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Gold Sentiment Improving - Market Looks For Signal This Week

Tyler Durden's picture





 

From GoldCore

Gold Sentiment Increasingly Positive - Market Looks for Signal This Week

Today's AM fix was USD 1,616.50, EUR 1,317.87, and GBP 1,029.75 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,618.75, EUR 1,321.43 and GBP 1,031.51 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $27.66/oz, €22.65/oz and £17.68/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,409.50/oz, palladium at $571.15/oz and rhodium at $1,125/oz.

Gold climbed $7.80 or 0.48% in New York on Friday and closed at $1,623.40/oz. Silver rose to a high of $27.839, edged off a few times, and ended with a gain of 0.98%.

US GDP results were 1.5%, which beat the expected 1.2% for the second quarter.  This hurt short term outlook that the US Fed would embark on more QE after their meeting this week. However, it still highlights that US GDP slowed sharply from Q1 (2%) and Q4 in 2011 (4.1%). Gold hit a high of $1,628.60/oz ahead of the report.

This week’s US data: Tuesday - Personal Income and Spending, Core PCE prices, the Employment Cost Index, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index, Chicago PMI, & Consumer Confidence.  Wednesday - ADP Employment, the ISM Index, Construction Spending and FOMC Rate Decision.  Thursday - Initial Jobless Claims and Factory Orders.  Friday - July’s jobs data and ISM Services.


Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

The euro is under pressure today ahead of the Eurozone business sentiment data (results -0900 GMT) which is expected to show further weakness in July.  Ahead of the Fed meeting, investors will keenly watch the meeting between Mario Draghi, the ECB President and Timothy Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, scheduled today in Frankfurt.  Geithner will first meet with German Finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on the North Sea island of Sylt, where Schaeuble is on holiday.

Gold held steady above $1,620/oz on Monday, as investors wait for the central banks from Europe and the US to give definite signs on their plans for more QE.

QE3 would be bullish for gold and increase the inflation outlook which would benefit gold as a hedge against the rising prices.

The public is now interested in the yellow metal again, with investors adding to their physical positions. Market watchers will take their clues from the data out this week.

More investors are trading euro gold than ever before and  using euro gold as the barometer of internal health of the gold market right now, says analyst Edel Tully of UBS.  Euro gold is up 9% this year versus US dollar gold's +3% performance. 

The markets await the Fed’s move.  Certainly some form of QE3 is inevitable whether it is announced this week or at the next FOMC meeting scheduled in early September.


Gold Prices/Rates/Fixes /Volumes – (Bloomberg)

The US gold futures contract for August delivery inched up 0.2% to $1,620.70/oz.

Spot gold prices have moved between $1,530/oz - $1,640/oz over the past two months.

The European Central Bank has its policy meeting on Thursday and after Mario Draghi’s pledge to do everything to protect the Eurozone it has fuelled expectations of more policy action.

Gold ETF shares have been contracting.  SPDR shares have been decreasing for a month and fell to 1,248.606 tonnes on Friday, its lowest level since the beginning of November. 

In Asia, Vietnam looks set to tighten their gold legislation.  Vietnamese and foreigners may soon be banned from taking gold bullion out of the country, and possibly even raw gold like nuggets and gold dust.  Jewellery weighing more than 300g would have to be declared with customs and taxed.

Permits to remove gold would require 15 days for processing.

Vu Ngoc Lan, deputy director of the SBV's Legislation Department, said the circular (only a draft) will strengthen the management of gold bullion and raw gold to keep the market stable.    

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

NEWS
Gold hovers around $1,620 per ounce, central bank meetings eyed  - Reuters

 Gold futures gain as stimulus hopes stir - MarketWatch

Precious metals close higher on Comex – Sky News

 At least three banks seen central to Libor rigging – Reuters

COMMENTARY

Schäuble view on eurozone at odds with US – The Financial Times

Weak Economy Heads Lower – Wall Street Journal

Fed may announce QE3, but not in August – FX Street

 


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Mon, 07/30/2012 - 07:47 | Link to Comment financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

just buy it

enough reading

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:07 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

DRINK

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:24 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Traditionally the barbarians have always drunken mead.

 

Thanks.....I believe I'll have ANOTHER.

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:36 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

This is for suckers

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

That's exactly what Jon Corzine said......right before his extended vacation to France.

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Long on Gold, Silver, Draft Beer and Cocaine.

 

Short on Ouzo and buggering young boys.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

I will buy as soon as they smash the price down again. It's predictable. By weeks end, Gold will be in the 1500's.

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 07:52 | Link to Comment milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

I'm still waiting for Merkel's NEiN!!

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 07:54 | Link to Comment yabyum
yabyum's picture

May my long suffering miners have some relief!

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:02 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

On May 8, 1931, the largest Austrian bank, the Credit-Anstalt (a Rothschild institution) which controlled 70% of Austria's industry, announced a $140 million schillings loss. The true loss was over a billion and the bank had been insolvent for years. The Rothschilds and the Austrian government gave the Credit-Anstalt 160 million to cover the loss but public confidence had been destroyed. A run began on the bank. To meet this run,the Austrian banks called in all the funds they had in German banks. The German banks began to collapse. These latter began to call in all their funds in London. The London banks began to fall and gold flowed outward. On Sept.21, England was forced off the gold standard. The Reichsbank lost 200 million marks of its gold reserve in the first week of June and a billion in the second. The discount rate was raised step by step to 15% without stopping the loss of reserves but destroying the activities of the German industrial system almost completely.

 

Nothing like a bit of history.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:04 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

History.. I've heard of that. That's like what happened last week on Dancing with the Stars, right?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

When there's a crisis, you need to lie.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

When there's a crisis, you need to lie.

 

Everything is fine.<----------PRETTY GOOD HUH?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

We are the choir, sir.

I think things have been stable for so long, the majority can't even conceive of what a bank run is. They don't know what a global financial melt down would look like, what it means.

They think nothing of selling their gold to stores with goofy men dancing outside for 10% of its full value.

The possibility of this kind of event does not cross their minds. It has been expunged from the culture. "'They' will always 'do' something about it" is what most tell themselves as they go on with their day.

This ignorance of economic history is helpful to TPTB here in the short term. Panic will not spread as quickly as it should. But the dismay, when they do finally get it (if they get it, folks may just explode in their loacal surroundings when they can't get what they need and never understand it) should be something horrific to behold.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

The slow descent into poverty, complicated by the ability to acquire pretty trinkets of little value and sealed with a healthy helping of company store debt tactics needs only the jackboots of fascism to seal the fates of most western peoples. 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Excellent observations...

"This ignorance of economic history is helpful to TPTB here in the short term."

The problem is that, in addition to the sheeple, the TPTB seem to have forgotten economic history as well.

How many times have we heard from TPTB "We have learned... We are smarter now and can manage the economy better"? When in reality they have learned only that all crisis are to be taken advantage of...and let the devil take the hindmost.

All of what we are witness to is not new but it is much bigger than their normal bubble blowing routines. Some soverigns will have a series of new governments, some soverigns will introduce new-old currencies, and central banks will attempt to keep the plastic fiat systems in place... to do otherwise would destroy their system of wealth transfer from poor to wealthy.

These currency wars are in their infancy. Years will pass before we see the outcomes.

Protect yourself with an asset without counter party risk, get popcorn, watch the show... what sense is there in running around as if your hair is on fire?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

Leaving out facts too ,like this bank failure lead to Austrian Bonds defalting.Starting a cascading defaut of sovereign bonds across Europe.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:03 | Link to Comment Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

QE3 will be ineffective.  Japan and Europe will out print the FED.  This is a full-on begger thy neighbor currency war.  The USD will strengthen relative to both currencies, IMHO.  If the credit markets implode, gold will be just another victim.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:04 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Gold and silver are the most manipulated of commodities.  If gold surges to $1800, you can count on the CME to raise margins 5 times in 5 days to crush the rise.

With fiat currencies on the verge of collapse, gold should be rising.  With world debt and unfunded liabilities approaching $500 trillion on a world GDP of about $60 trillion, gold should be rising.

US debt hits $16 trillion in about 20 days and US unfunded liabilities hit $120 trillion in just 3 days.   But gold and silver must be controlled to show that fiat currencies triumph all.  So the downward manipulation of gold and silver will continue.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Gold and silver are the most manipulated of commodities.

 

Dude.....it's tradition. Are you also against grandma and apple pie?

 

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

And yet gold is above the 100 day MA for the first time in 5 months despite USD at 82.87.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:08 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

max keiser:

Hi Max,

I thought you might find this interesting.

There is no techonolgy higher than fpga’s (field programmable gate arrays) – these devices are incredibly complex, and the coding is just as complex. They are written in a language totally different to a PC or super computer (the language is called verilog and/or VHDL) they dont compile code, they synthesis code.

http://www.fpgagurus.edn.com/blog/fpga-gurus-blog/celoxica-moves-futures...

Its also very expensive, as a single FPGA chip can be as much as $18K each,

http://www.digikey.com/product-detail/en/XC2V8000-5FF1517I/XC2V8000-5FF1...

These devices are the only things fast enough to guide a missle travelling around mach7 to target, as correction needs to be almost instant at those speeds.

With this sort of technology, your traders have machines that are many millions of times faster than the most advanced super computers. Why – because these trades are done in hardware, they are not computers. No computing, no software – no GHz, its a state machine – its instant, bar the delay of the travel of electricity. The weird thing is, if money and greedy corporations drive this technology, then the battle of the machines will start in the finance sector.

FPGA’s to date are only a US technology.

Steve H.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:12 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

"FPGA’s to date are only a US technology"  Get real.  And fast.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:17 | Link to Comment EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

They are already in use in finance (HFT trading).

 

http://www.celoxica.com/

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:21 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Let them have it.

I'll trade smart.

They can trade "fast".

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:31 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Good advice.....never be in a hurry to get your ass handed to you.

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:40 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

I was once. I was lucky to have survived.

This is asyncrhonus warfare.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

One of these days, a Jaime Dimon-type will be leaning back in his leather chair after a doing a line and while getting a BJ he will wheel over the power cord to his little black box and the plug gets pulled from the socket and the record player stops with a slur and scratch and that'll be that.

Silver and Gold spot decoupled again this morn.  Don't worry, the kitco widget will be revised so that they look alike in a couple of hours.  Funny how the number vs. open doesn't track the graph.  Nadler is a nazi homo.

Nothing to see here, except the fireworks factory exploding and screaming Chinamen with their heads on fire running every which way but loose.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Quite aside from the speed of a processor - x86, fpga, whatever - there is still the issue of bandwidth between the local system and that on which the trades are actually accomplished.

The only way to level the playing field would be to force all trades to be done via 1200 baud dial-up modems, with one trade per session allowed. That's not going to happen, of course, because the HFT machines cannot afford to relinquish the edge they have in communications speed and access.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment AE911Truth
AE911Truth's picture

Can FPGAs be used as a really fast BitCoin generator?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:08 | Link to Comment kill switch
kill switch's picture

Market looks for a signal??? Another bailout......

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JZiPv_R6lg&feature=player_embedded

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:20 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"More investors are trading euro gold than ever before and  using euro gold as the barometer of internal health of the gold market right now, says analyst Edel Tully of UBS."

 

Yup. It's starting. Au/EUR vs Au/USD. No article on ZH, yet. I will patiently wait until it's published...

meanwhile, stacking is easier on your blood pressure (careful, loaded question embedded) if you calculate in EUR - and so I stack and wait...

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

I've been using EUR/AU and EUR/AG in my models for a while now. They certainly do show better results than traditional large pairing groups. I've also seen good results using similar formula for other crosses as well as risk assets and in particular oil.

I'm not sure what it means in the bigger picture, but we shall soon see. Fundamentally, we should only be looking at risk in terms of gold, as opposed to gold being risk. I imagine we will see that again at some point.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:14 | Link to Comment silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Come on Silver!

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:20 | Link to Comment pbracken
pbracken's picture

Make you're fuckin' mind up, Zerohedge. Either QE3 is void courtesy of the market rally - your take for months - or it's presaging a big liquidity drive. 

I don't care which you choose. Just be fuckin' consistent. 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

this is goldcore, not (one of the many) Tyler(s). but I could also point out that markets are often inconsistent

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment pbracken
pbracken's picture

Markets are inconsistent, I agree, Sir. But analysis requires a degree of integrity. Zerohedge is in danger of banging the gold drum at the expense of any other consideration. Gold goes up - QE on(today). It goes down (last week), QE off. 

WTF is that about?

Get some piose, guys. I think you need me to write for you ocaassinally. My Guardian piece a while ago:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/18/amateur-trader-psych...

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Submit. Be ready to be rejected and not whine about it. Keep it short and tight. Verify your sources. Like any other author.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:21 | Link to Comment Biosci
Biosci's picture

Spoken like a scientist.  (Except the bit about whining.)

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

You might want to train your analysis skills on what ZH actually is and does. ZH provides information of all types, some of it requires the creation of competitiveness amongst opinion to increase clicks and traffic- they ARE a business. It is possible they function as a mis-information agent as well. 

ZH provides a stream of information, often conflicting, that you have an opportunity to pick and choose from. ZH is not going to save the world. ZH is not going to promote the revolution. ZH is going to make money. 

It is a healthy habit to include some pessimism in your data acquisition. 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Your problem in comprehension comes from your lack of ability to see things as dynamic instead of direct cause/effect.  Multiple events on multiple time frames affect price on any given day.  When Tyler (by the way this article is not one of the "Tylers") says "event a" affected the price of "object b" it was probably the dominant force that DAY/WEEK while often times (in the case of gold) we are talking about the MONTH/YEAR/DECADE trend.  Do you understand the difference in time frames?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment pbracken
pbracken's picture

I do undertand the difference in time frames you allude to, but ZH flip flops so fuckin' much that the difference is nugatory.

Let's get real here. ZH has an agenda. It's bearish equities. It's bullish gold. It's slam dunk amazed the Euro is not trading at equity to the dollar. It thinks Europe's a basket case - which it is - but fails to see it's in a better shape than the US. 

America is the biggest failed capaitalist state in the world. Markets have yet to realise it. When it does, there'll be money to be made. 

Meanwhile, ZH can spout its petty gold bug mantra. 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Biosci
Biosci's picture

Congratulations.  You understand the bias--well, some of it anyway.  Now you can read the information presented here through the appropriate mental filters, and act accordingly.

You weren't trading on Tyler's advice, were you?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

And now, you have revealed your agenda. See how easy that is. If this is the best you can do, analysis wise, why would anyone want you to contribute on ZH?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Hi and welcome here. Would you mind to point out some of your past predictions and show how they turned out.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

bearish equities: ZH exposed the HFT scams, among many others. it's making history, here. can't understate that. and makes a very good case on an extreme level of market manipulation.

slam dunk amazed the EUR is not trading to the dollar: first, note the sheer quantity of contributors selling the doomed EUR story, then consider that they can all draw on an immense amount of material written years before in europe, particularly in the UK and other countries that long agonized with the choice of joining a currency union or not. second, consider the low quality of articles that sold the impossibly happy EUR story in the US, particularly in the money markets. third, note the anti-central-planning and anti-central-banking views of most tylers, with a finger pointed at the massive all-market manipulations that are monetary interventions. IMO the tylers are weak on european politics for a variety of reasons, and since the issues are very much political, they are weak on european matters. but hey, it's a very small scratch on the battlestar

gold bug mantra: very simple, as long as CBs are selling since long and you are bullish on gold, you are speculating. as soon as Central Banks are starting to buy, you are saving. for turbolent times. the time for rain-maker mantras is over, it's pouring.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:26 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Or maybe both things are being discounted on different time frames as different participants buy/sell?  A little too complex for some to accept I suppose.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:23 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

RBA may follow Draghi's lead and print more Roo's:

"Reserve Bank of Australia governor, Glenn Stevens signalled he sees no limit to what it can do to prop-up the Aussie economy:

'We might find that, in an extreme case, the Reserve Bank — along with other central banks — would need to step in with domestic currency liquidity, in lieu of market funding. The vulnerability to this possibility is less than it was four years ago; our capacity to respond is undiminished and, if not actually unlimited, is not subject to any limit that seems likely to bind.'

That, we dare say, includes ramping up the printing presses."

 

This, according to Kris Syce in Melbourne.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:37 | Link to Comment tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

... just when I was thinking about buying. 

 

www.tradewithdave.com

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

As much I would like to see QE, there is a chance there is none.

It's going to go either way. As long you are ready for either way, you are fine.

 

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Gold Sentiment Increasingly Positive - Market Looks for Signal This Week

**************

I don't see where sentiment is improving-it's still at all time lows-which is good if you're looking to add because the bears have always been wrong at these points-with 11 years as proof-

http://bit.ly/MrHicF

http://bit.ly/SZnzVi

http://bit.ly/Nf5kG7

Bears were wrong at these points during the last gold bull as well-

http://bit.ly/NDFKAp

 

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Its the Vatican...
Its the Vatican Stupid's picture

Dave's cool.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Alert...... Last night gold and silver lease rates for the one year and six month rates both dropped to Negative -.55 or so. Kitcos lease rate chart does NOT show this drop but thier data does. The chart would give it away to easily,so you have to catch it in the data. But the increase in rates for the one year gold lease rate is + 1.0465,and it still leaves a rate of +.55 or so. They done this for silver too. I catch Kitco at this all the time. They are very decietful,and should be charged with market data manipulation. Every time this happens(negatve.55) gold gets hammered cause someone got to lease gold for one year at negative-.55 and just rolls the lease.

Fuck yous central banks,and fuck you's Kitco

Deciet lies and steal,is all yous know......

FUCK YOUS.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

So what is "Euro Gold" and how is it traded?

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