Gold Seen At USD 3,500, 6,000 And 10,000 Per Ounce

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From GoldCore

Gold Seen At USD 3,500, 6,000 and 10,000 Per Ounce

Today's AM fix was USD 1617.00, EUR 1285.37 and GBP 1032.90 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1608.50, EUR 1278.31 and GBP 1025.70 per ounce.

Gold rose by $24.40 in New York yesterday and closed up 1.5% at $1,622.80/oz. Silver surged to as high as $28.45 and ended with a gain of nearly 3%.

Gold has traded erratically overnight and this morning in Europe but is slightly lower than yesterday’s close in New York.

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

Further impetus to higher prices may come from the ECB who are expected to cut interest rates to a record low tomorrow – continuing ultra loose monetary policy which should further weaken the euro.

Negative interest rates continue to penalise pensioners and savers in European countries and this will lead to further diversification into gold.

Financial markets are already starting to wonder about the solidity of last week's summit measures to tackle the euro zone crisis and soon they may question whether even looser monetary policies will help prevent recessions and sovereign defaults.

With Independence Day today (Happy July 4th to all our American followers, clients and friends), the ECB decision tomorrow and NFP on Friday, trading should be quite today but as we know illiquid markets can lead to outsized market moves.

We tend to try and avoid predictions in GoldCore as the future is largely unknowable and there are so many variables that drive market action that it is nigh impossible to predict the future price of any asset class.

However, our opinion has long been that over the long term all fiat currencies will depreciate and devalue against the finite currency that is gold.

For this reason we have long held that gold would reach its inflation adjusted high of $2,400/oz and silver its inflation adjusted high at $140/oz and the equivalent in euros, pounds and other fiat currencies.

Gold at just over $1,600/oz today remains 33% below its record nominal high in 1980.

Silver at just over $28/oz today remains 80% below its record nominal high in 1980.

However, we have tended to focus on the important diversification, store of value and safe haven benefits of owning physical gold (and silver) bullion.

Overnight, some respected analysts of the gold market have suggested that gold is likely to or will reach much higher levels in the coming years – between $3,500/oz and $10,000/oz
(see commentary).

We see no reason to change these estimates and would concur with Amoss, Davies and Sinclair that there are strong grounds for believing that gold prices will rise much higher in the coming months and years.

Indeed, given the huge increase in credit growth and money supply internationally we believe that these estimates may in time be conservative.

NEWSWIRE
(Bloomberg) -- Turkey Exchange Says Gold Imports Were 23.9 Metric Tons in June
Turkey’s gold imports were 23.9 metric tons in June, the Istanbul Gold Exchange said on its website.

(Bloomberg) -- Kazakhstan Raises 2012 Gold-Purchase Target to 26 Tons
Kazakhstan, the largest oil producer in the former Soviet Union after Russia, raised its target for gold purchases this year to 26 metric tons as it encourages producers to refine their output domestically.

The country plans to boost domestic output to 70 metric tons a year by 2015 and wants to refine all of that at a new facility near the capital Astana, Industry and New Technologies Minister Aset Isekeshev told reporters in Astana today.

The central bank last month said it planned to buy 24.5 metric tons of gold this year.

(Bloomberg) -- Deadly Newmont Protests Lead Peru to Call State of Emergency
Peru declared a state of emergency in an area of the northern Andes after three people died in clashes between police and opponents of Newmont Mining Corp.’s $4.8 billion Minas Conga project.

The government imposed the measure in three provinces of the Cajamarca region where Newmont plans to build the copper and gold mine, Justice Minister Juan Jimenez told Lima-based Radio Programas yesterday. Authorities will investigate the cause of the deaths, Jimenez said.

The declaration comes a week after Newmont was cleared to resume work that was halted in November when its installations in the area were destroyed during six days of protests. President Ollanta Humala allowed the restart by the largest U.S. gold producer after it pledged to build reservoirs to ensure water supplies for farming in the region.

The clashes are a result of Humala’s government refusing to negotiate with those opposed to the project, regional president Gregorio Santos told Radio Programas yesterday. Newmont is committed to talks and to the region, according to an e-mail from the company’s local unit late yesterday.

Police fired tear gas and bullets at demonstrators after as many as 2,000 people planned to storm the town hall in Celendin, close to where the mine will be built, Radio Programas reported. Some protesters were armed and shot at the police, it said.

“We renew our commitment to Cajamarca and to our faith in dialog as a bridge to achieve understanding between everyone,” the statement from Newmont’s local unit said.

(Bloomberg) -- Platinum Users Seen by Moody’s Moving to Palladium on Prices
Platinum users will probably keep switching to palladium in the automobile, jewelry and financial sectors, Moody’s Investors Service said.

Palladium will probably trade between $600 to $900 an ounce over the next few years, Moody’s said in an e-mailed report today. “Platinum has traditionally sold at prices roughly four times that of palladium, but today platinum sells for close to twice the price of palladium,” says Arvinder Saluja, a Moody’s analyst and author of the report. “That spread is narrowing as new technology allows end-users to switch more easily to the lower-priced metal.”

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

NEWS

Gold near 2-week peak on hopes for monetary easing - Reuters

Gold eases from two-week high in Asia - MarketWatch

Gold Set to Gain as ETP Holdings Rise to Record on Stimulus Bets - Business Week

COMMENTARY

Sinclair: The Rig Is Up; Gold will go to and above $3500/oz - Jim Sinclair's Mineset

Hinde Capital's Davies on Why Gold Could Reach $6,000/oz - Business Week

Amoss: The Path to $10,000-an-Ounce Gold - The Daily Reckoning

Golden Cognitive Dissonance - Zero Hedge

On The Inevitability Of EU-thanasia - Zero Hedge

ECB Meeting On Thursday Could Ignite Gold, Silver - Forbes

Gold Re-entering Monetary System - Resource Investor

RICHARD RUSSELL: The Third Phase Of The Gold Bull Market Is Still Ahead - Business Insider

 Silver Manipulated, and a Silver Exchange Holiday - JESSE'S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

Arensberg: COMEX Silver Futures Skewed Short, Potentially Explosive - Got Gold Report

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Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:11 | 2586526 tsx500
tsx500's picture

i'm getting a chubby just thinking about gold 10000  ! ! !

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:14 | 2586538 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

just tore through my pleated khakis.  

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:29 | 2586593 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

July 13th, Silver bomb!

Participate!  Buy one oz!  Buy 100!

Just....

BUY SILVER!

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:04 | 2586715 Kyron95131
Kyron95131's picture

have, will , and do

 

but don't forget all the ETF's are prolly trading at at least 40:1 per certificate (kyle bass thinks 80:1) since they own the regulators so before it explodes to said anticipated hights, im sure we'll see just as synthetic a drop in its value when people try to redeem thier paper promises.

if you buy it, take delivery...

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:59 | 2586859 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Gold has done nothing for about 12 months now ( well it has gone down in price). Yet you see all the time how gold is going to go up in price . Do people not understand that it will do nothing untill the banks want it to do something ,so all these people who got gold to stick it to the bankers ,well you better be nice , because wthout them your gold goes nowhere .

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 14:22 | 2587204 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

If your PM horizon is 12 months then you are the one who is "going nowhere".  I've been buying gold/silver for the last 16 years.  It has gone nowhere but up.   You might look into the concept of delayed gratification and get off the "trading" platform of thinking.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 16:31 | 2587470 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Here we go again. From the Rocky Raccoon sublime, to the Million Dollar Bonus faceplant ridiculous. Guess who gets the cream pie in the face for business acumen.

Hint - not the gold investor, but, probably Mister Facebook himself, Pimp Promoter of the century, His Royal Strokinoff, THE MIGHTY PAPER PECKERHEAD, i GIVE YOU - mdb ! 

See stupidity at it's finest below. Jesus, even a crack head isn't this stunningly retarded. 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 16:49 | 2587500 The.Oracle
The.Oracle's picture

Yeah, exactly. 'Even a crackhead'. Ever get the idea that maybe... he's trolling? I find his shit to be hilarious, mainly because people (see above) get so worked up about it. Read it, and move on hahaha (or don't even read it--whoaaa)

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 17:11 | 2587529 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

If you do not publically refute the stupidity, then, statistically speaking, a fairly high percentage of readers will assume there is an element of truth to even the most idiotic comments.

Yeah, MDB is a fucking troll most likely, but it is the responsibility of any intelligent being to publically berate the retarded poster. Then, no one gets burnt by assuming the logic put forth by troll - boy, MDB, is possibly sound, acceptable, or rational.

I always read Million Dollar Bonus. Like Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan, I want to do exactly the opposite of what he is babbling about. MDB is my chief investment advisor - in reverse ! 

ROF LMFAOL. Seriously. 

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 23:54 | 2626942 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Yup. Despite any comments I leave indicating I'm in on the game I feel a red arrow is mandatory as is an explanatory comment if I have the time.

It's all part of the immune response.

You may realize it's a vaccine rather than the actual deadly virus.

You still have to tag it & go through the motions.

If all you can do is laugh at the mockery of your own demise (green arrows & no retaliatory comments to the content, rather than the commenter) then the next step is obvious. If you are entertained by your own demise you will not be trying hard enough to survive.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 23:41 | 2626890 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

12 months means nothing unless you're greedy or trading options. If you're trading options all you care about is that the price is moving either very rapidly (buying puts and calls) or temptingly near it (writing them).

If you're actually taking delivery of gold all you need worry about is that in 12+ months you've got the cash-value back PLUS you've got no counter-party risk all along the way.

THIS is what the real 52-week picture looks like, rechecked every week, on a multi-year trend:

2012 apr 17 gold ROC trends - 52 week ROC - goldpricemodel

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:31 | 2586595 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

It's amusing to me that doomer goldbugs still can't see that US Treasuries are the true safe haven, whereas gold is a risk asset. While gold has  sold off over the last few months, the 10 year yield has been making new all time highs. Furthermore, these record low yields prove that there is simply no inflation, despite the whining from nerdy libertarians, and that our creditors are more eager than ever to build their dollar reserves. I am confused that Goldbugs and Silverbugs reject the safe-haven status of US treasuries despite their 20 year track record.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:40 | 2586632 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

You got some strong weed with that bonus

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:42 | 2586633 SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

Here's yer 20 year track record, mdbooby...

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au85-pres.gif

 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 15:22 | 2587330 zhandax
zhandax's picture

MDB, here is one that should put a smile on your face....Yahoo (in honor of the 4th of July?) is reporting paper gold at it's real value at the moment:

 

Gold Jul 12 (GCN12.CMX)
-COMEX

0.00 Down 1,621.30(100.00%) 8:35AM EDT

 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:42 | 2586643 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Furthermore, these record low yields prove that there is simply no inflation, despite the whining from nerdy libertarians, and that our creditors are more eager than ever to build their dollar reserves."

SEE: China has bought no treasuries in ~ the last year. So who, besides the Fed, are the buyers of treasuries? Let's here some names.

Without the Fed purchases of treasuries there would be no floor under them and prices would crash and interest rates would spike.

Without central bank supression of PM prices they would already be much higher.

You're slipping, MDB.

 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:55 | 2586684 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

If there is no demand for our Treasuries, then how do you explain the record low rates? This is proof that the world values both the dollar and the full faith and credit of our elected officials more than ever. This has been highlighted yet again by the fierce safe-haven bid for US treasuries during the Eurozone crisis.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:07 | 2586721 Kyron95131
Kyron95131's picture

the real estate under the rock that which you live must be cheap enough to afford you a connection to the internets.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:14 | 2586740 Hulk
Hulk's picture

To answer your question MDB, (and  I really enjoy your sarcasm!) Treasuries are a completely manipulated market and therefore the rate is artificial, not in any way reflecting reality.

But reality is about to re-introduce itself, and in a big way...

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:17 | 2586746 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"If there is no demand for our Treasuries, then how do you explain the record low rates?"

Baloney...

Record low rates are a result of what I stated in my comment above... The Fed is buying treasuries in enormous quantities. It's been reported here on this site that the Fed is purchasing at least 70% of new treasury issuance. If the Fed is not, who is buying them? We know that China is not, we know that Russia is not, we know that Japan is not, we know that EU nations are not, that leaves England, the Mid East, India, and some emerging mkts and they most are in no position to buy huge quantities of treasuries. The US purchases of Mid East oil are down but treasury issuance is WAY UP. Who is buying them?

The Fed is now in discussions about NIRP! Negative interest rates.

If the Fed resorts to NIRP, continueing suppression of gold will be a must. Otherwise the opportunity cost of owning gold vs any other asset, excepting other commodities, is a no brainer. Like it or not the paper suppression of PMs and other commodities is nearing an end.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 12:22 | 2586922 Geruda
Geruda's picture

For many years peoples could not be owning golds.  The fed which is having many many powers can be making the rules to be having changes to make owning golds or at least not having easy ways to be selling gold and buying gold to be happening again if the fed is deciding gold is being a problem too big for them to be having.   Even if the gold you are having in the holes you are digging in your back yard are not being found by any peoples who are wanting to take your gold away your gold in the ground will be having to stay there because nobody else will be wanting to make the peoples who are saying you can't buy gold angries.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 13:12 | 2587065 akak
akak's picture

Indians and their eternal love of the present progressive tense --- gotta love it!

I am wanting to be asking you to be telling me to be doing the understanding of, why is being you Indians always, always using the gerund (present progressive tense) alling of the timing?  Whating ising iting being thating ising making youing soing obsessing withing thising forming ofing theing verbing?

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 14:06 | 2587171 Geruda
Geruda's picture

I am being impressed you are having knowledges about gerunds and tenses that are present and tenses that are progressive.  The tenses i have learning about are making me be very hard to have studying.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 14:25 | 2587208 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

No shitting.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 15:47 | 2587382 4horse
4horse's picture

. . . appreciating your participation here, after 5thousand year of such faraway vedas and varietyoflife, Atman. Spice. am all the more so appreciating your everpresent tensing of . . .

 

 

time

 

 

july 4

knowing it was you, hindu, the so-called euro was first after-- Indian --investors who, as much dutch as the eventual first nations were east indian, trading company one-for-the-other__ no matter __one wampum being as good as another, rupee, am nonetheless left name&number with what's said, a certain sadness, when it's all turned out the same in what remains

mumbai
bombay

invading you anyway

 

 

 

nothing's changed

 

 

 

happy birthday i'm sorry to say

to either/or of whatever shore as thinks of its founding, Freedom, or yet to explore what's all the more so sadly said-- Independence --when it's never in fact ever been the thought fought for

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 17:20 | 2587545 NOTfromSanFrancisco
NOTfromSanFrancisco's picture

 

 

This was Googling Translating at its finest!...

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:32 | 2586794 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Never heard of Japan, then?

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 23:30 | 2626868 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Rehypothecation and printed money. The Fed purchases the long-end and sells the short-end. The sales of shortdated maturities go into accounts for which leverage is applied on the collateral paper.

Later the long-dated treasuries will be used for the same in combination with another trick.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:51 | 2586668 giggler123
giggler123's picture

US Treasuries exist as long as the USA in its current form.  A collapsed USA will likely mean anything issued under its raine will be null and void while the guy holding physical metals still does, until they are confiscated. ;)

In this scenario no one is better off...

 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:00 | 2586696 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Ooo you invented a new word. 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:27 | 2586771 falak pema
falak pema's picture

dont rant about the raine that falls on the plaine in good ole maine. 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:03 | 2586712 TrulyStupid
TrulyStupid's picture

You tell em... get your Facebook shares now before they go ballistic.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:05 | 2586716 Nathan American
Nathan American's picture

signed in just to give you the up arrow, /sarc always appreciated MDB.  It's hilarious to see the newbs not get it and get fired up over your post.

 

Nathan

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:11 | 2586730 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

It's well understod in Psychiatry that individuals incapable of garnering positive attention, seek negative attention as opposed to none. Would suggest that trolls such as MDB are here for the negative attention. Refraining from rating comments or replying to them is the course most apt to make them leave.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 12:28 | 2586936 Geruda
Geruda's picture

The negative attentions you are seeking with the personal comments you are having asking for censorship of thinkings you are not being happy with is making many peoples laugh because the comments you are asking other peoples not to do are the comments you are doing.  The word that is describing what you are doing is called hypocrisy and you are doing it.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 13:14 | 2587070 akak
akak's picture

I am doing the guessing that you are doing the making of your investment banking with Ing.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 12:15 | 2586906 Geruda
Geruda's picture

The speaking you are doing has much wiseness.  When peoples who are being on a cruise ship are looking at the boats with canvass along the rails the boats they are looking at with canvasses do not look good to them but when the cruise ship is sinking the same peoples are now looking at the canvasses with many wantings in their hearts.   The cruise ship that is sinking is Europe and the canvass boats are treasuries.  Maybe gold is being the foods that are stored in the canvass boat but it will only be good for the peoples who are having a way to be floating when are the sinking done.  Whatever is making a cruise ship sinking could be so bad it will be making the canvass boats to sink too and then the foods that are gold will not be much good eithers.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 13:19 | 2587082 akak
akak's picture

History proves you wrong.

Gold IS your canvass boats --- treasuries are merely another, equally crippled and doomed cruise ship, one built from only paper mache and lies.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 16:21 | 2587450 4horse
4horse's picture

History proves An Indian --with bells on their fingers and baubles round their toes, silver/andgold-- wrong . . .

 

bright shiny beads

 

please xcuse such yak yak akak: hold gold but not much hope

 

 

 

ask an indian, any indian, what's thousands of years old by which they've anyway always been bought&sold

 

untouchable

 

those for who might makes right especially when fighting for what's false,fraudulent&allwrong

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 17:23 | 2587549 Shazam342
Shazam342's picture

I guess you are not aware of the recenmtly ratified 'Ansel III' agreement amongst the banks internationally?  They just declared Gold as a Tier I asset along with T-debt.  Gold used to be lower than that, i.e. Tier III.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 02:09 | 2588049 4horse
4horse's picture

E pur si muove!

when they're good&goddamn ready for it to

 

otherwise . . .
le dernier cri
                     keeping up with the latest fashion statements and currency events___
T1
T2
T3
TB
or not TB, infected, after swallowing what names&numbers they feed their following
Tier II
Amschel III
T42&
Tiers, Idle Tiers

                 ___which is exactly what they know goes without saying, when monkeys are given words to play with

 

cri de coeur, mon amour
                         whose emotions in vain of pain and echolalia they do find so moving

 

 

and while laughing like hyhyhyHYEANAS

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:32 | 2586547 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

How much is 1oz of Gold in Zimbabwe $ today? ... see what I did there?

I am reminded of a statement of a Citibank executive after the crises started and a reporter asked him what IF the government let's Citibank fail where would the depositors money go etc.? The response was ".. that could only happen if the Moon crashed into Earth", it's similar with Gold going to stratospheric heights (like 10000$) when that happens we're definitely not going to be in a position to celebrate

..

or put it anotherway, imagine somebody living at the peak of a volcano and thinking he's smart by shouting to everybody else who's also living there, "that volcano's gonna blow!" but still camping the peak, well 1 day the volcano does blow do you think that guy who's been screaming about it but kept camping on top got vindicated in any way?

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:52 | 2586840 CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

But when gold was at $350 an ounce and went down to $275, everyone thought $500 was impossible, $1000 was what insane goldbugs thought, and here we are at $1600 and while things aren't the best we aren't living in a Mad Max world. $25,000 put into gold at $300 is looking pretty good today, no?

Gold going to $5000 or $10,000 from here would be like when it went from $275 to here.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 01:09 | 2588012 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I remember 200 gold.

And silver cheap as dirt.

But no, we all were blasted with the Organs telling us to invest in the 401Ks and the like.

Never again. We got out of the paper and moved towards a portion stacked in metal.

Copper is more expensive and harder to convert to cash these days. But that does not stop them from chopping up light poles and scrapping for cash.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:18 | 2586557 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If Gold goes to $10,000 just imagine where the dollar will be.

While it is not a direct correlation, if Gold quadruples most likely the dollar is going in the other direction nearly as far and as fast. Consider what that means to you and all that you interact with on a daily basis.

This isn't a plea for things to remain as they are, but rather a plea for all of us to consider where things really are going and how all of us will be affected.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:29 | 2586590 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

CD, if gold reaches $10,000 I don't want to be holding any fiat currency excepting enough to pay regular bills/food/taxes/other expenses for at least a year.

I suspect that if gold were to reach such a high dollar amount that we would see many extrodinary events regarding the government, banking, civil order, etc.

In addition I suspect that food/fuel/and perhaps energy delivery would be spotty at best.

Everyday life would be anything but 'normal'.

Got PMs? Food? Fuel? Sufficient medical supplies? Defense mechanisims?

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:55 | 2586663 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Agreed. You make my point for me. If Gold goes to $10k, life (suddenly) is very different here in the USA as well as around the world.

We must stop thinking about $5k or $10K Gold within the context of today's "reality". Economic, social and political life will not "work" the same way it does today if Gold goes to $10K.

BTW people rarely talk about stocking up on medical supplies, so thanks for mentioning it.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 11:00 | 2586701 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Gold at 10K sounds awesome. But, if a big mac costs 20 bucks, it is not much of a gain. Purchasing power is the issue.

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