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Gold Matches USD Weakness As Silver Jumps

Tyler Durden's picture


Equity and credit markets traded in a narrow range with late day ebullience (as VIX collapsed but we note implied correlation did not) pushing them to marginally new multi-month highs and tights respectively. The markets tracked one another very closely as did HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) but into the close HYG sold off quite notably (relative to the day's action). Financials staged a late-day advance (responsible largely for the move in the index along with Energy names) as average trade size picked up right at the end suggesting covering at the end. The relatively calm in equity, credit, and FX markets (especially post Europe's close) was not at all evident in the commodity markets where Silver jumped dramatically (up over 8% on the week) while Gold gently pushed higher (+1.7% matching USD's weakness on the week). Oil was the week's biggest loser (down 0.5%) as Copper clung to 3% gains on the week. Treasuries ended the week at their high yields (30Y +19bps) with the curve considerably steeper (and 2s10s30s up nicely) which supported risk assets broadly as opposed to oil's weakness (and stability in FX carry pairs) which did not.

Commodity divergence was the theme today as Silver took off and oil did not. Ever get the feeling that as much as they try to pressure one market down or up, that liquidity squirts out somewhere...

FX markets ended with the EUR 2% higher vs USD on the week, JPY unchanged and SEK a notable winner up 3%. AUD rallied today vs USD back in line with USD overall weakness on the week.

but equity and credit markets stayed in very close proxiomity as risk was clearly on. Stability in the last day or so (amid rising average trade size) may suggest we are topping but any good news on the Greek PSI deal (no matter how totally spun it is) will probably lead to a pop given perceptions of downside risk here (and we note that the continuous ES is very clsoe to seeing the 50DMA cross above the 200DMA which is sure to garner much attention once it does). The late-day jump in financials and dump in vol may reflect mostly options run offs but its tough to fight this tape - even though the number of canaries in this coalmine continue to rise.


Charts: Bloomberg


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Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:38 | 2082453 falak pema
falak pema's picture

they say the historical ratio from Alexander the Great to Napoleon's times was 1 kg of Gold = 12-15 Kg of silver.

Now it more like 55! So silver, hi ho away !


Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:42 | 2082471 Pete15
Pete15's picture

Gold & Silver you fuckers!!!!

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:46 | 2082481 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Ok MDB.... no need to lurk.  Come out and play.

Looks like Clive Maund shit the bed on this one.  Nice call Clive.... are we still headed for $22?


Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:53 | 2082507 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

A Turdite called "reachwest" makes these daily. He does a nice job.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:20 | 2082587 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I can confirm... I am somewhere over Texas (gawd i love in-flight wifi) and I just saw silver fly by...anyone for golf in Dallas Sunday? I just left Wisconsin with one though...warm.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:21 | 2082594 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Silver is a dangerous market that has absorbed countless naive and trusting lemmings. People should know better than to trust a bunch of conspiracy theorists, right-wing extremists and other fringe lunatics to give them sound investment advice. 

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:22 | 2082600 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Trav wants everyone to sell their physical silver and buy paper.  So just do the opposite of that.

Thanks for the fine advice, MDB.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:34 | 2082781 akak
akak's picture

"Million(Zimbabwe)DollarAnus" is more like it.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 05:31 | 2083728 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Aww come on, he's not so bad.  Like most of us here, we've only got about a 100% gain in two years, hardly anything to write home about.  I was hoping for some real gains.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:46 | 2082941 trav7777
trav7777's picture

paper went up today didn't it?

Your great "prediction" of decoupling will fall flat on its face like all the rest

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:56 | 2082955 akak
akak's picture

It would be amusing, and fitting, if you would get married to that AnonymousAsshole poster, and then the both of you could collectively blame all the world's ills on "nigger-loving silver-pumping US Citizenism".

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:41 | 2083085 trav7777
trav7777's picture

we'd be too busy laughing at you to spend any quality time'd never work out

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:01 | 2083144 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Trav doesn't have the capacity for any form of intimate relationship.  That's why he's alone and bitter.  :((((((((

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 23:25 | 2083280 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

You guys sound like a buch of old hens.

Meanwhile, Gold Down, Silver up.... Gold Down, Silver Up...



Sat, 01/21/2012 - 13:33 | 2084276 new game
new game's picture


interesting perspective

adds to the lure;

and, just maybe, that is how simple the attraction is...

fish fall for shiny objects too.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:25 | 2082608 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

MDB in the immortal words of mulder "trust no one" - wink/nod

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:29 | 2082617 Silver Pullet
Silver Pullet's picture

It just WOULD have to jump 5% the day before I go to buy another 50ozs. Oh, well...

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:43 | 2082648 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Did the bears teach you nothing... Ignore the fucking fiat.

Boo hoo...I had to pay a buck more to buy it an now it's only trading at 400...

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:55 | 2082681 Silver Pullet
Silver Pullet's picture

The bears taught me that it's not uncommon to shit one's pants.

You are exactly right. I'm not complaining. It's still on sale. I was just pointing out to MDB that I'm a naive lemming.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:03 | 2082702 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Hey Bogus million Bucks. I sold the farm and jumped in at $16.00 only a couple of years ago. I read this same BS then too. Thanks for the advice.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:26 | 2082755 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture


That was the first time that one of your posts finally struck a nerve and made me LOL...

I gave you a green arrow for it... Congrats!

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:25 | 2082893 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

"People should know better than to trust a bunch of conspiracy theorists, right-wing extremists and other fringe lunatics to give them sound investment advice. "

Exactly! That's why I never buy anything recommended on CNNBCBS-FAUX, et al. Boy, the crazy, lunatic crap those folks peddle is incredible.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:56 | 2083128 s2man
s2man's picture

Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.  Oh, I can't stop laughing.  Thanks MDB

I tried to imitate you yesterday, but I just couldn't do it. Kudos on the Street speak.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 10:31 | 2083965 Babushka
Babushka's picture

I shell confess I still don't get it. My logic is:

1) Money is a medium of exchange.

2)Money is how your work is being payed.

3) Wouldn't be a logical to exchange the money (result of your work) for the things you might need or want, I mean now ...?

Your logic:

1)Buy a gold for already debased currency (meaning expencieve) instead of whatever stuff avalible now which is underpriced (if I get it right) due to currency manipulation.

2)Wait untill SHTF.... and prices jump up to ze MOON "and everyone and their brother is jumping on the PM bandwagon out of fear or greed "and than what? Sell for a 1trillion ZWD and be happy? or what wait untill its all get settled and currency devaluated or reset and pegged to Gold/Silver, so you are exchanging your gold for the currency which will start to be debased again from the moment of exchange? But isn't it a deal with a loss when you buy asset for a high price wait until price dropped and than sell?

Just somebody could elaborate what is a purpose of the scam....Is it a bet that buying power of gold is going to be much higher than it is now (meaning that after reset you could buy more stuff with a OZ of gold) Is there any data which might support such a claim?

I am comlete at loss!!! Help!!!

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 11:33 | 2084041 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

All you say is probably true, but I think you're missing the point of why some guys are stacking gold... it's not in the hopes that the gold will buy more in the future than it does now (although it might, we won't know until we get there). It's for a far more pragmatic reason. If the currency does hyperinflate or outright collapses, then that big stack of paper with pictures of dead guys on it will be worth nothing. Gold will still be gold.

Gold for wealth preservation.

Silver for spending (and possibly making a profit on, if the traditionl ~15-1 Ag/Au ratio reappears)

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 12:26 | 2084119 Babushka
Babushka's picture

OK, I get this so far... but if the money is medium of exchange in between work and goods/services one could need/want and will sonner or later exchange for... than what is a difference, gold, fiat or red feathers...the only things still count are work and goods on offer...? And it only makes a sence if some one works now and wishes to preserv the results of it to exchange for goods/services later. But what I can not understand why? why later? why sombody wants to gamble about how much he would get for his money later if one could enjoy his money now?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:46 | 2082478 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture


Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:35 | 2082915 slyhill
slyhill's picture


Sun, 01/22/2012 - 19:28 | 2087161 Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

This is equivalent to that shiny silver light in the corner distracting those from the shiny little yellow light in front of them...


Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:39 | 2082456 nwskii
nwskii's picture

Silver britchez bitchezzz

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:40 | 2082458 achmachat
achmachat's picture

today was a nice day.

My stash is back in the positive; dollar average price-wise.

too bad it's lost at the bottom of a lake.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:20 | 2082590 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Hmmm...which lake?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:51 | 2082670 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Given the plethora of PM boating accidents around here, I would have thought you all would have learned other's lessons.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:30 | 2082772 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'm long scuba gear & long PM's... (it's a PAIRS trade)...

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:33 | 2082779 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It's remarkable how people smart enough to buy precious metals in the physical form are so stupid they take it boating with them again and again. Take a clue, it doesn't float.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:41 | 2082929 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

I just don't like to leave it at home.  

Of course, way up north, I didn't drop mine in a boating accident- it slipped and fell down an ice-fishing hole.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:02 | 2082979 akak
akak's picture

Someday before too long the government is going to be inquiring about, and probing, every one of your holes in their zeal for your precious metals.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 23:28 | 2083281 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I think the metal they will be hunting is Gold. They do not understand Silver. That, or is scares them 


Fri, 01/20/2012 - 23:35 | 2083289 akak
akak's picture

Or might they go after silver first and foremost --- as the British effectively did in your own country a century and more ago?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:02 | 2083147 tmosley
tmosley's picture

We need heavy stuff for ballast, and rocks just don't cut it, to be honest.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:58 | 2082845 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

That's a lesson I have the hardest time learning. My former stash is out somewhere at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean... very sadly, my savings took a fatal hit like so many other people's here

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:23 | 2083197 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

That never stopped JPM from creating a paper market out of something that you might or might not have owned in the past...

You must be a WUSS...

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:52 | 2082672 balz
balz's picture


Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:39 | 2082925 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Me too.

Cost-averaging is a beautiful thing.  Getting lucky and buying at $26 and change certainly didn't hurt the breakeven line.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:59 | 2083140 s2man
s2man's picture

I track the paper shit, but have no record of the dollar-cost-averaged physical; An ounce is an ounce.

Hmmm, come to think of it, no one else has a record of my physical either. :-)

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 19:32 | 2087166 Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

Yes by chance, i bought actualy a large chuck of phys Nov 2010 at 26 and change.Now it's major support/resistance. I had no clue at the time....


Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:40 | 2082460 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

When even the disinformation specialists reluctantly agree that the above ground stocks of gold exceed those of silver, but stubbornly cling to the notion that a GSR greater than 50 is appropriate, it's obvious that even those who aren't totally mentally challenged will eventually see the light.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:45 | 2082480 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Even funnier is that we only produce about 6-7 times as much silver as we do gold every year, and almost all of the silver is consumed in such a way as to make it almost impossible to recycle economically.  Impossible until patients with burn wounds treated with silver bandages have a few bucks worth in their urine each day.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 17:51 | 2082496 trav7777
trav7777's picture

silver production has risen...simple as that.  gold hasn't.

Your claim that almost all silver is destroyed is nonsense...doesn't stop your making it WHILE AT THE SAME TIME claiming that silver ISN'T an industrial metal!

Silver has a 50/50ish industrial to non- consumption figure.  All the jewelry, bars, coins, and stuff buried out behind the doublewide with your canned ham is not consumed.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:01 | 2082531 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

After System Collapse, Trav will visit local green market. Make smart remarks. Walk away starving. Those with silver, with lead strapped on, will get the grocs.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:03 | 2082539 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you're pretty fuckin insane...

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:09 | 2082559 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

You have no idea. Insane rules.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:22 | 2082595 docmac324
docmac324's picture

Insane rules, so true.  If the SHTF comes, it is the "weeklys" I worry most about.  Need meds, need dialysis, need food, have no prep skills, or common sense.  Totally reactionary response. 

Those will be your real life zombies.  No insulin, no problem.



Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:23 | 2082603 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I could make you a few weeks worth out of the dogs everyone turns loose, but after that you are on your own.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:39 | 2082637 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Dogs and cats will be useful.  Cats will (and do already) keep the rats away, and dogs will keep the tweekers away.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:40 | 2082642 tmosley
tmosley's picture

WHy would you want to keep them away?  They are another good source of insulin.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:06 | 2082713 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Juice the pancreas?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:42 | 2082801 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Aqueous extract, but yeah, pretty much.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 03:21 | 2083642 prole
prole's picture

Fascinating Dr. Lector. Tell me more...

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:40 | 2082797 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The rats or the tweekers?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:11 | 2082867 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Tweekers.  The rats are too small.  Hard to work with.  Especially given that you need to keep them alive for a week or two to maximize yield.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:43 | 2082936 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Fava beans and a fine Chianti should keep them alive for at least a week or two.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:03 | 2083151 s2man
s2man's picture

+1 for the uber sarc

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:02 | 2083145 smiler03
smiler03's picture

If you're that desperate for insulin post apocalypse that you go round killing animals for it to keep you going for a few more days then I would suggest keeping some heroin instead and use that to die in joyful peace.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:06 | 2083155 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Until extraction from fetal calfs was perfected, that was the only way to survive.  Read up on the history of insulin.  There was a rather touching movie about it.  Kids with type one diabetes would waste away until they died, truly a horrible death, until insulin extracted first from dogs came around, then they were able to live as children again, at least for a little while.

Of course, today it is produced by genetically engineered bacteria.  Of course, if you could get your hands on some of that stuff and an incubator, you could probably make it yourself.  Just be sure to steam sterilize and filter before injecting yourself.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:48 | 2082656 Jena
Jena's picture

Tweekers = want to put antlers on everything.  It's just how they are.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:22 | 2082598 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I put the nsa in insane

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:59 | 2082846 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

"Insane Rules"

You'll ask yourself, "where is my mind"   Pixies/Fight Club soundtrack:

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:26 | 2082611 CORNGUY
CORNGUY's picture

There is a chance you are right Trav.   However, if you are will be ugly.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:35 | 2082784 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

there's NO CHANCE he's right...

When a study comes out that says that there's not a nigger on the planet that will accept owning any gold or silver, he'll change his tune...

Trav's bias on Gold/Silver can be expressed in 3 letters... "MR. T"

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:51 | 2082949 trav7777
trav7777's picture

chance I'm right about what, that idiots won't be trading silver for groceries with "lead strapped on"??  ROTFL.

The amount of Call of Duty you people must play....

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:28 | 2083205 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

My COD avatar has a happy face giving a F-U as an army company sleeve patch... & I only shoot at black people...

It's a cultural experiment to see how many levels I can progress in a simulated war game experience...

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 10:15 | 2083941 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Pity da FOOL!

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:54 | 2082835 centerline
centerline's picture

Thats what I have been saying for a long time. No one knows how this is going to play out.  Got to cover the bases and stay nimble.  The beauty is that  most of the things one can do don't go to waste.  Win-win in my opinion.  Even some "investments" which I would rather call "insurance" won't simply go to zero like what is going to happen to promised money.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:25 | 2083044 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Stay nimble... wise words.  Except have some PMs as core investments.  Added to the silver via paper trade today.  What a ride!

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:08 | 2083161 s2man
s2man's picture

Ditto. I grabbed PSLV when it dropped 9% yesterday.  Wheeeee!

You don't say much, Kink, but I like you. To the point.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:07 | 2082534 Bumblebee Tuna
Bumblebee Tuna's picture

All the jewelry, bars, coins, and stuff buried out behind the doublewide with your canned ham is not consumed.

Although I disagree with your outlook on silver, your use of trailor park humor is second to none.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:13 | 2082575 fuu
fuu's picture

RNR/LFP/Max Fischer did it better.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:03 | 2082535 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

Maybe but it has a hell of a lot more intrinsic value than the $100 bill in my wallet. My advice: Get a real nice coin...A Chinese Panda with lots of work put into the fabrication process (not a crude generic bullion coin) and just look at it. You will know that it's quite valuable jut by holding it.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:12 | 2082570 fuu
fuu's picture

Ron Paul rounds ftmfw.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:06 | 2082549 tmosley
tmosley's picture

So you're telling me that production doesn't matter at all, huh?  The fact that silver is only produced at a rate of 6-7 times that of gold, then USED UP, while gold sticks around forever, is bearish for silver?

Do you realize how fucking stupid you sound?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:39 | 2082792 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture


I think he's just pissed that we don't launch our entire arsenal of cruise missiles on the continent of Africa...

He'd flip bullish overnight...

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:54 | 2082961 trav7777
trav7777's picture

wtf good would that do?  cruise missiles at africa?  why?  To burn up silver or something?

cruise missiles blowing up witch doctor huts doesn't sound like a great idea to me, seems like...overkill

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:12 | 2083003 akak
akak's picture

But just think of all the uncreative, wheel-less, water-system-lacking, sexually rampant, murderous niggers that a fleet of well-placed cruise missiles could rid the the world of!  Just picture all those damned useless darkies getting blown into fragments!  Doesn't it just positively make your heart swell and give you goosebumps, trav?  Admit it, the very thought of it gives you a raging hard-on, doesn't it?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:44 | 2083097 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I don't know why you morons can't figure out how to SOLVE problems without killing people.  That's all your little chimp brains can grasp, isn't it?  The solution is ALWAYS killing.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:07 | 2083158 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, your ideas are FAR superior.  Just sterilize them, then let them die as the demographics shift to the point that the population is 95% elderly.  Real smart move, dumbass.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:24 | 2083198 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

come on man, pleeze - this is the stupidest thing I've ever heard.

a demographics shift to the oldside correlated with the sterilization of young idiots?

What a fucking maroon.

Trav has plenty of legitimate flaws to point out, why make an ass out of yourself based on nonsense?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:37 | 2083225 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Note that he advocates sterilizing everyone with an IQ lower than 140.  Which is 95% of the population.

That means 95% of the population won't have children to support them in their old age, either directly or indirectly.

This is not nonsense, this is what Trav actually believes, and has vigorously defended in the past, though now he tries to weasel out of it like the coward he is.

Let's not mince words, Trav is a monster.  A real one.  He would be the next Hitler if given the chance.  He won't as long as good men speak out against his filth, and continue to call him out for what he is.  This is why he hates me so much.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 00:41 | 2083391 trav7777
trav7777's picture

well thank god I'm not hitler depending upon morons like to oppose me.  Because you're too dull to manage the average chimp.

You are aware that birthrate of the fertile could be raised, right? 

No, don't suppose you are...just too dumb.  Children to support them...LOL.  Sure, human population can grow forever. 

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 00:50 | 2083397 akak
akak's picture

When niggers are outlawed, only outlaws will own niggers.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 02:00 | 2083526 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, surely intervention in the marketplace of human lives won't have any unintended consequences.  Surely.  We are smarter than all those who tried such things before.  

Never mind the demographic nightmare created by China's One-Child policy.  Let's do that, but make it a hundred times worse.

lol, and yeah, surely all those smart people would abandon their own reasonable self interest and devote 100% of their resources to having children that will only be a burden to them.  Yeah, that's the ticket.  

Hell, if they won't, maybe we can just tie them up and force them to fuck, then force them to have children, then force them to raise them.  Surely their resentment towards their children won't cause an increase in childhood disease, which is the factor most directly correlated with IQs, creating a generation of idiot criminals upon which we can thrust the duty of supporting the elderly at a rate of 5 old folks per child being GENEROUS.

You, like Hitler, fail to understand the consequences of your ideas.  Dumbasses both.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 15:56 | 2084718 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the human race's growth is a "demographic nightmare" you freakin idiot.

Either WE CHOOSE or nature WILL.  PERIOD.

there's no way around that, jackoff.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 03:17 | 2083637 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

Removing idiots from the gene pool is not a viable solution, I agree. Who will live happily as an IQ140 epsilon in that scenario?

But the concept of herding populations, as opposed to letting them run wild based solely on government sponsored dysprophylacticism... how the fuck is that evil in any way?

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 11:03 | 2084008 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Or you could just remove the government sponsership.

Stop trying to force a choice between two evils.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 12:19 | 2084107 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

Removing the government sponsorship would kill off a shitload of people, too. Mostly poor people with large families in urban areas. The same demographic that Trav seems to have it out for.

Funny that you two are both now championing the same thing, just with different degrees of design and foresight.

I would argue that your proposal to go cold turkey on government sponsorship actually seems crueler and more likely to incite violence and chaos

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 15:58 | 2084725 trav7777
trav7777's picture

everyone...robots can pick up the trash.

Huxley's model didn't account for the qualitative difference between the smart and the dumb and how unnecessary a lot of what people DID back then now is.

Smart societies are peaceful and harmonious. Diversity and the dumb and violent kill all that.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:47 | 2086840 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

> robots can pick up the trash

Everyone... this may be the most amazing generalization of social hierarchy and ambition I've ever heard.

As it turns out, I'll be in "Scandinavia" myself later this winter. Mainly to see if the food at Noma is all it's cracked up to be. Your raving synecdoche on high-IQ societies is up in the air for now, pending further evidential scrutiny

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:34 | 2083218 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I don't know why you morons can't figure out how to SOLVE problems without killing people.

I'm less worried about killing people than I am about killing silver... People, as proven throught history, are perfectly willing and able to kill each other at will...

PEOPLE... as it turns out... are characteristically ABIOTIC... They re-form, and overfill every nook & cranny... By comparison... Ag is probably more molecularly precious...

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:52 | 2082956 trav7777
trav7777's picture


Didn't I just TELL YOU that silver PRODUCTION hadn't peaked yet?

you sniff glue don't you?  Be honest

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:37 | 2083071 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I like how you can't process simple concepts.  Must be that revitiligo of yours acting up.

You can TELL ME all you want, but you are a fucking DUMBASS for thinking that production has to FALL for silver to RISE versus gold, when there is seven times as much silver as gold being PRODUCED while gold is WORTH 52 times silver.


Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:45 | 2083100 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Why do you change the subject every time you make a subsequent post onto yet ANOTHER topic that wasn't in dispute?

Oh yeah, it's because you're a moron. 

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:08 | 2083164 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Both my posts were talking about the same thing.  But you are too stupid to comprehend that.  Must have had a blood transfusion from a darkie.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 00:06 | 2083336 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Guys, why don't you both nominate a place somewhere and duel each other to the death. That way at least 1 racist twat is removed from the planet, and if we get lucky, 2 racist twats will be removed from the planet.

ZH has great articles and some extraordinarily smart commenters here on the boards, but there's an incredible amount of shit to wade through at times.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 00:15 | 2083348 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Dude, this is entertainment. I see a silver headline, I make a pot of coffee and strike a match, I know I'm going to be laughing.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 13:01 | 2084201 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Same exact thing here WonderDawg, these silver threads consume an entire La Gloria Cubana, Series R, #7.

Natural, of course...

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 02:02 | 2083531 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, I guess you don't realize that I am taunting him with his own racism.

But then, unlike Trav, I suffer the dumb to live and have children.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:09 | 2082555 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

Trav777... day in and day out, you get rained on with the down arrows like a bukkake fest... is it a humiliation thing or what?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:06 | 2082711 akak
akak's picture

I hear tell that some people are into humiliation as a sexual experience.

Trav clearly does not lack for stimulation --- nor for the instigation of it.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:47 | 2083105 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

methinks ye might protest a bit too much, eh?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:53 | 2082957 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I don't have a fragile ego like you (or fragile X like mosely-claven) so I do not care about my arrow count.

You people look mostly like lemmings to me; there are a few here who can think, but not many.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:39 | 2083076 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yet you continuously complain about it, and project your inadequacies (which are many and vast) onto others.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:46 | 2083102 trav7777
trav7777's picture


I have NEVER complained about red arrows...I have laughed at them!  Just like I laugh at you!

You can lie all you want, cliff, but you can't lie your way to the truth.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:09 | 2083167 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You sure do talk about them a lot, and bring them up first.  You don't want to admit it, but it grinds on you.  Just part of the walking mass of complexes that is Trav the Lonely.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 00:51 | 2083400 trav7777
trav7777's picture

HUH?  I responded to someone posting TO ME about red arrows, you idiot.

I have never ONCE complained of being junked or down arrowed...ever.  Why?  Because I DON'T give a fuck!  None of you people mean anything to me.  I laugh at you, cliff.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 03:40 | 2083664 prole
prole's picture

If you don't give a krap about these Rubes- Why do you seek to elucidate them with your brilliance?

Why waste your effort on idiots who don't "mean anything to me?"

If I hated people, and they were blundering into a doomed investment (like Trabant Motors or a Newt Gingrinch bribe) I would

simply laugh silently and enjoy their bitter tears, why such concern from you oh great insultor?

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 15:59 | 2084732 trav7777
trav7777's picture

did you ever see "Gorillas in the Mist"?

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 16:28 | 2084805 akak
akak's picture

I think I'm seeing (and reading) one right now.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 18:44 | 2082651 My Days Are Get...
My Days Are Getting Fewer's picture



I read your comments with interest and think that you an intelligent person.  

You seem to like gold and believe in peak oil.  But you hate silver.  


The USGS reported around 2009 that there will be no minable silver ore left by 2022.  So, I guess I believe in peak silver.

Yes, 50% or so of silver is consumed (destroyed).  The remainder is either recovered silver or investment bars or jewelry.

Is there anyway I can persuade you to write a couple of sentences, stating your overview, as to why silver is a bad investment. 

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:02 | 2082695 fuu
fuu's picture

He doesn't hate silver either, he called for silver 5-10x higher "once production peaks" a few weeks ago.

He just hates Tom.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:16 | 2082734 Stu Pedassle
Stu Pedassle's picture

@ My Days Are Get....


"The USGS reported around 2009 that there will be no minable silver ore left by 2022."


Do you have a source or link that you can provide?  Thanks.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:38 | 2082765 akak
akak's picture

"The USGS reported around 2009 that there will be no minable silver ore left by 2022."

Not to bash the original poster there, but that is a GROSS misinterpretation of the data, and demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of what mineral reserves actually mean and represent.

I have rehashed this point over and over, seemingly to no effect whatsoever --- people STILL keep repeating this same erroneous interpretation of mineral reserves.  Yes, the USGS does officially report that world silver reserves are at around 10-12 years of current production, but that does NOT mean, in ANY WAY, that silver is therefore going to "run out" in 10 or 12 years!

What people consistently fail to understand is that reported reserves are NOT some absolute physical quantity, but are defined by price.  In other words, the world currently has 10 to 12 years of silver reserves at current production levels, and more importantly, at today's price.  If and as the price of silver rises, proven and reported reserves would AUTOMATICALLY increase, irrespective of ANY new discoveries, as formerly uneconomic deposits now become profitable and automatically become redefined as "reserves".

With silver prices double or triple of today's price, silver reserves will almost certainly at least double, perhaps triple, perhaps even increase MORE than that.  But to try to beat the point home once again, one CANNOT talk about "reserves" of any mineral without ALSO considering the price of that mineral, as price defines the quantity of the reserves in question.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 19:49 | 2082822 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Well said.  This is why peak theory is dumb in general.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:11 | 2082855 akak
akak's picture

Well, to be honest, and specific, nothing I said negates the possibility, indeed the reality (eventual or actual) of "peak" anything in particular, which is merely the point at which production of a finite resource reaches its maximum level.  Some argue, including geologists I know, that we may very well be at or at least very close to "peak gold", barring a very substantial AND prolonged price increase in gold ("peak silver" looks to be somewhat further away), and possibly even regardless of such an upward price adjustment. 

But that is FAR from predicting that gold, or silver, or oil, or anything is close to, or going to, "run out", like somebody just turning off a tap.  The financial and industrial implications of possible or eventual production declines, however, is an entirely different story --- peak whale oil, for example, did not doom the indoor illumination industry, nor did peak oak (which was of critical importance to some nations in the 18th century) doom the shipbuilding industry.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:15 | 2082877 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Peaks are either transient, moot, or we're all dead.  Transient peaks are surpassed eventually due to higher prices opening up new production.  Moot peaks mean the technology that was reliant on the resource is obsolete, like whale oil for lighting.  We're all dead means, well, we all died, so no-one wants anything.  As everyone hasn't died before, one can reasonably make the assumption that any production peaks we see are transient or moot.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:29 | 2082904 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Forever?  The world has consumed more energy since the end of WWII than it had up to 1945.  Best case is substitutes always appear, but to say that any production peaks are transient or moot is just an article of faith.  Your faith, I guess, is that something will replace oil.  I think it's a silly thought but it could happen.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:33 | 2082911 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Faith?  How's your faith in gravity?  It has worked forever.  So does economics.  That's just how the world works.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:03 | 2082982 trav7777
trav7777's picture

3 facts:

oil has peaked.  So has gold.  Your geologist friends laugh at you when you're not in the room.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:23 | 2083040 Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

T - Big G is not a constant ... Those Pteradactyls with the wing spread of an airplane could never have gotten off the ground or the brontosauri would never have been able to lift their heads off the ground in present gravity, just sayin'

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:38 | 2083073 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Einstein would disagree.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:03 | 2083132 smiler03
smiler03's picture

@ Pope Clement

This is a completely new theory to me. Gravity has increased over time? Please do share more details. I need a good laugh.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:19 | 2083189 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

my belt proves it!

as does the scale!

so there!

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:56 | 2083253 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Now THAT'S science!

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:47 | 2083236 Hohum
Hohum's picture

My faith in gravity is based on natural science and is much greater than economics, a social science that begins with "assume...."

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:52 | 2083245 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Don't confuse the school of economics with economics, any more than you should confuse a school of alchemy with chemistry.  Economics is real.  The study of human action.  Humans act the same way when presented with the same circumstances.  SImilar circumstances tend to give similar outcomes.  

Assume nothing.

I would suggest you read Freakonomics.  The authors of that book are REAL economists.  And they don't even address financial issues.  If you want something heavier, go for the Austrians.  Human Action is damn fine, but it is a dense read.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 23:01 | 2083257 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Keep a dictionary handy when reading Human Action. Fuck, that's a tedious read, but great for learning words you'll probably never have the chance to use in conversation. It's an interesting compliment to the theory of socionomics, which as some of you know, is the study of human social behavior. To use a simple analogy, human action is a study of the nature of trees, whereas socionomics is the study of the nature of forests.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 23:44 | 2083298 trav7777
trav7777's picture

huh?  Humans do not act the same when presented with similar circumstances, moron.

Look at how you act when presented with a cogent just babble and stammer and bullshit.  Others at least try to say something intelligent.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 02:03 | 2083534 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Of course you would say that.  You don't believe in economics.  You only believe in the little ideas that flit in and out of your head like so many moths in an old spinster's closet.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 16:02 | 2084746 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah, um, I tend not to believe things that AREN'T TRUE.

People are not all the same, IDIOT.

For example, when faced with a thought problem, you just drool and glaze over.  An intelligent person solves it.

People do not respond to the same circumstances with the same reaction.  For example, there are child studies showing far more frequent choice of 1 lollipop today versus 3 tomorrow from black children versus white children.   Just ONE little example.

This is why economics, and you, are a failure.  Your reaction to the truth is to run and hide and babble and bullshit.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:46 | 2082919 akak
akak's picture

I would not say that production peaks are necessarily ALL "transient or moot" --- physical reality, and the finite nature of resources, WILL at some point demand the decline in the production of any given non-renewable resource (at least on this planet).  The real question is, how important will that production decline be?  Will alternatives to that resource be available, and at what price?

The fact that we may not have yet seen any non-transient, non-moot resource production declines (and even that point is debateable) does not take anything away from the fact that if industrial civilization continues to exist, we almost certainly WILL see such critical production peaks eventually.  The last time I looked, the earth does not have infinite volume and infinite resources.  Economics cannot trump physical reality, despite all simplistic and linear academic theories to the contrary.  But that is just a statement of physical reality ---- the social, political, and technological implications of a given peak resourse is another and far more complex matter altogether.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 20:58 | 2082970 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Resource peaks can also be made moot by changes in how we live.  Say that there is no alternative to oil for transportation, and that we can't produce fuel any other way.  What happens as it gets scarcer?  The price goes up.  WHat happens when the price goes up?  We move closer to our jobs.  Food production moves back to suburbia.  We become an urban species again.  Not that big of a deal.  Who knows what we will get in the future?  If things get too expensive, maybe we choose to plug ourselves into the Matrix and live out lives in an artificial reality defined by plenty.  Maybe we all get individual holodecks.  Maybe we all move into self sufficient next-generation Earthships.  Maybe we get all of our manufactured goods through a system of pneumatic tube delivery systems.  Who knows?  The point is, people, the market, will come up with something, and the freer the market, the more amazing the solution. 

No-one misses charcoal, and few miss whale oil (perfume wearers, perhaps).  Life adjusts.  If it didn't, we'd all be dead.  That's the way it is, and that's the way it will continue to be.  The fact is that there ARE replacements, many of which are ALREADY economical, and are in the process of being scaled up.  Many more become economical at $120 oil.  More at $140, etc, etc.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:06 | 2082987 trav7777
trav7777's picture

could you POSSIBLY apply MORE magical thinking to this?

I loved that holodeck thing...I guess it will run on unicorn piss.  The pressure for the pneumatic tubes (and construction of them) will be by unicorn..farts?

There isn't enough YIELD on crops without oil to feed everyone alive now, cliff.  Even your butt buddy akok gets this, but for reasons that escape us all, he isn't bright enough to approach the mental 3rd rail that both of you have.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:41 | 2083083 tmosley
tmosley's picture

And MAN shall never WALK on the MOON!


Is the capitalization of key words helping your demented mind comprehend the message here?

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 21:55 | 2083123 trav7777
trav7777's picture

complete non-sequitur and utterly irrelevant.

This moon shit is something technocornucopian morons bring up EVERY TIME in response to a statement of the immutability of physics laws.

This is how I know you are not a real scientist.  No real scientist would say something so fucking stupid. 

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:13 | 2083174 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Physics sez pneumatics can't be used to deliver things.  Fizziks sez you can't deliver a signal from a computer directly into the brain.  Fixix sez people can't move closer to their place of employment.

Visx sez der is no such thing as scientific or technological progress.

Go, you are as desperate as you trying to keep your wife from leaving your abusive ass.

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 23:44 | 2083300 trav7777
trav7777's picture

this is all you have to defend your magical thinking?  Infant babble?

Good lord, get help.  Put down the airplane glue and go to rehab

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 02:04 | 2083536 tmosley
tmosley's picture


Sat, 01/21/2012 - 01:19 | 2083438 seventree
seventree's picture

What scientifically literate person ever said that sending humans to the moon was physically impossible? Not many. In fact Goddard proposed a plan in the 30's, in detail. The question was whether it was worth doing.

In the 60's the answer apparently was yes, not to further mankind or science but to show up the Soviets. MIC didn't make out too bad either. But it will never happen again, for economic and resource reasons, not science. We already spent 100BN we didn't have on ISS. (Also a big MIC win, it's all the same guys.)

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 02:07 | 2083542 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Idiots.  Like Trav.  There were certainly enough people who thought it impossible for man to fly, then for man to fly faster than the speed of sound.  Now Trav thinks it impossible for capital to accumulate to provide a comfortable existence with minimal energy input.

The poorest of the poor today live better than the kings of old, even accounting for energy usage.  This is because of capital investment. 

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 16:06 | 2084750 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I never at any point said what you attribute to me.

when faced with ANYTHING truthful or a counterargument, ALL YOU EVER DO is lie.

None of the points you make NOW were the points you made THEN.  You change the subject at EVERY subsequent post.

Total strawman, total logical fallacy.  One after another.  You are simply too illogical and stupid to be able, it seems, to compose a consistent argument and stick with it.  Wanna know why this is?  Because you say really STUPID shit and when someone points that out, you change the subject to a strawman and act as if that's what you were talking about the whole time!  Then when THAT gets blown out of the water, you do it AGAIN.

The solution, CLIFF, is to STOP saying stupid shit!

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 19:06 | 2085140 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I guess you forgot that I made a file of some of your inane commentary.  Here is the one where you set the bar at an IQ of 140:


by trav7777 

on Sun, 03/06/2011 - 22:25



the vast majority of people cannot understand geometric compounding.


So maybe we need to set the bar at 140; whatever.


The population needs to decrease and get smarter.  If at that point, we have to craft a BNW type outcome, fine.


Grow OR die leads to death because growth CANNOT continue forever.  I am a bacteria at 10 minutes to midnight sounding an alarm.



You don't know shit about how bacteria grows either, by the way.  Exponential growth in a bacterial population lasts about less than 24 hours, no matter how much nutrient they have.  They then settle down and form a biofilm, something analogous to a human city, where individual cells use fewer resources, and they reproduce more slowly.  You know, like the trend that has been seen in all industrialized societies.

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