, shadow power brokers in all important fields, they are puling the US into al this wars, etc, etc. Now even they are about to set the whole world on fire, threatening to attack IRan ( in their subconscious mind people have even the impression that Israel may use nuclear bombs to attack Iran). The nuclear bombs Israel controlls do spread fear all over the world because people get the impression, that these nukes can be used against any country in the world. Everything is possible when religious fanatics are at work. The difference in the mind of many people is the fact, that Israel does have the bombs already while Iran not yet. But both countries are under control from religious fanatics.
When things go really wrong and the US is loosing its economical world dominance in a not so faer away future, thus resulting in poverty and riots in the US, then its clear as glass whose fault it is.
The society is not willing to stand the fact, that the whole US under the guidance of the elected goverments has brought the US to this sad results. And it is also clear, that the non jewish white elite is happy about this stupidity and will point their fingers also to this easy to distinguish group. Its always the same nothing has changed. The only thing I'm asking myself, how comes, that nobody is learning anything from history whether the Jews nor their surrounding neighbours and countrymen.
The only explanation is mankind is to stupid. Not even people with an over average IQ and with the best education possible and with far reaching influence are clever enough to break this never ending cycle of idioticy.
I have never read such stupidity in all my days.
The sheople are so brainwashed by holocaust movies lol and a steady stream of laimstream propaganda, that they are essentially no longer Christian full stop. They repeatedly vote for Israel-first traitors for every political position in this country, all our wealth is sent over to that precious country, and not only that but the said sheep also send their sons overseas to get physically blown to Hell in wars of aggression at Israels pleasure.
The nonsense I am reading on this site is basically "off the chart"
I have never read such stupidity in all my days.
Dont worry be happy !
GOLD TIME CYCLE
http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/
There is one reason and one reason only to buy gold, to take it out of the fascist Anglo empire and set up a life for yourself elsewhere.
Digging deeper into your hole here in the fascist states of America is an exercise in futility.
S&P 500 timing system returns 289.81% over the past five years.
http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/
In an Affidavit of Obligation signed and witnessed in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Tuesday 17th April 2012, and in Plovdiv, Bulgaria, on Thursday 26th April 2012, the following allegations were filed:
The total amount of gold currently under contract to the US Federal Reserve is 2.42 billion kilograms.
Lease payments owed on this gold from 1961 to 2012 now total 4.64 billion kilograms of pure gold.
Proof of the Federal Reserve Obligation is in the form of Federal Reserve Bonds (the 1928 series and the 1934 series) held at the Bank of Japan.
http://is.gd/3Bm2aQ
Gold cannot hint at anything. Remember, you told us the gold market is manipulated
Whatever - just read the damn book...
How did I get here? Must be having a senior moment.
The reference is to Farenheight 451; somewhere earlier in this thread.
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