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Gold Roars, Treasury Bores, Equity Floors, US Scores

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With GDP on Friday, FOMC around the corner, month-end T-3 ahead of that, and a market so ultra-sensitive to any and every word uttered from EU leaders, it is perhaps little wonder that volume was lack-luster (and so was commitment with the lowest average trade size of the year) today. What is perhaps most notable about a day when Treasuries ended unch to +1bps and stocks marginally higher is the weakness of the USD (pulling back to unch on the week) and strength in Gold (and Silver). What also surprises is the dramatic rise in correlation across asset classes - suggesting a high degree of systemic preparedness for some 'event'. Equities leaked higher all night helped by Nowotny's nonsense, double-topped at around the magical 1340 level once again and ended up pulling back down to VWAP (what a surprise). Financials led along with Industrials (and Utilities!?) as Tech lagged thanks to CRAAPL's 4.3% loss. WTI staged a solid comeback from earlier weakness but it was Gold and Silver that won (as the former managed to test $1610 - its highest in 3 weeks). The S&P 500 remains very marginally better than the Long Bond YTD as Gold is catching up. VIX dropped from around its 'fair' equity/credit price to spur some strength is stocks and ended the day down around 1 vol at 19.4% as ES managed to once again close just above its 50DMA (with heavy volume and large average trade size once again coming at VWAP into the close) perfectly at 50% of the March-to-June swing.

S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) double-topped and ended back at Monday's swing low andVWAP support...

which left ES at exactly a 50% retracement of the March to June swing lower (and just above the 50DMA) with one of the lowest average trade sizes we have seen all year...

 

 

and an odd day with Gold bid - but nothing else...

and the USD dropped against the majors - pulling back to unchanged on the week...

 

Correlation soared today across asset classes - to practically 1.00 (lower right) - as stocks and broad macro risk stayed locked in step. VIX fell back from its fair level (lower left) but ETFs and equity indices in general (upper left and right charts) stayed locked together...

 

Gold outperformed on the day and Oil stabilized after early weakness (reverting back to Silver/Gold from two weeks ago). Copper remains weak...

and Gold is leaking back up to comparable YTD with ES and bonds (as the latter gets closer and closer to trumping stocks)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: The interesting reversion of the last two weeks between Silver and Oil got us thinking a little - seems like Oil in Silver terms has a 'tradable' range and what is interesting is that we are now at exactly the average ratio of the two since the global coordinated central bank intervention of last November...

 

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Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:18 | 2650621 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Silver and gold still way too low.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:37 | 2650702 mcguire
mcguire's picture

"some event"...  watch "I, Pet Goat II" for more details........ http://heliofant.com/

7/27

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:26 | 2650920 runlevel
runlevel's picture

isnt it My Pet Goat?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:51 | 2651217 mcguire
mcguire's picture

yeah, the first scene is based on the 'my pet goat' recordings.. check it out, im sure it will 'interesting'..

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:07 | 2652569 thewhitelion
thewhitelion's picture

Maybe, but if you've got a goat, somebody else. . .

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:21 | 2650631 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Government Whores (it rhymed too)

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:04 | 2650826 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

And I snores...wake me up when gold goes up 4%+ in a day. sheesh.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:21 | 2650638 mixle
mixle's picture

> WTI staged a solid comeback from earlier weakness but it was Gold and Silver that won (as the latter managed to test $1610 - its highest in 3 weeks)

 

Silver at $1610? ;-)

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:23 | 2650648 fuu
fuu's picture

We did i...oh.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 22:57 | 2651858 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Phat Phingered

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:24 | 2650651 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

What's this? Bankers being arrested??? Did I miss something?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlY-n88tD2k&feature=youtu.be

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:54 | 2650777 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

When they drag BernBankster and the 6 Giant-Dwarfs in chains off to the HoosCow for life and ALL their assets confiscated and returned to the victims. Then maybe justice will start to be served...

I know you've got to start somewhere but knowing these maggots, no one other than a few low-level patsies, will be perp walked...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:10 | 2651260 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

They are planning more tax hikes to pay interest on the "sovergin" debt incurred to bail out the bank bonds so they need some meat to throw to the masses.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rHxQS4Eu2w

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:25 | 2650654 Rich Bagg
Rich Bagg's picture

Cashing in massive profits on Whole Foods.  Should have listened to me Muppets.

 

LMFAO

 

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:28 | 2650674 Tinky
Tinky's picture

For future reference, you spelled your first name wrong: it's D-o-u-c-h-e, not R-i-c-h

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:09 | 2650848 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Douche Bagg  -  our newest troll,  ho hum

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:59 | 2651404 philosophers bone
philosophers bone's picture

Cramer, is that you?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:13 | 2651446 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Hey Dick Bagg...scan a copy of your actual statement showing those "massive profits" - other wise, print this screen out, and stuff the paper up your whole ass.

Get it...whole ass....ass whole.....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 23:16 | 2651908 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Scum Bagg

Dirt Bagg

Flea Bagg

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:27 | 2650665 falak pema
falak pema's picture

watch the Apple bean stalk talking to gold stalk : what I lose I promise you gain. Anything to stop RM and that dratted Google gravy train!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:28 | 2650671 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Gold failed a drug test, it's being stripped of it's medals.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:39 | 2650707 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

More like that rolled-up $5 bill in your shirt pocket failed the drugs test.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:45 | 2650746 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

+1

Bernanke was injecting it with HGH.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:35 | 2650697 kito
kito's picture

dramatic rise in correlation across asset classes - suggesting a high degree of systemic preparedness for some 'event'...

yes, tptb are preparing to smash the fools who think qe3 is coming anytime soon...classic pump and dump....goldman has been selling into this the past two days........they will gladly buy back when the tape takes a sharp turn south....................

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:43 | 2650730 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Anything is possible. Did you notice gold priced in Euro's? I didn't think so (up 18% yoy).

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:54 | 2650782 kito
kito's picture

just about the same as the dollar is doing against the euro.....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:54 | 2650772 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is a massive setup for a letdown next week. Bad GDP followed by Negative payroll report followed by no August QE followed by shallow dip in the market followed by Liesman popping blood vessels on his baldness screaming that QE wiill definitely happen in Sept followed by ramp up in equities followed by me listening to alice in chains drinking a beer sitting here writing this again for the next month.....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:16 | 2650877 kito
kito's picture

Fonz, you promised.....no more cnbc...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:21 | 2650897 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I was going to swear off it but this morning on their website the lead article was a picture of that guy Jim Oneil from GS. He looked very pensive, even struggling deep in thought in the picture and I said to myself "anyone who looks that pensive and thoughtful must be genuine". So I gave it another shot. Sadly I feel like that article steered me wrong.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:28 | 2650931 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Never underestimate the ability to fudge numbers knowing they will be revised downwards later.

Its like telling someone they're going to have a surprise anti-birthday party but refusing any details including the date.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:31 | 2650941 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am waiting for Bernanke to get up at one of those meetings naked and hammered like Frank the tank and just yell "We're going streaking! Snoop you can bring your green hat!" and as he runs away they cut back to the news room who tries to tell you how to trade what just happened.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:39 | 2650967 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Haha! They would. You could just hear Cramer bleating like a ninny saying wow aren't we lucky to have such a 'down to earth' Fed chair then yell "Go long adult diapers!!"

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:12 | 2650860 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

olympics rally

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:37 | 2650701 HD
HD's picture

Some "event"...

God forbid we should go five minutes without rewarding the sugar longs for blindly BTFD on every occasion.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:38 | 2650705 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

FB crushed.  $27.32 in AH

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:39 | 2650709 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Gold up a whopping 1%.

We could do without the sensationalist and inaccurate headlines like "Gold Roars" Tyler.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:42 | 2650722 CVfriendship
CVfriendship's picture

Poetic license to make the headline work...I'm good with it.  All "roaring" investments start with a 1% gain anyway....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:45 | 2650742 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

No, that's not what I meant. Its become a pattern around here.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:28 | 2650932 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Pretty sure it has always been that way.

Be thankful there hasn't been so much of it for the last 6 months or so.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:41 | 2650715 Snakeeyes
Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:44 | 2650739 brace_brace_brace
brace_brace_brace's picture

arrest them all http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=yFXIgvYldc0&feature=endscreen

all banksters are liars, cheats and bank robbers. Arrest them 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:25 | 2651477 Judge Arrow
Judge Arrow's picture

They won't be brought before this court, or any other I know of - bailiff, just who the hell does the arresting around here?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:52 | 2650770 Solon the Destroyer
Solon the Destroyer's picture

From the "I told you so" department, I'm pretty sure someone advised to buy gold yesterday.
;o)

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:56 | 2650786 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

How long were they waiting to use that headline.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:18 | 2650871 falak pema
falak pema's picture

WHO IS BOB ENGLISH, IS HE TD?

HERE IS THE LINK :

ZeroHedge Blogger Bob English outlines how Bernanke and the ...

LIBOR 2.0: Is the Biggest Manipulation Yet to Come? | ZeroHedge

WOW! ZERO HEDGE HAS A MSM OVERT SPOKESMAN!

HIS TITLE ON CAPITAL ACCOUNT SHOW IS : ZERO HEDGE CONTRIBUTING EDITOR...

OK I SEE THE FINE PRINT : GUEST CONTRIBUTING EDITOR...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:35 | 2650960 RSloane
RSloane's picture

OMG he's soo cute!

/throws panties at the screen

[too enthusiastic?]

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:02 | 2651022 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Thx for the link. Didnt know who this guy was.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 23:20 | 2651917 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

He's been on Capital account several times. It's a good program to watch every day. Comes out late afternoon every day, after the market closes.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:23 | 2650903 yogibear
yogibear's picture

With Bernanke's QE-to-Infinity the metals are their continuing march upwards. The Fed has only one choice and that's to print now that we know the government will keep borrowing and raising debt ceiling.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:25 | 2650917 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Frighteningly understandable.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:50 | 2651025 css1971
css1971's picture

Do you guys have a new title writer or something?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:47 | 2651204 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Gold options expiry tomorrow. Expect some "pullback" to max pain. Rip 'n Dip.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:35 | 2651332 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"Gold Roars, Treasury Bores, Equity Floors, US Scores"

 

These headlines are getting kinda creepy, and not in a good way.

[css1971 saw it first, my bad...]

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