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Gold Outperforms As Stocks Suffer From Wal-Mart's 'Sinko-De-Abril'

Tyler Durden's picture




 

An ugly European market initially dragged stocks notably weaker overnight, with plenty of headline-makers from Apple's moves to WMT's 'Sinko-de-Abril' accounting for 20% of the Dow's loss, and Europe's macro data but after the first 30 minutes or so, S&P futures bounced off 4/10 day-session lows and leaked higher all day from there to end around last Monday's closing print. Volumes lagged as we rallied - as did average trade size - but in the last few minutes heavy volume and large average trade size stepped back in more biased to the downside. Stocks and volatility continue to follow very similar paths during this reflation phase as they did in 2010 and 2011 and while much was made of VIX's more-positive-than-expected performance today, we remind readers that we are at 8-month wides relative to realized vol - suggesting markets are anticipating a lot more anxiety ahead. FX markets leaked higher in the USD until shortly after the US day-session open and then drifted USD weaker from there as Treasury weakness coincided with EUR buying - smelling a lot like more repatriation flows. The drift higher in equities is therefore supported from a correlation-perspective as carry and rates (and oil) pushed up from soon after the US open. The USD ended up around 0.25% from Friday's close (with JPY the best performer and stable from the Tokyo close) which matches gold's 0.25% loss (though still best of the group) as Commodities all lost ground today with Silver underperforming. WTI managed to get back over $103 by the close. Credit markets underperformed close-to-close but from the lows intraday, they managed to out-gain stocks with a late-day pop in HYG bringing it in line with its intrinsic value and SPY for the first time since 3/29.

 

HYG (red) and SPY (green) dropped today largely in line with each other but most notably pulling back in line with HYG's intrinsic-value (dark-red) for the first time in almost a month (orange ovals)...This may remove some of the technicals from the market.

VIX ended the day a smidge under 19%, which would appear about 1vol below its recent market experience would suggest was fair given stock relative performance. Post-OPEX is always a little tricky but (h/t Andy Yorks) we note that the implied volatility market (black upper pane below) is clearly pricing in much more chaos ahead as it now stands at its highest relative to realized volatility (orange upper pane) in over 8 months - lower pane (perhaps explaining some of the relative bullishness - meaning drop - in VIX today).

This kind of gap is unsustainable and our recent comments on the pick up in close-to-close and high-to-low market swings is very reminiscent of the ends of previous reflation-attempt periods. This chart below shows the daily changes of the S&P for each of the last 3 'Easing' periods - indicating the massive compression in vol, moderation, then explosion. This anecdotally shows the fact that artificially suppressing risk in a market only causing that risk to squirt out with even greater magnitude. Most notably the current (orange) period has seen even more vol compression in the last few months than in previous periods BUT the start of the explosion or change in vol regime is occurring fast now...

And comparing equity price movements themselves provides a similar picture for the potential for events to unfold rapidly...

Equity markets, just as they did in Europe, played catch up to US credit markets overall today. High yield remains much less excited about things in general but HYG continues to beat to its own flow-driven technical drum...

Commodities, helped by weakness in the USD and a correlated sense of well-being from stocks perhaps, pushed higher from their early morning lows with Silver the last to get the joke today...

Treasuries round-tripped today pulling back off their best levels of the day. 30Y outperformed as the whole complex was better (lower in yield) on the day but 30Y went from -6.5bps heading into the European close to -3.5bps at the close.

All nine of the S&P's major sectors were in the red today but Energy interestingly outperformed as Staples underperformed - not what one would expect on a down-day but given the gap down and drift hgher perhaps understandable. Financials were mixed with the majors generally underperforming (MS -2.75%) as BofA shook off an early $7 handle.

The week ahead remains full of events and so today's lackluster performance is perhaps understandable with nervous shorts taking some early profits or locking in protection but the volume/trade-size into the close felt more like advantageous sellers managing to get their trades done 1 sigma above VWAP on a notably down day overall.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 04/23/2012 - 16:56 | 2368395 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Nooo! Gold is bad. They told me so on the Financial News!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:09 | 2368431 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

MSM slips up and reveals existence of Planet X:

http://www.examiner.com/article/hundreds-of-reports-of-sonic-boom-and-shaking-attributed-to-meteor-strike#ixzz1sq9QicTQ

Get ready people, its real, everything else is a distraction, this site has good info:

http://poleshift.ning.com/

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:12 | 2368439 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

'STAR TREK' is the other thread...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:13 | 2368443 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

The examiner is not the MSM.  If you read to the end of the post the author starts citing the bible as a reference for facts.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:25 | 2368477 infinity8
infinity8's picture

The last paragraph:

The bible speaks of many other types of troubles going on at the time of the passing of a large comet but the stories being currently circulated seem to be intentionally trying to get people thinking that it is the end of the world and I just don't believe that is the case.  It could rather be a convenient way to make people more apt to be living in fear or apathy instead of striving to help bring about a restoration of our nation's individual freedoms, liberty and prosperity

Continue reading on Examiner.com Hundreds of reports of sonic boom and shaking attributed to meteor strike - Washington DC Conservative | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/article/hundreds-of-reports-of-sonic-boom-and-shaking-attributed-to-meteor-strike#ixzz1stvLwMTd Best to read it through. Selective scanning is, unfortunately, fundamental in the 21st century.
Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:51 | 2368526 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

A measly 5% pull back in the equity markets and the 10 year coils to 1.93%

TIPS negative through 12-15 year range

Too much FIAT and nuttin to buy------- only the truly enlightened have physical

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:56 | 2368527 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

YEa nothing to buy! OMFG the hilarity is awesome.

Go with no reason to buy a lump of metal given all the other choices.

Pumping PM despite no QE?

BOL with that.

There is no win but don't let that get in the way.   Shit hits fan PM liquidated to meet margin calls.

Shit doesn't hit fan who wants to own PMs?

No win. Keep pumping though.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:15 | 2368571 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Good point Xwit, but with only shit being traded for the foreseeable future lumping metal seems better than shitmongering till no one want`s to own anything.

No win ? That could be a winner. Don`t pump it though, being
on the last stand is looked down upon as reactionary...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 22:04 | 2368927 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Owned and Operated!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=njSV5LtVmR4

My Life and Your Life on FILM!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 01:56 | 2369140 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Xkw---you don't understand it the least.  Shit hitting the fan means all paper assets (including paper claims to metals) are in jeopardy of being worthless.   You cannot margin call physical posession.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:12 | 2368438 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

A mi me gusta el oro.

On a completely different note, the banner ad to my left assures me that the Obamas stand up for working Americans, and they are asking for my help.

The whole family is pictured with big shit-eating grins. The kind that makes them look like they've been helping themselves just fine.

Excuse me for a second, I have to go punch a hole in my wall.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:59 | 2368650 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Confusion say, "Man who does not block adds lives in perforated house."

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 19:05 | 2368667 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Man, you need ad-blocker. First you need to download Mozilla Firefox, to use as a browser instead of Internet Explorer, then you'll find you can add-on a feature called Ad-Blocker. Like, I don't get any of these ads. If I had to see that lying hi-yaller, oreo-cookie, bullshit artist, on my computer screen I'd go nuts. Save yourself the stress and block out the great obamanation. Cheers. Yo, tambien me gusta La Plata; pues, es la misma onda, eh?  Arriba!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 21:20 | 2368877 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

+1 for ad-blocker. Opera is also an excellent browser.
(tambien para la Onda Plata).

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 07:52 | 2369318 EvlTheCat
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If you are going to use Opera get Ghostery too.  Then you can see how many trackers are used at the ZH website and block them.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 16:57 | 2368398 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

How could something that's not backed by anything outperform stocks?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 05:48 | 2369233 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

I second that notion, I thought barbarous relic was obsoleted by genius of financial innovation.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 16:59 | 2368404 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yet the stocks of companies that mine that thing not backed by anything got thumped again much worse

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:11 | 2368434 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

They got 'Repsol-ed'...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:21 | 2368462 Conman
Conman's picture

Aw i rather say they got Corzine-ed  all through that doesn't really apply here it sounds better and reminds us that scum still walks around free and not in a 5x10 cell.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 23:41 | 2369047 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Not yet, but that is coming.....  and no wonder gold stocks are languishing.  Never pay a dividend, continuing dilution from endless insider options, and facing extreme political risk.  An immovable hole in the ground with gold at the bottom.  What politician will be able to resist confiscating that?

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:07 | 2368424 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"Gold: Basic Facts for the 99%"

"Marginal Utility and Gold"

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 19:07 | 2368672 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

www.professorantalEFekete  you're going to go nuts; he actually understands the whole subject.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:14 | 2368446 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Charts, bitchez!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:55 | 2368531 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

I love ZH market analysis! Booked 10% on the VIX today.. Again, thank you Tyler's.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 17:56 | 2368532 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Double post, bitchezz!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:01 | 2368545 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Weather outperforms as hurricanes fail to reach coast.

Boarded up shops expect huge sales increases upon reopening
soon.

Gold did what ? Nothing, but thanks for mentioning and drawing attention.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:37 | 2368610 The4thStooge
The4thStooge's picture

Never mind that little hurricane that landed in Moscow today...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:05 | 2368554 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Interesting Read:

THE SECRET FREEMASON / ILLUMINATI COVENANT

“An illusion it will be, so large, so vast it will escape their perception. Those who will see it will be thought of as insane. We will create separate fronts to prevent them from seeing the connection between us. We will behave as if we are not connected to keep the illusion alive. Our goal will be accomplished one drop at a time so as to never bring suspicion upon ourselves. This will also prevent them from seeing the changes as they occur.

“We will always stand above the relative field of their experience for we know the secrets of the absolute. We will work together always and will remain bound by blood and secrecy. Death will come to he who speaks.

“We will keep their lifespan short and their minds weak while pretending to do the opposite. We will use our knowledge of science and technology in subtle ways so they will never see what is happening. We will use soft metals, aging accelerators and sedatives in food and water, also in the air. They will be blanketed by poisons everywhere they turn. The soft metals will cause them to lose their minds. We will promise to find a cure from our many fronts, yet we will feed them more poison. The poisons will be absorbed through their skin and mouths, they will destroy their minds and reproductive systems. From all this, their children will be born dead, and we will conceal this information. The poisons will be hidden in everything that surrounds them, in what they drink, eat, breathe and wear. We must be ingenious in dispensing the poisons for they can see far. We will teach them that the poisons are good, with fun images and musical tones. Those they look up to will help. We will enlist them to push our poisons.

“They will see our products being used in film and will grow accustomed to them and will never know their true effect. When they give birth we will inject poisons into the blood of their children and convince them its for their help. We will start early on, when their minds are young, we will target their children with what children love most, sweet things. When their teeth decay we will fill them with metals that will kill their mind and steal their future. When their ability to learn has been affected, we will create medicine that will make them sicker and cause other diseases for which we will create yet more medicine. We will render them docile and weak before us by our power. They will grow depressed, slow and obese, and when they come to us for help, we will give them more poison.

“We will focus their attention toward money and material goods so they many never connect with their inner self. We will distract them with fornication, external pleasures and games so they may never be one with the oneness of it all. Their minds will belong to us and they will do as we say. If they refuse we shall find ways to implement mind-altering technology into their lives. We will use fear as our weapon. We will establish their governments and establish opposites within. We will own both sides. We will always hide our objective but carry out our plan. They will perform the labor for us and we shall prosper from their toil.

“Our families will never mix with theirs. Our blood must be pure always, for it is the way. We will make them kill each other when it suits us. We will keep them separated from the oneness by dogma and religion. We will control all aspects of their lives and tell them what to think and how. We will guide them kindly and gently letting them think they are guiding themselves. We will foment animosity between them through our factions. When a light shall shine among them, we shall extinguish it by ridicule, or death, whichever suits us best. We will make them rip each other’s hearts apart and kill their own children. We will accomplish this by using hate as our ally, anger as our friend. The hate will blind them totally, and never shall they see that from their conflicts we emerge as their rulers. They will be busy killing each other. They will bathe in their own blood and kill their neighbors for as long as we see fit.

 “We will benefit greatly from this, for they will not see us, for they cannot see us. We will continue to prosper from their wars and their deaths. We shall repeat this over and over until our ultimate goal is accomplished. We will continue to make them live in fear and anger though images and sounds. We will use all the tools we have to accomplish this. The tools will be provided by their labor. We will make them hate themselves and their neighbors.

 

“We will always hide the divine truth from them, that we are all one. This they must never know! They must never know that color is an illusion, they must always think they are not equal. Drop by drop, drop by drop we will advance our goal. We will take over their land, resources and wealth to exercise total control over them. We will deceive them into accepting laws that will steal the little freedom they will have. We will establish a money system that will imprison them forever, keeping them and their children in debt.

"When they shall ban together, we shall accuse them of crimes and present a different story to the world for we shall own all the media. We will use our media to control the flow of information and their sentiment in our favor. When they shall rise up against us we will crush them like insects, for they are less than that. They will be helpless to do anything for they will have no weapons."

“We will recruit some of their own to carry out our plans, we will promise them eternal life, but eternal life they will never have for they are not of us. The recruits will be called “initiates” and will be indoctrinated to believe false rites of passage to higher realms. Members of these groups will think they are one with us never knowing the truth. They must never learn this truth for they will turn against us. For their work they will be rewarded with earthly things and great titles, but never will they become immortal and join us, never will they receive the light and travel the stars. They will never reach the higher realms, for the killing of their own kind will prevent passage to the realm of enlightenment. This they will never know. The truth will be hidden in their face, so close they will not be able to focus on it until its too late. Oh yes, so grand the illusion of freedom will be, that they will never know they are our slaves.

“When all is in place, the reality we will have created for them will own them. This reality will be their prison. They will live in self-delusion. When our goal is accomplished a new era of domination will begin. Their minds will be bound by their beliefs, the beliefs we have established from time immemorial.

“But if they ever find out they are our equal, we shall perish then. THIS THEY MUST NEVER KNOW. If they ever find out that together they can vanquish us, they will take action. They must never, ever find out what we have done, for if they do, we shall have no place to run, for it will be easy to see who we are once the veil has fallen. Our actions will have revealed who we are and they will hunt us down and no person shall give us shelter.

“This is the secret covenant by which we shall live the rest of our present and future lives, for this reality will transcend many generations and life spans. This covenant is sealed by blood, our blood. We, the ones who from heaven to earth came.”

“This covenant must NEVER, EVER be known to exist. It must NEVER, EVER be written or spoken of for if it is, the consciousness it will spawn will release the fury of the PRIME CREATOR upon us and we shall be cast to the depths from whence we came and remain there until the end time of infinity itself.”

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 19:43 | 2368736 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Pure BS.

... the finest BS.

 

 

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:15 | 2368569 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Silver down 8.8 times the fall in gold today on a percentage basis.  They are really attacking silver.   Must be preparation for more QE.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:24 | 2368586 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

@ JustObserving, absolutely!  Hitting the coin shop tomorrow and stacking.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 19:08 | 2368674 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I bought today at $30.54 basis June. We'll see how that works out.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:26 | 2368593 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

should read 'Sinko de Mayo'

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 18:48 | 2368627 MexBug
MexBug's picture

So the giant is not so different from Telmex, Cemex, Elektra and all other Oligopolies "Made in Mexico" after all.... Shame on a suppossedly truly World Class Company, but then again.... if the U.S.A can have many Enrons, Lehmans, MF´s et al.... this is just pecata minuta...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 19:09 | 2368675 chump666
chump666's picture

Oil rallies to 103, DAX hits 3% neg and crushes it's tech supports. 

American markets are heading for major payback, even if that lunatic Bernanke pumps QE3 official into the system...he will basically send Europe into a widespread riot zone, erupt the middle east into all out war and most likely allowing China to say 'f*ck you' and let Nth Korea attack South Korea.

In summary, take the pain Wall Street you are heading for a 10% or 15% correction, that and oil will need to go to at least 80 for QE to start.

The sell off last session was pitiful

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 19:17 | 2368685 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Now that is a prediction!

+tener cojones

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 20:36 | 2368818 chump666
chump666's picture

That's how we roll.

 

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 19:15 | 2368684 chump666
chump666's picture

hahah WalMart...

 

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 19:34 | 2368723 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

"Gold outperforms stocks", as gold looses a bit today.  Isn't that the type of spin and bullshit we decry daily here when we hear it from the MSM?

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 21:36 | 2368888 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

I agree to a degree but in relative terms, the way it was meant, the point is correct. You'd expect gold to do worse now that it is in a short term correction, and you'd expect the dollar to do much better with Europe in problems. But instead the dollar doesn't outperform the euro that much and gold holds up relatively good. Indeed it outperforms even in a short term correction. This should tell you something about this so called recovery.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 21:37 | 2368898 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

2 huge pieces from Jim Sinclair today. You need to take the time to read and understand what the man is conveying here. In a world of utter bullshit, this is true wisdom. The earth is shifting under our feet.

The Implications Of China Paying In Gold April 23, 2012, at 5:09 pm
by in the category General Editorial |  Print This Post |  Email This Post

Dear CIGAs,

The implications of China paying for Iranian oil in gold is the most important event in the modern history of gold

1. It is reasonable to assume that China has been threatened with total or at least selective exclusion from the SWIFT system if it pays in any currency for Iranian oil.

2. Gold has been decided by China as the means of making payment for massive international purchases free of the SWIFT system.

3. Other Asian and Middle Eastern nations will now see the gold they hold as money free of Western economic interference.

4. Gold now is not only money free of liability, but also free from interference regarding settlement by the long arm of Western influence.

5. The SWIFT system is becoming ever more a weapon of Western international political will.

6. In case of war anywhere, it is now demonstrated for all to see that only gold will buy the materials required. Paper currencies are under the SWIFT system’s control in settlement.

7. Far from being a barbaric relic, gold is now clearly the money of state survival in every sense.

8. It is reasonable and possible for the supply of physical gold to fall far behind the size of the massive short positions now common to algorithm and hedge fund paper shorts. That will make an effective cover at a reasonable price as compared to a certain day’s close impossible the following day on an exogenous event.

9. It may not be possible to use TA of any nature to determine a price of overvaluation for gold. Should the USA decide to take on China in full out economic war with the physical market totally illiquid, such as through isolation from the SWIFT system, consider the gold price that might result.

The Best Reason In The World To Buy Gold April 23, 2012, at 2:26 pm
by in the category General Editorial |  Print This Post |  Email This Post

Dear CIGAs,

Gold is officially replacing the US dollar June 28th. The cat is out of the bag.

Phil, you are booting any nation that dares to refuse to be legislated by any other body than themselves out of the SWIFT system.

You have officially made gold money. Now what are you going to do, declare economic war on China? They will fire dollars back at you.

You just might end the economic world as you knew it.

The Best Reason in the World to Buy Gold
CIGA Eric

Have no doubt, emotions generated by short-term price action will be influencing investor decision-making a hundred years from now. We may have substituted iPad for the telegraph over the past hundred years, but we’re still fairly lousy traders as a species. The real world makes decision based on reality rather than perceptions generated by emotions. Well, at least the real world that stays in business. The Chinese are buying gold while the public panics and sells. Nuf said.

Headline: The Best Reason in the World to Buy Gold

"Beijing is planning to avoid U.S. financial sanctions on Iran by paying for oil with gold. China’s imports of the metal are already large, and you can guess what additional purchases are going to do to prices. On the last day of 2011, President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012. The NDAA, as it is called, attempts to reduce Iran’s revenue from the sale of petroleum by imposing sanctions on foreign financial institutions conducting transactions with Iranian financial institutions in connection with those sales. This provision, which essentially cuts off sanctioned institutions from the U.S. financial system, takes effect on June 28."

Source: forbes.com

More…

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 22:58 | 2368998 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

That is very interesting Arrest, thank you for sharing the Sinclair pieces with us.  I did not catch him today.

What I wonder is whether China will pay for the oil with gold as a reference price of +/- $1640 or whether the Iranians will accept LESS gold than that...  That is, maybe Iran and China would BOTH be happy trading gold for oil at $2000 or more and avoid the SWIFT...

Any hint of China getting oil for gold (paying less gold than the current gold "paper price") would indeed be huge, and move us closer to Freegold.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 21:44 | 2368913 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

I hear the Fed is no longer tentatively leaning against QE3 in the near future!  THIS IS BIG!!!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 22:14 | 2368943 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Yeah, they can't have Australia, Japan, Europe and China beat them to it!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 22:15 | 2368946 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

If you are reading this then this warning is for you. Every word you read of this useless fine print is another second off your life.  Don't you have other things to do? Is your life so empty that you honestly can't think of a better way to spend these moments? Or are you so impressed with authority that you give respect and credence to all who claim it? Do you read everything you're supposed to read? Do you think everything you're supposed to think? Buy what you're told you should want? Get out of your aparment. Meet a member of the opposite sex. Stop the excessive shopping and masterbation.  Quit your job. Start a fight. Prove you're alive. If you don't claim your humanity you will become a statistic. You have been warned.... Tyler.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 23:24 | 2369037 GuyJeans
GuyJeans's picture

Reading this post at work

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!