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Gold in Q2 +15% To $1,850/oz On Inflation and Currency Debasement - BARCAP
From GoldCore
Gold in Q2 +15% To $1,850/oz On Inflation and Currency Debasement - BARCAP
’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,651.00, EUR 1,246.04, and GBP 1,040.85 per ounce. Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,636.00, EUR 1,243.16 and GBP 1,035.97 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $31.65/oz, €23.92/oz and £19.99/oz.Platinum is trading at $1,617.00/oz, palladium at $649./oz and rhodium at $1,425/oz.
Gold fell 0.41% or $6.80 in New York yesterday and closed at $1,642.50/oz. Gold traded sideways in Asia overnight and rose in European trading which has gold now trading at $1,650.89/oz.

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Hopes that the US economy is recovering and that the Eurozone debt debacle is over has led to increased risk appetite in recent weeks. This sent gold to a 2 month low yesterday.
Gold has fallen 2.8% so far in March. This has been attributed to Fed Chairman Bernanke denying that QE will take place.
Investors will be watching the fund flows to see if large institutions and hedge funds are increasing or reducing allocations to gold ETF’s which could influence prices.
ETF gold demand has remained strong and “sticky” showing that most buyers are long term and passive in nature and not speculators, traders or paper players who use the COMEX and futures markets to get exposure to gold.
Technicals: Euro Gold Testing Support at 200 DMA - EUR 1,239/oz
Gold’s technicals remain poor and prices are heading for their fourth straight week of losses. This is particularly the case in US dollar terms due to the recent period of dollar strength.

XAU-EUR 1 Year Chart – (Bloomberg)
However gold’s technicals in euro and other fiat currency terms are not as poor. Euro gold support is at the 200 daily moving average (DMA) at EUR 1,239.35/oz. As can be seen in the charts buying euro gold at the 200 DMA has been prudent in recent years. For those wishing to time the market this is another good buying opportunity.
Gold continues to climb the classic bull market ‘wall of worry’ and this has all the hallmarks of yet another period of correction and consolidation prior to further depreciation in the euro and other fiat currencies.
From a contrarian point of view, as long as the words ‘fiat’ and ‘debasement’ remain taboo in the popular press and media, gold’s bull market seems assured.
Gold +15% To $1,850/oz in Q2 On Inflation and Currency Debasement - BARCAP
Barclays Capital see this most recent sell off as an opportunity to buy gold.
With gold prices are at their lowest since January, Barclays Capital are buying the dip as they expect gold to rally around 15% to $1,850/oz by the second quarter due to currency debasement and inflation worries.
BarCap said it expects precious metals to be one of the commodity price leaders in the second quarter, citing the "resumption of the kind of currency debasement/inflation concerns that have been the big driver of gold and silver prices over the past 12 months".
It recommended that investors take a long position in December 2012 palladium, saying lower Russian exports should push the market into a supply deficit and bring prices "significantly above current levels" by later this year.
BarCap put a second-quarter price of $745 per ounce for palladium futures on the London Metal Exchange, versus the past four weeks' average of $701. Spot palladium on the LME hit a session bottom below $645 on Thursday.
OTHER NEWS
(Bloomberg) -- India Sets Benchmark Import Price of Gold at $530 Per 10 Grams
India set the benchmark price for imports of gold at $530 per 10 grams, according to an e-mailed statement from the finance ministry.
The benchmark price for imports of silver was set at $1,036 a kilogram, it said.
(PTI) -- Govt slashes import tariff value of gold to $530/10 grams
The government today reduced the import tariff value of gold from USD 573 per 10 grams to USD 530 per 10 grams, while the value was kept unchanged at USD 1,036 per kg for silver imports.
The tariff value, which is released fortnightly, is the base price on which the customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing and discourage import of gold to ease pressure on balance of payments.
The Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) issued a notification yesterday in this regard, an official release said. After crude oil, gold is the most imported commodity in India in terms of value.
Bullion traders and jewellers have opposed the recent hikes in tariff value as it would hit demand as the increased costs have to be passed on to consumers.
Early this year, the government had changed the duty structure on gold and silver from specific to value-linked, making precious metals more expensive.
The import duty on gold was fixed at 2 per cent of the value, instead of the earlier rate of Rs 300 per 10 grams. On silver, the import duty was pegged at 6 per cent, as against Rs 1,500 per kg earlier.
India, the world's biggest consumer of gold, imported 967 tonnes of gold in 2011.
(Bloomberg) -- Swiss Palladium Imports in February Were 1,097 Kilograms
Swiss imports of palladium were 1,097 kilograms in February, the Swiss Federal Customs Administration said today in an e-mailed report.
(Bloomberg) -- Swiss Platinum Imports Were 2,639 Kilograms in February
Swiss platinum imports were 2,639 kilograms in February, the Swiss Federal Customs Administration said in an e-mailed report today.
For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.
NEWS
(Reuters)
Gold off 2-mth low but heads for 4th week of losses
(CNN)
Gold Loses Luster in Face of US Recovery
(Wall Street Journal)
Indian Gold: Its Worth and Its Wait
(Wall Street Journal)
Gold Smuggling Redux in India?
(The Financial Times)
China and Australia in $31bn currency swap
(Reuters)
BarCap banks on gold as prices hit 2-month lows
(The Telegraph)
Hoard of 30,000 silver Roman coins discovered in Bath
COMMENTARY
(Forbes)
Bernanke Decries Gold, Defends Fed's Make-It-Up System
(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
Why We Must End Too Big to Fail—Now
(Resource Clips)
Gold Auguries—Fire Fighting
(Free Gold Money Report)
Turk Dismantles Bernanke's Misleading Gold Standard Lecture
(End of the American Dream)
10 Signs That America Is On The Verge Of A Horrible Municipal Debt Crisis
(Zero Hedge)
Gold Outperforms As Stocks Drop and Volume Pops
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Yes, its true, gold is going much, much higher.
Looks like the barbarians win again.
Those guys are a bunch of Philistines and a blight on the real markets.
me thinks ben protest to much about gold....to the point that we cant go on a gold standard because the usa doesn't have any gold....he must be getting advice from larry craig...
Barbarians know what is good in life. /Conan
www.pmbug.com
My god Crom laughs at your Four Fiat Winds
Your mailbox reads: The Muppets"
usually consider any bank recco as a contrarian indicator but this barclay's article actually makes sense.
I know......makes you wonder if you should side with the morons or the twits.
some would say that would put me in like company either way.
i will say that the recent piece by bix weir concerning the absolute neccessity for the ptb to control silver's price at all costs and the reason for no action taken by the cftc was deflating. Not that anyone doesn't know the price is being manipulated - but the implication that it won't end until it ALL ends bites it. i've seen how long and how far they can extend this tragedy already. i guess for the time being we just have to settle for the managed longer term rise allowed by our masters.
A case can be made for buying into Pt, but most people think Palladium is a venue in Hollywood.
Being a natural contrarian, I am much happier hearing statements about the barbarious relic having no value.....
Still, I am going to pick up another 10oz after the long weekend in hopes that there will be an attempt to move the price of gold down.
Likewise, but I think the trend has broken (temporarily) and will buy on the dip. More silver too, maybe even some old copper coins.
Barclays trying to sell muppets their gold. Bubble over
Pivoting into the Greek 3.0 paper myself........what could go wrong?
Italy could go bankrupt and that could have a negative effect on Greece.
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=36960#p36960
I wonder if this slight upwards trend confirms the prediction of TEMPORARY GSR increase I made on March 2 here:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/137665#comment-137665
If it does, it will give additional support to green charts in silver and gold price predictions:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/132799#comment-132799
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/145747#comment-145747
Very nice!
My view on gold is based on a couple of my own assumptions, that most people would probably not agree with:
1. There is many times th weight of refined and stored gold in the world that people are being led to believe. It is not a scarce commodity at all, but it lies in many, many vaults of the central banks. There is obviously a purpose to making people believe that it is scarce.
2. Because of 1. above, all suppression efforts CAN be backed up with physical (but most likely would not be because the FED, and my guess most likely ever other central bank have given themselves the legal right to default on anything they want with no recourse to their credictors) ... even though there si supposedly 100X more in paper than physically exists.
3. In terms of the buying power of gold versus dollars for commodities such as food and equities from 1913 to 2012, gold is more than double what it should be on a comparable basis ... so , fair value would be between $600 & $800/oz. This of course means nothing if the dollar ceases to exist, however it does meansomething if one has to trade their gold for the next currency in order to get food to eat. We will never control the price of gold. Some little office in London will control the price of gold in whatever currency.
4. Keeping gold above its fair value compared to other (useful) commodities makes it s losing bet for people to make if the fiat world stabilizes. People are willing to pay the premium because they see gold as a safehaven and they are willing to pay for security, even at a very high premium. (If number 1. above is true, then obviously gold is not a safe play)
5. If the world goes to hell and population is drastically reduced, gold may be the new standard, but its value will decline.
Hold dollars and see who has more purchasing power in five years.
Gold price is low given money supply, not at a premium as you wrote.
"there is many times the weight of refined and stored gold in the world that people are led to believe". Source please?
Gold has been proven not to be a safe haven anymore. Treasury bonds are as good as a garage full of pork bellies on the fourth of July. Interest rates can only go down from here, increasing the value of the bonds and the banks' capital. The only fly in the ointment is gas prices, if we come out of recession and usage goes up. That would increase deficits and bad checks to be written and lower the value of the bonds. What we need right now, for more stability, is more austerity and recession.
Mining stocks are cheap right now.