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Gold Liquidations Open Thread
Update: Yep - it was a leak of a margin hike as just confirmed. Which may very well mean nobody actually had to liquidate, just the herd thundered, as it always does, in the wrong diraction. Expect gold to actually rise on this news.
Everyone knew they were coming... Just not when. Now that the gold liquidation frenzy has struck we still don't know much if anything: who was it, why, and where did the money go? Some rumors have it as a bank in Central, Eastern Europe unwinding massive PM positions, which if true is paradoxically bullish for gold and silver as reported previously, as it means the already tight liquidity situation in Europe is about to come to a head, possibly as soon as this weekend. Others speculate it was a plain vanilla satisfaction of collateral requirements by a big funds who may or may not be liquidating and who have sizable gold positions. Or, the simplest explanation, was it simply an expectation (and leak) of a gold margin hike? For all these questions and more, as well as to vent over anything and everything, use the following open thread.
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Yes, I checked on rounds and bars. It is better this way. thanks.
Yes, I checked on rounds and bars. It is better this way. thanks.
I fully believe that gold is the long term answer (when it all comes crumbling down), but can someone explain to me every time there is ANY news why ZH always says, "great time to buy"?
End game is coming, but kind of foolish to buy at $1600 if it drops to $500. You can never "time it right", but that doesn't mean you buy extremely high, watch it drop, and then wait months or years for a huge rebound. Am I missing something or has there ever been an article that didn't worship gold?
Not a hater, but the constant worship of the shiny stuff is a little over the top.
I'm fairly new here, so feel free to link me to the contrary.
Since this is an open thread regarding gold, expect gold bugs to be out in full force. Same thing happened when silver hit $50 and tanked after margin calls, everyone rushing to get back in. The bottom line is that to be ahead of the game, get in early, before everyone else, then sell when you start seeing big jumps in that particular asset. Don't expect to buy at the bottom or sell at the top, but be satisfied with a profit. All these rules apply to precious metals - they run in cycles, too. If I had kept my silver from the $13 level from 1982, it would have taken over 25 years to recoup the loss, let alone the opportunity cost. These doom and gloomers believe that we are at the end game but nobody knows for certain IF or WHEN it will happen.
Makes sense. Good to see someone say something other than "buy and hold forever".
Can anyone else link me to an article where Tyler says it isn't a good time to buy since inception of ZH? (Again, not against the end game strategy, you just have to live for today AND plan for tomorrow.)
Weekend Report http://thethoughtfultrader.blogspot.com/
Excerpt from The ABCs of Gold Investing
by Michael J. Kosares
Since the early 1960s, central bank have attempted, with very little success, to impose their will on the gold market. In most instances, that imposition was directed toward keeping the price in check either by selling the metal outright, as was the case in the 1960s and 1970s, or through a combination of sales and leases, as began in the late 1980s. As such, this demonstrates the quantifiably inverse relationship between official sector sales and leases and the gold price. When the intervention(for lack of a better word) is in progress, the price is restrained. When the intervention is abandoned, the price begins rising more quickly than it would under normal crcumstances because of built up pressure.
This explains the spikes that characterize and dominate the gold charts. Had the official sector not been a seller/lender, price increases would have been gradual and less dramatic, the product of the normal interrelationship between buyers and sellers in a free market. Quite possibly, the the run-ups that did occur, particularly the two spikes in the 1970s, would have been more subdued and stretched over a longer period of time.
In the 1960s through the London Gold Pool (with the US as the primary contributor), and again in the mid 1970s through the IMF and US Treasury sales, the US made massive interventions in the gold market to keep the price from reflecting dollar weakness. The London Gold Pool was formed in 1961, first to address an attack on the dollar that took the price to $40. In 196, the Pool was again called to respond to the massive demand for gold associated with the Cuban Missle Crisis. By the late 1960s, with the US government mandated price still at $35 per ounce, the London Gold Pool was abolished, but not until thousands of tonnes of gold left the central bank coffers for the private sector. US gold reserves were reduced from 20k tonnes in the 1950s to 9k tonnes by 1970.
Shortly thereafter, in 1971, the US was forced to suspend convertibility and devalue the dollar. Floating exchange rates were introduced. Gold immediately began to rise, hitting $200 in 1974- nearly a sixfold increase over the $35 benchmark, and the first of the spikes mentioned at the top of the section. Again in the mid 1970s, the US, this time with the help of the IMF, entered the gold market as sellers with over 500 tonnes expended from the US Treasury and nearly 800 tonnes from IMF coffers in the form of direct sales, and an equal amount as returned quotas to various members. Gold was driven back to the $100 level. That plan ran its course by 1978, and once the intervention was lifted, gold resumed its uptrend, culminating in the record $875 price by 1980. Understandably, the better portion of gold returned to IMF members became a part of national reserves and didn't again see the light of day until the late 1980s and the advent of aggressive gold leasing programs and controlled sales.
In those early instances of intervention in the gold market, the primary interest of interventionalists was to hold down gold so that US policies with respect to the dollar would not become suspect. Dollar inflation was bubbling just beneath the surface. Monetary and government officials acted to keep the price of gold down so that the dollar would not come under further attack. Once the intervention was abandoned, gold found its natural price level. These strategems conducted by the central banks, usually with the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the lead, never kept gold from eventually achieving its desired level vis a vis the dollar. They were simply delaying actions just prior to a full retreat. Essentially, the war was lost before it was even fought.
In the 1990s, the central banks, knowingly or not, were engaged in another protracted battle in the war against gold, only this time through leasing as well as selling programs. Over the course of the 1990s the central banks but nearly 7k tonnes of gold on the market. According to GFMS statistics this involved roughly 4,650 tonnes in the form of sales abd 2,300 tonnes in the form of leases. Through the 1990s, the net efect has been to keep the price of gold under $400 per ounceand for part of the decade under $300 per ounce. WIth the advent of the Central Bank Gold Agreement in 1999, this most recent intervention has been contravened and regulated.
Gold, in 1999, immediately reacted to the agreement by spiking higher. Prior to the agreement, gold was trading at $260; after September 1999, it broke through $300 and topped out at $339. After a consolidation period and a return to the $260 level, gold began a steady climb that stalled at $400. With the supply of gold throttled in 2000, all that matters depends on developments on the other side of the fundamentals' ledger: gold demand.
Just a random anecdote, I went to my local coin store to exchange some of my gold for silver(I had swapped out a lot of my silver for gold back in April/May). He told me someone had just cleared him out of 100% of his silver bullion. Including almost all of his 90% coinage. A silver and gold coin shop and he had ZERO silver bullion to sell/trade. Told me the guy who cleaned him out was still looking for more, too.
Ebay buyers/sellers are still working off of last weeks data. I'll pass. From what the dealer told me he could sell silver eagles for $40 each today if he had any(about a 35% premium). Wow!
Interesting times, indeed.
Sorry about that
;)
Interesting. When Hunt bros cornered silver market, people where turning in their silverware,jewelry, etc for cash. Now, higher prices just create more demand to buy. Realization of imminent collapse or mania?
The Pawn Shop that has the TV show (I am not sure of the name) said in an interview that gold/silver sales are by far and away higher than ever. It just so happens that demand is higher than ever as well. They described it this way: The sellers come in first thing, and by lunch, all of the product is gone. They say they have never seen this before.
The market is in full capitulation. Obviously you think it is going to end the way of mania. You are right, but not for another ten years, when the price of gold is more than you could imagine and one ounce of silver will pay the mortgage of a mansion.
Soros is famously quoted as saying that "Gold is the ultimate bubble." The definition of ultimate can mean largest, but it van also mean final. I think what Soros was saying is that gold will be the final bubble, after the debt bubble. Once again, after the debt bubble.
Are we getting to the MOST COMMENTED post ever world record seen.
Gold has its own life. No market value, just pride and domination. Who can estimate it.
Our predictions. bottoming 1400 with strong quick rebound.
That's all folks
No TD, margin hike didn't cause this. Maybe contributed to it, but didn't cause it.
What caused it is (a) mad scramble for USDs (and "safe" treasuries), and (b) no more QE to keep the stock market pumped up. It's a classic risk-off move. Get out of risky stuff, get into safe stuff.
Stocks weren't risky as long as QE kept pushing them higher. QE stops, people fear a massivel correction taking stocks back down to their real P/E range, which isn't very good in this weakening economy.
No more QE simply means things return to their real-world level, just what we're seeing. Real world for the Dow is around 6k - 7k. Real world for gold is around $1000 / oz. It's that low only because USD is WRC. If if wasn't WRC, $3 - $4k / oz would be more in line, and if (when) USD loses WRC status, gold will shoot up to that level.
Meanwhile physical PMs are flying off the shelves. Get some while you can.
You didn't get it. The teleprompter commands:
BUY currencies and CRASH the market, so that the premises for another round of stimulus are set! This is what almost ALL heads of the sockpuppet hydra are saying in consensus (just as "some time ago").
NOTHING HAS CHANGED, except of that paper markets prices priced in something that they were not supposed to price in - and now comes the great unwind by force, to ensure that the paper market will tank, and currencies rise, so that the plan can proceed as originally decided (which by the way is the ONLY way how another round of stimulus can be pushed though).
Bottom line: Suck bernankes dick and beg, so that QE666 can happen.
Gadaffi last stand to buy protection so sell the gold, cant run with it!
http://exiledbear.wordpress.com/2011/09/23/i-think-theres-something-fishy-about-spot-gold-price-discovery/
And the last Ebay trade tonite - $1877.76
There's something fishy about the price discovery in spot gold.
www.silverrevolucion.com
Huge week for PM sellers this week I read selling "hand over fist."
I read the perth Mint is already sold out of the 2012 dragons, 1 oz....anyone confirm this? They are sure perty. Several of my (wealthy) relatives bought them. Sweet for them::))
I am just a simple engineer, but even I knew waiting a few more days would make the buying better.
Enjoy the opportunity to buy.
There's enough gold in Fort Knox to supress the price of gold for 30 years. Meanwhile the banksters can load up on the metal for their personal vaults at reasonable prices.
I have enough "gold" in my closet to suppress the price for a thousand years!
As long as no one demands delivery of physical..
Meanwhile I'll load up on the metal at reasonable prices.
Well said !!!
This entire financial system is broke
$ 1000 trillion WMD's sitting at Fraud Street which can destroy the entire planet
FED+ECB+BOE+BOJ+WH+IMF+WB etc. etc. put together can't solve this problem
They have the capacity to postpone little further but not indefinitely
David advices only one thing and World will listen to David = Go back to stone age and re-start please
Thank you
David
This is the 3rd margin increase in a row. it's funny to watch these guys squirm trying to keep the price of gold down. every dip is a chance to get in on the ride! $2500 gold is my short-term target.
http://youtu.be/6d9WbjEmfQY - Interview by James Turk in regard to the Pacific Asian Gold Exchange in China which is just opening and will be fully open within a short period, providing an end to the Central Banks ability to and their giant derivative wheeling bullion banks in NY and London from performing these kind of text book GATA aware raids to paint the charts.
In my opinion the proximity of the Two day Fed meeting, the G20 pronouncements and this major CME margine hike (one of a series that have singled out gold and silver over the last year) shows that this margine hike was known in advance and that the take down in gold, lead by silver (golds most efficient price lever due to tight correlation and relatively small market cap) is a sure sign that this was an all out raid by the the central banks, which are the same group offering dollar loan lines to the EU banks, with manipulative operations being implemented by the CB friends at the massive bullion and derivaties financial amalgamations. It is a clear sign of DESPERATION and I believe that it is likely part of the deal by the Fed, UK, Swiss and Japanese banks with the major EU banks that will be receiving US Dollar loans early next month to basically black mail them into selling their gold.
This had the secondary benefit to the largest concentrated short holder of silver futures and the custodian for the largest silver ETF to exit large underwater short positions below silver $36 and make big profits if my guess is correct.
Those searching for real market access to physical gold based exchanges outside the manipulative US and UK Precious metals exchange will be happy to know that the Pan American Metals Exchange is in the process of opening and while the mainstream financial press has virtually ZERO Coverage on this, it is highly significant and bullish for Gold and Silver going forward as it will begin to put a stop to the ability of the Western Monetary authorities to use the exchange margin call system to achieve their desire to use gold to manage perceptions about dollar strength and interest rates. This criminal manipulation has one upside and that is that the weak longs are finally completely out and with PAGE coming online gold and silver will demonstrate their role as real money despite every machination of an insolvent and dying global financial system based on graft, manipulation and chart painting and its attempt to change the perception that the dollar and euro are backed by nothign but unrepayable debt by making bonds and the dollar seem strong relative to gold. There is an excellen interview by Jame Turk with and Ned Naylor Leland which you can google to view on Youtube, that outlines the details of PAGE and its implications going forward as it rolls out over the next few weeks. That there is no enforcement on what is far too close a proximity between margin hike announcement and the giant sell off is a clear indication of the degree of rot and corruption in the market system in my opinion and also a clear sign that end of empire levels of desperation are at work, compounded by the increasingly and massively risky derivatives markets. My guess is we bounce of $1590 and there will be a steady climb in gold towards $2,000 as silver is now clearly in backwardization as we move into the most bullish quarter for physical demand in precious metals, the 4th quarter. Wednesday morning or sooner this should commence in my opinion. ~ Duffminster
675 Comments - you ZH Bitchezz take your PMs SERIOUSLY!
and you don't?
Good buying opportunity for gold. As the dollar rises, a new 1.5t spending package lurks. Once passed, dollar debasement begins.. so does the new bubble for gold.
I've pretty much read all the comments. And I've done my comparison shopping. What ticks me off is they are charging low end buyers more. So if you are rich you get a better deal.
So, where is my big subsidy in all this? The guv'mint bails out banksters for 23 trillion and all I get is, at best, $35.00 an ounce silver, which I have to pay out my pocket, AND carry the risk 100%. No special deals for me. No government programs to subsidize a sale of silver for me.
Then you have people like Geithner, on the government dole, who with his buddies are there ONLY to support and protect the dynastic families that are behind all this criminal banking scam.
assholes.
Soon Wal Mart will be selling dollar shorts
One of my contracts, is as a consultant to a gold-mining group on environmental issues. One of the things that I learned from that, is that it costs the largest and most efficient mines approximately $250 per ounce to produce it.
When the cost of producing gold is only a small fraction of its market value, and when central banks hold many tons of it, there is no longer any material difference between it and a fiat currency, for its value is just as completely under their control.
For this reason, gold as a hedge against fiat currencies, has become an absurdity.
I see two possible outcomes: One is that the bubble will fully deflate and the other is that the central banks and governments will restrict production and control and maintain its value in order to use it as the new global reserve currency. I think that the first is more likely but, as the outcome will be determined by political decisions, what will happen remains relatively unpredictable. So, I will step aside, for the while, and watch developments.
There is not an endless supply of gold in the ground for $250/ounce. That's absurd. Mines are reporting a cost 3 and 4 times that! Not only has the cost been rising, but they have been missing their estimates by wider and wider margins.
As the world demands more gold the cost will go WAY UP.
If all the gold we wanted was actually available at $250/ounce then we'd all have done nothing but gold mine for the past 30 years.
There is not an endless supply of gold in the ground for $250/ounce. That's absurd. Mines are reporting a cost 3 and 4 times that! Not only has the cost been rising, but they have been missing their estimates by wider and wider margins.
As the world demands more gold the cost will go WAY UP.
If all the gold we wanted was actually available at $250/ounce then we'd all have done nothing but gold mine for the past 30 years.
There is not an endless supply of gold in the ground for $250/ounce. That's absurd. Mines are reporting a cost 3 and 4 times that! Not only has the cost been rising, but they have been missing their estimates by wider and wider margins.
As the world demands more gold the cost will go WAY UP.
If all the gold we wanted was actually available at $250/ounce then we'd all have done nothing but gold mine for the past 30 years.
Yes. As the price goes up, less efficient mines become cost-effective and come on line. High demand is what's driving the price, fear of the dollar's value falling. --- I recall Zbigniew Brzezinski's speech to the finance committee, 2 or 3 years ago, in which he said that the US Dollar had to be replaced as the global reserve currency and in order to do that, its value had to come down. That is what appears to be happening over that longer time period. However, the prices of gold and equities became unrealistic and are now correcting downwards.
Still, I have had two contracts this year to fight new regulations that aim at closing down small gold miners in WA and CA. --- So, I see Government trying to restrict the supply, that is, I see them, doing their part towards controlling the price.
"Government trying to restrict supply, that is, doing their part towards controlling the price."
So gov't wants the price to go UP? Hard to believe.
But invisible paper silver is in infinite supply, just ask the CorruptFuturesTradingControlers.
In fact I think the banking cartel has more invisible silver than the entire physical real silver ever in existence upon the earth, and they intend to sell 'all' of it.
Common China, buy a billion dollars of JPM's silver, then stand for delivery. Watch silver go to $1,000 oz or JPM implode into another dimension where the anti-bernankes live.
Silver and gold are still miles above recent prices and that has been in a repressive corrupt environment.
The only things in a bubble are corrupt bankers, politicians and regulators. The level of systemic corruption in the US is astonishing. No wonder you have 45 million on food stamps. I think that is a bubble that might burst in spectaculor fashion.
Mathman is that you?
Why the heck don't my mining stocks go up then? It's really bizarre. ABX was $39 when gold was $700. Now it's $50. Should have been a doubling in profits time ten for price earnings multiple = 20X stock price. Beats me but I give up on miners.
I'm just about to get back into miners. Can't decide which ones, though.
What does it cost to produce a $2500 Macbook Pro?
So... Monday purchase. 2 Oz of gold, or 100 oz of silver?
Always buy gold before silver. Central banks aren't buying silver.
gold
-deleted-
Gold is not in a bubble.
TREASURIES are the bubble.
A lot of poor bond holders are going to be in a world of hurt when this cluster-fuck created by the Fed explodes.
Again, wihen the Fed has to raise interest rates...it will be ugly. So many people fooled by the illusion of safety in government debt.
The Fed has made long dated TYs ....unsafe and in a way is going to infuse the banks with a nice windfall on all the 30s they are holding. Nice back-door TARP and we all know they will benefit most from the price action.
Good luck paper bugs. At least you could have nice shiny paper certificates that provide negative real yield and worthless principal on maturity.
I am so excited! The more I think about the situation the more it just sounds better and better to me. Why the aggressive move on the metals? Why 25%? That's a hell of a lot for something to drop in price in such a short amount of time. It was fucking attacked. And why do people attack? Because they want to dominate the other party? But why dominate? You try to dominate that which you fear, like realizing you don't have control over life. Realizing someday you will die. No, we try to dominate that which we fear.
Maybe it's this Dead Guy Ale I keep slugging back tonight while the wife is out of town but I am fired up. I am buying (if they are still selling) more Ag tomorrow and that's a fact. Oh no, it might crash! Oh no, for the love of God. Fuck! Bring me $4.00 silver and I will buy a thousand ounces. FUCK! Endgame. Period. It just has to play out in time. But make no mistake, Mr. Ferguson speaks the fucking god honest truth. He sees it. And now I see it. Watch the metal fly off the shelves over the weekend. Oh, you killed the price on a Friday? Oh, you gave me a FULL two days to ponder over whether to buy and how much. NOT what am I going to sell.
This is old fashion price fixing. YOU WILL NOT SELL YOUR COMMODITY FOR ANYMORE THAN X AMOUNT. It's ILLEGAL to sell your product for more than x amount. We won't allow the product to sell for more than 50/ounce. Oooopppss. It's price fixing people. And how does the other side react during a price fix? They don't sell their product, in fact, they get rid of it. They take it out of circulation. THEY MAKE IT SCARCE!
SO fuck you JPM, fuck you HBSC. I'll just take my fucking product off the market. AS well as a few million of my friends. Corner this bitch.
Fuckin' A RIGHT!
Fuck!
This market is long overdue for a final physical short squeeze. I just hope enough people have the balls to make it happen.
Comex futures contract buyers are about as ball less as they come. I am sure they are told in very clear terms that they trade paper, and if they even think of taking delivery their paper will become what it truely is, worthless paper. So they always settle in cash.
Funny how even Eric Sprott does not buy physical from the Comex. I'm sure he does not want to lose his money. Smart Man.
utter bullshit
I hope there are prosicutions for this obvious takedown
isn't it now obvious that these lawsuits against JP are for real
obvious to anyone that this was manipulation
Itsd the only palce to prserve wealth and they take that away
truth is there are ZERO safe havens unles you are an insider and know what the fed is goin g to do unyet people still belive we live in a free market
we live in a global fascist state and have doen since the fderal reserve was created
people will realize though soon enough that GOLD is the only place to be. papaer will go to itas true value, of zero tangibles like PMs will never go to zero
only a fool would seel Pms to go to the PIG dollar
Recapitulate my ASS! I will NEVER sell, and continue to buy for as long as the cold green pieces of paper in my wallet can still buy anything.
Fucking asshats!
Q: What is the equivalent of, say, TIME Magazine (or whoever) running a front page feature declaring, say, equity prices are heading into a new era of everlasting prosperity?
A: AUGUST 29TH 2011: CNBC: "The Gold Rush, our special three-day series on gold, begins tomorrow (Tuesday). It's not about the price of gold, but on the gold industry."
Be right and sit tight.
Stay strong people.
The important thing to keep in mind is that gold and silver are now the inverse of fiat currencies. If they sell off, it's only because fiat currencies are becoming temporarily more valuable.
You can't lose purchasing power in the metals in this environment! Interest rates have not gone up. Debts have not been written off. The banks continue to print. Volatility and loss of confidence are the rule.
Nothing has changed. Keep on buying the dips.
This past weeks’ historic drop in the price of gold represents a free markets’ strong vote of confidence that global banks are solvent, that there will be a swift resolution to European sovereign debt default risks, a promising bipartisan agreement arising from U.S. Deficit Reduction Supercommittee deliberations, and that the era of bailouts, stimulus packages, and quantitative easing is behind us. Peace in the Middle East is imminent. The intractable problems of kleptocracy and wage slavery have been solved. Human creativity has been unleashed and will lead to unprecedented innovation and powerful, exponential economic expansion in the very near future…or not.
Damn dude. I swear Obama was speaking in my head as I read this.
Not
gold was not a bubble
I did not knoiw amnyone who had it
but I knew plnenty of people buying houses and tech stocks
case closed
What I understand is that no one knows or understands what happened on the gold market this week. And that, in time of trouble, gold is like the euro.
Reality bites & dissention is going to be a bitch.
Yip, found it!
Pic of a dollar short: http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRyct0IWqk6G0_X61luvkPLd60LAciek...
I bought 3 non graded $20 Double Eagles and 2 non graded St. Guadens today at usd 1719 each at my local coin store. I think I will go back Saturday afternoon and buy more.
read mish this morn and have to agree more at work than just margin hikes here...but nothing should stop physical buyers taking a bargain.. just hope i can find some powder to keep buying
read mish this morn and have to agree more at work than just margin hikes here...but nothing should stop physical buyers taking a bargain.. just hope i can find some powder to keep buying... fat finger sorry
just as i sat here thinkin.. i figured that gold/silver as store of value is as such because we need it to be and there are no better candidates , using fiat in it's place will forever invite corruption, and the corrupt need fiat to perpetuate the ponzi which is now well on the way to greed inspired meltdown..PM's as store of value is inevitable as necessity is the mother of invention..so BTFD AS THEY SAY
and enjoy watching the last warped convulsions of an expiring failed economic system
Can't say you weren't given ample warning:
Matthew 6:19-21 (KJV)
Lay not up for yourselves treasures upon earth, where moth and rust doth corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal:
But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal:
For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.
Gold doesn't rust.
But it can be stolen. The point is, in what do you put your faith - the temporal or the eternal?
Last time gold was at $1,650 was August 1. At that time, WTI was $96/bbl and Brent was $116/Bbl. As of Friday, 9/23, WTI was $80 and Brent $104. So despite how many - 3, 4? - margin hikes on gold since then, it still has 16% more buying power against WTI and 10% more against Brent here in troughland.
Spring is coiled for the next up leg. It's the CBs who are really worried here, folks.
Manipulation in the markets is obvious, manipulation in other news is also becoming quite obvious: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:SIs7wcNkHVQJ:www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/09/22/who-won-debate/+fox+news+google+debate+poll&cd=6&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
Even though this still appears on their links in articles, the page is gone...well, almost.
I really don't understand this thread. sure it may be true, but if you just chart gld we were at teh top of a long term trend line, where it had a corr4ection before. I'd like to see it touch the base of the lower trend line again before a buy. now it should go up on the "NEWS" AS WELL but if you chart the weekly descending channel we were at the bottom of that. Yeah, it could drop through this channel, but the hft controlled algo work really hard to prevent that from happeniing. manipulate everything until you can take every trading penny after all we no longer have capitil markets but rigged crap.
it also kid of folloows udn
Not that conspiracies are always at play, but if one wanted to do QE3, the first thing you would need to do is to show that there is really no inflation....how better to do that than tank the PM's?
...and the second thing to do would be to crash the market to create a panic in the populace.
Just expecting that QE3 is far closer at hand than anyone presently believes.
You might also wish to ask yourself, just who was buying the crashing PM's and the PM mining stocks last week? Might it be the same folks who engineered the fall?
Well, it’s clear that quite a sturdy herd of gold holders is here. Yes, and beyond the herding, the comments show examples of overconfidence bias, the endowment effect, and even down-with-the-ship syndrome. If you already know about these biases, skip this comment.
The rest of you should really read up on behavioral finance if you already haven’t. There are plenty of good reads available (Barry Riholtz has a good list of these at his blog, http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
Just a few comments, questions, and points for the more open minded here on overconfidence bias.
The # of absolutely confident predictions found in comments here is staggering, and the confidence bias is even more pronounced in the PM comments. Does anyone know that published research has found that when people believe that their predictions of market moves will be correct 90% of the time, they are actually wrong half of the time? And when people believe they are 99% likely to be right about a prediction, they’re still wrong 30% of the time. (Tversky & Kahneman. 1974. “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics & Biases.”)
How many of you here making predictions consider yourself to be above average in making accurate predictions of market moves? Judging by the confidence asserted here, I’d guess far more than half. That, in spite of the replies from your fellow ZHers pointing out your past predictions which were wrong. Why is it that others here seem to keep better records of your predictions than you do?
Why wouldn’t you want to learn how your own mind can fool you? Do yourself a favor and do some due diligence on how your mind works with respect to overconfidence. You’ll learn how to challenge your strongly held beliefs by hearing and digesting the other side. Remember the times you’ve been wrong. Keep on making predictions here, but keep notes and track the results. You may be amazed at the results. Here’s an exercise that’s worked for me. Before you pull the trigger on a market move you’re sure about, project your best estimate of the worst possible outcome for you, then double it. Again, keep notes on these and revisit them after the projections become reality. You may be surprised at what happens, and you might just improve your results.
And that’s just an introduction to overconfidence bias. There is much more to overconfidence, and there are many more cognitive biases applicable to trading/investing. The behavioral finance literature is available and accessible.
BTW, I’m not selling anything. I don’t have my own newsletter or blog. I just hate seeing people making the same mistakes over and over again without realizing it or learning from them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CA5Lp9-ntbk
"Expect gold to actually rise on this news."
Bullseye, guys.
'Sell the rumor. Buy the news.'
Will Gold, Lord of the Periodic Table, continue its growth to the sky? Or are thieves on Wall Street and other locations around the world setting the biggest Bull Trap in the history of Mankind?
Like everybody else, you're going to have grab a couple of beers, a bag of sour cream and onion potato chips, and sink back into the La-Z-Boy to find out.
Oh, and when TD tells you to get the fuck out, get the fuck out.
whatever, this market is all about obama losing to ricky or shelly or jonny or who ever it is the end of the staus quo if they do.
The only paper I own is the stuff I wipe my ass with. Market paper is worthless, because I cannot do a good job of wiping my ass with it. Gold was worth $28.00 an ounce when I was a kid. Silver was worth whatever was printed on the coin you spent. Any one think those days are coming back? All of the lying bum fucking aristocracy of the Age Of Paper Power can burn in their paper suits soonest. I won't even bother pissing on them to put out the flames. I collect gold, silver, lead, copper, real dry powder, food, tools, diesel fuel, and other useful commodities. There is a community of folks all doing the same, so skill sets and extra eyes and hands can guard each others sixes, and "break on through to the other side, break on through to the other side, YEAH "